Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Bird flu cluster-Indonesia |
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seesthelight
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 28 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 194 |
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Posted: February 15 2006 at 4:27pm |
Indonesia concerned about bird flu cluster cases Indonesia concerned about bird flu cluster cases Edited by seesthelight |
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Angel
Valued Member Joined: December 08 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 346 |
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From the Rsoe Havaria Emergency Information Service: The Indonesia Senior Health Minister states they have 5 cluster cases which refers to infections amoung people who live in close proximity to each other. More cluster cases usually means there has been a genetic mutation or change. Which means human-to-human transmission is near.
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Angel
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7Strong
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 30 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 68 |
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I also thought it was interesting that the WHO has now updated the timeline on their site and are saying the cases in China cannot be linked to sick poultry.
I tried to link it but can't.... sorry. |
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Smaug
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 06 2006 Status: Offline Points: 67 |
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I have a bad feeling that Indonesia will soon be ground zero for H2H transmission. I would encourage everyone on this board to accelarate thier preparations.
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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Yes, they are preping us for what they already knew 2 months ago and cannot hide the truth anymore. H2H.
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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Guests
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7Strong, The WHO site is way out of date. Their latest H5 headline is from the 14th. Their other stories are from the 13th. See the 2 sites below for up-to-date info. Also, go to Google, choose News and enter H5N1. You can also set up an automatic capture of 9 stories per search term, for example "H5N1 and schools" or "human-to-human". The stories can be viewed by date of publication. Google searches 4500 news sources continuously. See these 2 for more good stuff: http://www.newsnow.co.uk/newsfeed/?name=Bird+Flu Information and knowledge cure the jitters. |
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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Search This WHO=World Governments + CDC=A$$HOLES
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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endman
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Status: Offline Points: 1232 |
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I think the government thinks that panic is worst that the pandemic and that why all this
misleading information about the bird flu. Last time this happened in 1918 it killed 50 mill people but it probably sickened 500 mil. You can’t run and you can’t hide. We all go to work and school. Just think about US will save billons in Social Security and pension. There will be plenty of jobs available for those who survived. You can work from home. We all will die eventually, why not in the Big pandemic of 2006. |
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7Strong
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 30 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 68 |
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Thanks Doug for the additional sites.
I do know that the WHO site is usually way out of date but there is a timeline that is pretty interesting and they just updated it. I was able to paste it below. Scroll down to the entry for February 13th 06. I think they too are questioning possible H2H
H5N1 avian influenza: timeline 15 February 2006 Previous events in Asia date animals humans 1996 Highly pathogenic H5N1 virus is isolated from a farmed goose in Guangdong Province, China. 1997 Outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 are reported in poultry at farms and wet markets in Hong Kong. Human infections with H5N1 are reported in Hong Kong. Altogether, 18 cases (6 fatal) are reported in the first known instance of human infection with this virus. Feb 03 Two cases of H5N1 (one fatal) are confirmed in a Hong Kong family with a recent travel history to Fujian Province, China. A third family member died of severe respiratory disease while in mainland China, but no samples were taken. Wave I date animals humans Mid-03 H5N1 virus begins to cause outbreaks in Asia, but these go undetected and unreported. Dec 03 Two tigers and two leopards, fed on fresh chicken carcasses, die unexpectedly at a zoo in Thailand. Subsequent investigation identifies H5N1 in tissue samples. This is the first report of influenza causing disease and death in big cats. 19 Dec 03 Republic of Korea confirms highlypathogenic H5N1 as cause of poultry deaths at three farms. 8 Jan 04 Viet Nam reports H5N1 in poultry.11 Jan 04 Viet Nam identifies H5N1 as the cause ofhuman cases of severe respiratory disease with high fatality. Sporadic cases are reported through mid-March. 12 Jan 04 Japan reports H5N1 in poultry.23 Jan 04 Thailand reports H5N1 in poultry. Thailand reports two laboratoryconfirmedcases of human infection with H5N1. Sporadic cases are reported through mid-March. 2 24 Jan 04 Cambodia reports H5N1 in poultry.27 Jan 04 Lao PDR reports H5N1 in poultry.1 Feb 04 Investigation of a family cluster of cases, which occurred in Viet Nam in early January, cannot rule out the possibility of limited human-to-human transmission. 2 Feb 04 Indonesia reports H5N1 in poultry.4 Feb 04 China reports H5N1 in poultry.20 Feb 04 Anecdotal evidences suggests H5N1 infection in a single household of domestic cats in Thailand. 18 March 04 Research1Case studies of 10 patients in Viet Nam point to close contact with infected poultry as the probable source of infection in most cases, but conclude that, in two family clusters, limited human-to-human transmission within the family cannot be ruled out. Mid-March 04 Reports of human cases end. In total, 12 cases (8 fatal) occurred in Thailand, and 23 cases (16 fatal) occurred in Viet Nam. Wave II date animals humans Jun/Jul 04 China, Indonesia, Thailand and Viet Nam report recurrence of H5N1 in poultry. 8 Jul 04 Research2Research identifies the dominant Z genotype in poultry, considers possible role of wild birds in spread, and concludes that H5N1 has found a new ecological niche in poultry, but is not yet fully adapted to this host. 13 Jul 04 Research3Research shows that H5N1 has become progressively more lethal for mammals and can kill wild waterfowl, long considered a disease-free natural reservoir. Jul 04 Research4A case report is published indicating atypical human H5N1 infection in Thailand (from March 04), with fever and diarrhoea but no respiratory symptoms. The report suggests that the clinical spectrum of disease may be broader than previously thought. 3 23 Jul 04 Japan announces control of the H5N1 poultry outbreak and is considered disease-free by OIE. 7 Aug 04 Malaysia reports H5N1 in poultry.12 Aug 04 Viet Nam reports 3 new human cases, allfatal. Dates of hospital admission are from 19 July to 8 August. 20 Aug 04 Research5Chinese researchers report preliminary findings of H5N1 infection in pigs. No evidence suggests that pig infections are widespread, and the finding appears to have limited epidemiological significance. 2 Sept 04 Research6Research shows that domestic cats experimentally infected with H5N1 develop severe disease and can spread infection to other cats. Prior to this research, domestic cats were considered resistant to disease from all influenza A viruses. 7 Sept 04 A 4th fatal case is reported in Viet Nam. 9 Sept 04 Thailand confirms a fatal case of humaninfection. 21 Sept 04 Republic of Korea announces control of the H5N1 poultry outbreak and is considered disease-free by OIE. 28 Sept 04 Thailand confirms 2 further human cases. 4 Oct 04 Thailand confirms 4th human case. 11 Oct 04 Outbreak begins in zoo tigers in Thailand said to have been fed chicken carcasses. Altogether, 147 tigers out of a population of 441 die or are euthanized. 22 Oct 04 Highly pathogenic H5N1 is confirmed in two eagles illegally imported into Europe (Brussels) from Thailand. 25 Oct 04 Thailand confirms 5th and final case in second wave. 29 Oct 04 Research7Research confirms that domestic ducks can act as silent reservoirs, excreting large quantities of highly pathogenic virus yet showing few if any signs of illness. Nov 04 No further human cases are reported. Altogether, 5 cases (4 fatal) occurred in Thailand, and 4 cases (4 fatal) occurred in Viet Nam in this second wave. 4 Wave III date animals humans Dec 04 Poultry outbreaks ongoing in Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam and possibly also in Cambodia and Lao PDR. 30 Dec 04 Viet Nam reports a new case.3 Jan 05 Malaysia (Peninsular) announces control of the H5N1 poultry outbreak and is now considered disease-free by OIE. 6 Jan 05 Viet Nam reports 2 further cases. 14 Jan 05 Total cases in Viet Nam rise to 6. Sporadic cases continue to be reported over the coming months, making Viet Nam the hardest hit country. 27 Jan 05 Research8Research concludes that a girl in Thailand probably passed the virus to at least her mother in Sept 04, causing fatal disease. This is the first published account of probable secondary human transmission, resulting in severe disease, of any avian influenza virus. 2 Feb 05 Cambodia reports its first human case,which is fatal. 17 Feb 05 Research9Research retrospectively identifies at least one fatal atypical case in Viet Nam (from Feb 04), presenting with diarrhoea and encephalitis, but normal chest X-rays. 29 Marc 05 Cambodia reports its 2nd case, also fatal. 12 Apr 05 Cambodia reports its 3rd case, also fatal. 30 April 05 Wild birds begin dying at Qinghai Lake in central China, where hundreds of thousands of migratory birds congregate. Altogether, 6,345 birds from different species die in the coming weeks. 4 May 05 Cambodia reports its 4th case, also fatal. 8 June 05 China reports poultry outbreak in Xinjiang Autonomous Region. 5 30 Jun 05 A WHO investigative team finds no evidence that H5N1 has improved its transmissibility in humans in Viet Nam. 6 Jul 05 Research10Research on viruses isolated from dead birds in Qinghai Lake suggests the outbreak was caused by a new H5N1 variant that may be more lethal to wild birds and experimentally infected mice. 14 Jul 05 Research11Research on viruses isolated from dead birds in Qinghai Lake demonstrates transmission of the virus among migratory geese and suggests that the virus may be carried along winter migratory routes. 15 Jul 05 Tests on three civets that died in late June in Viet Nam detect H5N1, marking the first infection of this species with the virus. The endangered Owston’s palm civets were raised in captivity; source of infection is unknown. 21 Jul 05 Indonesia reports its first human case.Infection in two other family members is considered likely, but cannot be laboratory confirmed. Subsequent investigation is unable to determine the source of infection. 23 Jul 05 Russia reports outbreaks of highlypathogenic avian influenza, subsequently confirmed as H5N1, in poultry in western Siberia. The outbreak spreads to affect 6 administrative regions in Siberia. Dead migratory birds are reported in the vicinity of outbreaks. 2 Aug 05 Kazakhstan reports an outbreak ofhighly pathogenic avian influenza, subsequently confirmed as H5N1, in poultry in areas adjacent to Siberia. Dead migratory birds are reported in the vicinity of outbreaks. 5 Aug 05 Viet Nam now has 64 confirmed cases in the third wave, of which 21 were fatal. 10 Aug 05 China reports outbreak in Tibet Autonomous Region. 12 Aug 05 Mongolia reports the death of 89migratory birds at two lakes. H5N1 is subsequently identified in these birds. 16 Sept 05 Indonesia confirms its 2nd case. 6 22 Sept 05 Indonesia confirms its 3rd case. 29 Sept 05 Indonesia confirms its 4th case. Research 12Research describes the clinical features of H5N1 infection and reviews recommendations for the management of cases. Oct 05 Research13Research on the evolution of human and animal viruses circulating in Asia in 2005 suggests that several amino acids located near the receptor-binding site are undergoing change, some of which may affect antigenicity or transmissibility. 6 Oct 05 Research14, 15Research describes reconstruction of the lethal 1918 pandemic virus, concludes that this virus was entirely avian, and finds some similarities with H5N1. 10 Oct 05 Indonesia confirms its 5th case. 13 Oct 05 Highly pathogenic H5N1 is confirmed in poultry in Turkey.15 Oct 05 Highly pathogenic H5N1 is confirmed in poultry in Romania.19 Oct 05 China reports its first poultry outbreak since August 2005. Several new outbreaks are reported in the coming weeks. 20 Oct 05 Taiwan, China, reports the detection of highly pathogenic H5N1 in a cargo of exotic songbirds smuggled from mainland China. Thailand reports its 1st new case since 8October 2004. 23 Oct 05 Highly pathogenic H5N1 is confirmed in an imported parrot, held in quarantine in the UK, that died 3 days earlier. 24 Oct 05 Thailand and Indonesia report more cases. 26 Oct 05 Croatia confirms H5N1 in wild birds.9 Nov 05 Viet Nam reports its first new case sinceJuly 2005. 16 Nov 05 China reports its first two cases.23 Nov 05 China reports its third case. Sporadic cases continue to be reported in the coming weeks. 29 Nov 05 China reports more fresh outbreaks in poultry. Since mid-October, 25 outbreaks have been detected in 9 provinces, resulting in the culling of around 20 million birds. 5 Dec 05 Ukraine reports its first H5N1 outbreak7 in domestic birds. 11 Nov 05 Kuwait detects highly pathogenic H5N1 in a single migratory flamingo, marking the first report of this disease in the Gulf region. 27 Dec 05 Turkey reports a fresh outbreak in the eastern province of Igdir 5 Jan 06 Turkey reports its first two human cases.Sporadic cases continue to be reported in the coming weeks, but rapidly end. 23 Jan 06 Turkey reports poultry outbreaks in 11 of the country’s 81 provinces. 30 Jan 06 Iraq reports its first human case.2 Feb 06 Iraq reports its first outbreak of H5N1, inbackyard flocks in same province where human case detected. 8 Feb 06 Nigeria confirms H5N1 in chickens – thefirst detection of this virus in Africa. 9 Feb 06 Azerbaijan confirms H5N1 in migratorybirds. 11 Feb 06 Bulgaria, Greece, and Italy confirmH5N1 in wild birds (swans). 12 Feb 06 Slovenia confirms H5N1 in a wild bird(swan). 13 Feb 06 China reports its 12th case and 8th fatality. Many of these cases occurred in areas with no reported outbreaks in poultry. Indonesia reports its 25th case and 18th fatality. 14 Feb 06 Iran confirms H5N1 in wild birds(swans). Austria confirms H5N1 in wild birds(swans) Germany confirms H5N1 in wild birds(swans). 8 References 1 Hien TT et al. Avian influenza A (H5N1) in 10 patients in Vietnam. N Engl J Med , 2004,350:1179–88. 2 Li KS et al. Genesis of a highly pathogenic and potentially pandemic influenza virus in eastern Asia. Nature 2004; 430: 209–213.3 Chen H et al. The evolution of H5N1 influenza viruses in ducks in southern China. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2004; 101: 10452–57. 4 Apisarnthanarak A et al. Atypical avian influenza (H5N1). Emerg Infect Dis 2004; 10: 1321–24. 5 Verbal report at WHO international consultation. 6 Kuiken T et al. Avian H5N1 influenza in cats. Published online by Science: www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1102287 7 Issued (prior to publication) on WHO website: Avian influenza – situation in Asia: altered role of domestic ducks, 29 October 2004; available online at: http://www.who.int/csr/don/2004_10_29/en/index.html 8 Ungchusak K et al. Probable person-to-person transmission of avian influenza A (H5N1). N Engl J Med 2005; 352:4 333–40. 9 De Jong M et al. Fatal avian influenza A (H5N1) in a child presenting with diarrhea followed by coma. N Engl J Med 2005; 352:7 686–91. 10 Liu J et al. Highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus infection in migratory birds. Science 2005. Published by Science online at: www.sciencemag.org/cgi/contents/abstract/1115273 11 Chen H et al. H5N1 virus outbreak in migratory waterfowl. Nature 2005; 436: 191–92. 12 Writing Committee of the World Health Organization (WHO) Consultation on Human Influenza A/H5. N Engl J Med 2005; 353:13 54–65. 13 World Health Organization Global Influenza Program Surveillance Network. Emerg Infect Dis 2005; 11: 1515–21. 14 Taubenberger JK et al. Characterization of the 1918 influenza virus polymerase genes. Nature 2005; 437: 889–93. 15 Tumpey et al. Characterization of the reconstructed 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic virus. Science 2005; 310: 77–80. |
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