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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Dr. Fukuda from WHO meeting

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TheBeginning View Drop Down
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    Posted: March 10 2006 at 12:23pm

WHO to train experts in human bird flu containment

10 Mar 2006 15:51:55 GMT
Source: Reuters

By Stephanie Nebehay

GENEVA, March 10 (Reuters) - The World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Friday it would train a team of 100 experts in how contain an outbreak of the bird flu virus if it starts spreading easily between humans.

The United Nations agency has sent several dozen experts in the past two years to help Asian and Middle East countries treat H5N1 infections in people and shore up their defences.

But the idea now is to give special training to a group of epidemiologists, laboratory and logistics experts worldwide in how to try to contain a highly contagious virus strain which could emerge -- before it sparks a deadly influenza pandemic.

"We will develop a roster of people who have received a great deal of training on containment procedures," Keiji Fukuda, acting director of the WHO's global influenza programme, told a news briefing.

"We will initially try to train 100 people with a variety of skills," the American scientist added.

Bird flu has killed at least 96 people in Asia and the Middle East since late 2003. Scientists fear the virus, which has spread among birds in the last months to Europe and Africa, could mutate and spread easily from person to person, triggering a pandemic that could kill millions and cripple economies.

Fukuda was speaking after the WHO hosted three-day talks earlier this week among some 70 experts to sharpen the WHO's "rapid response and containment strategy".

Measures would include imposing quarantines and treating infected people and their contacts with Swiss firm Roche's <ROG.VX> antiviral Tamiflu -- all in a bid to halt transmission or at least slow the spread.

DIFFICULT ETHICAL ISSUES

But the measures themselves raise difficult ethical issues, some of which remain unresolved, according to Fukuda.

"We made a great deal of progress on discussing some of these issues but it is quite complicated ... The whole idea of quarantine and containment is probably the biggest unresolved issue," he said.

"If, for example, you draw a big circle and say this is a quarantine zone, then issues come up. Do you keep people inside, do you keep people from the outside from moving in there, what kind of restrictions are there, what are the ethical considerations?" he said.

Solutions will vary on whether the pandemic strain emerges in a rural setting or large city, and there is "no single generic plan", according to Fukuda.

Roche has donated 3 million treatment courses of Tamiflu -- earmarked for use in the WHO's containment strategy -- and has pledged another 2 million courses by September.

"It is clear that if we try to contain a pandemic -- and this has never been attempted before, there is no precedent -- that there is a very good chance that we will fail, that we will not be able to stop it," Fukuda said.

"However, there is also a very good chance that if we mount this kind of effort we may slow down the spread of a pandemic virus early on. If we do that, if we buy some substantial amount of time and that means weeks, then we can really increase the chances for having more vaccine available more rapidly."

Each day gained following the detection of a pandemic virus would allow production of around 5 million doses of a pandemic vaccine -- which does not exist yet -- the WHO says.

Experts estimate it would take four to six months to develop a vaccine once a pandemic virus is identified.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote endman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2006 at 12:40pm

Is this the SIGN that they don’t believe that BF virus is not just going away.
100 people not much I think they mean a 1000 people. But we need to keep the numbers low God forbid that we may create a panic in people. 
People were lagging at me for scheduling a BF prevention meeting
The general perception is that If I don’t see people falling sick all over the place I am safe

Fun links to look athttp://exodus2006.com/3code.htm

http://www.apocalypsesoon.org/english.html

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2006 at 12:40pm

I wonder if these guys will go to HALO school (High Altitude Low Opening) so they can jump into the hot zone from 40,000 feet.  I picture 100 WHOs with H5N1 shoulder tabs.   They will probably get tattoos of chickens with scrolls underneath that say "Flu before Dishonor."

The WHO rapid deployment force - we can be anywhere in six months, and provide our version of the truth six months later.

They honestly have a good idea if they will get away from the paperwork and make things happen.

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TheBeginning Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2006 at 1:25pm

What jumped out at me on this article is the fact that he openly admits they don't have any idea of how to actually do a quarantine, don't know whether or not it will even work, and that it'll probably fail.   That tells me that even they think their stategy won't work.  If I were in charge, here's what I do....

I'd use the U.S. Post office to make people aware of the coming pandemic and tell people what to store.  Not everybody would do it but many would.  That would cause some initial panic but would cut down on the looting and bigger panic later on.   It might initially cause a few shortages in stores but since the trucks would still be running for awhile, they'd still have lots of time to restock before it hits.  I think a government flyer in the mailbox might  seem more official that a TV spot or official website.  Since I'm getting way out here in hypothetical land, I'd also send N95 masks, protective gloves, goggles and Tamiflu to everyone in the United States.  If they can get our tax forms to us,  they ought to be able to do that using the same database.  The postal system is already in place.  We should use it for something other than distributing tanning salon fliers and phone bills.  But where would the money for all that come from?  Maybe, our congress could quit throwing away billions of dollars every year on nothing or cut back on the billions we give away to countries who hate our guts just long enough to temporarily fund this project and actually spend some of the tax money we all pay in on something we really need for a change.  They'd never do that, but theoretically it could be done.  Israel's done it.  I've heard every man, woman, and child in that country has a government-issued gas mask and AtroPen.  If a significant number of people actually prepared to quarantine for this, that would mean the ones who didn't or couldn't would have a fighting chance at getting some relief supplies and health care when it hits because the burden on hospitals and  relief workers would be significantly diminished.  Okay, I haven't thought this completely through and I'm sure most of you have better ideas, but the point is this can all be planned for much better than it will be.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oknut Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2006 at 1:35pm

Great plan

Are you running in 2008?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TheBeginning Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2006 at 1:39pm
LOL...NO, NO, NO, NO, NO !!!!!  I'm basically honest.  I could never be a politician.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Thomas Angel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2006 at 1:57pm
Originally posted by TheBeginning TheBeginning wrote:

WHO to train experts in human bird flu containment

10 Mar 2006 15:51:55 GMT
Source: Reuters

By Stephanie Nebehay

GENEVA, March 10 (Reuters) - The World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Friday it would train a team of 100 experts in how contain an outbreak of the bird flu virus if it starts spreading easily between humans.

Their stupidity amazes me to the point where I am nearly speechless.

100 experts?  Trained to contain an outbreak of the bird flu virus if it starts spreading easily between humans?

Just give us all a break!  Nice move on the part of WHO to wait to train these "experts"in the event that it's starts spreading easily.

I LIKE SCARY RIDES
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AuntBones Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2006 at 1:58pm
TheBeginning    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote virusil Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2006 at 2:12pm
what  we need is at least 5000-10000 person,a hundred is a joke,but personnalyi get used to their jokes,and they are not funny believe me.
ignorance.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Corn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2006 at 6:29pm
good one bama steve.
Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote stardust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2006 at 6:19am

TheBeginning, I totally agree with your plan. So what if people panic now.

I am the government as well as everyone else here and I would like to see the dollars that I bust my butt to pay taxes go for better planning on this issue.

I want to say to the government leaders "you know what, don't worry about my feelings and if I can or cannot handle the truth"? What will be worse is the consequences after.

"Prepping is Power"!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote meewee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2006 at 7:04am

I say we nominate The Beginning for President

Meewee

God Bless us all!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oknut Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2006 at 7:14am
I'll second that nomination -
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TheBeginning Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2006 at 7:50am
Hey,  you guys are making me suddenly feel very smart!   I'm really not that smart though.  Just plain old common sense that we're not allowed to use anymore because it might not be politically correct. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pebbles Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2006 at 7:50am

3rd nomination here!  The Beginning, love your name and what a concept that you could be an honest President!Clap

Blackbird singing in the dead of the night. Take these broken wings and learn to fly. All my life. You were only waiting for this moment to arise.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2006 at 8:34am
Canr imagine 100 scientists ever agreeing let alone 5000-10000 of them.

WHO special forces. Love the insignia idea. Anyone want toi try a motto:

'He Who dares perishes'? (UK:He who dares wins - SAS)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2006 at 9:55am
Perhaps the article was trying to say they are training 100 teachers to train the 10,000? Just my thought.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2006 at 10:11am
I LOVE the idea of using the postal system. Now, how about we start an e-mail campaign to get this idea in front of our representatives?? You know, they all like to appear smart, maybe one of them will actually get serious behind it?!
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