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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Forum.

A Corona virus will not be the big one!

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arirish View Drop Down
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    Posted: January 28 2020 at 10:04pm
I don't believe a Corona virus will ever be the big one! Like Sars and Mers the answer is isolation and infection control! All known Corona Viruses are too long and heavy (approximately 26 to 32 kilobases, extraordinarily large for an RNA virus) to aerosolize! Like Mers they are mostly left and picked up from solid surfaces like door knobs and transferred to mucus membranes not inhaled! Use sanitary wipes on surfaces that multiple people touch and wash your hands, wash your hands!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2020 at 10:26pm
Damn....

And there's me getting all excited....lol
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2020 at 11:42pm
Carbon - I've enjoyed the last few weeks here reading and talking about something other than Politics but facts are facts! China has done it again and though it will probably be worse than Sars I don't see this as a 1918 event much less a slate wiper! It's going to happen sooner or later, I just don't think this is it! Corona viruses by nature are lazy! I'm still focused on influenza or some completely new virus we've never even dreamed of!    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 12:01am
Carbon _ P.S.- How are things in Western Australia? I see your country on the news almost nightly but I'm fairly ignorant about it's geography! Are you threatened by the bush fires? Are you safe or are are you at the edge like so many in the USA?    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 12:16am
I hope you are right this is not the big one.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 1:20am
Weather here been great 35c

cool sea breeze in the arvo

There's always a threat of Bush fires,

but its a bit different this western side of Australia,

We live in a desert,or in the edge of one,

The size of Australia is massive,

Western Australia had only about 2.5 million people,in a space that fits Japan UK,and Texas....

Very very lucky to live here.....

Crime low,very laid back life style

we are 4 hours flight time from the Eastren states

3/4 days drive across the

Nullarbor Plain https://g.co/kgs/pQzrBC

Fantastic Drive i drove ,and took the train.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 3:39am
I can't think of a better choice for a slate-wiper than a coronavirus.

Droplet infection/airborne,

Rapid re-assortment of sugars/proteins on the surface for immune system evasion,

Looks like its cousin - the common cold - hard to spot clinically,

Can be very deadly - like Sars,

'And the clincher: Coronaviruses infect several species we enjoy close proximity with. Having another species resevoir for an infectious agent is a vital part of a wiper. Otherwise infections burn themselves out before the slate is clean.

Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 7:06am
Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

Damn....

And there's me getting all excited....lol


Still got the British sense of humor , I see   

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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 7:12am
I suppose as the older I got the less I have been worried about flu etc being a slate wiper. Most people will survive.

But what I do worry about is the knock on effect of key workers getting ill, eg if food stops arriving at the local stores, or if a city water supply is cut or contaminated and they can't repair it quickly.    

To my mind me this 'secondary effect' could be as serious (or more so) than the actual illness. This Wuhan virus looks like it could well be disruptive enough to cause major secondary problems.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 9:55am
Exactly!
Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote quietprepr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 10:06am
Interesting thread, I too am far more worried about secondary effects. In public utilities, we are already facing serious issues with staffing, we are seeing large waves of retirements and a rapidly aging workforce with very few younger people interested in the work. It is hard for us (even during normal times) to staff our water plants and keep our systems running. We often have to staff our facilities with workers on overtime due to staffing shortages. If we lose a significant number of our workers through illness or fear, we will see problems develop quickly.
Also, the chemicals and equipment we use daily are all delivered by truck and not stored in large quantities making supply chain disruptions a real threat.
I hope it is contained and burns out...but we are trying to plan for the worst.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 12:56pm
Yep. People fear the virus when they should be concerned with the way it will impact modern day society. The real danger is absenteeism due to illness, death or social distancing.

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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 1:02pm
A concern is that it cannot be stopped and it is here to stay forever. Possibly a new way of life. Albeit slow moving like a tank, but possibly here to stay forever. Each year the same old fatality rate of 2.9%. Like an ongoing pandemic for years to come. Once entrenched globally 50m - 100m die each year? A way of life will be social distancing? This could be worse than a garden variety flu pandemic. Whatever is happening in the next 60 - 90 days from now, well, that could be the new norm.    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 2:29pm
I honestly don't care about a

"slate wiper"


I believe that there's too many Humans on this planet

and we need to be "Culled"

About 75% of us need to be GONE....

A global pandemic is the fairest and best way,

We Humans are killing the planet....

Only fair that the planet bites back.....

Ying/Yang.....

If I die from it well and good,

but I'm not going to die because I didn't have enough food.....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 2:40pm
Carbon20 I agree. But I am going to be at ground 0 and I am going to SIP for 2 weeks till I know the family is clear.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 2:45pm
Absolutely, Flumom.....

I'll do anything to protect my Family....

I want to be a survivor....

That was a Great Show

Survivors https://g.co/kgs/K1JC7g



I wonder if this show had a good /bad influence on me....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 3:27pm
carbon20 I watch all the survivor shows and sci fi also to learn any and all survival techniques. Sorry but movies and TV has some good stuff on it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 3:55pm
Loved Survivors. I think I was 11 or 12 when it aired. I remember putting together a list of preps after the first episode

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 3:57pm
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

We have 4 different variants.


Someone in the FB group posted a lineage tree that showed 33 variants now. I’ll try to find it.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 4:18pm
Saw that too but you can't copy and paste anything from FB.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 4:26pm
Moved the thread to General Discussion.   

33 different variants? Exactly how do we now stop this new killer cold again?

Good grief.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 4:27pm
This whole thing is starting to make me wish we had an avian flu pandemic at this point. o_0
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 4:33pm
So... it likes to mutate, huh? Awesome.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 4:34pm
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

This whole thing is starting to make me wish we had an avian flu pandemic at this point. o_0


Careful what you wish for, A.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hoosiermom22 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 4:44pm
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

This whole thing is starting to make me wish we had an avian flu pandemic at this point. o_0


I just LOL’d. Literally.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 5:08pm
Me too.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 12:26am
Survivors on you tube, well worth a watch.


https://youtu.be/zAyjkaFYnzE

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 1:08pm
Originally posted by arirish arirish wrote:

Carbon - I've enjoyed the last few weeks here reading and talking about something other than Politics but facts are facts! China has done it again and though it will probably be worse than Sars I don't see this as a 1918 event much less a slate wiper! It's going to happen sooner or later, I just don't think this is it! Corona viruses by nature are lazy! I'm still focused on influenza or some completely new virus we've never even dreamed of!    


I concur. A re-assorted orthomyxovirus (flu) is the "big one" we should fear, but there are other actors out there that may yet rise up.

(a) bioweapons and lab-created viruses - let's not forget that some scientists like Dr. Kawaoka (Univ of WI) are still pursuing gain-of-function work with H5N1, H7N9 and other variants, and their labs are not exactly the best in the world. North Korea and other actors are also playing around with bioweapons.

(b) Ebola and other African hemorrhagic fevers - Uh, we still have a major Ebola outbreak going on in Africa:

From 22 to 28 January five new confirmed cases were reported in the ongoing Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. All five cases were reported from Beni Health Zone and had epidemiological links to the transmission chain which originated in Aloya Health Area, Mabalako Health Zone. The most likely exposure for all these cases was through nosocomial infection in traditional practitioner facilities. All of the cases were identified as contacts but were not followed up at the time of detection.

https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/ebola-virus-disease-democratic-republic-congo-disease-outbreak-87

(c) emergent pox virus - we have a very low pox virus immunity now (as a global population), and the emergence of a new pox, evolved from monkey pox, could be devastating.

Believe me....in epidemiology, it is always the bug that you don't expect, or didn't see coming, that is the one to worry about. This new corona virus was completely avoidable, and it will primarily impact mainland China.

Hang tight, I'm in touch with the top level folks on this one and will let you know of stuff as it happens. Cover your sneezes, WASH YOUR HANDS, and be healthy and safe!! Best, CRS, DrPH
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2020 at 12:03am
Chuck - What do you know about "Event 201" and how does it compare with today's situation? I've read a little about 201 and know it was a simulated coronavirus and it predicted an eventual 80-90 % infection rate! What's your impression?   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2020 at 12:30am
Originally posted by arirish arirish wrote:

Chuck - What do you know about "Event 201" and how does it compare with today's situation? I've read a little about 201 and know it was a simulated coronavirus and it predicted an eventual 80-90 % infection rate! What's your impression?   


From the website for Event 201:

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/newsroom/center-news/2020-01-24-Statement-of-Clarification-Event201.html

Statement about nCoV and our pandemic exercise

In October 2019, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security hosted a pandemic tabletop exercise called Event 201 with partners, the World Economic Forum and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Recently, the Center for Health Security has received questions about whether that pandemic exercise predicted the current novel coronavirus outbreak in China. To be clear, the Center for Health Security and partners did not make a prediction during our tabletop exercise. For the scenario, we modeled a fictional coronavirus pandemic, but we explicitly stated that it was not a prediction. Instead, the exercise served to highlight preparedness and response challenges that would likely arise in a very severe pandemic. We are not now predicting that the nCoV-2019 outbreak will kill 65 million people. Although our tabletop exercise included a mock novel coronavirus, the inputs we used for modeling the potential impact of that fictional virus are not similar to nCoV-2019.

(Chuck here) I've participated in some large bioterrorism drills, and know some of the folks who design and plan them. There are always a lot of assumptions to be made, including natural vs. terrorist/weaponized agents, natural history considerations etc.

Some of the infectious agents I've read about include Nipah virus (nasty bit that one is!), hemorrhagic fever (Ebola etc.), smallpox and the like. Corona viruses were pretty much off the screen until SARS in 2003, when we received a big wake-up call.

In all honesty, coronavirus doesn't "excite" me as an end-time pathogen...they don't tend to have very high case fatality rates, they can be controlled by careful case management & fairly simple hygiene (wash your hands!), and we live with coronas every day.

I'm watching this closely, what makes this outbreak worse than it could be is the stupidity of the Chinese Communist Party and their obsession with secrecy.   People a lot smarter than I am believe that the big pandemic event will come from China and will involve a reasserted swine flu. It makes a lot of sense to me.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2020 at 12:52am
Thanks Chuck! -I agree as far as the western world is concerned! My wife is an infection control RN so I wash my hands more than anyone I know, but here we have clean water and soap 99% of the time! Unless this burns itself out, which most Corona virus' do, it will be disastrous in third world countries! God help the refugee camps!    
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