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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Delta Virus

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ViQueen24 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2021 at 6:20am

We're probably all going to have to have booster shots later, so I would ask your doctor what they think.

I am the DZ Queen, and I approve this message.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 27 2021 at 1:44pm

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latest activity; 

WHO urges fully vaccinated people to continue to wear masks as delta Covid variant spreads

PUBLISHED FRI, JUN 25 20212:02 PM EDTUPDATED FRI, JUN 25 20214:34 PM EDT
...
The World Health Organization on Friday urged fully vaccinated people to continue to wear masks, social distance and practice other Covid-19 pandemic safety measures as the highly contagious delta variant spreads rapidly across the globe.

“People cannot feel safe just because they had the two doses. They still need to protect themselves,” Dr. Mariangela Simao, WHO assistant director-general for access to medicines and health products, said during a news briefing from the agency’s Geneva headquarters.

“Vaccine alone won’t stop community transmission,” Simao added. “People need to continue to use masks consistently, be in ventilated spaces, hand hygiene ... the physical distance, avoid crowding. This still continues to be extremely important, even if you’re vaccinated when you have a community transmission ongoing.”
...
The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that about half of adults infected in an outbreak of the delta variant in Israel were fully vaccinated with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, prompting the government there to reimpose an indoor mask requirement and other measures.
...
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/25/delt...t-spreads.html
See also:

UK: more than 50% of deaths from Delta variant are in the vaccinated

DJ Vaccines, masks, social distancing, handhygiene, ventilation, taking enough sleep/vitamins etc...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2021 at 2:40am

DJ

With much of Australia now moving into restrictions/lockdowns [url]https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-28/covid-restrictions-delta-variant-australia-sydney-bondi-cluster/100248754[/url] or https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-28/covid-restrictions-delta-variant-australia-sydney-bondi-cluster/100248754 due to the Delta variant I have another-growing worry...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mouse_plagues_in_Australia[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mouse_plagues_in_Australia ;A mouse plague affecting parts of Queensland and New South Wales began in mid-2020 and continued into 2021.[46] In January 2021, the mice continued to cause problems, and raised concerns for crops in areas of New South Wales and Queensland.[47] In March 2021, mice were stripping food and other items from the shelves of a supermarket in Gulargambone (382 km (237 mi) north west of Sydney).[48] Health concerns for people were raised when mice killed by baits were found in drinking water tanks.[49] Trundle and Tottenham have also been affected.[50] In May 2021, the Central West town of Canowindra and residents were featured in a CNN report on the phenomena.[51] In the meantime, mice were chewing through walls and ceilings, and were estimated to have caused $100 million in damage to crops and grain stores. Homeowners setting traps were reporting catching 500 to 600 mice per night.[52] The plague caused the complete evacuation (420 inmates and 200 staff) of the Wellington Correctional Centre in June 2021 as dead mice and damage to infrastructure led to concerns for health and safety of inmates and staff

DJ-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant has "limited info" ...a "worst case scenario" could see Covid19 spreading in mice...

As others in this site correctly posted-a pandemic-virus should not kill its host if the virus wants to survive. There are much more mice and rats then humans...variants spreading via mice would make this pandemic "far more dangerous"...it could-in a very worst case-"end humans"...

[url]https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7471983/[/url] or https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7471983/ ;

Since mouse hepatitis virus (MHV), severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), and SARS-CoV-2 share a common genus, lessons learnt from MHV and SARS-CoV could offer mechanistic insights into SARS-CoV-2. This review provides a comprehensive review of MHV in mice and SARS-CoV-2 in humans, thereby highlighting further translational avenues in the development of innovative strategies in controlling the detrimental course of SARS-CoV-2. Specifically, we have focused on various aspects, including host species, organotropism, transmission, clinical disease, pathogenesis, control and therapy, MHV as a model for SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 as well as mouse models for infection with SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2. While MHV in mice and SARS-CoV-2 in humans share various similarities, there are also differences that need to be addressed when studying murine models. Translational approaches, such as humanized mouse models are pivotal in studying the clinical course and pathology observed in COVID-19 patients. Lessons from prior murine studies on coronavirus, coupled with novel murine models could offer new promising avenues for treatment of COVID-19.

DJ-"One Health" as an idea wants to lift seperating human health from health in other species-it is seen as interlinked. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/918030-in-silico-comparison-of-sars-cov-2-spike-protein-ace2-binding-affinities-across-species-and-implications-for-virus-origin[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/918030-in-silico-comparison-of-sars-cov-2-spike-protein-ace2-binding-affinities-across-species-and-implications-for-virus-origin ;

Our model showed hamster ACE2 had high S protein binding, similar to the binding affinity to monkey ACE2. This could be explained by hamster ACE2 sharing 14 out of 16 of the S protein binding residues seen in hACE2. Hence our model predicts hamsters should be permissive to SARS-CoV-2 infection (Table 2). In support of these findings, Syrian hamsters have been shown to exhibit clinical and histopathological responses to SARS-CoV-2 that closely mimic human respiratory tract infections, with high virus shedding and ability to transmit the virus to naïve contact animals27. The high susceptibility of hamsters to SARS-CoV-2 infection has made them one of the most utilised small animal models. Our model also predicted that ferret ACE2 has a similar binding strength to the S protein as hamster ACE2 (Table 2). Again, ferrets have been found permissive to SARS-CoV-2 infection, with high virus titre in the upper respiratory tract, virus shedding, acute bronchiolitis and active virus transmission to naïve ferrets through direct contact29,30.

At the other extreme, based on the model predicting low S protein binding affinity for murine ACE2, mice should be resistant to infection. Supporting this finding, SARS-CoV-2 has been shown to have inefficient replication in mice44. Mice, however, become permissive for SARS or SARS-CoV-2 infection when made transgenic for human ACE245.

DJ-It looks like hamsters may be-so far-more of a problem then mice-in this study...But variants may mutate to being spread by mice-without symptoms in mice...

For the plague-pandemics in the past-so not yet for Covid 19; [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_(disease)#Cause[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_(disease)#Cause ;

Transmission of Y. pestis to an uninfected individual is possible by any of the following means:[16]

  • droplet contact – coughing or sneezing on another person
  • direct physical contact – touching an infected person, including sexual contact
  • indirect contact – usually by touching soil contamination or a contaminated surface
  • airborne transmission – if the microorganism can remain in the air for long periods
  • fecal-oral transmission – usually from contaminated food or water sources
  • vector borne transmission – carried by insects or other animals.

Yersinia pestis circulates in animal reservoirs, particularly in rodents, in the natural foci of infection found on all continents except Australia.

DJ-If non-human host catch the main spread of Covid 19 we are in a totally different pandemic...but notice the similarities in spread...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2021 at 3:47am

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/general-science-information/vaccines-information/vaccine-news/918212-booster-may-be-needed-for-those-with-johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-shot-as-delta-variant-spreads[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/general-science-information/vaccines-information/vaccine-news/918212-booster-may-be-needed-for-those-with-johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-shot-as-delta-variant-spreads ;

26 Jun 2021 08:35AM (Updated: 26 Jun 2021 08:40AM)
NEW YORK: Infectious disease experts are weighing the need for booster shots of the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna mRNA-based vaccines for Americans who received Johnson & Johnson's one-dose vaccine due to the increasing prevalence of the more contagious Delta coronavirus variant.

A few say they have already done so themselves, even without published data on whether combining two different vaccines is safe and effective or backing from US health regulators. Canada and some European countries are already allowing people to get two different COVID-19 shots.

The debate centres on concerns over how protective the J&J shot is against the Delta variant first detected in India and now circulating widely in many countries.
...
Andy Slavitt, former senior pandemic advisor to US President Joe Biden, raised the idea this week on his podcast. At least half a dozen prominent infectious disease experts said US regulators need to address the issue in short order.

"There's no doubt that the people who receive the J&J vaccine are less protected against disease," than those who get two doses of the other shots, said Stanford professor Dr Michael Lin. "From the principle of taking easy steps to prevent really bad outcomes, this is really a no brainer."

The CDC is not recommending boosters, and advisers to the agency said at a public meeting this week there is not yet significant evidence of declining protection from the vaccines...

DJ-"Not yet significant evidence" is waiting for large scale vaccine escape ? See also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Vaccine_efficacy[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Vaccine_efficacy ;

The WHO has said current vaccines will continue to be effective against the variant. In an update in May, they said there may be some evidence of "reduced neutralization".[37] A study conducted by the Public Health England, has found that both Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccines provide a 33% protection against symptomatic disease caused by the variant after the first dose. Two weeks after the second dose the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was found to be 88% effective at stopping symptomatic disease from the Delta variant while the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine was 60% effective against the variant.[38][39]

A group of researchers from the Francis Crick Institute, published in The Lancet shows that humans fully vaccinated with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine are likely to have more than five times lower levels of neutralizing antibodies against the Delta variant.[40][41]

In June 2021, Public Health England announced it had conducted a study which found that after two shots, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine and the AstraZeneca vaccine are respectively 96% and 92% effective at preventing hospitalisation from the Delta variant

DJ-If the UK is reporting over 50% of its Covid deaths are fully vaccinated either they did die from age/other illness or the vaccines offer less protection...You need to balance science based studies on what you see in real life...A lot of younger people go for the J&J vaccine-so they can party...we will soon enough find out how vaccines deal with it...

Again-more info on Delta+ is needed ! Could it be most of the spread is Delta+-but sequencing is a problem ? 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2021 at 6:39am

This:

DJ-If the UK is reporting over 50% of its Covid deaths are fully vaccinated either they did die from age/other illness or the vaccines offer less protection...You need to balance science based studies on what you see in real life...A lot of younger people go for the J&J vaccine-so they can party...we will soon enough find out how vaccines deal with it...

Again-more info on Delta+ is needed ! Could it be most of the spread is Delta+-but sequencing is a problem ?

   Why is this not in the media?

   This is serious "breakthrough" infections, I have heard nothing of this Stateside.

 

The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2021 at 8:29am

pheasant, In my opinion "media" do a bad job-again...[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917728-uk-more-than-50-of-deaths-from-delta-variant-are-in-the-vaccinated[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917728-uk-more-than-50-of-deaths-from-delta-variant-are-in-the-vaccinated as link-I want to provide proof of what I am saying...allthough it is not fully clear; 

Don’t think of this as a bad sign, it’s exactly what’s expected from an effective but imperfect jab

Sun 27 Jun 2021 03.00 EDT
...
It could sound worrying that the majority of people dying in England with the now-dominant Delta (B.1.617.2) variant have been vaccinated. Does this mean the vaccines are ineffective? Far from it, it’s what we would expect from an effective but imperfect vaccine, a risk profile that varies hugely by age and the way the vaccines have been rolled out.

-

As said before - vaccines are ONLY ONE TOOL in the public health tool box. In my opinion the total emphasis by certain governments on vaccine, vaccine, vaccine...gives the public a false impression. Vaccines can be A HELP....but they ARE NOT guaranteed.

NO SINGLE TOOL IS THE ANSWER.

Use your common sense.

DJ-Vaccinations can not do miracles...[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918205-covid-19-killed-26-indonesian-doctors-in-june%E2%80%94at-least-10-had-taken-china%E2%80%99s-sinovac-vaccine[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918205-covid-19-killed-26-indonesian-doctors-in-june%E2%80%94at-least-10-had-taken-china%E2%80%99s-sinovac-vaccineSINGAPORE—At least 10 of the 26 doctors in Indonesia who died from Covid-19 this month had received both doses of the vaccine developed by Sinovac Biotech Ltd., a medical association said, raising questions about the Chinese-made shot that is being used in many parts of the developing world.

The Indonesian Medical Association’s Covid-19 mitigation group is still working to verify the vaccination status of the 16 others, said Dr. Adib Khumaidi, who leads the group. According to the group’s latest figures, over a five-month period, at least 20 doctors who were fully inoculated with Sinovac’s vaccine died from Covid-19, accounting for more than a fifth of total fatalities among doctors during that time span.

The toll could rise further in the coming weeks as the country battles a surge in infections and hospitals across the archipelago fill up...

On the Delta virus [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917438-india-media-outlet-explains-why-there-may-be-a-large-undercount-in-covid-19-deaths-june-15-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917438-india-media-outlet-explains-why-there-may-be-a-large-undercount-in-covid-19-deaths-june-15-2021 ;The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation believes the true death toll in India may exceed 1.1 million, almost three times the reported number.

India's undercount has also left a huge gap in the world's understanding of the impact of the Delta variant, which health experts believe helped drive one of the world's worst Covid-19 surges in April and May...

DJ-An R0 of 6.0 maybe even as high as 8.0...in combination with almost all western countries reopening is unbelievable insane...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2021 at 8:30am

Over 80% of the UK's adult population is vaccinated3, so 50% of deaths being in the vaccinated groups shows it is working.  

Putting it another way, only 20% are unvaccinated, yet they contribute to a whole 50% of deaths.

If that is not too much maths already, our death rate has fallen from over a thousand per day to a large handful.


Vaccines are never 100% effective.  People think themselves immune immediately after vaccination, but full immunity takes 2 weeks or more - IN THE YOUNG AND HEALTHY.  Those who have immunocompromised status (HIIV patients , cancer patients, auto imune sufferers and transplantees who take immunosuppressant drugs for instance) cannot recieve full protection from a vaccine.  Our fatality numbers are now small enough to fall within these categories several times over.



We do seem to be being given the full facts  (which makes a nice change),  but no one is taking the time to explain the figures in words of one syllable.   The greater the proportion of the population vaccinated, the worse the figures look (if you don't look deeply enough). 

 If 100% of the population was vaccinated, 100% of the deaths would be in the vaccinated.  Although the death toll would have been a minute fraction of the numbers dying before, it would still look bad initially.*



As to the use of vaccines to facilitate social events, you are right.  That is just plain stupid!  

Reuters are currently reporting a need for booster shots, for those who used the J&J vaccine, of the PfizerBiontec or AstraZeneca.  So it is looking as if the J&J is less effective.  Still no precice figures though - grrr!  Reuters article, today







* At the height of the pandemic the UK reported 1820 Covid deaths1  The death toll for today was 3. (93 for the past week - an everage of 13 a day.)2 

How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2021 at 9:58am

[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/despite-rising-infections-israel-records-just-1-covid-death-in-2-weeks/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/despite-rising-infections-israel-records-just-1-covid-death-in-2-weeks/ ;

Coronavirus infections have been rising again over the past two weeks, but serious illness and death remain on a downward trend, indicating that Israel’s vaccination campaign is helping to prevent a major resurgence in morbidity.

On June 14, there were 206 active cases in Israel, a figure that had risen to 1,254 as of Monday following a series of local outbreaks.

Since then, only a single COVID-19 fatality has been recorded in the country and serious cases have declined from 30 to 22.


The spike in cases has had no apparent adverse effect on these numbers, apparently due to the high vaccination levels among older Israelis and those in at-risk groups. Most of the recent cases have been among young people, who are less vulnerable to serious illness.

According to the latest Health Ministry figures, 51 percent of active infections are among Israelis who are 19 or younger and 77.3% of those hospitalized in serious condition are unvaccinated.

DJ To put numbers in perspective...

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Some statistics [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics reporting june 29 77,544 detections in 74 countries...almost 60,000 of the in the UK...The real number must be much higher...

[url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ has the Delta variant going up almost all regions-only South America may be not going up very fast-likely related to an increase of the Lambda variant...(If that would be the case the Lambda variant could be an even bigger problem then the Delta variant already is...). 

In GISAID UK already 65,101 Delta variant cases detected, US 4,495, Germany 1,401, Singapore 911, Canada 783, Portugal 766, Spain 594, Russia 516, Italy 430, Belgium 395, France 362, South Africa 360, Indonesia 324, Denmark 280, NL 248, Australia 235, Japan 227, Switzerland 226, Mexico 223, Ireland 208, Sweden 167, Finland 126, Norway 115, Israel 113, Poland 101, Thailand 100, Bangladesh 95...Vietnam 72, Uganda 38, Kenya 37...

Since sequencing may be 100% of cases in Denmark, 50% of cases in UK rest of the world <5% in "poor countries"less then 1% the real numbers will be much higher...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/916069-china-confirmed-community-spread-of-1-617-variant-possible-delta-guangzhou-shenzhen-airport-worker-dongguan-city-guangdong-province-may-23-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/916069-china-confirmed-community-spread-of-1-617-variant-possible-delta-guangzhou-shenzhen-airport-worker-dongguan-city-guangdong-province-may-23-2021?view=stream latest activity; "The way the virus spreads is magical." If children in close contact are not infected, outsiders will be infected. What is the reason? The on-site team members are also very puzzled. "The recent local outbreaks of Delta mutant strains that occurred in Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Dongguan are the first head-to-head confrontation with Delta mutant strains. At present, we are still unclear on many aspects of Delta mutant strains, and we cannot judge why this is the case." Zhang Zewu, leader of the on-site prevention and control working group, said. Sleep tightly, and set off at any time. Academician Zhong Nanshan pointed out, “The Delta strain has a high load, and the exhaled gas is very toxic and highly infectious. In the same space, the same unit, the same building, and the same building, the disease In the first four days, the people who got along with these patients were all close contacts." This posed a huge challenge to the handling of the epidemic. As of 0:00 on June 24, 4 confirmed cases (including Li's husband Xiao) were initially determined to have close contacts with 2,552 people in Dongguan, and 2,518 people with close contacts once. This is an unprecedented and huge workload. “Last year, when the epidemic was at its worst, it was not so difficult!” said Luo Dong, deputy director of the Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

DJ-China earlier reported the Delta variant had an R0 of 6,0 without restrictions-some UK experts would put that at an R0 of 8...still many countries lifting restrictions, increase global air travel...With global vaccination immunity less then 10% we are increasing this pandemic...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Udix34rrSio[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Udix34rrSio Dr. John Campbell in one of several interviews on the Delta variant-from the comments; 

-Good Morning Dr John. Things are really bad here in South Africa due to the Delta variant.

-Good to get another update.  Why didn’t the government listen?

-Delta is deadly. Take it very seriously

-With South Africa and Australia in winter season and  lockdowns back, its not looking good overall.  Will be an interesting winter in Europe 

The UK has countries on its red list that have less cases and less variants than the UK.




DJ-The Delta variant is already pushing up cases in Europe +22%, deaths +5% https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table

It is already a problem in Europe-and North America is not doing much better cases up +8%, deaths +7%...in weekly trends...

Winter in the north part of the globe may see another variant giving problems...maybe a mix of Delta+/Lambda ? 

So far vaccinations may help to keep hospital cases/deaths limited but most of the "rich countries" are far away from herd immunity. Even Israel-best vaccinated-reporting increase of cases +302%-last week 300 cases became 1,206 cases this week...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osiVD0KdjCU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osiVD0KdjCU  Dr. Been very good info on Delta variant !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 30 2021 at 2:12am

Dr.John Campbell in conversation with Dr. Nigel Ferrier in Western Australia [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vui8VATr30U[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vui8VATr30U on the Delta variant. 

Since Australia has very limited vaccinations-30% of population did get a first vaccine I believe-and natural immunity is almost zero the Delta variant has a lot of chances in Australia. Dr.J.C. describing the Delta variant as a "pandemic on top of a pandemic"...

Dr. Ferrier on the Perth/Western Australia cases-15 seconds "contact"-just passing eachother-may be enough for spread....Earlier China reported that same kind of high level of infectiousness...

When one looks at the statistics of the UK and Israel-both on the top in vaccinations one has to get very worried...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2020#Knockout_phase[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2020#Knockout_phase has matches in Saint Petersburg-Russia, London UK...Baku Azerbaijan...Tokyo Olympics going on, Tour de France, Wimbledon...with the Delta variant doubling every week...

Here in NL over 400 cases per week of the Delta variant returning from vacations in Spain, Portugal...

Is insanity the new normal ? 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant ;

On 18 June 2021, Public Health England issued Technical Briefing 16 on SARS-CoV-2 variants, documenting 73 deaths among 60,655 UK cases of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant with a fatality rate of only 0.1%. This compared with a fatality rate of 1.9% (some 19 times higher) among 224,021 patients whose deaths were associated with the original Alpha variant.

DJ-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics only giving a glimpse of how widespread and fast spreading Delta is...

China reported short incunation time often 2-3 days...but also seen in Australia-people can test negative first-get out of-up to two weeks-quarantine-and turn out positive...Vaccination results (often ?) in asymptomatic infection...so one could still spread the virus. 

Since most of the world is less then 10% fully vaccinated-even some US and European states not doing that much better-and doubts on how good some vaccines can stop the Delta variant we are moving towards an almost "Global India scenario"...

Oxygen will be only one of the many problems. HCW-ers exhausted and demotivated-since also the spread of the Deltavariant should have been stopped by stopping air travel...-will become another problem.

The Delta-variant is pushing the global pandemic even further...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 30 2021 at 9:06am

I read somewhere that about half of Finland's new covid cases are linked to fans going to St.Petersburg for the Euro football.   You can fix stupidity

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 30 2021 at 4:35pm

Originally posted by EdwinSm, EdwinSm, wrote:

I read somewhere that about half of Finland's new covid cases are linked to fans going to St.Petersburg for the Euro football.   You can fix stupidity

And then everyone throws their hands in the air,when a new variant "suddenly appears"......

YOU CANT FIX THE STUPITY OF UNEDUCATED PEOPLE.........

take care all 😷😉



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 30 2021 at 8:38pm

Yes you can its called evolution in action.  Stupid begets bad outcomes

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 30 2021 at 10:14pm

Originally posted by Usk Usk wrote:

Yes you can its called evolution in action.  Stupid begets bad outcomes

But this would not qualify for a "Darwin Award", as their stupidity affects others and not just themselves.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 30 2021 at 10:20pm

Delta variant is 0.1% CFR. Its about as dangerous as the flu.


Ref: June 18, Public Health England report on "SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England"


The virus is moving through the community easier, and killing less people.  The media would have you believe Delta is more dangerous than original versions. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 01 2021 at 2:49am

DW (Deutsche Welle) Covid19/Delta in Russia [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zo75yYHFE2g[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zo75yYHFE2g ;

Russia is in the middle of its third coronavirus wave - thanks to the rapidly spreading Delta variant. The authorities are sounding the alarm: The new mutation accounts for almost 90 percent of new cases. Officials are talking about more than 20,000 new infections every day, most of them in Moscow. To get the situation under control, the Russian capital has reopened field hospitals and built medical stations especially for coronavirus. All hospitals are quickly being reequipped to handle COVID-19 patients.

But their main goal is to get more citizens vaccinated against COVID-19. Russia was the first country in the world to get a vaccine to market - with Sputnik Vee. So far, however, only 10 percent of the population has been vaccinated. The government wants that to change - by decree. From now on, all companies in Moscow must have at least 60 percent of their workforce vaccinated. Restaurants are still open, if only until 11 p.m. But in the future, only people who have been vaccinated, or who have a medical certificate showing they have recovered, or who have a negative PCR test, will be allowed to eat there. They will have to scan a QR code issued by the Moscow health authority.

That means all service-sector employees have to get the jab. Anyone who refuses will be fired. Those who take part will be rewarded. But even these unprecedented measures are a far cry from the tough lockdown the government imposed last year as infections began to rise. 

Virologists say it's a case of too little, too late - and that the third wave could be Russia's most devastating yet.

DJ-Since the Delta variant is 2/2.2 times more infectious then the early 2020 Covid variant-and vaccinations/NPI are "limited" at best-with health care getting exhausted-the pandemic again is getting worse.

Even in the UK with lots of vaccinations and people taking care/social distance etc. cases, hospital admission and deaths are going up. Vaccines may limit the damage-but variants will mutate further towards immune escape. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 01 2021 at 9:32am

From the report that Cobber referred to [https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/997418/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf]  I notice that in the age bracket of over 50 year old the CFR was 1,1% and that nearly 90% of that group had received at least one dose of vaccine.  I wonder what the CFR in this age group would be without the vaccination.


Also, with the hesitation that India (were Delta was first detected) has not been seen to do widespread testing, their reported CFR is 1.3% - so worse than flu.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 01 2021 at 10:08am

Cobber, the Delta variant is about as deadly as the flu, but it is FAR more contagious.  So it actually kills far more than the flu.  

The damage done by a contagion is due to its mortality and its transmissability.  The drop in death rate is from vaccination, not a less deadly variant.  The Delta variant is actually more deadly than the original strain.




Do you need this in words of one syllable? 

This bug kills like flu.  More folk get this bug than get the flu.  So this bug kills lots more folk than the flu.  Masks and jabs help fight this bug.  If we stop their use, it will kill lots more.  This bug makes folk sick for a long time too and that is bad. This new bug type is worse than the old bug was.  


OK?  Do you get it now?

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His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 01 2021 at 2:36pm

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

Cobber, the Delta variant is about as deadly as the flu, but it is FAR more contagious.  So it actually kills far more than the flu.  

The damage done by a contagion is due to its mortality and its transmissability.  The drop in death rate is from vaccination, not a less deadly variant.  The Delta variant is actually more deadly than the original strain.




Do you need this in words of one syllable? 

This bug kills like flu.  More folk get this bug than get the flu.  So this bug kills lots more folk than the flu.  Masks and jabs help fight this bug.  If we stop their use, it will kill lots more.  This bug makes folk sick for a long time too and that is bad. This new bug type is worse than the old bug was.  


OK?  Do you get it now?

Why bother Techno,

Falling on DEAF EARS ......

Rather listen to a dog bark all night....

Take care all 😷😉

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Voice of America: Britain Faces Travel Bans Amid Soaring Delta Variant Infections.

https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/britain-faces-travel-bans-amid-soaring-delta-variant-infections

Hey cobber ,maybe you should share your Vast knowledge  .......

With the people pulling the strings....... lmao

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 01 2021 at 4:15pm

Our vaccination rates are very high (80+%) yet our infection rates are still soaring (26 thousand today) but happily our death rate remains very low (22 today).  Our vaccines seem to be doing the trick - but doing the trick in preventing deaths, not preventing infections.  Yet our general population seem to think they are free of the damn bug!  Not sick is not the same as no risk to others.

So it makes a great deal of sense to ban us from other countries.  We are at risk of infecting and killing all unvaccinated people; in some countries that is almost everyone!  

We really need to ring bells and to shout: "Unclean!" as we walk by - as lepers did in times gone by.

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His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 01 2021 at 4:49pm

Someone will play the racist card,as they did here when we stopped flights from India.......

Makes me so angry,

Backward, ignorant people.....

Too insular to realise it's not about them........

It's for the greater good.......

Take care all 😷😉

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2021 at 8:21am

Edwin, Techno, I applaud you.  It is good to state the obvious, just in case it is not obvious to someone who may be reading.  But as far as the one your replies were specifically addressed to:

I am the DZ Queen, and I approve this message.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 04 2021 at 2:35am

DJ-Trying to follow statistics on "how bad the Delta variant is"....According to embedded media, science/politics for sale;

-Vaccines offer good protection

-My impression is the "official story" is spread in (partly) vaccinated offers "limited risk" for vaccine escape [url]https://theconversation.com/whats-the-delta-plus-variant-and-can-it-escape-vaccines-an-expert-explains-163644[/url] or https://theconversation.com/whats-the-delta-plus-variant-and-can-it-escape-vaccines-an-expert-explains-163644 ; The unique mutations in the Delta variant mean the virus can escape the immune system to some extent. Indeed, Delta has shown to reduce efficacy of vaccines somewhat. This means a single dose of vaccine may offer reduced protection.

-

UK researchers found the Pfizer vaccine had an efficacy of 33% against Delta after a single shot, and 88% after both doses. In the case of the AstraZeneca vaccine, the efficacy was just 33% after the first dose but went up to 60% after the second dose.

The Delta plus variant might have a similar degree of reduction in efficacy against the vaccines currently in use. Though we’re yet see good data on whether this is the case.

DJ-I notice a downward trend in protection offered by vaccines. 

[url]https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00202-4/fulltext[/url] or https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00202-4/fulltext ;

A key component of any plausible strategy towards the permanent removal of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is ensuring low case numbers in the short to medium term using NPIs and vaccination. Assuming a fixed vaccine escape mutation probability per infection (p), the risk of a vaccine escape variant arising in a specified time period is 1 – (1 – p)N, where N represents the number of cases in that period. Crucially, this expression indicates that the vaccine escape risk is sensitive to background incidence; the risk of an escape variant appearing within a fixed time is an increasing function of incidence (figure). Reducing cases is not only beneficial for decreasing the pressure on health-care systems, but also for lowering the vaccine escape risk.

Of course, there are fundamental differences between using NPIs and vaccines to lower incidence. When considering vaccines that do not prevent transmission entirely, there is an interplay between reduced cases at the population-level and the potential for selection for vaccine escape variants in infected vaccinated hosts.

 

 

 A related question is whether it is most beneficial to vaccinate many individuals using single vaccine doses or fewer individuals twice. Dose-sparing strategies could in theory lead to selection for vaccine escape variants.

-

 However, evidence suggests tentatively that the net vaccine escape risk is lower when more hosts are vaccinated with single doses than when fewer hosts are vaccinated twice due to reduced cases.

-

In summary, high SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates act to increase the vaccine escape risk. Maintaining low case numbers using NPIs and vaccines is crucial at this time.

DJ-A pre-pandemic study [url]https://www.healthline.com/health-news/leaky-vaccines-can-produce-stronger-versions-of-viruses-072715[/url] or https://www.healthline.com/health-news/leaky-vaccines-can-produce-stronger-versions-of-viruses-072715 ; By studying chickens, researchers say they have proven the theory that more virulent viruses can evolve from so-called “leaky” vaccines.

-

According to a new study published today in the scientific journal PLOS Biology, some types of vaccines could allow more virulent versions of a virus to survive, putting those who are unvaccinated at greater risk of severe illness.

This means ;

-Present vaccinations in this pandemic may cause new variants.

-A high number of infections may increase risk of (further) vaccine escape.

-Allready present vaccines show less protection against the Delta(+) variant

DJ-It would be welcome to see statistics on how many fully vaccinated people still get infected. Also-after infection-do they show no symptoms, spread the virus...or sometimes do get symptoms but not spread the virus seems also a reasonable question...

Here in NL we do NOT even have good statistics on fully vaccinated people...Linking infections to vaccines and variants needs good data...When those basic numbers are not there we have to rely on "studies" often dated studies...

-Some basic statistics on the story of "mild hay fever symptoms"; 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-june-24?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-june-24?view=stream shows UK has hospital cases going up 24,2%... Deaths has been under 20 for most of the time...

Finland [url]https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/check_how_the_covid_epidemic_and_vaccination_campaign_are_progressing_in_your_area__our_graphic_has_covid_stats_from_finland_and_the_world/11863045[/url] or https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/check_how_the_covid_epidemic_and_vaccination_campaign_are_progressing_in_your_area__our_graphic_has_covid_stats_from_finland_and_the_world/11863045 is also showing an increase in hospital cases +37,9% in the last two weeks...

[url]https://www.rt.com/news/528300-iran-fifth-wave-coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/news/528300-iran-fifth-wave-coronavirus/

Also [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table may provide info on how the Delta variant works out...In India it proberbly killed over 1 million-allthough the official statistics try to paint a different picture...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/why-covid-aids[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/why-covid-aids is trying to claim "only old and fat people die from Covid"...Makes me wonder who is paying for this garbage...In India most who died where not "old or fat" ....

Here in NL hospital cases still going down...but cases exploding...Very likely most-if not all-allready the Delta variant...allthough "embedded press/experts/politics" try to claim increased testing may be most of the story...since they have been pushing for reopening (paid by the same "club" as the zerohedge-nonsense claiming only old and fat die from Covid...?)

Another "story" is young people and vaccinated only get-at worst-mild symptoms...I expect hospital cases also to go up mid july...due to "mild hay fever like symptoms"...maybe we will see some restrictions by then in NL...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 06 2021 at 1:46am

DJ-[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-confirms-vaccine-less-effective-against-delta-variant-eyes-third-dose/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-confirms-vaccine-less-effective-against-delta-variant-eyes-third-dose/ 

Israel cases up +88%...last week 1,206-this week 2,269-deaths stay low...[url]https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general[/url] or https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general showing increase of severe disease (translate not doing the best job..).

[url]https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/covid-infections-in-israel-spike-by-50-percent-1.9973150[/url] or https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/covid-infections-in-israel-spike-by-50-percent-1.9973150 ; Forty-two percent of Israelis who caught COVID on Monday were vaccinated, spurring concerns over the efficacy of the vaccine against the highly contagious delta variant

-

Of the new infections, 31 recently returned from abroad and the rest were infected via community transmission. The R number, the average number of secondary infections from a single person, currently stands at 1.43.

-

The morbidity rate among children aged 0-11 has also quadrupled in the last week. The number of cases in this age group in Tel Aviv constitutes almost a third of the total morbidity of the age group across the country. In contrast, there was no significant increase in morbidity among youths aged 12-18.

DJ-Israel is top in vaccinations (most Pfizer-but the differences between vaccines may be limited). Of course under 12 y/o often are not vaccinated...but they were supposed not to get very ill...

UK-[url]https://www.rt.com/uk/528432-england-covid-lockdown-exit-johnson/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS[/url] or https://www.rt.com/uk/528432-england-covid-lockdown-exit-johnson/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS

Johnson said England was still seeing a rising number of Covid-19 infections and hospital admissions, warning that there could be 50,000 cases per day by July 19.

“We must reconcile ourselves sadly to more deaths from Covid,” he said, adding that the government must take a “careful and balanced” decision on restrictions.

Johnson said he expects the government will be able to lift the majority of remaining restrictions on July 19, with a review of the latest health data set for July 12.

-

Speaking alongside the PM on Monday, England’s chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty warned of the potential pressure Covid-19 may place on the National Health Service (NHS) next winter. “This coming winter may be very difficult for the NHS, and I don’t think that’s a particularly controversial point,” he said.

On Monday the UK reported a further nine deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test, and more than 27,000 new infections. The current rate of infection is 230 per 100,000 people, and in the last seven days there has been a 50% increase in new cases compared to the previous week, according to the latest government data.

DJ The UK is also supposed to be among the best protected countries...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table cases up +54%, deaths +5%...Coming winter "getting very difficult" statement in july by a Professor should be seen as a major warning ! 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant ; On 25 June 2021, Public Health England issued Technical Briefing 17 on SARS-CoV-2 variants, documenting 32 deaths among 11,250 UK cases of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant with 28 days follow-up with a fatality rate of 0.3%. This is similar to recent cases of the Alpha variant. These fatality rates are lower than the average fatality rate of 1.9%, presumably due to the now relative high percentage of the more vulnerable in England.[9][18] However, the real issue is the relative growth rate of 0.93/week, resulting in a per week relative growth factor of exp(0.93)=2.5 with respect to the Alpha variant. This results, under the same infection prevention measures, in a much greater case load over time until a large fraction of people have been infected by it.

 [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Delta_(lineage_B.1.617.2)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Delta_(lineage_B.1.617.2) ; 

On 3 June 2021, Public Health England reported that twelve of the 42 deaths from the Delta variant in England were among the fully vaccinated, and that it was spreading almost twice as fast as the Alpha variant.[129] Also on 11 June, Foothills Medical Centre in Calgary, Canada reported that half of their 22 cases of the Delta variant occurred among the fully vaccinated.[130]

In June 2021, reports began to appear of a variant of Delta with the K417N mutation dubbed the "Nepal variant".[131] The mutation, also present in the Beta variant, has raised concerns about the possibility of reduced effectiveness of vaccines and antibody treatments and increased risk of reinfection.[132] The variant, called "Delta with K417N" by Public Health England, includes two clades corresponding to the Pango lineages AY.1 and AY.2.[133] It has been nicknamed "Delta plus"[134] from "Delta plus K417N".[135] On 22 June, India's Ministry of Health and Family Welfare declared the "Delta plus" variant of COVID-19 a Variant of Concern after 22 cases of the variant were reported in India.[136] After the announcement, leading virologists said there was insufficient data to support labelling the strain as a distinct variant of concern, pointing to the small number of patients studied

DJ-India cases -12% deaths -33%...but the numbers may be "political manipulated"...

Also in NL some cases of people catching infection after fully vaccination did show up. But still limited and not yet clear enough...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 06 2021 at 3:48am

Josh,  

I have been thinking about all of the work that you and the others have done to help us. I understand what is going on here.  We are thankful that the group has been so supportive over the past year and a half.  Sometimes I wonder if our leaders have made a decision that shutdowns and restrictions are ineffective against the virus due to low or no vaccination rates in other parts of the world and have made the political choice to reopen despite the new variants.  They don't care about the human costs anymore and are focused on a return to normal.   The veneer of normalcy and a somewhat pandemic fatigued public helps to get our society back to normal.  Normal is what they want us to do.  Behind the scenes, they are panicked.   A few weelks ago i asked a friend who was still in the federal civil service about what he thought was going on.  He said that TPTB have accepted higher deaths and higher human disease because they have to keep the system working, taxxes paid , He mentioned a need to keep agriculture working and food processing and distribution working.  They kept mentioning the black deah and the 1918 pandemic.  He also said that the vaccines are a stop gap.  They know that the virus was made in a lab and was deliberately put out to cause chaos and hasten the decline of the West.  They know that the vrius will work around the vaccines and win in the short term.  They know that it will look bad for several more years and that millions will die.  TPTB have made a decision and we have to live or die with it.  



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 06 2021 at 5:11am

I tend to agree with your hypothesis,

I think that governments have now  provided the vaccine,and now with X amount  have been vaccinated they will say,we have done our best now it's up to you..... .

I don't agree that it's a deliberate release,

But I think after 2 years we have to open up and take our chances,if you haven't been vaccinated well that's YOUR FAULT.....

So go get a shot,

Seems like the chumps supporter's are still anti Vax.....

Well that's tough and natural selection is invoked......

The variants have me concerned......

And we will have to have boosters every 6/12 months.....

But as Jackdad said months ago this is a "slow burn" virus.....

Take care all 😷😉


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 06 2021 at 5:27am

[url]https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-fight-against-vaccine-fatigue/a-58162123[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-fight-against-vaccine-fatigue/a-58162123 ;

Germany —with more than 56% of its population vaccinated with one dose, and 39% fully vaccinated —is making giant strides towards a crucial point in combatting the pandemic: the point when herd immunity can be achieved by vaccinating 85 to 90% of the population. This goal can only be reached if skeptics and refusers can be convinced to get vaccinated. 

So far, the campaign has not managed to persuade them.

DJ- The "blame game"; here in NL politics now is telling the media they based reopening decissions on experts opinion...Earlier some experts already made it clear they did NOT agree with the political reopening choices...Of course "WE" do it wrong ! Always blame the citizens...

Blaming China is part of the blame-game...kick the can down the road..hope the crisis will go away...wishfull thinking...

ME163-The Powers That Be (TPTB) seem to have no idea what to do...no plan...Their advisors are Big Pharma...The hardest hit countries are not the western countries. Peru did-in official numbers-see already over 0,5% die in this pandemic...

From a historical point of view-till around 1900 infectious diseases killed more people per year then even during the Spanish flu died per year...(if I get that correct-I did try to find historic data...). Better housing, hygiene, sewage, clean water, better (knowledge of) healthcare all made a difference...

How this pandemic further develops may be a hard question..if Covid19-variants spread to non-human hosts it may get much, much worse...I simply do not have the knowledge to claim earlier pandemics at least sticked to one species...(allthough coming from another species). 

The Delta variant will-almost for certain-not be the last wave...If UK already is warning for a hard winter...Several countries (Spain, France, Norway etc.) are not reopening or going-again-for restrictions...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 06 2021 at 7:40am

I doubt if it was a deliberate release.  If hastening the demise of Western Civilization was their goal, they lose.  Their vaxxes don't seem to be as effective as ours and more of them are dying therefore.  As Carbon said, the people who are dying over here at present are the unvaxxed.  Natural selection.  Hopefully that trend will continue through any and all variants, if necessary, with the assistance of booster shots.

I am the DZ Queen, and I approve this message.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 09 2021 at 2:27am

From [url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing ;

1) Holy cow—the insane “logic that more people infected is better is **MORAL EMPTINESS and EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUPIDITY**” is the best critique of 

 & 

’s “living with the virus” Vlag van Engeland mass infection strategy. Thank you 

#COVID19

2) Reminder— Pandemicidal policies of encouraging mass infection is complete and utter lunacy. 

 should also be ashamed of himself for going along with it.

3) 

’s govt advisors have seriously gone ridiculously mad and / or lost all moral compass. 

 needs to resign if he truly feels morally uncomfortable with this.

4) As reminder, all critical measures of hospitalizations, ICU mechanical ventilation beds, and deaths all rising in England Vlag van Engeland!!! Yet UK health secretary 

 and 

 want to let virus spread and “live with the virus” by callously declaring “freedom day”! 

Let this sink in—currently 43 #COVID19 hospitalized in SydneyVlag van Australië, 10 of whom are in ICU. 4 of whom require ventilation. Pijl naar rechts“Of the 10 people in ICU, **one is age ~20s**. One is in their 30s. One is in their 50s”. That is the serious #DeltaVariant folks

5) The #DeltaVariant is particularly 1 dose vaccine evasive. Only 18-30% with one dose, much lower than before. Two doses better much much weaker. Scotland found 79% two dose Pfizer efficacy for #DeltaVariant infection, while Israel found 64-70%.

6) Israel’s ministry of health reported a 64% efficacy of 2 dose Pfizer in June when #DeltaVariant dominant, compared to 94% just in May recently. That’s a big drop. Another Israel study found 70% against delta, but same ballpark. Hospitalization efficacy now 93% instead of 98%

7) If you want to see what #DeltaVariant can do once it hits ~99-100% dominant, England is a notable rise in hospitalizations. England is even more fully vaccinated than the US. Yet still increase. This is why Australia cannot release its #COVID19 mitigation measures yet!

8) Sounds like New South Wales is having a hard time with compliance. They need to upgrade they masks and add more ventilation and indoor air disinfection too.

DJ While Pfizer-for profit-is trying to sell yet another vaccine/booster shot the vaccine strategy can not keep up with variants spread...Basicly vaccination/Big Pharma strategy may be making matters worse...pushing variants towards resistent variants able to infect hosts over and over again...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 11 2021 at 8:25am

[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/data-appears-to-indicate-covid-vaccine-protection-starts-fading-after-6-months/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/data-appears-to-indicate-covid-vaccine-protection-starts-fading-after-6-months/ ;

Most of the vaccinated people who have been recently infected got the shot around January, figures given to Health Ministry show; some caution it’s too early to draw conclusions.

There is a growing correlation between vaccinated Israelis who have been infected with the Delta variant of the coronavirus and those who were among the first to get the vaccine, possibly indicating that the vaccine’s protection fades over time, a report said Sunday.

However, some experts working with the Health Ministry cautioned that it was too early to draw conclusions, since the sample size was too small and those who were vaccinated first are mostly the elderly, who have a weaker immune system to begin with.

-

In Israel, the first to get the shot were mainly people over the age of 70, who are more vulnerable to COVID-19.

But Haas believes that even when controlling for age and other factors, the main reason for the renewed outbreak is that the vaccine’s protection fades over time, not that the Delta strain bypasses it.

DJ-Vaccines offering less protection due to time NOT variant....in older people with a less effective immune system. 

If time is a factor we will learn that in other countries...could be a mix of variants getting better in evading (older) vaccines in certain age groups-so they become less protected by the vaccines. A booster shot could then be usefull.

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 11 2021 at 2:32pm

It could be a little of both ,Delta a bit different, immunity fading......

The only problem with this is ultimately the virus changes....wether that's for good or evil.......

i'll consult my Oracle......!!!!! 

In the meantime I'll get my second shot of  Az ,and then maybe go for a mRNA..... always liked a cocktail...... usually a extra dry Martini(2 olive's)........lol

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 11 2021 at 2:32pm

The problem is with this being a novel virus we just don't know what the timescale is with either natural immunity, vaccine related immunity or with the evolution of the virus. History will look back at this, much like we do with the Spanish Flu of 1918, and comment on our successes and failures but at the moment we're literally flying blind.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2021 at 5:47pm

After being initially identified in India in October, the delta variant has since been reported in at least 104 countries around the globe and is expected to soon be the dominant coronavirus variant circulating worldwide, according to the World Health Organization. The variant was first detected in the U.S. in March and is now present in all 50 states.

"The delta variant is ripping around the world at a scorching pace, driving a new spike in cases and death," WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Gebreyesus said during a COVID-19 press briefing on Monday.


https://abcnews.go.com/Health/delta-variant-now-accounts-58-covid-19-cases/story?id=78834579

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 19 2021 at 7:07am

Reading this past Sunday's local newspaper, came across the obit of an ex-boyfriend of mine. He was only 58. A Virginia Beach police officer, died of Covid on the fourth of July.
According to Facebook posts he was unvaccinated due to his political beliefs!! SMH
His present girlfriend was also hospitalized with Covid, she is an oncology nurse of all things, unvaxxed! She was released two days before he passed away.
Such preventable circumstances!
Btw, they both had the Delta varient.

'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 19 2021 at 7:39am

From [url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing  (see also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Feigl-Ding[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Feigl-Ding ) ;

And as reminder — #DeltaVariant is leaps and bounds faster transmission than any other variant. Dr 

, who led smallpox eradication, even says Delta is more transmissible than smallpox!!! And it took his team years to eradicate smallpox!

-

WOW—one case at a soccer game went from initial infection to transmission to another person in just under **30 hours**!!! That is likely the fastest transmission ever formally documented during the pandemic. And yes it’s #DeltaVariant - damn damn damn. This is bad.

-

Want proof of another outdoor fleeting transmission case? Here it is — an outdoor cafe infection of fleeting contact — confirmed via even genomic sequencing to match the exact virus strain!! This is very strong proof it happened. This is why I worry - multiple bad signals.

-

in light of the above #DeltaVariant data, these partying at a nightclub in London as coronavirus restrictions are lifted by callous Boris Johnson and 

 are pretty insane.

DJ-There should be a law against insane "leaders"...BoJo, rutte (NL) are no better then bolsonaro...in Brazil committing genocide on the poor...(see also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox#Transmission )

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 23 2021 at 10:17am

[url]https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-s-coronavirus-cabinet-set-to-debate-more-restrictions-as-serious-cases-rise-1.10019684[/url] or https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-s-coronavirus-cabinet-set-to-debate-more-restrictions-as-serious-cases-rise-1.10019684

According to the latest Health Ministry figures from Thursday morning, the number of COVID-19 patients in serious condition is now at 72, nine up from Wednesday's figure.


There are also more patients on life support, going from 12 on Wednesday to 15.


A total of 145 Israeli COVID-19 patients are currently hospitalized.


Israel confirmed 1,336 new cases on Wednesday, with the rate of positive tests largely unchanged, at 1.74 percent. Of the confirmed carriers, 52 percent are fully vaccinated, and 38 percent are 18 or younger.


Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz said on Wednesday "We understand that the coronavirus isn't going anywhere soon. Our strategy is clear – live with the coronavirus."


Horowitz said the next school year will open "in full" thanks, in part, to rapid home testing authorities plan to make widely available.


The director-general of the Health Ministry, Prof. Nachman Ash, said on Wednesday that the ministry supports taking “immediate steps” to stop the spread of the virus.


In an interview with Israeli news website Ynet, Ash said that although the number of critically ill patients remains relatively low, "it’s best to act now. It will be difficult to stop once we reach larger numbers."



DJ-Allthough Israel testing of Pfizer against Delta may not be according to international testing protocol; [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/israel-finds-pfizer-jab-only-39-effective-stopping-delta-variant[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/israel-finds-pfizer-jab-only-39-effective-stopping-delta-variant ; Over the past month, Israel, the world's most heavily vaccinated country (with leading mRNA jabs, no less) has seen the number of positive COVID tests has risen by more than 30x as the number of active infections in the country has surpassed 10K.

 Meanwhile, the Israeli Health Ministry, which has previously estimated the true efficacy of the Pfizer jab against the delta variant at only 64% (while still more than 90% effective at preventing serious illness and death), just released new data purporting to show that while the Pfizer jab is still 88% effective at preventing serious illness, it's only 39% effective at preventing infection with delta.

Alex Berenson, a former NYT journalist who has often reported on scientific findings that don't support the official narrative on masks and vaccines, shared the findings in a tweet, and speculated that the true efficacy in offering protection against the Delta variant might be even lower - perhaps as low as 30%.

DJ UK testing shows-still-a higher level of protection from Pfizer...only the UK used most Astra Zeneca vaccines...Israel used most Pfizer vaccines ! So I take these Israeli stories very serious !

It is very likely SEVERAL variants may become "very good" in evading immunity...NOT stopping virus spread is speeding up vaccine escape mutations. 

Vaccinated people will more often get severe symptoms and long covid. 

It is an illusion we could "vaccinate ourselves" out of a pandemic without also NPI. 

On the longer term maybe new vaccines may offer some perspectives ? Then in combination with lots of restrictions etc ? 

This may take years....Governments should prepare the general public for "long term pandemic"...(DJ-It is good there is internet etc...). 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 28 2021 at 4:55am

A good summary; [url]https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/delta-variant-everything-you-need[/url] or https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/delta-variant-everything-you-need

With other diseases like Ebola, killing faster means killing too fast to infect many others, so this type of virus doesn’t prevail. Only the ones who at the same time evolve to be less deadly win. But for COVID in our current health system, all the contagions happen early on, much earlier than death. So making death earlier doesn’t matter much.

So is this what’s happening with Delta? Yeah.

One way to tell is the viral load. The higher it is, the more the virus is present. In China, they estimated the viral load of Delta to be 1,000 times higher than that of the original variant.

The most frustrating thing is that this was completely predictable, not just in December, but even in March of 2020.

This is from The Hammer and the Dance, so March 18th 2020. More than a year ago, and just a few weeks after Wuhan

DJ-Not a nice story...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 28 2021 at 7:55am

Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

A good summary; [url]https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/delta-variant-everything-you-need[/url] or https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/delta-variant-everything-you-need

With other diseases like Ebola, killing faster means killing too fast to infect many others, so this type of virus doesn’t prevail. Only the ones who at the same time evolve to be less deadly win. But for COVID in our current health system, all the contagions happen early on, much earlier than death. So making death earlier doesn’t matter much.

So is this what’s happening with Delta? Yeah.

One way to tell is the viral load. The higher it is, the more the virus is present. In China, they estimated the viral load of Delta to be 1,000 times higher than that of the original variant.

The most frustrating thing is that this was completely predictable, not just in December, but even in March of 2020.

This is from The Hammer and the Dance, so March 18th 2020. More than a year ago, and just a few weeks after Wuhan

DJ-Not a nice story...



We're right back in the 'more bad news drops multiple times a day' phase.  I did not want to have to go through this again. IT DIDN'T HAVE TO BE THIS WAY! 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 28 2021 at 9:14am


Here is a worthwhile tweet furnished by author Stephen King. Even though his monumental pandemic novel The Stand was first published over 40 years ago in 1978, the horror maestro has offered up an audio rendering  of the chapter where he explains in his folksy fictional fashion how a dangerous virus spreads. It is a chilling listen, the simplicity of how a global pandemic spreads like this one has.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jwN5vYGiZws&feature=youtu.be

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 28 2021 at 10:17am

Originally posted by Pixie Pixie wrote:


Here is a worthwhile tweet furnished by author Stephen King. Even though his monumental pandemic novel The Stand was first published over 40 years ago in 1978, the horror maestro has offered up an audio rendering  of the chapter where he explains in his folksy fictional fashion how a dangerous virus spreads. It is a chilling listen, the simplicity of how a global pandemic spreads like this one has.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jwN5vYGiZws&feature=youtu.be



Thanks for this.   Since I read the book when it first came out, and then read it again at some point,  I'm now wondering if it had an impact on my 'take this stuff seriously' mindset! 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 03 2021 at 12:56pm

I may be over doing it right now...but can anyone blame me for not walking the dog by the day care playground anymore? All the kiddies come up to the fence and want to pet him and I can only think of Delta floating on a cloud towards me! I am talking over 30 elementary school kiddos here.

I am double vaxxed, but our retirement community is "recommending masks" right now. All staff have to wear them, but of course all of thier schnazzes are hanging out - so what is the point? I sometimes feel I am the only person living in reality.

My friend here- her grandaughter has pneumonia - 31, not vaxxed...I said it sounds like Covid- they are waiting on the results.

'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 03 2021 at 1:39pm

Yep!  I have always sympathised with Cassandra;  never so much as now though.

How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2021 at 2:50am

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cjGPMm-lMQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cjGPMm-lMQ MedCram

Good info on Delta variant; 

A coronavirus (COVID-19) variant has become dominant in the USA and Roger Seheult, MD of MedCram responds to 10 common questions including: 

If someone is fully vaccinated or already had COVID, how worried should they be about the Delta Variant? 

Is Long COVID occurring in the fully vaccinated? 

When is this surge going to peak? 

Can we learn from other countries? 

Should we be getting booster COVID vaccine doses? 

Are more children getting hospitalized with COVID 19 Delta variant? 

What happens when school starts? 

Have treatment and testing strategies changed for Delta variant? 

What can we do to protect ourselves and our communities from the coronavirus Delta variant and future COVID mutations? 

This video was recorded on August 6, 2021 Roger Seheult, MD is the co-founder and lead professor at https://www.medcram.com He is Board Certified in Internal Medicine, Pulmonary Disease, Critical Care, and Sleep Medicine and an Associate Professor at the University of California, Riverside School of Medicine.

DJ At 10 minutes-who is better of getting 1 million $ or 1 penny/cent doubling for 30 days ? Answer after 30 days you end up with 5,368,709 $...just showing the exponential factor...

Also Delta most likely will NOT be dominant this winter...but another Covid variant most likely allready spreading...

DJ-Not good news-but realistic info !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2021 at 8:31am

[url]https://twitter.com/DFisman[/url] or https://twitter.com/DFisman ;

Sharing this via twitter because I think it's in the public interest to know: we now have enough delta cases in kids, and enough pediatric hospitalizations in Ontario, that we can estimate the odds ratio for hospitalization with delta.  It is increased, OR = 2.75 (1.59 to 4.49)

[url]https://twitter.com/HurleyOCHUCUPE/status/1425951449348034560[/url] or https://twitter.com/HurleyOCHUCUPE/status/1425951449348034560 ;

Premier Ford visited St. Joseph’s hospital in Hamilton to thank front line health care workers for their contribution during the pandemic. While the thanks are kind, his government’s real wage cuts for hospital workers for the next 3 years are not. Breathtaking insincerity.

-

Last 7 days 39,767 new child Covid cases, England. One year ago 799 Last 7 days 278 admitted to hospital with Covid One year ago 16 Last 7 days an extra 1,750 may suffer #LongCovidKids One year ago 35

DJ Here in NL R0 has been going up...from 0,79 to 0,87 representing the R0 of july 29...so by now the R0 in NL most likely above 1...Still schools soon will reopen without good ventilation, social distancing, masks, testing, .....criminal !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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