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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote interwebber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 1:22am

Thanks for all your work Babycat. Been trying to warn my family for months. Case case case, cluster cluster, Boom. Wish I had been more convincing with my own family. Everyone has their own adaptation abilities. Hoping the US and the world can handle what is coming...

If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 2:48am

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 6:43pm

Thank you all for your kind wishes. I was watching in horror as this unfolds, and now feel like I should have been writing letters to President Trump. As someone once said:

"Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Afterwards, it will seem everything we did was  insufficient. "

I could review some of the previous projections and how close they were, but it won't help us. It's exponential. That's it. That's what people need to f^$^ing understand. They are exponential because we humans are still spreading it, because we haven't done what is necessary not to. 

I'm heart-broken. 

Some new charts:

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 6:53pm

Adam Kucharski

@AdamJKucharski
 ·
New analysis from @cmmid_lshtm (led by @timwrussell) provides some rough initial estimates for the % of symptomatic COVID-19 cases that might have been detected/reported in different countries (focusing on those with >10 deaths)... 1/ https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/global_cfr_estimates.html
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 8:13pm

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 8:36pm

LOL, Stay The Fuck Home....LOL  Could not have said it better!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Glupa Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 9:42pm

STFH now joins YCFS as part of the aft lexicon. Spread the word!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 9:58pm

I agree!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2020 at 3:30am

STFH I like it!

ERCD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2020 at 6:09am

Babycat, can I have permission to post this chart on Facebook?  I have too many people that are STILL not getting it.  


Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gdeb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2020 at 6:29am

I would also like to post it if we may. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2020 at 6:48am

Open posting here, Mate!

ERCD
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The US will reach 100,000 #COVID19 cases & > 900 deaths by Friday, March 27, w/ doubling rates of 2.4 & 3.5 d, respectively. -> #1 in the world. Recall that South Korea & US had their 1st patient diagnosed on Jan 21/22 (within 24 hrs). The Δ for SK vs US was testing + tracing
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 5:52am

As I mentioned previously, the previous undertesting and now rapidly expanded testing has resulted in very rapid growth in number of reported US infections, which is  now slightly leveling. However, not sure what other areas of US are being under-recognized (Atlanta, New Orleans, Florida?) will look like in the near future. Some areas are still reporting lack of testing capacity (e.g. Santa Clara County)

Situation is very fluid, obviously, and a certainly uncertain. Projections are not certainties, and can change based on many factors.

PS. Concerned about Brazil, India. Even if a country can weather the initial wave, is this situation sustainable economically...countries will essentially have to significantly restrict travel for extended periods. Wordwide travel industry has essentially evaporated, in my opinion, and may likely be for the majority of the year. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2020 at 2:36pm

Sigh...100,000 US cases, March 27. Pandemics are terrible, terrible things. I never wanted to be wrong more than anytime in my life, nor want authorities to have heeded all the clear and ample warnings. This is the greatest policy failure in US history, even beyond 9/11, Vietnam, and anything else you could think of. 

I think I've decided I'm not going to do any more projections. 

America, and the world needs to pull together, and fight as one. Smash this fucking virus!

I never thought I'd see all the movie scenes like this come true in real life. 

The 2020 Pandemic will change where folks live and how they live. https://twitter.com/robnesbittnews/status/1243629480138215426 


https://twitter.com/BrianRoemmele/status/1243633976092160000

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2020 at 6:59pm

That report from RI is way more dramatic than it seems.  Apparently lots of rich NYers have houses in RI.  If not they're AirB&Bing it and scooting to a low infection area. This concerns RI authorities that they're bringing Covid-19 with them.  They're not being arrested.. just registered to ensure that they quarantine for 14 days before going out and about.  As NYC is the epicenter... I can't say RI authorities are wrong to require this.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2020 at 10:07pm

I agree, a reasonable precaution. If it was China, they' have been dragged into a while can. "while everybody was Kung Fu fighting.  " ;)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2020 at 12:16am

Babycat, don't stop doing your projections - it's just starting to get interesting.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2020 at 6:27am

Dear God. We're in the middle of a Category 1,000 hurricane right now. I'm looking for good news, and it's hard to find.

This really is SARS-2 I believe, as in 2019-nCoV-Sars2, like it was before, but with increased infectiousness orders of magnitude higher.I'm becoming concerned that China was really blowing smoke about CFR. Might really be closer to 7-10%. I'll create a new thread. I've been watching this for a while now. Increased testing capacity in US should give better figures in denominator of CFR. 

Look:

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2020 at 6:36am

Live updates (free) here:

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2020 at 9:07am

My new "go to" site for daily graphs, for every country, both log and linear scales, updated daily. 

https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ 

VISIT to see YOUR COUNTRY.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2020 at 11:27am

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

US cases, half-way through 3/19, are at 13,671...And, as I have been projecting since about 72 cases, we're seeing proof of significant under-testing of existing cases, which we are now rapidly identifying (finally!)

Unfortunately, the trajectory towards 100k by 3/27 strengthened considerably and as I mentioned is most certainly already "baked in"

We'll most likely see the casualty minimums (6,000) I explained before. Now is the time we need to Shut.It.Down.  and Test.Everybody. 

Chart with today's partial data:


By the way, nailed this from the 19th. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2020 at 11:28am

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

I'll just leave these here...

re-posting from the 19th

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2020 at 11:30am

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

Originally posted by roni3470 roni3470 wrote:

So the significant rise is due to increased testing.  I think we will have 5 or so more days of sharp increase, then a level off then a drop.  We have to think about this positively.  If we are all SIP the rise has to stop at some point.  right?

The data as of tonight with 19,648 US confirmed has moved the 100K date from March 27 to March 26 (projecting 110,000 by end of March 26), but I'm not ready to call that earlier yet because of the rapid expansion of testing and the possible effect of earlier social distancing in WA and other places. I think there are still some testing bottlenecks, such as with collection swabs, testing pipettes, or providers/states out of kits, so it's not out of the question the rapid increases may continue for more than a few days. I think a leveling off will come with the social distancing measures we are doing, but I'm concerned they are not enough, in not enough areas, and behavior hasn't changed enough in some areas so it may take longer and may not be as pronounced.  I think there are still some unrecognized hotspots in other states besides WA, NY, and CA. Time will tell, though. 

From the 20th.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2020 at 11:35am

updated

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updated

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2020 at 12:00pm


I hope this trend continues. Perhaps it is limited by testing capacity. But America needs to shut down all non-essential activity at the same time. We are repeating the mistake of Italy, trying to believe that regional lockdowns will work (Wuhan's worked because it was centrally located, and tiered - city, province, country). We have many, many hotspots. It has be simultaneous, and coordinated, otherwise it will be necessary for longer. Like fighting a fire, we have many little fires we need to deal with. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2020 at 12:38pm

But then again, there's this from a real epidemiologist, not one from a guy who just stayed at a Holiday Inn Express four weeks ago. 



Suggest watching using the linear scale option https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ The US is on a trajectory to entirely overwhelm health systems- more drastic action is essential.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2020 at 2:37pm

Wow. The UK, US and Spain are really shooting up there. They are on such a steep trajectory.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2020 at 3:17pm

Babycat, Thank you...blistering information, can I be selfish for a second. Can you post a projection for growth for florida?

Im asking for some personal reasons, as to some extended family situations, and I'm trying to calculate 7-10 days out.....if you can.

The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Dr. Larry Brilliant, epedemiologist, just said on CNN in three months projections are for 85,000 US dead. Peaking mid-to late April.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2020 at 3:59pm

Originally posted by pheasant pheasant wrote:

Babycat, Thank you...blistering information, can I be selfish for a second. Can you post a projection for growth for florida?

Im asking for some personal reasons, as to some extended family situations, and I'm trying to calculate 7-10 days out.....if you can.

Sure. I too have family there. This is just a projection. It may or may not happen. This is just the general data trend, right now. At some point, the line will bend, due to our physical distancing and other measures. When, and how much I do not know. However, given Florida's haphazard lack of consistent measures and to this moment lack of statewide general population measures other than dine-in restaurants/bars, mandating 14-day for NY arrivals, and now this emergency alert, received today, I think the curve will bend more slowly and less strongly than in other states with earlier and stronger interventions. 

Also, if you know Florida, this news portends of a catastrophic development. PRAY.

If it spreads there, it will be an unimaginable disaster. 

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/03/27/coronavirus-spreading-in-the-villages-1269421


P.S. You can track Florida by county here:

https://www.fox13news.com/track-florida-coronavirus-cases-by-county-with-this-interactive-map

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2020 at 9:13pm

Some thoughts I may have mentioned, but will repeat and/or elaborate. 

There will be a great difference in effect of the pandemic on low, middle, and high income countries. 

I fear that no matter how hard they try to "socially distance" in India for example, this virus will eventually surge through the population, leaving millions of bodies in it's wake. People just won't have the luxury of time, money, or distance, nor access to enough medical care in sufficient proportion. The US likely withstand this first wave and be able to go through a series of tightening and loosening as necessary (with massive testing of everyone eventually) but other countries won't be able to do this at scale or in time. I believe it's already more extensive than acknowledged or generally known. Japan has been hoping and praying, as well as under-testing, and now, like the US, may not be able to hold back the flood. One of the main reasons we haven't seen Japan explode yet is a cooperative population who wear masks. The US, for a small but significant portion, is not cooperating nor is mask wearing common.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 29 2020 at 7:34am

Pheasant, sorry to say this, but Gov. DeSantis has made, and will make the situation far worse. He's a danger to public health, in my opinion, a complete idiot and political lackey. 

See https://twitter.com/MaryEllenKlas/status/1243981251138158593

Not sure if this is true:

https://twitter.com/gwengreenenergy/status/1243985507182354434

"Harvard Global Health Institue: FL less than 70,000 beds. Report says in Florida: 700,000 will contract Covid 150,000 will need hospitalization    30,000 will need ICU / ventilators FL has 6,000 ICU beds w/ 23 counties having NONE! WHERE ARE THE BEDS WE NEED? "

---

Did some brief research here: https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/covid-hospitals

Seems they are taking very, very pessimistic views of eventual spread, at the most optimistic base case of 20% of US gets infected over 12 months. Hmmm. Not sure what to think. If we start seeing an undeniable second wave in China, despite their news suppression and propaganda, all bets are off.

P.S. You can follow Florida (and other states) here: https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 29 2020 at 2:11pm

One of the first clear academic epidemic projections made public. Funny thing, that. Why are we not seeing more models being made public? I think you all know the answer to that. 

Fear. Fear of being wrong, fear of inciting panic. Cowards those.

Just so it's clear. Projecting 457,311 US by April 4. Pretty close to mine. Again, we'll see who's closer.

P.S. Those numbers at the bottom are the exponential factor. The Us is at 35%, which I think is a little high. Maybe around 32-25%% for next week and then sliding thereafter for this wave. 

But still, even topping out at 400,000 to 500,000 on the upside, means double that on the downside...So, 800,000 to 1,000,000 US cases, from which if CFR is 4%, we'll see 32,000 to 40,000 deaths very soon...Or, as Dr. Fauci says, 100k-200k deaths are possible.  It's going to be bad.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 29 2020 at 2:30pm

Yes this is most likely correct!  What do all of the people here think was going to happen in a Pandemic?  This one is at least not that bad.  80% of people are still able to keep electricity, water, and sewer running, food still being delivered, needed PPE and vents which all other Presidents left an empty cupbard, and these items still being delivered by truckers, pilots  and  dock workers so get real folks.  This is not going to get better for 2 more months and this is NOT THAT BAD compared to what could have happened.  We need to quit wringing our hands and start getting out there on the net and getting people to STAY THE FUCK HOME!

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Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

Yes this is most likely correct!  What do all of the people here think was going to happen in a Pandemic?  This one is at least not that bad.  80% of people are still able to keep electricity, water, and sewer running, food still being delivered, needed PPE and vents which all other Presidents left an empty cupbard, and these items still being delivered by truckers, pilots  and  dock workers so get real folks.  This is not going to get better for 2 more months and this is NOT THAT BAD compared to what could have happened.  We need to quit wringing our hands and start getting out there on the net and getting people to STAY THE FUCK HOME!

Mostly agree. It could have been a slate wiper. Relatively not that bad. 

But could have been a lot better if better handled, which is was not. 

Yes, convince idiots to stay home, otherwise we'll all have to stay home even longer. I saw videos of New Yorkers exercising playing etc in public NY parks, people still on Florida beaches, etc. Disgustingly selfish. Shame them all. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 29 2020 at 3:00pm

People who are out doing anything but getting food, drugs, gas, or going to a doctors are STUPID!   STAY THE FUCK HOME!  These are the same people who are out that whine and complain not enough is being done, or done fast enough.  Have any of you owned a manufacturing company.  Well, my late husband and I did and we made a machine less complicated than a vent and I can tell you these people are getting manufacturing up fast.  It all takes time folks you expect President Trump to pull Vents out of his butt!!!!!  You all need to get real on how long it takes to up manufacturing,  supply of raw materials alone takes time!!! What you think the raw materials were just sitting there on site waiting for this Pandemic!

You all need to do a reality check when you think everything happens at a snap of a finger!  IT TAKES TIME!  

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