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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Any ground truth to Europe 2nd wave new mutation

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Usk View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Any ground truth to Europe 2nd wave new mutation
    Posted: October 17 2020 at 8:07am

Ground zero Paris October nurse reported new strain the are seeing more contagious and more under 50 with cytokine storm. Also old antiviral not working anymore only steroids to reduce lung swelling is keeping death and hospitalization time down. Those virologist in this forum Any truth to this??

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 17 2020 at 8:30am

Reports seem to always start with healthcare workers.  Remember the doctor in China who reported it on social media because authorities were not taking it seriously/refusing to address it?  If it's true, I'm sure it'll be a while before we see it in main stream.  

May I ask where you saw the nurse's report?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 17 2020 at 8:40am

Personal friend who moved there because Husband was transferred there by the company he works for. The only thing she was able to send was this https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-16/hospital-bed-shortages-in-paris-as-france-battles-coronavirus/12750328


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 17 2020 at 1:19pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 17 2020 at 2:02pm

DJ-

Scientists in a paper published Wednesday identified a strain of the virus that has accounted for 99.9 percent of cases during the second wave in the Houston, Texas, area, the Washington Post reported.

The paper, which has not been peer-reviewed, said people with the strain, known as the D614G mutation, had higher loads of virus — suggesting it could be more contagious.

Though the strain isn’t more deadly, researchers said it appeared to have adapted better to spread among humans.

If I am correct this D614G strain did come from Europe...may be doing a lot of damage now in the US but would not explain a "new mutation" in Europe..

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 17 2020 at 2:31pm

Originally posted by Usk Usk wrote:

Ground zero Paris October nurse reported new strain the are seeing more contagious and more under 50 with cytokine storm. Also old antiviral not working anymore only steroids to reduce lung swelling is keeping death and hospitalization time down. Those virologist in this forum Any truth to this??

These seem to be some of the signs and symptoms of something  Hazlepad said in another post post regarding  second infections,

(This thread in latest news.....Covid 19:reinfections casts doubt on immunity)

Where Remaining  antibodies cause cytokine storm......

Ergo.....if you have had it .....you not safe.....






Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 17 2020 at 2:40pm

Covid is an RNA virus, 

Can Evolve  quickly, 

 with every new person it infects it changes......

That might be not scientific  but that's how I look at viruses......

Take care all   

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hazelpad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 17 2020 at 3:04pm

Hello Usk

The link you put is a general press article about the D614G mutation.    This is a mutation in the virus spike protein, occurring at aa position 614.    It has been  hyped because the scientist that initially reported it as "ALARMIMG" were HIV specialists not coronavirus specialists,  What is a significant widespread mutation in HIV is not the same significance as a mutation in Coronavirus.  They have since retracted the word "alarming from their paper" after seeing how the press reacted

Coronaviruses have better proof reading which most RNA viruses.  At present it has become  quite stable. Sequencing  research shows if you take 2 samples from different parts of the world they will only differ by 10 RNA letters out of the 29,903  ( see link below).  This may change if we vaccinate as we may start putting it under selective pressure.  At the moment it seems stable.

When a virus mutates, most mutations don't matter  as they dont change the function or shape of the protein they are coding for.  More often than not  a mutation does  harm to the virus.  We got lucky with the original SARS virus.  It developed a deletion mutation that could have made it less transmissible, slowing its spread and allowing us to eradicate it.


Here is a link in Nature ( one of the most respected science journals) about the virus and current circulating mutations and if they matter.  It covers the D614G mutation since this is the one you are talking about.   It gives a balanced scientific review and takes the hype around it away.  Also  please read the following abstract from the Nature article  about the rumours and false panic spreading about this mutation ( Quote is in orange and paper linked below it).   Lastly the jury is out on this mutation but at this point there is no scientific proof.   

Hope this answers something

Hz x

 Korber, Montefiori and others warned in a preprint posted to the bioRxiv server that “D614G is increasing in frequency at an alarming rate”1. It had rapidly become the dominant SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Europe and had then taken hold in the United States, Canada and Australia. D614G represented a “more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2”, the paper declared, one that had emerged as a product of natural selection.

These assertions dismayed many scientists. It wasn’t clear that the D614G viral lineage was more transmissible, or that its rise indicated anything unusual, they said. But alarm spread fast across the media. Although many news stories included researchers’ caveats, some headlines declared that the virus was mutating to become more dangerous. In retrospect, Montefiori says he and his colleagues regret describing the variant’s rise as “alarming”. The word was scrubbed from the peer-reviewed version of the paper, published in Cell in July2. 


Article The coronavirus mutating and does it matter ( Excellent read)

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 17 2020 at 3:20pm

Wow!  Okay so the next question might be is the vaccines in development and testing now be effective against this mutation?

I think it's time to break out the face shield to wear with a mask...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Hazelpad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 17 2020 at 3:49pm

Hi

To infect the cell the virus must first bind to that cell.  There is an area on the virus  spike protein specially for this.  Imagine the lock is the cell and the key is the part of the virus that docks.   All the theraputic monoclonal antibodies developed,  and all the vaccines target this "binding region, this Key region".  They bind to the virus key and it can no longer fit the lock so cant enter the cell.  The antibodies physically block the key entering the lock by getting between them.

Luckily The D614G mutation is not in the viral  spike protein's receptor binding region and to date this mutation has had no  effect on vaccine target or antibody therapies.

That may not always be the case.  

Hz x


https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 18 2020 at 8:24am

Thank you Hazelpad for the links and explanation. For what it is worth my friend in Paris says that this is different. Many in the COV ward there are alarmed since the symptoms are so different. I suggested it may be flu that is combining with Cov at same time. Over taxing the immune system. So far every one so sick under 50 did not get flu shot. Could this be what they are seeing?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 18 2020 at 8:57am

I didn't think covid could combine with influenza?  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 18 2020 at 9:37am

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/11/health/covid-flu-together-health-impact/index.html

"You can certainly get both the flu and Covid-19 at the same time, which could be catastrophic to your immune system," said Dr. Adrian Burrowes, a family medicine physician in Florida.
In fact, getting infected with one can make you more vulnerable to getting sick with the other, epidemiologist Dr. Seema Yasmin said.
"Once you get infected with the flu and some other respiratory viruses, it weakens your body," said Yasmin, director of the Stanford Health Communication Initiative.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 18 2020 at 10:08am

Dr.John Campbell had a video on flu and Covid [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-31xcWma9I[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-31xcWma9I I guess they would look for a flu virus...so a flu/covid combination-2,27 more deadly not very likely.

[url]https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/new-french-strains-of-covid19-less-dangerous/news-story/709fb154615163cd35bec654912a7525[/url] or https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/new-french-strains-of-covid19-less-dangerous/news-story/709fb154615163cd35bec654912a7525 ;

France is seeing several new mutant strains of COVID-19 that appear more contagious but less dangerous than the original strain, according to one of the country’s leading research hospitals into infectious diseases.

The strains, identified by experts at IHU Mediterranee Infection in Marseilles, could help explain why a recent surge in reported cases in France, as well as elsewhere in Europe, has not so far not led to an equally sharp rise in admissions to hospital.

In testimony last week to the French senate, Didier Raoult, the hospital’s head, said analysis of COVID-19 tests in the summer had revealed seven mutations of the virus. One appeared to have been brought to the city by people crossing from North Africa after ferry links were restored in late June after lockdown ended, he said. It disappeared again last month, to be replaced by other mutations.

“We compared 100 cases from July with 100 before … They are less severe, so something is happening with this virus, which makes it different,” Raoult, 68, told senators. “The mutations we have are a rather degraded version of the initial form. At least that is our impression.”

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hazelpad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 18 2020 at 1:41pm

Hi again.


Here is link to french article talking about the younger patients in ICU in Paris.   2 things to consider could be going on. Please read them both as they give different reasons.

  1) According to press release (see link) it is a numbers game.  Basically at start of this second surge around mid August, it was prominently  younger people getting it.  It did cause a rise in young people in ICU.  They go on to say these numbers were very small and appeared high and alarming when expressed as a percentage ( rather than case numbers), because they were few older people catching the virus as they were still self shielding.  

Now they say the percentages in ICU of various age groups is reverting back to levels seen back in April dominated by older patients.  They say the huge amount t of younger people infected inevitably have passed it to older relatives and the over all numbers of patients in ICU have surged.  This influx of older people into ICU has now diluted out those patients of the younger age group  who now make up a smaller percentage again.

2)That's what their official line is, but USK often what people are experiencing first hand is a more accurate picture.  If your friend is reporting first hand that they are even now continuing to see predominantly younger patients thats troubling news, and may cast doubt on above news report.   This is my thoughts so no links.

 Firstly we would need to exclude bias.  Is their a chance their ICU serves an area  where demographics are a younger population, such as a large University area, student accommodation and fewer older residents. So maybe older patients would be normally under represented.  Or do they work in paediatrics which I believe are up to 18 years of age in France.  Or are these young people taking beds filled before the second surge came so are catering for the early younger patients and not having room to admit the older patients which are now appearing in last few weeks. 

If this bias is not in place and  If they are working in a general ICU in a mixed population and they are daily admitting younger patients,  then that  is really significant information.

I would worry if your young patients are turning up in numbers in ICU that this might be a second exposure.  Some viruses get worse the second time around due to antibody dependent enhancement (ADE)  This would be concerning if young people had virus mild/asymptomatic and undetected in spring summer, and now have caught it again and it is worse the second time.   We talk about ADE in another thread which Carbon linked too.  

Maybe your friend is seeing the effects of this rather than coinfection with flu, or a mutated virus.  Flu hasnt really hit us yet, and there is no proof of a significant effect of a mutation in sequencing analysis to date.

Thanks for your info.  It is very worrying.  Hopefully just a blip but worrying development were it to continue.  Thanks so much for the info.

Hz x


ANALYSIS: How France's most seriously ill Covid-19 patients are getting younger - The Local

https://www.thelocal.fr/20200924/analysis-why-frances-most-seriously-ill-covid-19-patients-are-getting-younger




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 18 2020 at 10:22pm

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

I didn't think covid could combine with influenza?  

No, it cannot.  Various flu strains can mingle their RNA when they co-infect the same cell = this is called "reassortment."  SARS-CoV2 cannot reassort with the flu virus, they are different beasties. 

I doubt that there is significant mutation undergoing with this virus at this point, it is still a very "young" virus making the rounds.  I'll let you know if I hear anything different.  

Be safe, Chuck


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 19 2020 at 7:16am

Thanks for that, Chuck. I didn't think it could recombine. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hazelpad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 19 2020 at 1:35pm

In the UK they are saying the live nasal vaccine against the flu doesn't just produce antibodies, but also activates your general non specific antiviral immune responses ( prods them awake).  The theory is that these general antiviral responses will stay awake for a while so may offer some sort of non specific Covid19 protection.  In UK nasal vaccine only normally given to school children.  This year it is in demand by other age groups.  Maybe they are onto something, you never know.  Has to be the nasal vaccine as it has the live attenuated virus in it.  Intramuscular ones dont.

Hz x

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 19 2020 at 3:10pm

More news from my nurse friend. Of the 20 in her section 19 tested positive   for both Type B flu and Cov 19. None had gotten flu vaccine yet. So far she is only in oxygen supplement ward but their 110 bed ICU has all beds full with all on vents. The ages average 45!!  Two doctors are taking up the study to know what they are dealing with. They are also going to run a week long campaign to get everyone a flu shot. At least there people listen!  They pulled nursing and med students to go from town to township 

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