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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Coronavirus: RoM

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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Coronavirus: RoM
    Posted: January 28 2020 at 1:41am
Rate of Mortality

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

China only

Cases      4,527     

Deaths 106

RoM 2.341%

These number will change over time
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2020 at 11:34pm
cases 6,016     

deaths 132

RoM 2.1
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 2:39am
There are currently 6,147 confirmed cases worldwide, including 132 fatalities.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 11:46pm
There are currently 7,847 confirmed cases worldwide, including 170 fatalities.

RoM 2.1%

That RoM is holding true
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AlexSun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 12:19am
8:08 first case in India!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 1:02pm
There are currently 7,935 confirmed cases worldwide, including 170 fatalities.

still 2.1%
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 1:17pm
Thanks, Kilt! The correct term to use is CFR = "Case Fatality Ratio."   We also say "Case Fatality Rate."   

For comparison: The CFR for rabies is essentially 100%; for smallpox, about 50%; for Ebola in the ongoing epidemic in West Africa, about 50%.   Influenza CFR during a typical outbreak is only 1% or less.

Coronas are not very efficient killers.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AlexSun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 1:26pm
Actually 8262 cases and 171 death right now

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 2:07pm
I still maintain my earlier point. The CFR figures are distorted by the huge length of time between infection and death.

I don't know what they will be. Let me stress that again. I DONT KNOW WHAT THEY WILL BE. I do know they are distorted by the length of time spent dying.

There are other hidden factors too. There may still be huge numbers undiagnosed which will substantially lower the figure, but there may also be deaths unlinked in the statistics, or as yet unndiscovered, which will raise the figure.

The current distortedCFR is however convenient for avoiding panic, so no one will argue with that publically yet - not untill the outbreak is over.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AlexSun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 2:51pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 4:27pm
Wow! So many cases, such a huge spread! I wonder how soon we will lose track of it.

Thanks Alex!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 5:03am
There are currently 9,927 confirmed cases worldwide, including 213 fatalities.

still 2.1%
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote AlexSun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 5:16am
According to bnonews.com we have around 1527 serious and 348 critical cases. Do we have a number guy who can make some predictions about them? My thoughts are that those are the real percentage we looking for!

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 5:29am
Sorry, Alex. It's a great question and I would love to calculate that. But my numbers are inaccurate at best, my higher maths AWOL (I can't remember how to do calculus - it's been 45 years since I needed it!) and the information I used to calculate the length of time an average person took to die (which included times and dates of ICU admissions) has changed, the relevant stuff has dissappeard from the site. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jS24DjSPVWa4iuxuD4OAXrE3QeI8c9BC1hSlqr-NMiU/edit#gid=1187587451 It was published from China, so what did I expect!

I am pretty sure of my CFR range, although many would disagree with me, but I can't even hazzard an educated guess at that one.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AlexSun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 5:39am
Thanks for reply Technophobe, great chart as well! Maybe someone else it'll see this and we'll have an answer!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 5:56am
Well thank you for the vote of confidence. Sadly, some of the information I used has now DISSAPPEARED from that site. It did have 2 highlighted sections listing the dates of diagnosis, symptom onset, admission to ICU and death for groups of about a dozen people each. Those sections are the bits that have gone.

No, I'm wrong. I just double checked and the figures are still there, it is only the highlighting which has gone. That is pretty good for China, I maligned them unfairly. I notice the cumulative figures have gone but they can be recovered with a bit of work.

NO PROMISES, but if I get a minute I will try over a small section of the figures. I am utterly computer illiterate*, so working out a figure over a large test-pool is beyond me. But I will have a go over a few figures at both the front and current sections of information for comparison and draw a freehand graph (no calculus!) to project.

If you can talk anyone else into this you might get more accurate results!






*The choice of Technophobe as a title is not ironic.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 6:12am
Kilts the CFR is not based only on recorded numbers alone as it paints a dire picture and scares the $hit out of people. CFR is made up of fatalities, recorded cases, and an estimate on unrecorded cases.

I'm hearing there are lot of unrecorded cases.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 8:08am
Technophobe: I thought the data was gone yesterday also. But click on the line list tab, looks like it's all still there, just moved/hidden a bit.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 4:11pm
There are currently 11,948 confirmed cases worldwide, including 259 fatalities.

CFR 2.1%
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 4:15pm
Originally posted by cobber cobber wrote:

Kilts the CFR is not based only on recorded numbers alone as it paints a dire picture and scares the $hit out of people. CFR is made up of fatalities, recorded cases, and an estimate on unrecorded cases.

I'm hearing there are lot of unrecorded cases.


I look at fatalities divided by 1% of known cases - and as the sample is 11,000 or more the statistics means the numbers are close to reality.

We have no clue about unknown cases - so I work with what we know

and the mortality rate is 2.1% by my calculations
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2020 at 2:58pm
There are currently 13,950 confirmed cases worldwide, including 304 fatalities.

still a mortality rate of 2.17%
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2020 at 9:30pm
There are currently 14,556 confirmed cases worldwide, including 305 fatalities.

2% exactly
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2020 at 5:02pm
There are currently 17,388 confirmed cases worldwide, including 362 fatalities.

still 2%

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote quietprepr Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2020 at 5:07pm
About a 300% (math isn't my strong suit!)increase from your first post in this thread on the 28th. I wonder what the real numbers are...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2020 at 11:25pm
There are currently 17,393 confirmed cases worldwide, including 362 fatalities.

2,296 serious
475 recovered
21,558 suspected
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 12:02am
(Kilt, check this out! Be glad we are not living in the Chinese Death Star right now!)

A Chinese media outlet covering the deadly coronavirus in the country has raised suspicion about the actual death toll of the illness after local doctors said they have been cremating victims of the disease in secret.

"Also, one thing that #China is hiding is the number of death caused by the virus," tweeted Deutsche Welle reporter William Yang. "Credible Chinese media outlet @initiumnews interviewed people working at local cremation centers, confirming that many dead bodies were sent directly from the hospitals to the cremation centers."

As the official death toll in China eclipsed 170 on Thursday, Hong Kong–based digital outlet Initium Media published an article interviewing doctors who said they were sending dead victims of the virus to be cremated.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 12:24am
its not happening outside of china - if it was that bad there would be lots of deaths outside of china as well

and there is only 1 in the Philippines and he was Chinese from Wuhan

There are currently 17,406 confirmed cases worldwide, including 362 fatalities.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pandemic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 2:00am
Interesting, only 1 death outside of China...why ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 2:25am
Lag, It's lag in the spread.

   13 days ago this took off( official reporting?) and the incubation is 4-14 days?

   Or if you go back to 12/31 .....it's just 33 days, that's seriously a short time for such a long incubation period to gather all the results needed to properly figure this out.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 4:25am
Incubation 7 - 14 days, time spent slowly dying up to a month (average 13 days after sympton onset).

That is a time lag of 7 - 42 days! The mean and average work out roughly the same: 23 days. For a person in the West to die now, we would expect them to have been infected around 12th January. Not so many Western sufferers then.

Having said that, I now expect the CFR to drop. There does seem to be an effective treatment out there.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 4:38am
we will see how many die outside of China - if few then the situation is manageable

There are currently 17,486 confirmed cases worldwide, including 362 fatalities.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pandemic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 5:27am
Interesting, thanks.i was reading that major clusters are expected to form outside of China. Not that I want to be doom like.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 7:40am
The John Hopkins site only records cases outside China back to the 20th - when there were only 4. I can't remember how many cases were outside China back on the 12th.

Even only comparing the figures back to the 20th, the CFR outside China would be huge. But a test subject cohort of only 4 people is just not large enough to extrapolate from.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lonewolf Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 9:11am
Cant remember where so i camt substantiate it but i read that asian lungs are genetically different than caucasion so a virus with pneumonia might affect each differently
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 9:27am
Here are some statistics from the American Lung Association.

Deaths From Pneumonia

8 percent higher among blacks
21 percent higher among American Indians or Alaska Natives
6 percent lower among Asians or Pacific Islanders
18 percent lower among Hispanics

My knowledge of genetics is insufficient to approach that question from the DNA side. But an approach should be possible to some.



https://www.lung.org/assets/documents/research/pi-trend-report.pdf
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 9:07pm
There are currently 20,629 confirmed cases worldwide, including 427 fatalities.

The mortality is still 2%

But the question now is the r0 - how many people does each infected person infect

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 11:22pm
Originally posted by Kilt5 Kilt5 wrote:

The mortality is still 2%


BUT if you use for calculation only those case the have been resolved [deaths 426, recovered 576] you get a mortality rate of 42.6% !

The trouble is about 95% of the reported cases are still classed as having the virus, and it is not sure how many of these will recover or not.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 11:26pm
Personally I wouldnt believe any numbers coming out of China....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 11:28pm
Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

Personally I wouldnt believe any numbers coming out of China....


I agree. They seem to be rushing mortalities to cremation without reporting.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 04 2020 at 5:10am
its not spreading like wildfire in other countries
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 04 2020 at 5:17am
You seem to be right there Kilt, but remember the latency period. That affects the numbers showing up as infected, as does the asympyomatic, paucisymptomatic and undiscovered.

I hope you stay right. You could - easily. But it is not guaranteed. It is a race, and we do not know which side us-v-virus will win yet.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 04 2020 at 5:21am
I feel the need to clarify that:

The virus does not 'want' to wipe us out. It 'wants' to breed, thrive and spread. It 'wants' to become endemic.

We want to stop it completely. We want to make it extinct!

That is the race. I believe China has lost it already, India is about to lose it and the rest of us, who knows?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 04 2020 at 3:21pm
There are currently 23,867 confirmed cases worldwide, including 492 fatalities.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 05 2020 at 4:37am
There are currently 24,584 confirmed cases worldwide, including 493 fatalities.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pandemic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 05 2020 at 5:15am
5 day doubling time is indicated. If the trajectory is correct, tomorrow will be approx 30,000 cases confirmed, though the number of fatalities is a lower increase than previous day, I believe.
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