A quick note on CFR and R0

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   It is probably not nearly as bad as some of you are fearing.   You guys are doing simple math by dividing number of diagnosed cases by the number of dead.   What you have to realize that probably only a small fraction of those exposed become sick AND become sick enough to be diagnosed.   The CFR calculations in the range of 14%-44% only applies to the most serious of cases.

If we have an R0 in the very low 2's that is great news.   That means we only have to cut off just over half the of the infection chain to contain it,  AND it very heavily suggests that a large part of the population isn't particularly vulnerable to this virus.

Yes I do think it is going to be bad, however my gut is telling me Spanish flu bad, not end of the world bad.

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DeepThinker Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List V.I.P. Member Joined: September 26 2015 Location: So. California Status: Offline Points: 3245	Post Options Post Reply Quote DeepThinker Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: A quick note on CFR and R0 Posted: January 25 2020 at 6:52pm
	It is probably not nearly as bad as some of you are fearing. You guys are doing simple math by dividing number of diagnosed cases by the number of dead. What you have to realize that probably only a small fraction of those exposed become sick AND become sick enough to be diagnosed. The CFR calculations in the range of 14%-44% only applies to the most serious of cases. If we have an R0 in the very low 2's that is great news. That means we only have to cut off just over half the of the infection chain to contain it, AND it very heavily suggests that a large part of the population isn't particularly vulnerable to this virus. Yes I do think it is going to be bad, however my gut is telling me Spanish flu bad, not end of the world bad.

cobber Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Group Joined: August 13 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6035	Post Options Post Reply Quote cobber Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: January 25 2020 at 7:07pm
	People with the virus are not being recorded accurately. People who die are most likely being reported. The figures are thrown out and it makes the virus look like a killer. CFR is most likely very low

KiwiMum Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29670	Post Options Post Reply Quote KiwiMum Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: January 25 2020 at 9:47pm
	There are plenty of reports of people being turned away from medical facilities because they are overrun, and being sent home. How many sick, dead and dying are there in apartments all over China?
	Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.

Technophobe Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450	Post Options Post Reply Quote Technophobe Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: January 26 2020 at 4:12am
	All good points. I admit my figures involve guesswork. But some parts of the guess raise the figure and some make it fall. The CFR could be as low as 1% or as high as 50% - that is a pretty big range. The top of the bell curve works out at 10-20% (or around 15) but that is not much better than a guess, when we have so little data.
	How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving.

pheasant Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Group Joined: May 20 2006 Location: Florida Status: Offline Points: 9851	Post Options Post Reply Quote pheasant Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: January 26 2020 at 5:18am
	Hey guys/gals, I'm certainly out of my league for this thread, but aside from the cfr/r_0/ and other scientific jargon, is it to simplistic to just look at the spread graph to get a "feel" as to how serious this is? I mean honestly, when I look at it for just the last 6 days do i need projections? I'm not sure what is missing, but has their ever been this kind of exponential spread before in this kind of time frame? I ask because it looks pretty dam serious, and when you add in social media (info coming out of Wuhan, including the nurse in the 11 min video, and the Gov. response to her video)....I cant come to any other conclusion than this is the calm before the storm. Don't get me wrong, I'm happily sipping on a nice cup of coffee and going to work tomorrow, so I'm not panicky just being pragmatic. If my conclusion is wrong, please enlighten me. https://www.cnet.com/how-to/coronavirus-how-to-track-its-spread-across-asia-the-us-and-europe/
	The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR

Technophobe Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450	Post Options Post Reply Quote Technophobe Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: January 26 2020 at 5:44am
	No, spot on!
	How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving.

cobber Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Group Joined: August 13 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6035	Post Options Post Reply Quote cobber Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: January 26 2020 at 6:14am
	You'll be fine. Most of this is due to the communist totalitarian system that is China. They under reported the cases. This is not a first for us here. China did the same with SARS and Swine flu. It has skewed the figures radically. Look to the western world for accurate numbers. If it takes off here then get worried. WHO is the best place for numbers Also don't believe the media, they hype this stuff too much. Twitter is crap too I think we are fine with this one. Its a bit of a powerpuff in my books

EdwinSm, Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065	Post Options Post Reply Quote EdwinSm, Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: January 26 2020 at 7:52am
	Or just look to Hong Kong. In the past their numbers have been more realistic than mainland China.