Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
all we need. Any bets on time |
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steve 101
Adviser Group Joined: February 07 2006 Location: New Zealand Status: Offline Points: 138 |
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Posted: March 07 2006 at 2:49pm |
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Steve do you have a link to this, please.
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drpepper
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 08 2006 Status: Offline Points: 71 |
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the pandemic virus could strike at any moment, leading to tens of millions of human deaths, or one
third of the global population. He added quarantine measures could
delay the pandemic for a few days but not prevent it, and that
vaccination would not stop people getting sick. guess we have to quarantine until theres a widely available vaccine? great. this is pretty devastating news. makes you wonder what the us would be like with less than a 100 million people. im officially afraid. just for the record.
i saw this posted in another location. i am guessing 2 weeks tops. please no one flame me.....its just a gut feeling. hope you are all laughing at me in 2 weeks. sincerely i do. |
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Chuck-91
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Going out on a limb. My GUESS is 2-4 weeks. Our guesses converge at 2 weeks drpepper, hope they laugh at both of us. Frightened nobody will be laughing anywhere for a while.
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Those who will not learn from history are condemned to repeat it.
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Sorry to say, I think you're optimistic. Nine days.
Hey! We should do a pool! Choose dates & times - have a prize. You gotta laugh. |
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birdwithoutflu
Valued Member Joined: March 05 2006 Status: Offline Points: 3 |
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In 2004, that same "expert" said that "up to one billion people could die around the whole world in six months and that it is highly probable that it will start this year (2004)" He's been wrong before. http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/10/28/pandemic.shtml |
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FluMeNot
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His comments were probably translated from Russian. The article was
dated the end of October 2004 so perhaps he meant a year from then. It has only been a year and four months since then......and for all we know the pandemic has already started. He could be right. |
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Flu me once, shame on you......
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Surely it will not reach North America for at least another three/four months.
Unless it gets in through infected poultry or mutated KFC's. |
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or it comes via airplane through via human.... who was ground zero .....??????? you mean he(she) took off 10 days ago...we are screwed..time to bend the world over and they can all kiss thier @@ses good bye.... |
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I didn't read the thread as discussing when US would get it once it was
pandemic. We all realise that that will be virtually instantaneous with communications as they are. I meant BF via migratory birds/imported poultry in USA. Pandemic is an endgame in all this. |
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Well, I think we are well along the road that leads to pandemic. I actually believe we passed the tipping point a number of weeks ago. Is it a pandemic now, no. Is it stoppable... I no longer think so. But we still have more questions than answers even if my hypothesis was accepted at face value. How bad will the strain prove to be? What will be the vulnerable cohort(s)? Will it be a rolling wave after wave or a tsunami crashing onto our lives? Will our other food animals be affected? Cows, pigs, sheep, goats, deer, elk... I believe all are at grave risk, but that's just my opinion, based on nothing but following Joe's theory with a bit more than idle curiosity. I made the decision this morning to finalize everything that I could by the end of this month...three weeks. But I had some good news... my parents bought a kick butt roto-tiller this past weekend so I can cross that off my last minute list and spend the money elsewhere... maybe bring in that TP that I have been stubbornly putting off. I have no sense of panic, more resignation... but I hope I'm wrong and would be thrilled to be so. My life is so schizophrenic at the moment; I am trying to organize my lists for finalizing preps while preparing to welcome my first grandchild into the world. |
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SophiaZoe
Take it easy. Enjoy that grandchild. If this world could get its act together quickly wherever it H2H's on pandemic scale, it could be contained to a region or country. That would be bad news for that region of course. The world though could recover and then prioritise recovery for that region at the expense of ALL others till eradicated. Of course this is a utopian dream of mine and would mean a lot of changes in world view and breaking the habits of a lifetime of a lot of greedy people (or 't**sers' in London English). However, resignation is a good idea. |
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Tired
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 170 |
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Thanks for the link!!! IMO this is proof that is dangerous to play the "guessing game." You guess wrong enough, then people will stop listening. The point is that nobody knows. This expert is proof of that!! |
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Better to be safe than sorry.... |
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Chuck-91
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Tired, Danger noted, Acknowledged. We must weigh what might be gained against what might be lost. If we scream " WOLF " and a few people listen to what is clearly labeled as a guess and prepare and then we are wrong, nothing is lost but perhaps our individual credibility. If on the other hand we scream " WOLF " and are right, people who listened,might live who otherwise wouldnt. Lives saved outweighs individual credibility. Everytime. |
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Those who will not learn from history are condemned to repeat it.
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Tired
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 170 |
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Chuck, I never said that there was something wrong talking about the
threat! I've been trying to get my family to listen for months now! I
was just saying that I think guessing as to WHEN a pandemic will
happen can become dangerous. If I keep saying "this is the week" over
and over and over again, eventually people are going to stop listening
when that week goes by and nothing happens.
It's just like the story of the boy who cried wolf. When he finally needed someone to listen when the threat was THERE, nobody would listen. |
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Better to be safe than sorry.... |
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GingerPluss
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 20 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 71 |
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I just pray the flu holds of for at least one more pay day!! I just got started!!!
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Chuck-91
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Tired, If we say "this is the week" over and over and over again and even afew people listen and prepare a little over and over and over again then by the time they stop listening they might be prepared just enough to live. If we are off by a few weeks or months then those who listened will still be better off then if they hadnt listened to us at all. I stand by my last statement. Lives saved outweighs individual credibility.
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Those who will not learn from history are condemned to repeat it.
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valgard1
Valued Member Joined: February 08 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 17 |
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Well the WHO is being very sneaky and tight lipped, I speculate that
his virus has mutated into several different strains, one in Turkey the
other in Indonesia, that's got the dot.govs in a panic. There ia
a hell of a lot going on behind the curtain, so I think the bomb is
about to drop.
But I still cling to hope that we have another 6 months before the whole thing comes home to roost on our doorsteps in the USA. China and Indonesia are the folks to watch... |
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Do Right and Fear No One
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Chuck-91
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gingerpluss, every little bit you do increases your % chance of survival by orders of magnitude over those who do nothing.
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Those who will not learn from history are condemned to repeat it.
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steve 101
Adviser Group Joined: February 07 2006 Location: New Zealand Status: Offline Points: 138 |
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araywood
Adviser Group Joined: March 04 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 206 |
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I think it jumped in indo. If it did the best thing the WHo can do right now is keep its mouth shut. Which it is. Now I would imagine there biggest concern is the infastructure .......they are planning. If that collapses we are all totally screwed.
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Fiddlerdave
Valued Member Joined: February 09 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 259 |
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Remember, people, there may be no "The" strain. Just like regular flu, an avian based flu will mutate and change from the opportunities provided by the billions of juicy hosts infected (us). It could also be that several Avian human high transmission strains will arise independently (just like regular flu). We will adjust over time, but it's a process, not an event. But with 6+ billion people, especially with fewer and fewer of them getting health care (even in the USA), disease will continue to grow as a force to be reckoned with. |
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Dave
"Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for us"! |
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Falcon
Valued Member Joined: February 20 2006 Status: Offline Points: 684 |
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I give it six months or maybe I'm just being optomistic, if it really has started I give it three to be honest
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Dejuan
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Hello, We have no indication of the clusters on mass scale at this point. I guess that we have at least 18 months to 36 months. This is my rational. Over the last months this is the the recorded movement of the virus in highly populated middle east, Africa, and Europe according to the WHO.
5 Jan 06 Sporadic cases continue to be reported in the coming weeks, but rapidly end. 23 Jan 06 the country’s 81 provinces. 30 Jan 06 2 Feb 06 backyard flocks in same province where human case detected. 8 Feb 06 first detection of this virus in 9 Feb 06 birds. 11 Feb 06 H5N1 in wild birds (swans). 12 Feb 06 (swan). 13 Feb 06 (at large commercial farms) in its are destroyed. fatality. Many of these cases occurred in areas with no reported outbreaks in poultry. fatality. 14 Feb 06 (swans). (swans) (swans). 17 Feb 06 poultry. 18 Feb 06 poultry. 19 Feb 06 21 Feb 06 free-range poultry, marking a return of the disease. The country had been considered disease-free since Jan 05. 21 Feb 06 (swans). In order for the mutations to take place we need hosts to be infected. We all are playing the lottery at this point. My point is that human to human transmission is on the horizon but still has to take time to mutate. Case in point is the the number of other "experts" that agree time is short but not immediate. Forum moderator Rick has been diligently posting these articles daily. My friends "who are specialized doctors" and I have been analyzing the data that Rick sends. We believe as do other experts the real test will come as this virus mutates in countries that lack adequate infrastructure and education to contain the virus. Places such as Iraq, Indonesia, and the continent of Africa are prime candidates for such mutations to take place. We believe the clock starts now. Personally, for the benefit of all of us the longer we have to prepare the better off we are. Once again my guess is 18 months from now. Dejuan |
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Ring a ring o'roses
A pocket full of posies A-tishoo! A-tishoo! We all fall down |
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outsidethecamp
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Hello all...
Well, once again, I can only say that we, (each & every one of us) is only as preprared as we're supposed to be. I post this after a terrible disagreement w/my daughter who is still living at home & thinks that her father (step)... & I are mad!!! "When is enough, enough?" She asked tonight..., in reference to our preps. Well, "when we finally have peace"....I dumbly replied. After thinking about this, I discovered that it's really not about having peace here on earth, or about having peace with 0ne's soul, but about about having peace w/ GOD that's really important. I marvel at how the saints in Fox's Book of Martyers" were able to raise their hands above their heads, as they were burning at the stake, & the flesh was melting off of their arms, & still, they continued to give thanks to the Lord, in spite of their physical weakness. All this is WAY beyond me. All I can do is rest in the finished work of my Lord Jesus Christ, & trust in it & rest in it. (Labor, therefore to enter in HIS rest...) No more work on my behalf (thank God, I'm so weary)...It's not about what I have done, but what HE has done that really matters. I'm done preaching for now... May God help us all.. Peggy in MN |
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I would say 2 to 4 weeks.It was two steps to go human to human 2 weeks ago. Now only one step thay say.
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Corn
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NOW! by the time we would have got the news if any it would have started yesterday. I say now in parts of the world. moving at the speed of as fast as various people are carrying it around on them. 6- 10 days and you will know for sure. Don't wait to know for sure. Start changing the way you handle the mail, money, fill the gas tank NOW. |
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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If the belgium story is H5N1 then it's probably statred
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ExaminedLife
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Peggy; tell your daughter to close her mouth, open her ears, and listen to her mother and father, because they have far more life experience and wisdom than she does.
Me thinks parents WAY overindulge their children in the U.S. today. I see 14 year olds telling their parents what they're going to do, all the time. It's quite sad. |
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Right now I am going to wait until the WHO announces what they have been talking about for the last 3 days behind closed doors with 30 specialists..They will make thier big announcement on March 15th..that gives them a few days between this meeting and the release date to prepare world leaders..and everyone better have their personal prep plans in place... March 20th the first day of spring here |
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Corn
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They will probably announce the winner for american idol or what paula abdul is wearing that night. whatever they announce will be extremely calculated to affect the response they want. so then accordingly people will do what the WHO expexts of them. Wait for the who announcement if ya want and other news. that is good. but to base any BF strategy wholly on what the who says or does is asking for the flu. I say they are meeting behind closed doors cause they are quarentining themselves and wont be out till its over. We are the ones who will have to live with the solitude of being locked up in our own homes for a mind numbing length of time so we need to come to the point of making our own decision. not the who? ask yourself. can you trust them? |
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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Still don,t think there is going to be any good news coming out of there.. and I totally agree with you about the WHO..best to keep on preppin and don,t look back... |
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endman
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HO will not declare the beginning of pandemic it will be left to the leaders of each country Not all the countries will get infected at the same time So why start panic if there are no symptoms. We need to go to work take our kids to school get the economy going
If everybody will just sit at home it will be worst that any pandemic So no big news from WHO |
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You know endman I fully agree with you. I think you have hit the nail on the head, so to speak.
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Reading this post brings a couple of questions to mind. Those of you who
think we have 6months, 18months . . . are you considering that an infected person could just get on an airplane and expose others halfway across the world. How are you comfortable in predicting months at this stage? |
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fritz
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It looks like Charlton Heston might not be the only one dealing with plagues next month!
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"I am only one; but still I am one, I cannot do everything, but still I can do something. I will not refuse to do the something I can do." -- Hellen Keller
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I need minimum 6 months to get ready but believe it already started and we are just the last to get it . I Believe we aren't getting correct information about how many deaths. In some extreme poor countries death is not really reported anywhere and chickens are the only source of protein this combined equals needed cover up |
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ExaminedLife
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RBARNES55 hit the nail on the head, regarding poorer nations, AFAIC. Poor nations have been massively under-reporting deaths of both livestock and humans because poultry is a major protein source, that's difficult and expensive to replace, in their diets. The last thing villagers want is for some international agency to start poking around in their chicken coupes, and begin destroying birds that represent their money, food, etc. Many asian governments don't want the world to believe they're not capable of policing their own back yard and managing their affairs. Then, there's the whole tourism issue to consider, too. |
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I don't think Who will raise the level, due to political pressures, we mions would just panic and cause so much more trouble than what we are worth. You'll know when LA or NY or Toronto, are hit. |
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Well-since they have discovered some human cases in China who had no
contacts with birds, I tend to think that we'll be hit by a pandemic in
the US before it comes over with migrating birds as an animal disease.
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outsidethecamp
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Examinedlife...
Loved your post!...(& several others as well) You said... Peggy; tell your daughter to close her mouth, open her ears, and listen to her mother and father, because they have far more life experience and wisdom than she does. Me thinks parents WAY overindulge their children in the U.S. today. I see 14 year olds telling their parents what they're going to do, all the time. It's quite sad. Amen, Amen, Amen!!!...I agree w/ you 100%!!! Well, why are we surprised, the scriptures say that in the last days, one thing that will be evident is that children wlll be.. "Disobedient to parents" Go figure? We're there. God help us all... Peggy in MN |
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mightymouse
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Muskrat Quote: Right now I am going to wait until the WHO announces what they have been talking about for the last 3 days behind closed doors with 30 specialists..They will make thier big announcement on March 15th.. Caesar: WHO is it in the press that calls on me? The soothsayer's warning to Julius Caesar, "Beware the Ides of March," has forever imbued that date with a sense of foreboding Yikes! |
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Nothing matters - Therefore everything matters
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ps36
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It was two mutations away a few weeks ago. Now it is one step away. That tells me that it is getting closer.
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so the bird flu crosses over to cats then dogs.man exterminates all cats and dogs then procedes to make pets out of chimps and apes.many years later the chimps and apes rebel ect. and soforth.
on the serious side.Prep,prep,prep just one more step.God Bless All |
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joseph
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And I ask myself do I have enough food so I go get 4 more cases tomorow. Got my solor light today that act as laterns. Phoned my daughter and the other side of the family and asked them to listen one more time.
snow in falling plan to get two feet tonight glad I got the wood stove. Dont use heat much on a tight buget spending alot of money. try to figure out how how best to survice, think it getting close. This has been going on for years but not like this, things are starting to escalate faster that I had hoped. prep prep prep come one come all do it fast for the price of canned food is soon to go up. do the math. supply and demand. |
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