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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately

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BabyCat View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 10:31am
There is clearly some bending at the log scale. Good news, as the Chinese quarantine effect may be starting to show up. Either that, like many others, even the NYT, is that the Chinese are just intentionally manipulating the reported numbers. After my experience in China, I'd bet it's the latter. Still, the quarantine effect may actually be there, just that imagine reported numbers at 10-20% of actual.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 11:32am


Optimistic case?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pandemic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 12:41pm
That would be better news if confirmed 🙏🙏🙏. Theres several Youtube vloggers on the ground in the epicentre. Their reports are very mixed. No doubt, there is censorship. To what degree ??!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RFlagg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 1:23pm
This is my first post. I read the medium article that since been taken down (finally found it, somebody saved it) Until I read this article by https://jameslyonsweiler.com/. That is the root page, the article is 'On the origins of the 2019 nCoV virus, Wuhan, China'
The article seems to be the best I've seen so far that explains the possibilities of 2019 nCoV beginning.
It gives 4 possibilities and one of them is the accidental release of a virus that (I think) was intended to be a vaccine for China, researched in secret (of course). This makes the most sense to me simply because it doesn't make sense for China to deliberately kill their own people. It also makes sense because for them politics overrides everything.
In this case, James Weiler (I assume) says that China has a huge humanitarian problem on it's hands, BUT it should NOT spread out of China the same way that it is spreading IN CHINA.
The article just seems to me to be the best one that I have read.
I'm going to post this in other sites similar to avianflutalk.com.
I would like other people's opinion on this. Eventually me may find the truth, hopefully (aside from everybody catching 2019 nCoV too)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 1:31pm
This guy is a kook. 5 minutes of trawling through his site uncovered too many tin hat conspiracies and factual inaccuracies.

He may write books, but so did, Tuesday Lobsang Rampa, David Ike and a host of bigger loonies.
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What do you think is the best explanation?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 1:40pm
I think it a natural mutation. China has been playing Russian roulette with its saving-face policies, wet markets and hygene practices for decades.

I am not saying it can't be a biowarfare escape. It does tick all the boxes for one. But nature can do everything to produce this without any help from us.

When it comes down to it, I don't care. It is here now and we must deal with the consequences. Finding out it was natural or engineered does not help us save any lives.

If it was an accidental escape, then China is paying dearly for its stupidity. If it was natural, ditto. Looking for someone to blame is a pointless waste of energy that could be used to save lives.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 3:14pm
I Agree (again with Technophobe)

Pointing fingers is futile....and juvenile

It's like at work if you get a cold and someone gets it the day after

And they blame You....

Childish......
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 3:37pm
Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

I think it a natural mutation. China has been playing Russian roulette with its saving-face policies, wet markets and hygene practices for decades.

I am not saying it can't be a biowarfare escape. It does tick all the boxes for one. But nature can do everything to produce this without any help from us.

When it comes down to it, I don't care. It is here now and we must deal with the consequences. Finding out it was natural or engineered does not help us save any lives.

If it was an accidental escape, then China is paying dearly for its stupidity. If it was natural, ditto. Looking for someone to blame is a pointless waste of energy that could be used to save lives.


I agree, Techno. China plays Russian roulette with their food supply, allowing all sorts of wild animals to intermingle in their wet-market environment. These critters shed & pass viruses back and forth, so the bats infect the civets, civets infect people etc.

This doesn't have the hallmarks of a bioweapon release. It isn't nearly deadly enough. Trust me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 4:02pm
I don't like to put myself in the place of a biowarfare designer, but I had a go.

It occured to me that a moderate death rate could be an advantage.

It allows greater spread. Big killers like ebola tend to burn themselves out.

Who is the target? Individual people - then you want a big killer! or infrastructure - then you want to tie up the hospitals, doctors, dentists, opticians, suppliers of goods and services - you would need a moderate death rate - high enough for panic, low enough and slow enough to knacker the system!

There could be a use for a big killer, but they do not strike me as the only option. I know I'm not in the know, but this is just the sort of thing I would use.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 4:05pm
Justlike shooting to injure on the battlefield

Tie up 3/4 peoplejust getting wounded out.....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 4:09pm
Exactly!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 5:07pm
My children and I played this game last year where we were each a world leader and designed a bio warfare disease. We looked at what we wanted to achieve, why and how we would achieve it.

We decided that ultimately the why was that we wanted another country to move in to and we wanted it intact, with all it's infrastructure, assets and logistics intact, just with no people. So we could just move straight on it. We even wanted the animals still in the fields.

To achieve this our disease was highly infectious, no symptoms for 2 to 3 weeks, still contagious once symptoms appear and a death about week later, with a hugely high mortality rate. We pre-empted our strike however by developing a vaccine and vaccinating all our own people first and then checking for the immunity. We also used a stable virus, not an RNA strain.

Btw, we released it via a hairspray cannister in 15 international airport bathrooms simultaneously around the world.
You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 5:08pm

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 04 2020 at 7:05pm









From Twitter:
"You build a fake #coronavirus model if:

1. The numbers are higher and you hope the exponential will eventually outpace the actuals

2. You are trying to cover up the severity and hope the exponential will eventually outpace the actuals

3. Are over-reporting (not going there)"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 04 2020 at 7:16pm
Exponential growth out of China continues:

"On February 4, there were 38 new cases outside mainland China, the biggest daily increase to date
Quote Tweet

BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
· Feb 4
A little bit of good news about coronavirus: The number of new cases outside mainland China is currently declining:

Jan. 31: 28 new cases
Feb. 1: 14 new cases
Feb. 2: 11 new cases
Feb. 3: 6 new cases"

-As I've mentioned previously, 1-2 week incubation period and reporting/testing lag time. It's reasonable to prepare for continued increases. Whether or not they are exponential, remains to be seen. However, it does appear to be the case.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RFlagg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 04 2020 at 7:47pm
An article in Daily Star suggests death rate higher than reported. Crematoriums said to be running 24 hours a day. Smog or smoke over city in these amounts are not typical, it suggests.

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/fears-thick-death-smog-over-21426098

Shocked/not
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pandemic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 05 2020 at 1:22am
There's talk of a 5 day doubling rate for nCov cases, being reported on UK radio this morning. The official figures from John Hopkins tracker, seems to show a significant rise in cases but lower rise in death rates!!, If I'm not mistaken...maybe hope at last !?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RFlagg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 05 2020 at 9:19pm
Do you mean in the sense that it's mutated to a less deadly form and maybe multiplies faster or spreads even more easily?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 05 2020 at 10:44pm
More discussion on Twitter about possible deceleration in latest numbers, and move away from exponential to sub-exponential. There is talk about fitting quadratics, third degree polynomials, etc.

I think perhaps this is possible, if one could trust the numbers. I don't. I think they are published to create a narrative.

Here are some graphs to think about. The latter ones are from a paper which describes the exponential growth characteristics of epidemics. Pay particular attention to how Ro affects the expoential growth rate. Essentially, unless Ro is less than 2 some how, some way (whether by reduced transmission, quarantine, social distancing, vaccination, etc.) this is still going to be a very big problem in the months to come not only for China, but for the world.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5348083/

Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A Review
Gerardo Chowell,1,2 Lisa Sattenspiel,3 Shweta Bansal,4,2 and Cécile Viboud2








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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 05 2020 at 10:50pm
The decreasing percentage increases in daily China totals (likely from the severe quarantine of Wuhan and Hubei) perhaps are shown.

What if the rest of the world isn't ready for that type of extreme quarantine? Will Hong Kong become like Wuhan? Can it? What about San Francisco? Or Dehli?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 05 2020 at 11:06pm
Discussion that the numbers are staged:

"
@evdefender
Fraud investigator preparing for the Elon Musk congressional hearings. Tracking #coronavirus because Elon says it's the common cold.
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R^2 = 1.0000
@evdefender
·
7h
We finally overshot the Hubei #CoronaVirus predictions by a bit:

Feb. 5 Hubei Province

Cases: 19,665 (+2987)
Deaths:       549 (+70)

This marks the narrative's first reported decrease in daily acceleration.

Quote Tweet

R^2 = 1.0000
@evdefender
· 21h
From the Feb. 4 data, Hubei (1/31 regions) had 69% of "confirmed" Mainland #coronavirus cases.

Yet, Hubei model adjusts more than the full Mainland: harder prediction. 🤔

I'd post these for Hubei tonight to maintain narrative:

Cases: 20,218 (+3540)
Deaths:       562 (+83)
Show this thread
R^2 = 1.0000
@evdefender
·
6h
Feb. 5 Mainland China #CoronaVirus: A New Narrative!

Cases: 28,018 (+3694)
Deaths:       563 (+73)

The Good?:
Finally overshot a bit as it's the 1st time new cases less than previous day!

The Bad?:
It's all a goal seek on (-0Day) Mortality = 2.01%

Quote Tweet

R^2 = 1.0000
@evdefender
· 18h
Tonight's Mainland #CoronaVirus numbers posted 11 hours before the release if I were in charge of maintaining the narrative and leaning on the optimistic side as stated previously.

Let's hope I'm high this time.

Cases: 28,678 (+4,354)
Deaths:      578      (+88)
Show this thread
R^2 = 1.0000
@evdefender
·
6h
A major observation here is the mortality rate calculated on a day/day or (-0 Day) basis, which is wound very tightly around 2.01% regardless of fit on # of cases.

It has also been very steady with a slight decline seeking 2.0% since the narrative change Jan 27.

#coronavirus
R^2 = 1.0000
@evdefender
Tomorrow is Important:

Today marks the 1st day in the last 10 where I can't simply explain the point by a pre-determined quadratic.

It is therefore their 1st attempt at introducing some variability into the model or a shift in the narrative to begin a rollover."
https://mobile.twitter.com/evdefender/status/1225217509000761344?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 05 2020 at 11:09pm
"A. Fellow White
@huntedviva
·
6h
China's reported numbers from the #coronavirus is a joke. They fit perfectly in a quadratic function. Today's and yesterday's numbers were predicted perfectly by this model."

https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=coronavirus%20quadratic&src=typed_query&f=live

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 05 2020 at 11:25pm
@evdefender makes a great point. The numbers being reported are too perfect. That is, fit neatly into a quadratic of R2 = 1.00 (well, .995 or better).

In a moving chaotic situation such as this, the numbers shouldn't all fit perfectly on the curve!!!! They are totally managing the reported infections and the fatality rate to try to make it so that they can appear to have "won the battle" no matter the truth (or the dead bodies) on the ground. China has buried the truth (and the evidence, and millions of bodies) before, and they will do it again.

It's obviously a false narrative. China lies. It's what they do. I lived there.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 06 2020 at 9:27am
Let's see if this guy is correct in his prediction. We'll know in about eight hours.

--
"R^2 = 1.0000
@evdefender
·
4h
Feb 6 2020 Mainland China #CoronaVirus Predictions:

Similar to Hubei: I'm using a curve regressing to 0.9999 on the last 10 prints (Jan.27) while estimating that a narrative shift will make these high.

Cases: 32,180 (+4,162)
Deaths:      647      (+84)

Report in ~10.5 hrs."

https://mobile.twitter.com/evdefender/status/1225408294585393153

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 06 2020 at 1:29pm
Wishful thinking? Wrong conclusion based on a faulty assumption the data is correct?

--

https://mobile.twitter.com/d_voigtlaender/status/1225530773102628865

Dirk Voigtländer
@d_voigtlaender
The daily percentage increase in laboratoy-confirmed cumulated corona infections seems to decline by c.1%pt per day. Should this trends continue the number of new cases should peak mid February and hopefully be further reduced in the time beyond. #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 06 2020 at 4:23pm
Wow, evdefender has cracked the falsified numbers from China. Just below the modeled regression R squared = 0.9999 to appear like they are now "winning." It's all about the narrative. They will round people up, forced them into quarantine centers, so there are no more videos of dead bodies removed from apartments, and they can continue to falsify the true number of infected and dead. Whisk the dead quickly away to a crematorium.

his prediction is spot on. These numbers are fake. One thing I learned living in China for years, was basically everything was faked.

Prediction: imilar to Hubei: I'm using a curve regressing to 0.9999 on the last 10 prints (Jan.27) while estimating that a narrative shift will make these high.

Cases: 32,180 (+4,162)
Deaths:      647      (+84)

Report in ~10.5 hrs."
---

Actual:
---


Country,
Territory     
Total Cases     Feb 6
Cases     Total
Deaths     Feb 6
Deaths
Total
Recovered     Total
Critical     Region
China     31,161     +3,143     636     +73     1,541     4,820     As
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 06 2020 at 4:31pm
I wish our homeland security and cdc would pay attention to your spot on post which I mentioned 3 weeks ago that those numbers looked fishy compared to boots on the ground resources
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 06 2020 at 5:45pm
Third time trying to post due to internet interference. Perhaps my posts are getting some attention?

-

I already believe that US agencies are well aware of the underreporting of Chinese cases, esp. the CIA and DHS. That's their job, full of really smart analysts, who, perhaps like me, use a bit of critical thinking, common sense, and an understanding of Chinese culture and government habits (short story: they lie), to figure things out. Dr. Fauci even said today he believes the reported numbers are far below actual. The actions of the US, declaring an emergency, shutting air travel, preparing for pandemic, rushing testing kits, creating the Task Force, etc. show they really understand the threat.

The CCP doesn't believe anyone outside the party, ESPECIALLY outsiders and foreigners, have a right to know true internal data. There are two sets of books in a sense, the real, and the cooked. They do it with economic data, and they do it with other data. I learned after years of living in China many things are faked.

Anyway, we'll soon know the real situation, because the international numbers are starting to take off.

They also look exponential, with a doubling time at the moment of around 4 days, +/-2. Maybe a 3rd degree polynomial.

Internationally, we'll be at 300 in a day or two, and then 500 in around 3-4 days, and 1,000, in about 7-8 days, I fear. Then all bets are off where and when this is going to erupt.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 06 2020 at 6:30pm
Do you think it is following the same curve as Avian Flu in 2009. At the conference in DC today at 2 pm the Asian Dr mentioned that. She seemed to down play corona virus numbers out of China but said that a second wave in the Fall would be the one the US needed to prepare for
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 06 2020 at 9:02pm
Well, someone asked to make a bit of a prediction of cases internationally in the next 30, 60 , or 90 days. Of cousse, the way this virus transmits depends on the healthc are system surveillance and response, government infection intervention efforts, the density of the area it may be transmitting in, their hygiene, etc. etc. etc.

However, one estimate an expert is working with said that it's doubling every 5 days, roughly.

Well, we can simply take our current infections and then see what happens every five days, right?

Here's what could happen internationally:
Today: 270
5 560
10 1120
15 2240
20 4480
25 8960
30 17,920
35 35,940
40 71,680
45 143,360
50 286,720
55 573,440
60 1,146,880

In the US, there are currently 12 infections.
5 24
10 48
15 96
20 192
25 384
30 768
35 1536
40 3072
45 6144
50 12,288
55 24,576
60 49,182

While these figures don't seem "that" frightening, they do seem a bit ominous. Hence, while I think all the talk is of "delaying" and "preparing" for the possible pandemic.

I don't imagine the US getting to that high figure, that soon, at this time. I think that strong contact tracing, case identification, and other measures (that layered response they talk about) will pay off like it did for the SARS response.

That, and I have faith this President is going to take this very, very seriously and do what needs to be done.

Another really important point is that one expert (Dr. Neil) said maybe 25% of international cases have been indentified yet). Others may not be reconginized, or are/were mild cases, but still transmissable.

Also, remember the reported case severity of identified cases is about 25%.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 06 2020 at 10:31pm
Well, there appears to be some good news in the graphs and models I have found (below). Whether it's an artificial narrative, or reality, remains to be seen.

The real story is internationally at this point, I believe. Will it take off, is it taking off in some place at this moment?








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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 06 2020 at 10:52pm
EVDefender says he's fairly certain he understands the new Chinese narrative now.

Here's his pic. It basically says the new story coming out of China is that all is getting better and well, the country is going to get back to work soon.

Does anyone buy that story, if it comes out soon? As we have seen, China can certainly try to lock up all the potential cases and just cremate those who die, and hide the real figures.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 06 2020 at 11:04pm
It's apparently a new day in falsified data land...



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2020 at 2:35am
I agree with you Babycat, furthermore, the government is on a major propaganda campaign right now...slogans like fight the enemy, win the battle, sacrifice for victory etc:

   They are in a war.

   
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2020 at 5:58am
Originally posted by pheasant pheasant wrote:

I agree with you Babycat, furthermore, the government is on a major propaganda campaign right now...slogans like fight the enemy, win the battle, sacrifice for victory etc:

   They are in a war.

   

I agree with you both - I call BS...all those thousands of people standing in lines, waiting in hospital hallways etc should all be simmering into full blown cases pretty soon. Xi is a self inflated egomaniac...just saying...has WAY more concern about saving face (his!) then the people under his dictatorship rule!
If it's to be - it's up to me!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2020 at 6:02am
And me, I agree with all three.
ERCD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lonewolf Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2020 at 6:14am
Exponential growth over any long length of time need to take in account of seasonal variations as growth would depend upon outside temperature.
These viruses are seasonal dependent
   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2020 at 9:12am
Yes, the US is counting on holding through the first wave until summer.

--

Evdefender's number prediction for today:
EVent Horizon
@evdefender
·
6h
Feb. 7 Mainland China #CoronaVirus Predictions:

Cases: 34,022 (+2861)
Deaths:       696 (+59)

Similarly, am expecting to see them report more confirmation on the new Mainland trend. This is pretty vital to get things back to normal after the extreme containment measures."
https://mobile.twitter.com/evdefender/status/1225728923847274496

-

Remember, few experts believe these are actual numbers. They are Soviet style numbers meant for general consumption and pacifying the public. This is just a "story"


-
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2020 at 10:00am
International cases rising 18% day. I did a quick breakdown projection, where we might be in 30, 60, 90 days at that rate.

Day 1 326 (today)
2 385
3 454
4 536
5 632
6 746
7 880
8 1038
9 1225
10 1446
11 1706
12 2013
13 2015
14 2378
15 2806
16 3311
17 3907
18 4610
19 5440
20 6419
21 7575
22 8939
23 10548
24 12,447
25 14,6687
26 17,331
27 20,450
28 24,131
29 28,475
30 33,600
31 39,649
32 46,786
33 55,207
34 65,144
35 76,870
36 90,707
37 107,034
38 126,300
39 149,034
40 175,860
41 207,515
42 244,868
43 288,944
44 340,954
45 402,326
46 474,745
47 560,199
48 662,034
49 780,021
50 920,424
51 1,086,101
52 1,281,599
53 1,512,286
54 1,784,498
55 2,105,708
56 2,484,735
57 2,931,987
58 3,459,745
59 4,082,499
60 4,817,349

61 5,684,472
62 6,707,677
63 7,915,058
64 9,338,769
65 11,929,927
66 13,994,694
67 15,345,539
68 18,107,736
69 21,367,129
70 25,213,212
71 29,751,590
71 35,106,876
72 41,426,114
73 48,882,815
74 57,681,721
75 68,064,431
76 80,316,029
77 94,772,914
78 111,832,038
79 131,961,805
80 155,714,930
81 183,743,617
82 216,817,468
83 255,844,613
84 301,896,643
85 356,238,049
86 420,360,886
87 496,025,845
88 585,310,497
89 690,666,387
90 815,986,337

---

Conclusion: Would it hurt to be a little prepared for this, in case (God forbid), it happens like this?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pandemic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2020 at 3:44pm
Sky news are reporting approx 34,000 cases worldwide ( including 2841( Hubei new cases total there approx 25000) and 719 deaths globally so far. I've always believed that the lid can be held down for so long then the truth comes out!!!.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2020 at 4:25pm
Trend outside China is clearly exponential, while supposed trend now in China somewhat stabilizing. I don't buy it, especially the supposed death count.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2020 at 4:27pm




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2020 at 5:21pm
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