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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Delta Virus

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    Posted: June 16 2021 at 4:15am

Have been looking at this new variant .  I think it is something to be worried about especially in the fall.   I guess we might have to put our october fest plans on hold this year. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 16 2021 at 4:48am

UK has deferred its end of lockdown plans because of Delta C19......

Hold on USA .....

Come fall your numbers are going to soar .....

Take care all 😷😉

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 16 2021 at 4:59am

If anyone thinks this is over they are delusional.....

Take care all 😷😉

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 16 2021 at 5:30am

Here in NL on the Delta variant-last week 205 youngsters-15-19 y/o after school exams went on holiday to Spain/Portugal and mixed with UK youths. Now proberbly all infected with the Delta variant. Symptoms more "cold like" but still twice as many people may get in hospital for the Delta variant then for the "old variant"...

On Dutch CDC numbers in east of NL this week proberbly 9% of new cases is Delta, last week was 5%...Dutch CDC is testing samples ad random and may be missing the spread in the young and unvaccinated. 

Communication that "symptoms are more like a severe cold" are misleading if twice as many people need hospital. You do not need hospital with a cold ! (Dutch link [url]https://www.gelderlander.nl/binnenland/indiase-variant-rukt-op-in-nederland-onderzoek-naar-jongeren-die-examenfeestjes-zijn-gaan-vieren~a508759f/[/url] or https://www.gelderlander.nl/binnenland/indiase-variant-rukt-op-in-nederland-onderzoek-naar-jongeren-die-examenfeestjes-zijn-gaan-vieren~a508759f/ )

[url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ also indicates increase of Delta/India variants...now-not in fall !


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 16 2021 at 6:57pm

Dutch, that is the reason why I am going to have to cancel our octoberfest  plans.   It is just too risky.' Having got it once, I don't want to ever go back to the ICU again.   I know it's pretty strange for many to feel this way,  I had a few months of hell to go thru in order to live and i would rather not do it again. 



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 16 2021 at 7:49pm

Delta variant  more like cold. Symptoms bad headache with fever and runny nose. So far not a big dealhttps://www.bbc.com/news/health-57467051


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 16 2021 at 9:15pm

Usk-You would not expect hospital cases going up if it was just "a bad cold"...and I did see a report on that from the UK ZOE-app/prof. Spencer...

On the long run covid19 will become the same risk as a (severe) cold (sometimes resulting in pneumonia). At this moment I am unclear on how bad symptoms can get-in other age groups then young. I am unclear on the numbers since "corona is out" also "testing is out"...

ME163 (after the German fighter ???) I can understand you want to be on the safe side...Here in NL a lot of people will not go abroad this summer-out of fear of getting stranded, catching the virus...(in that order iI guess...)

I (DJ) try to follow daily in scenarios how this pandemic is developing-general numbers down but several (far more) risky variants going up. Part of the problem is spread via young party-people going to Mallorca, "party islands"...mixing with young unvaccinated people from already many countries. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 17 2021 at 1:46am

DELTA VARIANT:

                          

How crematoriums were overwhelmed across India with bodies following a devastating second wave of Covid-19 infections.      
ReutersPublished 28 May, 2021 06:52pm 
       



Some cold!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 17 2021 at 4:31am

https://cnb.cx/3zcimDR


We do not know for sure this was delta. Testing was not conducted extensively during this crisis. The testing that has been done shows delta is NOT a variant that kills. It is very possible that this was mostly the first variant which we already knew was very deadly in certain populations without adequate health care and natural immunity. To me your reporting on cremations in April only makes me more suspicious that China is lying about their deaths. What was happening in India undoubtedly was happening in China a year before and China deaths should be in the 100’s of thousands range rather than 3590

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 17 2021 at 4:51am

Also read this about how started the crisis British variant first then mutation 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 17 2021 at 6:30am

That article was 6 weeks old, Usk.  The B.1.617 (Indian) variant was named the Delta variant by the WHO on the 21 May (less than 4 weeks ago).*


1% of tests being checked for a variant of concern is nowhere near optimal; it can't deliver enough tracing and quarantining to effectively aid the suppression of the virus.  But when the amount of tested people is large enough - as in India1, it is enough to show developing trends.  So: no, we do not have complete certainty that the Delta variant is the cause of India's woes, but we are 99.9% sure.  That is a pretty good score in science.  As an explanation for the huge death toll, it passed the hypothesis test and became an accepted theory.  




1  Although the percentage of the population tested is small, the population of India is so large even a tiny proportion gives a huge cohort to study.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 17 2021 at 7:08am

And I keep harping on it, but even when the initial symptoms are milder, people are still developing complications that are debilitating them for months, years, possibly ever.  It's a good reason for caution and measured steps in my book.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 17 2021 at 4:15pm

National Geographic: The Delta variant is serious. Here’s why it's on the rise..

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/the-delta-variant-is-serious-heres-why-its-on-the-rise

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 17 2021 at 4:44pm

Hindustan Times: ‘Cause for worry’: Expert weighs in on immune escape potential of Delta plus Covid variant.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/expert-weighs-in-on-immune-escape-potential-of-delta-plus-covid-variant-101623932075798-amp.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 18 2021 at 3:55am

Hey Carbon you have posted in several places about delta variant and I was wondering if you noticed a common theme?  Each country used the Chinese vaccine. Could there be a connection?Are we seeing genocide in action?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 18 2021 at 8:20am

I don't think TPTB in China seek genocide for the West, but damaging our socities just enough to make us more dependant would be right up their street.

Then perhaps we would be unable to complain when they exert ever more rigid controls on the Uyghur, the inhabitants of Hong Kong or take over Taiwan or South Korea.  Xi Jinping seems driven by power, conquest and money.



No vaccine is 100% safe or 100% effective.  I know what score ours achieve on both counts.   China seems less forthcoming with such data about their own.  It is possible I just missed it, but China does have form in such things.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 18 2021 at 4:05pm

Originally posted by Usk Usk wrote:

Hey Carbon you have posted in several places about delta variant and I was wondering if you noticed a common theme?  Each country used the Chinese vaccine. Could there be a connection?Are we seeing genocide in action?

I don't think sinovax is up to task,lady I know who's family live in Iran ,where it's available says her family in permanent  lockdown, because they don't trust that vaccine.......

It's either no good or it's not able to travel well,but if you look at the countries that have it ,I doubt if they know what they doing,or as I said in another post ,

Some governments will be using this to get rid of their opponents......

Take care all 😷😉

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 19 2021 at 10:08am

Fleeting exposure...


https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/19/new-south-wales-records-three-new-covid-cases-as-mandatory-masks-introduced


New South Wales reported three cases of Covid-19 on Saturday, taking the total associated with the Bondi outbreak to six.

Two previously unreported cases were announced, including a woman in her 40s from the eastern suburbs who visited a number of venues in Westfield Bondi Junction. The second case, reported overnight, is a man in his 30s who lives in Sydney and also visited Westfield Bondi Junction.


His case will be reported in tomorrow’s numbers.

These are in addition to the case reported on Friday afternoon of a man in his 50s who was on the same floor of the Westfield Bondi Junction Myer as the initial Bondi case last Saturday.

NSW health minister Brad Hazzard said the Delta variant which is behind this outbreak is a “near and present danger” given the fleeting contact between cases at the Bondi Junction Westfield.


https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/case-locations-and-alerts.aspx

The areas are expansive. This is proactivity at its finest. Letting delta wash over us here in the US is foolhardy.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 19 2021 at 1:56pm

The NSW government has a totally different outlook ,than our Premier here in Western Australia,

We have frequently been harassed,by the other states ,only to have been proved right ,in the way our government and especially our Premier (97%aprovall rating) has handled this situation.

Take care all 😷😉

PerthNow: WA reintroduces strict measures applied in December after NSW northern beaches outbreak.

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/wa-reintroduces-strict-measures-applied-in-december-after-nsw-northern-beaches-outbreak-c-3160446

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 20 2021 at 3:11am

Why has the Delta variant spread so quickly in UK?

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57489740

It looks like it will take over completely from other variants.

One reason was opening to international travel too soon:

Quote Experts believe a major factor is the number of cases that were introduced into the UK in a short space of time, because of the volume of travel. 

Public Health England figures show the variant was introduced at least 500 times by travellers.

Dr Jeffrey Barrett, from the Sanger Institute, which analyses the genetic material from Covid-test swabs to work out which mutations they contain, said he believed the true number was likely to be more than 1,000.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 20 2021 at 7:45am

And to piggyback off of what Pixie said, it is important to remember that in the US, Covid vaccine hesitancy/opposition reigns so supreme that, according to CBS Evening News last night, in some counties vaccination rates are at 20%. Many southern and midwestern counties are vaccinated to 40%.  How does a country responsibly reopen in this situation?

I know many folks are opposed to vaccine passports, but what  other ideas are there to open responsibly?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 20 2021 at 12:55pm

[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/after-covid-case-found-at-show-all-attendees-quarantined-even-the-vaccinated/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/after-covid-case-found-at-show-all-attendees-quarantined-even-the-vaccinated/

A senior health official told the Kan public broadcaster that the Pfizer vaccine was thought to be 88% effective against the Delta variant, compared to 96% effective against the British strain, but noted that some 35% of the population in Israel remains unvaccinated.


The Military Intelligence taskforce also said Israel’s coronavirus transmission rate had risen sharply to 1.5.

DJ-Several clusters in school children-R0 jumped to 1,5...in Israel-proberbly #1 in vaccinations....Not good !

[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/face-masks-are-back-in-schools-of-two-towns/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/face-masks-are-back-in-schools-of-two-towns/ ; Schools in Modi’in (between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv) and Binyamina on Mt Carmel last week saw dozens of new cases of coronavirus, mostly sourced to adults returning from overseas trips. Some had been vaccinated. The infection is identified as the “Indian variant.”  The Health ministry has ordered the return of face masks in all schools in the two towns, after exemptions for the rest of the country were issued last week, and advised everyone to avoiding non-essential foreign travel.

DJ-In general 65% vaccinated may mean some communities did see-very likely-much lees vaccinations-leaving room for (Delta) variant spread...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 20 2021 at 3:13pm

Originally posted by ViQueen24 ViQueen24 wrote:

And to piggyback off of what Pixie said, it is important to remember that in the US, Covid vaccine hesitancy/opposition reigns so supreme that, according to CBS Evening News last night, in some counties vaccination rates are at 20%. Many southern and midwestern counties are vaccinated to 40%.  How does a country responsibly reopen in this situation?

I know many folks are opposed to vaccine passports, but what  other ideas are there to open responsibly?

The problem is that the vaccines don't guarantee immunity. I have a friend who not only had Covid very badly, but then he had both shots of the vaccine and then a couple of months later he had a test to monitor his antibody level at the request of his doctor. He has been devastated to discover that he has no antibodies to Covid at all, none. He's as vulnerable as he ever was and he has to travel globally because of his job. 

Even if someone has had the vaccines, they can still have and spread Covid. The vaccines will just make it more likely that they will be asymptomatic. Obviously the vaccines will save lives by making it less likely for someone to die from it but let's be clear here, having the vaccine is benefitting the person receiving the jab more than it's benefitting the rest of society. It offers no guarantee. About one third of all current admissions and deaths in hospital in the UK at the moment are in people who've had 2 shots of a vaccine. 

Here in NZ we're being told these facts, it's not being hidden from us. And when the borders open, Covid will come flooding in even if we restrict entry to people who've been fully vaccinated. And Kiwis will die as a result. At the moment we don't have any community transmission and are living life as normal, but we've all been told that will change when the borders open. We'll have to introduce social distancing and prepare for it to disrupt our lives. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 21 2021 at 3:56am

That is absolutely true.  Mind you, almost all over 18s are now vaccinated, so there are only a handful of people left unvaccinated in any of the vulnerable groups. 

Overall, hospital admissions and deaths are a tiny fraction of what they were before the vaccine was available, despite the Delta variant.  So the vaccine protects almost everyone. (It varies from vaccine to vaccine, about 90% successful is the average and that figure is for disease free protection.)   There is literally no one left unvaccinated to get sick enough for hospital - except  the tiny "0.something %" for whom the vaccine is pointless (immune suppressed, HIV, transplantees etc.. Although these people are getting shots anyway; some protection is better than nothing.)

What it does not do is prevent infection, it only prevents disease in the 90% and severe disease in most of the rest.  About 40% of the fully vaccinated can still get and carry asymptomatic infections.  So it slows the spread, but does not prevent it.

There is talk of a booster shot in the autumn.  This might raise the  90% success rate.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 21 2021 at 7:09am

What you say is true, KiwiMum, but while these vaccines don't completely eliminate infection or transmission, they reduce them significantly.  They also cut way down on severe illness and hospitalizations.  We are being told this in the States regularly by our media.  It is not the media's fault that citizens practice selective hearing, magical thinking, and overuse of selected personal filters.  Or that they at times act like children in other ways.

Viruses play the long game, and we need to, also.  We need to use all the tools currently in our tool chest, and we need to develop new tools and use those wise!y also.  One cannot be a one-trick pony, relying too much on one tool.

If I were a gambler, I'd like these odds alot better than the ones I had a year ago or even 6 weeks ago.  But when I go out, I still wear a mask and gloves.  ViQueen's mother didn't raise a fool.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 21 2021 at 9:01am

Absolutely!  Our death rate has fallen from over 1000 per day to single figures thanks mostly to the vaccine programme.  About 1 third of those are double vaccinated, but as almost everyone is now vaccinated, that is 2 or 3** persons out of 53* million  (Literally less than one in 10 million).  That figure could well be explained by those poor few people who (like KiwiMom's friend) are statistical anomalies or, more often, the severely immunocompromised.


90% effective, simply means 90% of people do not develop active (symptomatic) disease.  -  Some of them may still transmit the virus.  

Of the remaining 10%,  (The ones classed as vaccine failures!)  astonishingly few are being hospitalised and even fewer of them are dying. 

Of course, even one death is one to many, but the vaccines do seem to be showing a light at the end of the tunnel.   



*  Office of national statistics

** one third of daily deaths = those occuring in vaccinated people.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 21 2021 at 9:15am

All of which does not take away from KiwiMom's other lament.  New Zealand has had an enviable lack of covid so far.  I imagine that, when the borders open again, the horrors the rest of us have had to endure will be a very unwelcome shock.


I sympathise!  It would have been so great had more leaders behaved like Jacinda Ardern - and more "general public"s had behaved more like Kiwis.  I am genuinely sorry our bad choices will soon affect you too.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 21 2021 at 2:47pm

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

All of which does not take away from KiwiMom's other lament.  New Zealand has had an enviable lack of covid so far.  I imagine that, when the borders open again, the horrors the rest of us have had to endure will be a very unwelcome shock.


I sympathise!  It would have been so great had more leaders behaved like Jacinda Ardern - and more "general public"s had behaved more like Kiwis.  I am genuinely sorry our bad choices will soon affect you too.

Honestly I'd be happy to keep our borders shut for the next 3 or 4 years. I was due to be in Europe next month but obviously won't be going. I could go but then I'd have enforced quarantine in an isolation facility for 2 weeks upon my return, and there's nothing in Europe that can't wait a few years. The weird thing here is that life is totally normal. I saw two friends in the supermarket yesterday and I hugged and kissed both of them, just like every one else does. And then I talk to friends in the UK who haven't hugged anyone in 16 months and it seems so alien, so remote. If only Jacinda had been ruling the world last year...............

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 21 2021 at 5:01pm

Trust me:   it's ghastly!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 22 2021 at 7:42am

Yes, I do agree. I can see why KiwiMum feels the way she does, and if I were a New Zealander, I would share her trepidation.  What New Zealand has done during this pandemic is very admirable.  Jacinda has guts, brains and a heart and is awesome.  And sadly, outside of this site, I rarely hear anything about her or New Zealand and how they've handled Covid, which to me is incomprehensible.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 22 2021 at 12:39pm

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/06/22/fourth-wave-feared-rivm-finds-several-delta-coronavirus-variant-clusters-netherlands[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/06/22/fourth-wave-feared-rivm-finds-several-delta-coronavirus-variant-clusters-netherlands ;

Just days before the Netherlands is set to relax coronavirus restrictions in the Netherlands, the country's top public health organization is sounding the alarm bell over the delta coronavirus variant. New research from England determined the variant is about 64 percent more contagious than the alpha variant common to the Netherlands.

The delta variant is believed to be currently responsible for about 9 percent of coronavirus infections in the Netherlands. The RIVM said the variant will become the main coronavirus strain in the country this summer. The RIVM said this could lead to a fourth wave of infections later this year, similar to after the summer of 2020.


"This happened because travelers became infected at their holiday destination and brought the virus back to the Netherlands. This, combined with more social contacts, resulted in a further spread of the new variants in the Netherlands," the RIVM said.

Over the past two weeks, 624 people who tested positive for coronavirus had recently traveled to Spain or Portugal. Many of them were high school students celebrating the completion of their final exams. Genome sequencing of the coronavirus which infected the young people "revealed that a large part of these infections was caused by the delta variant."


The RIVM is mainly concerned about the autumn, with the general seasonal increase of infections expected. "The more contagious delta variant could then lead to a new wave of infections, since not everyone in the Netherlands has yet been fully or partially vaccinated." In fact, the latest data from the agency showed that about 34 percent of the adult population was fully vaccinated against Covid-19 through Sunday.

"An increase in infections can lead to an increase in hospital and ICU admissions. Whether the delta variant is not only more contagious, but also more pathogenic is being investigated further," the RIVM said. Such an increase in hospitalizations is not expected in the short term.

"Coronavirus is not gone. We have to stay alert, especially on vacation," De Jonge said. He and Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced on Friday that the Cabinet would release most lockdown restrictions from June 26.

Noted virologist Marion Koopmans told Rijnmond that the Delta variant will become the dominant strain in July.

DJ-You see a storm coming but it is dry now still-so the kids can go out to play...

There are several reasons the Dutch CDC/RIVM thinks there is room for openings;

-In total cases are going up-some variants Delta (but also Gamma/P1-Brazil) go up...but if you would have 200 cases per day now-5% variants=10 variant cases per day...the idea seems to be cases mid july could be as low as (for example) 50-with 50% variant cases-so 25 variant cases per day...

-Since also vaccinations would go up-from 35% now to maybe 60% fully vaccinated then most of those variant cases-in this idea-would hardly show symptoms...

-Also "summer will save us" -only this summer is quite bizarre-yesterday lots of rain temperature under 20C-after for the east of NL an also bizarre June heatwave...

DJ-Let me be clear-as a non-expert...this policy is close to insane...We do not know enough of the Delta+ variant, P1 also going up...opening up for tourism...The Dutch CDC scenario is expecting everything will go to their ideas..but so far this pandemic keeps surprising most experts...

When you look at corona virusses in animals it is almost impossible to contain...So why keep repeating these risk-when you know there will be another surge...that one could and should stop ?  

I don't understand this insanity...not only in NL...any longer...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 23 2021 at 12:02am

DJ

Israel [url]https://www.debka.com/children-dominate-125-new-covid-cases-highest-fig-since-april/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/children-dominate-125-new-covid-cases-highest-fig-since-april/

The symptoms of the Delta strain observed so far vary from the known norm:  They are typically headache, sore threat and a bad head cold with running nose, with occasional loss of taste and smell or a dry cough. A cold was formerly ruled out as a simptom of coronavirus. The Indian variant has changed that.

“No reason to panic,” over the new variant, said Prof. Ran Balicer, an epidemiologist who advises the Health Ministry. He was reacting to the discovery of 37 positive cases reported in Modi’in, – 27 of them schoolchildren, and more than 80 in Binyamina, after an outbreak in one school. “The barrier of vaccination we have built may be sufficient to contain these outbreaks and prevent a wide community spread,” he said. Health officials slay there ae no plans to revive the lockdowns and stiff measures finally lifted two months ago when Israel was declared covid-free.

Researchers have traced the variant’s source to large numbers of illegal foreign workers entering the UAE from India, which is why Israel’s Health ministry last week added the Emirates to the list of countries barred against Israeli travel.

A double Pfizer shot is initially reckoned by some experts as 88pc protection against severe coronavirus symptoms from the Indian variant,” marginally less than effectiveness of the mass vaccinations conducted in Israel and many other countries in the past seven months.

This reduced effectiveness may be accounted for by two hypothetical factors:

  1. The Pfizer vaccine is more effective against serious illness than the lighter Delta variant.
  2. Not ruling out 1, the effectiveness of the shots may weaken over time. The first large-scale vaccinations were carried out in Israel starting last December. This is therefore the right place for a pilot research project for establishing how long the Pfizer vaccine is active and at what stage a third booster shot is required. Israel is well placed to cooperate with Pfizer for establishing this vital information for the future.
    Sharon Shamis, Director of Clinical Trials, MSc at Hebrew University’s Medical Sciences, contributed to this article.

DJ-A remark on 88% protection by pfizer vaccines-those numbers are from the early stages of UK dealing with the Delta variant. Both the number of infections and a Delta+ variant may see lower rate of protection. 

I would also like to be able to look at Iran sources but [url]https://www.presstv.com/[/url] or https://www.presstv.com/ ; [url]https://twitter.com/presstv[/url] ;In what seems to be a coordinated action, a similar message appears on the websites of Iranian and regional television networks that claims the domains of the websites have been “seized by the United States Government.”

DJ The US should stop this criminal action agaist a press outlet of another state. Very likely Delta variant may be increasing in Iran-with maybe some local variants ? 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 23 2021 at 10:19am

DJ-NL;

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/06/23/delta-variant-responsible-40-new-coronavirus-infections-amsterdam[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/06/23/delta-variant-responsible-40-new-coronavirus-infections-amsterdam ;

More than 40% of all new SARS-CoV-2 infections in Amsterdam can be linked to the delta variant of the coronavirus, said Yvonne van Duijnhoven, the head of infectious diseases at the Amsterdam GGD. Van Duijnhoven warned that the delta variant could become dominant in the Dutch capital by next week, she told newswire ANP on Tuesday.

Van Duijnhoven said her estimate was based on provisional results of samples collected and tested during the past seven days. When examining the samples taken the previous week, the delta variant was only found in seven percent of the cases. Just under 800 people tested positive for any SARS-CoV-2 variant in Amsterdam during that two-week period, according to RIVM data.


The research proved that the delta variant was commonly found in young people who recently returned from holiday in Spain or PortugalA separate analysis of their samples proved that 90 percent of the infected young people who returned from the Spanish island of Mallorca took the Delta variant with them. That was also true for 50% of travelers returning from the Portuguese resort town of Albufeira.

According to Van Duijnhoven, it is difficult to say whether it is solely these people causing the dramatic increase in the presence of the delta strain. “This variant has been circulating in the Netherlands for weeks," she said.


Nationally, over 500 people who returned from a visit to either country in June tested positive for the coronavirus infection, regardless of variant, the RIVM said.

Last week, the variant of the virus still accounted for only ten percent of new infections in major Dutch cities according to Health Minister Hugo de Jonge. The RIVM said it expected delta to replace the alpha variant to become the main strain of the virus in the Netherlands over the course of the summer. Virologist Marion Koopmans was more specific, and predicted this would happen in July.

The total number of coronavirus infections in Amsterdam has continued to fall, though generally at a slower rate than previously anticipated. The number of infections among young people aged 13 to 18 appears to be even increasing, according to Van Duijnhoven. She noted that there was still no reason to sound an alarm.

“The absolute numbers of infections continue to fall. And we are in full vaccination mode. Moreover, it is summer, which means that the virus is less easily spread,” she said.

The RIVM said that the dominance of the delta variant was unlikely to cause an increase in the number of hospital admissions in the short term, but if total coronavirus infections increase that will likely lead to an overall increase in hospitalizations.

DJ [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/06/23/delta-variant-increasingly-common-rotterdam-dutch-virologist-says[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/06/23/delta-variant-increasingly-common-rotterdam-dutch-virologist-says 

[url]https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-delta-variant-could-make-up-90-of-europes-infections/a-58009693[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-delta-variant-could-make-up-90-of-europes-infections/a-58009693 ;

The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) on Wednesday said it expected the coronavirus delta variant, which was first found in India to be the dominant cause of infection in Europe throughout the summer. "It is very likely that the delta variant will circulate heavily this summer," said ECDC Director Andrea Ammon. 

Ammon warned that current data suggests individuals who have only received one vaccination shot are still susceptible to delta variant infection, though said a second shot offered a high level of protection. In light of that fact, she urged people to get their second shot as soon as allowed.  

The ECDC found that the delta variant is 40%-60% more transmissible than the alpha variant, which was first seen in the United Kingdom, and expects it to continue its voracious spread, accounting for as much as 70% of all European infections by early August. 

"The delta variant is more transmissible than other circulating variants and we estimate that by the end of August it will represent 90%" of new cases in the EU, according to the agency.

Europe

The number of cases in Germany increased by 1,016, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) announced on Wednesday.

The reported death toll went up by 51, RKI data showed. The seven-day incidence rate fell further, to 7.2 cases per 100,000 people.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Wednesday voiced a desire for European Union-wide quarantine rules for people arriving from areas where the delta variant has been identified as prevalent. "In our country, if you come from Britain, you have to go into quarantine — that's not the case in every European country, and that's what I would like to see," she told parliament.

Swiss Health Minister Alain Berset announced Wednesday that his country would lift coronavirus restrictions sooner than expected as infections continue to fall. As of Saturday, masks will no longer be required outdoors; restaurants, bars and discos will be allowed to open at full capacity; and large-scale events of up to 10,000 people can be attended by those with proof of vaccination. "It's a big step, a little bit courageous, and we can't get overconfident," Berset said, "We're seeking to strike the right balance."

Asia

Tokyo 2020 organizers have said alcohol at Olympic venues will be banned as part of efforts to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, the Kyodo news agency reported.

The Games are set to commence on July 23 and last for two weeks.

In China, direct flights from Shenzhen to Beijing have been suspended until at least July 1.

China's most populous province Guangdong is battling a recent outbreak, with 170 confirmed local cases between May 21 and June 21, though no new confirmed local cases were reported for June 22 on Wednesday.

Oceania

The Red Cross has called for faster vaccination rollouts in vulnerable Pacific island nations as a surge in cases threatens to overwhelm Fiji's health system.

Fiji's two largest hospitals have been converted into dedicated COVID-19 facilities, with the number of infections doubling every nine days since a second wave began in April. 

The situation has been a "serious wake-up call" showing the need for more urgency across the region, Red Cross Pacific chief Katie Greenwood said.

DJ-In Europe the Delta variant will be (over) 90% of cases by the end of August-I do not think US/Canada will do much better...how the Delta variant will deal with variants in Africa and Latin America we soon will find out...could be even getting worse...

Increasing vaccinations has limited use-since it may take two weeks before getting full immunity-after the second vaccination. The Delta variant is spreading most in younger-unvaccinated-age groups. Will increase its spread in those with just one vaccination (Pfizer, Moderna/AZ-O)...may develop further towards vaccine escape...

The UK now reporting over 16,000 cases-may be moving towards the expected 20,000+ new cases per day. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 23 2021 at 11:00am

Scotland just reported its biggest ever daily count of new cases, over a thousand, despite the extensive vaccine programme.  We had 9 deaths today too.

This is obviously a SERIOUS uptick.  The Delta variant is sickening younger people too.  I would not be surprised if we locked down again. 


Either way we will be behaving like hermits as usual.




Apparently that light at the end of the tunnel we saw was an oncoming train.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 23 2021 at 3:48pm

Wow that is an uptick. I'm glad you are able to self isolate. I certainly have elderly relatives in the UK who are not taking it seriously and are glad to be out and about again because now that they are double jabbed they feel invincible.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 23 2021 at 10:11pm

Last night's tv news had a report on football fans returning from Russia and the testing that they are undergoing.  One point they mentioned is that in Russia the delta variant accounts for 90% of the cases, whereas here in Finland it is at about 1/3rd of the cases.

Russia has been reporting an increase in cases and deaths due to covid19.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 24 2021 at 2:14am

From under Dr. John Campbell june 23 video; Nadhim Zahawi Vaccine Deployment minister If 85% of all adults are double vaccinated, and the vaccines are 85% effective, then the protection level is 72% (28% of the population at some risk) 

DJ Dr.J.C. had some problems with the calculations behind it-while it is simple...100 people 85 fully vaccinated=85% protection in those vaccinated-85% of 85=(8,5+4,25=12,75, 85-12,75=72,25=)72%...

Translating that calculation to more realistic numbers; 70% vaccinated-80% protection would result in (70-14=) 56% protection...44% of population at risk...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#History[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#History

In June 2021, scientist Vinod Scaria of India's Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology highlighted the existence of the B.1.617.2.1 variant, also known as AY.1 or Delta plus, which has an additional K417N mutation compared to the Delta variant.[27] B.1.617.2.1 was detected in Europe in March 2021, and has since been detected in Asia and America.[27]


DJ [url]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57577138[/url] or https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57577138 ; The Indian government has announced that a new variant, named Delta plus, is a "variant of concern". But there is not enough data at the moment to say that it could cause a third wave. However experts say the scenario "could change within weeks".

So the main mutation in the Delta-plus is K417N, (as in Beta, SA)  not new. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Beta_variant#Mutations[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Beta_variant#Mutations 

[url]https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/what-is-delta-variant-coronavirus-with-k417n-mutation-2021-06-23/[/url] or https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/what-is-delta-variant-coronavirus-with-k417n-mutation-2021-06-23/ ;Shahid Jameel, a top Indian virologist, said the K417N was known to reduce the effectiveness of a cocktail of therapeutic monoclonal antibodies.

DJ-So maybe time for a new "model"-70 % vaccinated-60% protection would translate to (70-40%=28=)42% protection-leaving 58% of society vulnarable...with 60% vaccinated-60% protection even resuling in (60-24=)36% protection...

Since sequencing is "poor" in most countries we simply have no idea how far both the Delta-and Delta-plus (or other variants-some also more vaccine/natural immunity escape) variants are. We do know the level of vaccine protection in even the best countries-vaccination wise-may be something like 70% (Israel ?)...Most other countries hardly manage to see 50% of ALL of their population (including under 18 y/o-main driver in a.o. Israel ) fully vaccinated...

Okay-50%-getting 60% protection against newest variants like Delta-plus=30% protection...how fast will newer variants spread ? Based on these numbers -very fast !

Even worse-mutations in variants during spread will further decrease protection from vaccines or earlier infection...

Stop The Spread !!!!!!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 24 2021 at 2:28am

DJ- Some more on the Delta-plus variant (with K417N-mutation);

[url]https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-comment-on-the-delta-plus-variant-b-1-617-2-with-the-addition-of-k417n-mutation/?cli_action=1624526401.25[/url] or https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-comment-on-the-delta-plus-variant-b-1-617-2-with-the-addition-of-k417n-mutation/?cli_action=1624526401.25

What do we know about this variant and it’s transmissibility/ vaccine evasion/ lethality?

“Given the tiny number of strains reported, nothing is known about the transmissibility, immune evasion or lethality of the delta+ strain. Though, given that it has remained at very low frequency everywhere where it has been identified strongly suggest it is not more transmissible than its delta progenitor.

The K417N mutation

“The K417N mutation has arisen independently in several viral lineages (at least twice in delta). It was observed on the 27 March 2020 in a strain found in Qatar. K417N is generally present in the beta variant (1.351). The mutation may contribute to immune escape, though its impact on transmissibility is not clear-cut. None of the lineages carrying it (with the exception of beta) have been particularly successful so far.

Parallel with alpha

“There were earlier similar concerns when the alpha variant (B.1.1.7) acquired the E484K immune escape mutation. This happened several times independently but none of those alpha lineages carrying E484K were particularly successful in the end.”

 

DJ-Based on this info risk of Delta-plus variant may be very limited however it is the total of mutations that matter-and how they mix with what hosts. In India there should (still) be (some) immunity against the (old) Delta variant-in other countries the Delta-plus variant may have more room. 

[url]https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-cases-of-the-b-1-617-2-delta-variant-with-the-k417n-mutation/[/url] or https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-cases-of-the-b-1-617-2-delta-variant-with-the-k417n-mutation/ ;

Dr Jeff Barrett, Director of the COVID-19 Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, said:

“There have been 91 sequences observed in the GISAID database of B.1.617.2 / Delta with an additional mutation: K417N. This mutation is present in B.1.351 / Beta, and is believed to be part of why that variant is less well neutralised by vaccines. Because of this possibility, and because Delta appears more transmissible than Beta, scientists are monitoring it carefully.

“This Delta+K417N has been seen in numerous countries, including the UK, Portugal, the USA, and India. It has also been observed once in Nepal (which does very little sequencing), and 14 times in Japan, of which 13 are samples from airport quarantine from travellers from Nepal.”

DJ-translation "we do not know enough yet"...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 24 2021 at 4:31am

To be honest, KiwiMum, those who have had two jabs are (assuming the jabs were more than 2 weeks ago and they have no immunocompromised status) safe.  At least as safe as they can be.  In their shoes (as I am) I still take no chances, but I am quite paranoid!

The risks remaining are minescule (about one in a million, crossing the road is considerably less safe).   The risks are larger than being struck by a meteorite and killed, or struck by lightning, but not by much.

We still have large cohorts of unvaccinated though -  and the young seem to think themselves invincible.  They aren't and the Delta variant seems to put them at more risk.  I don't give it long before we have yet another variant of concern.



In your enviable shoes, I would encourage them to take more precautions, but not actually go on to worry much.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 24 2021 at 11:37pm

Oh I'm keeping well out of it. They are old enough and ugly enough to make their own decisions, and I'm not going to start telling people what to do. But I do know that if one of them comes down with it they'll be completely at a loss as to how that's even possible. They seem to know very little about the vaccines. They just lined up like good little citizens and rolled up their sleeves.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2021 at 1:35am

Some statistics on the fourth wave in the UK [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ and Israel [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/ both vaccinated very well-though far from herd immunity. 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ Global decrease dropped to -0,1% (!!!!!) due to the Delta variants...In the weekly highest % increase list Israel at #5-with an increase of 484%-117 cases last week, this week 683...The UK at #39-with an increase of 45%-last week 58,830 cases-this week 85,176...

DJ-Vaccinations may help to limit the damage (in my view) may buy time. But a major problem is new variants are developing towards resistent forms able to infect hosts over and over again...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/917980-n-engl-j-med-sars-cov-2-variants-and-vaccines[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/917980-n-engl-j-med-sars-cov-2-variants-and-vaccines ;Viral variants of concern may emerge with dangerous resistance to the immunity generated by the current vaccines to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Moreover, if some variants of concern have increased transmissibility or virulence, the importance of efficient public health measures and vaccination programs will increase. The global response must be both timely and science based.

DJ-In Russia, Portugal most likely Sweden-soon US-the Delta variant could (also) get out of control. Limited vaccinations, political stupidity in going for Non Pharma Interventions (mixed with communications that make matters worse) are pushing in the wrong direction. 

Of course a "wave has an end" but if we keep reopening for another variant to spread-another wave-we may go "all the way" into the self made swamp. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant is trying to stay on top of info...but limited sequencing, testing is leaving us 99% blind. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2021 at 11:36pm

Dr.John Campbell misusing "pseudo science" in his story on "Delta goes to Europe" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JETqBIl4mOo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JETqBIl4mOo Dr.J.C. has a religious belief in vaccines...Even if he knows better...Vaccine effectivity is based on statistics. So-yes at the start of the spread of the Delta variant-in yet another wave in this pandemic-numbers look great..."over 90% protection when fully vaccinated"...So corrupt failing politicians can "reopen again""saving the economy again"etc...

Repeating wrong choices will not make those choices right ! Vaccine protection is eroding. Variants are mutating towards resistent forms of Covid19-able to infect hosts (human and non human) over and over again...It would be very welcome if Dr.J.C. was talking on that...He is doing a good job on Ivermectin, vitamins...but seems to be blind for the Big Pharma maffia making zillions on profit on vaccines that do not offer a long term solution...

More and more this pandemic-like climate "change"=collapse-shows the basic problem is a political one...Politicians for sale-not working in the public interest...

[url]https://www.rt.com/russia/527626-covid-delta-emerge-investigate/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/russia/527626-covid-delta-emerge-investigate/ ;

Russia has detected its first case of the new ‘Delta Plus’ Covid-19 strain, a virus expert revealed on Friday. Officials believe it is isolated and was likely imported from another country. The variant was first found in India.

The news of Russia’s first recorded incident was revealed by Darya Danilenko, the deputy director of the Smorodintsev Research Institute of Influenza, who told Saint Petersburg newspaper Fontanka that there is no reason to believe Delta Plus is more dangerous or lethal than other known strains.

“The case is unique and most likely imported,” Danilenko explained, noting that other cases have been recorded in the US and the UK. Worldwide, around 200 infections have been found in 11 countries.

However, according to health watchdog Rospotrebnadzor, the Delta Plus case has not been scientifically confirmed.

On Wednesday, Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova told the government that Delta Plus was yet to be detected in Russia.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant Both embedded "media" and "experts" downplay the Delta+ variant "now spreading in India"...with the K417N mutation a.o. The "experts" claim if the Delta+ variant was more infectious they would detect it more often-while sequencing remains a problem and India is reporting the Delta+ variant spreading AFTER the Delta variant...

So immunity against the Delta-variant "B1.617.2" seems not to be stopping the + variant B1.617.2.1....[url]https://www.livemint.com/news/india/delta-plus-variant-of-covid-19-now-found-in-11-states-says-govt-full-list-11624620931089.html[/url] or https://www.livemint.com/news/india/delta-plus-variant-of-covid-19-now-found-in-11-states-says-govt-full-list-11624620931089.html Sequencing is almost not done in India-they send samples to the UK-so results take even longer...

It is very likely both the Delta and the Delta+ variant now are spreading. Since the K417N mutation may be more infectious again "experts" may be shown wrong...Social distancing and vaccination is better protection then just only vaccination...allthough "vaccine-religion" is in fashion now...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2021 at 1:43am

I have seen an explosion  of  Delta virus in Kansas.  We have seen a rapid rise in cases.  Our Vaccination rate is lower and more young people are reporting symptoms.   I saw a report of a Delta Plus variant.   It's supposed to get around the vaccine.   Is this true ? 

ME163 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2021 at 2:39am

That rather depends on what you class as "effective".  

According to the Lancet, the AstraZeneca vaccine is 60% effective and the PfizerBiontec 79% - against the Delta+ variant.  (That of course means fully effective, ie. preventing active disease.)   I do not know how much it limits transmission (probably much less) or severe disease (probably much more) and I don't have figures for any of the other vaccines. 

What is also worrying, is that the Delta + variant may make monoclonal antibody treatment ineffective and may also spread throughout the body more effectively - making it more virulent as well as more transmissable. 

So while the vaccine still offers a worthwhile degree of protection, overall the virus seems to be outpacing us in the war.  Worse, global political leaders are well behind the curve of events and continue to open up countries, giving the virus more opportunities to mutate into even worse strains.

I simply can't be the bearer of any good news or reassurance today.  Sorry!




Source:   Times of India - with video



How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2021 at 2:43am






I'm thinking after my second Az shot,I might go for one of the mRNA vaccines .....a few months later.....

What you guys think of that??? 

Take care all 😷😉

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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