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Dozens of deaths in NW Europe-floods

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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    Posted: July 15 2021 at 5:06am

[url]https://www.dw.com/en/at-least-20-dead-after-floods-in-germany-several-missing-live-updates/a-58270820[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/at-least-20-dead-after-floods-in-germany-several-missing-live-updates/a-58270820 ;

At least 20 people have died in parts of western Germany amid heavy rains and flooding, local police said on Thursday. Most of the deaths have been reported in the states of North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate.

Four people died and 70 were missing around the wine-growing region of Ahrweiler, in Germany's western Rhineland-Palatinate state, police said, after the Ahr river that flows into the Rhine burst its banks and brought down half a dozen houses.

Several also went missing after six houses collapsed in the same state, following hours of torrential rain. About 25 more buildings in the Schuld region were at the risk of caving in, local police said.

[url]https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/177556/belgium-in-brief-rain-rain-rain/[/url] or https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/177556/belgium-in-brief-rain-rain-rain/ 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/07/15/maas-river-set-new-record-water-level-flooding-continues-highways-closed[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/07/15/maas-river-set-new-record-water-level-flooding-continues-highways-closed 

[url]https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210715-torrential-rainfall-in-germany-leaves-several-dead-dozens-missing[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210715-torrential-rainfall-in-germany-leaves-several-dead-dozens-missing 

DJ-By now it could be in the hundreds of people killed in unseen flooding. Most of the deaths in Germany. At least 6 deaths in eastern Belgium, one death in Luxemburg...

Flooding could move towards towards NL...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 15 2021 at 5:56am

BBC is ow reporting 33 deaths....https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57846200


ps. we could do with some of that rain here.!   My garden is dying, and I will probably have to harvest some items (potatoes and onions) early to save on the need for watering.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 15 2021 at 11:46pm

DJ-The rains in this part of NW Europe were expected in the 2050's in "climate models". Again proving experts/science should relate better their models with reality ! Both in climate collapse and this pandemic experts/scientists fail ! With all their knowledge to do a BAD job !!! They advise governments in their actions and so far-both in climate collapse and this pandemic-made matters worse-not better !!!

[url]https://www.dw.com/en/death-toll-climbs-in-western-germany-flooding-live-updates/a-58284256[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/death-toll-climbs-in-western-germany-flooding-live-updates/a-58284256

German state broadcaster ARD reported that at least 81 people have died in the flooding in North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate

There were still more than 1,300 people unaccounted for in the Ahrweiler region, possibly due to mobile networks being down.

DJ-Belgium reporting 11 deaths, 4 missing, Luxemburg at least 1 death. The total numbers may see (far) over a 100 deaths-some will never be found. 

Here in NL we had some evacuations in the South East of the country-and a lot of damage but so far no lives lost. 

We did see smaller extreme rain events in the past, also extreme temperatures (43C+ north of Arnhem where I live in 2019) not fitting in "models" so ignored; "impossible"...

Reality is more complex then models...in climate and pandemics...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2021 at 3:44pm

I really don't understand why people are "SURPRISED"

By theses ever increasing  once in a "100"years events !!!!

I work with people who laughed at me everytime I mentioned a "pandemic" not laughing now...!!!!

Theses same peeps...

Look at me sideways when I mention climate change....!!!!


They would rather believe their "preachers" 

Than science........


So be it ,

but don't go round wailing and hand wringing.....

Pretending you all haven't been warned.....!!!!!

Buckle up....in ain't gonna get any better......

Take care all 😷😉

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2021 at 4:03pm

The Associated Press: UN chief: World faces a `hurricane of humanitarian crises'.

https://apnews.com/445c34b35b00fbb4381b8080025b57d2

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2021 at 9:36pm

[url]https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/177785/tbtb-severe-weather-water-level-in-maaseik-stabilises-dyke-breach-just-across-dutch-border/[/url] or https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/177785/tbtb-severe-weather-water-level-in-maaseik-stabilises-dyke-breach-just-across-dutch-border/  DJ-Belgium-23 deaths, 20 missing

[url]https://www.dw.com/en/death-toll-climbs-in-western-germany-flooding-live-updates/a-58284256[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/death-toll-climbs-in-western-germany-flooding-live-updates/a-58284256  DJ-Germany 103 deaths , 1.300+ missing.

In Germany overflowing river water south of cologne did go high speed into a gravel pit causing a landslide. A small vilage in part was destroyed by that event. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_flood_of_1953[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_flood_of_1953 The 1953 storm did kill over 2,500. This extreme rain event will be more limited. 

A few remarks;

-It is not totally clear what caused the amount of damage. Earlier larger amount of rains proberbly saturated the ground, smaller rivers-so extreme rain on top of that had nowhere to go=flooding.

-People not following orders to evacuate, or returning to early, may be a limited part of the story;

-Most of the people were surprised by the extreme fast rising of waterlevels...

-Since it is in a very hilly area-smaller vilages often at lower points near the river-flooding came very fast, very strong.

-As often in such scenario's-people trying to get away by car did get caught by the waters or landslides...

-Poweroutage meant no communications/warnings...

DJ-It is NOT over yet. Water from tributary rivers/streams now flow into the more major waterflows. Since those major rivers are allready at high level new floods could show up. It is supposed to be summer-so a lot of work on dams and dykes are done when the river is supposed to be at low level...

Further north/west in winter the mean rivers sometimes see larger amounts of water. So risks will decrease in the coming days. 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/07/16/10000-told-leave-venlo-maas-river-level-swells[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/07/16/10000-told-leave-venlo-maas-river-level-swells 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Room_for_the_River_(Netherlands)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Room_for_the_River_(Netherlands) A lot of work has been done last decades to reduce risks of flooding. More work is needed-may be speeded up...

On top of that some new discussion/study may be needed;

-On the longer term-2050/2100-where in low lying area's we can keep it safe enough for people to live ? 

-Since sealevelrise may go (much) faster-(building in the east of NL also is cheaper)-what part of building new houses, etc. should be done in more at risk area's ? Should we relocate Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Gouda...etc ? Or do we go for even more dykes where ? 

Climate change was part of the flooding-story. We need to do that much more....but for extreme weather safety we also need better predictions, better strategies...

Here in NL rivers now are on unseen high level for summer. In the river debris, trees...maybe some dead animals, bodies...There are limited evacuations. In january 1995 high waterlevels did see over 250,000 people being evacuated for several days. Evacuations are much smaller and shorter-but damage is much more severe...

It will stay dry in most/all of the hard hit area's the coming days. A lot of people-now missing- may have survived...But it is a wake up call !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 20 2021 at 9:00am

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_European_floods[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_European_floods

Since 12 July 2021, several European countries have been affected by catastrophic floods, causing deaths and widespread damage. The floods have affected several river basins, first in the United Kingdom and later across northern and central Europe including AustriaBelgiumCroatiaGermanyLuxembourg, the NetherlandsSwitzerland and Italy.[10] At least 204 people have died in the floods, including 166 in Germany,[1][2] 36 in Belgium,[3] 1 in Italy[4] and 1 in Austria.[5]

The Belgian Minister of the Interior Annelies Verlinden described the events as "one of the greatest natural disasters our country has ever known" and minister-president Malu Dreyer of the Rhineland-Palatinate state in Germany called it "devastating". In addition to the confirmed fatalities, the flooding led to widespread power outages, forced evacuations and damage to infrastructure and agriculture in the affected areas. The damage to infrastructure was especially severe in Germany.[11] During the aftermath of the floods, scientists, activists and reporters all highlighted the connection to global trends in extreme weather, especially more frequent heavy rainfall caused by climate change.

DJ Cleaning up is the next step. [url]https://www.dw.com/en/germany-floods-angela-merkel-visits-hard-hit-north-rhine-westphalia/a-58325912[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/germany-floods-angela-merkel-visits-hard-hit-north-rhine-westphalia/a-58325912 In Germany, Belgium still a few hundred people are missing. 

The more difficult part now is to decide if people can return to some high risk villages. Some of those-often old-small towns may be considered to high risk for flooding. In other places lots of investments could make it more safe.

Families may have been living in some of these places for generations. Houses were part of a family-tradition/ownership. So some of the decissions will be painfull allthough life saving.

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 20 2021 at 3:34pm

We were watching the footage of the floods last night and the devastation is incredible. The debris left behind was meters deep. I don't even know where they would begin trying to clear that up. Landscapes have actually been altered. Those poor people.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 20 2021 at 8:43pm

People in that region now have to live with fear every time there are rains coming. We may see some rain saturday and further...If those rains could be unpredictable for amount or location (as they often are) people will flee if not evacuated...

That the places they lived in had some higher risk was known. But they did not expect this amount of rain-spreading in the way it did over the area. 

It was a multi-day event-starting with "normal levels" of rain-then on top of that heavy rain in a hilly/mountain area (More or less Ardennes, Eifel). Those heavy rains also did not move...so allready overburdened grounds had to deal with a major influx - the only way to go for the water was "up" and that started the high speed flooding...

People had no idea water would be 3-4 meters high in a few minutes. Still a few hundred people are missing. 

I can imagine the search teams may try to take a look at the bottom of the rivers to see if there are cars stuck with people in it...

Maybe the worst part of it all-it can happen again soon...

Here in NL there has been a lot of damage in a few places in the extreme south. For the rest unusual high water for summer. A lot of extra stress-in the south-east. A little bit more north and west "room for the river" meant just high water with lots of debris...

Some farmers did loose their harvest in the outer banks-not supposed to be under water in summer...Still in NL total damage +1 billion €-in Germany and Belgium it may run up in the hundreds of billions...Investing in water/river safety is paying off. A brutal lesson !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 21 2021 at 12:20am

I think we'll see more and more of these extreme weather events.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 21 2021 at 1:50am

Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

I think we'll see more and more of these extreme weather events.

Yep.....

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 21 2021 at 2:10am

I had a bungalow on a flood plain once.  I loved living there.  It was a beautiful place and suited me to a tee.  Every time it rained I held my breath.  Once the flood water made it to within 100yds of my door;  I only lived there a year.  I never wanted to leave, but saw the necessity.  

Now I live up a hill, with a multiple row of trees to hold back any mud slippage and life is harder, but I sleep nights even when it is raining.

It saddned me to leave my pretty bungalow, but how much worse would it be to see it swept away, maybe with a lost cat or even relative - HORROR!

How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 23 2021 at 1:45am

-latest numbers; Belgium 37 deaths, 6 still missing. Germany 175 deaths 150 (+!!!!) still missing. [url]https://www.facebook.com/NoodweerBenelux[/url] or https://www.facebook.com/NoodweerBenelux (Dutch) is warning for more rains-30/50 mm this weekend for the already hard hit area's in Belgium and Germany. 

Specialy for Germany/Rhine system is rains in Switzerland or France can bring high waterlevels a few days later more north in the Rhine system...so even limited rains plus high water from severe rain south does cause problems.

[url]https://www.dw.com/en/germany-floods-politicians-and-the-balancing-act-amid-crisis/a-58596868[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/germany-floods-politicians-and-the-balancing-act-amid-crisis/a-58596868 The floods will also effect the German september elections. 

[url]https://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/typhoon-in-fa-china-japan-olympic-games-mk/[/url] or https://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/typhoon-in-fa-china-japan-olympic-games-mk/ ; The Typhoon In-Fa has rapidly intensified into a Category 3 tropical cyclone, and peaked on Thursday. It now heads for a destructive impact on the Miyako and Ishigaki Islands, Japan. Then, it continues towards potentially catastrophic flooding impact in China on Sunday, including the city of Shanghai. But there is already a new tropical wave that could significantly impact the weather during the ongoing Olympic Games 2021 in Tokyo on Monday.

DJ-Both climate crisis and this pandemic demand crisis management, good communications...both are treated as a business opportunity...if we do not change that things will only get worse ! 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 23 2021 at 1:27pm

[url]https://www.estofex.org/[/url] or https://www.estofex.org/ ;

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 24 Jul 2021 06:00 to Sun 25 Jul 2021 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 23 Jul 2021 14:46
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 2 was issued for Switzerland to S Germany into Austria and extreme N-Italy mainly for large/damaging hail, severe wind gusts and heavy rain.

A level 2 was issued for parts of Belgium/Luxembourg into extreme W Germany mainly for excessive rain.

A level 1 surrounds both level 2 areas and includes also an isolated tornado threat.

A level 1 was issued for S-UK mainly for heavy rain.

-

A growing concern for a more organized threat arises from Belgium to Luxembourg into far W-Germany, where latest data gives a non-zero chance for a weak surface low to evolve, which enhances forcing. A resulting growing cluster of storms could become an issue for excessive rainfall amounts. Persistent signals in some EPS fields and TPWs well above 30 mm convinced me to upgrade for a level 2 mainly for excessive rain. In addition, a few funnel/short-lived tornado reports are possible along the LL confluence axis with maximized LLCAPE.

DJ-See also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_European_floods[/url] ;

With at least 177 deaths,[1] the floods are the deadliest natural disaster in Germany since the North Sea flood of 1962.[37][38][39] As of 16 July 2021, at least 1,300 people were still missing,[40] but mostly due to mobile networks being down in some regions which made it difficult to call people.[41] It was considered unlikely that the number of deaths would rise that high,[42] and while on 19 July the exact number of missing persons remained unclear, search was ongoing for at least 150 people.[43] Some 15,000 policesoldiers and emergency service workers have been deployed in Germany to help with the search and rescue.[44]

During the floods, 128 people died in Rhineland-Palatinate (all of whom were in the district of Ahrweiler),[1] 47 in North Rhine-Westphalia (twenty-seven of whom in Euskirchen),[1] and two in Bavaria.[1] Four firefighters are among the dead.[45][46] Westnetz, Germany's biggest power distribution grid, stated on 15 July that 200,000 properties in the North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate regions were without power,[47] and that it would be impossible to repair substations until roads were cleared.[48] On 16 July, around 102,000 people were still without power.[49] The German Weather Service reported that the quantity of rain in some areas of Germany was the highest in over 100 years, possibly higher than any seen in the last 1,000 years.[50][11] They reported that some areas had received a month's average rainfall in one day

I will update tomorrow

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2021 at 2:06am

[url]https://meteoalarm.org/en/[/url] or https://meteoalarm.org/en/ for parts of western and southern Germany code red; 

The weather is very dangerous. Exceptionally intense meteorological phenomena have been forecast. Major damage and accidents are likely, in many cases with threat to life and limb, over a wide area. Keep frequently informed about detailed expected meteorological conditions and risks. Follow orders and any advice given by your authorities under all circumstances, be prepared for extraordinary measures.

Belgium/Luxemburg code orange...but weather news like sites warning for large amounts of rain possible during thunderstorms later today. 

Major problems ;

-Sewage, canals often still blocked by debris

-Riversbanks unstabil from the floods just a week ago

-Communication, roads not restored in many places

-Lots of buildings already have had major damage

-Uncertainty on where extreme weather could show up-unpredictable

We may see evacuations/people leaving this part of NW Europe for the duration of the bad weather-likely 4 days.

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2021 at 3:43am

Yesterday's news was flooding in China, today's is flooding in India https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57938839


An older symbolism attached to the rainbow   is that the earth will not be destroyed in a flood   - a very appropriate symbol at this time,

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2021 at 1:06pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 25 2021 at 2:38am

[url]https://www.estofex.org/[/url] or https://www.estofex.org/A level 3 is issued for far-south Germany into N Austria for large hail and severe convective wind gusts.

A level 1 and level 2 are issued for Switzerland, SE Germany, the Czech Republic, Austria and N Italy for large hail, severe convective wind gusts and excessive convective precipitation.

A level 1 is issued for the rest of Germany mainly for excessive convective precipitation and to a lesser extent for large hail.

A level 1 is issued for SE England, N France, BeNeLux and Denmark mainly for excessive convective precipitation.

A level 1 is issued for E Spain mainly for large hail.

A level 1 is issued for SW Turkey mainly for large hail.

DJ; [url]https://twitter.com/MeteoExpress[/url] or https://twitter.com/MeteoExpress (French) more info on the flooding yesterday in Belgium (Dinant, Namur/Namen). 

[url]https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/178855/heavy-rain-causes-chaos-across-the-land-with-more-to-come/[/url] or https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/178855/heavy-rain-causes-chaos-across-the-land-with-more-to-come/ ;

In Namur province, Dinant suffered perhaps the worst flooding, although there are present no reports of casualties, according to mayor Axel Tixhon (cdH). Four people had to be evacuated from their homes and found shelter elsewhere. Streets were flooded and cars carried away. Many houses suffered light to severe flooding.

“It was brief but very violent,” said Tixhon.

One witness described the scene to Het Laatste Nieuws. The man is a resident of Dinant and had been shopping in the centre. When I came home the water was already running several centimetres deep down the hill,” he said.

This is a steep street that ends at the Meuse, so that happens often. But less than five minutes later I saw the water rise fifty centimetres in our street. It was then that I noticed a dozen cars being dragged down by the current. The power of that water was enormous. I barely managed to get inside.”

DJ In hilly area's more intense rains can cause "streets turning into rivers"-with water going high speed to the lowest point. If that extreme rain is just a 5-minutes story damage often is limited. 

[url]https://www.dw.com/en/is-climate-change-fueling-floods-in-germany/a-58282637[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/is-climate-change-fueling-floods-in-germany/a-58282637 

When disasters happen far away it does not "shock" people, it may shock them if it happens next door...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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