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Can hurricanes destroy the US ?

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Can hurricanes destroy the US ?
    Posted: September 02 2017 at 1:08am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KedPdSH636E Some models predicting hurricane Irma hitting New York september 11 as a category 5. http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/world-news/1169-computer-model-shows-irma-destroying-new-york-city-nj-on-sept-10

Harvey did serious damage to Texas http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-01/arkema-texas-plant-explodes-causing-massive-fire-black-smoke-fills-air. US oil/petrol production is seriously effected (-16% production for the US ?) Long term damage will put-for the moment-Harvey on top of the list of most damaging disasters. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/top-5-most-expensive-natural-d/47459. (DJ; it is impossible to put a precise price-ticket on a disaster. The 2011 Japan earthquake/tsunami caused Fukushima. That disaster is still ongoing. Harvey is already estimated to be a 190 billion disaster. When you include cleaning up chemical damage, desinvestments etc. the costs will further increase.)

The US economy is already very much debt-based. The US is fighting several wars around the globe trying to stay "the only (military) superpower". Economicaly the world is already multi-polar. 

The US is political divided, has been neglecting its infra-structure for decades. Fracking did increase earthquake risks. 

On that bases;

-hurricanes can destroy critical infrastructure ((rail)roads, shipping, electricity etc.)
-the capacity to deal with several hurricanes doing damage over a 100 billion dollar is not there. 

Does that mean "the end of the US" ? No ! Foreign nations will come to the rescue ! But all things have their price. Hurricanes could end the US as "the only superpower". 

More than 50% of the world-population live in (Eur)Asia. China-Russia-Iran-Pakistan (CRIP) are very much involved in a "New Silk Road" wich puts China in the global centre in stead of the US. 

On the longer term climate change may make this planet uninhabitable for live. That problem needs to be solved with very much urgency !
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 02 2017 at 1:33am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfHKbGAL_sE BP Earthwatch following the hurricanes in the Atlantic 


Although it is not possible to forcast weather that much in the future sea-surface-temperature (SST) is high giving potential for strong hurricanes. It is possible to make models. Those models will effect human actions. 

It will effect stock-exchange to tourism. Plans to invest in regions to investments in "fossil fuels". 

Can the US start a major conflict in Korea while there are these kind of disasters unfolding in the US ? 

Climate reanalyzer (University of Maine): http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS-025deg.NATLAN-LEA.WS10 (green=180 km/h+ winds !!!)

A reminder: a cubic metre of water=1000 kilograms. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_wave the amount of damage waves can bring depend on a lot of factors. 

(Worst case scenario could be waves bulldozing the US east coast. Waves over 50 feet moving tons of water at high speed will destroy everything in its path. ) 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 02 2017 at 2:44am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes 

You would expect a sharp increase of cat.5 hurricanes due to climate change. But cat.5 still is uncommon. 

Category 5[edit]

Category 5
Sustained windsExample
≥ 70 m/s
≥ 137 kn
≥ 252 km/h
≥ 157 mph
Felix from ISS 03 sept 2007 1138Z.jpg
Felix near peak intensity

Catastrophic damage will occur

Category 5 is the highest category of the Saffir–Simpson scale. These storms cause complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings, and some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Collapse of many wide-span roofs and walls, especially those with no interior supports, is common. Very heavy and irreparable damage to many wood frame structures and total destruction to mobile/manufactured homes is prevalent. Only a few types of structures are capable of surviving intact, and only if located at least 3 to 5 miles (5 to 8 km) inland. They include office, condominium and apartment buildings and hotels that are of solid concrete or steel frame construction, public multi-story concrete parking garages, and residences that are made of either reinforced brick or concrete/cement block and have hipped roofs with slopes of no less than 35 degrees from horizontal and no overhangs of any kind, and if the windows are either made of hurricane-resistant safety glass or covered with shutters. Unless all of these requirements are met, the absolute destruction of a structure is certain.[5]

The storm's flooding causes major damage to the lower floors of all structures near the shoreline, and many coastal structures can be completely flattened or washed away by the storm surge. Virtually all trees are uprooted or snapped and some may be debarked, isolating most communities impacted. Massive evacuation of residential areas may be required if the hurricane threatens populated areas. Total and extremely long-lived power outages and water losses are to be expected, possibly for up to several months.[5]

Historical examples of storms that made landfall at Category 5 status include: "Cuba" (1924), "Okeechobee" (1928), "Bahamas" (1932), "Cuba–Brownsville" (1933), "Labor Day" (1935), Janet (1955), Camille(1969), Edith (1971), Anita (1977), David (1979), Gilbert (1988), Andrew (1992), Dean (2007), and Felix (2007). No Category 5 hurricane is known to have made landfall as such in the eastern Pacific basin.

Should a "Category 6" be introduced?[edit]

After the series of powerful storm systems of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, a few newspaper columnists and scientists brought up the suggestion of introducing Category 6, and they have suggested pegging Category 6 to storms with winds greater than 174 or 180 mph (78 or 80 m/s; 151 or 156 kn; 280 or 290 km/h).[7][15] Only a few storms of this intensity have been recorded. Of the 31 hurricanes currently considered to have attained Category 5 status in the Atlantic, only 16 had wind speeds at 175 mph (78 m/s; 152 kn; 282 km/h) or greater and only 6 had wind speeds at 180 mph (80 m/s; 160 kn; 290 km/h) or greater. Of the 15 hurricanes currently considered to have attained Category 5 status in the eastern Pacific, only five had wind speeds at 175 mph (78 m/s; 152 kn; 282 km/h) or greater (PatsyJohnLindaRick and Patricia), and only three had wind speeds at 180 mph (80 m/s; 160 kn; 290 km/h) or greater (Linda, Rick and Patricia). However, most storms which would be eligible for this category were typhoons in the western Pacific, most notably Typhoon Tip in 1979 with sustained winds of 190 mph (310 km/h) and typhoons Haiyan and Meranti in 2013 and 2016, respectively, with sustained winds of 195 mph (314 km/h).[16]

According to Robert Simpson, there are no reasons for a Category 6 on the Saffir–Simpson Scale because it is designed to measure the potential damage of a hurricane to man-made structures. Simpson stated that "...when you get up into winds in excess of 155 mph (249 km/h) you have enough damage if that extreme wind sustains itself for as much as six seconds on a building it's going to cause rupturing damages that are serious no matter how well it's engineered

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 02 2017 at 2:50am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_New_York_City

The economy of New York City encompasses the largest municipal as well as regional economy in the United States. Anchored by Wall Street, in Lower Manhattan, New York City has been characterized as the world's premier financial center,[1][2][3][4] and is home to the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ, the world's largest stock exchanges by market capitalization and trading activity. In 2012, the New York City Metropolitan Statistical Areagenerated a gross metropolitan product (GMP) of over US$1.33 trillion, while the Combined Statistical Area[5] produced a GMP of over US$1.55 trillion, both ranking first nationally by a wide margin and being roughly equivalent to the GDP of South Korea. [6] The city's economy accounts for the majority of the economic activity in the states of New York and New Jersey.[7]

Manhattan is the leading center of banking, finance, and communication in the United States and is the location of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Wall Street. Many of the world's largest corporations locate their home offices in Manhattan. Manhattan contained over 500 million square feet (46.5 million m2) of office space in 2015,[8] making it the largest office market in the United States,[9] while Midtown Manhattan, with nearly 400 million square feet (37.2 million m2) in 2015,[8] is the largest central business district in the world.[10] New York City is distinctive for its high concentrations of advanced service sector firms in fields such as law, accountancy, banking and management consultancy, and is the top global center for the advertising industry, which is metonymously referred to as "Madison Avenue"; while Silicon Alley, metonymous for New York's broad-spectrum high technology sphere, continues to expand.

The financial, high technologyreal estate, insurance, and health care industries form the basis of New York's economy. The city is also the most important center for mass media, journalism and publishing in the United States, and is the preeminent arts center in the country. Creative industries such as digital media, advertising, fashion, design and architecture account for a growing share of employment, with New York City possessing a strong competitive advantage in these industries.[11] Manufacturing, although declining, remains consequential.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_New_York_and_New_Jersey


DJ; this area may be facing a "category 7" hurricane !http://hypotheticalhurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Category_7


http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/local-news-nyc-nj-ct/1147-major-fuel-pipeline-supplying-new-jersey-new-york-city-new-england-shut-down

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 02 2017 at 10:34pm
Idaho "volcanic quakes" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=St3lOLk7kqc (still going on)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JBbqvXuCT4 Irma expected to produce waves +50 feet/15 meter near Peurto Rico. Landfall near DC ? 

DJ: A reason to think of more scales for hurricanes than 5 is that proberbly a "5" would not flatten New York but a "7" could do that much damage. Lets hope "Irma" moves more to the east and stays on the Atlantic. A category "7" hurricane can do that much damage-when it would hit New York it could cause a global economic crisis. 

That would make giving aid to the people in India-Nepal-BanglaDesh almost impossible. You need "producers", ports, logistics to produce and get aid from point A to B. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 03 2017 at 6:49pm
Thanks, Dutch Josh!  Great research as usual!  

In Al Gore's "Climate Reality Leadership Corps" training (I am a Mentor in his organization), Mr. Gore shows some of the old footage from "An Inconvenient Truth" movie with animation of the 9/11 Ground Zero memorial being flooded by a hurricane. 

Skeptics scoffed at this, but it did happen with the big Super Storm Sandy!  

I know Al is a controversial figure, but he seems to be making the correct assessment of where the US and planet are heading.  I never could stand the guy but came around to appreciating his viewpoint and dedication.  


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 03 2017 at 7:34pm
I hate to say it, but I honestly think we're screwed. As more and more evidence begins to emerge suggesting CO2 may have been replaced by methane and water vapor as the main driver of climate chance, it seems as though we've unleashed a positive feedback nightmare that we can't possibly fix. With vast reserves of trapped methane in the permafrost,  and methane hydrate deposits on the ocean floor waiting to be liberated by warming temperatures, we haven't seen anything yet.


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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 03 2017 at 11:49pm
The US East-coast should be preparing for Irma now !

-What parts of the land may get flooded. What needs protection. Water flows to the lowest points-so all in the east-coast area should do their best to get the extreme amounts of water were it does the less damage !

-Evacuation may go for low lying areas-involving millions of people. When you have to evacuate that much people you need days to do so. 

-Chemical plants, industries may be requierd to stop activities, transport goods to safe areas. There should be a minimum of leakages, fires etc. when there are days before the hurricane strikes land. 

-There is good info on you-tube. Be realistic about the dangers. Sensationalism is not helping but a cat 4 or 5 hurricane in low lying areaś is a very serious risk ! Good info saves lives !

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-03/latest-projections-show-hurricane-irma-headed-southeast-florida DJ; Irma still could go into the Gulf-region-hit Texas or Mexico, in some scenarioś it could move north become a risk for Canada (or even Greenland !) But for the moment the US east coast most likely will be hit by a cat 3+ hurricane around sept 10 to 12.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 04 2017 at 11:43am
Follow Irma-models; looks like it may move over Cuba then move north over Florida-following coastline.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 there are two other storms developing. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 04 2017 at 8:55pm
BP EarthWatch comes with some models in wich "Irma" moves or west of Florida into the US or bounces after Florida into the Atlantic to touch the US near North Carolina...and a week later a second hurricane...




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 06 2017 at 5:12am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 06 2017 at 7:26am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 06 2017 at 8:16pm
climate change is/will be the greatest threat ever faced by the human species

A two-decade crusade by conservative charities fueled Trump’s exit from Paris climate accord

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2017/09/a-two-decade-crusade-by-conservative.html

(The Washington Post) – Myron Ebell stood in bright sunlight as President Trump stepped into the Rose Garden and spoke.

“In order to fulfill my solemn duty to protect America and its citizens,” Trump said to rowdy applause, “the United States will withdraw from the Paris climate accord.”

Ebell was hot, sunburned and very pleased. He was witnessing history that he had helped make.

For nearly two decades, Ebell has led the Cooler Heads Coalition, an umbrella group of tax-exempt public charities and other nonprofit organizations in the vanguard of efforts to cast doubt on the gravity of climate change and thwart government efforts to address it.

Coalition members have called climate science a hoax and denounced environmentalists as “global-warming alarmists.” They have written letters, blasted out emails, pressured lawmakers, sponsored seminars, appeared on television and made a documentary movie.

It was all part of a wave that crested with Trump’s rejection on June 1 of the Paris agreement, a landmark accord by nearly 200 countries in 2015 to limit greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming.

“He made the decision. We helped create the circumstances,” Ebell told The Washington Post. “When you are persistent, good things can happen.”

The story behind the coalition illuminates the influential, little-known role that tax-exempt public charities play in modern campaigns to sway lawmakers and shape policy in the nation’s capital, while claiming to be nonpartisan educational organizations.

It also offers insight into the forces behind a Trump decision that infuriated scientists and environmentalists, mystified U.S. allies and went against the advice of some major corporations. […]

After long questioning global warming, Ebell now acknowledges that “climate change is occurring and human beings have a role in it.” But he said global warming still is not a crisis. He frames climate change as an ideological issue, saying that giving the government more authority to address it would stimulate a “regulatory onslaught,” damage the U.S. economy, and subvert human freedom.

Ebell, who is not a scientist, said he and his colleagues respect the scientific process. But he said he thinks many climate researchers endorse prevailing views on global warming only to cash in on government grants.

“They are all in lock-step,” he said. “It has all the appearance of being a scam.”

Climate scientists said there is no doubt about the reality of climate change and its consequences, including melting polar ice caps, rising sea levels and the intensification of storms. Benjamin Santer, a scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory who received a MacArthur Foundation “genius” award for groundbreaking climate research, told The Post that Ebell and his Cooler Heads colleagues are attempting to turn back the clock on knowledge and science.

“He is not a climate scientist. He will never be a climate scientist. Mr. Ebell seems to believe that it’s possible to magically assimilate scientific understanding from thin air,” said Santer, speaking for himself"

and we have an INCOMPETENT IDIOT as head of state

who was it who said "we DESERVE all the BAD government we get " ???

"

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 06 2017 at 9:22pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 06 2017 at 11:20pm
DJ; some remarks:

-https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oM6DFx2dmXs MrMBB333 models can get it wrong. That makes it difficult to anticipate. You could be evacuating the wrong areas. But above ground powerlines mean risk of losing power for a longer period. Low ying areas can expect flooding. 

-Paul Beckwith had a good point. "Normal" a hurricane would mix cold ocean water with the top hot water. Now the ocean is that warm it is only mixing hot water-feeding further hurricanes. (DJ; since the warm water is more north hurricanes move up north-that is why the US is getting more hurricanes !)

-BPEarthWatch; Katia was expected to move into Mexico with Irma moving west of Florida. Now the latest models put Irma east of Florida giving Katia more room to develop and maybe even to reach the US gulf coast as a cat.2 hurricane. Irma will put strong waves into the gulf and may follow the Atlantic coast. Remaining very strong and pushing a lot of water on the coast. 

-Places that once did provide safety against hurricanes may not be able to do that any longer. Looking at the Caribean very strong structures (even grassroots) were moved by the storm. Evacuation may be the only way to survive !



DJ-Yes hurricanes can destroy the US when ten Harvey like hurricanes hit the US each year the coming 10 years and only worse after that. People do not want to live in much of the US with that kind of risks. 

Strong hurricanes also mean stronger storms for western Europe. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 07 2017 at 8:59am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 07 2017 at 9:18am
Irma going to take a strong turn westward after hitting Florida,according to  NOAA
Georgia and South Carolina to get hit hard

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 07 2017 at 12:05pm
Satori, you mean northward ? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-07/southeastern-us-better-wake-fema-chief-warns-irma-will-be-truly-devastating-storm 



Hurrricanes are known for surprises....the number of storms on their way this month could be shocking-and a lot of them will follow a more north-route due to warmer ocean water.

As I mentioned earlier-we in western Europe are NOT safe. We may face stronger storms soon !

BPEarthWatch latest update: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_OvAhiDRys 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 07 2017 at 4:57pm
Burning on the West coast,drowning on the East Coast,massive floods in Asia,Swiss mountains ,falling apart, methane gas leaking from the Ocean floor,permafrost that's not so perma!!!!,

Climate change is all a figment of the imagination,and FAKE NEWS...

Very very sad for the Human race



12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 07 2017 at 5:34pm

Hurricane scientists have never seen an image like this before


https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/hurricane-scientists-have-never-seen-an-image-like-this-before/ar-AArtxSw?li=BBnb7Kz

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 07 2017 at 8:49pm
IRMA moving north
but continuing to take a strong westerly tack
heck
this monster could actually end up in the Gulf at this rate
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 07 2017 at 9:28pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOmG93NyX7M MrMBB333 latest update, Irma moving inland in the US after Florida bringing floods etc. 

Reports from Sint Maarten Dutch/French island in the Caribean;
-government, telecommunication, (air)port collapsed
-Jose expected saterday
-most people out of housing, food, water

Dutch and French help on its way but growing fear of health, public order problems. 

In some islands people had to tie themselves to the strongest things they could find to avoid to be blown away. Number of dead and missing may be very high.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQlGj5pHJVk Paul Beckwith on how to keep informed, were the strongest wind is in a hurricane, google earth as info on how high a ground is; most of Florida may end up under water-damages in the hundreds of billions....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyja1mc-W6s DAHBOO77; some nuclear plants shut down, people trying to leave Florida-once the storm starts you do not want to be in a car ! Jose could follow Irma on its way to Florida. Chemical leakages may make hit regions unliveble...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 08 2017 at 2:09am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EL_2SiAU0Gg M8.1 hit Mexico at the Pacific coast near Guatemala. 


https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/905928442251763713 meteorologist wondering if the Irma damage could reach a trillion US$.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 08 2017 at 5:08am
This is amazing...

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/hurricane-scientists-have-never-seen-an-image-like-this-before/ar-AArtxSw?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp


For the first time in modern history, three hurricanes in the Atlantic are lined up in the most dangerous of ways, according to Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 08 2017 at 6:54am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jc930p8euBw DAHBOO77-update. 

Andrew 1992 cat 5:             Irma 2017 cat 4:
Max wind=165 mph             185 mph
stormdiameter 400miles       650miles
74mph  wind radius 45 miles 75 miles
time over Florida 4hrs           24+hrs

The hurricane Irma that is expected to make a landfall in the United States, is going to "devastate" the country, the chief of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) said on Friday.

FEMA Administrator Brock Long said at a press conference that the hurricane will leave portions of Florida without electricity for days, adding that over 100,000 residents of the state will need shelter.

DJ; I hope that the shelter provided will offer enough protection. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFWPKyzNq6c Dr.James Hansen "storms of my grandchildren" https://www.facebook.com/jimehansen/ and https://www.democracynow.org/2017/8/30/ex_nasa_scientist_james_hansen_there

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/07/hurricane-irma-live-latest-updates-caribbean

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 08 2017 at 12:29pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 08 2017 at 11:08pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 09 2017 at 1:22am
MrMBB333 with history of stormsurges https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IBx5slkkU8

also warning for alligators in Florida after flooding ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgYG-6D-jaU

NHC-new disturbance west of Africa http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

BPEarthWatch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdqAuHztifc Risk-maps only go to 10 feet surge, expected is 12 feet surge plus extreme rain and up to 35-40 feet waves. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 09 2017 at 7:11am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 09 2017 at 7:30am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 09 2017 at 10:26pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sngKWNDIdg
MrMBB333; Jose moving north-strikes New York/Massachusets sept 18 ? (DJ-models do not show another new hurricane forming in the Atlantic coming week, but http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5)
MrMBB333; forward speed Irma half as fast = double the rain amounts for Florida. Irma regaining strenght. Expect sinkholes and "waterworld".

BPEartWatch; Irma moving more west than expected staying more above hot Gulf-water=bigger chance "Irma" for going to cat.4 (or even 5) !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfSLaopV3hw Temperature giving Irma extra strength 32C /89,6F water (Katia could move into the Pacific as tropical depression)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9GYivvuJis Paul Beckwith on tornadoes in "Irma".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39k56nB9X4k Dahboo77 hackers using oppertunity to hack US cybernet.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 10 2017 at 9:11pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akx5NhoDSJk MrMBB333 Irma did push oceanwater away from land-that water will return. Warning for an 82 feet /25 meter wave near Miami ? 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvdalIASU2s Dahboo77-update Jose moving towards Maine sept 19 ?




live radar


DJ-of course these weather-disasters are climate change related and (for that reason) not only a US problem. A economic crisis in the US due to these events is a global problem. Weather disasters are reported around the globe. To deal with that-trying to limit damage only international cooperation can mean enough.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2017 at 6:19am
Allthough "Irma" is not over yet https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#y=32.8333;x=-78.7953;z=6;t=4;m=sat;r=0;s=0;o=0;b=0.00;n=0;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;ra=1; it is not longer a hurricane http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-11/half-floridians-without-power-state-braces-lengthiest-restoration-us-history Already, damage estimates suggest that Irma could enter the pantheon of costliest hurricanes in US history just two weeks after Hurricane Harvey accomplished a similar feat in the Gulf of Mexico. According to Bloomberg, Enki Research estimates for total damages dropped to $49 billion from $200 billion earlier.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season on Harvey:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Harvey Harvey caused at least 71 confirmed deaths; 1 in Guyana,[1] and 70 in the United States.[2][3] FEMA director Brock Long called Harvey the worst disaster in Texas history, and expected the recovery to take many years.[4] Economic losses are preliminarily estimated at between $70[5] to $200 billion,[6] with a large portion of the losses sustained by uninsured homeowners.

Economic loss estimates

Based on current damage estimates made by multiple agencies, Hurricane Harvey is likely to be at least the second-most costly natural disaster in U.S. history, behind only Hurricane Katrina in 2005.[5][125] Moody's Analytics has estimated the total economic cost of the storm at $81 billion to $108 billion or more; most of the economic losses are damage to homes and commercial property.[5] USA Today reported an AccuWeather estimate of $190 billion, released August 31.[126] On September 3, Texas state governor Greg Abbott estimated that damages will be between $150 billion and $180 billion, surpassing the $120 billion that it took to rebuild New Orleansafter Katrina.[127][128] According to weather analytics firm Planalytics, lost revenue to Houston area retailers and restaurants alone will be approximately $1 billion. The Houston area controls 4% of the spending power in the United States.[129]

A significant portion of the storm's damages may be uninsured losses. Regular homeowner insurance policies generally exclude coverage for flooding, as the National Flood Insurance Program underwrites most flood insurance policies in the US.[130][131] Although the purchase of flood insurance is obligatory for federally guaranteed mortgages for homes within the 100-year flood plain, enforcement of the requirement is difficult and many homes, even within the 100-year flood plain, lack flood insurance.[130] In Harris County, Texas—which includes the city of Houston—only 15% of homes have flood insurance policies issued by the NFIP. Participation in the NFIP is higher, but still low, in neighboring Galveston (41%), Brazoria (26%), and Chambers Counties (21%).[130]


Both https://www.ventusky.com/?p=35.9;-73.8;5&l=wind&t=20170920/18">https://www.ventusky.com/?p=35.9;-73.8;5&l=wind&t=20170920/18 and http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#GFS.CONUS-CED.WS10-MSLP  expect "Jose" reaching DC/NY area around sept 19. (DJ; both they and the NHC do not show new hurricanes forming west of Africa yet.) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kWwyog182Q MrMBB333
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2017 at 7:24am
Another way to look at trends in hurricanes, statistics end 2016:

In the top 15 of most named storms since 1851 not less than 10 are from 2000 or later. Also in other lists there is an overpresence after 1990. 

Is the number of hurricanes, the strenght, related to climate change, I think so !

Also 9 of the 14 costiest weather disasters since 1980 were 2000 or later.

From the 32 costiest US hurricanes 12 are from 2000 and later. (The costs are adjusted to a 2010 baseline-population/building-boom also increase damages.)

It looks like 2017 is another very bad hurricane year. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2017 at 12:15pm
https://laughingsquid.com/hurricane-size-comparison/ and http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-five-big-crises-that-got-worse-while-the-world-watched-irma-20170911-gyeuxu.html

5. Climate change

Climate change gathers force. The evidence of the damage inflicted by man-made global warming grows stronger. "As recently as a decade ago, climate scientists had a motto that 'you can't attribute any single extreme event to global warming'," wrote three climate scientists in the Scientific American this week.

"By the time politicians and journalists started repeating that line, however, the science had moved on, so that we now can attribute individual events in a probabilistic sense," according to Michael Mann, Thomas Peterson and Susan Joy Hassal. "We know that the strongest storms are getting stronger, with roughly 8 meters per second increase in wind speed per degree Celsius of warming.

"And so it is not likely to be a coincidence that almost all of the strongest hurricanes on record (as measured by sustained wind speeds) for the globe, the Northern Hemisphere, the Southern Hemisphere, the Pacific, and now, with Irma, in the open Atlantic, have occurred over the past two years."

The UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres is due to meet Donald Trump next week and is expected to try to persuade him to keep the US committed to the Paris carbon treaty. If the evidence of Irma doesn't make an impression on Trump, it's hard to know what could. After all, it's received a lot of coverage.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/11/threat-climate-change-hurricane-harvey-irma-droughts

The problem is, our current business-as-usual trajectory takes us to a world that’s about 3.5C warmer. That is to say, even if we kept the promises we made at Paris (which Trump has already, of course, repudiated) we’re going to build a planet so hot that we can’t have civilisations. We have to seize the moment we’re in right now – the moment when we’re scared and vulnerable – and use it to dramatically reorient ourselves. The last three years have each broken the record for the hottest year ever measured – they’re a red flashing sign that says: “Snap out of it.” Not bend the trajectory somewhat, as the Paris accords envisioned, but simultaneously jam on the fossil fuel brakes and stand on the solar accelerator (and also find some metaphors that don’t rely on internal combustion).

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2017 at 10:50pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEYJdwgipus MrMBB333 with an update on "the disaster after the disaster". With 13 million households without electricity, maybe for a longer period, schools closed, roads blocked, farmland flooded-the damage must be large. Also a question on "what happened with the water".


https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/jose-potential-east-coast-threat Latest models indicate "Jose" making landfall in eastern Canada ? No new hurricanes forming ? We have to see how that goes. 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-11/all-food-gone-violence-erupts-caribbean-island-st-martin French and Dutch military try to get aid into St.Martin and restore public safety. Civil "unrest" may be a problem elsewere when infrastructure problems are not solved. 

People need information most of all. When can they get food and water, were can they sleep...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2017 at 10:56am
They might destroy the U.S, but they could certainly wipe out most of the South. The total cost in funding from .gov for Harvey in Texas and Irma in Florida and North Carolina could exceed 30 billion dollars.

So what happens, as two more move closer if every year we have these kind of disasters in the South?

There will not be the rush to finance aid we have seen for Hurricane Harvey in Texas. While they may not destroy the U.S. they could certainly cripple the budget. Indirectly, if we see conditions resulting without power (electricity) or adequate medical or police coverage, you will see looting, disease, and more anarchy in the streets.

Scary thought.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2017 at 11:18am
Spot on, Med.  Climate change is increasing the frequency and strength.  As the water gets hotter the storms get stronger - simple physics.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2017 at 12:14pm
Med, investers will not invest when a region has to many risks. Both for the US and the EU regions most at risk will see economic desinvestment and jobs move elsewere. 




With more cyclones, hurricanes etc shippinglanes will get disrupted-transport of goods more expensive. Climate change will effect foodproduction. Irma and Harvey means loss of agriculture land and products.

Tech, http://robinwestenra.blogspot.nl/2017/09/warming-of-north-sea.html The North Sea is getting hotter as well. We in Europe may see the consequences maybe tomorrow with the coming storm tomorrow. 

Stay safe !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2017 at 1:10pm
I have been expecting it DJ.  

Our storms are getting more frequent and nastier too. 

Luckily, up until now, there have been no hurricanes in the Uk.  So, when we do get them, as we will eventually, they will not reach category 5.  Well probably not, anyway.  

Buildings here tend to be stone, brick and concrete.  there are few wooden houses,  Timber framed buildings are getting more common, but we have got a stone one with 3 feet thick walls - deliberately.  

We are only 10 miles from the coast, but quite high.  So, as long as our buildings are fairly robust we should be fine, no matter what.  We own the highest point around, but our house is 30 or 40 foot below that .  Above us are dense trees - needed to prevent landslides in my opinion.  Lots of new build stuff seems to be, not only timber frame, but also in low lying coastal areas, or on valley sides where they have removed the trees above.  STUPID!

What is it like where you are?  How are sea/wind defenses?  Holland always struck me as low - but with great planning and defensive thinking.  Will you be OK when it all goes pear shaped?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 4:46am
MrMBB333 with an update on power in Florida https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14eC4n0oXRY&t=39s in some areas may take more than 10 days. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WPNEsSplOc "Jose" could go a lot of directions. Models have lost grip. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnHs-qgJ18Y Remains of "Irma" moving towards Texas-Houston-Gulf. (Could it become a hurricane again in the Gulf ? Katia did so after crossing Mexico and moving into the Pacific.) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Jwq2aQXK1E also BP Earthwatch surprised by the strenght of "Irma" !



Tech, we now have a lot of wind. But this is nothing compared to a hurricane. Since Arnhem is build on hills north of the (Lower)Rhine-river-with a lot of low lying land rain can be a problem. We have a "dyke" for the railway allthrough the city-so with a lot of rain water is a problem at some places. 

"Climate change were you are" makes a good item !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2017 at 10:01pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PLNY-kMMss BPEarthWatch some models "Jose" moving towards New York tuesday. But a lot of uncertainty. "Jose" influencing some remains of "Irma" above Texas. 

MrMBB333 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1tP7H6pWHE global view; Fukushima-Japan may see a cat-2 cyclone. Western Mexico a cat-4 but the mountains there will limit damage. On the Atlantic all models have a different story. "Jose" the be part of a large system of depressions and storms moving towards Europe ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2017 at 12:22pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2017 at 4:41pm
this JOSE guy is REALLY getting on my nerves
it was supposed to stay FAR out to sea
but obviously isn't going to happen
I''m not gonna take a direct hit but we certainly will get a lot of wind and rain

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/235324.shtml?cone

this bad boy is really unpredictable
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2017 at 9:34pm
Satori, "Jose" might become recordbreaking in duration. MrMBB333 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdHYv84X_2U "Jose" looks a lot like "Sandy" and new hurricanes forming on the Atlantic. (Impact on the Dominican Republic as a cat.4/5 in a week then moving to Florida ?)

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