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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

Disease X

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roni3470 View Drop Down
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    Posted: January 11 2024 at 12:24pm

Anyone heard about this yet?  I am on twitter and getting news that the WHO is meeting on Disease X on Jan 17.  The note quotes WHO stating that an unknown Disease X could result in 20 times more fatalities than coronovirus.  I have been super busy at work so not paying attention but didn't see anything on here about it.  Anyone?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 11 2024 at 12:27pm

Now I am reading conspiracy theories saying all sorts of things....and I don't like to listen but can't help but wonder.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 11 2024 at 10:50pm

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease_X[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease_X ;

Disease X is a placeholder name that was adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO) in February 2018 on their shortlist of blueprint priority diseases to represent a hypothetical, unknown pathogen that could cause a future epidemic.[4][5] The WHO adopted the placeholder name to ensure that their planning was sufficiently flexible to adapt to an unknown pathogen (e.g., broader vaccines and manufacturing facilities).[4][6] Director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Anthony Fauci stated that the concept of Disease X would encourage WHO projects to focus their research efforts on entire classes of viruses (e.g., flaviviruses), instead of just individual strains (e.g., zika virus), thus improving WHO capability to respond to unforeseen strains.[7] In 2020, experts, including some of the WHO's own expert advisors, speculated that COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus strain, met the requirements to be the first Disease X.[1][2][3]

and [url]https://www.weforum.org/events/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2024/sessions/preparing-for-a-disease-x/[/url] or https://www.weforum.org/events/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2024/sessions/preparing-for-a-disease-x/ 

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM ANNUAL MEETING
A LONG-TERM STRATEGY FOR CLIMATE, NATURE AND ENERGY

Preparing for Disease X

With fresh warnings from the World Health Organization that an unknown “Disease X” could result in 20 times more fatalities than the coronavirus pandemic, what novel efforts are needed to prepare healthcare systems for the multiple challenges ahead?

This session is linked to the Partnership for Health System Sustainability and Resilience and the Collaborative Surveillance Initiative of the World Economic Forum.

DJ, So

-YES there are talks on january 17

-YES it is about disease "X" 

-NO !!!! Disease "X" for now is a theory/model to prepare for a much worse pandemic

-???? Is CoViD moving towards "disease X" ? Is the out come of CoViD opening the door to a mix of diseases/a multi disease pandemic ? 

My far from perfect view; CoViD is out of control, Long CoViD is growing fast, new variants may not be stopped (enough)  by present vaccines...So WHO etc. may be discussing plans how to deal with the present CoViD crisis getting (much) worse...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2024 at 8:29am

Yeah, I knew it was just a placeholder name but the fact that they are discussing it leads one to believe they have new reasons to be worried.  Is it COVID?  i don't think so.  I am hearing rumblings of more of an ebola type virus they are worried about.  Of course its all just gossip at this point but who knows....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2024 at 8:35am







As predictably predictable as it gets, a new and potentially supremely fit sub-variant - JN.1.11 has already emerged (likely out of India). Sequences going global now.

DJ, it may be a combination of diseases...CoViD opening the door to flu...so lots of people get very ill and healthcare runs out of capacity...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-worrisome-jn-1-indian-sub-lineage-jn-1-11-that-thailand-medical-news-warned-about-is-now-increasing-in-spread-across-india[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-worrisome-jn-1-indian-sub-lineage-jn-1-11-that-thailand-medical-news-warned-about-is-now-increasing-in-spread-across-india 

I do -indeed- think the timing is NOT a coincidence...there may be very major concerns on how to deal with what may be already moving...

Ryan Hisner

@LongDesertTrain
·
Delta's still hanging around—and packing heat, in the form of 30+ spike mutations. As w/other recent Delta singlets, this is very likely 1 chronically infected person‚ not a circulating variant. But it's a healthy reminder that the prospect of a Delta comeback always looms

Maybe people catch different forms of CoViD ? "SARS-3...AND SARS-4 AND SARS-5" all at pandemic level...calling it all "O-micron" may no longer work...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2024 at 10:36am

I noticed that Dr John Campbell did a video on Disease X but he took it down shortly after posting as he feared he'd gone a step too far and would be cancelled by YouTube. From what I can gather, scientists have done gain of function research on a highly contagious brain disease that when tested on mice, had a 100% fatality. You'd have thought they would have learned from Covid but no....


Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2024 at 12:37pm

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noNa3WUGpC8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noNa3WUGpC8  ;Dr. John Campbell

Disease X is looming https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/0... 

The world needs to be better prepared to tackle a future pandemic, By mapping viruses with the potential to become the next “Disease X”, the global health community and governments can be more responsive the next time a pandemic looms 

Global collaboration and adequate funding are needed to improve pandemic preparedness and ensure fast action to keep a viral outbreak at bay “You can get a long way towards being able to produce something that will target a novel virus before that virus even emerges.” 

“It’s a virus that we don't know yet, but we do know is out there, and we do know has the potential to spill over from an animal population potentially into humans, perhaps mutate or adapt itself and then begin spreading and killing people faster than we can contain it.” … carrying out research and vaccine development for known viral “families” that could impact humans – of which there are 25 – would give humanity a decided advantage over the next Disease X.

DJ from minute 4...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2024 at 6:43pm
Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2024 at 9:41pm
John Hopkins: The SPARS Pandemic 2025–2028 A Futuristic Scenario to Facilitate Medical Countermeasure Communication Johns Hopkins University

link [url]https://pure.johnshopkins.edu/en/publications/the-spars-pandemic-20252028-a-futuristic-scenario-to-facilitate-m[/url] or https://pure.johnshopkins.edu/en/publications/the-spars-pandemic-20252028-a-futuristic-scenario-to-facilitate-m 

The SPARS Pandemic 2025–2028: A Futuristic Scenario to Facilitate Medical Countermeasure Communication

-

Abstract

Effective communication about medical countermeasures—including drugs, devices, and biologics—is often critical in emergency situations. Such communication, however, does not just happen.

 It must be planned and prepared for. 

One mechanism to develop communication strategies is through the use of prospective scenarios, which allow readers the opportunity to rehearse responses while also weighing the implications of their actions. 

This article describes the development of such a scenario: The SPARS Pandemic 2025–2028. 

Steps in this process included deciding on a time frame, identifying likely critical uncertainties, and then using this framework to construct a storyline covering both the response and recovery phases of a fictional emergency event. 

Lessons learned from the scenario development and how the scenario can be used to improve communication are also discussed.

DJ, The WHO presentation on the World Economic Forum in Davos-Switzerland will have been planned months ago-I think...(There may not be much room for last minute changes unless it is very urgent.)

However -in communications- governments NOW !!!! have to change the story from "post CoViD pandemic fantasy" to "we are losing control over an ongoing pandemic"...

One trick can be "it is a completely new disease"...mixed with (again) blame games; "almighty Putin did it", China (lab-leak story..so far without real proof)....

Reality is "living with CoViD" in farm animals did NOT work...Non sterilizing vaccines only buy time but result in new immunity evading variants...so "vaccines only" did see BILLIONS of taxpayer money go to Big Pharma (shareholders...buying politicians)...Like lack of action in 2019/20 did make CoViD-19 a pandemic "wave two" of CoViD-19 is the outcome of bad policies...

"Disease-X" in fact is a political disease -greed instead of science- curing that disease requires other "steps"...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 17 2024 at 6:44am

Besides info on (Chinese) cases of H9N2, H5N6 flu and [url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/01/joint-ecdc-who-europe-mpox-surveillance.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/01/joint-ecdc-who-europe-mpox-surveillance.htmlPerhaps even more concerning, more than 12,000 cases (almost certainly an under-count) of Mpox Clade I - which is far more dangerous - were reported in the DRC in 2023. 

Avian Flu Diary also has a story on [url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/01/eid-journal-dispatch-experimental-sars.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/01/eid-journal-dispatch-experimental-sars.html ;

While governments and health agencies have declared the COVID emergency to be over - and the public clearly longs to put our protracted pandemic behind us - SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve, adapt, and expand its host range.


Numerous variants of SARS-CoV-2 now circulate - alongside MERS-CoV, and dozens of other coronaviruses - in scores of mammalian species, all following divergent evolutionary paths (see Nature: Comparative Susceptibility of SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV Across Mammals).
Which means the possibility exists that another radically different COVID variant could eventually emerge - possibly from a non-human host - for which we humans have little or no immunity.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus was undiscovered until it emerged in late 2019, but scientists had been warning of some thing `like it' for years (see 2016's PNAS: SARS-like WIV1-CoV Poised For Human Emergence).

In October of 2019, a novel coronavirus (CAPS - Coronavirus Acute Pulmonary Syndrome ) was selected as the fictional pandemic pathogen in a major tabletop exercise (see JHCHS Pandemic Table Top Exercise (EVENT 201) Videos Now Available Online).

While SARS-CoV-2 is exquisitely adapted to human hosts, it has also branched out to other mammals, and we've seen evidence that the virus can mutate and evolve in those non-human hosts and then spill back into humans. 

-

While the significance of SARS-COV-2 susceptibility in mule deer may be slight, the entrenchment of SARS-COV-2 into so many different non-human hosts raises the distinct possibility that - very much like with novel influenza - COVID may evolve and `reinvent' itself in other hosts at irregular intervals, and then spill back into humans. 

Since COVID is already well adapted to mammals, it may even be capable of sparking more frequent pandemics than does novel influenza.  Time will tell.

The uncomfortable truth is we now live in a new age where the the number, frequency, and intensity of pandemics are only expected to increase over the next few decades (see PNAS Research: Intensity and Frequency of Extreme Novel Epidemics).

Which is why we should be preparing seriously now, lest we risk being caught flat-footed and unprepared.

Again.

DJ, there is a lot of stories on the Pangolin Corona-Virus study from China-finding that the virus day 3 most spread in the lungs-day 6 brain inflammation...killing lab-mice..

The biggest problem is "we do not want to see the risks"....If we would face those risks we have to change the way we live...We have been lucky-much more lucky than we like to know- in the way we did not see much larger problems earlier...

DJ-my non expert view; Disease "X" is just a matter of time...we are doing ALL WE CAN to create such a disease...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 19 2024 at 2:29am

Just a note, 

Some idiots think that this is one of the four horsemen of the end times. It is a theory. We need to prep like nuts.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2024 at 5:00am

If that is true end of days is not survivable so why prep?  Just saying. We are all doomed and have to die of something 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2024 at 12:31pm

I agree that we have to die of something, but I keep remembering the closing scene of some film I saw years ago. I can't remember what the film was or even what it was about, but there was some kind of monster that was killing everyone and in the closing scene, the family the film had been following were escaping in their car. They got engulfed in smoke or fog and could hear these awful sounds of these creatures all around them, so the parents looked at each other, and the father took out a gun and shot each of their children and then his wife, and just as he's about to shoot himself, the smoke clears and suddenly he sees the US army outside his car killing these things. If only he had held out 2 minutes more........

So I think about that and think we have to try to hold out just that bit longer..............hence we should all prep.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2024 at 9:22pm

Maybe "preparing" is meant to buy time...There may be limits to it..."if you do not have to kill your loved ones because of monsters" -just because you had the extra time it may be worth it...

I expect we may see lots of small/bad local crises...on top of that there may be mega-disasters...However we don'r know !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote A-I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2024 at 12:33pm

Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

I agree that we have to die of something, but I keep remembering the closing scene of some film I saw years ago. I can't remember what the film was or even what it was about, but there was some kind of monster that was killing everyone and in the closing scene, the family the film had been following were escaping in their car. They got engulfed in smoke or fog and could hear these awful sounds of these creatures all around them, so the parents looked at each other, and the father took out a gun and shot each of their children and then his wife, and just as he's about to shoot himself, the smoke clears and suddenly he sees the US army outside his car killing these things. If only he had held out 2 minutes more........

So I think about that and think we have to try to hold out just that bit longer..............hence we should all prep.

The film you reference was called "The Fog"  written by Stephen King. Correction it was called " The Mist "

There are entirely too many variables to account for given the uncertainty of what a SHTF scenario maybe consist of to ensure survival in the long term. That said doesn't hurt to have enough preps/contingency plans on hand to ride out short to medium term scenarios. Honestly it all comes down to luck, not saying preps aren't like 4 aces in a hand but luck is that last card that you draw in a hand that gives you a royal flush to win. And you play to win right down to the last card.

And as recent past history has shown the biggest threat after a SHTF scenario most likely will be people and how they react collectively and individually. So act accordingly.

Gonna be down in your neck of the woods next week, well Fiji anyway. Going island hopping for 3 weeks and doing some fishing. Crossing my fingers on some sunshine being included.



"Facts don't care about your feelings" I'M A UNVAXXED DEVIL so kiss my rebel ass.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2024 at 2:06pm

I think you have to consider how you want your days to go if you do not die or leave with the rapture, or get captured, etc.  I would want enough food and water for my family to at least not starve to death.  So I will will prep what I can to make sure we have the things we need for basic survival! Happy prepping friends!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2024 at 12:19pm

Originally posted by A-I A-I wrote:

The film you reference was called "The Fog"  written by Stephen King. Correction it was called " The Mist "


Gonna be down in your neck of the woods next week, well Fiji anyway. Going island hopping for 3 weeks and doing some fishing. Crossing my fingers on some sunshine being included.

Thanks A-I, I never want to see that film again! That or the The Road. Too scary for me. Ha Ha.

Have a great time in Fiji next week. It's been a hot summer here so far, in fact this morning I'm a bit dehydrated from rushing around in the heat yesterday. I hope the fishing is good.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2024 at 12:22pm

Originally posted by roni3470 roni3470 wrote:

I think you have to consider how you want your days to go if you do not die or leave with the rapture, or get captured, etc.  I would want enough food and water for my family to at least not starve to death.  So I will will prep what I can to make sure we have the things we need for basic survival! Happy prepping friends!

Yes that's how I feel too. I don't have the budget for gourmet prepping of MREs, so I'm more beans and rice. I'm quite sure if a major disaster hit, the vast majority would struggle as they have nothing put away. My plan is to keep our heads down and hold out till the short term panic has subsided.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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