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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Doesn’t anyone find it suspicious? - Event Date: February 09 2021 - March 31 2021

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Usk View Drop Down
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    Posted: February 10 2021 at 8:15am

I am finding that the CDC numbers reporting huge drops in cases within each state and country wide very suspicious. How could this virus just suddenly burn itself out!  We have not achieved herd immunity yet have we?  Your thoughts??

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Little House Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2021 at 9:05am

I have thought about this a lot.  I have a few theories...

1) The way cases are identified was changed.  So cases that would have been positive before Christmas are now negative.  So the cases haven’t really changed only the reporting. 

The problem with this theory is that the deaths seem to be following along with the cases.  (It hasn’t been quite long enough for the deaths to drop as they lag cases by a few weeks, but they seem to be following the pattern of cases on my graphs.)

2) We HAVE hit heard immunity.  Early on, there were studies that showed that for every case there were 10 cases that were not identified.  There was also that study out of India that showed that when the slums hit 60% of people infected, they hit heard immunity.  Put these two facts together and it does not seem unreasonable that cases started going down when an area was between 6% and 7%  of the population with a confirmed case.

The problem with this theory is that a later study showed that were only 3-4 unidentified cases for every confirmed case. 

3) Vaccines are making a difference.  In some areas, vaccines are being targeted at the most vulnerable people.  If those most likely to get sick and therefore get tested are the ones vaccinated, it could impact our overall numbers.

The problem with theory is that even in areas that are targeting vaccinations, less than 10% of the population has had one shot.  Is this really enough to make a difference?


Those are my thoughts, but I wish someone had a definitive answer to your question.  I want to know too.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2021 at 10:07am

I find it suspicious!  and also don't think we have hit herd immunity. Even if we have, the new variants have show re-infection capabilities.  With that said, it has been such a push to get schools open in Colorado that they have seemed to relax all the rules.  I hope I am wrong about this....but my inner circle has never been so affected so I find it odd that cases are dropping everywhere.  Back in November I knew about 5 people that had it or have had it, and now, i know about 30.  It's crazy.  I want to be optimistic but I am just not there yet!

NOW is the Season to Know

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2021 at 10:54am

In my area, we had a brief dip, and now cases are up again, double what they were a few weeks ago.  It ain't over yet.  Herd immunity?  Not even close!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2021 at 11:04am

Yes, I'm suspicious. According to this PLoS study about 10% of the population has been infected. It doesn't pass the sniff test.


PLoS One



. 2021 Feb 8;16(2):e0246772.

doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0246772. eCollection 2021.

Estimation of the fraction of COVID-19 infected people in U.S. states and countries worldwide



Jungsik Noh 1 Gaudenz Danuser 1




Affiliations

Free article


Abstract


Since the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, daily counts of confirmed cases and deaths have been publicly reported in real-time to control the virus spread. However, substantial undocumented infections have obscured the true size of the currently infected population, which is arguably the most critical number for public health policy decisions. We developed a machine learning framework to estimate time courses of actual new COVID-19 cases and current infections in all 50 U.S. states and the 50 most infected countries from reported test results and deaths. Using published epidemiological parameters, our algorithm optimized slowly varying daily ascertainment rates and a time course of currently infected cases each day. Severe under-ascertainment of COVID-19 cases was found to be universal across U.S. states and countries worldwide. In 25 out of the 50 countries, actual cumulative cases were estimated to be 5-20 times greater than the confirmed cases. Our estimates of cumulative incidence were in line with the existing seroprevalence rates in 46 U.S. states. Our framework projected for countries like Belgium, Brazil, and the U.S. that ~10% of the population has been infected once. In the U.S. states like Louisiana, Georgia, and Florida, more than 4% of the population was estimated to be currently infected, as of September 3, 2020, while in New York this fraction is 0.12%. The estimation of the actual fraction of currently infected people is crucial for any definition of public health policies, which up to this point may have been misguided by the reliance on confirmed cases.


"Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2021 at 11:10am

I don't know if in the scheme of things, if it really matters how many people have been infected.  The variants keep starting the game all over again. We're seeing alot of reinfections, presumably by the variants.  This may start to seem like The Neverending Story.

I don't find it suspicious though.  I think this virus is acting exactly how we would expect it to act.  The ability of the original virus to find new hosts is limited by social distancing, masking, people staying in, so now variants are arising, and they will infect whoever they can infect.  Perhaps a few of these variants will recombine.  This virus has any number of weapons to throw at us.  Do we have all that and one more tool to fight it?  Probably not...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2021 at 11:47am

In fact, without looking at each and every country, cases are dropping in essentially all countries.

"Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2021 at 1:39pm

Our numbers have not moved much because our government  listened to the science ......

Social distancing, masks ,closed venues.........

plus a commander  in chief  that's telling the truth......

All help drive the numbers down

Best motto

DON'T  COUNT  YOUR CHICKENS  BEFORE THEY HATCH.......


Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2021 at 3:22pm

Even here cases are falling now.  We are nowhere near herd immunity; if 10% have had it 90% have not!

Yes, the vaccine rollout is going nineteen to the dozen, but something else is happening here.  I wish I knew what.

I don't think it is politically whitewashed or affected by significant testing variations as it covers too many countries, there are nowhere near enough vaccinated yet to cause this drop and naturally acquired herd immunity is miles away.  I confess, I'm puzzled.  It is possible we are getting more used to social distancing and hygene applications, but that should be countered by 'covid-fatigue' and the new variants.

I can't help but wonder if something we simply have not thought of yet is taking place, like: 50% of the population is naturally immune, or the most infectious variant evades the test.  I just don't know.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2021 at 4:47pm

Hospitalizations in the U.S. are dropping, so VOCs aren't showing up there as of yet. It would be interesting to see how that is going in other regions.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2021 at 10:31am

As Josh noted, as of 10 January, cases are starting to rise again.  It ain't over.  I agree with Fauci -- eye of the hurricane.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2021 at 11:01am

Originally posted by ViQueen24 ViQueen24 wrote:

As Josh noted, as of 10 January, cases are starting to rise again.  It ain't over.  I agree with Fauci -- eye of the hurricane.


I looked in the thread and didn't see a comment regarding cases rising. Where is happening?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2021 at 11:32am
"Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2021 at 2:39pm

I've been saying it for months. This virus has been pumped up. Back in July last year we could see the numbers weren't making sense. This is when we started to suspect they were being exaggerated. The investigation led to the WHO over the top assessment standards. NOTE. this is a global standard. Hence why the numbers were high in many countries. 

The WHO required two reporting standards which pumped the numbers. The first was a PCR test with 40 cycles and the second was to take diagnosis out of the doctors hands. These two steps were controversial. 

The PCR test was considered too sensitive and therefore inaccurate. It produced many false positives. Up to 80% false. This method was vigorously debated in medical circles. The WHO took the opinion of better having a false positive than missing a positive case.

The diagnosis step, which has never been an accepted standard in medical history. Took the assessment out of doctors hands. So previously if someone was ill, a doctor would be the arbitor of the decision. In the Who standard everyone who tested positive was considered a case. 



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2021 at 3:00pm

Ok say you are correct,

Tell me what would be the point of 

closing down countries ,airlines ,collapse  of economies ,

Millions out of work,massive mental health issues......

Kids not getting an eduKation ,

All deliberately ?

What would be the point.......

Please enlighten me with your wisdom......

take care all 😷😉

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2021 at 4:58pm

I may be way off base here and considering I started this thread and those that know me in this forum I try not to cry wolf.  With those qualifiers something really bad is happening in the US. Where I live there is now a steep rise in children getting ill with a virus but they are not testing positive for COVID.  Childrens hospital also has an increase in pediatric deaths due to cytokines storms. Two of my nurse friends om the east coast are also reportedly seeing the same. I have no media proof of this just boots on the ground. Is this type B flu or a COVID  variant not picked up by testing?

Found this https://www.wccbcharlotte.com/2021/01/29/sc-reports-1st-death-from-inflammatory-pediatric-syndrome/

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2021 at 5:19pm

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/map-track-spread-covid-19-variants-across-united-states-n1256131

Some may find this map interesting Track the spread of the Covid-19 variants: the U.K. variantthe South African variant and the Brazilian variant. This map will be updated.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2021 at 5:54pm

Originally posted by Usk Usk wrote:

I may be way off base here and considering I started this thread and those that know me in this forum I try not to cry wolf.  With those qualifiers something really bad is happening in the US. Where I live there is now a steep rise in children getting ill with a virus but they are not testing positive for COVID.  Childrens hospital also has an increase in pediatric deaths due to cytokines storms. Two of my nurse friends om the east coast are also reportedly seeing the same. I have no media proof of this just boots on the ground. Is this type B flu or a COVID  variant not picked up by testing?

Found this https://www.wccbcharlotte.com/2021/01/29/sc-reports-1st-death-from-inflammatory-pediatric-syndrome/

Scary......

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2021 at 9:59pm

Sounds like [url]https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/mis-c-in-kids-covid-19/symptoms-causes/syc-20502550#:~:text=Multisystem%20inflammatory%20syndrome%20in%20children%20(MIS%2DC)%20is%20a,have%20only%20a%20mild%20illness.[/url] or https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/mis-c-in-kids-covid-19/symptoms-causes/syc-20502550#:~:text=Multisystem%20inflammatory%20syndrome%20in%20children%20(MIS%2DC)%20is%20a,have%20only%20a%20mild%20illness. ; Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is a serious condition that appears to be linked to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Most children who become infected with the COVID-19 virus have only a mild illness. But in children who go on to develop MIS-C, some organs and tissues — such as the heart, lungs, blood vessels, kidneys, digestive system, brain, skin or eyes — become severely inflamed. Signs and symptoms depend on which areas of the body are affected.

DJ-The picture I get from MIS-C is that it is a delayed overrreaction of the immune system. Maybe Multi Inflamatory Syndrom is a severe acute auto-immune disease ? There is a Covid-link but indirect-since antibodies have left the patient. MIS does not only show up in children. If it is indeed a sort of auto-immune disease women may get hit harder then men. Women represent around 90% of the auto-immune disease cases.

Variants may be increasing the risk for MIS-due to higher viral load. If there is no direct illness the delayed infection could result in MIS after up to a few months.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2021 at 4:43am

Maybe this is either a variant of covid 19 that is so different from the parent strains it evades the tests, or a syndrome actually caused by a form of long covid where the virus itself is long gone (and was asymptomatic originally) but the inflammatory damage continues and suddenly increases in children.

Either way, we (on AFT) always knew that covid would have some more nasty surprises in store for us.  Perhaps it just takes much longer to hurt most kids than it does adults.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2021 at 9:35am


Originally posted by AndyPOW AndyPOW wrote:

Originally posted by ViQueen24 ViQueen24 wrote:

As Josh noted, as of 10 January, cases are starting to rise again.  It ain't over.  I agree with Fauci -- eye of the hurricane.


I looked in the thread and didn't see a comment regarding cases rising. Where is happening?

Look in "Scenarios", February 11, 1:28 AM:

"DJ,


Herd-immunity...it is the goal of vaccination to get herd-immunity (via vaccination) at least within a country. Do I think we will get global herd immunity-no. Do we get local herd immunity-maybe-Israel may get there if they manage to keep borders closed, variants out (or contained). 


When I look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (for january 10) I notice numbers-worldwide-are increasing again. Most countries still do have strong NPI, lockdown, masks, social distancing etc. often for weeks. That did bring the number of new cases down-for a time..."


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2021 at 9:42am

Yes, Techno, viruses can always lodge in your body to make trouble later.  We've seen that with Polio and Spanish Influenza.  Novel viruses seem to cause the most trouble, obviously.  I think this virus is acting totally how one would expect.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2021 at 1:58pm

I have some news of interest and I think this the best place for it. My cousin is a surgeon here in Virginia   He got  vaccinated in early Dec and 2nd shot end of Dec.  he started to feel unwell monday  he was diagnosed with Covid today!!!  He has mild respiratory issues enough to have him on home oxygen   We are all hoping he does not get worse   They sent out blood work to see what strain. He got Phizervaccine

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2021 at 2:03pm

I am in Virginia too. It will be interesting to see what strain he may have.  Hopefully the vaccine will keep his case from getting worse.

'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2021 at 2:25pm

Originally posted by ViQueen24 ViQueen24 wrote:

Yes, Techno, viruses can always lodge in your body to make trouble later.  We've seen that with Polio and Spanish Influenza.  Novel viruses seem to cause the most trouble, obviously.  I think this virus is acting totally how one would expect.

Ever had shingles......

I have very very painful......

Shingles is caused by the chicken pox virus ,stays dormant for years......,sorry if I'm teaching egg sucking.....lol

Take care all 😷😉


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2021 at 4:05pm

Had shingles too.  Don't want that again!

I know someone with late-effect polio.  That is not nice either.

Hubby has been treated for cancer*, that was probably from two viruses in the past,  one of those was only mononeucleosis!


MANY viruses come back nastier.  I can't think of a good reason covid should be any different.





*Has had all clear.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2021 at 8:52am

Usk, please keep us apprised!  Doesn't sound good...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2021 at 7:02pm

Will do. Test should be back Wednesday 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 14 2021 at 5:36am

I had shingles in my eye recently. It was horrendous.


By the way Covid was very well timed for the Chinese government to crack down on Hong Kong Dissidents. Hong Kong Riots ended as soon as the public could be forced off the streets. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2021 at 8:33pm

Sorry not to get back til now. The test came back as Sourh Africa variant. C still easily fatigue 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2021 at 2:34pm

There is a little good news Usk.  Although the vaccine is not specific for the SA variant and does not prevent disease in as many cases, it still lessens the severity of most cases.

Fingers crossed for your relative.  Please keep up the info.

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