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MARTIN OUELLET Thu Mar 9, 4:21 PM ET
QUEBEC (CP) - Quebec is preparing for a worst-case scenario in which 2.6 million people in the province would be infected in the event of a human influenza pandemic, says Health Minister Philippe Couillard.
< name=> Couillard said everyone is worried about the occurrence of a pandemic. "The government is taking measures so that from the beginning of the epidemic we're able to limit the number of hospitalizations and deaths," he told a news conference on Thursday.
The plan was prepared with a worst-case scenario that the first wave of a pandemic would affect 35 per cent of the population over a period of eight weeks.
That would mean 2.6 million Quebecers could be infected, 34,000 could need hospitalization and 8,500 could die.
"If we had presented you with a milder version of the situation, it would have been irresponsible," Couillard said.
The Quebec government's action plan says three of four conditions are in place for a pandemic to arise.
The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has emerged and, in rare cases in Asia, humans have been infected by direct contact with sick birds. There have been 94 deaths in seven Asian countries.
It's virulent, says the report, and humans do not have any form of immunity to the virus.
The only thing missing is that it has not spread from person to person.
Critical products, like antiviral drugs and, eventually, vaccines, will be distributed to priority groups.
"If there is a shortage, special security measures will be put in place to protect the storage and distribution of vaccines and antivirals," the plan says.
Couillard said he hopes the plan never has to be put into action.
"What is obvious today, it should be obvious, is that everyone here is working together to prepare our society and the health-care network for the occurrence of this pandemic, which, again, we hope will never happen."
Corporate Canada is making plans in case of a pandemic and the federal government and other provinces have their own such plans.
In Ontario, for example, fears of a bird flu pandemic has the provincial government looking to pass legislation before next summer that grants the premier "extraordinary" powers during emergencies.
In the event of a pandemic, the Quebec government estimates 65,000 health-care workers would be stricken and retired medical personnel would need to step in as replacements.
"All of society's activities would be affected to varying degrees, as would the physical health of the population," says the plan.
It will put enormous pressure on the health and social services network, and the plan outlines 24 strategies, including everything from the rapid disposal of remains to communication with the public.
Couillard said a flu pandemic would be difficult for Quebec's economy, but added that the province has learned a lot about crisis management since the 1998 ice storm.
Preparations are a work in progress, officials pointed out.
The federal government has its plan in place, and now regional health and social services agencies throughout Quebec will develop their own to co-ordinate with the federal and provincial actions.
