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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

First wave to last until summer

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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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    Posted: March 27 2020 at 4:28am

This applies to Finland, but I am sure the principles can be applied to other countries.  [YLE is the national broadcasting company]  Note that they are using the language of "first wave" helping people to get used to the idea that this virus could be around for a long time.

Originally posted by "YLE" "YLE" wrote:

The duration of the novel coronavirus pandemic -- or at least its first wave -- is likely to last at least until the middle of summer in Finland, according to a new analysis.

The Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) has been working with different universities to try and model the likely duration of the outbreak in Finland. Social Affairs and Health Ministry permanent secretary Kirsi Varhila presented the results of that work on Yle's A-studio discussion programme on Tuesday.

"At best we are talking about 120 days -- so we are looking at a scale of three to four months," she declared.

According to the analysis, the first week of the epidemic was counted as the beginning of March; 120 days from that takes the calculation to end of June-early July.


Also of note the play off between the number of cases at any one time verses the length of the outbreak

Quote A shorter duration for the epidemic would also mean more people contracting the virus during the peak of the outbreak. According to Varhila, it would be better to extend the time frame to prevent overburdening the public healthcare system, possibly to 160 days or until the end of summer.

Varhila pointed out however that the data she presented was a forecast. She added that limitations on large gatherings have already improved the projections in the model. But she added that it would be another two weeks before the impact of social distancing measures could be calculated.  

There is more discussion on the effect (or lack of effect) due to warmer weather.

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carbon20 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2020 at 5:41am





think it will be around for a long, 

long time........

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2020 at 6:08am

I too think it will be around for a long time, possibly changing like the common cold.....I think I am healthy enough that I have a very good chance of surviving if I do get it, but wonder just how many rounds would finish me off!  


I think we need to get used to looking forward to having fewer retirement years than we would have expected before this virus hit.  It is not the slate-wiper, but it will change society in a profound way.

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