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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Country data

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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Joined: April 03 2013
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    Posted: April 24 2020 at 11:22am

One of my ways of trying to "keep a handle" on what is happening with Corvid19 is by keeping my own database of country data.  I use the WHO situation reports as the basis, which are a few days out of date, but if gives a good picture of what countries are officially saying.

One problem with this "hobby" of mine, is that as I enter the data I keep finding myself saying "I don't believe that", or "the country is hiding something".   

With the USA just reaching the CFR rate of 5, we all realise that this high figure is due to a lack of testing and it seems that most countries are in the same boat or worst (eg the UK is closing in on a CFR of 14!).


However, there are a number of countries who have been willing to publish cases but seem to be suppressing/delaying the information on numbers of deaths.  Excluding some small countries (where even 1 or 2 deaths could make quite a change to the statistics), and African countries (as they seem to have been hit far later than other areas) the following countries are all claiming a CFR of less than 1 - A claim I find difficulty believing in

Bahrain

Belarus

Brunai Darussalam

Costa Rica 

Kazakhstan

Kuwait

Malta 

Oman

Palestinian Territories

Qatar   

Russia

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Uzbekistan


I could add Hong Kong and Singapore to that list, but they seem to have been well up with testing and tracing - in Singapore's case there has been a recent explosion of cases amongst immigrant workers that is still in its early days before deaths could be expected.   But for the other countries I have a hard time believing the official data.

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