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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately

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BabyCat View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately
    Posted: January 28 2020 at 10:20pm
*Update- go to the end of the thread for more current graphs

Fortunately, the direst predictions have not occurred. Relieved so far!!

0000

Not enough people are paying attention to this. The actual, reported infection rate data is following a near perfect exponential growth, matching up on a logarithmic scale. The math is brutal and inescapable.

If this continues, we are well and truly screwed. The travel "ban" is not stopping this sucker, not even close. In my opinion, the US and other countries need to ban all incoming flights from China, or institute mandatory quarantine for those who have traveled from China in the last 30 days. Extreme? Perhaps. But humans have no immunity to this, and there is no cure. A death rate that remains at 3% will be a catastrophe the modern era has never known. But I don't think anything short of massive and draconian measures are going to stop this. We have been warned.

Quotes from Twitter posts:
Exponential growth of #coronavirus infections. In a lot of places. The diagram uses a logarithmic scale. This allows to compare the #growth rates of #infections in different locations.https://mobile.twitter.com/t_kurz/status/1221854317944168448
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This is a log graph of #coronavirus cases, blue are data, orange is projected. spread is exponential At this rate, a single case could infect everyone on earth within 5 months and kill 1 billion people. https://mobile.twitter.com/prodreamer1/status/1222374250213859329
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#2019nCoV #coronavirus statistic trend 29/01/2020 update. Death rate continues to best fit a polynomial curve. Infection rate still best fits exponential growth curve. https://mobile.twitter.com/prodreamer1/status/1222374250213859329

Following #nCov incidences - I hope the model breaks out of its exponential growth phase. Pretty consistent doubling of cases every 2 days
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#Coronavirus Coronavirus Infected Cases & Prediction. This model was highly accurate so far. We're in trouble guys. 😟

Latest Numbers from WHO show that in about 2 days we are expected to reach 10,000 cases. so far we haven't seen and deviation from the expected exponential climb upwards. #coronavirus #ncov2020 #nCoV19   truly chilling to think soon we may have a big problem on our hands 😕🙁☹️😬 https://mobile.twitter.com/minhai22/status/1222044730097164288

-The problem with #Coronavirus is mathematics. Most people don't understand exponential function over time. On current course, this time next month, well over 1 million stand to lose their lives because of this virus. #health #pandemic #wuhan








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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 2:47am
   Albert needs to pin the projections, good catch Babycat.

   I agree, we did some rough extrapolations on Friday or Saturday and it looked to follow roughly the same path, not quite as aggressive but still close.

   One thing (among many) I'm waiting for is if the projections hold once the virus takes hold in western society...
   
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 3:07am
I'm more interested in what happen if it

Takes off in India, Bangladesh....the sub-continent
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 3:28am
"Interested"............... hmmmm interesting times!
ERCD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 4:47am
With China now over 60.000 "under observation", very limited testing for the virus, at least 2% of people with the virus showing no fever-still spreading the only good news is that airlines stop flying to China since there is no demand.

Still so many cases are already "out of China" for the moment there is no easy way to slow down the spread.

Stopping major travel-all around the globe-to slow down the spread, stop mass-meetings-are seen as "draconic". Not doing so will show to be worse-the spread goes on.

Most likely already more cases out of any observation, hospital, testing etc. so statistics only catch the top of the problem-with most of the growth-and risks-out of sight for any organization.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 6:57am
Based on this curve, I am not sure why more people are not worried about this. I understand its not proving to be really lethal but that can change at the drop of a hat. Why does it seem like people are acting as if this is nothing?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 7:34am
They're acting like it's nothing because they're being told "We're safe". I'm sure officials are worried, but it's their job to keep the populace calm but it's being misleading.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 7:35am
Seriously, that silence is people holding their breath.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 7:58am
Originally posted by pheasant pheasant wrote:

    Albert needs to pin the projections, good catch Babycat.

   I agree, we did some rough extrapolations on Friday or Saturday and it looked to follow roughly the same path, not quite as aggressive but still close.

   One thing (among many) I'm waiting for is if the projections hold once the virus takes hold in western society...
   



Okay.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 8:29am
What you are seeing more accurately depicts an exponential ability of the Chinese government to detect and report cases.   I think it is quite impressive.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 8:48am
Good point. The rate at which new infections can be reported I think are being limited by the availability of testing kits, actual hospital visits, etc. How many more exist? Just a tip of the iceberg, imo.

What happens if/when this hits India? Africa? Would climate limit its spread like other coronoviruses like the common cold? Will we see waves/seasons of infections like 1917-1918?

I think it could be like then, but worse, because, like then, we have no immunity, there is no cure/vaccine, but we have air travel.

On the other hand, we have global social media and people can try to isolate themselves, which I think is the saving grace at the moment.

I still have contacts in China, and even outside of Hubei, the country is essentially shut down, public spaces (subways, stores, streets, buses,etc.) are deserted. Ghost towns. Everybody is inside, self-quarantined. Contacts post pics and videos of deserted streets, how bored they are at home for 10 days now, how shops are out of various items, how expensive food is now as food production/distribution has essentially halted, since it is mostly poorer folks working these kinds of jobs, and if travel is limited, they cannot work.

At what point, because of this, will the infection rate curve start to change inflection? (The slope becomes smaller or first derivative changes)) Will it be in a few days or a few weeks? This virus is now "out in the wild" and unfortunately the impact is only going to be delayed or reduced, not eliminated, until we get a vaccine or an effective treatment. I only hope like many viruses, its virulence reduces as it infects more people. As someone who appreciates the math, I want to see more data, but as a human being, that data going forward comes at an enormous cost.

Here in Northern California, the Bay Area is home to many people with current ties (recent travel, or connected to those with recent travel) to Mainland China. I suspect this virus is already circulating here as a result, and health departments and people are naively assuming there are fewer carriers than I suspect there is. So, I started wearing a mask in public. I don't care what anyone else thinks anymore, besides, no one cares anyway here. This is the time to do so I believe because we have so many unknowns, unknown Ro, unknown incubation or transmission vectors (eyes?), unknown virus hardiness, high attack rate (20% serious rate per WHO), asymptomatic shedding, and H2H transmission. I am not going to wait until "the government" tells me what I should do first.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 9:08am
One thing to keep in mind, is that this is Chinese New Year, where millions and millions of Chinese mainlanders travel "home" (province or village), or fo vacations overseas. So, right now, there are undoubtedly Chinese tourists, infected, in the US, in Thailand, in Australia, in Europe, wherever, who may be infected and have/still are spreading this. This is not "racism", this is a public health emergency. When the WHO didn't declare a global emergency I knew immediately they had made a mistake and would soon be forced to correct it. That is now playing out.

I try to see things logically. Right now, either people are in denial or downplaying what they HOPE is not happening, or following the logic, math, and epidemiology. Another prediction, right now major airlines are cancelling flights to/from China. Soon, I think within about four to five days, the US will be forced halt all Chinese airline flights. They already floated the "trial balloon". I think the CDC is holding off on some data for a while until they can get plans in place. They release data on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. Be prepared for some news, is what I think.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 4:18pm
Ruh-ro. Today's new figures puts us ABOVE THE line with continued exponential growth:

Coronavirus update:
- 7,811 confirmed cases worldwide
- 12,167 suspected cases
- 170 fatalities
- 1,370 in serious/critical condition
- 124 treated and released
- All regions of China reporting cases
- 17 countries reporting cases

https://twitter.com/BNODesk


Yikes!!

My prediction - WHO will belatedly issue a worldwide pandemic alert tomorrow, simultaneously with CDC declaration of additional US cases. Also, see more airlines shut down all airline travel to China, followed by most countries closing off Chinese airline carriers. Like Boeing's plane 727-MAX, the US is going to be leading from behind on this one, following other countries.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 6:11pm
Tomorrow's prediction is for 11,090 total infections, and 229 total deaths. Let's see.

Thailand has now admitted they can't stop the spread of the virus, and they are at 14 infections now, with thousands of travelers from Wuhan in the past month.

The battle to control the infection is now lost until a vaccine or cure or effective treatment is found, or it mutates, I believe. It's now only a matter of time and degree to how fast, to where, and to whom, it spreads. There is, I fear, even a chance it may be declared a national security event. Look at how China has essentially ground to a halt. With SARS, it was for a fairly short term, this is much bigger, much faster. My contacts in China, not even in Hubei, say it's a state of emergency.

Keep prepping. People will remember your (unheeded, likely) advice, and soon come to you.

I am seriously considering going to my safe place, and SIP, as hard as it is for my brain to combat denial.

I think I will know if that will be necessary in about two more weeks, or less, I believe. It depends on how the US reacts. I am reminded of Churchill's description of the US, paraphrasing...we do the right thing..eventually.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 7:15pm
Please stop with the panic tones. The current type A flu that has a vaccine you can still get has killed over 9000 people in the US alone. Many of these are children under 5 with known preexisting medical issues. This pandemic flu one of the ones we are way overdue for will take out the old and the young infirm for the next 6 months in countries with poor medical facilities . A vaccine will be here within that time. This novel strain already has been sequenced by the Chinese and shared with the world. Many labs are working off prior coronavirus strains with vaccines already cutting the time to manufacturing vaccines in half. Most everyone in this forum are prepping . We know how to SIP. If you still don’t its time to learn. For the rest of us take a deep breath and lets calmly go forward into this calamity
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 8:09pm
We have every reason to be worried. My Girlfriend has many health issues. I have many health issues. The corona virus attacks the lungs and in some cases is followed by ADRS. Both of us are using sleep machines. She has a spinal cord injury and COPD. I have Cerebral Palsy, It is hard already for us. We are prepping the best we can given our limitations. I can be prepped and ready for SIP in 30 minutes. We are doing the very best we can given our limits. We are going to try to do the best we can.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 8:30pm
I suppose you are correct, no need to sound panicked. It is a bit much of a doom and gloom. Thank you for that.

But it is certainly concerning.

I do believe that things will be alright in the end.

I was just reading the story of vaccine pioneer, Edward Jenner, a fascinating story if you have a bit of time. In the late 1700s, smallpox killed 10% up to 20% of the English population. His brilliant observation that cowpox was quite similar to smallpox, led hi to test on James Phillips, the 8 year old son of his gardener (probably didn't get permission I imagine) to deliberately infect him with cowpox from the pus of an infected milkmaid. When the boy came down with a fever but recovered, he deliberately infected him this time with pus from a smallpox victim, this time he survived well.

Fortunately, we have made incredible advances in the development of vaccines as you noted, so now it's just a matter of time.

I hope many can protect themselves long enough until it is available.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Jenner


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 8:37pm
Usk, I think a degree of panic amongst us is a good thing. The time for laissez faire has long since passed.

I also don't think we should casually talk about thinning out the old, young and infirm. This epidemic may turn out to be less serious in time but that is currently not looking likely.

Right now, with the information we have to hand, I think the tone of slight panic is an appropriate response and will serve to keep all us regulars on track and will convey the correct level of seriousness to any new members or visitors.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 8:49pm
I agree Kiwimum...many people who do not prep will come to this site and ask what to do. We have always said purchase can goods you always use just get more of them, get batteries, keep your gas tank full, buy bottle water.

None of us has panicked but we just stepped up what we are keeping in our homes as extra food, water, drugs and candies . We are all very concerned because if this is bad and spreads here and in NZ we want to help as many people as we can.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 8:55pm
That's great, practical, and healthy advice, Flumom. Being prepared, being neighborly, being kind.

On another note, President Trump has now formed a nCoV Task Force. I think the President is taking this seriously, and will do whatever he has to do to protect the US, this I am certain. I hope he is getting good advice.

Here's a list of those on the task force. Note the Homeland Security and National Security participants. As I mentioned, "national security." But they are deputies, not a top level task force, so it seems it's not presenting as a threat to the US as it is right now in China. In China, it seems it has the potential to be extremely economically, and potentially politically destabilizing, the "black swan" events investors talk about.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 4:52am
Yep i agree. She's full blown pandemic! I ran a few graphs. The R0 is approximately R2.5 over a 10 day cycle.

I consider myself a fence sitter having experienced many viruses here on this site. However. This one has everything adding up to a grand catastrophe.

The authorities wont be able to keep up. There will be panic. Hospitals will overflow. Its going to be chaos.

PLEASE REST ASSURED The death rate is not high. I don't believe that many will die as the death rate is less than 1%.

You can guarantee people will panic so be careful.

good luck all..
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 7:50am
Thanks for your insight and wishes Cobber. Would you mind posting one or two of the data points/graphs you used to compute Ro? The Chinese scientists just published it as 4.08.

And, yes, I think it's too late to contain this. It's just a matter of time, where, when, how long. Vaccine development will become a national security priority, and the elite in Washington, first responders, hospital and lab personnel, and anyone with connections will get it first of course.

Look at Wuhan right now. That's how other Chinese cities may shortly become. Then Vietnam...Vietnam is going to be endemic in a month or two I fear, and hit just about everyone. Impossible to stop.

California, right now, I fear, is about 10-14 days into the transmission cycle and there is nothing the authorities can (will?) do about it. I believe it's transmitting a symptomatically.

Take care, don't panic, be well.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 8:12am
New graphs today:







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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 8:18am
It’ll be interesting to see what today’s numbers look like. They jumped 1700 yesterday, and 800 the day before, so if it continues to trend upward like that, we should see an increase in the region of 3400. That should put us at around 11400 “official” cases.

We’ll see.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 8:19am
That is one of the most classic cases of an exponential curve I have ever seen.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 9:48am
Some say, that it's too perfectly aligned to an exponential curve, and represents China deliberately obscuring/managing the numbers.

Senator Cotton says China is lying.

I lived there for five years. I agree.

It's worse than that curve.

My advice is to quietly prepare. It's too late to contain.

People are going to start really freaking out, more and more each day, I fear.

Remain calm.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 9:52am
What's really frightening, is, if you are watching the numbers, is that total deaths are greater than total recovered right now, 171 to 143. That's of a set of confirmed, rather than total infected who have survived.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 10:18am
First confirmed case of H2H transmission in the US being reported in Chicago.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 10:22am
Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

What's really frightening, is, if you are watching the numbers, is that total deaths are greater than total recovered right now, 171 to 143. That's of a set of confirmed, rather than total infected who have survived.


Or “cured” as many people seem to think.

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 11:58am
I don't think there is cause for "panic" but rather very careful consideration of the facts:

   What we know:

   (1) The charts, graphs, and known information says this is getting larger in an exponential way.

   (2) The sanctioned news (official news) coming out is dire.

   (3) Social media, and local news points to the difficulties with food, medicine and other shortages.

   (4) Never in modern history has a government tried such a massive quarantine before.

   (5) The spread and numbers are closely following projections, and have NOT deviated very much.

   What we do NOT know:

   (6) We don't yet know what the societal, political, and economic ramifications will be in short term, or long term. (there are many industries whose supply chains have already been interrupted, we are just now seeing tiny examples of the ripple effect)


   (7) The true CFR, Ro (good ideas, but not concrete yet)

   (8) What the virus will do in NA, EU, Africa, and elsewhere.

   (9) What the global response will be in western countries, and how effective the containment measures will be.

   Taking everything together it looks bad, but things looked bad during SAR's, the bird flue and others at the beginning.....

   The difference is the exponential and short window this time for this bug. If the graphs, and numbers hold, It's going to be bad.

   I hope it isn't, and i hope the raw numbers are wrong.

   Or in other words, this bug already quacks like a duck, looks like a duck, and walks like a duck, the only thing left to see is if it can fly and swim.

   Just my 2 cents.
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 12:08pm
Yep. What pheasant said

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 1:28pm
Babycat - can you please keep posting your graph from the first note with updated stats? I may just build a spreadsheet myself but don't wan tot have to do it over again!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 4:03pm
Heres the chart. I pegged the start in November. This is an R2.5 and ten day cycle.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 4:12pm
What are the numbers from today? I don't see them anywhere!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LittleJake Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 4:15pm
Having worked on a possible H5N1 out break in 05. Here is a projection. World wide full exposure by the 4th of July. No vac will be ready by then. This takes into account maximum efforts to slow the spread down and people doing their best to not get sick. Based just on my previous work and how we saw the Bird flu play out, I would expect most of the power grid to stay up and local water supply to stay active. The JIT supply lines will present a problem for those that have not prepared for this. I suspect that no one on this site will be caught with their pants down and not ready.
Do not ever panic, stay calm and focused.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 4:22pm
Guys, it is not here in our backyard yet. When we see it spreading in the U.S. then we can start talking about panic. At this point I am looking at Chicago, the husband got it from the wife. Question how many people was the husband in contact with after the wife got sick???

This is what we need to be looking at!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 4:36pm
Way too early to panic and panic is never the right response.

This is nasty and I personally beleieve, that it is far nastier than we are being told. But panic never helped anyone. It only gets in the way of being sensible.

When the nasty finally arrives on your doorstep, THEN you SIP. Before that, stock up what you can and stop panicking over what you can't.

Isolation is the key. The masks, glasses, gloves, aprons etc. offer a tiny bit of protection, alcohol gel slightly more, good hygene practices are better still and isolation is the best protection of all.

You still have some prepping time.

Our FluMom is worth listening to. She has the whole process pegged. I have watched what she said and it makes more sense than most people. You won't get soft, sloppy sentiment from her - just good solid commonn sense.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 7:04pm
For those keeping a close eye on the numbers, here's a source with regularly updated totals: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Currently 9822 worldwide cases (officially), 213 deaths as of 1/30 8:55 ET.

Starting to deviate from prediction, but perhaps more of a function of lack of testing or testing kits. Apparently China has a current testing kit max production of 4,000/day which may be breached soon (if not already)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 7:15pm
Wow. So they won’t be able to count the infected soon?

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 7:15pm
I am so glad to see it go down from the predictions...this gives me hope!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 7:18pm
But I'm sure China will soon increase production of kits. They can, and do, anything they can in a big way when they want to, and this comes from the top (Emperor Xi). Xi must know that to lose this battle risks being seen as losing the 'mandate of heaven' in Chinese dynastic lore, and thus risks being pushed out.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 8:06pm
Here's a response I posted in another thread, and I wanted to get more thoughts on here.

It was in response as to why there are so few recoveries compared to deaths at the moment.

Here's my theory:

I think what's happening is a typical patient contracts it, it takes 7-10 days until they go to a hospital, a few days more to test and finally be admitted (have to fight to get there, otherwise there are MANY just suffering, and I presume, dying, at home), then while at hospital, deteriorate over maybe 7-10 more days, into more serious and then critical phases, then either death or recovery. So think of it like a funnel, and those are the numbers coming out at the end. It's a process that began in earnest around 12/15, got to 41 infected by 12/31, then has been adding and exploding since then. So, if the typical disease progression from infection to death and/or recovery is about 21-24 days, then that would explain the much smaller numbers of those at the moment.

If this theory holds true, the number of dead may go from linear to exponential quite shortly, in a matter of 3-5 days.

And, this also implies that of the 9800 currently infected, over half of them may die.

Is this possible? I mean, wouldn't China want to play up the recoveries?

Could it just mean that they are reluctant to release to ensure they are not infectious? I saw some pictures yesterday of recovered patients being released in my former city, so I doubt that's an issue now.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 9:18pm
This fresh tweet from BNO indicates the problem:


BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
·
18m
The numbers are from the day before. There are also limitations to how many people can get tested every day. Right now there are 9,822 confirmed cases but more than 15,000 are still being tested


--

That means there are, right now, likely 25,000 probable cases in China, since, remember, the docs are only testing if a patient is obviously extremely ill. as many reports have suggested, with such a limited testing kit supply.

Right there, is the bottleneck. Still exponential.

Remember the reports last week, or 90,000 or more? True. China now have over 100,000 under observation.

This also means, prepare for exponentially rising confirmed numbers, closer to 25,000 in two, maybe three days.

This indicates extreme infectiousness, as suggested also by the dozens of countries now with confirmed cases. Ro could, as China has indicated, be closer to 4.

I believe it's no longer possible to contain this, only delaying it to your door, and figuring out the actual CFR. The Titanic has just hit an iceberg, and people are still kicking around the ice on the deck.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 11:10pm

CHINA TOTALS

9,701 confirmed     
213 dead     
1,527 serious
171 recovered
15,238 suspected

15,238 + 9701 = 24,939 probable.


I'm sorry to keep being the bearer of bad news, but it's patently clear we should expect rapidly rising numbers in China (even if they are obscured/manipulated), and soon, elsewhere. These are not normal numbers for a bad flu season. Look at the evidence, it brought an entire province, and soon, an entire country, to a standstill and on its knees in about a month.

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Ro is a bit of a moot point right now. It's not even debatable it's sustained, efficient, and accelerating H2H transmission. If it gets an entry point, it exploits, efficiently. Patient to doctor in France, wife to husband in Chicago, wherever it goes, it infects. If there was transmission and infection that wasn't caught by health authorities running too far behind to catch up? Off to the races. It's already in the US. It's already in 21 countries now, and counting. In less than 45 days?? Please open your eyes and prepare now.

We need more information on the mechanisms of infection, the CFR, infection onset and duration, etc. It's a time for the doctors, now, and the vaccine developers to race to save those who may be infected.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 1:51am
I think the numbers are tailing off because China can't keep up with counting them. - We know they have insufficient kits (Thank you QuietPrepper*) BabyCat has pointed this out and so has FluMom** - both of whom seem to 'grock'the situation. I agree.

In my humble opinion, the numbers are simply growing too large for the massively overstretched Chinese system to count.






*http://www.avianflutalk.com/incredible-citizen-reporter-video-from-wuhan_topic40581_post282694.html?KW=test+kits#282694

**http://www.avianflutalk.com/incredible-citizen-reporter-video-from-wuhan_topic40581_post282699.html?KW=test+kits#282699
ERCD
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