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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Ending lockdowns,1918 Spanish flu.....

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carbon20 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Ending lockdowns,1918 Spanish flu.....
    Posted: March 24 2021 at 3:08am
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 24 2021 at 3:26am

 Thank you, Carbon!!  That was a great bit of history.

Proves my point exactly!  

You can't take the parachute off until you are safely on the ground. 

(Ie. Don't come out of lockdown until Covid is GONE - NOT SUPPRESSED, GONE.)




Not that anyone will listen, anyway.

Believers don't need proof and sceptics won't accept proof.
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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 24 2021 at 6:25am

Thanks - that was a good (scary) article.

As the saying goes...."Those who do not learn from history are bound to make the same mistakes."

But there is another saying..."What history teaches us is that people don't learn from history."  (sorry Josh, I know you are into history)

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 24 2021 at 2:05pm

EdwinSm-History is no exact science...on most subjects historians disagree. Even chosing a subject is subjective...

I think comparing the Spanish Flu with Covid19 "has its limits" since this "is not the flu"...Also the "Spanish Flu" in Europe was a different story then the one in the US. In my opinion transports of troops most likely was the main factor in the Spanish Flu, military parades, censorship on the epidemic due to war...

To be honest...I do not think it is a very good story...a bit of falsification of history. Trying to link the present covid-fatigue with the 1918 pandemic via "creative writing"...

Most people had very limited travel capacity in those days-a major difference with 2020. Blaming the Spanish Flu on "pandemic fatigue" I think is non-sense....(with all respect to carbon20).

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 24 2021 at 4:17pm

I think the article is comparing people reactions ,not  covid vs S.flu.....

Both are/were pandemics ,

And there will be future pandemics.......

Most people had never heard of a pandemic before this ,and I and many on here experienced in the past laughter when I spoke about it ,trying to warn people to be prepared.....

Not laughing now......

You know living here going to airport many times to pick people up who coming to visit,I used to crap myself getting hugs off loved ones who had just jumped off an international flight.....

Take care all 😷😉


Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 24 2021 at 10:18pm

When you look at statistics of deaths from infectious diseases for say 1880 till 2020 the number of deaths till 1900 is (far) above the number of even the 1918/19 Spanish Flu...(Dr.J.C. had a nice chart...I googled for some statistics could not find one..) 

Putting a 2021 story in a story of a 1919 healthcrisis can get misleading. It is correct to claim international air travel was not stopped in 1919...the air travel that was there was limited-often military. From the UK to France-not (yet) long distance. (It is also correct to claim nobody took vaccines against the flu...But there were some vaccines in an early stage-maybe even making things worse..)

World War 1 ended november 1918-some even link it to the pandemic. Transport of millions of soldiers on packed trains and ships to barracks that were overcrowded-first to the front lines then back to the UK, US, etc. I think was one "motor" of the Spanish Flu. Maybe you can even link the three waves with mass transports...

Another factor was a lack of knowledge on how infectious diseases worked. Virusses were as good as unknown in that time-the "theory that would lead to the discovery of virusses" was been used in vaccines...but bio-science was very limited.

Last year there was some discussion on the 1890 Russian Flu...could it have been a corona virus ? Given the symptoms were more similar with wath we did see in 2020 SARS-2. But in 1890 variants did not show up making a corona virus pandemic that different from a flu pandemic. It can be both number of infections and transport were limited enough-and we were lucky-maybe timing also a factor-that if the 1890 pandemic was a corona virus we did not see (much) variants (of risk) back then...The 1890 Russian Flu was linked to Russian railways as a transport route...

To have a pandemic you need an infectious disease, enough hosts and transport to get the disease into the hosts...

When I was looking for historic statistics I found this [url]https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2004361[/url] or https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2004361 internet is a never ending source of information...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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