| PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL |
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| Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
August.... |
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Dutch Josh 
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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 Topic: August....Posted: August 01 2023 at 12:05am |
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Long Covid: If you have ongoing symptoms, you will be unable to donate blood in the UK. Symptoms may be intermittent and include; Fatigue Shortness of Breath Headaches Dizziness Confusion Brain Fog Pins and Needles Skin Rashes H/t https://my.blood.co.uk/your-account/eligibility/health/article/?id=01552031&title=Long+Covid+%3A+COVID-19+%28Coronavirus%29 - Long Covid: Organ damage for 59% of patients with long COVID continues a year after initial symptoms. 29% of patients with long COVID had multi-organ impairment, with persistent symptoms and reduced function at six and twelve months. - Replying to . there is, tragically, evidence of Covid being transmitted via organ donation. The recipient died, & the transplant surgeon also became ill. The organ itself was only tested for Covid after the patient died. Pre-transfusion screening is vital. link [url]https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/organ-transplant-patient-dies-after-receiving-covid-infected-lungs-n1258388[/url] or https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/organ-transplant-patient-dies-after-receiving-covid-infected-lungs-n1258388 DJ...due to CoViD being this widespread lots of transplants will become unable...Maybe over 1 billion people may carry the CoViD virus somewhere hidden in their body ??? We do not know because we do not want to know ! #COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #USA  Top #SARSCoV2 Lineages #21DAYTRENDS 10.2% XBB.1.16 8.5% EG.5.1 7.7% XBB.1.5 4.6% XBB.1.16.1 3.7% XBB.1.16.6 3.2% FL.1.5.1 2.9% EG.5.1.1 Includes ~16% Airport surveillance sequences| Track http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7 | 07/31/23 1/nand [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?xmin=2023-02-01&xmax=2023-08-01&loc&pango=EG.5.1&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?xmin=2023-02-01&xmax=2023-08-01&loc&pango=EG.5.1&selected EG.5.1 decreasing worldwide (?) But (a.o.) EG.5.1.1 increasing [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?xmin=2023-02-01&xmax=2023-08-01&loc&pango=EG.5.1.1&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?xmin=2023-02-01&xmax=2023-08-01&loc&pango=EG.5.1.1&selected ---------- [url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/07/who-epi-win-digest-1-influenza-avian.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/07/who-epi-win-digest-1-influenza-avian.html For those looking for a condensed version, today the WHO published a 14-page pdf EPI-WIN digest 1 - Influenza: avian influenza H5: its evolution and associated risk, which has been updated through early June. While their current assessment is that HPAI H5' risk to humans is still relatively low, the virus continues to mutate in unpredictable ways. DJ Very likely a lot of H5 spread in mammals/humans is missed due to lack of testing...basic stupidity ! [url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/07/korean-mafracdc-implementation-of.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/07/korean-mafracdc-implementation-of.html ; In the past hour South Korea's CDC and MAFRA have posted a joint release that confirms the H5 virus detected in cats last week to be HPAI H5N1. As a result, authorities have announced a wide-scale quarantine and surveillance operation.
- The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs implements quarantine measures as the second case of highly pathogenic avian influenza was confirmed in a cat .
In addition , a simultaneous surveillance and inspection of susceptible animals such as cats in animal shelters is carried out until August 8 , and wild birds ( including resident birds ) are monitored for a month in August in cooperation with the Ministry of Environment, focusing on the outbreak area, surroundings, and nearby habitats for migratory birds . * Strengthen surveillance inspections .
Promote biosecurity rules in animal protection and production facilities through local governments and related organizations to prevent and block highly pathogenic avian influenza , prohibit access to wild birds ( including stray cats ) and install and inspect blocking networks for poultry farms Through this, we plan to do everything possible to prevent the vector from entering the farmhouse . DJ...very likely H5 may be spreading in cats in more countries than Poland, South Korea...we are ignoring it... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: August 04 2023 at 7:58am |
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[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/articles/coronavirus[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/articles/coronavirus countries that do test often find quite a lot of CoViD around...so "the west" stopped testing...now hospital cases increase EG.5.1 often linked (if tested)... South Korea: Avian influenza virus detected in cat food. South Korea's agriculture ministry said it has detected an H5 avian influenza (AI) strain in cat food, and ordered its manufacturer to recall and destroy the affected products. DJ-like in Poland spread of H5N1 via cat food.... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: August 05 2023 at 11:08pm |
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[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4-95ReHiqY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4-95ReHiqY Kissinger 100 y/o trying to stop a US-China war...because he may be one of a few persons able to do that job... US: Walgreens showing highest Covid-19 positivity since May 2021. https://walgreens.com/healthcare-solutions/covid-19-index - WHO: 14.9 million excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. Some 68% of excess deaths are concentrated in just 10 countries globally. Middle-income countries account for 81% of the excess deaths. DJ, So if 2022 also had 8 million excess deaths...so far 2023 would have 4 million extra deaths CoViD may have killed 25-27 million people... - Flying Blind!
New wave uncertainties.
Driven by waning immunity, new variants, people mixing inside due to poor weather.
Limited surveillance, no survey.
Risk of 'triple-demic' - Covid + Flu + RSV.
Expert views: DJ...the reason I bring up Kissinger in China linked to pandemics...we need a change of strategy ! The bad/sad news is politics went out of contact with reality-like politics is failing in climate collapse. Is the "only value" profits ? Do "politics" create crises to make money ? I have given up hope..."learning the hard way" does NOT work when you are "exploiting" pandemics, climate collapse...go for war... Somehow that reality is denied by lots of (western) "politicians" producing empty words...ignoring real problems... Maybe the message by now has to change; We are NOT going to survive this megamix of failure !!! Bad leaders kill us all ! |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: August 07 2023 at 12:14am |
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DJ, A major problem in the ongoing CoViD pandemic is a total lack of testing...Sequencing may find some variants are increasing...However the sequenced (thus tested) cases may be linked to hospital spread... Also Poland, South Korea did see H5N1 in cats linked to infected cat food. With the H5N1-virus showing some changes that it may do better in spreading in mammals... United States: Summer surges in Covid-19 positivity. Evidence of previous surges in Covid positivity during the summer months. (Records ended in June 2022). This is why record keeping is so important! - France: Emergency visits increase "The number of emergency visits "for suspicion of #Covid19 " has increased in recent weeks in France Latest data, as of August 2nd, +26% in one week for all ages. DJ, claims EG.5.1 subvariant may be pushing up number of cases...however we hardly do have sampling/testing... So EG.5 subvariants may be one factor...often -since CoViD rules are ended- it may spread in hospitals, care centers... DJ-Will we be in a major healthcare crisis when schools/workplaces reopen in about a month ? We had 50-60 mm (5-6 cm !) of rain here last 24 hrs...temperature -for most of NW Europe- under 20C/70F...Another cyclone is moving towards China/Korea...Global climate is in disaster mode...In latest news-NATO-BRICS conflict more on the NATO wars around the globe trying to keep US/west #1... To end optimistic-I expect 2024 may result in more realistic western politicians willing to go for global talks on international top priorities...Present western "leaders" and neo-liberalism/neo-conservatism may be destroying the west...Sometimes changes are painfull... BRICS do want to avoid World War Three...even if insane western leaders keep pushing for global wars to make money in "defense spending"... Again-my view-the CoViD pandemic was avoidable if we did see better worldwide monitoring for diseases and "politics" is willing to limit spread in time...When "politics" only go for short term profits "saving the economy" we are in self destruction modus... Even the "lab-leak" (often anti-China) "claim" does not explain how a local lab leak managed to become a global problem...(The "lab-leak" claim also "claims" the virus was able to spread worldwide in a short time ...Western countries refuse to take responsibility for their own border health checks..Disease-Travel-Hosts has travel as a weak spot unless you go for good border health checks...just common sense !). |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: August 08 2023 at 12:42am |
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Past infection leads to more severe disease during reinfection, finds US study. 5.9% reinfections resulted in death, when the first infection was severe. Authors say the protective effect wanes after a few months, and the negative effects predominate afterwards. - Croatia: Increased surveillance of possible severe cases of bird flu in hospitals in the EU/EEA. https://hzjz.hr/sluzba-epidemiologija-zarazne-bolesti/pojacani-nadzor-nad-mogucim-teskim-slucajevima-pticje-gripe-u-bolnicama-u-eu-eea/ - What to expect in a bird flu pandemic: "Hospitalized patients with viral encephalitis or meningoencephalitis of unexplained etiology should be tested for the influenza virus, regardless of the respiratory virus (flu) season." - What to expect in a bird flu pandemic #2 "In more severe cases, a rapid progression to severe pneumonia, sepsis with shock, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or encephalitis with fatal outcome have been reported." https://ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/severe-avian-influenza-enhanced-surveillance-hospital-settings_0.pdf - Replying to I think they are just calling H5N1 "Disease X" so as not to alarm anyone. Traditional egg cultures have been made for H5N1, but not mRNA. -  AUG 7 UPDATE Convergent evolution of Spike in XBB.* family. Welcome the “FLip” (L455F+F456L): XBB.1.5.70 and HK.3 - Our most censored tweet of the day. https://twitter.com/CoronaHeadsUp/status/1688593203904102410… Someone doesn't want you to know this: [url]https://twitter.com/CoronaHeadsUp/status/1688638944789831681/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/CoronaHeadsUp/status/1688638944789831681/photo/1 DJ, A "study" next UK pandemic 50% of population ill, 1,34 million need hospital, 840,000 deaths...Possible H5N1 human cases now called "disease X"... Again schools/workplaces reopening may result in massive outbreak...(but hope to be wrong)... Policies have been a disaster..."economy/profits first" did result in destroying public health...now on its way... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: August 10 2023 at 12:04am |
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DJ, I can follow each disease..."not a problem any longer" if you believe main stream media...Mpox, CoViD, H5N1 and very likely lots of other diseases (Malaria, Cholera) all "no problem"... France: EG.5 responsible for 35% of Covid cases as hospitalizations rise. "Hospitalizations for suspected Covid-19 have been on the rise for several days. Nicknamed “Eris”, a new variant of Covid-19 would concern 35% of contaminations in France." - Canada, Ontario: EG.5 expected to represent 35 per cent of all infections by August 2nd http://CP24.com https://cp24.com/news/new-covid - India: Coronavirus cases in Maharashtra showing signs of increase. EG.5.1 variant detected in India. just as an example...More interesting may be how to get out of these healthcrises... It will be a combination of steps but I think the most basic step is governments/politics (finally !!!) start serving the people NOT the rich ! Non-sterilizing vaccines may make diseases worse on the long term. Yes-they may protect against symptoms for now... Everyone should watch this 2 minute clip from a Dr Fauci lecture where he talks about two of the most misunderstood concepts in Covid transmission:  59% of infections result from asymptomatic transmission  Aerosol transmission predominates. Understanding this is critical. Yet we did spent billions on vaccines...If we stop testing vaccination may have brought us -at best- a pandemic pause...on the longer run more immunity evasion... [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-international-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-induces-igg4-synthesis-to-evade-the-immune-system[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-international-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-induces-igg4-synthesis-to-evade-the-immune-system DJ-There is a very urgent need to find a better strategy to deal with the worsening global health collapse...In many ways the global health crisis may be even worse than the climate crisis..."Politics" going for global war -a global NATO to keep the elite in power- pushing is towards nuclear war... We need change NOW !!! --------- We will have elections here in NL november 22...and for the first time I may decide NOT to vote...If "left wing" parties have gone "pro-NATO" as "defender of democracy" those parties have lost the way... In the US "democrats" wanted war with Russia, "republicans" pushed a China-war...The US population deserves better ! If november 24 will see another "trump-biden" choice US politics is dead... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: August 12 2023 at 12:20am |
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DJ, Like with climate change also "pandemics" is an outcome of bad politics...If you do not change politics-investment in public health-there is no point in discussing pandemics... So far the "politics" reaction to CoViD has been investing billions into "big pharma"...In Russia, China often "big-pharma" is state owned/controlled...India may go for public-private-partnership...In the west "big pharma" made major profits-billions-without taking any responsibility for the safety of vaccines (etc). With part of the profits going to -political- share holders...a legal way of corruption-funded by big pharma paying/buying politics... "Never waste a good crisis" on this "profit based" "disaster plan" is only inviting more disasters... In the US trump did push billions of tax payer money in "warp speed" vaccine development...without balancing it with good rules for public health...biden came up with "vaccinatd do not need masks"...crazy....Western politics did not only fail to stop pandemics-via good border control...(diseases fly for free !)...they also went for "living with the virus"... A surprising jump in the Midwest's wastewater this week (http://Biotbot.io) Estimates on current active infections in the population: Midwest: 1 in 44 people   Northeast: 1 in 70 people South: 1 in 72 people West: 1 in 75 peopleand are the results of bad politics... Are western governments killing their own people to get the rich even more rich ? Dengue-fever, malaria-both climate/musquito linked are increasing in Europe/US... VIRAL PERSISTENCE of SARS-COV-2 in CHILDREN and BABIES !
IS IT THERE FOREVER?    https://thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(23)00115-5/fulltextDJ...CoViD staying in babies for the rest of their lives..."because we have to live with the virus"....I can not vote for such "politicians/criminals"! H5N1 Finland: 24 fur farms now have H5N1 bird flu outbreaks and Finland Social Security Minister: "The bird flu situation is serious" https://hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000009771318.html… Finland Agriculture Minister: "The bird flu situation in Finland is under control" DJ..."saving the economy" by allowing H5N1 in fur farms in Finland, Poland...at least these countries report on H5N1 in fur-farms...Ukraine a.o. does NOT test, NOT report... DJ, If you test positive for CoViD you still can get on a flight...have to go to school...beyond insane ! New #COVID19 variant of interest: EG.5. Formerly a variant under monitoring, WHO has now designated this a variant of interest. There has been a steady increase in this variant’s prevalence. As of 7 August 2023, over 7000 sequences have been shared from 51 countries. More information:  https://bit.ly/3fxWgnnHere in NL EG.5 subvariant findings may be hidden in the XBB.1.9 statistics... Replying to |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: August 12 2023 at 12:38am |
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part 2... [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-sars-cov-2-gq-1-is-one-the-8-newly-emerged-sub-lineages-that-could-be-more-lethal[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-sars-cov-2-gq-1-is-one-the-8-newly-emerged-sub-lineages-that-could-be-more-lethal The article describing also other new variants/mutations...NOT making CoViD milder... also ; Hij is er wel, hoor.
Ze noemen de EG.5.1 alleen nog niet specifiek, maar hij valt onder XBB.1.9. Not specifying subvariants (in time) is hiding the EG.5.1 subvariant "under" the XBB.1.9 major variant... #COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #USA  Top #SARSCoV2 Lineages #21DAYTRENDS XBB.1.16 (7.8%) EG.5.1 (5.9%) XBB.1.5 (5.1%) FL.1.5.1 (5.1%) XBB.1.16.6 (5.1%) EG.5.1.1 (4.5%) XBB.1.16.1 (3.8%) GJ.1.2 (3.7%) Tracker: http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7 | 08/11/23 We may miss most CoViD and H5N1 (M-pox etc) spread -in both humans and other mammals- due to not testing and -often- so far not major disease... DJ Again...after summer schools and workplaces reopening may see an explosion of cases... I expected that high spread also last winter-it did not show then that much in most places...Since then restrictions have been lifted even more in many places...it is just a matter of time...but I love to be wrong ! |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: August 13 2023 at 12:12am |
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DJ, from a history perspective pandemics are NOT isolated events... So [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/not-insane-cohort-americans-suddenly-asking-difficult-questions[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/political/not-insane-cohort-americans-suddenly-asking-difficult-questions may have some links... [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmYybJZo3fo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmYybJZo3fo As part of negotiations for Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel, the United States is demanding that Riyadh keep pricing its oil in dollars, not China’s renminbi or other currencies. may be related...Also [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/return-of-the-blob.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/return-of-the-blob.html ; may have links with pandemics... And yes; Tracking #SARSCoV2 lineages with "#FLip #Mutation" [Spike L455F + F456L] over time - Globally Total Sequences in 2023 : 1157 Tracker: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/TrackingLineageswithFLIPMutationsOverTime/FLIP… Note: Recent Epi weeks are incomplete; Includes seqs from Airport surveillance Updated:08/12/23 mutations/changes in diseases itself also are a major factor... ------------- Again-the main reason why we ended up in the CoViD pandemic is bad politics...The idea of "lifting restrictions on global travel" never was meant to offer free travel to diseases...But it as an outcome that should not be a surprise... We are now at a record high number of humans traveling much more than ever before...eating lots of animals-also another record ! If "disease-transport-host" we may have a record high number of animals kept as food...both those animals and humans transport themselves, mixing diseases to further spread those diseases where we live... If "politics" simply denies simple facts-because "the economy" needs lots of hosts, transport, humans...than in fact politics is asking for climate collapse, pandemics...wars... ------------ Finland: H5N1 bird flu not airborne - yet. "It was found that the virus does not spread through the air, but when the virus mutates, this is one of the properties that it may develop." https://pandemicresponse.fi/post/the-methods-developed-for-pandemic-response-are-already-utilized-for-h5n1-avian-influenza-virus So H5N1 is next ? ON TOP !!!! of CoViD ???? [url]https://www.insider.com/august-flu-vs-covid-infection-rate-2023-8[/url] or https://www.insider.com/august-flu-vs-covid-infection-rate-2023-8 On the H5N1 study [url]https://www.pandemicresponse.fi/post/the-methods-developed-for-pandemic-response-are-already-utilized-for-h5n1-avian-influenza-virus[/url] or https://www.pandemicresponse.fi/post/the-methods-developed-for-pandemic-response-are-already-utilized-for-h5n1-avian-influenza-virus The H5N1 avian influenza virus is now spreading at an alarming rate. The virus has been known for almost 30 years and it has occurred in birds in waves as epidemics, especially in Asia. During the last three years, the virus has been circulating in Europe as well, and infections in wild birds have spread strongly in the continent. H5N1 infections have also been discovered in wild mammals, and at the end of last year in Spain, also in farm minks. The virus can therefore be transmitted from birds to mammals. At the moment, the genome of the H5N1 virus is closely monitored for mutations, and how it affects the spread routes of the virus. Fortunately, this is the reason why the E3 project was started in the first place and what the project has researched over the past two years: responding to pandemics. From that angle, the situation is much better now than before the COVID-19 pandemic. We know how to prepare and focus on matters that are significant in terms of the spread of the disease, such as the continuous monitoring of the virus' ability to transform and the study of the routes of spread."Without the methods developed already in the E3 project, we would not be able to react at this speed to this situation, which at worst could potentially lead to a new pandemic," says Tarja Sironen, Finland's leading virologist (University of Helsinki) and Researcher of the E3 project. DJ...we have to stop fur-farms...but there is not agreement on that even....We have to ACT ! not RE-ACT !!! When you see a storm coming it may be wise to do something before it starts raining...Do we "act" when H5N1 starts spreading in humans ? Or when a coinfection with H1/H2/H3 and H5N1 results in a new flu type ? The basic problem is the way we think of money, economy...Do we go for profits or survival ? DJ..when you look at the "present global situation" the answer is clear; "We" go for profits...at the cost of survival... ----------- Can we "survive" ? NO !!!! The main question by now is what will kill us... Maybe in a very optimistic scenario some people may be able to survive...there may be some "future for humanity"... What is already killing us is a MIX !!! -Climate change is already killing lots of people...in "wildfires", floodings, storms, heatwaves... -CoViD may have killed between 25 and 40 million people ??? Since we stopped testing excess deaths are no longer linked to CoViD in the "official story"...Blame the victim...NOT the system... -Wars are an increasing killer...Of course US gun violence is NOT seen as a US civil war...killing over 40,000 people per year...The Ukraine-biden-war did see hundreds of thousends killed...lots of other wars are ongoing...but "not news"... DJ, Starvation may increase...the NATO expansion war in Ukraine will result in higher food and energy costs for Europe...We did not have a major famine in Europe since the 1940's...(before, during and shortly after W.W.2 we did see massive starvation from Ukraine-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor Russia (a.o. battle of Leningrad [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Leningrad#Effect_on_the_city[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Leningrad#Effect_on_the_city ; The 872 days of the siege caused extreme famine in the Leningrad region through disruption of utilities, water, energy and food supplies. This resulted in the deaths of up to 1,500,000[77] soldiers and civilians and the evacuation of 1,400,000 more (mainly women and children), many of whom died during evacuation due to starvation and bombardment.[1][2] DJ...Russia did beat nazi's...will beat nato...) Germany [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_in_occupied_Germany#Captured_German_soldiers[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_in_occupied_Germany#Captured_German_soldiers DJ-some estimates claim 200,000 Germans starved shortly after W.W.2 (till 1948) [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II#Impact[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II#Impact ; Estimates for the total number of casualties in the war vary, because many deaths went unrecorded.[360] Most suggest that some 60 million people died in the war, including about 20 million military personnel and 40 million civilians.[361][362][363] Many of the civilians died because of deliberate genocide, massacres, mass bombings, disease, and starvation. DJ, Estimates on Spanish Flu deaths vary from 20 up to 100 million...Millions may have died in India, Dutch East Indies...never were included in the "official" statistics (since under the apartheid-rules they were not a "citizen" but a "subject" of the colonizing power...). Golbal popualation in 1918 may have been around 2 billion...so if 100 million people died it would be 5% of the global population... Where are we now ? Over 8 billion people-most of them living in urban area's with just-in-time delivery of supplies ...If 5% of them would die it would be 400 million deaths... DJ-this is an OPTIMISTIC !!! scenario given the background...The 2020's are not the 1918-29 time... -In 1918 people believed in a "god given order"...rulers ruled or faced revolution...A basic problem in 2023 is a total lack of trust, credibility of "rulers" in lots of countries... -In 1918 most of the world still lived close to the land...food was not a major problem...The over 8 billion people in 2023 live far away from food sources... -In 1918 logistics were short distance often...certainly for essentials (colonial goods were long distance). In 2023 logistics depend on the internet... DJ-The internet is becoming more and more a weak spot...One can wait for a major "internet crisis"...You do not need a cyber attack for that...of course you may blame cyber-attacks...but the internet itself has to much weak points...it will crash-sooner or later- on a very large scale. We do see smaller internet "problems" disrupting banking or public transport (trains), stock exchange...It is just another crisis waiting to happen... Of course currency-crises (collapse of the US$, € ) only further "fits in" with a "perfect storm"... [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox ; The Fermi paradox is the discrepancy between the lack of conclusive evidence of advanced extraterrestrial life and the apparently high likelihood of its existence.[1][2] As a 2015 article put it, "If life is so easy, someone from somewhere must have come calling by now."[3] In the end "our tendency" for self destruction is killing us...And of course one may blame "politics" but it is one part...Group behavior, doing what others do-even when one knows it is disruptive on the long run...(smoking, alcohol-overuse, cars...) also gives all of us a responsibility... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: August 15 2023 at 1:10am |
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DJ, Several countries -a.o. UK- see increase of CoViD-cases...however bad testing/ignorance may hide a realistic view in many places. [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-researchers-worried-about-new-sars-cov-2-variant-first-identified-in-israel-and-now-in-denmark-that-could-be-called-the-ba-6-variant[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-researchers-worried-about-new-sars-cov-2-variant-first-identified-in-israel-and-now-in-denmark-that-could-be-called-the-ba-6-variant - How wild can it gets?
One of our labs in Israel just uploaded a sample to @GISAID (EPI_ISL_18096761) from a patient which is not chronic nor infected by one (mans able to transmit inter host).
It's so wild I had to consult with some colleagues(*) to analyze if it's not BA.6... - Thank you #VariantTrackers @LongDesertTrain and @shay_fleishon! A "BA.x drifter" lineage identified from #Israel and #Denmark. On time for another SGTF flip? Following this closely  twitter.com/LongDesertTrai…DJ, Just like some EG.5 variants this BA.6 may have some mutations increasing both; -evading immunity -ACE-2 receptor binding "better" (for the virus...NOT for us...) Some new variants may be the outcome of chronic human cases but maybe also have links with (chronic ???) CoViD in mammals (non-human ???).... A total lack of testing-with the outcome less sequencing-is making a good view impossible...  DOUBLING HOSPITALIZATIONS & ICU for #COVID19 surging in NYC & NY state. This official data, up to Aug 10th, is very worrisome. HHS data also showing pediatric hospitalizations also increasing. The new #EG5 variant concurrently surging. Please #MaskUp & add #HEPA #ventiliation DJ, in many countries it may be hard to even get tested.... [url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/08/argentina-senasa-confirms-h5n1-sea-lion.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/08/argentina-senasa-confirms-h5n1-sea-lion.html Lack of (animal) testing also may increase spread of H5N1 (in both human and non-human hosts). [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2023/08/articles/animals/cats/cyprus-cat-deaths/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2023/08/articles/animals/cats/cyprus-cat-deaths/ related to H5N1 in cats in Poland, South Korea-there catfood was infected with H5N1. DJ- -Climate disasters may get even worse... - -Wars may even escalate further...Good news Niger/Africa so far seem to avoid another war...However in/around both Ukraine and Syria fighting may get worse... -In the US "everything" seems to become "political" - making dealing with ANY problem impossible... -NATO is spending trillions on insane wars-by increasing further their debts... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: August 16 2023 at 1:50am |
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DJ-may describe more than "UK only" [url]https://www.bmj.com/content/382/bmj.p1885[/url] or https://www.bmj.com/content/382/bmj.p1885 ;
It is reasonably certain that we have entered another covid-19 wave, writes Christina Pagel. But what are the implications? There are very few ways now to track the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England since the end of wastewater monitoring in March 2022, the end of the Office for National Statistics Covid-19 Infection Survey in March 2023, and the gradual reduction of SARS-CoV-2 testing in hospitals since August 2022.123 However, all indications are that prevalence reached its lowest level this June/July since the summer of 2020. Weekly deaths with covid on the death certificate from that period are at the lowest recorded level since the start of the pandemic.4 But since the start of July 2023, daily hospital admissions with covid have been increasing (more than doubled as at 4 August compared to four weeks earlier), and the number of patients in hospital primarily because of covid has also doubled in that time.56 Secondary indicators such as the Zoe Symptom Tracker app and Google Trends of searches for covid-19 symptoms have also been increasing since early July.78 So it is reasonably certain that we have entered another covid-19 wave. But what are the implications? While 2022 saw three enormous covid-19 waves by August, driven by different Omicron variants (BA.1 in January, BA.2 in March, and BA.5 in July, peaks 6-8% prevalence9), followed by two more waves in October and December, 2023 has been quieter so far. January saw high prevalence from the winter 2022/2023 wave (peak 4% prevalence) and a smaller wave in March 2023 (likely about 3% peak prevalence), but little else until now.1011 In the absence of any mitigations, this is likely because the variants since BA.5 (mostly BQ and XBB strains) have not been sufficiently different to drive very large waves in the presence of a highly vaccinated and highly previously infected population. The variants currently increasing in the UK are still XBB Omicron substrains, and on their own there is no reason to think they will cause a large wave.12 However almost all under 50s have not had a vaccine dose for 18 months, and most under 75s not for a year.13 Protection from previous infection will also be waning in the absence of a large wave for several months. It is thus likely that this wave is hitting a more susceptible population than the last few, and this might be enough to drive a large wave this September when coupled with return to school and work and more time spent inside, where the virus spreads most easily. Given protection from vaccines and past infection, it is unlikely that this wave will cause a large surge in hospital admissions or deaths. However, any increase in hospital burden is bad news, given record waiting lists for diagnosis and treatment and persistently high waits in hospitals for admission.14 Infection is also not harmless simply because it’s causing fewer hospital admissions—long covid remains an ongoing significant problem, damaging people’s lives (e.g. through persistent fatigue or brain fog), as well as taking them out of the workforce.1516 There are two major concerns. The first seems, unfortunately, quite plausible—a repeat of last winter’s unprecedented NHS crisis of covid, flu, and respiratory syncytial virus hit all around the same time, especially with 50-65 year olds now not being offered either the flu or covid vaccine this autumn.17 The second is less likely but would have a bigger impact—another Omicron like event where a new variant emerges, very different from previous strains so that our hard won protection is much less protective. Given few, if any, mitigations worldwide and much lower surveillance, such a variant could spread a long way before we realised it was a problem. The resulting covid wave in the UK winter from such an event could cause major difficulties for the NHS and cause widespread workplace disruption if significant numbers of people are off work ill. Earlier this year, experts put the chance of this happening at about 20% within two years.18 The current growing variant in the UK (EG.5.1 or “Eris”) is not that variant.19 However, the last couple of days have seen a new, as yet unnamed, variant show up in Israel and Denmark which has caught the attention of many experts because it has so many new mutations, some long associated with increased fitness and immune escape, and others entirely new.2021 So far, we have only three sequences although geographic spread means community transmission has occurred. It is still quite possible that this fizzles out—either because its hosts don’t happen to infect anyone or because, despite its novelty, it does not outcompete the current dominant XBB strains. However, this should act as a reminder that without ramping up surveillance, and in the face of waning immunity, we are travelling into winter more vulnerable and with blinkers on. Footnotes
DJ, again I am NOT an expert...It would be very welcome if CoViD would be gone ! Some factors; -the weather...colder, wetter weather may keep a lot of people indoors...Resulting in more spread. -travel...if a person infected with a high risk new variant ends up becoming a mass-spreader...There are NO travel restrictions...so an infected person CAN travel... -new variants-possibly not even now developing in non-human hosts... -co-infections...a bad flu season with on top CoViD-spread may result in much more hospital cases/excess deaths... -booster vaccines...what (age)groups, do they come in time ? (Also does combination with flu-vaccines offer better or less immunity ?) [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data also indicates UK cases going up...With no doubt lots of people fed up with CoViD.... [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-sars-cov-2-infections-surge-amid-rising-excess-deaths-a-closer-look-at-canada-s-pandemic-landscape[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-sars-cov-2-infections-surge-amid-rising-excess-deaths-a-closer-look-at-canada-s-pandemic-landscape DJ-Another aspect might be CoViD infection NOT resulting in symptoms within days after infection-but a much slower development of disease...So we may miss lots of symptomatic early spread...find out symptoms show up later when already lots of "hosts" did get infected... I checked. And there are actually at least 7 mutations (compared to basic BA.2) that this BA.X and EG.5.1 both have. But putting them together in Nextclade, I really do not think they recombined. DJ...if there is hardly any testing sequencing is facing an impossible job... DJ-Above tweet from US-in general children did NOT get vaccinated...may run more risks ! For that matter schools reopening the coming weeks may give an indication...WE SHOULD KEEP RISKS DOWN !!! Ventilate ! Take early warnings serious ! If within a first week of school lots of children get ill maybe parents have to protect their children if governments keep failing... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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roni3470
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Joined: August 30 2006 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 5390 |
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Posted: August 16 2023 at 1:13pm |
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I love all your articles Josh! I am wondering though, can you give summaries once in a while of what you read? I don't have time to go into all the links and look at stuff and you are super aware of everything so I would love it if you just update with your thoughts on what you are reading once in awhile! Thanks! |
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NOW is the Season to Know
that Everything you Do is Sacred |
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: August 17 2023 at 12:36am |
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roni3470, I do give the links for extra info or as sources ("proof" I am not making up those stories...) ... [url]https://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nieuws/nederland/artikel/5401836/corona-virus-coronavirus-deeltjes-nieuwe-variant-rioolwater[/url] or https://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nieuws/nederland/artikel/5401836/corona-virus-coronavirus-deeltjes-nieuwe-variant-rioolwater in Dutch (google translate to English works OK) also NL waste water is detecting more virus... Predicted Immune Escape vs ACE2 Binding Scores (Relative to BA.2) of #Omicron BA.X (from Israel/Denmark) and circulating SARSCoV2 lineages BA.X is expected to bind to host ACE2 receptor similar to XBB.1.5 and immune escape better than XBB.1.5 A major problem is lack of testing...Most testing will be done in people allready in hospital...So we do not know enough of the timeline between infection-show of (what) symptoms...Did that time gap get bigger ? Could CoViD be developing towards a more chronic disease with at first only mild symptoms-later on in some cases more disease ? Ivermectin: Reduced excess deaths reported in Peruvian Covid-19 study "Reductions in excess deaths over a period of 30 days after peak deaths averaged 74% in the 10 states with the most intensive IVM use." DJ, Lots of countries do not have the money to buy expensive medication...Besides that-some anti-virals may "pressure" for further immunity-evasion selection... At some point in the very near future, we are going to have to look at *anything and everything we can find* that might stop this virus. Be it facemasks, ventilation, self-isolation, or even, god forbid, lockdowns or Ivermectin, every single option needs to remain on the table. I see good info, trust, as basics...both did get "a lot of damage" due to "bad management"...Governments are not very likely to admit they were wrong in claiming the pandemic was over...The WHO did state the emergency-early phase- was over... ., thanks for your warnings that countries need better surveillance. Here in the UK, our gov is ignoring your advice. They have systematically dismantled every single means of Covid surveillance we ever had (  below). Please can you have a word with ?The biden claim vaccinated did not need masks is the same kind of damaging non-sense...Non-sterilizing vaccines may have limited disease...but people still could catch CoViD...with more immunity evasion. --------- H5N1 US: The Mink VIRUS Act aims to 'disincentivize' mink farming. “There is no safe way to operate a mink farm without creating a petri dish that could produce the next pandemic virus,” Which is exactly why it should be banned, and not 'disincentivized'. -Good the US is making the point "fur-farms" have to stop....It is about more then only minks.... Russia: Mass death of seals on remote, uninhabited Siberian island "More than 300 northern fur seals and Steller sea lions have been found dead in a mystery mass die-off on a small, uninhabited island in Siberia." for extra info link; [url]https://www.livescience.com/animals/seals/mystery-mass-death-of-seals-on-remote-uninhabited-siberian-island-under-investigation[/url] or https://www.livescience.com/animals/seals/mystery-mass-death-of-seals-on-remote-uninhabited-siberian-island-under-investigation ; Maria Chistaeva, the chief veterinarian of the Primorsky Aquarium who was on the island at the time, told GTRK that avian flu "cannot be ruled out" as a possible culprit. DJ, So it may be to early to think of a link between H5N1 in sea birds infecting sea mammals in Siberia... I also have very limited time-try to follow several stories...Try to get a basic view on events... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: August 18 2023 at 2:05am |
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If you would ask me the top 3 major global risks at this moment; -1 War...DJ-my view- US trying to claim "global dominance" may even result in the US -again- using nuclear weapons... These wars (Ukraine, Syria, Africa) should have been avoided ! NATO did not need to move east ! The best way for the US/NATO to remain the #1 in 2022 was diplomacy...Confrontation may now result in even North Korea playing a BRICS-role....Russia-Iran-China are now strategic partners BECAUSE !!!!! of insane US/west foreign policies !!! The inability to learn is shocking ! Are western leaders blind or crazy ??? -2 Climate collapse...and the social, economic, further outcome... If politics fail to protect their citizens...and keep failing in protecting...why should the population then still respect governments ? This goes for western countries-with wild fires, (Hawaii, Canada, Greece, Tenerife...Australia is next !) massive floods etc..but also China did do a bad job in recent Bejing-area flooding... -3 Pandemics...and ignoring the risks... CoViD is NOT over...H5N1 is a very real major risk -in many ways- for humans...(poultry/eggs=food !)...Mpox is not over..."politics" claiming to be "post pandemic" and "living with the virus" fail -again- to protect their citizens... The BAD NEWS !!! is we will see a combination of the 3 above risks worsening each of them; Wars did bring health crises...some wars will worsen wildfires, droughts etc...Refugees will have hardly an alternative if their home is to hot, dry, no food...they either die there or try to survive "on the move" -no doubt also spreading diseases...Our inaction did create their crises... ------------------ Replying to At first it looked like the BA.2.86 seq from Israel & Denmark were significantly different. The Michigan sequence suggests the apparent differences were mostly sequencing artifacts & that all 4 seq are in fact very similar. The chances this is spreading rapidly just went way up. - BA.2.86 uploaded from #England (London) - DJ...[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-world-health-organization-reports-that-countries-in-the-americas-region-has-stopped-sharing-covid-19-data-usa-behind-initiative[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-world-health-organization-reports-that-countries-in-the-americas-region-has-stopped-sharing-covid-19-data-usa-behind-initiative ...NOT sharing info is killing people...may kill millions ! |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: August 19 2023 at 11:19pm |
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DJ, While western tax/advertising funded "media" keeps pushing Ukraine-nazi-style propaganda-bringing us ever closer to very major conflict a lot of that "media" is -as good as- ignoring new CoViD variants, H5N1 risks etc... The same "media" may NOT link extreme weather, "wild" fires to climate change turning into climate collapse...They still may go for "effects showing up in 2100" insanity... What angers me is the widespread stupidity...How can you solve problems if you do not provide good info ? BRICS is "taking over the world"...western media almost ignoring it... -[url]https://bylinetimes.com/2023/08/17/behind-the-masks-the-controversial-decisions-that-left-healthcare-workers-exposed/[/url] or https://bylinetimes.com/2023/08/17/behind-the-masks-the-controversial-decisions-that-left-healthcare-workers-exposed/ DJ-of course "alternative" crowd funded media now doing the job "real journalists" keep failing to do... If you fail to inform you may end up killing people.... US, NY: 10,648 new COVID cases reported this week, the highest since March 2023. In Germany [url]https://www.aerzteblatt.de/nachrichten/145319/Maskenpflicht-in-Notaufnahme-der-Uniklinik-Kiel-wegen-Corona[/url] or https://www.aerzteblatt.de/nachrichten/145319/Maskenpflicht-in-Notaufnahme-der-Uniklinik-Kiel-wegen-Corona a doctors/medical sector magazine reporting on masks back in a Kiel-Germany hospital... Very important information on BA.2.86 from Austria. No under the radar spread there. Cc @PeacockFlu @lon @JosetteSchoenma @TRyanGregory Please spread to groups i m blocked again. DJ, the new BA.2.86 CoViD variant (will this one be named "Pi" ...or will the WHO stick to calling it still O-micron because Omicron had to be the last variant...) was detected a. o. in Israel, Denmark, UK, US...since a lot of countries stick to "there is no pandemic-policy" very likely this BA.2.86/"Pi" variant-with a lot of mutations-may be far more widespread (also in non human hosts ???) .... Replying to @LongDesertTrain And it would not be surprising to see a BA.2.86/XBB recombinant with the BA.2.86 spike & advantageous non-spike mutations in recent XBB*.
If the ORF1ab of the latest XBB & the BA.2.86 spike are compatible—def. not a certainty—we may see this sooner rather than later. 2/2 DJ, my-non expert, very limited- view: We may see all kinds of new variants showing up high speed very soon...Even if there would be all the money in the world available for testing & sequencing it may be "that much out of control" a Tenerife or Canada wildfire may -compared to out of control CoViD development- is only a small problem... BA.2.86 (#Pirola) updates According to the "7 cases of the highly mutated BA.2.86 strain have been found worldwide including one case in Washtenaw County. The person with the BA.2.86 case is an older adult with mild symptoms" https://washtenaw.org/3108/Cases DJ the good news is lots of experts try to follow developments...even if they may face de-funding, get blocked by twitter/youtube and other advertising "media"... [url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/08/ukhsa-risk-initial-risk-assessment.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/08/ukhsa-risk-initial-risk-assessment.html ; While there is much we still don't know about the emerging BA.2.86 variant (most importantly, how much of an impact it will have on infections, hospitalizations, or deaths), it is fair to say it represents the largest genetic leap in the SARS-CoV-2 virus since Omicron arrived in late 2021.
Omicron's arrival also changed the way SARS-CoV-2 evolved; instead of hugely dominant waves (like Alpha & Delta) that lasted for 6 months or longer, we've experienced a jumbled parade of rapidly rising and falling Omicron variants (including BA.1, BA.1.1, BA.2, BA.4/5, followed by XBBs, etc.). - For now, it remains unknown how disruptive BA.2.86 will become in the months ahead. It may be a flash in the pan, and end up being trampled by the crowded viral field. Or it could be - like Omicron before it - the start of a new phase for COVID.
But it does answer one very important question. New, and radically different COVID variants can still emerge. Which means we dismantle our surveillance and reporting systems at our own peril. Over the past three days we've seen statements from the WHO and Denmark's SSI on BA.2.86. Late yesterday afternoon, the UK's Health Security Agency issued the following two reports. - Meeting and assessment 1 pm, 18 August 2023.
DJ, so how bad is this new variant in itself ? Is it part of a new way of CoViD-evolution increasing risks ? If you do not test and sequence you may find out you have a problem when healthcare collapses, public trust is completely gone... [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data showing "slow increase" in self reported UK CoViD symptoms...DJ-Lots of people may no longer know what to think...are totally fed up with health crises...I think a lot of people may not go for booster vaccinations "because the pandemic is over" "news"... Healthcare going for masks may be the "real world" while "politics/media-for sale" advertise another pseudo reality... [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-incidence-rate-rises-by-24-6-percent-in-the-last-week-in-france-local-pharmacies-running-out-of-covid-19-test-kits[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-incidence-rate-rises-by-24-6-percent-in-the-last-week-in-france-local-pharmacies-running-out-of-covid-19-test-kits lots of countries may be without test-kits, masks etc. while schools/workplaces will reopen soon...Children in 99% of cases are NOT vaccinated...
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: August 20 2023 at 11:36pm |
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DJ, [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/real-reason-eris-cases-are-spiking[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/real-reason-eris-cases-are-spiking "media" claiming the pandemic is an excuse of big pharma to make massive profits...When you know a little bit of history (most people hardly know a thing on World War Two...) you know pandemics have been around in human history...Even masks may go back to over a thousend years...Mal-aria = bad air...linking the disease -wrongly- with spread via the air... [url]https://wellcomecollection.org/articles/XwMmcBQAAGwR9GY8[/url] or https://wellcomecollection.org/articles/XwMmcBQAAGwR9GY8 ; Face coverings as a way of protecting respiratory health go back at least 2,000 years. The Roman philosopher Pliny the Elder (23–79 CE) used animal-bladder skins as masks to filter dust while crushing cinnabar, or mercuric sulphide, a toxic mineral used at the time for pigmentation in decorations. In China there is evidence of similar face coverings dating back to the 13th-century Yuan dynasty. In his travelogue written during this period, the Italian explorer Marco Polo (1254–1324) described servants attending to the Chinese emperor and his entourage wearing silk scarves to cover their mouths and noses to prevent their breath from contaminating the food they prepared. DJ...not all masks are "good"...some may contain cancer-linked materials...Selling used masks is a crime...In history lots of vaccines did do a good job...But -my view- non-sterilizing vaccines may not be able to end a (CoViD) pandemic...on the long run it may make matters worse... Still vaccines -on the short term- saved many lives and may also limit "Long/chronic CoViD"... "Politics" using medical issues can result in masks, vaccines becoming a political statement...In the US politics still is making (dealing with) the pandemic worse.... DJ, very likely SEVERAL -more than one- new variants may be spreading worldwide...We will miss most of it...(maybe we will miss 99% !!!!! of it !!!!) because we do not test and sequence... CoViD-19 in animals may result in new recombinations/variants that may be very high risk for humans...Some detected new variants (showing up within a week at three continents !!!) show "a lot of mutations".... DJ-my non expert view; I will be offered a booster vaccine within a few months (and combined -it looks like- with a flu-vaccination...So two vaccinations at the same vaccination-post) and I will accept them...On top of that I will try to stay informed on illnesses in my region...If a lot of people get ill I will reduce (further) my social activities to lower risks... Of course ventilation lowers viral-loads...outdoor activities are lower risk...HOWEVER !!!! We may see "new diseases/symptoms" resulting in a much higher Case-Fatality-Ratio (CFR). Both "Flu" and "CoViD" may develop into a "killer disease" ...In the recent past healthcare ran out of capacity to be able to offer a way out for a lot of people...Hospitalbeds do NOT save lives, HCW-ers do ! Here in NL in the central part of the country schools restart today...Also lots of workplaces are restarting...There may be an increase of spread of diseases...We will see the coming month (half of september) what reopenings bring... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: August 22 2023 at 12:17am |
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DJ, A hardly readable-but important-article; [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/thailand-medical-news-exclusive-novel-human-host-receptors-identified-for-sars-cov-2-cell-entry-and-attachment[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/thailand-medical-news-exclusive-novel-human-host-receptors-identified-for-sars-cov-2-cell-entry-and-attachment the basic story is CoViD can be caused by the corona-virus getting into the body via lots of "receptors" than "only/just" the ACE-2 receptor...DJ-Maybe it would also result in different symptoms/disease depending on what receptors is being "used" ? Some receptos may be organ-linked (kidneys, brain, gastrointestinal) so may do more organ damage... But it is impossible to get even a basic view if we do not even try.... Japan: EG.5 "somewhat more infectious" than prior strains. According to the WHO, EG.5 accounted for 21.1% of infections worldwide between July 24th and 30th. The World Health Organization recently designated EG.5 as a "variant of interest." and EG.5.* - the "somewhat more infectious" variant - seen here in red. DJ [url]https://twitter.com/CoronaHeadsUp/status/1693722972903637205/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/CoronaHeadsUp/status/1693722972903637205/photo/1 basic problem-hardly any testing/sequencing...even in hospital cases "because CoViD is over".... DJ...only 7 BA.2.86 detected over 3 continents...(Denmark -3, US-2, Israel, UK both 1) --------- [url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/08/finland-food-safety-authority-25th-fur.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/08/finland-food-safety-authority-25th-fur.html ; today we have a statement indicating a 25th fur farm has been infected, and a status update on the number of animals that have been ordered euthanized. DJ...do we realy want pandemics ? We are doing ALL we can to get CoViD restarted, H5N1 increasing a risk for humans...(maybe via coinfection in a mammal with another flu virus resulting in a new type of H1, H2, H3 type of flu...). ------- [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2023/08/articles/diseases/salmonella/human-multidrug-resistant-salmonella-linked-to-raw-pet-diets/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2023/08/articles/diseases/salmonella/human-multidrug-resistant-salmonella-linked-to-raw-pet-diets/ ;
DJ...it may be a combination of -many- risk factors that may result in a health collapse unseen in centuries... In latest news I also give my view on the NATO-BRICS conflict...with lots of pandemic links. Pharma-products are made in, produced of BRICS basics...Health Care Workers are now "imported" from countries NATO is keeping poor...Soon public workers may have a much better chance in BRICS countries... The neo-liberal/conservative NATO is defunding everything public...BRICS is investing in the public sector...Of course more NATO agression will bring even more refugees...(but the better informed may decide the west may not be the best place to go to...). |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95847 |
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Posted: August 23 2023 at 2:01am |
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Here in general discussion I posted some more on the UK redefining Long CoViD as ME/CFS -in part for health insurance/income related social security reasons... I thought this was rather interesting: “Some people diagnosed with Long Covid for >12 months are having their diagnosis changed to ME/CFS.” Can anyone shed any more light on what’s happening here? Is this a cunning ploy to hide the true Long Covid case numbers? DJ, proberbly the answer to the last question-hiding L.C. numbers- has to be "yes" ...At present I only can see "politics" as ways of hiding for reality...disgusting ! - Scenario 1, it could fizzle. The best example I can think of is BS.1. This lineage was also had a bunch of mutations the first time we saw it. (personally I think they both came from persistent infections) - Scenario 2, BA.2.86 could displace the XBBs and become dominant, but not cause a significant wave. This is basically what has been happening for the last year. The dominant lineage changed every 3-4 months without any major* surges in cases. (*major is subjective, no BA.1s) - Scenario 3, BA.2.86 will be the 4th major wave and just hasn’t reached critical mass yet. Delta was like this. There were over 100 Delta sequences in the US submitted before May 2021, but it wasn’t until it ‘caught fire’ in MO/AR that we experienced the surge. DJ...Marc Johson thinks BA.2.86 could end up between scenario 2 and 3. Omicron infection may increase risk of reinfection. Rather than conferring immunity against future infections, those infected during the first Omicron wave of COVID were much more vulnerable to reinfection during the second Omicron wave. - A virus that leaves a back door. Now where have we heard of that before? I am less optimistic; -CoViD risks are now widely ignored in most countries... -There seems to be a tendency in CoViD variants to become more and more immunity evading... -CoViD corona-virus can use lots of receptors (much more than "only" ACE-2 receptors) to infect... -CoViD is now also widespread in non-human hosts...So new variants are already on their way... I do not know what BA.2.86 will do-very likely it will see lots of sub-variants (BA.2.86.1 etc)...In general I do think CoViD will become a bigger problem soon than it has been so far...It did NOT run out of mutations, did NOT get mild...It was NOT contained by human actions ...so why would it stop ? Wishfull thinking is NOT the answer, ignorance only makes matters worse...Like in climate change it looks like "we" (most those kept poor) will find out the hard way... We do not learn from history-mostly because we do not want to face history...It disturbs our illusions... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: August 24 2023 at 12:17am |
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New from @OHdeptofhealth: "preliminary detection of the BA.2.86 COVID-19 variant in one wastewater sample. ODH is working with the @CDCgov on further evaluation" This makes Ohio now 3rd state to report this new COVID variant, after Michigan and Virginia https://tinalexander.github.io/notes/2023/08#ohio-spokesperson-on-ba286-in-wastewater - and Karl Lauterbach, German Health Minister: Unfortunately the situation: after COVID infection, the risk of diabetes, heart attacks, strokes and also dementia remains increased for longer. Vaccination reduces risk but does not go away. Drugs are being researched at high pressure. DJ, Lots of places both report increase of cases and detection of the BA.2.86 variant (Switzerland, Thailand detect it -like Ohio- in wastewater. Japan, UK, DK, Israel detected this variant in sequencing human samples...) Replying to @shay_fleishon 2/4 : So here is the list. and in the next post in the thread some explanations:
G21941T, C22916T, C22353A, C21711T, C28958A, G26529C, C23604G, A26610G, A22034G, C26833T, C897A, G3431T, T15756A, A22556G, C25207T, C22208T, A7842G, G11042T, T22896A, C24378T, T13339C Some countries claim they did not see the BA.2.86 variant...very likely they were not trying very hard....21 specific mutations-and that is a lot ! and than shows an empty page....because "politics for sale" went for profits/economy NOT public health ! BA.2.86: CDC Risk Assessment "One analysis of mutations suggests the difference may be as large as or greater than that between BA.2 and XBB.1.5, which circulated nearly a year apart." link; [url]https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/covid-19-variant.html[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/covid-19-variant.html This variant is notable because it has multiple genetic differences from previous versions of SARS-CoV-2. Current Risk AssessmentBased on what CDC knows now, existing tests used to detect and medications used to treat COVID-19 appear to be effective with this variant. BA.2.86 may be more capable of causing infection in people who have previously had COVID-19 or who have received COVID-19 vaccines. Scientists are evaluating the effectiveness of the forthcoming, updated COVID-19 vaccine. CDC’s current assessment is that this updated vaccine will be effective at reducing severe disease and hospitalization. At this point, there is no evidence that this variant is causing more severe illness. That assessment may change as additional scientific data are developed. CDC will share more as we know more. DJ...and one of many problems could be it is NOT the only "different" variant...Since we stopped testing and sequencing we simply do not know... MASKS HELP !!!!...they may not be 100% perfect...but in combination with good ventilation, hygiene, limiting social contacts Non Pharma Interventions do lower risks ! DJ-AGAIN !!! CoViD is NOT new !!! It was first detected/named almost 90 years ago [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_coronavirus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_coronavirus ; All coronaviruses originated from a common ancestor about 293 million years ago. Zoonotic species such as Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV), Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a variant of SARS-CoV, emerged during the past two decades and caused the first pandemics of the 21st century. DJ, The way to "control" it in farm animals is kill all the animals in the farm....The basic idea of non-sterilizing vaccines would end the pandemic did sound to me as unrealistic over-optimistic...But again I am NOT an expert...I do know a bit on history...not on epidemology/virology.... Also both CoViD and H5N1 is now widespread -and interacting with other virusses/variants- in mammals outside humans...The "Spanish Flu may have peaked in the west in 1918-19...a more realistic timeline would be 1917-1923...with the spread in Asia later on...Real pandemics are taking several years... At present we are doing all we can to create pandemics; lots of diseases-via lots of transport-to lots of hosts.... [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data UK self reporting of symptoms moving slowly towards 1 million active UK symptomatic cases...(So 1 in 68 UK citizens would be having CoViD-symptoms...). |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: August 25 2023 at 11:52pm |
 Our MAJOR new report out TODAY Evidence shows COVID measures together = EFFECTIVE Key findings:  Distancing/lockdowns=MOST EFFECTIVE measure  FACEMASKS consistently found to be EFFECTIVE  Strong evidence for contact tracing appslink [url]https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/impact-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-on-covid-19-transmission/[/url] or https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/impact-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-on-covid-19-transmission/ ; Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), include any public health measure that is not a vaccine or drug. At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, no drugs or vaccines were available to contain the spread of the causative virus, SARS-CoV-2. This meant countries were reliant on NPIs to protect populations and health systems until pharmaceutical interventions were developed. A wide variety of NPIs were employed (typically as part of packages). The Royal Society report covered six broad categories used during the pandemic:
- There is clear evidence from studies conducted during the pandemic that stringent implementation of packages of NPIs was effective in some countries in reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. There is also evidence for the effectiveness of individual NPIs, but most NPIs were implemented in packages. Disentangling the effects of one NPI when other NPIs were implemented at the same time presents a significant challenge. Evidence suggests that NPIs were, in general, more effective when case numbers and the associated transmission intensity of SARS-CoV-2 were lower. NPIs became less effective as more transmissible variants of the virus emerged (eg Delta, Omicron) which were better adapted to spreading between people and evading immune responses. Stringency of application of individual NPIs and groups of NPIs influenced rates of transmission, eg respirator masks were more effective than surgical masks and two weeks of quarantine were more effective than shorter periods. DJ, A goal the article claims is to buy time so pharma-solutions can be developed...My view; When confronted with lots of diseases the major goal could be damage control. -Keep a basic healthcare going at least avoiding some extra deaths -Try to limit general panic -Try to optimize strategies to further reduce cases ------- In general I think we are already very deep in a multi-problem swamp. Good politics could have avoided a lot of it...but good politics are missing.... [url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3857.150.html#lastPost[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3857.150.html#lastPost (latest); The next few days? DJ...maybe the Greenland-ice-melt story reflects a general crises. We may never have been this close to (all out) nuclear war. The Oceans/atmosphere have never been this hot. Both CoViD and H5N1 are a global major risk... [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data UK self reporting CoViD symptoms may still be < 1 million but keep going up. People can get long Covid without testing positive for virus. “We estimated that there were approximately 10 million people in the first year of the pandemic who got Covid, got long Covid, but tested negative for Covid,” link; [url]https://www.statnews.com/2023/08/23/long-covid-diagnosis-negative-test/[/url] or https://www.statnews.com/2023/08/23/long-covid-diagnosis-negative-test/ ; Of the 103 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the U.S., an estimated one-third have led to long Covid — a condition that ranges in severity, but can be debilitating. A new study suggests that even more people may be suffering from the post-viral syndrome without having ever received an official diagnosis of Covid-19. The study, published Wednesday in Neurology, Neuroimmunology & Neuroinflammation, was small, examining only 29 patients. But it offers unique insights into how many cases of long Covid may go unidentified because the patient’s Covid-19 infection wasn’t detected. “We estimated that there were approximately 10 million people in the first year of the pandemic in the U.S. who are in this predicament: who got Covid, got long Covid, but tested negative for Covid,” said Igor Koralnik, who led the study and is the chief of the division of neuroinfectious diseases and global neurology at Northwestern Medicine. The findings of the study suggest that a positive diagnosis for Covid-19 should not be a requirement for treating people whose symptoms are in line with long Covid, said Ziyad Al-Aly, a clinical epidemiologist at Washington University in St. Louis, who was not involved with the study. DJ; testing is far from perfect-even PCR testing can go wrong in many ways (may simply miss the virus-particles in the nose...). My view; waste water testing, stool testing, could do better to see how much virus still is around. The virus could be hiding in someones organs-so autopsy could be of use-trying to find the virus in kidneys, liver, lungs, muscle-tissue The main reason why we do miss a lot of virus spread may be "we do not want to know how bad it is".... US: EG.5 driving up hospital admissions in N.Y. It's in Central New York. It's in upstate New York. It's the predominant variant around the country right now." and #COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #USA Top #SARSCoV2 Lineages #21DAYTRENDS XBB.1.16 (6.9%) FL.1.5.1 (6.4%) XBB.1.16.6 (5.9%) EG.5.1.1 (5.6%) EG.5.1 (5.3%) XBB.1.5 (4.6%) XBB.1.16.1 (3.6%) GJ.1.2 (2.9%) Tracker: http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7 | 08/24/23 DJ, besides lack of testing international there may NOT be coordination on how to define sub-variants...(Some countries may still call EG.5.1 and ignore the EG.5.1.1 etc...It could be that some subvariants have that many different mutations it is unworkable to give them all a different "name"...(You could end up with EG.5.1.1.1.1 etc...). The BA.2.86 subvariant may be much more widespread but become missed because sequence capacity has its limits... Replying to @SSI_dk This tenth BA.2.86 has an extra C21T, T4579A and S:G594S mutation. The one at the bottom of the top branch. DJ...so-as a non-expert-the 10th detected individual/4th Denmark/DK BA.2.86 could be seen as BA.2.86.1 ????? here in NL the first schools reopened last monday-we so far did not yet see an explosion of cases...But it would be very early for that...Maybe second half of september may tell us more on CoViD (and H5N1) spread... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: August 28 2023 at 12:15pm |
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As could be expected; [url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/08/28/covid-hospitalizations-back-rise-new-virus-variant-emerges[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/08/28/covid-hospitalizations-back-rise-new-virus-variant-emerges ; Hospitals in the Netherlands are again treating more patients with serious symptoms of Covid-19. The total number of admitted patients with the coronavirus disease has risen to 114. That is the highest total since May 30. The recent rise seems to be in tandem with the emergence of the EG.5 variant of the coronavirus. DJ, BA.2.86 now a.o. detected in Germany, Portugal, wastewater in Catalunya (spain), Switzerland; Replying to @cbg_ethz For August 8-14, we have clear detections in Schwyz on August 13, 14, and 15; clear detection in Luzern on August 12; less distinct detection in Chur on August 13. There is a suspicion of detection in Basel on August 10. No further detection in Laupen after August 5 and 6. Italy: Covid cases almost double in a week 11,606 cases were reported, compared to 5,919 last week. Positivity increased from 6.5% to 9.2%, and 44 deaths were recorded in the same period. So...yes CoViD may be returning; That’s right… Send your children in to school with cold/flu like symptoms… Don’t worry that may actually be highly infectious Covid… And no need to test them to find out. Then infect the whole class, starting countless new chains of transmission… Since there are to many people anyway...why should governments not invest in more war... 2 more "representative" BA.2.86 samples from Portugal with the A613G mutation. From the 15th of August, which makes them the most recently found. So 13 now, from 6 different countries. It seems to miss S:R403K. Artifact? And T11614C and C17288T=ORF1B:T1274I as extra mutations. Time to show strong leadership-STOP TESTING ! I am getting cynical... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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badger2
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Posted: August 30 2023 at 12:59pm |
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Where are the BA.2.86 mutations from the spike posted? This is what we have thusfar: L216F H245N A254D I332V K356T R403K V445H N450D L452W N481K A484K E554K A570V P621S H581R S939F P1143L |
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: August 31 2023 at 2:20am |
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DJ, My view; BA.2.86 may still show new mutations and there may be more new high risk variants... We are at 24 BA.2.86. Denmark 10 Sweden 4 USA 3 of which 1 traveler from Japan Portugal, South Africa 2 Israël, England, Canada* 1 Newest al from mentioned branch. Tree not completely correct, but still handy for dates etc.. Recent extra Spike mutations S:T299I and S:E748Q but again; impossible to follow-get a realistic view because there is hardly any testing left...so sequencing may give -very likely- only a limited view on hospital cases further in the process of disease...The latest number on detection of BA.2.86 may be in the 30's...real number must be in the tens-of-thousends... BA.2.86: NHS officials say it represents 'the most concerning new variant since Omicron' Vaccination program for elderly and immunocompromised brought forward by one month. DJ...vaccines may NOT be the answer...Non Pharma Intervention has to do the major job... BA.2.86 “PIROLA”, a thread  Most people may think Covid is over, but Covid is not done with us. Not by a long way. As the world has been scaling back surveillance & mitigations, the virus has been busy fine-tuning its survival strategy.  Presenting BA.2.86…DJ...again-my non expert view...BA.2.86 (sub variants) are just part of a much larger problem of new variants of CoViD very likely ending the "pandemic-pause"...[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data UK active symptomatic cases over 1 million...so 1 in 67 UK citizens symptomatic ???? ------------------ This month did see lots of extreme weather...Hurricanes may not be new-warm ocean water may result in stronger storms... Of course the US/-biden-/NATO war against the rest of the world goes on...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabon#Economy[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabon#Economy may be the latest African country ending French neo-colonial exploitation...The "democratic elected dictator" comes from a family ruling that country for 55 years... It is not a coincidence we start seeing a lot of "coups" in Africa...Rich countries kept poor by contracts with former colonizers stealing oil, gold, uranium...The west supporting a corrupt elite "fake democracy"....Maybe the growing political crises in the US-UK-EU are related... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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badger2
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Posted: September 01 2023 at 8:01am |
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The mutations posted above are from the Bloom lab. nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02656-9 'JBloom...."I don't think anybody needs to be alarmed by this. The most likely scenario is that this variant will fizzle out." ' BA.2.86 did not change from Delta at certain key positions: L492,Q493,G496, Y505, and is likely just as susceptible to ivermectin as Delta. These positions are precisely the binding sites of ivermectin. Can the zoonatis' credibility risk another replay of prophylaxis at Uttar Pradesh? |
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Badger2
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badger2
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Posted: September 01 2023 at 11:33am |
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Actually, there is one ivermectin binding site that BA.2.86 mutated: Y505H, though whether or not this intensifies or weakens the energy of binding is not known. It would be beneficial to know the ethnicity and geography of this mutation. BA.2.86 also mutated at the furin cleavage site, adding another arginine, which theoretically increases cleaving ability. BA.2.86 P681R renders the furin site thus: RRRAR, whereas SARS2 furin @ 681 is PRRAR, recalling python coronavirus spike sporting up to five arginines, though at a different location. |
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: September 01 2023 at 12:06pm |
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DJ, at the same time lots of indications cases are increasing-but not getting tested.... We do not have ANY idea what (sub)variants are spreading.... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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badger2
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Posted: September 05 2023 at 9:14am |
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This report confirms three arginines at the furin cleavage site: 5 Sep 2023 BA.2.86 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jmv.29079 '....K417N....' But this K417K is not the original that was posted on the CDC website. The original was for the Japan-Brazil mutation, K417N/T, which they changed, though not because it was a typo. Why it was changed is not known, though it is a valid coronavirus genome modus operandi to insert more than one possibility (N/T) into a mutation. |
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