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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately

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BabyCat View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 5:55am

By the way, UW Virology in Seattle has been an incredible leader in testing and ramping up testing capacity throughput early on. Here's a link to their live (throughout the day because automatically updated by the testing machines).  Not looking good:

https://depts.washington.edu/uwviro/

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 9:11am

As projected, Trump just invoked the Defense Production Act, which mandates conversion/use of private industry and production for national purposes...also FEMA fully activated, Level 1.

On a scale of 1 to 10 and US response standind/condition, it's a 10. National Security Event declaration looming. 

The Supreme Court delayed oral arguments for the first time since the 1918 pandemic. 

We must ALL pull together during this time. 

This could be our finest hour. It is our patriotic duty to help stop this virus, every way we can. Consider starting a neighborhood volunteer group if you can to help those most in need. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 9:28am

DOD just stood up - deploying hospital ships Comfort and Mercy, forward deployment of mobile field hospitals. 

CRS...I expect your balloon is a distinct possibility very soon.  I'd give it a 50/50 in 2 weeks - watch the rise in confirmed number in 10 days - if still rising, balloon up, if flattening, perhaps not. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 11:14am

My friends, It is clear the threat is real. This is the time to stand up and define who we are. To show our true character. We need to reach out to others in need. It will be bad, but we will get through this. This is a call to action - we need not cower in fear, but bravely stand up and be ready to help those most vulnerable. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pandemic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 11:23am

I second that. Let's hope governments do too✨

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 11:36am

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

My friends, It is clear the threat is real. This is the time to stand up and define who we are. To show our true character. We need to reach out to others in need. It will be bad, but we will get through this. This is a call to action - we need not cower in fear, but bravely stand up and be ready to help those most vulnerable. 


This!

Bravo.

The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JellyMama Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 12:17pm

Wonderful words! Let’s put our bickering and political differences aside and work together again as Americans helping each other. We do that so well.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 1:12pm

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

DOD just stood up - deploying hospital ships Comfort and Mercy, forward deployment of mobile field hospitals. 

CRS...I expect your balloon is a distinct possibility very soon.  I'd give it a 50/50 in 2 weeks - watch the rise in confirmed number in 10 days - if still rising, balloon up, if flattening, perhaps not. 


Well The Comfort which was supposed to come to NY Harbor has been reported docked for repairs by the news not 10 minutes ago. Here's hoping The Mercy is on its way to the west coast!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 1:13pm

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

My friends, It is clear the threat is real. This is the time to stand up and define who we are. To show our true character. We need to reach out to others in need. It will be bad, but we will get through this. This is a call to action - we need not cower in fear, but bravely stand up and be ready to help those most vulnerable. 


 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 1:27pm

It is not length of life, but depth of life. Ralph Waldo Emerson 

People living deeply have no fear of death. Anaïs Nin 

A man with outward courage dares to die; a man with inner courage dares to live. Lao Tzu 

Whatever you want to do, do it now. There are only so many tomorrows. Michael Landon 

As soon as you’ll realize it was a gift, you’ll be free. Maxime Lagacé

Man cannot possess anything as long as he fears death. But to him who does not fear it, everything belongs. Leo Tolstoy 

Greater love has no one than this: to lay down one's life for one's friends. John 15:13

----

"We can cower in fear of death, but the truth is it is inevitable. Instead, we can live courageously for our fellow man, and in this simple act of love, we will live forever. " -Babycat.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 4:08pm

Originally posted by Pandemic Pandemic wrote:

It is estimated that about 20% of cases are asymptomatic. These people are not aware that they have the disease but are still contagious. No wonder the disease is rapidly spreading.!!

From the Italian town, that figure was 50-75% asymptomatic!

https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/16/news/coronavirus_studio_il_50-75_dei_casi_a_vo_sono_asintomatici_e_molto_contagiosi-251474302/ 

Coronavirus: "Il 50-75% dei casi a Vo' sono asintomatici. Una formidabile fonte di contagio"




How one small town at the center of the outbreak has cut infections virtually to zero: test all 3,300 in town, isolate the 3 percent who tested positive. Infection rate 10 days later down to .3 percent. https://ft.com/content/0d
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pandemic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 4:22pm

That's frightening🙏

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 7:00pm


Good evening. Today is 3/18, and current US confirmed are 9,360 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ )  I suspect we'll hit 10,000 either very late tonight or early tomorrow morning when NY updates. Again, pretty close to projection. It's clear that US rise is still exponential. The question is how effective the current social distancing measures are, given that they are relatively limited to a few major metropolitan areas, scattered school closings, etc. My complete post criticism of government inaction and lack of coordination from 3/10 thankfully has significantly improved (expanded testing, disaster coordination, messaging, mitigation measures, PPE, enhanced authorities, etc.). However, it is still rather like Italy in a sense in that the are half-measures, and as we know one cannot fight an exponential problem with a linear response.

From 3/10:

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

An important projection for the US.

I think we'll hit 10,000 by 3/18. Still many reports of testing kit shortages.,,,,


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 7:08pm

Well, you have been spot on BC...got to hand it to you I could never be that smart!    We are doomed because a lot of people are not taking this seriously.  They think this is all panic for no reason.  So that is why I am SIP and going to stay that way.  I suggest if any of you can do the same.  

I also think there are some half believers they think it might be bad but are still going out with out protection because they don't have it or don't care.

I have a friend in Utah Salt Lake City...no sugar and no flour at the stores.  She has 2 jars of peanut butter and some other food but the shelves at the stores are empty so nothing for her to buy.  I hope the stores get re-stocked soon so people like her can get some food!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 7:18pm

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

DOD just stood up - deploying hospital ships Comfort and Mercy, forward deployment of mobile field hospitals. 

CRS...I expect your balloon is a distinct possibility very soon.  I'd give it a 50/50 in 2 weeks - watch the rise in confirmed number in 10 days - if still rising, balloon up, if flattening, perhaps not. 

Balloon not up, the way that I define it....I'll let you know. 

HHS is supposed to be deploying "push packs" from the Strategic National Stockpile, these have medical supplies like masks, drugs & other times that are loaded onto trucks and jumbo jets for deployment to areas in need.  Please see the video.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NYnlJbHUno


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 7:49pm

I'll just leave these here...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 7:58pm

Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

DOD just stood up - deploying hospital ships Comfort and Mercy, forward deployment of mobile field hospitals. 

CRS...I expect your balloon is a distinct possibility very soon.  I'd give it a 50/50 in 2 weeks - watch the rise in confirmed number in 10 days - if still rising, balloon up, if flattening, perhaps not. 

Balloon not up, the way that I define it....I'll let you know. 

HHS is supposed to be deploying "push packs" from the Strategic National Stockpile, these have medical supplies like masks, drugs & other times that are loaded onto trucks and jumbo jets for deployment to areas in need.  Please see the video.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NYnlJbHUno


Thanks for all that. Good video. Didn't know much about SNS. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 8:03pm

Sorry, but earlier I had missed a comment about doing individual state or country projections....

It's not that hard, just start tracking the state confirmed numbers each day, at the same time each day if you can...Put them into Excel to save, by making two columns, one the date, the other, the number. Then copy and past the data into this free chart plotter (Excel doesn't forward project exponentials easily for some reason) https://sheet.zoho.com/sheet/scratch  and select the chart icon, chooss exponential, logarithmic, etc. Not too hard to figure out. Would be super interesting to see NY's case rise...

Just need to have a few data points to start with, then add as you go..

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 8:05pm

CRS, does the SNS have enough PPE to send all over the U.S. to protect our medical workers?  That and do they have vents to make a difference?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 9:21pm

PS. Brazil is going to have a very, very large problem very soon. I expect cases there to rise substantially faster than, and soon overtake, most European countries. Although only 509 current reported cases, I believe it's become endemic and they have only just begun to recognize its spread. The penetration to the top echelon of their political system was a clear sign. 

There is also significant undertesting and underreporting in the UK, as deaths are presently double expected CFR. 

BREAKING: Brazil reports 137 new cases of coronavirus and 1 new death, raising total to 509 cases and 4 dead
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 9:57pm

I'm starting to suspect that the US will see an "unexpected" explosion of cases throughout middle America very, very soon. The number and breadth of confirmed cases in so many out-of-the-way regions and all states (when I review the kinds of places showing up here, I mean when out-of-the way places in rural areas of Minnesota have it, there is transmission chains everywhere right now  https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en  is indicative of extremely wide spread of virus. 

Outside a national shut-down, I don't see any way out of this. I give it 7-10 days, probably sooner. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2020 at 8:05am

Ever feel like you're in a very scary time machine?




BREAKING: New York state reports 1,238 new cases of coronavirus, taking the state's total to 4,152 and  raising the U.S. total to more than 10,000
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2020 at 9:15am

Warning: Political content. If you are offended easily at this, don't read further. ;)

Jeez, watching the President say,just now - "Nobody could have ever have thought we'd need tens of thousands of ventilators..." Well, yes, many did. Many, many, many people, experts in every pandemic plan that was never executed properly, and even me, about six weeks ago, in this very thread. What a whopper. Just like he said CV19 was nothing, and days later, "I always knew it would be a pandemic" 

What flim-flam. I would vote for someone else I suppose, but everyone else is multiples worse.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2020 at 9:30am

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

What flim-flam. I would vote for someone else I suppose, but everyone else is multiples worse.

He was 'continental-drift slow' at the start, but I would swap ours for him in a heartbeat now.

Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2020 at 9:47am

BabyCat do you know how many vents we have in the Strategic National Stockpile?  I don't, but you can't be prepared for an event like this...I have been a business owner and you just CAN'T have 100s of thousands of vents just sitting there waiting.  Criticize but use some judgement on what you say. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2020 at 9:53am

Flumom, you are very sweet, but the problem is not just one of supply, it's a lack of planning and imagination. If you look back over my posts, I estimated we had about 100,000 vents. The press conference yesterday mentioned this exact figure. We've had 8 WEEKS of direct foreknowledge. Little action on this. Little prior planning for industry to convert to ventilator production and how, despite years and years of pandemic planning. Everything is all cobbled together ad hoc. Trump said the buck stops with him, and I believe him. He may have inherited issues, but from Jan. 22, it's all on him. 

Look, Trump is a politician, I get that. But at some point you just gotta be honest. To his credit, he's doing  everything he can right now, since late last week, and for that, if this turns out ok, I'll probably still vote for him. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2020 at 10:39am

Babycat you should have contacted the President and told him of your numbers and I am sure he would have changed his course immediately!  Look government does not work that way if you had ever had a high political position you would know that.  You have to get things by other people before you act.  It all takes time...Trump has sped up everything.  I would hate for anyone else to be President at this time, IMO.

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Yes, your graphics and data have been brutally amazing. I'm sorry that your country folk are heading for a very difficult time. Europe is now, Italy in particular and there's more to come for all of us✨✨✨

Location - Rural location in Hampshire, England
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Perhaps it is possible the real information was not getting to the President...so perhaps I'm being unfair. It's sad that bureaucrats (and perhaps Jared, I'm guessing) worked to limit the information. The response now is all hands on deck, and I'm relieved. I'd prefer President Trump in this moment of war than ANYONE else. But it doesn't help to never admit fault and shift blame, that's where I disagree. 

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The President is a Billionaire and men like that do not take blame well...they always want to win and win big.  Not an excuse just the way they are egotists...at least this Billionaire is for the American People and I agree with you I would rather have him as President than anyone else.  Look at Biden no one is saying it but his mind is not working on all cylinders!  Other people not Biden will be running the country if he is God Forbid is elected President. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2020 at 3:34pm

US cases, half-way through 3/19, are at 13,671...And, as I have been projecting since about 72 cases, we're seeing proof of significant under-testing of existing cases, which we are now rapidly identifying (finally!)

Unfortunately, the trajectory towards 100k by 3/27 strengthened considerably and as I mentioned is most certainly already "baked in"

We'll most likely see the casualty minimums (6,000) I explained before. Now is the time we need to Shut.It.Down.  and Test.Everybody. 

Chart with today's partial data:


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2020 at 3:46pm

Extremely concerned about Spain. 831 deaths, with 18.077 confirmed. Deaths suggest 2-3x that number, and the fact that most of them are in Madrid. Lockdowns were only a few days ago, suggesting very high peak coming, and are already overwhelming hospitals. 

The worldwide death toll of the #coronavirus surpasses 10 thousand; Italy: 3405 China: 3245 Iran: 1284 Spain: 830 France: 372 US: 171 UK: 144 S.Korea: 91 Netherlands: 77 Germany: 44 Switzerland: 33 Japan: 32 Belgium: 21 Phillipines: 17 San Marino: 14 Sweden: 11 Canada: 9


The situation in Spain is Italy-level scary or worse. Read : 1) Madrid hospitals saw one coronavirus death every 16 minutes on Monday 2) At least 19 dead at Madrid senior home due to a outbreak 3) Coronavirus deaths reach 767, with 169 in just the last 24 hours
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2020 at 4:38pm

Important to understand the speed of exponential growth with CV-19..





1. New study suggests the serial interval — time from when Person A gets sick with #Covid19 to the time a person that A has infected gets sick — is ~4 days. That's fast. 12.6% of people infected in this group of patients were probably infected when infecter was presympatomatic.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lakeman5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2020 at 5:02pm

That graph just a few posts up demonstrates that at this moment the growth is being slowed. Thanks for snall mercies. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2020 at 6:29pm

Originally posted by Lakeman5 Lakeman5 wrote:

That graph just a few posts up demonstrates that at this moment the growth is being slowed. Thanks for snall mercies. 

Thanks for your thoughts. I'm trying to figure out which graph you mean, and how growth is being slowed....

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Hazel, this is for you:


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Our warnings here during that time were ominous, but not classified. They were open to all who had eyes to read.  We wanted people to heed them. 




#BREAKING: U.S. intelligence agencies were issuing ominous, classified warnings in Jan., Feb. about global danger posed by the coronavirus while President Trump, lawmakers played down the threat..
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kaye kaye Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2020 at 6:16pm

What threat, lol, not even allowed to say it came from China now, didn't you get the memo?


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2020 at 6:49pm

Yes, it's the Chinese virus, came from China. Like Chinese food is Chinese, and Bird flu comes from birds. 

What gets me is this headline not only tries to portray the threat as "secret" knowledge (!) but that it was known and ignored  by Trump, to smear him. Fake media gonna fake. Some journalists are just dumb. 

---

On another note, this doesn't look good. For the US, it does seem like a dramatic rise, and it is, but it's simply the compression of cases due to lack of earlier testing. 





Warning sign
As predicted, the number of #coronavirus cases in US is exploding with greater acceleration than *any* other country with this many cases. More #COVID19 testing is revealing the huge number of cases with more still to come. Expect a MASSIVE surge thru the next few weeks.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2020 at 6:51pm

P.S Most people may not understand that much of the information the CIA and other intelligence agency analysts collect and aggregate to analyze, interpret, and predict, is open-source, such as this website, perhaps even this thread. Heck,  it's been pretty close to some of the fancy, smanshy ivory tower near-term modeling I've seen, and all I'm using is my relatively trivial math knowledge of exponential functions, people's behavior, and various systems,and many other sources and thinkers but in a critically thinking way, like many other posters here. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2020 at 7:02pm

So the significant rise is due to increased testing.  I think we will have 5 or so more days of sharp increase, then a level off then a drop.  We have to think about this positively.  If we are all SIP the rise has to stop at some point.  right?

NOW is the Season to Know

that Everything you Do

is Sacred
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2020 at 7:15pm

Yes, that's the hope, and the plan. 

I think cases can and will level off, but when, exactly, I don't really know.  Social distancing measures, as many other experts have stated, may need to continue for some time. We need to test as many and as fast as we can, isolate, and treat.  Antibody testing would give us an enormous help in this by identifying those who already had it, to determine incidence and focus more efforts.  The machinery of response is cooking now. I am much more optimistic than I was a few weeks ago. 

However, this is going to be present at some level for some time, and we may see various waves. Other countries may get a really, really bad first wave, like Italy while others, like China or S. Korea, seem to have had a bad, but managed first wave. Dr. Osterholm believes other waves are coming, like back to China.

I am starting to be concerned about political and other instability in certain countries if this gets out of control, perhaps Brazil. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2020 at 7:43pm

Originally posted by roni3470 roni3470 wrote:

So the significant rise is due to increased testing.  I think we will have 5 or so more days of sharp increase, then a level off then a drop.  We have to think about this positively.  If we are all SIP the rise has to stop at some point.  right?

The data as of tonight with 19,648 US confirmed has moved the 100K date from March 27 to March 26 (projecting 110,000 by end of March 26), but I'm not ready to call that earlier yet because of the rapid expansion of testing and the possible effect of earlier social distancing in WA and other places. I think there are still some testing bottlenecks, such as with collection swabs, testing pipettes, or providers/states out of kits, so it's not out of the question the rapid increases may continue for more than a few days. I think a leveling off will come with the social distancing measures we are doing, but I'm concerned they are not enough, in not enough areas, and behavior hasn't changed enough in some areas so it may take longer and may not be as pronounced.  I think there are still some unrecognized hotspots in other states besides WA, NY, and CA. Time will tell, though. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2020 at 7:44pm

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

Originally posted by roni3470 roni3470 wrote:

So the significant rise is due to increased testing.  I think we will have 5 or so more days of sharp increase, then a level off then a drop.  We have to think about this positively.  If we are all SIP the rise has to stop at some point.  right?

If you mean a drop in the number of new cases versus the previous day, yes, hopefully, soon. The data as of tonight with 19,648 US confirmed has moved the 100K date from March 27 to March 26 (projecting 110,000 by end of March 26), but I'm not ready to call that earlier yet because of the rapid expansion of testing and the possible effect of earlier social distancing in WA and other places. I think there are still some testing bottlenecks, such as with collection swabs, testing pipettes, or providers/states out of kits, so it's not out of the question the rapid increases may continue for more than a few days. I think a leveling off will come with the social distancing measures we are doing, but I'm concerned they are not enough, in not enough areas, and behavior hasn't changed enough in some areas so it may take longer and may not be as pronounced.  I think there are still some unrecognized hotspots in other states besides WA, NY, and CA. Time will tell, though. 

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