Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese  Click to Translate to Myanmar (Burmese)

PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
123456
Forum Home Forum Home > Main Forums > General Discussion
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Exponential Pandemic Model
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

Exponential Pandemic Model

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
Message
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 63537
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Exponential Pandemic Model
    Posted: January 05 2022 at 9:22pm

DJ My idea of Exponential Pandemic Model (EPM) is based on two other ideas;

-Exponential Climate Change, now main motor did become methane release most from the Arctic

-The Fire-triangle, fuel-oxygen-temperature as basic ingrediënts

In the Exponential Pandemic Model you also need three (main) factors;

-Disease

-Hosts

-Transport

Diseases are believed to be increasing due to climate change, unbalancing of ecosphere...Animals losing habitat, feeding ground and unable to catch up with the speed of change become more vulnerable.

Hosts give room for virus, bacteria etc. to spread. Human population getting close to 8 billion increases risks for humans.

Transport is getting the disease to the host...

What is causing pandemics is an unbalance in one or more of these three factors...

In the present pandemic ;

Massive (air)transport did bring both humans-and other species-to places in numbers unseen in history. Not only catching disease-CoViD-19-but also further spreading it into a number of hosts unseen in history. 

In a "normal/balanced" scenario Diseases/Hosts/Transport keep eachother in balance; D/H/T=1

In an exponential model all three "go wild"....

-Diseases mutate so they can spread more easy into more hosts

-So hosts in the present pandemic will soon be most non-human hosts

-Transport over long distance did start this pandemic, but the disease does no longer need long distance transport...it can spread nearby..

D/H/T=endless...allmost.

Diseases; some claims there would be a limit to variants...unclear why ? Mutation/recombination may end the old-"starter"-virus but it is replaced by that many new ones the pandemic only gets worse.

Hosts; no longer just humans...but number of mammals and birds that may catch a corona virus disease is in the trillions.

Transport; did go from Wuhan (most likely to start with) to around the globe, but once it did get that widespread variants only may need meters to go to a next host...

What can be the goal of an Exponential Pandemic Model ? 

Seeking steps for interventions. 

Transport; STOP THE SPREAD may run out of possibilities, time is the other factor...once the disease did manage to "get everywhere" intervention for transport has to be in shielding, isolation, masks etc. 

Mass vaccination-also on a level unseen in history-is supposed to offer protection. Did a good job in protecting against severe disease for the few that did get vaccinated in time...The disease is not-yet-in every corner of the Earth...so some people did not meet the disease...

Non-human hosts did see "the mink problem-spread" ending up killing all the farm-minks in DK, NL...but there is a limit to what we can do in wildlife...bats do have lots of corona virusses...CoViD virus spread a.o. to US/Canada deer. (How ill do they get from it ? Problem is CoViD-virus spread in deer and-likely-from deer into yet other species). 

So where are we now ? 

Since Omicron exploded millions of new-tested-cases per day...."hopium" the disease will get milder...not even stopping most airtravel transporting variants around the globe. Resulting in lots of more new variants, recombinations...

What is needed-sorry to say very unlikely to happen-is an international plan to stop this pandemic using ALL the tools we have ! 

On an optimistic note; I still believe we can end/limit this pandemic this year if we did make a decission to do so ! But the longer we wait the harder it gets...



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
KiwiMum View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: May 29 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 25905
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2022 at 12:09pm

There's no chance that international travel will stop, economies are too dependent on it. It comes down to that well known trueism that we all want rules to apply to other people but not to ourselves because we're special and deserve an exemption. We all want other people to be limited to save the planet etc etc but we don't want to be inconvenienced ourselves. It's madness Josh but there it is. 

Personally I think global rationing should be introduced. Each man, woman and child should be given a quota of travel, clothing, imported foods, petrol, new electronic goods, new phones and the like, and when they've used it up, they just have to wait until their next allocation. Just like in WW2. That would slow down consumption, and disease transfer.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 63537
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2022 at 9:59pm

Good thinking, the basic point I wanted to make is human(re)actions matter...we can influence how this pandemic worsens...

Distribution for some goods-maybe better quality/technical rules...An e-phone/smartphone getting outdated within a few years is not durable...If you make it that way you only need to change some parts to get an "updated smart-phone" it would be cheaper and more durable...

The other point however is "numbers" ; almost 2 million deaths in 2020, would we have 4 million deaths in 2021-now just 3,5 million because of actions-like vaccines ?  Would 2022 bring us 8 million deaths, 2023 16 million ? What is acceptable and for who ?  

What mix of interventions would be most effective ? How long it can take to bring numbers down to a level "we can live with"...

Would we have to accept life expectancy to drop from something like 85 to 65 in some rich countries ? Child-deaths going up to 19th century level numbers ? (If you organize a country towards 19th century standards is this pandemic NOT the outcome of those-immoral-choices ?)

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down