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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Depressing world stats.

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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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    Posted: August 21 2021 at 10:30pm

I keep wondering if I should stop taking a daily look at the world Stats for Covid-19.   The patterns are complicated as countries seem to go through wave like patterns that when put together make a swirling mess of data, although sometimes the local waves form into a large world-wide swell (it is looking as if we are in the third world-wide swell)  

Just when the UK numbers were dropping the country was hit by Delta...what other local waves are coming?   Likewise the USA numbers were dropping and are now rising fast again.   [I find these new waves depressing]   Seeing this also happening in Israel after high vaccination rates is also depressing.

Then there are some small island states that are currently seeing massive rises in the per-capita case and death rate (I will post more on this when a full month's data is in).  This shows just how fast covid can sweep small areas, and how quickly it can overcome the health facilities - here larger countries might have an advantage if they can ship hospital cases all over the country.  I am sure if one lived in places like Fiji or the French Polynesia it would not now seem like a "powder puff".

I mentioned, above, about countries showing a wave pattern...but quite a few are showing straight line statistics [Belarus is the worse example with between 9 and 11 deaths a day without variation]  This pattern clearly shows the official statistics are not reflecting what is actually happening, probably because there is limited testing capacity and the numbers show the results of test and not the overall picture.  It is depressing that some countries showing large number of deaths also seem to be following this sort of pattern, (I include Russia and Iran in this group).  It is depressing that the real situation in places seems to be be much worse the the already awful situation official statistics are reporting.

When comparing neighbouring countries it seems to show up under-reporting.  Thus India's current rates look suspiciously low when countries like Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are all showing much higher per-capita rates.  I know the rates between neighbouring countries can vary, but i would have expected somewhat similar wave pattern, but at slightly differing times.  

Recently a number of S.E,Asian countries which had seen very low levels of Covid during the first year of the outbreak have seen numbers rise significantly: places like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam - all countries with large populations.  


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I find Josh's daily report interesting, but depressing as the political will was not there to stop this in the tracks and now we have to learn to live with this sweeping wave of variant after variant, like the common cold but more deadly.  I suppose I need to get out the novels and stories of the 1800s when "Consumption" [T.B.] was a big killer, This might give an idea of how society coped with the ever present threat of death.   

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2021 at 11:25pm

I find my own reports also quite depressing ! But what keeps me doing it is there are also limited signs of hope in the overload of info...

New-better-vaccines [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02260-9[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02260-9 

Lots of studies on finding treatments, cures...Also what is wise-when ? We are lost in a labyrinth-may have to accept it and make the best of it...

[url]https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD[/url] or https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD ; It is a *forseen* emergency. Scientists knew in May what the scale of 4th wave will be if we reopen too fast, and that the wave can be avoided if we reopen slow. Using a bad policy GOA and AH produced this wave and this emergency. It’s a man-made wave

DJ All of this pandemic is man made due to inaction stopping the spread early 2020...The "good" part is better choices can save many lives-even end this pandemic !  Mrs Gosia Gaspero is a developmental biologist in Alberta-Canada. Part of a group of scientists claiming strict lockdown+high level of vaccinations still could end this pandemic within 10 weeks-3 months...

So GOOD politics could get us-still-out of the pandemic ! 

Maybe also another point is we all live here and now ! You do not have to "stop thinking" to balance worries with enjoying a sunrise, coffee, good meals, pleasant books, movies, company..

When you dive into history for most of us-even with this pandemic-living 80 years back would maybe be far worse then living now...(what am I writing, end of august 1941....mmmmmmmm-even makes some sense for me...I do not have a choice-but august 22 1941 or august 22 2021 I am still "glad" to live here and now !)

I think-at best-statistics give indications...You can dive into numbers-some countries did start later on with vaccinations and-for that reason-may see less people with vaccine "escape" because of waning immunity...(Since protection never was claimed to be 100%-95% protection would be very good-an "escape" of less then 5% of vaccinated people getting infected should be expected-is not realy an "escape"! Vaccines-in general (even the Chinese vaccines-less protection=more booster shots !) are one of the "good things" in this pandemic !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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