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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Delta Virus

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CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2021 at 9:25pm

This is a very good overview article on SARS-CoV2, I recommend it!   Lots of discussion about the future & potential impact of variants.

https://www.statnews.com/2021/08/20/viral-evolution-101-coronavirus/

Viral evolution 101: Why the coronavirus has changed as it has, and what it means going forward


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2021 at 10:40pm

DJ-From the article;

“A virus just can’t change a couple amino acids and completely evade the totality of the immune response,” said virologist Angela Rasmussen of the University of Saskatchewan’s Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization, referring to the building blocks that make up the virus.

Our first line of defenders is antibodies, some of which are trained to recognize specific pieces of the virus and prevent it from infecting cells. If mutations change those components — akin to putting on a fake mustache and sunglasses — then perhaps the antibodies geared to identify the virus’ upper lip or eyes might be fooled. The virus could gain a toehold and start an infection. But the vaccines have primed our bodies to recognize other parts of the virus, and to have waves of responders. Antibodies that latch on to other parts of the virus could kick in, and immune cells that help clear out infections before they cause much damage could arrive as reinforcements.

Maybe that should be the biggest worry; If you compare the virus-RNA string with a worm. The part that is "biting/infecting" us may now be in the front...but it could develop all over the strain...

To compare the RNA-string further with a worm...it's "teeth" may be even at different locations. The worm has to put itself in a certain position to form a "mouth" to be able to bite...

So far this virus has been so full of surprises it is very likely to develop towards getting "more agressive" (Also UK-SAGE study goes in that direction). 

The changes go further than a "fake mustache and sunglasses"-it could develop a different face...not recognizable for the immune system. (In a bizarre comparison it would be a person that changed his head...). 

In my opinion the risks for a resistant variant are increasing. Wishfull thinking does not help ! Delta has a R0 of between 5 and 8-vaccines in combination with strong restrictions may get the R0 under 1...stop the spread. Vaccines to give up on restrictions is bagging for new-worse-variants (with a R0 towards 12...). 

"Living with the variant" is like living with a wildfire hoping rain will stop it before it reaches your house...I know going for restrictions is a very hard way to go...not doing so may show itself-very likely within six months-still to be a worse choice. 

I am NOT an expert...just trying to make sense. Summer 2020 did not save us, vaccines did not get us out of this pandemic...False promisses, wishfull thinking, is not helping in any crisis. 

When you look at history the pandemic triangle; disease-hosts-spread has a much higher "spread" factor now...Covid19 would proberbly stayed very limited-maybe not noticed-if it was in 1519 not in 2019...Spread is the motor behind this pandemic-also making the disease more infectious. Part 3-hosts-so far is only limited to human hosts...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 25 2021 at 12:00am

Thanks, DJ!  I agree, it is a confusing virus! 

Realize that we have co-existed with other corona virus for many thousands of years....most of them are benign, causing the common cold.  They initially started out as more deadly, as did COVID-19. 

My wife and I still follow the same protocols we did at the beginning of the pandemic, including masking, social distancing, hand washing etc.  We avoid dining out and only shop with masks.  We are as tired of it as everyone else, but there is so much uncertainty about immunity, effectiveness of vaccines etc. that we are being prudent. 

Take care, my friend!  My Great-Grandfather was named "Lindelsee!" 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 25 2021 at 1:18am

CRS,DrPH- Since I am NOT an expert "just" following the story I know there is a risk of me wrinting (to much) non-sense. I try to limit that...try to check it...But there is an "ocean of info" and not all of it is directing in the same directions...

Wishfull thinking is only human. I wish we were out of this pandemic, in many ways living with this pandemic is getting exhausting...

"Lindelsee" to be honest sounds more German...[url]https://www.ancestry.com/name-origin?surname=lindelsee[/url] or https://www.ancestry.com/name-origin?surname=lindelsee there are lotst of paid data-geneology sites-often asking money for info that is available for free elsewere...But some Germans first lived in NL then moved further...(Gilbert N. ???)

[url]https://stadsarchief.rotterdam.nl/zoek-en-ontdek/passagierslijsten/[/url] or https://stadsarchief.rotterdam.nl/zoek-en-ontdek/passagierslijsten/ has names of passengers on the Holland America Line...[url]https://heritage.statueofliberty.org/[/url] or https://heritage.statueofliberty.org/ has lists of people getting into the US (my grandfather is on that list for 1907...he returned a few years later to NL...) ...

When I think of the US maybe 10% of US "culture" maybe from NL...certainly in New York State...Dutch was spoken/used till the end of the 19th century at public places (churches, some schools, but also some basic bookkeeping was in Dutch...Martin van Buren [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Van_Buren[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Van_Buren was born in a place called "Kinderhook" (In Dutch it would be "Kinderhoek") [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinderhook_(town),_New_York[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinderhook_(town),_New_York 

Of course [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yankee#Dutch_origin[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yankee#Dutch_origin

Most linguists look to Dutch language sources, noting the extensive interaction between the Dutch colonists in New Netherland (now largely New York, New Jersey, Delaware, and western Connecticut) and the English colonists in New England (MassachusettsRhode Island, and eastern Connecticut).[8] The exact application, however, is uncertain; some scholars suggest that it was a term used in derision of the Dutch colonists, others that it was derisive of the English colonists.

Michael Quinion and Patrick Hanks argue that the term comes from the Dutch name Janneke, a diminutive form of Jan (John)[13] which would be Anglicized as "Yankee" due to the Dutch pronunciation of J as the English Y. Quinion and Hanks posit that it was "used as a nickname for a Dutch-speaking American in colonial times" and could have grown to include non-Dutch colonists, as well.[13] The Oxford English Dictionary calls this theory "perhaps the most plausible".

Alternatively, the Dutch given names Jan (Dutch: [jɑn]) and Kees (Dutch: [keːs]) have long been common, and the two are sometimes combined into a single name (Jan Kees). Its Anglicized spelling Yankee could, in this way, have been used to mock Dutch colonists. The chosen name Jan Kees may have been partly inspired by a dialectal rendition of Jan Kaas ("John Cheese"), the generic nickname that Southern Dutch used for Dutch people living in the North.[14]

The Online Etymology Dictionary gives its origin as around 1683, when English colonists used it insultingly in reference to Dutch colonists (especially freebooters. Linguist Jan de Vries notes that there was mention of a pirate named Dutch Yanky in the 17th century.[15] The Life and Adventures of Sir Launcelot Greaves (1760) contains the passage, "Haul forward thy chair again, take thy berth, and proceed with thy story in a direct course, without yawing like a Dutch yanky."[16] According to this theory, Dutch settlers of New Amsterdam started using the term against the English colonists of neighboring Connecticut.[14]

Is just one of many examples of NL-US links...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 25 2021 at 1:37am

DJ,I think you are quite correct,travel in the 21st century is the thing driving the variants....,as you say in 1521 things would have been quite different,Doc,had similar conversation with my daughter ,when the 1st corona virus hit the human race,it would have been bad. People forget this is a " Novel" virus,which seems to have the legs to turn into something much worse.....

Take care all 😷😉💉

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 25 2021 at 2:02pm

Hi DJ!  I was always told that Grandpa Lindelsee was Dutch!  Who knows?  My genome is comprised of Dutch (maybe), German, Irish, Slovak components!  Typical American mongrel.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 25 2021 at 3:48pm

Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

Hi DJ!  I was always told that Grandpa Lindelsee was Dutch!  Who knows?  My genome is comprised of Dutch (maybe), German, Irish, Slovak components!  Typical American mongrel.  

I'm a mongrel with all of above and more, and even a little Neaderthal/Desanovian thrown in ,

the human race is a Great big melting pot..........lol

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 25 2021 at 9:55pm

CRS, DrPH...I also did find names like "Wobke Lindelsee" that kind of names is from [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friesland[/url].......You also have [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Frisian_Peninsula[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Frisian_Peninsula and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordfriesland_(district)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordfriesland_(district) -even parts of west Danmark are seen as (in history) part of "Friesland"...

In the 19th century agricultural revolution meant a lot of jobs were lost in these parts of the country. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_diaspora[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_diaspora (Wiki does not (yet) include the Frisian diaspora after the 1890 agriculture crisis and the 1929 global economy crisis).

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frisian_Americans[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frisian_Americans

In the New Netherland colony, Frisian people from North Frisia, East Frisia and West Friesland were the largest ethnic group in the city of New Amsterdam which later became New York City.[3] The New Amsterdam area was chiefly explored by one Jonas Bronk who led a group of settlers from North Frisia, and the region was later named The Bronx after him.[3] Bronk (also known as Bronck) himself is said to have been either Danish or Swedish.[4][5] Many North-Frisian settlers were refugees of the Burchardi flood of 1634 which had destroyed the wealthy island of Strand. According to Paulsen, "they introduced their old democratic traditions into the patrician Dutch society of that time."[3]

Because there is no modern united Frisian state, Frisian Americans are often included within Dutch Americans, German Americans or Scandinavian Americans

DJ Can I think of a link with this pandemic ? Often people want to visit family that did not migrate, look for roots...We have an Open Air Museum here [url]https://www.openluchtmuseum.nl/ontdek?taal=en[/url] or https://www.openluchtmuseum.nl/ontdek?taal=en in a normal year over 60% of the visitors is not from NL but often with NL roots...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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