Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Bird flu could hit Americas within a year |
Post Reply |
Author | |
Nomad
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 15 2006 Location: Hungary Status: Offline Points: 36 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Posted: March 08 2006 at 8:34pm |
Bird flu, already spreading across Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, is
expected to jump across the Atlantic Ocean to the Americas within a year, a
senior U.N. official said on Wednesday.
"It is certainly within the next six to 12 months. And who knows, we've been wrong on other things, it could be earlier," said Dr. David Nabarro, coordinator of the U.N. drive to contain the pandemic in birds and prepare for its possible jump to humans. He predicted the leap across the Atlantic Ocean would take place in two stages, carried in the next few months by wild birds flying from West Africa to the Arctic region, and then brought southward to North and South America six months later. "I just think that every country in the world now needs to have its veterinary services on high alert for H5N1, to try to make sure that they don't get caught unawares and find that it gets into their poultry populations without knowing," Nabarro told a news conference at U.N. headquarters. "And I will bet you that many countries in the Western Hemisphere are doing just that," he added. For the immediate future, the spread of the disease among birds in Africa is the main focus of the U.N. team -- which includes the World Health Organization, the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Organization for Animal Health, Nabarro said. The disease has been confirmed in Niger and Nigeria but there have been bird die-offs in other African nations and confirmation of its further spread is expected soon, he said. To spur preparedness, representatives of more than 40 sub-Saharan African countries will be meeting in the Gabonese capital Libreville later this month, he said.Source: Reuters |
|
Nomad
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 15 2006 Location: Hungary Status: Offline Points: 36 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
OIE
Warns of H5N1 Migration to North America and Australia
Australia, Canada and the United States stand a "very high" risk of seeing the current H5N1 bird flu pandemic spread to their shores, the Paris-based World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) warned. . "The probability of this strain appearing in Australia is very high. The possibility is also very high for the United States and Canada," OIE Director General Bernard Vallat told a French parliamentary commission on the disease. The above comments by OIE are consistent with sequence analysis of H5N1 in wild birds in Astrakhan as well as H5N2 in British Columbia. The United States is planning on dramatically increasing surveillance, which is long overdue. Canada released some data on their surveillance of birds banded in southern Canada in August. The released data revealed an unexpectedly high frequency of H5 detection in young healthy wild birds. All reporting provinces had H5 and British Columbia 24% of the birds tested were positive. However, only a partial sequence of two of the genes from a farm duck H5N2 isolate has been released. The N2 sequence had a large number of polymorphism historically founding Asia, indicating wild birds had recently been shuttling N2 sequences (largely from H9N2) in Asia into North America. Similarly, sequences from recent H5N1 isolates in Astrakhan identified a number of American polymorphisms, suggesting earlier H5N1 migration to northeastern Canada. The August testing in southern Canada may have been too early to detect H5N,1 but analysis of a full dataset could define migratory paths of bird flu from both northeastern and northwestern Canada. Recent sequences fro H5N1 isolates in China show evidence of extensive recombination between wild bird sequences. Tree sparrow sequences were identified in waterfowl and domestic poultry in eastern China, especially Henan province. The extent of recombination varied from isolate to isolate or gene to gene ranging from about 1/3 of the gene down to a single nucleotide. The single nucleotide changes can be used to trace migration in the past, which can be used to trace future migrations. The United States is planning a dramatic increase in surveillance in Alaska. However, Canada already has a database of sequences from 2005 isolates that include H5N1, H5N2, H5N3, and H5N9 isolates. Release of these sequences would greatly enhance surveillance reports. Similarly, WHO affiliated labs at Weybridge have sequestered a large number of sequences from H5N1 isolates throughout Europe. Release of these sequences would also greatly enhance analysis. WHO and consultants are monitoring sequences for reassortment and "random mutations" which they maintain are not predictive. However, the "random mutations" are largely recombinations and are very predictive. WHO should release the sequences so they can be fully analyzed. |
|
Nomad
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 15 2006 Location: Hungary Status: Offline Points: 36 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
Quarantines lifted from 2 Canadian poultry farms
WINNIPEG, Manitoba - Routine quarantines have been lifted from two of the eight Quebec poultry farms that recently tested negative for bird flu, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency said on Wednesday. The birds, imported from France where the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu was detected on a farm in February, were released from the standard 30-day quarantines required for most animal imports. Precautionary avian influenza tests for the domestic fowl on the eight Quebec farms turned out negative last week, the CFIA said. The CFIA expected the quarantines on the remaining six farms to be lifted within weeks, granted their health status does not change. Canada imposed curbs on poultry from France after the dangerous strain of bird flu was discovered there. |
|
roadrunner
Valued Member Joined: March 08 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 4 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
Los Alamos scientist tracking virus expects it within 2 years By Sue Vorenberg Birds don't have to go through security checks when they cross borders.
They don't have to get tested for drugs or disease before visiting wintering grounds along the Rio Grande.
In the next two years, they could bring to New Mexico a deadly
natural biological weapon - bird flu - says Jeanne Fair, a scientist at
Los Alamos National Laboratory. She has been studying how the disease
will travel from Asia and Europe into the United States and New Mexico.
The strain that has infected millions of birds worldwide will
almost certainly be here in the next two years, possibly by late 2007,
Fair said.
Whether the H5N1 influenza virus that they carry has mutated
into a strain that can create a pandemic outbreak in humans remains to
be seen.
"I think it will probably be here sooner, but it's one of those
guess points of people in ornithology," Fair said. "If you have the
summer, you have breeding birds over in Europe. Then they'll probably
go north, mix again (with birds in Alaska), and then next fall and next
winter, we could start seeing it."
For the past year, Fair has been investigating where bird flu
might show up in New Mexico along the Rio Grande corridor. She did the
same thing for West Nile virus for the five years before that.
Los Alamos has about 40 people working on the problem and
investigating ways to track bird flu, test for it and genetically
isolate particular strains and where they came from, said Babs Marrone,
a lab scientist working on the problem.
"You have a better chance of predicting (how the disease will
spread) if you know what's in the environment naturally," she said.
The efforts fall under the lab's national security mission, Marrone said.
"I think one thing we can do about it is to continue our
planning and getting counter-measures in place with the expectation
that there will be a pandemic in the human population - whether it's
this year or 20 years from now," Marrone said.
The disease, spread through bird feces, saliva and infected
water, was first found in Hong Kong in 1997 and spread in birds through
Asia.
In the past two years, it has migrated through the Middle East and into Europe and Africa but has not reached North America.
The flu has infected a small number of people, mostly poultry workers.
As of Monday, the World Health Organization listed 175 cases in Asia and the Middle East, with 95 deaths.
It's the high death rate associated with the disease in humans that worries health officials.
If the disease mutates so it can spread from human to human,
rather than just from bird to human, a deadly pandemic could spread
across the globe, killing millions, said C. Mack Sewell, the New Mexico
state epidemiologist.
"If it stays in wildlife, at that point it's not a big issue
for human health," Sewell said. "The problem is human-to-human
transmission. Internationally, we're only seeing a very small amount of
human transmission from birds or exposure to bird products."
But wild birds can infect domesticated birds in chicken farms,
and those birds are more likely to spread the disease to humans because
of increased contact, Fair said.
Tens of thousands of waterfowl such as ducks, geese and cranes
spend winters in New Mexico along the Rio Grande corridor every year.
When they bring bird flu into the state, they could infect other birds
and the water that the birds and other creatures live in, Fair said.
"You have to test the birds and test the water," Fair said. "If
you find it in a lake, influenzas can hang around for a month. Some
studies have shown it staying over 200 days."
The longer the disease remains in the water, the more likely it is to find other host species, Fair said.
In Germany and Thailand, it has jumped to cats, which shows the virus is finding new ways to mutate, Fair said.
"We know it infects cats - that's unheard of," Fair said. "Cats do not get influenza."
Cats can transmit the disease to other cats, too, which is another warning sign, she said.
"Minks are susceptible, and of course, pigs will be important,
as well," Fair said. "They're sort of a mixing vessel. They have
receptors that are similar to birds but also to humans."
When the first infected birds are found in New Mexico, the
state would try to isolate the areas they are found in and quarantine
domestic birds there, Sewell said.
The state will test more regularly across the state after the disease first appears in the United States, Sewell said.
Internationally, animal vaccines have been developed for bird
flu, but a human vaccine can't be developed until a strain is isolated
in humans, Sewell said.
Developing a batch of vaccines can also take from six to eight
months, which is "long enough for a pandemic strain to produce a first
wave worldwide," Sewell said.
Still, groups are investigating some sort of primer vaccine
that might reduce the death rate while a more reliable vaccine is
developed, Sewell said.
|
|
Fiddlerdave
Valued Member Joined: February 09 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 259 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
"A whole division related to pathogens". Well, this is what you would see IF the USA had developed extensive bio-warfare capability, which, OF COURSE, they haven't done that, because . "See, free societies are societies that don't develop weapons of mass terror..." GWB, 2/13/2004. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4179618/ Sigh, ironic statements aside, Los Alamos does have extensive biological capabilities, and a more-than-passing acquaintance with studying, creating, modifying, and the methods of transmission of deadly diseases, for many decades. Hey, maybe a payoff from all that work may be something THEY can do to save us!!! |
|
Dave
"Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for us"! |
|
Post Reply | |
Tweet
|
Forum Jump | Forum Permissions You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot create polls in this forum You can vote in polls in this forum |