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Cases ID'd By PCR Tests Valid?

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AndyPOW View Drop Down
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    Posted: January 04 2021 at 8:15pm

I've looked into PCR testing, I've asked about PCR testing on the weekly State of Alaska call which includes the state medical officer, etc. . . .


Would those of you in the field weigh in on PCR testing in general, and articles like the one below? Have cases in the U.S. been overstated? Are claims that the developer of the PCR test never intended it to be used for testing valid, or taken out of context? Thanks in advance.

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/fda-admits-pcr-tests-give-false-results-prepares-ground-biden-virus-rescue-miracle



"Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2021 at 8:56pm

Well as Stalin I'm sure would have said during this pandemic "who gets the test is not nearly as important as who sets the criteria for the test", round and round it goes how many amplifications it takes for a positive test and if it's valid no one knows.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2021 at 12:39am

I put a link on AI's post in general discussion (study of10 million tests) about PCR testing ,from the BMJ

About accuracy......




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Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2021 at 2:50am

I wonder when Mr Biden is president,the rest of the world's covid numbers will go down.......

UK could do with some Biden magic,going into 6week lockdown.....😆

take care all   

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2021 at 4:18am

CNN: Amid a devastating Covid-19 surge, Los Angeles County ambulance crews told not to transport patients with little chance of survival.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/05/us/los-angeles-county-california-human-disaster-covid/index.html


Hurry up Biden magic...... America needs you......

NOW ....



Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2021 at 6:53am

I have some faith in Biden, but he can't perform miracles.  He can't bring the dead back to life.  He can't un-infect the infected.  He can't make the test accurate.

Maybe, he can put the breaks on the uncontrolled spread of the virus in the USA, but even at best he can only slow it down.  It is still a race between the virus and the vaccination.

I don't even blame Trump for all the covid deaths, the virus was going to get into America and spread, whoever was in power.  I do blame him for a large percentage of the deaths, as his attempt to control the virus was pitiful - verging on non-existant - and his lack of a response to the second wave even approached criminal.

Having an unreliable test just made both jobs (the old and the new) harder.  I am glad Biden is in; I'm glad there is a vaccine; I am even glad there is a test - albeit flawed, but the fight has its hardest rounds still to go.

Believers don't need proof and sceptics won't accept proof.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2021 at 9:17am

I understand all that, and understand the differences between different reagents, differences between testing between the U.S and the U.K. tests.

What I'm asking is are the number of cases in the U.S. wildly overstated, or within the bounds of reasonable given the percentage of false positives and negatives. From my study it seems about 5% are false positives, and an even larger percentage are false negatives. That is fine. . . 


What I keep reading is the number of cycles is "ridiculously high" in order to vastly increase the number of "cases". There is a lot, and I mean a lot, of propaganda and disinformation out there. Is "the PCR tests intentionally overstating cases" in the same garbage dump as "masks are dangerous, and the Danish study proves it", or are the tests reasonably accurate?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2021 at 11:36am

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

CNN: Amid a devastating Covid-19 surge, Los Angeles County ambulance crews told not to transport patients with little chance of survival.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/05/us/los-angeles-county-california-human-disaster-covid/index.html


Hurry up Biden magic...... America needs you......

NOW ....




Wow. That article is quite chilling. What a choice to have to make. The paramedics are literally triaging the life out of people. The line about adults aged 18 and over who've been involved in blunt force trauma is presumably referring to car accidents and the like. People who would have otherwise recovered under normal circumstances. 

What a terrible scenario for all involved.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2021 at 11:40am

Originally posted by AndyPOW AndyPOW wrote:

I understand all that, and understand the differences between different reagents, differences between testing between the U.S and the U.K. tests.

What I'm asking is are the number of cases in the U.S. wildly overstated, or within the bounds of reasonable given the percentage of false positives and negatives. From my study it seems about 5% are false positives, and an even larger percentage are false negatives. That is fine. . . 


What I keep reading is the number of cycles is "ridiculously high" in order to vastly increase the number of "cases". There is a lot, and I mean a lot, of propaganda and disinformation out there. Is "the PCR tests intentionally overstating cases" in the same garbage dump as "masks are dangerous, and the Danish study proves it", or are the tests reasonably accurate?

Andy, I think the global numbers have passed the point where we need to know exact figures of who has had it, who has got it etc. The key thing I take from it all is that in certain countries the virus is endemic, it's everywhere and it's spreading unchecked. Even if Biden threw millions of dollars at testing, what's the point? The genie is out of the bottle in the US and now the effort should be put into treating those with it. While you have increasing numbers of people dying, other non covid people being turned away from hospitals and a medical system overwhelmed, then the disease is speaking for itself.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2021 at 11:42am

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

I have some faith in Biden, but he can't perform miracles.  He can't bring the dead back to life.  He can't un-infect the infected.  He can't make the test accurate.

Maybe, he can put the breaks on the uncontrolled spread of the virus in the USA, but even at best he can only slow it down.  It is still a race between the virus and the vaccination.

I don't even blame Trump for all the covid deaths, the virus was going to get into America and spread, whoever was in power.  I do blame him for a large percentage of the deaths, as his attempt to control the virus was pitiful - verging on non-existant - and his lack of a response to the second wave even approached criminal.

Having an unreliable test just made both jobs (the old and the new) harder.  I am glad Biden is in; I'm glad there is a vaccine; I am even glad there is a test - albeit flawed, but the fight has its hardest rounds still to go.

I do blame Trump. He could have a made a huge difference to the outcome if a) he had acknowledged Covid from the start when all other world leaders were doing so, and 2) if he had made testing and treatment free and widely available to everyone. These two actions would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2021 at 12:04pm

Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

Originally posted by AndyPOW AndyPOW wrote:

I understand all that, and understand the differences between different reagents, differences between testing between the U.S and the U.K. tests.

What I'm asking is are the number of cases in the U.S. wildly overstated, or within the bounds of reasonable given the percentage of false positives and negatives. From my study it seems about 5% are false positives, and an even larger percentage are false negatives. That is fine. . . 


What I keep reading is the number of cycles is "ridiculously high" in order to vastly increase the number of "cases". There is a lot, and I mean a lot, of propaganda and disinformation out there. Is "the PCR tests intentionally overstating cases" in the same garbage dump as "masks are dangerous, and the Danish study proves it", or are the tests reasonably accurate?

Andy, I think the global numbers have passed the point where we need to know exact figures of who has had it, who has got it etc. The key thing I take from it all is that in certain countries the virus is endemic, it's everywhere and it's spreading unchecked. Even if Biden threw millions of dollars at testing, what's the point? The genie is out of the bottle in the US and now the effort should be put into treating those with it. While you have increasing numbers of people dying, other non covid people being turned away from hospitals and a medical system overwhelmed, then the disease is speaking for itself.


Yes, good points. I'm getting frustrated dealing with confirmation bias and belief-based world views, and was looking for evidence. Perhaps the best route to go is use hospitalizations. Either that or just let the intentionally stupid go their merry way. 

"Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2021 at 1:26pm

I agree the only numbers that count are the Dead,and those in hospital....

Thing is people have to realise this is happening in real time...... If they disbelieve ,those people need to go to their ER and volunteer to help move the dead .........

maybe then they might get it !!!!!!!(not covid) lol.....

take care all 😷😉





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Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2021 at 11:19am

"I have some faith in Biden, but he can't perform miracles.  He can't bring the dead back to life.  He can't un-infect the infected.  He can't make the test accurate."

He also probably can't make people who think running around not wearing masks is their right (ignoring others' right to life and health) wear masks.  And honestly, I'm getting sick of people who say, "If you're afraid, don't go out."  Some people who still have jobs and must support families have to go out.  My mother has chronic pain and must go out to Pain Clinic every so often because she is prescribed morphine.  And some people have illnesses and injuries and must go out to the doctor, dentist, chiropractor.  Yet, early in the pandemic, my mother had to be hospitalized, and afterward stayed at a facility for occupational therapy, i.e., so she could return home.  Between the two places several people weren't properly wearing masks, and my mother called out every one.  

When you have to go out, and people are shirking their responsibilities to be safe out in the world, they endanger others.  And this is why this disease is spreading in the US.  Put simply, safety vs. personal rights in the States is a false dichotomy.  Some forget that with every right comes with a corresponding responsibility.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2021 at 1:57pm

Originally posted by ViQueen24 ViQueen24 wrote:

"I have some faith in Biden, but he can't perform miracles.  He can't bring the dead back to life.  He can't un-infect the infected.  He can't make the test accurate."

He also probably can't make people who think running around not wearing masks is their right (ignoring others' right to life and health) wear masks.  And honestly, I'm getting sick of people who say, "If you're afraid, don't go out."  Some people who still have jobs and must support families have to go out.  My mother has chronic pain and must go out to Pain Clinic every so often because she is prescribed morphine.  And some people have illnesses and injuries and must go out to the doctor, dentist, chiropractor.  Yet, early in the pandemic, my mother had to be hospitalized, and afterward stayed at a facility for occupational therapy, i.e., so she could return home.  Between the two places several people weren't properly wearing masks, and my mother called out every one.  

When you have to go out, and people are shirking their responsibilities to be safe out in the world, they endanger others.  And this is why this disease is spreading in the US.  Put simply, safety vs. personal rights in the States is a false dichotomy.  Some forget that with every right comes with a corresponding responsibility.


Very well stated. My wife is a type 1 diabetic. 

"Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett
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