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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

China's New Outbreak

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WitchMisspelled View Drop Down
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    Posted: May 20 2020 at 8:59am

China's new outbreak shows signs the virus may be changing and it's making it harder to diagnose changes before it spreads.  Gird your loins for the second wave, people!

https://www.bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-outbreak/china-sees-signs-new-cluster-carries-virus-longer-than-in-wuhan 

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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2020 at 10:42am

Thanks for that link.  It is bad news, but we should know that.  

Will we have to extend the two week quarantines, possibly back to their original 40 days?

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FluMom View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2020 at 10:59am

Here is the big question:  If people have had the Covid 19 in the first wave are they going to get it again in the second wave?    China could be a good way to find this out IF THEY ARE HONEST about  who is sick and how many.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2020 at 11:22am

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

Gird your loins for the second wave, people!


Oh, I’m girding  


"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2020 at 12:27pm

'And mine are girt also.

FluMom.  With a new virus, we just do not know.  The most likely senario is that those who have had it in wave 1 will get a slightly milder infection in wave 2 than the previouslu uninfected, but that is far from certain.  They could be automatically on course for the kawasaki-type-disease seen in some children currently, or a cytokine storm, or even no difference from the reactions of the uninfected.  Personal genetics could also spread the differences out so we see all four reactions in different peoples.

Sorry, I could not give you a straighter answer.

ERCD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2020 at 12:35pm

I honestly believe China would tell us if they knew.  Sadly, like us, they probably don't know yet.

Whatever happens, I don't expect it to be good.

Opening things up again before the virus is defeated properly, is like taking antibiotics only until you feel a bit better.  When the disease comes back, the drugs don't work the second time.  We (and the USA is only one offender out of many, the UK and Russia are just as bad and Brazil is worse) are trying hard to write our own death warrant here.  I'm praying for an attack of common sense,  - but not hopefull.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2020 at 4:46pm

Your gird your loins comment made me laugh this morning while drinking coffee and coffee is not meant to go through your nose, yet it did. LOL Don't hear that saying very often.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2020 at 5:14pm

Cheer uo, AI.  If you can smell the nasal coffee, you are covid free: probably.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2020 at 7:32pm

Oh we are going to have a second wave no doubt but when is the question.  I am not going back to work at my school but hope to be able to work with kids on line.  I did this in the spring and it works ok.  The schools in Denver Metro Area are doing a "Hybrid" learning.  One day in the school with only 9 students and 1 teacher in the room once a week,  no gym no cafeteria (eat in the classroom bag lunch) so all kids get one day a week with their teacher.  The rest of the days will be online learning with the teacher and I hope some of the paraprofessionals.     This is the model across all of Denver Metro Schools.  If the virus gets bad then they will all go back to all online.

No one knows what is going to happen,  I am glad they are opening now to see how this goes.  It would be worse to do opening in August or September because that is when most schools start and if opening is bad then it will not affect the start of school.   No matter what if you have 2 working parents one will have to be home at least 4 days a week.    No more babysitting services 5 days a week.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2020 at 10:56pm

Flumom, that is an interesting model to try and open schools....it will definitely limit the spread of viruses.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 21 2020 at 12:40am

From the article; (China had the B-type, now has to deal with a A or C type-PNAS study-maybe no mutations needed)

Officials now believe that the new cluster stemmed from contact with infected arrivals from Russia, which has one of the worst outbreaks in Europe. Genetic sequencing has showed a match between the northeast cases and Russian-linked ones, said Qiu.

[url]https://www.pnas.org/content/117/17/9241[/url];

In a phylogenetic network analysis of 160 complete human severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) genomes, we find three central variants distinguished by amino acid changes, which we have named A, B, and C, with A being the ancestral type according to the bat outgroup coronavirus. The A and C types are found in significant proportions outside East Asia, that is, in Europeans and Americans. In contrast, the B type is the most common type in East Asia, and its ancestral genome appears not to have spread outside East Asia without first mutating into derived B types, pointing to founder effects or immunological or environmental resistance against this type outside Asia.

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