Covid-19 powderpuff vs NPIs vs Pharma?

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   Ok. So it looks like new infections are tapering off and deaths dropping off in many modern countries today. Is it because of iceberg undercounting of infections, NPIs, or effective treatments ramping up (hydroxychloriquine, zythromax, zinc) in countries that are acting proactively, or all three? I know that 1 day does not make a trend.. But what are your thoughts? 

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interwebber Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List V.I.P. Member Joined: March 21 2020 Location: Idaho Status: Offline Points: 355	Post Options Post Reply Quote interwebber Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: Covid-19 powderpuff vs NPIs vs Pharma? Posted: March 29 2020 at 11:43pm
	Ok. So it looks like new infections are tapering off and deaths dropping off in many modern countries today. Is it because of iceberg undercounting of infections, NPIs, or effective treatments ramping up (hydroxychloriquine, zythromax, zinc) in countries that are acting proactively, or all three? I know that 1 day does not make a trend.. But what are your thoughts?
	If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem!

cobber Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Admin Group Joined: August 13 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6035	Post Options Post Reply Quote cobber Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 30 2020 at 10:23am
	Its always been a powderpuff from day one. intervention or not The Case fatality Rate is well less than 1%. I think its closer to 0.5%. Still not great, but a Powderpuff in my books My figures are based off the Diamond Princess where everyone was tested. (several times) Approximately 700 infected and 8 deaths. The reason why i say less than 1% is because the average age on the ship was 58 years including all staff. The death rate among those over 70 was an incredible 9%. When you graph it out the death rate falls between 0.7-0.3%. Having said this so far people have had access to the best medical available. There were plenty of ventilators to go around. So intervention plays a role. Some mild cases if not treated properly can evolve into secondary infections, so dont hear me wrong. I'm not saying she'll be right. I'm saying good communication and we get through this relatively unscathed My gut feeling is we will soon be able to manage this virus. The medical fraternity will be able to provide care. Some countries better than others. I think its going to be prolonged, but i think it will be something we just manage until we forget about it. It will taper very soon. 3-4 weeks I still want to ride through the center of the city while its empty. I want a damn shut down, if only for that reason...

interwebber Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List V.I.P. Member Joined: March 21 2020 Location: Idaho Status: Offline Points: 355	Post Options Post Reply Quote interwebber Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 30 2020 at 11:05am
	Yes you did Cobber! I read many of your posts over the last month or so. I always thought around 1% was more likely. But either way always thought it was a lot worse than the flu and that rapid spread would easily crush the health systems around the world for awhile. But with evidence growing of anti-malarial drug coctails being effective as long as it's given before severe lung damage (ARDS) develops, I think it may be possible to knock the CFR even lower. Key in my mind is keeping shutdowns in place until manufacturing and testing is ramped up to meet the demand of early testing and early treatment. And of course keep looking at other treatments, vaccines, etc. I am hopeful that your 3-4 week prediction is correct. My daughter is supposed to get married in July. Fingers crossed.
	If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem!