Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Delta(+) variants explosion |
Post Reply |
Author | |
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95627 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Posted: November 03 2021 at 3:42am |
[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports has 151 Delta variants by now...will increase per day. AY.4.2 statistics [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected .....26,498 detections of AY.4.2 (indication numbers may go up again...clusters a.o. in NL) [url]https://twitter.com/HJWesteneng[/url] or https://twitter.com/HJWesteneng ; Growth advantage and extrapolation of AY.4.2 based on Sanger Institute data in the UK (multilevel multinomial model). Based on this data AY.4.2 seems to have a ~20% growth advantage/week over AY.4 and will become dominant in the UK in December. and another tweet ; In London, AY.43 increased slightly faster than AY.4.2, AY.46.5 at about the same as AY.4.2. Possibly because London is an international travel hub. One would estimate several dozens of new cases from these two lineages. AY.4.2 grew at a slightly lower rate than elsewhere. DJ So a look at [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.43&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.43&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected has 84,880 detections by nov.2....for AY.43...allready detected in 108 countries 3% of all India cases... So how many for AY.46.5 ? [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.46.5&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.46.5&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected "Only" 3,367 just 14 countries... So the newsest AY.117 [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.117&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.117&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected "no cases" may mean...still processing.... An older subvariant AY.3 [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.3&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.3&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected allready 65 of US cases, 79,154 cases detected...in 65 countries but the numbers are going down... Another look at [url]https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/[/url] or https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/ ....[url]https://37b32f5a-6ed9-4d6d-b3e1-5ec648ad9ed9.filesusr.com/ugd/28d8fe_266039aeb27a4465988c37adec9cd1dc.pdf[/url] or https://37b32f5a-6ed9-4d6d-b3e1-5ec648ad9ed9.filesusr.com/ugd/28d8fe_266039aeb27a4465988c37adec9cd1dc.pdf ; "Well, similar to the rules applying to classical antmicrobial antbiotcs, it is paramount that our self-made ‘antviral antbiotcs’ are made available in sufcient concentraton and are tailored at the specifc features of our enemy. This is why in case of bacterial disease it is critcal to not only chose the right type of antbiotc (based on the results from an antbiogram) but to also take the antbiotc for long enough (according to the prescripton). Failure to comply with these requirements is at risk of grantng microbes a chance to survive and hence, may cause the disease to fare up. A very similar mechanism may also apply to viruses, especially to viruses that can easily and rapidly mutate (which is, for example, the case with Coronaviruses); when the pressure exerted by the army’s (read: populaton’s) immune defense starts to threaten viral replicaton and transmission, the virus will take on another coat so that it can no longer be easily recognized and, therefore, atacked by the host immune system. The virus is now able to escape immunity (so-called: ‘immune escape’). However, the virus can only rely on this strategy provided it stll has room enough to replicate. Viruses, in contrast to the majority of bacteria, must rely on living host cells to replicate. This is why the occurrence of ‘escape mutants’ isn’t too worrisome as long as the likelihood for these variants to rapidly fnd another host is quite remote. However, that’s not partcularly the case during a viral pandemic! During a pandemic, the virus is spreading all over the globe with many subjects shedding and transmitng the virus (even including asymptomatc ‘carriers’)." DJ Delta may be finding ways to evade immunity with billions of hosts...both human and non-human...(a.o. mink, deer, bats ? mice ?) With my very limited knowledge I find the explosion of variants in Delta very alarming ! Waning immunity, winter, comes on top of it all...NOT GOOD !!! STOP THE SPREAD !!!! |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Post Reply | |
Tweet
|
Forum Jump | Forum Permissions You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot create polls in this forum You can vote in polls in this forum |