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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately

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BabyCat View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2020 at 10:50am

In watching the virologists report on phylogeny of the virus, no significant mutations for virilence/pathogenicity found...yet...that I've seen...could be wrong though. Dr. Campbell and a few others are worried, though, which concerns me.  The experience with the Spanish flu, and the difference between the first mild wave and the second deadlier one is concerning. (very interesting history of how forced, cramped WWI conditions lead to a rise of virulence)

https://nextstrain.org/ncov



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2020 at 11:41am

Comments on chart below, Japan's, France's and Germany's (and followed closely by Spain's) numbers are entering into more obvious (to the average person), exponential rise. The EU and UK raised the threat level to the highest I read. Also, Iran's and Italy's (and the US') CFR rates suggest significantly more infections than confirmed. 



OTHER PLACESCasesDeathsSeriousCriticalRecovered

South Korea5,18634341126

Iran2,33677--291

Italy2,50279140-160

Diamond Princess
706636-10

Japan293623-43

France21248-12

Germany1960-216

Spain1200-52

Singapore1080-678

United States1047259

Hong Kong10022436
OTHER PLACESCasesDeathsSeriousCriticalRecovered

South Korea5,18634341126

Iran2,33677--291

Italy2,50279140-160

Diamond Princess
706636-10

Japan293623-43

France21248-12

Germany1960-216

Spain1200-52

Singapore1080-678

United States1047259

Hong Kong10022436
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2020 at 11:48am

One of these statements has been proved demonstrably false. 

Resign, Dr. Redfield. This was a foolish, negligent statement about a situation was was eminently predictable (it's a new virus with a high Ro...it spreads!)

I would have been happy with "There is no evidence #COVID19 is spreading in the community at this time." But NOOOO, you had to play politics. 'Don't test, don't tell" right?

As I said earlier in this thread, at the time, and before, simply scandalous. A scandal that would give the virus more time to spread undetected. 

Every American should be angry about this. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2020 at 12:16pm

I just reviewed most of my projections in this thread. I thought I was being too much of a "doomer" in my projections. Reality is, I wasn't being enough. Most projections were under. Projections of 10,000 went form March 20, then to 10th, to 8th, to 5-6th, to 4th, 2nd.  

It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better, unfortunately. 

Dr. Fauci, whom I respect, apparently said this: 





Dark dark dark... NIAID Director on #COVID19: “I don't think that we are going to get out of this completely unscathed... I think that this is going to be one of those things we look back on and say boy, that was bad.” Holy crap I didn’t want to hear that.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2020 at 12:30pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2020 at 2:16pm
Postscript: My original quote was in the  which I thought had huge circulation. Around the same time I said the same to the . The WSJ article made some ripples, but the Atlantic one went completely viral. Not what I expected.

10

6

52







As the estimates of R0 are declining to sometimes below 2, I think it is appropriate to propose a lower range that accounts for more uncertainty in the true value. There is some subjectivity in deciding how much to weight diff estimates.

6

24

79







Because I am now less certain of where the R0 will end up (and how it may vary geographically) I am going to revise downward the range of outcomes I consider plausible to 20%-60% of adults infected. This involves  subjectivity about what range of R0 may turn out to be true.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2020 at 2:23pm

Still 20%-60% attack rate. Still very bad. If CFR is 3%, follow the logic, do the math.

20% of US population (350 M) = 70 Million -> 70 * .03 = 2.1 Million Americans dead. 

60% = 6.3 Million Americans dead. 

It could take a scythe to the elderly and those living with health conditions....(shudder)

Here are some US and other country death totals from war. To put things into perspective. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2020 at 2:35pm

The world is progressing faster than my "uncontained" previous projections. The big question is, when, and how, will the exponential line be tamed. Does it do so because it runs out of people to attack, or because people minimize social contact, or..?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2020 at 4:54pm

Here's another good website for county by country (you can look up your country), and total infection confirmations/death figures. 1 day lag update time, some data is still a bit spotty, but generally accurate. 

https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker/ 



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2020 at 5:58pm

But this is simply, hands down, the best website for tracking data. It's a live Google spreadsheet, and has over 120 volunteers. 

https://covid2019.azurewebsites.net/

US is at 122 now, other sites can't keep up. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2020 at 6:06pm

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

But this is simply, hands down, the best website for tracking data. It's a live Google spreadsheet, and has over 120 volunteers. 

https://covid2019.azurewebsites.net/

US is at 122 now, other sites can't keep up. 

WOW... South Korea at 5,328

If it's to be - it's up to me!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2020 at 6:07pm

US CFR at over 7% with only 122 confirmed infections suggests many more undiscovered cases. 

Either that, or its virulence is worse, or US health care is worse, or both. (Well, it also helps doctors know why the hell someone is sick in order to treat them properly!!). The next-of-kin of the dead on Feb 26 should sue the CDC. Maybe that will get their attention about overly narrow testing criteria. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2020 at 6:23pm

US Projections based on current counts (could be revised later this evening). I consider these very low estimates (but have to use the data available), based on previous under-testing (suppression), and now greatly expanded testing along with loosed testing criteria. 

Each day will add another data point. I believe the US will follow Italy in terms of disease spread. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2020 at 6:47pm

Here's another great data site for the US. It's in Chinese, and way better than the crap data the CDC puts out (or chooses or allows out)

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2020 at 7:58pm

And that last site, is the FASTEST with reported cases. 126 in US now, all others are at 122 still. 

I'm going to use them often if they can keep up. 

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en


The site also have CANADA data, and it is in English (didn't see the tab).

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2020 at 8:34pm

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

International cases rising 18% day. I did a quick breakdown projection, where we might be in 30, 60, 90 days at that rate.


Day 1 326 (today)

2 385

3 454

4 536

5 632

6 746

7 880

8 1038

9 1225

10 1446

11 1706

12 2013

13 2015

14 2378

15 2806

16 3311

17 3907

18 4610

19 5440

20 6419

21 7575

22 8939

23 10548

24 12,447

25 14,6687

26 17,331



---


Conclusion: Would it hurt to be a little prepared for this, in case (God forbid), it happens like this?

Blast from the past! On Feb. 7, I posted the above. If you count the numbers, it predicted that  the numbers would be

23 10548 (March 1) Actual 9,042

24 12,447 (March 2) Actual 10,776

25 14,6687 (March 3 - obviously a typo, should be 14.687) Actual: 12,818 (day isn't completely over)

--

Wow, from 25 days out, and I'm within several thousand (off by a day, more or less). 

Not bad shooting! I think the government needs to stop paying experts so much money and hire a basic, common sense guy like me. ;)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2020 at 8:55pm

My next projection should scare you if you haven't been paying attention.

Projects 100,000 cases worldwide (ex-China) by March 15...in 12 days. 

I believe it's going to happen, no matter what the authorities do, because they've already shown inaction, delayed reaction, too little, too late. It's already baked in the cake, considering the incubation period and hidden cases, and lack of preparedness worldwide. The front line medical staff in some countries may start to fall. Even if all countries were to go into lock-down tomorrow (which they won't), I'm convinced it will probably still happen. Whether it's a combination of Iran spillover, or Japan, or Germany, or Italy, or West Coast USA, it's going to add up to that, because if it's not there, it'll be elsewhere, and then everywhere, after that. 

It will start, like Italy and Korea, as a small fire, then, if not properly handled, explode into a firestorm.  Pretty soon, one of the embers is going to drop onto a powderkeg (e.g. a dense, urban network, like Calcutta, or New York, or Paris, or Cairo, or Berlin, or Sao Paolo, or Osaka, or Tokyo, or Mumbai, or Dehli, or Chicago, or London, or...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2020 at 10:02pm

My US 22% projections haven't been half bad so far:



Projected at 22%Actual 
2/29/202072
3/1/202088
3/2/2020107       103
3/3/2020131       128

But I doubt the 22% will hold for long, probably not even a day or two. It will rise significantly soon. 

With Italy, and the discovery of several deaths and an apparent cluster, they shut down 12 towns. What is the US doing at a similar discovery? Crickets. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2020 at 6:15am

Quick question- does anyone think that coronavirus will be put on the back burner for most folks? I mean  not a priority anymore? Maybe because of "coronavirus news fatigue"? Or because folks have very short attention spans and if this thing isn't right in my backyard at this moment, then nothing to worry about.
I think there will be a time where others will just ignore it all. Only a few of us will understand what is really going on or even care.

'When you feel as though you can't do something, the simple antidote is action: Begin doing it. Start the process, even if it's just a simple step, and don't stop at the beginning.'
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2020 at 6:22am

On social media, I see some revving up concern, others who don't acknowledge but worst of all, I'm seeing derisive "don't worry about it.. it's like the flu" misinformation posts.  

In my personal life, I'm not seeing friends express concern.  Or my sister.  But my brother is busy researching and revving up his concern.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2020 at 7:17am

Yes, people already seem to be tired of hearing about it, but denial of reality can only last so long as a protective mechanism..when the problem can no longer be ignored, dismissed, ridiculed, argued against, or minimized. These will be the people who will panic the most, and become desperate. Desperate people do desperate things. 

Just because it's happening "over there" doesn't mean it can't "happen here." The messaging from the CDC is saying it "can happen here" which is important to condition people.  Cognitive dissonance writ large, for the most part. 

But, look, you can try to convince others, but it's really not your job. It's almost too late for a large governmental response. It just ensures the eventual problem and the necessary response just keeps getting larger and larger. Look at Italy. They can't contain it. They cancelled all public events, cinemas, etc. Just prepare yourself and those who are open to it. Others? Well, they make their own choices. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2020 at 7:59am

Several of my friends just keep posting joke memes about it.  Or discussing the inconvenience.  Have to admit, I lost it on a couple of them. Told them if they'd been watching videos from China at the beginning they would be taking this a heck of a lot more seriously. I might have used stronger words. Ahem.

Fortunately, a few responded to my Facebook post last week where I said "feel free to message me privately if you want more information", so those few are at least taking it quite seriously, and got in some supplies before the madhouse shopping this week. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2020 at 8:17am

The fellows at work were downplaying it, and didn't want to hear about it last 2 weeks...so I have been quiet.

   starting Friday people are waking up, so now they are more attentive to the news.....most if not all of the conclusions we here at AFT have been talking about are accurate....that is a testament to all the hard work everyone here is doing, we are certainly ahead of the curve....Congrats to all!

   As to the "news fatigue" I personally have been hit with it, tracking this, checking and making sure we have what we need is draining.....I took some time and recharged...that was refreshing.

Everyone needs to make some diversions and do fun things, or you will burn out....I'm thinking this will be a steady trickle, with mini floods of news, over the next 4-8 weeks...maybe over 12 weeks

The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2020 at 10:26am

Not stopping yet. When? Will it?


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2020 at 4:56pm

Well, 3 more cases in my county, Santa Clara County,for a total of 14, which is probably the second highest number outside of WA/King Cty....

2 are local transmission, 3 under investigation:


Total Cases
Travel-related
Community Transmission
New Cases Under Investigation
Close Contact to Known Cases
14
4
2
3
5

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Pages/home.aspx 

They have also updated their advisories and recommendations, now recommending elderly and at risk to stay indoors, avoid public gatherings, etc. and for employers to start exploring work from home options, among many other NPIs (non-Pharrmaceutical interventions). They are also openly messaging and discussing school related issues, abseeism, remote learning, etc.. It's getting very close to confirmed breakout.

I read a great analysis similar to what I've been suggested with the 11 deaths so far, which, like Iran, is likely only a small fraction of current cases, and we still aren't reacting fast enough. 

I fear it's going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better. 

Back to my projections...

A few days ago, I used 22% as an interim guiding factor...it's held up well for a few days:

                            Projection   Actual (as of early eve. 3/4)

2/29/2020
     72
3/1/2020
     88 
3/2/2020107     103
3/3/2020131     128
3/4/2020160     159
3/5/2020195
3/6/2020237
3/7/2020290
3/8/2020353
3/9/2020431
3/10/2020526
3/11/2020642
3/12/2020783
3/13/2020955

But, like I said, this 22% won't likely hold for long, as you can see by the numbers it's accelerating. We're only now able to catch up confirming what already probably exists (maybe in the low thousands across the country right now). Trouble is, without this confirmatory early testing, we are running blind to try to contain, contact trace, mitigate..

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2020 at 5:02pm

So I think it is more likely than not, that in about 3-4 days, we'll (the US) be around 400 or more and people are going to start to be shocked. Outbreaks looking like WA (Seattle), OR (Kirkland), and CA (SF Bay/Silicon Valley), possibly NYC area.  Expect the things I've been talking about in my previous posts...starting with working from home, school closures, non-essential business closures, sudden travel restrictions/advisories, increased testing and surveillance, hospital and emergency services emergency footing, increased emphasis on social distancing, cancellation of corporate and social gatherings, events, conventions, marathons, etc. beginning in 1-2 weeks, starting with Seattle and Silicon Valley outbreak zones. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2020 at 5:57pm

Good evening. There are now 15,627 worldwide ex-China infections, a number which is climbing as I type this. Disturbingly, the daily increase is also (as expected though, accelerating as well). Twice, in trying to create some charts, dramatic additions were made to the total .The day isn't even over yet (the way I've been calculating the 'day' at least). This site has the fastest ex-China world and country specific updates:

https://covid2019.azurewebsites.net/ 

This site has the fastest US updates:

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en 

Now on to some fresh charts:


The last chart has a more updated figure.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2020 at 6:10pm

I feel like I'm on the tracks, and a freight train is coming. The warning horn has been blaring for miles. At first, it was very far away, and all I could hear was a faint rumbling. Then I started hearing the horn blowing. Then I could see it coming. Now it's so close to me the earth is trembling. I want to be able to jump off the track, but where do I go? What do I do?  That's why I came here to AFT, to prepare and avoid the train that is in front of us. More than likely, I'll be fine, just by the numbers (98% probability I'll live, 2% die, more or less, if I get infected. But what about others?

Can it be stopped in time before it does even more damage? Can we slow it down? And where's the conductor anyway? 


I would LOVE to be wrong about the projections. Maybe the Spring really does reduce the transmission, and countries have a reprieve. Tell me, because I don't really know at this point. It's a complete guess, and so are the experts. But, I do trust they'll try to do the right thing. They'll make some mistakes, but with everyone focused on solutions, the problems can be dealt with. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2020 at 7:03pm

Recent charts -

First, some "good news". Although I don't believe China's numbers, the trend, from the evidence coming from China, does appear true. They have apparently, through extreme social control, succeeded in limiting the devastation of the epidemic. There are certainly open questions whether that can be maintained with them slowly getting back to work, but it does appear larger, far more devastating harm has been greatly reduced. Can the rest of the world do the same? Will it? When? How? That's what I don't understand. The world watched China battle, and her people suffer, and pretend that it wasn't as great a threat to them. North Korea immediately locked down, shut the border, deported foreigners, etc. It's an extreme state, and an extreme example, but you get the idea. Why are stronger surveillance, containment, mitigation measures being taken right now, in the most critical time period? I don't get it. Singapore also showed how to hold the monster in the can, by sitting on it (the world's finest disease control, as demonstrated when it really matters), while its tentacles writhed out at anything it could grab hold of. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2020 at 7:30pm

Your train example is perfect. I feel the same way.

I'm beginning to believe that the US is going to be hit the hardest, because - as hard as it it is to really wrap my head around it - we have been by far the most stupid in our lack of response. And I don't think that's going to change. UNLESS, the individual states break with the CDC and do their own thing. As of today our state is still parroting the same ol crap.

I've had a bad feeling for a few days, then the news of the 2nd Princess ship just blew my mind.   



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2020 at 8:29pm

Guys most of us have done what we can to prep.  We can do no more, rest easy that you have what you need and in a few weeks you will not be those people looking at empty shelves worried.  I am calm even though I am going to tell my boss that I am going on a leave of absence starting at the end of March.  I love my life and my son and I want to be here for him as he goes through life.  I love and trust the Lord and I rest easy that he is in control of my life and what He decides if fine with me.  I just did my best for me and my family.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2020 at 8:41pm

Thanks KiminNM, yeah, I'd have to agree with you. I'm truly surprised the US isn't more focused on this.  I think the states will have to take the lead. Russia is as serious as a heart attack about it it seems, as are many other countries. The US? Will it take an unfolding disaster to see more concerted action? I mean, and here's a little known detail that perfectly describes the horrible preparation the US has done: the Seattle cluster was found by a SeattleFluStudy scientist who had to find a way around the CDC test criteria restrictions, to test patients who were flu test negative, to find the first confirmed case, the teenager...they developed their OWN test from the messed up CDC kits, and did it because the tests were permissible as "research"!

And FM, that was sweet, touching, and inspiring. 

I am also trying to prepare to get ready, not just for me, but my family, which includes two 80+ parents.  I'm doing a lot of it for them. They are wonderful, but also realistic. They are sanguine at the possibility this may take them, saying, well, they've had a great life..but I can swear to you I'll certainly try to prevent their early passing if I can help it! I


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2020 at 11:38am

Good morning, it's March 5, and there are currently 208 confirmed infections in the US ( https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

As I projected a few days ago, the rate is now exceeding 22%. 

 


Projected at 22%
2/29/202072
3/1/202088
3/2/2020107
3/3/2020131
3/4/2020160
3/5/2020195

So far today (day isn't even half over!)

 


Actual
2/29/202072
3/1/202088
3/2/2020103
3/3/2020128
3/4/2020160
3/5/2020208

Prepare for bad news. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2020 at 1:08pm

USA projections. Undoubtedly a significant underestimate. 

Prepare for significant, imminent disruptions to Washington, California (Bay Area, LA), Oregon and New York states by the authorities. Already large school closings in Seattle, prepare for more. 

Things will move VERY fast now, within days you will see mitigation measures across the country enacted. This should have be no surprise to anyone reading this thread. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hoosiermom22 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2020 at 2:29pm

Thank you BabyCat for all your hard work. I have such a packed schedule I barely have time to prepare for this and keep my head above water in day to day life in normal circumstances. Your data has been spot on and I really appreciate your diligence. 馃憦馃徎馃憦馃徎馃憦馃徎

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2020 at 2:36pm

I agree BabyCat you amaze me with you graphs, lol most of which I really do not understand, I am not too bright.  But I know they say it is going to get worse not better.  Thank you for all your hard work!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2020 at 2:43pm

SIX new, confirmed cases of unknown origin in my county, Santa Clara County. It's a s*%tstorm and I'm right in the middle of it. My family is still going out, and I'm hoping the county will declare an emergency and force school closings/work from home orders, so they stay safe, because they aren't able (or willing yet) to "turtle"  like I have. But, I'm as prepared as I could be I suppose, given the time that I've had. 

If I, and a family members is confirmed, I'll think about letting you know. It would be a tough call, you know, what with privacy on one hand, and my sense of obligation, as you've seen in this thread, to warn others....



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2020 at 2:51pm

228 cases in US so far and rising fast. I told you the 22% wouldn't hold but for a day or two. 

Predicting rising to 1,000 by Sunday/Monday. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2020 at 3:28pm

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

SIX new, confirmed cases of unknown origin in my county, Santa Clara County. It's a s*%tstorm and I'm right in the middle of it. My family is still going out, and I'm hoping the county will declare an emergency and force school closings/work from home orders, so they stay safe, because they aren't able (or willing yet) to "turtle"  like I have. But, I'm as prepared as I could be I suppose, given the time that I've had. 

If I, and a family members is confirmed, I'll think about letting you know. It would be a tough call, you know, what with privacy on one hand, and my sense of obligation, as you've seen in this thread, to warn others....


I spent 20 odd years in Santa Clara County (mostly San Jose). This is so hard to hear about. Just stay safe and healthy. :-)  Sending blessings... 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2020 at 3:37pm




100% chance of more tests returning positive
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FXHedge

@Fxhedgers
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SANTA CLARA COUNTY CA REPORTS 6 NEW COVID-19 CASES TOTAL NOW 20 OFFICIALS CONSIDERING CLOSING ALL SCHOOLS IF MORE TESTS RETURN POSITIVE- KTVU
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2020 at 3:39pm

This guy is a snark master.





Imagine if you knew Katrina was coming and how much damage it would do at least 2 months in advance but waited to evacuate people until after the storm hit
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FxMacro

@fxmacro
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PENCE SAYS U.S. DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH CORONAVIRUS TESTS TODAY TO MEET ANTICIPATED DEMAND GOING FORWARD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2020 at 3:40pm




Tedros starts to freak the hell out 42 days AFTER China began construction of makeshift #coronavirus hospitals
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Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus

@DrTedros
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We're concerned that in some countries the level of political commitment & the actions that demonstrate that commitment don't match the level of the threat we all face. This is NOT a drill NOT the time to give up NOT a time for excuses This is a time for pulling out all the stops
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2020 at 3:43pm

Don't forget, Bernie Sanders held a big rally in San Jose 4 days ago...I fear that the event was just a disaster vector for the virus, the city, and the country. Bernie's team are travelling everywhere. Will they be tested if any are showing symptoms?

I mean, history doesn't usally repeat, but, good God, are we this stupid??

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2020 at 5:12pm
US #CoronaVirus Response 42 Days after China Began Constructing Makeshift Hospitals 1.  Don't test. 2.  Don't contain. 3.  Don't increase hospital capacity. 4.  Don't wear masks. 5.  Do rate cuts.

The mask "shortage" was eminently foreseeable. It was part of the previous pandemic plans, to have them in stock. This is a failure of the highest order. 

I have a growing feeling this will be Trump's Katrina moment, and contained only after a brutal, agonizing time like China's and an unconscionable number of deaths. 

The CDC is simply negligent with still restricting/gate-keeping testing at the moment, overruling docs and health depts...

I've been right so far. 

Trump's re-election may not be so assured because of this. 

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