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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

escape levels

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: escape levels
    Posted: October 14 2022 at 2:08am

DJ-New CoViD variants have mutations enabling immunity escape. The higher the level the more escape from immunity...the less earlier infection/vaccines may do their job (again I am trying to follow these pandemics...CoViD still the main one...I am NOT an expert...);

Roughly the following variants are included: >=7: None (yet) >=6: XBB >=5: BQ.1.1, BN.1, BM.1.1.1, CA.1 + all of above >=4: BA.2.75.2, BQ.1, BM.1.1, BY.1, BA.2.3.20 + all above >=3: BA.4.6, BF.7, any BA.4/5+S:346T/S:444 etc + all of the above

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I've created a  collection that catches all variants with a varying number of key RBD mutations. The more mutations, the more escape is expected. This manifests in increasing growth rates. Here are plots for Europe: https://cov-spectrum.org/collections/54

DJ [url]https://cov-spectrum.org/collections/54[/url] or https://cov-spectrum.org/collections/54 


I somewhat arbitrarily chose the following as key RBD mutations: S:346T, S:356T, S:444, S:445, S:450, S:446, S:452, S:460K, S:486, S:490, S:494P One could broaden by not forcing 346T etc but allowing any mutation at that position etc, but the results will be quite similar.

Again...I try to understand the basics of this...








⚠️Scoop—MOTHER OF GOD—Just got this leak from CDC-insider source—it seems #COVID variants worse than CDC has been admitting. The new highly evasive #BQ1 & #BQ11 sub variants are surging over 11%—but CDC has not shared it yet! Here is what will be posted soon (left) 🆚 current. 

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2) I cannot describe just how mad I am at this disaster. #BQ1 and #BQ11 are two of the most evasive variants known to date. And CDC seems to have been holding onto this data? Can it be true? Why did this data have to leak to me from insider sources? It’s so bad.

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3) So, HOW BAD IS IT??? People don’t get what I mean by among the “most evasive” — the #BQ1 (Typhon) and #BQ11 (Cerberus) are basically dubbed “escape variants” because they escape from immunity!! 👀 

DJ [url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1580752926535872513[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1580752926535872513 CoViD is getting "ugly"...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Joined: May 01 2013
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2022 at 2:27am

To continue...

6) Million dollar question — so does the bivalent #Ba5 booster shot work against #Q1 and #BQ11? I *think* so… BQ are subtypes of the BA5 branch family. And in neutralization studies of BA5 infection (akin to ~BA5 booster) by , BQ sub variants still neutralized well.

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7) But #BQ1 & #BQ11 are totally resistant to major MONOCLONAL ANTIBODY DRUGS— they effectively “escapes Evusheld and Bebtelovimab” says  in his study. Basically MAB drugs are useless now against these two new BQ variants. https://biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.09.15.507787v3

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8) So where does this sudden BQ1 and BQ11 mess put us? Our models predict a variety of 5+ key mutation sub variants will cause a surge of #covid by mid to late November just in time for Thanksgiving, especially if we don’t BA5 bivalent boost. Again, BQ* are subtypes of BA5.

DJ [url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.09.15.507787v3[/url] or https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.09.15.507787v3 ;

Moreover, we demonstrated that as few as five additional convergent mutations based on BA.5 or BA.2.75 could completely evade most plasma samples, including those from BA.5 breakthrough infection, while retaining sufficient hACE2-binding affinity. These results suggest that current herd immunity and BA.5 vaccine boosters may not provide sufficiently broad protection against infection. Broad-spectrum SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and NAb drugs development should be of high priority, and the constructed convergent mutants could serve to examine their effectiveness in advance.

So back to more NPI...masks, social distancing...Vaccines did NOT protect against catching/spreading variants however so far in most cases may have limited (chronic) disease...

DJ-As a non-expert the mix of new CoViD variants with also a very high level of (bird)flu does sound alarming...

link [url]https://fortune.com/well/2022/09/24/new-covid-omicron-variants-subvariants-evade-monoclonal-antibodies-bebtelovimab-recombinants-convergent-evolution-sars-immune-evasion/[/url] or https://fortune.com/well/2022/09/24/new-covid-omicron-variants-subvariants-evade-monoclonal-antibodies-bebtelovimab-recombinants-convergent-evolution-sars-immune-evasion/ ;

One Rajnarayanan and others are watching: XBB, a combination of two different Omicron spawns. It’s not currently a concern in terms of spread, but “it’s probably the most immune evasive yet”—even more so than the rising BA.2.75.2, which is more immune evasive than globally dominant BA.5, the most immune evasive until recently.

It’s a concerning pattern that has the ability to reduce the effectiveness of COVID treatments, as acknowledged by World Health Organization officials this week—and perhaps even vaccines. In a worst-case scenario, increasingly immune-evasive variants could render them ineffective entirely.

BA.2.75.2 is being watched for its potential to escape the immunity provided by the last antibody drug that is effective on all variants, Bebtelovimab, according to Rajnarayanan and other experts. It’s administered to those at high risk of serious outcomes from COVID.

According to a preprint updated Friday by Yulong Richard Cao, an assistant Professor at Peking University’s Biomedical Pioneering Innovation Center in China, and others, BQ.1.1 beat it to the punch. The variant escapes immunity from Bebtelovimab, as well as another antibody drug that only works against some variants.

“Such rapid and simultaneous emergence of variants with enormous advantages is unprecedented,” Cao and others wrote in the paper.


It’s unknown how well new Omicron boosters will hold up against coming variants. But Cao’s paper notes that herd immunity and boosters may not protect against new strains. It urges the rapid development of broader COVID vaccines and new antibody drugs, and encourages researchers to test them against recombinants they construct in the lab, in an effort to gauge their effectiveness ahead of time.

So masks, social distance may have to do the main job again...in fact vaccines/anti-virals made matters (much) worse ?????

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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