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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Black Swan vs Grey Rhino

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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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    Posted: April 13 2021 at 12:44am

I was reading on BBC about "Financial Animals", and they had this:-

Quote There's been a huge debate raging about whether the pandemic is a black swan - a high-impact event that makes more sense in hindsight - or a grey rhino, something you really should have expected and done something about.

Michele Wucker is the policy analyst and author who first came up with the idea of the grey rhino. 

"The grey rhino is the big, obvious, scary beast with a horn pointed straight at you that gives you a choice of what to do: get trampled, get out of the way, or harness its strength," she tells the BBC.

Do you think that the current pandemic was a Black Swan or a Grey Rhino event?

I tend towards the Black Swan, as we were looking more for a Flu Pandemic not a coronavirus one.

But if countries had really prepared for a Flu Pandemic they might not have been scrambling at the beginning like they were, so we should have prepared for a Rhino, we just were looking at the wrong Rhino.

ps. Carbon might have a different take, as a gather that where he lives black swans are quite common   .

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carbon20 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 13 2021 at 2:05am

Yes our black swans are famous.....

As for topic.....

Those in the know have known about a possible pandemic for years and years..... 

our spicies is a reactionary one 

we aren't  a proactive spicies.....

look at our attempts to control Climate change.....non existent........

ergo we are always going to be playing catch up......

we are a dumb lot.....

we think we are so so clever......but we back to burning animal fat for light as soon as the power goes off.....

take care all 😷😉

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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