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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Coronavirus: RoM

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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 16 2020 at 3:09pm
1,000 more cases and 100 more deaths - this is serious
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 16 2020 at 4:25pm
 There are currently 71,231 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,770 fatalities.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 16 2020 at 5:43pm
 There are currently 71,330 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,775 fatalities.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 16 2020 at 7:44pm
There are currently 71,332 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,775 fatalities.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 17 2020 at 3:40am
There are currently 71,440 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,775 fatalities.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 17 2020 at 9:35pm
 There are currently 73,335 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,874 fatalities.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2020 at 4:35am
Originally posted by Kilt5 Kilt5 wrote:

<strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 17.6px; vertical-align: line; color: rgb0, 0, 0; font-family: "PT Serif", sans-serif; : rgb255, 255, 255;">There are currently 71,332 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,775 fatalities.


And this was Feb.4 - 14 days ago approx...
Posted: 04 February 2020 at 3:21pm
There are currently 23,867 confirmed cases worldwide, including 492 fatalities.

So there's been lots of discussion re: figuring out CFR from 'when sick' to death total vs current number of sick to death total. So does 23,867 divided by 1775 for 13.44% make sense?
Now 2 big problems I see with this-
a) these are working off the 'official numbers' (enuf said)
b) this isn't counting all the mild cases that were never diagnosed/not counted etc
Still trying to figure out 'why' so deadly there and not elsewhere. Is it truly an 'Asian thing' (sorry - I know that's a terrible way to say it but no coffee and simply can't think of a better/more technical way) but I mean something there environmentally, or the lung proteins etc, or are all the videos' leaked on twitter, facebook etc horse pucky and something else completely is going on?
If it's to be - it's up to me!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2020 at 4:50am
Spot on all around. There are far too many unanswered questions to get an accurate figure. The maths is good, the data crap.
ERCD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2020 at 4:59am
Usually, at the end of an outbreak, the true CFR emerges.   Because of the discrepancy between date of infection and date of death, it always rises past the estimates made during the outbreak.

I don't know what this one will do. It could go up, hugely up, down or more likely than all those, never be truly known. China is so secretive! Real data is unicorn poo - or at least as rare.   We are still guessing at the official R0 and that is only based on figures about a week behind symptoms appearing, not the longer period to death. The infection rate will have to be calculated from people outside China. 'And the cohort for that study is still quite small.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2020 at 9:43am


   Don't forget, the official death toll does not count those who die untested (confirmed)....and with cremation capacity over stretched one can only guess.

   
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2020 at 9:48am
Absolutely, but the untested who recover are not counted either.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2020 at 10:19am



Health report from China says over 80% of virus cases have been mild

By Marilynn Marchione

AP CHIEF MEDICAL WRITER

Health officials in China have published the first details on nearly 45,000 cases of the novel coronavirus

disease that originated there, saying more than 80% have been mild and new ones seem to be falling since

early this month, although it's far too soon to tell whether the outbreak has peaked.


Monday's report from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention gives the World Health

Organization a 'clearer picture of the outbreak, how it's developing and where it's headed,' WHO's director general said at a news conference.


'It's too early to tell if this reported decline will continue. Every scenario is still on the table,' Tedros

Adhanom Ghebreyesus said.


The new disease, called COVID-19, first emerged in late December in Wuhan, the capital of China's Hubei

province, and has spread to more than two dozen other countries.


China says more than 70,000 people have been infected and 1,770 have died in mainland China, but

numbers are squishy because the country is counting many cases based on symptoms rather than the

methods WHO uses.


The new study reports on 44,672 cases confirmed in China as of Feb. 11. The virus caused severe disease

such as pneumonia in 14% of them and critical illness in 5%.


The fatality rate for these confirmed cases is 2.3% — 2.8% for males versus 1.7% for females.


That's lower than for SARS and MERS, two similar viruses, but COVID-19 ultimately could prove more

deadly if it spreads to far more people than the others did.


Ordinary flu has a fatality rate of 0.1% yet kills hundreds of thousands because it infects millions each year.

The COVID-19 cases include relatively fewchildren, and the risk of death rises with age. It's higher among those with other health problems — more

than 10% for those with heart disease, for example, and higher among those in Hubei province versus

elsewhere in China.


Cases seem to have been declining since Feb. 1, but that could change as people return to work and school

after the Chinese holidays, the report warns.


Also Monday, Chinese officials said they may postpone the country's annual congress in March, its biggest

political meeting of the year. The standing committee for the National People's Congress said it believes it is

necessary to postpone the gathering to give top priority to people's lives, safety and health, the official X

inhua News Agency reported.


The standing committee said it would meet Feb. 24 to deliberate on a postponement. The meeting is due to

start March 5.


Japanese officials, meanwhile, confirmed 99 more people were infected by the new virus aboard the

quarantined cruise ship Diamond Princess, bringing the total to 454. The Health Ministry said it has now

tested 1,723 people on the ship, which had about 3,700 passengers and crew aboard. Outside China, the ship

has the largest number of cases of COVID-19.


On Sunday night and Monday, 328 American cruise ship passengers arrived in the U.S., including 14 who

tested positive for the virus and were taken to hospitals in California and Nebraska. Others were being

quarantined at military bases in California and Texas.


A charter plane dropped off 170 passengers at Travis Air Force Base in the San Francisco Bay area late

Sunday, while another took about 145 passengers to Lackland Air Force Base in Texas early Monday.

CRS, DrPH
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2020 at 2:34pm
There are currently 73,436 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,875 fatalities.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2020 at 5:38pm
There are currently 75,199 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,009 fatalities.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2020 at 5:40pm
Mortality Rate

2.6%
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2020 at 9:14pm
2,000 dead

There are currently 75,201 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,010 fatalities.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 19 2020 at 8:08pm
There are currently 75,727 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,128 fatalities.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2020 at 10:26pm
There are currently 76,727 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,247 fatalities.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 3:49pm
There are currently 77,272 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,251 fatalities.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 8:07pm
There are currently 77,815 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,360 fatalities.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:26pm
There are currently 77,985 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,362 fatalities.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 2:40am
There are currently 80,298 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,706 fatalities.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 3:33am
China's official figures (24.2.2020) of 77 262 cases and 2 595 deaths give a Confirmed Case Fatality Rate of 3,6%.  

This is nearly double what people are commonly reporting with the CFR being about 2%.  Either this is too low, or China has not tested nearly half of its serious cases.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 4:12am
Who knows? It's China!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pandemic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 5:19am
Of course, stats can be quoted however, but if you fall into a certain category like 'aged' or 'vulnerable group' then these stats have little meaning. To quote an overall fatality rate or serious case rate is just that...OVERALL...

The %%%% is much higher in one cohort like 'over 60s' or 'ill group' though as we learning, not exclusively so!.


Ive been reading in certain media that it is killing mainly the old and people who are ill ! This is little comfort.

The tone of some people seems unempathic
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 6:01am
Oh yes! Lack of empathy does seem common where this is concerned.

Hubby and I are no Brad Pit and Angelina Jolie. We are not pretty, young or rich. But we are very much in love, have been since the day we met (literally!*) and the thought of one of us facing this life without the other is unbearable. We can't be alone in that.

Many of us are old, or less than well, or both. We still matter. The thought of possibly losing FluMom's knowledge is scary in itself.





* I was running a religious group. He came to visit (to vet us out; check we were not a dangerous cult!) and we spent the evening discussing string theory - and its effects on religion, superconsiousness and synchronicity. At the end of the evening we found we had been ignoring everyone else. You don't meet many religious people with an understanding of science. It turns out (for us) brains are the sexiest thing of all.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 6:31am
If I go guys you will all be fine and so will I. I have Brest cancer and I am calm during that why, “If I die I will be with God and if I live I will be happy every day that I am here to be near my son .” Lol son is 2.5 hours away but I can talk to him. I learned by reading you guys will do the same if us old people go . Do not worry!
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Thank you for your wisdom and guidance
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 7:38am
Never stop fighting FluMom. It would be a darker forum without you.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pandemic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 9:56am
Interesting observation:

Though early days, the fatality rate / serious case rate seems relatively higher in places like Korea and Italy, bearing in mind that the numbers have suddenly risen.

I thought that deaths and serious cases are a late complication!.

Any thoughts ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 10:35am
Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

Never stop fighting FluMom. It would be a darker forum without you.


   Agreed!
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2020 at 2:25am
There are currently 82,401 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,805 fatalities.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2020 at 9:17am
Kilt, you have to realize that many cases are mild and not likely counted in the deonimator of the Case Fatality Rate (deaths/cases).  I posit that the CFR is far less than the 2 to 3% being discussed in the media.

We won't know until much later, when more of the population at large has been tested for exposure.

That being said, there are significant mortalities.  I'd like to know more about the statistics on this (average age, preexisting conditions etc.)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2020 at 1:38pm
There are currently 82,782 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,814 fatalities.
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Crs- I have appreciated your posts. Above is a link that might help. Thank you. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2020 at 3:09pm
My calcs on CFR is around 0.3%
2-3% is wrong
The R0 is R2.5 at a 10 day cycle. (it will vary country to country slightly)

The severity of the virus and numbers ill at the same time is the biggest concern. It will rock financial markets hugely. The economy is at significant risk.

The virus itself is a powderpuff.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 28 2020 at 4:02am

 There are currently 83,715 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,859 fatalities.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 29 2020 at 6:21pm

Originally posted by Kilt5 Kilt5 wrote:

 There are currently 83,715 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,859 fatalities.



There are currently 86,979 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,978 fatalities. 

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There are currently 89,212 confirmed cases worldwide, including 3,050 fatalities.

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There are 95,429 confirmed cases worldwide, including 3,285 fatalities.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2020 at 3:18pm
cases 105,381 


deaths 3570
TOTAL105,8313,570
TOTAL105,8313,570
TOTAL105,8313,570
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