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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately

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pheasant View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 2:41am
   Phewww, I feel better, great news!

     If they run out of test kits the official numbers will drop! were saved.
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 3:11am
Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote endman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 5:20am
Any new virus has potential to get much worse
Yes flu is bad but we have vaccine
This new one nobody knows it could kill 10k or 100k people
Just my observation more people are sick now then a week ago
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 6:00am
Running short on test kits is very common. I remember in a previous pandemic. The doctors and nurses were hoarding kits so they could test friends and relatives. It was amazing how many healthcare workers were popping up in the stats.

I'm hearing the CFR is very low less than 1%. I'm also hearing about asymptomatic cases especially in children.

Even though this will be a pandemic. I still think its a powderpuff.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Emswally Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 7:42am
It all depends on if the virus can be transmitted
To another human while the carrier is not showing
Symptoms.   How can you really screen infected
Who show no signs ?     A game of catch up that
Can’t be won.     Pray for the best outcome. Prepare
For the worst.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 7:51am
It can. 1/30 New England Journal of Medicine letter describes German case of Chinese woman visiting Germany. Met with German guy, transmitted to him, he transmitted it to two others who never had contact with her.

Stay calm, prep.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 7:56am
This is what I mean.

I think the CFR of 3% is too low. It's going to take time for the CFR to catch up to the truer number.

This article, and this website, has great updates on nCoV:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/burning-bodies-secret-new-accounts-wuhan-detail-coronavirus-outbreak

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/corona%20virus%20vs%20sars_0.png?itok=z6ZPLOZq
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 8:05am
That beautifully illustrates my point. Thank you.

Not only does the new virus have a far wider, faster spread, but it kills more slowly, so the discrepancy between light blue and dark blue lines is greater.

We still do not know how many undiagnosed and asymptomatic cases there are, so each of them will lower the death rate somewhat.

It will be a long time before those things come to light. The advice remains the same: "Preparation not panic."
Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 8:49am
What is REALLY interesting in looking at this graph (and the data from 1/29 of 9822 infections closely matches the prediction, is that the growth curve multiplier of 53% is very close to the ratio of "official" deaths/recoveries 213/187 = .53.25%!!



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 9:13am
Word of the day: "escape velocity." The moment a virus reaches critical mass and explodes exponentially, essentially "uncontained."

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 10:21am
Keep watching the incubation/infection time lag period, compared to the number of infections in countries besides China...

This genie is out of the bottle. Now what's the real timeline of disease progression and CFR?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AlexSun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 11:57am
According to incubation/infection time lag my predictions are 290 death on last update for 1th of February and a scary number between 5000-7000 worldwide i'm afraid, not just in mainland China!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 12:07pm
Here's an concerning prediction from Twitter:

"Angry Arkie
@ArkieAngry
·
2h
Replying to
@stonygirl
and
@SenTomCotton
1.71 million will die of coronavirus related respiratory failure by about mid February. The epidemiology predictive models demonstrate exponential spread.. while I never agree with Cotton.. I do on this one."

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 12:10pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AlexSun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 12:43pm
Key facts
Pneumonia accounts for 15% of all deaths of children under 5 years old, killing 808 694 children in 2017.
Pneumonia can be caused by viruses, bacteria, or fungi.
Pneumonia can be prevented by immunization, adequate nutrition, and by addressing environmental factors.
Pneumonia caused by bacteria can be treated with antibiotics, but only one third of children with pneumonia receive the antibiotics they need.
Pneumonia is a form of acute respiratory infection that affects the lungs. The lungs are made up of small sacs called alveoli, which fill with air when a healthy person breathes. When an individual has pneumonia, the alveoli are filled with pus and fluid, which makes breathing painful and limits oxygen intake.

Pneumonia is the single largest infectious cause of death in children worldwide. Pneumonia killed 808 694 children under the age of 5 in 2017, accounting for 15% of all deaths of children under five years old. Children can be protected from pneumonia, it can be prevented with simple interventions, and treated with low-cost, low-tech medication and care.Pneumonia affects children and families everywhere, but is most prevalent in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
According to medical reference pneumonia it's very close to Coronavirus on icubation time and effects.

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/pneumonia
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lonewolf Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 12:58pm
Alexsun. This pneumonia is caused by a coronavirus not bacteria so although some of the info you posted is correct. This coronavirus's pneumonia can not be avoided at this time if you come in contact with it and come down with it. Neither by vaccination or antibiotics. Unfortunately neither will work
For pneumonia there are several things that can help reduce the severity though. Not smoking ( thankfully i quit not long ago) zinc acetate or zinc glutamate supplements (taken as soon as possible before or at onset) vita D, garlic, oregano oil (antivirals), onion, olive leaf extract, licorice tea. etc.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Emswally Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 4:04pm
Supposed research paper out of China stating Ro is
At 4.08
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 4:13pm
11948 cases now, with 259 deaths. About the same increase as yesterday, and deaths are at 259.

Anyone buying it?

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 4:27pm
Nope!
Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 7:17pm
So what do you all think the odds are that we're going to start seeing clusters next week?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BeachMama Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 8:48pm
We have a cluster in Germany right now — the Bavarian folks who were infected by a colleague. One of them has a child who has become ill. Spain’s diagnosis is apparently a person who came into contact with one of the Bavarian cluster. It seems we have a potential cluster in Chicago forming, as well — an infant who was exposed to the two ill people there has developed a fever. Of course, little ones pop fever all the time, so that could be totally unrelated. Time will tell.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 11:16pm





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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 11:20pm
Note on exponential modeling, there does appear to be some tapering recently, but I believe it may reflect the timing of the reporting for the day, as daily figures tend to come out late.

The CFR also seems to have stabilized at 2.2,2.1 based on this data, which although is likely circumspect, is all we have to go on.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2020 at 4:43am
Your graphing makes me wonder if it can prove the Chinese are lying about their numbers.
They may just be sending out numbers that follow a graph of their design to not panic the rest of us. Boots on the ground and cases globally do not fit your 2 R0   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2020 at 5:05am
The lancet article blows the case levels to smithereens. THE DEATH RATE must be much higher than reported.... So therefore the 4.08 Ro is more plausible than the Chinese or the US say....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2020 at 8:19am
The death rate is no doubt higher, but also since they don't have test kits the actual number of cases is higher so not sure if the 2.1% would change much. Thoughts?
NOW is the Season to Know

that Everything you Do

is Sacred
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2020 at 8:54am
From virologist in the hot zone
HEALTHVirologist Who Visited Wuhan Says Coronavirus is “Out of Control”
Fears scale of infection could be 10 times higher than SARS.
Published 1 week ago on 24 January, 2020 Paul Joseph Watson

A top virologist who was involved in the response to SARS says he has visited Wuhan, China and believes that the coronavirus is “out of control.”

Dr. Guan Check it out: https://summit.news/2020/01/30/coronavirus-model-predicts-183-million-infections-before-the-end-of-february/
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Notanewbie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2020 at 12:46pm
The 1918 flu came in three waves, each one more deadly. Was there mutations that made H2H easier or more virulent?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2020 at 1:01pm
A bit of both, I imagine. The first wave was considered to be no more than a bad seasonal flu at the time, but the second wave in the later part of 1918 infected far more, with much higher lethality.

This virus has already shown it’s ability to mutate if the 33 variants are indeed out there. That makes it hard to know what it can do as it’s exposed to an exponentially larger group of hosts (you and me...). If it continues to hone it’s skills, all bets are potentially off.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2020 at 2:10pm
I have been waiting for the reported numbers to very from the projections since 1/23 and they have not...... I keep holding my tongue,and forcing myself to say, nahhh it will stop or slow down, or something will change.

   I refuse to be an alarmist, but keep getting stuff in order, and hang on.

   Everyone also needs to be ready for the business, and economic impact of this, if the projections hold, our jobs and income will be seriously impacted, or cut off....IMO
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LCfromFL Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2020 at 3:12pm
Originally posted by pheasant pheasant wrote:

I have been waiting for the reported numbers to very from the projections since 1/23 and they have not...... I keep holding my tongue,and forcing myself to say, nahhh it will stop or slow down, or something will change.

   I refuse to be an alarmist, but keep getting stuff in order, and hang on.

   Everyone also needs to be ready for the business, and economic impact of this, if the projections hold, our jobs and income will be seriously impacted, or cut off....IMO


Pheasant - which part of FL are you in? I'm near Jax. How are the stores near you? I was in a local Winn Dixie today and the only thing that seemed to be out of stock was some of the dried rice. The Home Depot and Lowe's I went to today had N95s and goggles - but didn't have a lot left. None in the paint section but I found some over where they have safety goggles.

I always take advantage of the BOGO deals at Publix or WD...but in the last couple of weeks, I've stepped it up. We lost most of our preps from flooding with Hurricane Irma a couple of years ago. I've been working to restock things and I'm feeling much better about our readiness now.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Emswally Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2020 at 3:31pm
The Ro of 4.08 is from a Chinese research group
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2020 at 4:34pm
Latest numbers. I'm too busy prepping to do the charts.


BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
·
18m
Coronavirus update:
- 14,550 confirmed cases worldwide
- 19,544 suspected cases
- 304 fatalities
- 2,110 in serious/critical condition
- 328 in China treated and released
- Biggest daily increase so far
- 24 countries reporting cases

At least on paper, appears to be tapering, but still growing exponentially. Also the PFR is lower to 304 / 339. I'm sure this isn't accurate though, as many have likely died or recovered and are not recorded.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2020 at 6:30pm
Hi Lc, Marion county here, Walmart is out of surgical masks, haven't looked for other's, all else looks good.
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Still rising like a rocket.

Likely limited by test availability.

Let's pray that the quarantine effect from Jan. 21 starts showing up and starts bending this sucker. It's been about 10 days since then, right about the time the numbers should start reflecting it, if the Chinese don' keep playing obscure the real numbers, and try to count all those infected at home. Even if they don't, it should still show up in the official data.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pandemic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2020 at 4:47am
How this plays outside of China maybe revealing.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2020 at 4:50am
My thoughts exactly!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2020 at 12:34pm
Discussed early, important point recent Lancet article predicts exponential growth outside of Wuhan, lag time 1-2 weeks. (Can also infer exponential growth outside of China).

"If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext





Upshot: don't wait until you are told what to do, start preparing now for WHO predicted local outbooks. If 2019-nCoV was (or is) confirmed in your local area, take prepping seriously and calmly, is my recommendation.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2020 at 12:35pm
What's interesting is the graph which shows the exponential rate outside Wuhan, and outside China as nearly identical. Wuhan is overwhelmed, thus hiding the true numbers.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2020 at 1:22pm
Comments from the Twitterverse:

Confluence Capital
@YYC_Confluence
"As a non-expert in all things #coronavirus😆, I feel it's still important to goal-post outcomes. Using Hubei infection data (~60 MM people region) and S-Curves (no insane exponential garbage), it suggests early innings, 1% total pop infected ... small %, large headline risk ..."



"Confluence Capital
@YYC_Confluence
·
18m
Replying to
@YYC_Confluence
Of interest, other regions, like #Zhejiang, #Guangdong, #Henan have earlier & spottier data (not worth posting), but don't seem to be nearly as aggressive thus far - so efforts to contain seem to be having a positive effect there.
Confluence Capital
@YYC_Confluence
·
17m
And keep in mind, even #Hubei, the epicenter with the longest dataset available, is effectively an N=14 observation exercise (many of the 12h updates are unch. versus priors, so not valid "updates"). So still a lot of moving parts here."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2020 at 7:55pm
Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

I'm more interested in what happen if it

Takes off in India, Bangladesh....the sub-continent


Exactly! I was in India during the big Ebola epidemic in 2014, and the Indian government was paralyzed with the thought of Ebola coming into their country. With their over-crowding and total lack of sanitation, any infectious outbreak would be devastating.

nCoV2019 has a lower case fatality rate than SARS, and we haven't noticed a "super-spreader" yet as we did with SARS, but the outbreak is still evolving, thanks to the stupidity of the Chinese government. I don't worry about the global community as much as mainland China, it won't be long before they start shooting folks with sniffles (I'm serious).



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 4:10am
I've seen approcryphal youtube video of hazmat suit wearing officials with large rifles.

Even if a spoof, it shows what the Chinese man in the street is thinking. (Expecting?)
Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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John Ray View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote John Ray Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 7:11am
I agree. They always have when they are stressed.
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BabyCat View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 10:29am
Very good website with both linear and logarithmic graphs of virus infections and deaths:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


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