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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Covid over in 30 days

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Technophobe View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2021 at 4:32pm

Zerohedge, Cobber, really ? 

I give up!  

ERCD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2021 at 5:30pm

Firstly I'm not saying the virus doesn't exist. I'm saying its order of magnitude is somewhere close to the Asian and Hong Kong flus of the 50's and 60's. During those pandemics the world was not shut down. They made a mark in history, and we still talk about them today, but they weren't slate wipers. They mainly killed people with comorbidity and the elderly, which is the same as Covid.


I'm over the alarmist BS. I don't appreciate being called names. So please...


The numbers in the UK are closer to 1000 per day. Which is a lot, but considering that they use the WHO method to evaluate Covid deaths changes the result somewhat. The WHO test method says that if you test positive to Covid within 28 days of dying. You are marked down as a Covid death. This is even if you had Covid, got over it and died of something else.


The test that the WHO recommends was a PCR test with 40 cycles. Since May Last year we knew that 40 cycles would give a huge number of false positives. The WHO argued to keep it high on the grounds of "safety first". They changed their method literally the day Biden was sworn in. So both, case numbers and deaths will drop. 


Read into that what you will. 


I'm willing to bet money that the story over the next few months is, the vaccine is a miracle. The narrative will be Biden's war on Covid fought with the vaccine. Look at the amazing results. I also expect the story to get out that we need to be hero's and put a trillion dollars into vaccinating the third world. This will be at tax payers expense. 


Faucci just came out and said the WHO needs more funding. Literally the day after Biden was sworn in. This is a joke. The WHO is a political front. They made every call incorrectly. Case in point: We calculated 0.3% CFR in February last year. Its very easy to calculate. Surprisingly so. The WHO are only just starting to publish numbers close to this. The WHO are a Propaganda front. You are as dumb as $hit if you thing otherwise


It makes me angry that this deception goes on. 


Zero Hedge have been right on many occasions. Usually they are the first with real journalism. Again with the Ad Hominem attacks.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2021 at 9:46pm

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

I don't really have good answers for you yet.

Yes, the vaccines do make you imune to the disease in most cases (but not all - however 90 or 95% is a good score) and protect against severe disease in the other few vaccinated.   So they make good sense.  For those strains not covered (possibly the Brazilian) as they protect against the other strains, and thereby eliminate the post covid damage, they give some protection even there.

We are also hoping that if enough people are vaccinated, then we can achieve the fabled 'herd immunity'.  But the answer to that question is not simple.  The R0 goes up and down as new strains appear and as lockdowns and other methods are tried.  It is a goal, but we do not yet know how many have to have had the disease to achieve it.  We could make a few educated guesses, but then another strain emerges and it is back to the drawing board.  Just dropping the number of transmissions, will save many lives.


Basically, they do prevent disease in most cases and along with that at least reduce transmission (immune people still need to wash their hands).


No vaccine ever protects everyone (except in those cases where the disease goes extinct - like smallpox).  But protecting most people can be enough to improve things beyond all measure.  Don't let the perfect get in the way of the good.

So Techno, on this evening's news we had yet another clip from the BBC saying that scientists weren't sure if the vaccine would stop you catching covid. What it would do is stop so many people having a serious bout of it, but they said more than once that they don't know if it actually stops you from catching it, and they still believe that you will be infectious to other people even if you are vaccinated. They showed an animation saying that they believed that vaccinated people would still catch covid but the disease would stay in the upper airways (and they showed the mouth and throat in red) but wouldn't be deep seated and go into the lungs, and they said that upper respiratory cases are still contagious. 

I can't find evidence to support what you said about the vaccine making you immune to the disease. I wish I could and I'm hoping that you can provide the sources for that info for me as I really hope the vaccine can put an end to this, but from all that I've read, all I can find are claims that that it stops 90 odd % of recipients from developing serious complications. I suspect that because these vaccines are in the experimental stages and haven't carried out full safety trials, that simply enough time hasn't passed to find out the true effect the vaccines have on the disease. I'm still looking for clarification as there seems to be so much disinformation out there. 

My conclusion is that the vaccines available simply prevent the majority of people from getting seriously ill and therefore will save the health system. They will save lives by allowing the health system to function properly again and thereby allow other routine lifesaving medical procedures to go ahead in a timely manner.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 12:40am

It's too early to tell if the vaccines provide sterilizing immunity.


"The vaccine trials looked very closely at whether the vaccines prevented becoming infected with symptomatic COVID and the results were that both mRNA vaccines provided about 95% protection from that and just about 100% protection from severe illness.  That's huge in and of itself.  Beyond that, Moderna did look at a sub-population after the first dose and saw a lot less asymptomatic infections vs. placebo, but the sample size wasn't large enough to be definitive, although it's likely that that is the case.  In addition, as per my post above, in the Israeli vaccinations, they're seeing very high immune responses (up to 20X vs. infected/recovered patients), which makes it very likely that any infections that do result will likely not be serious and would be less likely to be infectious. 

 

But for now, we simply don't have definitive data on sterilizing immunity (where vaccinated people simply can't become infected, which is seen for some vaccines, but not others) or even the degree to which vaccinated, but infected people might still be infectious - we'd need data on viral loads of these people, along with well documented contact-transmission cases, which we simply don't have yet.  But it's known that vaccinated people will be infected far less than non-vaccinated people, so that reduced transmissions and it's a damn good guess to assume that vaccinated people who do get infected will, on average be less infectious than non-vaccinated people.  

 

We also have no indications that any of the new variants won't be protected against by the mRNA vaccines (and some work has been done to show that these variants should be protected against by the vaccines).  Eventually, variants could evolve which partially or completely escape vaccine protection, but the good news there is that when that happens, at least for the mRNA vaccines, producing a modified vaccine effective for that variant should only take 6-8 weeks - it wouldn't be guesswork.  But yes, many are speculating that the virus eventually becomes endemic, but more like the common cold, as per the article below."  

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/health/coronavirus-immunity-future.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 8:05am

KiwiMum, the original figures published by Pfizer and Moderna were my main source, added to a pattern exhibited by vaccines in general.  

That is the best I can offer, until more is known.  Call it educated guesses if you wish.  I did say I had no good answers to that one.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 8:43am

Originally posted by cobber cobber wrote:

The numbers in the UK are closer to 1000 per day. Which is a lot, but considering that they use the WHO method to evaluate Covid deaths changes the result somewhat. The WHO test method says that if you test positive to Covid within 28 days of dying. You are marked down as a Covid death. This is even if you had Covid, got over it and died of something else.

'And now they are finding covid deaths long after the 28 day period.  So the two sets of antagonistic numbers even out somewhat.  The current figure for the UK is 1,200 by the way and we are a small country.  

So what if the victims are usually older?   They are still people.  The huge case numbers also give more chances to mutate.


Originally posted by cobber cobber wrote:

The test that the WHO recommends was a PCR test with 40 cycles. Since May Last year we knew that 40 cycles would give a huge number of false positives. The WHO argued to keep it high on the grounds of "safety first". They changed their method literally the day Biden was sworn in. So both, case numbers and deaths will drop.
Yep, this will drop the case numbers.  It can't change the death rate though.  Test results show what is happening (or fail to), but they can't actually alter the numbers of sick and dying, only the tally of the sick.


Originally posted by cobber cobber wrote:

I'm willing to bet money that the story over the next few months is, the vaccine is a miracle. The narrative will be Biden's war on Covid fought with the vaccine. Look at the amazing results. I also expect the story to get out that we need to be hero's and put a trillion dollars into vaccinating the third world. This will be at tax payers expense.
Personally, I never minded paying a bit more to save lives.


Originally posted by cobber cobber wrote:

Faucci just came out and said the WHO needs more funding. Literally the day after Biden was sworn in. This is a joke. The WHO is a political front. They made every call incorrectly. Case in point: We calculated 0.3% CFR in February last year. Its very easy to calculate. Surprisingly so. The WHO are only just starting to publish numbers close to this. The WHO are a Propaganda front. You are as dumb as $hit if you thing otherwise

As dumb as $hit?  Now who is name calling?   What did I say that was as bad as that?

Faucci is an expert, and can finally say what he thinks.  

Yes, the WHO is political, but we still need them.   Being a member of the WHO gives more opportunites to change it from within.  It does need reform.  But just because they are crap at the job, does not mean the job is unnecessary.  He who pays the piper calls the tune.   With the USA out of the WHO, China called the tune.  


Finally:  Yes, Zerohedge have sometimes got stuff right, especially where financial investment is concerned; I won £600 on the lottery once, I don't have a hot line to correct numbers though.  

They however, all the time, are a far-right blog, not a right-leaning one or even a right-wing one.  They are a source of far-right conspiracy theories.  Their "Tyler Durden"  is in fact, Daniel Ivandjiiski**, who has been done for insider trading by the way.  To date Google ads, paypal, twitter have all banned the site for reasons of violation of policy standards. (With Google it was inciting hatred and violence.)  Facebook banned them too, but that was for rather less fair reasons of their own.  In that case (and that case only) Zerohedge was in the right.  






**Tyler Durden then was a son of a soviet (When Bulgaria was still within the Soviet union) who was a member of the "international Organisation of Journalists" which is a Russian propaganda organisation.  This does not mean he is a Putin Puppet, or that he follows in his dad's footsteps, but he is happy to stir trouble and there is no smoke without fire as they say.  Again, personally, I think he is only interested in moneymaking for himself, the harms done are not partisan, merely selfish.

But, in March 2020, American journalist Seth Hettena wrote an opinion-piece in The New Republic titled "Is Zero Hedge a Russian Trojan Horse?", and provided details on the links between Krassimir Ivandjiiski (the site publisher's Bulgarian father), and Soviet-era activities in propaganda, revealed during litigation initiated by the father against Hettena in the Bulgarian courts. Hettena commented that Zero Hedge has become "a forum for the hateful, conspiracy-driven voices of the angry white men of the alt-right. Racists, anti-Semites, extreme right-wingers, and conspiracy nuts were an underserved audience, and, as it turns out, a profitable one." - his words not mine.

ERCD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 9:45am

And if this disease is killing < 1% of its victims or < Spanish Influenza or < the Tokyo Trots, but is still causing months-long and perhaps life-long illness in 20-25% people that incapacitates and prevents them from working, it doesn't matter so much that it's not "The Slate Wiper".  We don't just prep for " The Slate Wiper".  IMO, people who don't take this seriously enough are begging for this virus to come and prove them wrong.  And some of them will get their wish.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (3) Thanks(3)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 10:33am

We’re so used to discussing “slate wipers” that we forgot to prepare for a long, slow burn. It doesn’t need to kill huge numbers - it just needs to overwhelm our healthcare systems. That’s exactly where we are right now. 

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 11:13am

Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:

We’re so used to discussing “slate wipers” that we forgot to prepare for a long, slow burn. It doesn’t need to kill huge numbers - it just needs to overwhelm our healthcare systems. That’s exactly where we are right now. 

Yes. I was reading in the British press about people with cancer who's treatment has been postponed, life saving operations delayed and their on going care effectively suspended. The article was saying that for many those delays may prove to be a death sentence. In an ideal world I guess we'd have 2 hospital systems: one for every day medical care and one for pandemics. 

How are you getting on at your hospital Jacksdad? It must be exhausting.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 5:58pm

I sympathise JD, our healthcare system is on its last elbows too (it fell to its knees weeks ago) and is quaking and gasping under the strain.  People have been dying for months due to lack of healthcare, which was once freely available and is now suspended or rationed.

Bernard has now lost two people to heart disease which had suspended treatments due to covid.  "The heart disease could kill you, but the covid in the hospital definitely will so it is marginally safer to wait.  Oops!"  and friends all seem to be losing people in droves.  One friend has lost 3 family members so far and counting.  A couple of friends who are cancer patients are also having their life-extending chemo delayed, because of the increased risks.  (One is terminal - probably this month, the other having surgery anyway - NO SURRENDER.)

Now is a terrible time to get sick with anything at all.  My dog has canker (ears) and needs a vet, I need the dentist and we all skipped our flu jabs (too risky.)  Every time I phone our local Doctor's surgery, it is closed.  Earmites and a filling which needs replacing are not exactly life-threatening.  The earmites can be treated with stuff bought on ebay.  But once upon a time this was all so easy.


Our NHS has been our pride and joy for the whole of my life;  free, complete, available, but not now.  


Stay safe, Pal, don't let the first vaccine dose make you complacent.

ERCD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 6:46pm

Interesting covid cases are DECREASING now throughout the US. But since Christmas was supposed to be a super spreading event with all the travel looks like everyone was wrong yet again. But it sure scared everyone out of Thanksgiving and Christmas didn't it . BAH BAH BAH.

I'm sure it has nothing to do with President BIDUM being sworn in and the time frame for the change in testing criteria. Just a coincidence right LOL 

 In what some have suggested is politicized timing, the World Health Organization on Wednesday changed the protocol for COVID-19 tests, which will result in large reductions in the numbers of positive cases. The body took this action just one hour after Joe Biden was sworn in as president of the United States.

https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/one-hour-after-biden-inaugurated-who-changes-covid-testing-criteria

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-19/covid-cases-fall-in-all-regions-even-as-u-s-faces-400-000-dead

https://www.daily-times.com/story/news/2021/01/18/covid-19-cases-reported-new-mexico-continue-decline/115327524/

https://www.thespectrum.com/story/news/2021/01/18/gda-covid-19-state-2021-01-18-ut-pstg/43330893/

https://www.courierpress.com/story/news/local/2021/01/19/indiana-covid-19-cases-update-testing/115327590/

https://www.registerguard.com/story/news/2021/01/18/gda-covid-19-state-2021-01-18-or-nreg/115327416/

“Facts don't care about your feelings.”
― Ben Shapiro
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 7:10pm

That could be a result of the WHO suggested change in testing strategies that Cobber pointed out.  But whatever the case figures are, the deaths are still rising and that is a better indication; it can't be fudged or politicisized so easily.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 10:47pm

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

But whatever the case figures are, the deaths are still rising and that is a better indication; it can't be fudged or politicisized so easily.


That is why I follow the death figures more than the case figures.  In an ideal world with widespread testing and the political will to report the actual figures then I would be following the case figures, but with so much under reporting (and changing definitions) then I feel that the death figures give a more accurate picture.  

Even with the death figures there can be much fudging of numbers (eg the UK's 'only report if within 28 days of covid', or Russia's 'only report if there are no other conditions', or China's 'don't report at all'), so 'excess deaths' is probably the best over all indicator of the total effect, as this includes both covid deaths and other deaths because 'covid patients are filling the hospital and regular treatment has been curtailed'.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 hours 26 minutes ago at 1:09pm

Our county's cases were going down the past week, but are back up again.  And PA's cases as a whole have been up since Halloween and remain high.

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