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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Calculating CFR in Ongoing Pandemic

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WitchMisspelled View Drop Down
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    Posted: August 20 2020 at 4:55am

I saw this posting on social media and decided to run the numbers.  Using World-o-Meter numbers this morning, the present CFR of Covid is 5.4%

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/estimating-mortality-from-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR2tIAaHW3k4uoGoQjaNYNPMler3yU-AYbNlUGRpgKS4GdGB7QgECvnzj14

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Technophobe View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2020 at 6:03am

That is still an estimate, but a very educated and intelligent one.  We will probably not know the true CFR until historians are calculating it.

Having said that, around 5% is a number I can believe in.  It would be high up in the bell curve of my original estimates. a

Finally, the WHO has a reputation for downplaying things to avoid panic.  So their marginal imput is not likely to have been exaggerated.


Thanks Witchy!

ERCD
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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2020 at 7:26am

The high Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is correct. This is a definition based on the actual number of deaths where testing has been done (so it depends on testing rates and can be measured).

What is a lot lower is the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), which is the one the scientists have to estimate as they have to work out just how many people were infected and not just those who were tested.  


As we know the testing has been limited and delayed, so the IFR should be a lot lower than the CFR.  I guess that a lot of reports get a bit messy and confuse the two different rates.  


Another rate that could be used is Mortality Rate this is the number of deaths per population.  Here the figures for deaths seem to have been down played in many places, but still  Corvid-19 is giving high numbers compared to other individual diseases.  The current rate (using just officially reported data -   which is clearly on the low side) gives a world wide rate of 101 / million.  If one excludes China's data as being unreliable then the rate jumps to about 123 / million.  [For comparison UK's rate is 609 / million and the USA's rate is 532 / million] {Worldometers uses death / million, some other medical tables use deaths / 100,000, so you need to check units if doing a DuckDuckGo* search]


* You can use this search engine if you don't want your data sold on.

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carbon20 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2020 at 4:06pm

I just take it the governments lie

And the figures we are fed are 

Understated.....

It's always going to be a lot worse than the 

"sir humphries"(yes minister)

 let on.....

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2020 at 10:29am

Worldometers this am shows 22,589,017 confirmed and 792,475 deaths - or 0.035.... unless my math is wrong (and it very well could be - on first cup of coffee after bad night!) but 3.5%, which ironically (world wide) is about half what Canada stats show - 123,873 confirmed and 9054 deaths - or 0.07309 ie. 7.3%!

But then you have to take into account that some countries (Peru for example) say 85% of cases are mild, here (in west at least) people don't tend to run to doctor for every sniffle/cough so likely a HUGE number more unconfirmed but positive cases then the 123k stated, which of course greatly lowers the CFR... time will tell I guess.  And of course the rumours of many (many!!) deaths being stated as C19 that aren't and/or are due in part to it - ie the straw that broke the camels back but not the primary cause... Should be an interesting ride for the next year or two.

I tend to be more concerned with food shortages and massive rights grabs by governments worldwide myself...

If it's to be - it's up to me!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2020 at 11:04am

In the absence of sufficient tests (which many, many countries are guilty of) and accurate tests (ditto) the numbers of deaths could be underestimated as well.  As a country, our death rate more than doubled for a while, of which covid19 was only checked for in a few cases.

Some things drop the estimates, some raise them.  The best figures are still estimates.

ERCD
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