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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 29 2020 at 3:09pm

No arguments there.  

STFH!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 29 2020 at 3:47pm
If it's to be - it's up to me!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 29 2020 at 3:50pm

Yes what did you all expect?  This is a NOVEL VIRUS!   A lot of people are going to die especially the ones who don't stay home!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 29 2020 at 10:30pm

Yes stay at home....Today's morning radio news had an item about how  "the week without work" (but with full pay) has backfired in Russia.  Instead of staying at home masses of people who no longer had to work spent the time traveling to visit friends.   

BTW Putin is another of the world leaders who have down played this pandemic.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 30 2020 at 5:00am

Idiocy is not confined to one state or country or leader.  It is universal.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 30 2020 at 6:13am

Originally posted by Newbie1A Newbie1A wrote:

Dr Fauci figures a 100,000 Americans dead (says 100-200 in article)   

 https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/fauci-says-coronavirus-deaths-in-us-could-top-100000/ar-BB11S5cj?ocid=spartanntp

I think Dr. Fauci is being conservative, to avoid creating panic. 

On AFT, I made the prediction that the WuHan virus was likely a corona-virus, like SARS, back on Jan 8, 2020.   After a few weeks, I took pen to paper and came up with this calculation, assuming that no control steps would be taken (sent by email to the FBI doctors I work with): 

"US population is presently about 331 million souls. if about 1/3 of us are at highest risk

for serious illness, the denominator is 100 million. CFR may be 2%, so 2 million might

die from this one in the US."


 Shortly thereafter, our British colleagues came out with their model, predicting the following: 

"In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality."

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

The key term here is "unmitigated epidemic," i.e. no social distancing, no stay-at-home etc.  At least in the USA, we are attempting to do some of this.  However, it is spotty....only a handful of states have aggressively instituted mandatory stay-at-home policies, while others are very lax.  So, we are not practicing mitigation in a sense that will snuff this out.  

Therefore, I am going to go on record and say that we will face 200,000 mortalities in the USA AT MINIMUM, and likely 500,000 with potentially 1 million, depending upon how quickly our politicians take control of this situation.  This does NOT include collateral mortalities from patients who die because of lack of hospital space for heart attacks, childbirth, stroke, auto accidents etc.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 30 2020 at 8:27am

My understanding is Fauci explained that in the best case scenario there would be 100,000 deaths.  The worst case will be 200,000 or better.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote interwebber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 30 2020 at 10:01am

Over the last 2 days I have been getting more and more optimistic. It seems like number of new cases and new deaths starting to level off in many places. Yes lots of cases, deaths, and health systems overloaded all over the place...so we all need to STFH to do our part. But important things like 5-min tests are starting to come on line here in the US. And growing evidence (Yes it's anecdotal.. but this is a Pandemic) that anti-malarial drugs given early enough before lung damage occurs in at-risk population has me thinking this nasty bug gets knocked down quickly as long as drug production ramps up with a flattened curve. I am hopeful deaths equivalent to a really bad flu season and everything back to normal in a few months. Not letting down my guard. We are SIP and will continue to do so. Just wanted to share a different perspective. Here is a link to an article today FDA approval last night and 30 million doses donated to the US national stockpile (enough to treat about 3 million people I think) and other manufacturers out there ramping up production. Stay safe.

https://news.yahoo.com/fda-emergency-authorizes-malaria-drugs-115945660.html


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 30 2020 at 5:09pm

Glad to be able to report some good news. I was significantly wrong. Yes!

I projected 1,000,000 ex-China worldwide by 3/30. Well, we won't hit that today, as now at 702,911. Not going to forecast a revision. The US projections are also significantly lower than projected. We will not reach 1,000,000 by 4/2, and hopefully, never.

The world is bending the curve. Let's hope it continues, and we can avoid large successive waves. Oh, and Brazil's Bolsonaro is a reckless demagogue.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 30 2020 at 5:12pm

Bolsanaro is a public menace, health is but one part of it.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2020 at 4:37am

I am now concerned the flattening in the curve is due to testing capacity limitations. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2020 at 5:52am

THIS. 

India.

Know the scale of the tragedy this portends. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhdParody/status/1244775812345274370

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2020 at 6:19am

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

I am now concerned the flattening in the curve is due to testing capacity limitations. 



Me too!  Especially in states where they're not getting test kits.  Like Michigan.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2020 at 2:34pm

OMG. It's possible the virus is accelerating faster than we can test, isolate, and treat: 50% of those tested in NY were positive:

@lookner

·9,298 new cases in New York State since yesterday 5,686 new cases in New York City In part this seems to be due to more testing: 18,645 tested yesterday vs. 14K-16K on several recent days But also, % testing positive is up: 49.8% of tests were positive yesterday

https://twitter.com/lookner/status/1245017501173518356


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2020 at 3:54pm

Welcome to my world.  You're next.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2020 at 4:48pm

To control the pandemic, Breining said, you’d want to test enough people that the percent of positive tests falls to about 10%. At Northwell, this “positivity rate” can approach 50% on some days. 

“That positivity rate tells us we’re only testing a fifth of the patients we’d want to be testing, ideally, if we had unlimited testing available,” Breining said.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/31/test-makers-are-moving-fast-but-the-coronavirus-may-be-moving-faster/

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2020 at 4:53pm

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

Welcome to my world.  You're next.  

I'm actually a bit frightened by that comment. 

Next to be hit like NYC?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Thorne! Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2020 at 9:14pm

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

I am now concerned the flattening in the curve is due to testing capacity limitations. 

Yep, me too.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2020 at 4:50am

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

Welcome to my world.  You're next.  

I'm actually a bit frightened by that comment. 

Next to be hit like NYC?

Sorry BabyCat and anyone else for this ominous comment.  It was a bit of a throw-away comment made in one of my darker moments.  I don't know what state you're in, but from what I've been reading those states that did a lot of testing and ordered stay at home earlier rather than later have a better chance at avoiding the debacle happening in NYC than those that didn't.  

My city didn't have a chance because I believe it was already spreading before the first case was found when we finally got working test kits.   I remember it was something like two days after the first case was found in Westchester that it was announced authorities could no longer do tracing.  Mind-boggling.  But it makes me feel less paranoid that I started stay at home/social distancing back in early February.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2020 at 5:00am

Ah, yes. I was warning people around me like a lunatic since late January..I was told by my employer to "stop freaking everyone out". I was right. Everything I said was right. I doubt they'll reopen their doors anytime soon. There's a story there to be told some day. Warnings on deaf ears. For a few weeks I just looked at everything like it was the last time I would see it normally again. 

As far as testing limitations go, it appears we have a recent testing capacity probi:


https://mobile.twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1245108325512925184

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2020 at 5:11am

We've had a testing problem since day one.  This will be our downfall.  This will create situations that just shouldn't exist.  Every clinic and hospital should have test kits.  Testing centers should not be closing down because there aren't enough test kits.  

But equipment like test kits, PPE and life saving equipment seems to be a problem for us.  There isn't even enough space for the poor souls who lost their fight and we're storing them in refrigerator trucks!  

There just isn't enough to go around.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2020 at 5:12am

More evidence of current peak in testing:

https://mobile.twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1245130248317997059

I think that will change shortly, but still, danger is confirmations lagging behind spread 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2020 at 5:19am

And as a side note to your comment of not seeing things normally again.  I am convinced there will be a new normal after we're on the other side of this.  Society and life-styles will change.  Some will deal with change and others will not.  As much as I know there are those here who think this is a "powder puff" (and they're entitled to their opinion), things will change in ways we can't even imagine yet.  

I've been saying for many months now that I think we boomers need to get out of the way of the younger generation and let them build their world just like we built ours.  The parents of boomers didn't necessarily agree with those changes either.  But in my darker moments, I wonder if this virus will clear out a part of that generation that just needs to get out of the way.  

There I go again.  Sorry.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2020 at 8:47am

WM. I respect your courage to speak your thoughts freely - I can tell you are a true New Yawker!

I know you don't mean ill, and not the unnecessary death and suffering of anyone, and I think your thought is more metaphorical (generational ideas). It's the duty of each generation to take the reins and make it their own, evaluating the wisdom and preciousness of what they've inherited. It's a sacred trust. For example, America's republic...if we can keep it.

For me, I too odten hesitate. "Minnesota Nice" coupled with "Finnish silence" makes me want to scream from the mountaintop, but then...not, and later wish I did.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2020 at 8:55am

Alll the IC needed to do was follow this forum!!!

We nailed it from the beginning. CIA, I'm available. Experience in China, superior research and analysis abilities. ;)

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-intelligence-report-accuses-china-deliberately-underreporting-covid-19-infection

New US Intelligence Report Accuses China Of Deliberately Lying About Coronavirus Figures          

A day after China reported more than 1,500 additional "asymptomatic" cases that authorities said had been left out of the country's data, while promising to start reporting these cases (they've already reported 50 more on Wednesday, blaming most of them on travel) going forward, an intelligence report has been submitted to the White House accusing Beijing of deliberately underreporting cases.

The report, which was leaked to the US press by senior-level officials, revealed that the US believes China deliberately tried to conceal the extent of the outbreak, suggesting that Beijing's decision to lift its lockdown is probably premature, which is why they're pivoting toward blaming foreigners for these new "asymptomatic" cases that have supposedly been known to the government all along, they just simply 'forgot' to count them.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2020 at 9:08am

Other governments, like the one who issues my passport but which denies me the vote, only count case that die in a hospital - if they die elsewhere they do not officially have Corvid-19.  


ps. If I was given the vote I would not vote for Boris (sorry Tech!)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2020 at 9:14am

Originally posted by EdwinSm, EdwinSm, wrote:

Other governments, like the one who issues my passport but which denies me the vote, only count case that die in a hospital - if they die elsewhere they do not officially have Corvid-19.  


ps. If I was given the vote I would not vote for Boris (sorry Tech!)

Very good point. Italy I know is doing that. 

Why? That's what China did.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2020 at 9:25am

We here on AFT have been ahead of the curve all along, Kitten - and you have been illustrating it beautifully.  Thank You!

The information (despite China's best efforts) has been out there for all to see, if they bothered to look like we did.  Surely governments must have the equivalent of what we do in their analysts and I would think they had more information to start with.  I think each level in the various chains of command have downplayed the risks, so the further up the chain the message rose the weaker it became.  Denial is a powerful force, so is fear of redundancy.  I don't just mean America, I mean everywhere!

Heigh ho.  Many of our readership are SIP.  Considering the doubling rate, we probably saved quite a few.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2020 at 9:31am

Originally posted by EdwinSm, EdwinSm, wrote:

If I was given the vote I would not vote for Boris (sorry Tech!)

Neither will I - next time.

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Today is April 3rd, and a sad milestone has been reached over 1,000,000 worldwide ex-China infection (1,017,133 at the moment). 

Looking back over this thread, I wanted to see how my projections fared.

 ***Posted February 6th***

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

Well, someone asked to make a bit of a prediction of cases internationally in the next 30, 60 , or 90 days. Of cousse, the way this virus transmits depends on the healthc are system surveillance and response, government infection intervention efforts, the density of the area it may be transmitting in, their hygiene, etc. etc. etc.


However, one estimate an expert is working with said that it's doubling every 5 days, roughly.


Well, we can simply take our current infections and then see what happens every five days, right?


Here's what could happen internationally:

Today: 270

5 560

10 1120

15 2240

20 4480

25 8960

30 17,920

35 35,940

40 71,680

45 143,360

50 286,720

55 573,440

60 1,146,880


In the US, there are currently 12 infections.

5 24

10 48

15 96

20 192

25 384

30 768

35 1536

40 3072

45 6144

50 12,288

55 24,576

60 49,182


While these figures don't seem "that" frightening, they do seem a bit ominous. Hence, while I think all the talk is of "delaying" and "preparing" for the possible pandemic.

I don't imagine the US getting to that high figure, that soon, at this time. I think that strong contact tracing, case identification, and other measures (that layered response they talk about) will pay off like it did for the SARS response.

That, and I have faith this President is going to take this very, very seriously and do what needs to be done.

Another really important point is that one expert (Dr. Neil) said maybe 25% of international cases have been indentified yet). Others may not be reconginized, or are/were mild cases, but still transmissable.

Also, remember the reported case severity of identified cases is about 25%.

Conclusions:

The international projection was BANG ON from 60 days out (it's Day 57, and projected 1,146,880 on Day 60 - will probably hit that well, tomorrow or the next day (Day 58 or 59).

The US estimate was a a severe underestimate (today have 277,999) due to a severe lack of testing and surveillance and tracing. The greatest US policy failure EVER.

My confidence in President Trump to react early in the right ways was misplaced.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 03 2020 at 9:10pm

***Posted Feb. 8**** 

Actual: 1,000,000 by April 3rd (55 days)

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

I hope and pray this does not happen. Do everything possible to help contain the spread. Respect to public health authorities fighting this.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 03 2020 at 9:12pm

It's pretty grim however you look at it. Did you see the reports coming out of Ecuador? The bodies lying on the streets?

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 03 2020 at 9:12pm

Is anyone else a little spooked by that?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 03 2020 at 9:18pm

Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

It's pretty grim however you look at it. Did you see the reports coming out of Ecuador? The bodies lying on the streets?

Yes, saw them immediately as posted on Twitter (Guayaquil - yo hablo espanol tambien). It's bad, extremely underreported, and surging, likely to spread beyond. Ecuador made the mistake of assuming that it wouldn't affect them much because of warmer climate and younger, healthier population. It's endemic there and other places in Latin America already (ex: Brazil)- very small testing capacity. You'll start to hear more reports that like. It's going to be bad, really, really bad. Poorer, densely populated in the cities/countries with very minimal health infrastructure.

Colombia acted EARLY, saving many lives. Gracias a Dios!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 03 2020 at 10:21pm

I really have lost faith in any reporting coming out of some countries, like Ecuador.  I do not think they can keep up with how many dead much less getting people into hospitals for help and testing is probably not even being done.  We think we have it bad some of these countries in South America, Central America, Africa, India are going to be a huge mess with so many deaths they will lose count.

This is so sad but what can any of us do but sit and watch it all happen.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 03 2020 at 10:44pm

Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

I really have lost faith in any reporting coming out of some countries, like Ecuador.  


I've been looking at daily figures for all countries reporting, and it seemed that Ecuador was one of the best in reporting for South America (Chile also seems to be doing a good job).  Places like Venezuela and Haiti are very very suspiciously low when compared to neighbouring countries.   

Flumom, you are probably right about Ecuador figures being low, which shows just how mind-blowing this disaster is.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 03 2020 at 10:46pm

Oh, you are correct Edwin...I think a lot of countries are behind in reporting and not because they are dishonest...they just can't keep up with all they have to do.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 6:40am

My country is advanced, first world, rich; but they don't count all coronavirus deaths.  Care homes - not counted, untested - not counted  (and don't get me on the subject of how few tests we have!)  co-morbidities - often uncounted.

If we are that duplicitous, careless, hopeless how bad is the miscount in a third world country?  That is before you even add the duplicity.  

I would not be surprised if the real count was DOUBLE the official one.

ERCD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 1:42pm

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

I would not be surprised if the real count was DOUBLE the official one.

Both Boris and Dr John Campbell said that the real number was 10 or 20 times the official one.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 2:10pm

That would not surprise me either.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 2:44pm

So does Dr. Mina, a leading testing authority in the US. Definitely over 2 million, probably 4 million:

https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1246338140232695814

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 2:46pm

What is the actual CFR was under 1%?? What if we (and other nations) committed national economic suicide on a FALSE ASSUMPTION? THERE IS NO COMPLETE DATA PICTURE. Why?? Why no serological random national sampling?? Why not even random sampling for COVID-19???

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 10:41pm

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

What is the actual CFR was under 1%?? What if we (and other nations) committed national economic suicide on a FALSE ASSUMPTION? THERE IS NO COMPLETE DATA PICTURE. Why?? Why no serological random national sampling?? Why not even random sampling for COVID-19???

+1


Yesterday I was thinking of the same issue, but from a slightly different perspective. 

 With under testing the national figures are low - when the dust settles (and cases drop) it would be then harder for politicians to justify having committed economic suicide.  I think that while there might be short term benefit to play down numbers as cases rise (to try to curtail panic), in the long term it would be to the political advantage of leaders to report the higher figures to show that the hard actions were justifiable.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 05 2020 at 2:30am

Cannot shake the pics of overloaded hospitals.. ..That's real

Or the Ppe shortage...............................................That's real

The reefer trucks filling up with bodies...................That's real

The overwhelmed healthcare systems, morgues being filled to capacity, and other societies like, China, Italy, Spain, France, and dozens more.........Those are real too

This is the real deal, not a hoax.....the real hope as said above is one or more of the following: the antibody tests, and acceptance of the "new" normal, humanity will march foreword from this with hopefully just a bruise.

I think it's a forgone conclusion that with out mitigation (economic damage) there will be far more deaths......even as it is, we still may see images of bodys being left out on the street in advanced societies.........after 100 years of lightening speed progress, mankind was not psychologically ready for this.

That being said, we have the strength to move past it....the question is how long will it take.

The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote g0ldl10n Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 05 2020 at 10:19am

Pheasant, that is a true - but - are all the shortages of PPE because we actually used that many - or - is it because certain countries stocked up and hoarded the global supply at the beginning.. something similar to the toilet paper shortage us coming folk are facing (and other supplies such as hand soap)? Because YOU KNOW relative to the population as a whole there is a very few number of people sitting on so much toilet paper that they aren't going to get to for a year or longer.

Also, according to all the experts you're more likely to contract this virus sooner or later, so these mitigation efforts are just slowing down there inevitable. It is also slowing down the "herd immunity". And because of things such as that I don't think we can really know if we'd be in a different position we are now without actually going through this without these mitigation efforts.

I mean, if the death rate is well below 1%, (and possibly comparable to the Flu) if the experts estimates on how many people have or are infected are even close to reality you have to ask yourself, are more people going to end up being hurt far into the future by economic suicide than they would have otherwise if we didn't take those actions?

It's a pretty horrible position to be in but economists are predicting the impacts of this are going up make the 2007-2009 recession look like a picnic. We're talking Great Depression unemployment numbers (possibly worse). How many small/medium sized businesses that are responsible for the majority of employment never going to recover? 

Everyone knows poorer people die MUCH more often from preventable diseases and acute illnesses, and we know this is going to have long lasting effects on people's financial situations, so I don't even think we can even begin calculate/comprehend how many people end up dying from these preventable ailments in future that will reach many years into it.  

Guess just another way to look at this situation.

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