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LaRo
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Posted: February 15 2009 at 10:02am |
I think we have a ways to go before we really start feeling the effects of a depression. Tuesday we have the new stimulus bill, which is suppose to create millions of jobs. Don't expect this type of results. If any jobs are created they will be short term. I believe tuesday is also the day GM and Chrysler have to come up with their plans on how to stay in business. The best they can do is bankruptcy and start over.
So far we haven't had bank closures or reorginizations via bankruptcy court but they will be coming. Expect another $1.5 trillion dollar bank bail out bill and that won't be enough. The sooner we bite the bullet and let the banks that are in trouble (and they caused this mess in the first place) go under, the quicker we will get thru this crisis.
Personal problems, as you watch your neighbors loose their houses and they go into foreclosure, most likely they had a pocket full of credit cards and all of them will also go into default, so the problem is being compounded.
The shopping centers are loosing tenants and that is money the owner is loosing and it becomes harder and harder for them to make the mortgage payment, so as the slow down accellerates, so will commercial foreclosures.
Really exciting history in the making. We can read about the 30's depression and now we have a front row seat.
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LaRo
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Posted: February 15 2009 at 12:34pm |
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4623525/Failure-to-save-East-Europe-will-lead-to-worldwide-meltdown.html
Interesting article.
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cgh18
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Posted: February 16 2009 at 6:42am |
I wonder how any plan can help the "middle class' ( poor) that is so slanted to bailing out the wealthy. It could have been worse if the other guys go their tax breaks in the bill through.
The overseas un employments rates are also scary many countries are facing 20% + , so it is only a matter of time before our #s go up.
8 years of buffonery didn't help much, Driving up the national debt. during "good times", only come bck to haunt you during the current crisis in spades.. When the dollar sinks to nothing and un-employment checks run out, times will get extremely hard for most. The hand writing was on the wall but fools "rushed" in.
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Turboguy
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Posted: February 16 2009 at 9:08am |
Bam! Another one right out of the park for Laro!
I'd like to add that not only did they start this mess but are compounding it! When the people can't even afford to pay off the compounding interest how can any "Stimulus Package" get people spending on anything but that interest? This monstrosity isn't going to stimulate anything but hyperinflation...
They need to look at the reasons we're where we're at instead of just throwing money at their political buddies.
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Suzi
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Posted: February 16 2009 at 11:37am |
Rome fell and we will also. All of this play by play discussion is distracting us from the real goal. Like the frog being boiled one degree at a time. Prep. Prep. Prep. Get ready to take care of yourself and defend yourself.
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MelodyAtHome
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Posted: February 16 2009 at 1:52pm |
I almost feel like "they" whoever the "puppetmasters" are WANT this country to fail. Am I the only one who feels this way?
Melody
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Melody Emergency Preparedness 911 http://emergencypreparedness911.blogspot.com/
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Dr.Who
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Posted: February 16 2009 at 4:00pm |
cgh18 wrote:
I wonder how any plan can help the "middle class' ( poor) that is so slanted to bailing out the wealthy. It could have been worse if the other guys go their tax breaks in the bill through.
The overseas un employments rates are also scary many countries are facing 20% + , so it is only a matter of time before our #s go up.
8 years of buffonery didn't help much, Driving up the national debt. during "good times", only come bck to haunt you during the current crisis in spades.. When the dollar sinks to nothing and un-employment checks run out, times will get extremely hard for most. The hand writing was on the wall but fools "rushed" in. |
8 years of spending by the Bush administration caused this mess but somehow even more massive spending by the Obama administration is going to solve it. (and I am sure that the "buffoonery" and increase in the national debt did not cause the many other countries that are also experiencing a financial downturn to have one.) To me it makes no sense to blame the spending on the one hand for causing this and then to hope that more spending is going to solve it. I do not believe our gov is capable of forestalling or stopping recessions. If they were we would not have them, on average every 11 years, would we?
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Posted: February 16 2009 at 7:35pm |
Suzi wrote:
Rome fell and we will also. All of this play by play discussion is distracting us from the real goal. Like the frog being boiled one degree at a time. Prep. Prep. Prep. Get ready to take care of yourself and defend yourself. |
Very true. We should rename the theme of the bill to Great Expectations. Tomorrow will be pedal to the metal though - this is one of the first real tests for the new administration now in its first 100 days. As stated earlier, this has been tried before in Japan with dismal effects in the 90s. There will be a lot of focus on those little red numbers at the top of this page after this is passed. Of course, as with all things, anticipation can only hold the fort up so long. it has been said by top economic experts any real lasting effects must be done with cash infusion over time. Quick fix cash, will give us a newspaper fire versus a good pine log. The irony is the prepping may help keep you from starving from no money to buy food because of lost work and a bad economy as opposed to a raging flu Pandemic. Disappointment is a heavy hitter, and to really reach out there for a comparative - The Jews (first use of this word in a post- and it is not negative) were looking for a warrior to lead them in a rebellion against Roman domination. So as Jesus entered Jerusalem, there was the shout "Hail, King of the Jews." This most certainly upset the powers that were, and so in 3 days - well - it wasn't but 3 days or so, from palm branches and shouts of adoration to the cross. The love of the masses is predictably fickle except to the most seasoned and successful torch carriers. Let us hope this one burns much brighter than expected. Crowds can turn nasty when they feel a bait and switch, and if they were expecting salvation and get more grief - things may get ugly in the old Gallup world. Nixon was elected with one of the most sweeping popular vote landslides in American history. So enough of between the lines for now. It was not the horse I would bet on based on earlier races. If it comes racing out from behind, just like the team in the 4th quarter in the Super Bowl - so fine by me. I am not holding my breath. Its a long way to the end zone. And some mean interference in between. Medclinician Prepping sounds like real good advice. Then at least we won't be hungry as we watch the show.
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LaRo
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Posted: February 16 2009 at 10:33pm |
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
Something is going on tonight. Markets seem unsettled and gold has rissen substantially.
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MelodyAtHome
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Posted: February 16 2009 at 10:43pm |
LaRo, I haven't been keeping up with how much gold is but are you saying it went up substantially just tonight? How much? Going to click the link you posted now. Thanks for updating us.
Melody
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Melody Emergency Preparedness 911 http://emergencypreparedness911.blogspot.com/
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LaRo
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Posted: February 17 2009 at 6:00am |
gold can easily be tracked at www.kitco.com. It looks like about $25 up. overnight.
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MelodyAtHome
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Posted: February 17 2009 at 1:39pm |
Thanks LaRo!
Today was a bad day...again. I hear Chrysler laying off 3000, California laying off 20,000! Yikes!
Melody
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Posted: February 18 2009 at 5:51am |
Everyone is avoiding the D word. But there is one thing very clear.
Things are not good and they appear to continue to deteriorate. A quick
look at the Dow will show it at 7552. Finally it has stumbled more
seriously, and approaching the 7100 which would signal in some ways, a
crash. Truly wish these people could subtract. It was at 7600
yesterday - there has been almost 300 drop which would put it at 7300
and well - this phenomena eludes me. . But hey, I'm not the
economist. Just the messenger, and why don't we look to the big boys on
Wall Street and some serious and sobering statements in which could be
(another cringe statement) It was the best of Times it was the worst of
Times. People who know about this stuff are concerned. The trend is -
it's coming. >posting< http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/16/business/16econ.html?_r=1
Published: February 16, 2008
A fresh batch of data released on Friday revealed an economy in distress, as
manufacturers struggled, import prices rose, and consumer confidence continued
to erode.
Peter E. Kretzmer, senior economist at Bank
of America. “Given what was happening in the financial markets this week,
the vibes aren’t that good.”
Import costs grew last month at the highest annual rate since the Labor
Department began keeping records in 1983, primarily because of surging oil
costs.
Here's a real ray of sunshine ... not.
“This is just horrible,” Ian C. Shepherdson, the chief United States
economist for High Frequency Economics, wrote in a research note. “The sustained
volatility in the markets, the rise in energy and food prices and, of course,
the catastrophe in the housing market, is making consumers extraordinarily
miserable.”
comment: people are not buying the hype are spin that its just
another bump in the road. Despite feverish efforts to sooth the
concerned American - it is working.
A closely watched measure of consumer confidence, the Reuters/University of
Michigan survey, fell to 69.6 in February, the lowest reading since February
1992. It stood at 78.4 in January.
comment: That is near 8% in one month. Since time is brief and writing must continue.. maybe check out the link. Now we wait to see if the 'plan' and the bailout are going to help. We can speculate and quote experts, but it is the American people who have the power to believe or not believe, and it is only a growing confidence of the people- that things will even start to get better. Gold and Silver - especially gold is a good investment. I have been told people cannot legally own gold. I have a friend who has a gold mine and keeps a lot of laced ore and also buys a lot of gold coins.
Medclinician
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cgh18
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Posted: February 18 2009 at 6:32am |
LaRo wrote:
gold can easily be tracked at www.kitco.com. It looks like about $25 up. overnight.
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Gold was approx 500$ in 2005-6. So it is basically up 100%. Stocks went down approx 50%. So if you sold 1000$ worth of stocks and and brought 2 ounces of gold, You would have 2000$ in gold while your stocks would be worth approx 500$. So that seems like 4X to me.
Kitco prices are just a spot price, silver generally sells for 2-5$ over spot and gold approx a + 5-10% premium. I know American silver eagles sell at a large premium due to scarcity and demand at approx 20$ each.
Even at todays' prices very soon they could look like very cheap , very soon. CH
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Posted: February 18 2009 at 8:18am |
cgh18 wrote:
[QUOTE=LaRo] gold can easily be tracked at www.kitco.com. It looks like about $25 up. overnight.
Gold was approx 500$ in 2005-6. So it is basically up 100%. Stocks went down approx 50%. So if you sold 1000$ worth of stocks and and brought 2 ounces of gold, You would have 2000$ in gold while your stocks would be worth approx 500$. So that seems like 4X to me.
Kitco prices are just a spot price, silver generally sells for 2-5$ over spot and gold approx a + 5-10% premium. I know American silver eagles sell at a large premium due to scarcity and demand at approx 20$ each.
Even at todays' prices very soon they could look like very cheap , very soon. CH |
Cgh - question. I was talking to coin dealers in California some time
ago and just from a few visits to coin shops, it appears that they
certainly don't like to buy gold coins when the price is high as it is,
and will sell - but you pay more than the normal price.
Is there anything backing the American dollar since we have gone off
the gold standard? Is it truly just paper in one sense of the word and
good only as long as other countries continue to value it. Also heard
the Euro is taking a hit as well. Maybe the Amero is not that far off.
This is a kind of whispered thing that has been discussed. For those
completely unfamiliar with "the Amero" this might be interesting.
One of the best kept secrets. The public has not been informed at all on this. The following is highly controversial and almost unknown to the American public. Classically I would post this. I found it interesting. I neither support nor even affirm this will become a reality, and yet the money transfer which can be traced was very real.
So... just for information
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hiPrsc9g98this is for entertainment value only... right. But the is 1.2 trillion dollars in a Chinese bank account to support the initialization of this currency.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amero"Amero" redirects here. For the falsely convicted teacher, see Julie Amero.
The North American Currency Union is a theoretical economic and monetary union of the three principal countries of North America, namely Canada, the United States, and Mexico.[1]
Implementation would probably involve the three countries giving up their current currency units (U.S. dollar, Canadian dollar, and Mexican peso)
and adopting a new one, created specifically for this purpose. The
hypothetical currency for the union is most often referred to as the amero.[2][1] The concept is modeled on the common European Union currency (the euro), and it is argued to be a natural extension of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America (SPP).
Conspiracy theorists
contend that the governments of the United States, Canada, and Mexico
are already taking steps to implement such a currency, as part of a "North American Union (NAU)".[1]
No current members of any country's government have officially stated a
desire to create such a body, nor introduce a common currency as part
of this concept.[3][4] NOTE to readers: I am including a fair share of clickable links. The more incredible - the more documentation and research that is needed. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=7854The concept of a North American currency has not
only been the object of discussion within powerful big-business think
tanks, but has, in fact, been discussed in government positions. In May
of 2007, Canada’s then-Governor of the Bank of Canada, David Dodge,
said that, “North America could one day embrace a euro-style single
currency,” the Globe and Mail reported. Further, the article
stated that, “Some proponents have dubbed the single North American
currency the ‘amero’,” and further, “Answering questions from the
audience after a speech in Chicago, Mr. Dodge said a single currency
was ‘possible’.”16
In November of 2007, the Globe and Mail
reported that, “Canada should replace its dollar with a North American
currency, or peg it to the U.S. greenback, to avoid the exchange rate
shifts the loonie has experienced, renowned money manager Stephen
Jarislowsky told a parliamentary committee yesterday,” and quoted
Jarislowsky as saying, “I think we have to really seriously start
thinking of the model of a continental currency just like Europe.”17comment: one could go on. Its all over the net, but not the media. It is not discussed widely because it is one solution to the unthinkable. If the American dollar collapsed or was so hyper-inflated that we wound up like Zimbabwe. Such thing do happen. In Zimbabwe their currency utterly and totally collapsed. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1819727,00.html It is unlikely and in the words of some impossible that the American dollar would ever spiral downward in this fashion. Yet, IMHO while those who hold big money in accounts and do not want it devalued to pennies are going to battle fiercely to maintain the illusion all is not well with our economy. And since that is an illusion which cannot hope to be spun, its companion is the "bump in the road." The spin factory has learned a new technique. That is when you don't like a word being applied to a situation i.e. What is a level 4 alert for Avian by WHO - or what is hi-path or a dangerous strain (you see, still aware here we are on an Avian Flu Talk site) what do you do? Redefine the term. Years ago high path was 20-30%. So you boost it up to 50 something percent and you can declare an outbreak low path and they will keep selling poultry. This is not a pretty sight in the economic world. Changing definitions and intricate explanation with (Alice's Restaurant) circles and arrows on the back- cannot obscure job loss, dropping confidence, and what is this with Japan is in a Depression - the D word. Well, said one guy one Wall Street, they have been living on the edge for a long time since the dismal 90s. Japan is certainly not insignificant to the total U.S. economy and two days ago their economic system took a nose dive. Are we really in a Depression? - survey says - yes in parts of America - we are. Medclinician
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LaRo
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Posted: February 18 2009 at 8:47am |
The new amero, would it be backed by anything or just another piece of worthless paper that we all pretend is worth something, another ponzi scheme?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2009/feb/11/zimbabwe-gold-panning-starvation-food
The link is a little disturbing but you should be able to take it. These people have learned what paper money is really worth.
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Posted: February 18 2009 at 8:51am |
Unemployment in the current crisis
Unemployment
is rising – job losses are up 30% in the US and 50% in the UK since
2007. How bad will it get? This column uses data on unemployment
inflows and duration to predict labour market trends. A conservative
estimate says that unemployment will reach at least 5% in Britain and
13.5% in Spain.
With
the US economy officially in recession and other major economies set to
follow suit, the spectre of rising unemployment once again occupies the
minds of policymakers and media pundits alike.
At any point in time, many workers flow into and out of the
unemployment pool. It is well-understood among economists that changes
in the rate of unemployment among developed economies are underpinned
by substantial changes in these unemployment flows (Marston 1976; Blanchard
and Diamond 1990). Recent research has identified a clear pattern in
times of recession. Increases in unemployment are preceded by a rise in
unemployment inflows as jobs are destroyed, followed by a rise in the
duration of unemployment spells as workers fail to quickly find new
jobs.
A natural question, then, is whether the recent ramp-up in US
unemployment has evolved any differently. Despite many similarities
with previous recessions, the rapid inflow of workers into unemployment
during the current downturn confirms that this is one of the most
severe recessions in recent US history. http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3071Well, the California jobless rate is not at 7.6% it is at 9% http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/23/news/economy/california_jobs.reut/SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) -- California's unemployment rate jumped to
9.3% in December from 8.4% in November and 5.9% a year earlier as job
cuts swept across most industries, with recession tightening its grip
on the most populous U.S. state, officials said Friday. California's
December jobless rate marked a 14-year high for the state and was
significantly higher than the month's national average of 7.2%,
underscoring a surge in job losses over the last three months of 2008,
said Patti Roberts, a spokeswoman for the state's Employment
Development Department. reality: Some pretty solid voices including President Obama as well as Bloomfield - a major player and data source - has this to say Millions more U.S. workers are likely
to lose their jobs after the economy’s freefall sent unemployment
in January to the highest level since 1992 and payrolls tumbled,
reinforcing the need for an economic stimulus plan. >posting<
Christina Romer, chairman of Obama’s Council of Economic
Advisers, said yesterday “the unemployment rate could reach
double digits” without a stimulus, in a statement after the jobs
report.
Obama yesterday said the nation faces “an urgent and growing
crisis.”
Yesterday’s report showed factory payrolls fell by 207,000,
the biggest drop since October 1982, after declining 162,000 in
December. Economists had forecast a January drop of 145,000. The
decrease included a loss of 31,300 jobs in auto manufacturing and
parts industries.
News of job losses continued this week. PNC Financial
Services Group Inc. will reduce almost 10 percent of its
workforce by 2011, and Estee Lauder Cos., the maker of Clinique
and Bobbi Brown cosmetics, will slash 2,000 jobs over the next
two years.
Government jobs are now also in jeopardy. The U.S. Postal
Service said it plans to trim headcount through attrition and
early retirement, and has asked lawmakers to allow it to reduce
its six-days-a-week delivery schedule to pare expenses.
parts of this report were written by Shobhana Chandra in Washington. For the full article and information go to http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7jpCSt.gQoM&refer=home
Medclinician
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cgh18
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Posted: February 18 2009 at 6:46pm |
Cgh - question. I was talking to coin dealers in California some time ago and just from a few visits to coin shops, it appears that they certainly don't like to buy gold coins when the price is high as it is, and will sell - but you pay more than the normal price.
If the question is why coin dealers don't like to buy,, It's because they fear fluctuations. The coin dealer I used to deal with tried to buy common bullion for 5-10% under spot and sell that day to be melted. he would sell at 5 % over on common bullion type stuff. he was one of the few that was honest enough to pay premium for rare coins.
But remember people in any bussiness remember old prices and are leary of new costs. It kinda like the home owner that says she remember paying 20K for her home way back when and wonders why the 30K bath room remodel or roof job costs so much now. The person who I know that sold silver for 7-8$ per coin in 2005 thought that was high and wondered about return on investment also.
If the question is about the US fiat currency ( paper money) it is only as good as people's faith in it and it's buying power and devaluation rate. I said before " any good finacial advisor should tell you to have 10 or more percent in precious metal. It is a universal currency and keeps all your eggs out of one basket. If you can't afford any or want to hold dollars and stocks that's your perogative. I guess I'm too chicken to put all my ducks in that row.
If you want to sell it, Ebay is a good place to sell, look at the prices on Ebay, they are real world prices and they seem to sell very well.
How can a country print trillions and not expect the money to buy less? And who's pocket did all the lost trillions go? Those are my questions. There is an answer in my book : Got Gold??????
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Posted: February 18 2009 at 11:27pm |
and its just got 401 points to lose.
It will lose 80% not just 50% in my view
We are going into a depression
Noticed your thread Kilt2 and you are right.
Our lab is closing today and unable to get the financial backing to
survive 2008, our corp is not dead, but it is going into a coma.
I have made arrangements to relocate our HQ to a MUCH humbler location
so I can hold on to the Internet, finish the book, and hole up with
family to hunker down. To be blunt, we are shutting down our business.
So in a way we have lost our job. A few clients will make the trek to
privately visit us, but bye bye cool lab, we can no longer afford you.
As Truman was it said, when your neighbors loses his job its a
recession, when you lose your own it is a depression. Today, in a
sense, I lost mine.
As a small business we simply could not get any support financially to
keep us afloat. There were no programs except for nearly useless tax
breaks and anything but raw capital to keep us afloat.
So we downsize to a miniscule shadow of our former selves and i don't care what the numbers say - we are in a depression.
People, bill collectors, everyone is getting hungry and pressing hard
to collect collect - and now I will have to prep for a larger group of
people than before. With a whole lot less to do it with.
Water is cheap after you boil it and filter out the toxins as best you can.
It is 2:10 a.m. and I think of Macbeth or was it Hamlet when someone said "thou has murdered sleep."
Small businesses, hang it up. Help from the state or feds, smoke and
mirrors. It is all about jobs- you supply a hundred jobs which cost you
how much - and then you might get a token handout.
We needed people to work on more orders and the way things are messed up now, we could not afford to hire them.
At 60, let me tell you, this is not the time to deal with a depression.
Did you know the state tax people are stopping refunds in some states?
Dismal.
When I started this thread, I did not seriously think we would actually go into a depression.
Hey, if any of you know of any of the money in that new package to help us small business- please clue us in.
I think that part got cut. The one we needed the most.
There was this woman closing her shoe store after 50 years in business.
I got a pair of VERY good shoes for $15. The kind that would have cost
hundreds for 5% of what they were worth.
The lady cried. She could hardly sell the last of her inventory or talk.
Awfully quiet today after the big signing of the bill. For the first
time in 6 issues or whatever the cover of Times was a little different.
Poor little Skye, our son. The innocent who has no clue what daddy and mommy are about to go through.
Somehow, as long as there is an Internet, I will find a way to access it and post what is happening - what is really happening.
Medclinician
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cgh18
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Posted: February 19 2009 at 3:47am |
Most people are too set in there ways to realize or reinvent them selves when times change. My grand mother owned tenaments in NYC and was on her way to being very wealthy before the 39 crash, after that she was cleaning floors in the houses rich people.
The way most have frittered away their money on all the new and better toys, they won't have a pot to pee in if things continue the way it's going. A saying that comes to mind, " The kid that won't eat his vegetables today , will be licking the can's lid tomorrow."
I see all the parent's buying their kids every expensive item they want, when they really should have worried about saving to insure that their belly would be filled in tough times when the sky is falling.
It's a big game of kick the can and blame the other man.
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cgh18
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Posted: February 19 2009 at 5:10am |
Quote: Is there anything backing the American dollar since we have gone off the gold standard? Is it truly just paper in one sense of the word and good only as long as other countries continue to value it. Also heard the Euro is taking a hit as well. Maybe the Amero is not that far off. This is a kind of whispered thing that has been discussed. For those completely unfamiliar with "the Amero" this might be interesting.
My quotes!
" It seems to me the backing was taken off the backs of the common man."
" The only sure backing is to go back to basics"
" When you listen to the average stock broker, You will surely go broke. "
" During average times, being average is good enough, when the going gets tough, you better be exceptional."
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Hotair
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Posted: February 19 2009 at 12:48pm |
I am so sorry, Med.cgh,you are correct in how we reinvent ourselves by taking just ANY job and not ones in our field. As I said, we will get though this but I really wonder what we will look like on the other side.Hopefully, we as a people will have learned a thing or two.
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LaRo
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Posted: February 19 2009 at 5:07pm |
Med, i'm sorry to hear of your troubles. I hope you will continue with this site, i have always enjoyed reading your comments.
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r we there yet?
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MelodyAtHome
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Posted: February 19 2009 at 5:17pm |
There have been many success stories after people have lost their jobs...usually starting their own business....lawn service, handyman, flea-markets(yes flea markets;O)
or whatever else one is talented doing...If you can't find a job...create your own:O) It won't be easy but it can be done.
Melody
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SouthTexas
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Posted: February 19 2009 at 7:15pm |
MC,
You're an RN? Transfer your license to Texas and come join me in South Texas. I know of 5 RN positions open now! EAsy work, $55k per year, and great benefits. Lots of land (getting cheaper), good gardening soil (can't eat gold), and mild weather (ok-sometines hot). I'm a little younger than you but our children are the same age. You are welcome.
ST
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The Lord be magnified.
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MelodyAtHome
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Posted: February 19 2009 at 7:18pm |
Wow...MC take SouthTexas Offer! That sounds awesome!
You are a good person ST!
Melody
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Penham
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Posted: February 20 2009 at 6:13am |
South Texas is a great place to live! We were stationed there twice when DH was in the Navy, the second time we chose to go there again because we liked it so much the first time around (chose it over Hawaii and CA, DH is from CA and he hates it there and I already lived in Hawaii 3 years when my dad was military). We lived in Aransas Pass which is near Corpus and Port Aransas, we were stationed at NAVSTA Ingleside.
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Posted: February 20 2009 at 2:46pm |
SouthTexas wrote:
MC,
You're an RN? Transfer your license to Texas and come join me in South Texas. I know of 5 RN positions open now! EAsy work, $55k per year, and great benefits. Lots of land (getting cheaper), good gardening soil (can't eat gold), and mild weather (ok-sometines hot). I'm a little younger than you but our children are the same age. You are welcome.
ST |
Tempting stuff. I was in San Antonio at Ft. Sam Houston Medical http://fshtx.army.mil/sites/about/default.asp before we were shipped to Ft. Bragg with orders for Vietnam. Pretty city. Looks like we can hold on to our Internet- I mean depression or not - there are some things which are essential - computer - internet - Taco Bell. Looking at the Dow today - we are definitely headed for 7100. Will save that for a different post - Even the Texas desert is kind of interesting.. there was another base in El Paso. We trained with German pilots during the war. El Paso wasn't so bad- except you couldn't go far out past the big mountain (big hospital on that one- great food for the military) They will always need nurses. I never regretted getting my RN. And more than ever when the Pandemic hits. Medclinician
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purplepanther
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Posted: February 21 2009 at 12:49pm |
I was talking to my grandma today and she is 91 yrs. and so she lived through the great depression was telling me she thinks we are in a depression because of the jobs lost of course there were alot of more people now than then.So we could say we are in a deep recession.
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Elver
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Posted: February 21 2009 at 4:47pm |
GDP declined the past 2 quarters. This is a clear sign that our economy is in decline.
Q1/08 11,646.0
Q2/08 11,727.4
Q3/08 11,712.4
Q4/08 11,599.4
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LaRo
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Posted: February 22 2009 at 8:02am |
Treasury will be looking for 1.5 trillion to bail out the banks again. No end in sight. It's time to stop throwing good money after bad. Shut them down and let the recovery begin.
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r we there yet?
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LaRo
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Posted: February 22 2009 at 8:03am |
Treasury will be looking for 1.5 trillion to bail out the banks again. No end in sight. It's time to stop throwing good money after bad. Shut them down and let the recovery begin.
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r we there yet?
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cgh18
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Posted: February 22 2009 at 8:58am |
One of the commentators I say suggested to let the big banks ( with toxic assets) fail and give the money to small banks and credit unions loan out the money since they seem to know how and who to lend to. That sounds like a plan to me.
One local bank lent some $ to a person I do business with, they made sure all the Ts were crossed and the Is dotted and they actually check the books and the building that they gave the money for every year. No funny business allowed! And this was done 3-4 years ago when other banks gave loans and lied about their worth.
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cgh
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Dr.Who
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Posted: February 23 2009 at 6:15am |
Letting failing banks actually fail is good for the economy. When a business is going under other businesses will perform better and also buy the assets of the failing bank at a greatly discounted price. When the dust settles we are left with only business that are performers and they have made an additional profit to boot. It doesn't hurt the consumer since their loan is sold to another bank at the same terms. In fact it helps the consumer because the new owner of their loan is a better company. Sure the consumer may have to travel farther to get to the bank, when they visit, because there are now less banks, but haven't we all notices that there is a bank on every corner. There are way to many of them.
IMO. Drug stores are next.
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Wishbone
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Posted: February 23 2009 at 11:50am |
ALDI IS HANGING IN THERE:
UPDATE: Aldi to open more stores in US & UK
German discount supermarket chain Aldi will open at least 75 US stores this year, more than it has in the past. The new stores, including Aldi's first in New York City, will have more fresh produce, higher ceilings and more windows to help the 1600 sq m locations feel more open.
Aldi has virtually saturated the German market, where an estimated 90% of households shop at its stores. Aldi is looking to open four to six new stores in the Northeast this year to join the grocer's 47 stores currently open in the region.
Aldi additionally plans to open 25 stores in the Dallas-Fort Worth (Texas) area in 2010, including new construction, conversions of spaces in existing shopping centers and former free-standing Albertsons and Super 1 Foods stores.
Historically one barrier to Aldi's US success is the fact that 95% of products sold at its stores are the retailer's own brands. According to the Nielsen Co., store-brand goods generally make up just 22% of US food sales in terms of unit volume.
Currently there are nearly 1,000 Aldi stores operating in 29 US states.
Meanwhile, back in Europe, Aldi announced a £1.5billion package to open a store a week, creating more than 1,200 jobs. The German no-frills supermarket will build 50 branches giving it more than 500 across the UK and Ireland. Each one will take on 25 workers with 1,250 hired this year - the same number of staff fired by Marks & Spencer this month.
http://www.foodinternational.net/articles/news/1567/update-aldi-to-open-more-stores-in-us-uk.html
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Wishbone
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Posted: February 23 2009 at 11:58am |
MEIJER STORES ARE SOOO SLOW, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE INTERNET SALES WILL DO WELL:
E-commerce booming by Meijer
A year after unveiling its e-commerce site, Meijer will now begin offering grocery and dry good items bought in bulk from www.meijer.com in its "Grocery by the Case" programme. Unlike existing online grocery services that charge a delivery fee, Meijer will offer free shipping for orders of US$150 and more.
This marks the third innovative grocery program that the US retailer has introduced in the past three months. Recently, Meijer began test-marketing a personal shopping program called Grocery Express that enables shoppers to order groceries online and have them personally delivered to their car at the local Meijer parking lot.
This past summer, the company launched Meijer Mealbox, a web-based widget that allows customers to plan a week's worth of meals in minutes by providing access to thousands of Meijer recipes, ingredients, coupons and special promotions.
A recent study by Forrester Research found that consumers spend approximately US$6 billion annually for online purchases of food, beverage and grocery items. The study also projected that online grocery sales will more than double (US$13.7 billion) within the next four years.
"Grocery by the Case" is a very user-friendly and easy-to-navigate site that makes for a smooth online shopping experience," said Rob Fleener, vice president of marketing and e-commerce for Meijer. "Coupled with the fact that we'll be the only major player offering free shipping, this service will certainly be well received by our customers."
http://www.foodinternational.net/articles/news/1529/e-commerce-booming-by-meijer.html
THERE ARE A FEW BRIGHT SPOTS OUT THERE.
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Posted: February 23 2009 at 12:18pm |
Elver wrote:
GDP declined the past 2 quarters. This is a clear sign that our economy is in decline.
Q1/08 11,646.0
Q2/08 11,727.4
Q3/08 11,712.4
Q4/08 11,599.4
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Elver, this site and some of the posters who know about economics have been my primer over the last few years. One thing I kept hearing over and over was that the GDP was a true solid indicator of the real deal. I was told the Dow fluctuates, although it seems to be fluctuating rather intensely and downward. Since it started dropping from 8000, which seemed to be some kind of sanctuary point, it looking more dismal. Ironically, most of what I post included sizable quotes from experts and informed people. No one is saying its alright, a lot are saying we might improve it, but we need a lot of money to that. The one thing that I have not heard yet, and anyone in the media is free to use this... is what we have done RIGHT in the last 3 decades that made our economy improve. This would be much more productive than continuing to repeat tired solutions which did not work in other countries. Obviously in the 60s and late 70s - something was going right. That is when I made my first million and I was certainly not alone. 1981 however, was like the last blast of the horn around Jericho. As in treating patients, or any endeavor, we need to focus on what has worked in the past, if we have a comparable present which is not so different, it won't work. We need to examine the track records, the achievements and especially legislation proposed and passed by every congressman - those who helped us and those who hurt us. Most of all, we need to look at who passed legislation that help our country as a whole, rather than a specific area, and bills which help only a single company or entity. This is important, for as the money is given to each state, it is more than a hand out to pay bills - it is money to invest in areas which will stimulate the economy. It amounts to this. If you give to a charity (Sally Struthers in some Latin American country who frowns and says 'this is hell') and only 5 cents of the money goes to helping and 95 cents goes to the organization, who is making money and who is really getting the most help. We have institutionalized help to the point where the jobs created are those made in the institution and executives, and little else is done. This is a flaw which we must really look for in any recovery package. Money flowing to infrastructure as opposed to actual jobs created and funds lended to the people. Our quagmire is that we have become lendaholics and to help you must lend to those who need it and give them the jobs to pay back the loans. Medclinician
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Elver
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Posted: February 23 2009 at 9:06pm |
This article is quite disturbing.
I think that everyone on this forum should stock up on dehydrated food. Regular canned food doesn't last more than a couple of years, while dehydrated foods can last 10-25 years depending on how cool it's stored. There will be a food shortage.
I have 2 orders in with 2 different dehydrated food companies. One order is delayed for 6 weeks & the other company is delayed 4-5 weeks.
They could't give me exact ship dates because of the "panic buying" right now.
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Posted: March 01 2009 at 9:24am |
6.2% drop in U.S. GDP surprises economists
Raises likelihood recession will drag on into 2010
By Alia McMullen, Financial PostFebruary 28, 2009 comment: so much for the bump in the road.
The U. S. economy is in a deeper recession than many of the most pessimistic
economists had expected, increasing the likelihood the downturn will drag on
well into 2010.
Gross domestic product shrank by an annualized 6.2% in the fourth quarter of
last year, according to revised figures released yesterday by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis. A downward revision from the preliminary estimate of a 3.8%
contraction reported at the end of January was largely expected. But many
economists were left gobsmacked by the magnitude of the drop, which was the
largest since the first quarter of 1982. The consensus had forecast a reading
closer to 5.4%.
The revisions were caused by worse-than-estimated contractions in consumer
spending, which dropped 4.3%, compared with a preliminary reading of 3.5% in the
quarter, and exports, which plummeted 23.6%, compared with the preliminary
reading of 19.7%.
"We are in the midst of the worst recession in the post-war period, even
factoring in the massive stimulus program," said Nariman Behravesh, a chief
economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Mass. He said the recently enacted
US$787-billion government stimulus package would have "virtually no impact" on
improving consumer spending and business investment in the first half of the
year. Even then, he said the best outcome would be for 0% growth in the third
and fourth quarters of 2009.
Jennifer Lee, an economist at BMO Capital Markets, said the dismal end to
2008 set the stage for the economy to shrink a further 5% in the first quarter.
This would result in the largest three quarters of decline in GDP since
1958.
The accelerating rate of economic decline has given increasing credibility to
those forecasting a deep and drawn out recession, such as Joshua Shapiro, the
chief U. S. economist at MFR in New York.
"We continue to look for a recession that is both longer and deeper than
those in recent memory, persisting at least through the entirety of this year
and into the early part of 2010," Mr. Shapiro said. "While we cannot rule out an
economic bounce sometime during the coming year, this would prove to be a false
dawn, probably in reaction to some sort of temporary government-administered
stimulus."
The bad news does not stop there. Mr. Shapiro said the downturn would be
accompanied by a period of deflation, which is a painful drop in consumer prices
that erodes the value of money.
"Eventually, 2011 or beyond, a flood of dollars will probably result in
higher inflation, which will solve some problems and create others," he
said.
While the economic future remains clouded, what is certain is that U. S. GDP
will remain weak in the first quarter of 2009.
"Although consumer spending will not drop as rapidly in the first quarter,
both capital spending, residential investment and inventory investment will
likely decline just as faster or even faster. This suggests first-quarter GDP
will also shrink very rapidly," said Steven Wood, the chief economist at Insight
Economics in Danville, Calif. He expects the economy to contract 4.5% in the
period. Medclinician comment: GDP and jobless rate will signal when are truly in a Depression, although the euphemism 'severe recession' is likely to be used quite frequently when we are actually in a Depression.
Medclinician
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Posted: March 11 2009 at 12:27pm |
Okay we are sliding toward a Depression and some areas are already in one.
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AFP/Getty Images/File – Unemployed
construction workers demonstrate outside the offices of a Los Angeles lawmaker
in California. …
WASHINGTON – Four states — California, South Carolina, Michigan and Rhode
Island — registered unemployment
rates above 10 percent in January, and the national rate is expected to
hit double digits by
year-end.
The U.S. Labor Department's report on state unemployment, released Wednesday,
showed the increasing damage inflicted on workers and companies from a
recession, now in its second year. Some economists now predict the U.S.
unemployment rate will hit 10 percent by year-end, and peak at 11 percent
or higher by the middle of 2010.
In December, only Michigan had a double-digit jobless rate. One
month later, four states did and that doesn't count Puerto Rico, which saw its
unemployment rate actually dip
to 13 percent in January, from 13.5 percent in December.
California's unemployment
rate jumped to 10.1 percent in January, from 8.7 percent in December, as
jobs have disappeared in the construction, finance and retail industries.
Michigan's jobless rate jumped to 11.6 percent in January, the highest in the
country. The second-highest jobless rate was South Carolina at 10.4 percent. Rhode Island was next
at 10.3 percent, which marked an all-time high for the state in federal records
dating to 1976. California rounded out the top four.
Forty-nine states and the District of Columbia registered unemployment rate increases.
Louisiana was the only state to record a monthly drop. Its unemployment rate
fell to 5.1 percent in January from 5.5 percent in December.
The U.S. unemployment rate, released last week, rose to 8.1 percent in
February, the highest in more than 25 years.
Employers are laying off workers, holding hours down and freezing or cutting
pay as the recession eats into sales and profits.
Disappearing jobs and evaporating wealth from tanking home values, 401(k)s
and other investments have forced consumers to retrench, driving companies to
shrink their work forces. It's a vicious cycle in which all the economy's
problems feed on each other, worsening the downward spiral.
And more layoffs are on the way. National Semiconductor Corp. said Wednesday it will
lay off 1,725 employees, more than one-quarter of its work force, after
third-quarter profits fell 71 percent.
Industrial conglomerate United Technologies Corp., which makes Otis elevators
and Sikorsky helicopters, said Tuesday it will lay off 11,600 workers, or 5
percent of its work force. Dow Chemical Co. on Monday said it would cut 3,500
jobs at chemical company Rohm & Haas Co. as part of its $15 billion buyout
of the company.
President Barack Obama has
urged Americans to be patient, saying it will take time for his economic revival
and job-creation programs to bear fruit.
Obama is counting on a multipronged assault to lift the country out of
recession: a $787 billion stimulus
package of increased federal spending and tax cuts, a revamped bailout
program for troubled banks and a $75 billion effort to stem home foreclosures.
Nationwide, the recession has claimed a net total of 4.4 million jobs since
December 2007, and has left
12.5 million people searching for work — more than the population of Pennsylvania.
The state unemployment report also showed that North Carolina and Oregon —
along with South Carolina —
notched the biggest monthly gains of 1.6 percentage-points each.
North Carolina's rate soared to 9.7 percent in January, from 8.1 percent in
December, while Oregon jumped to 9.9 percent, from 8.3 percent.
Meanwhile, Georgia's jobless
rate climbed to 8.6 percent in January, an all-time high on federal
records.
On a brighter note, Wyoming continued to register the lowest unemployment
rate — 3.7 percent. Medclinician
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Posted: March 14 2009 at 12:46pm |
We haven't quite made the depression mark yet, although there are areas
of the U.S. that are edging delicately close. Personally, we are
locating to a new building, one a little smaller and within our current
means, but we are not out of the ring yet. Good
to be back - we have been working 17 hours a day to be sure we stay
afloat and since areas we work in would probably still continue to be
profitable even through a full scale depression, thus far, we are
still treading water. No doubt we are looking at a coming
storm which gets nastier and darker by the day, but we are certainly
not in the 1934 scale of things where unemployment was 20-25% and up to
29% in Canada. Where are we at? I had posted double digit
unemployment in at least four states last week and we have areas of
country (Wisconsin is parts) at 20%. Lets take a look at REAL unemployment. Actually
according to this (credits in chart) - 1933 - 1934 was pretty nasty and
saw the peak of the the unemployment. With the coming of World War II,
put those people to work building bombs, guns, tanks, and bullets, and
you are sure to have a surge. At least that is how it has been until we
ran into the drainer wars - Vietnam and Operation Freedom. Yet Vietnam
did spark our world in the 60-70s in the "hippy days" and baby boomer
troglodytes like yours truly- coming of aging to a world of JFK,
nuclear scariness (which certain fueled the economy with great fervor
and not better red than dead." Instead of Osama's we were
looking for communists and they were everywhere. Between the threat of
the bomb and the threat Khrushchev banging his shoe on the podium and
growling "we will bury you" as they had swooped in taken as a World War
II trophy he Eastern Satellites and had close to nose nuclear
submarines and missiles, fear fueled our economy as it has for the last
100 years. If the people won't cooperate then scare the
whatever out of them to build bigger and more powerful bombs, jets, and
armies, and then start meddling and sticking your fingers in the government of every country around the globe. As
has been
said, and much to the chagrin of Cheech and Chong walking along the
beach with long hair and the unmentionable smokables of which some
famous people "didn't inhale" and some did - but that is career and
posting poison. So we won't even go there. - what has been said - is
wow man- what happened to the way it was. Well, about the same thing as
Bogart and Bacall swigging alcohol at 10 am and chain smoking - the way
of the worms.
I sigh deeply as we prepare to bottoms our blue vials at the Institute
and follow Cynthia Kenyon and Imminst to immortality when the boomers,
and there a lot of boomers and oldy kinda moldies like myself in
positions of great power refuse the to learn the classic lesson that
wiped out Rome-
What worked in the 20th century does not cut it in the 21th century.
After 40 years of hard work I can sing a passable Beatles song, but my
teen friends (the shiny computer geeks of the Z generation - yep - I
would call 11 years olds and a little older who can almost outwrite me
in code, the Z bunch) look at me blankly and say - David Bowie who?
Different land, different universe, change with the times or die. That
is the absolute. Forget how it was, because it isn't that way anymore.
For 100 years we have played scare the American children with bogymen
of foreign wars- remember -those not buried yet- James Bond and
Goldfinger and the plot to take over the world. Well, as I was told in
the 90s in between serious relationships (marriages) what is the
aphrodisiac of the 90s? - money- even more so the 21st century. For
many many people money all that maters. What is the guy that really
turns up the
flames of many a rising male or female (you must live with the reality
of asexual- although I will always be a gospel Christian pulling to the
hard right conservative (add all the explicitives my democrat friends
have for us) - the guy or girl.. Sharp dressed man with bucks and what
rules the planet.. well now we have to look at the Hong Kong Exchange,
the Japanese market, as well as Wall Street. It is amazings someone
hasn't taken a hndred
Point of this rant:
We are not in Kansas anymore..... heck we aren't even in the United
States. Where is the work labor core of the future - Southeast Asia. We
connect with Thailand and Vietnam and India - and Mexico - where are
the jobs going offshore.
So - we don't get a nice plunge in a day like the good old thirties -
at least not so far. No we have put up so many buffers and clandestine
hide the problem, that you are going to see a long rather intense
decline.. to be continued
Medclinician
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abcdefg
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Posted: March 14 2009 at 1:30pm |
If you have a job it is a recession, if you are unemployed it is a depression.
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Posted: March 14 2009 at 4:52pm |
abcdefg wrote:
If you have a job it is a recession, if you are unemployed it is a depression. |
This chart does not post well- so I've summed up some figures from the chart... here's a great Time Trek back to the Great Depression http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCNKq0-9p3w&eurl=http://purplejunction.com/2009/02/14/great-depression-unemployment-versus-2009-and-the-coming-storm/Credit to Hurley's Blog Trackback (thanks Hurley..) - http://purplejunction.com for this bit of work. I definitely have been spending too much time with some of my best friends who are CPAs - tax season I guess- which is to say - to look at these tables and find them increasingly more interesting. Of course it it all can be tweaked but look at construction worker unemployment hits - nasty huh for those of you who don't want to play eye ping pong with this chart coal and other miners went from 2.2 to 7.6%. Let me tell you another not so well kept secret of West Virginia. Miners make the bucks. People get the picture of some poor Uncle Tom's cabin type(not that there is not dignity and respect for every level of income and walk of life) or struggling families.. it is rare that miners around here can't find a job- they work hard, play hard, and can support a family of 5 pretty decent on what they make in the mines. Yet when you triple the unemployment in a year - you are looking at a big problem. Same goes for construction workers. In Silicon Valley the home of the megabucks programmers. We made our family fortune on my dad driving a truck for Pittsburg Des Moines Steel (He was a double semi- trucker driving when everybody else went home and then he bought houses and apartments and more apartments and quit driving truck when his hair turned gray. He grew up in the Depression 20 years Navy lifer. But when he got out he worked until salt used to crystalize on his tshirt when he would come in at midnight from carrying steel. Loading and unloading it.. trucking it. . That's how he got rich). And there was money in driving a truck. I used to work at Viking doing invoicing for what these guys and gals - there are some serious women truckers out there.. look at what they would make driving across the U.S. (being part computer nerd) shoot - big bucks. Better than what I was making So when you go from 4.6 to 9.1 this is pain. Construction guys.. yea.. hard work.. got a friend driving a Cat - and turned his back into a jigsaw puzzle spine wise.. 11.4 to 22.4% in one year. Used to look at these guys back in the whatever (and it was early Pleistocene Era) and they'd be surrounded by women, drinking beer, have a nice old house, and I'd tell my buddy.. teach me to drive one of those. Sometimes people get stressed when I call these people salt of the earth.. but I'lll tell you this a biblical reference.. The Salt and Light metaphors in the Sermon on the Mount include a direct reference to salt: "You are the salt of the earth. Well, to me our hard core workers are the salt of the earth. And watching them lose their jobs is painful. Maybe it is sitting over all this coal and watching the miners head down before the sun comes up and come back after its down sometimes. I am just plain fed up with all the white collars on Wall Street and then the bankers forgetting who is putting the money in their banks and execs prancing around living the life royalty on the backs of our worker class, vamping them by taking their taxes in bailouts and sinking back into their fat cat velvet parachutes and heading out for the Bahamas. Want to see some change? Put these hard working people back to work. Sorry.. I'm old school.. Protestant work ethic..nothing more virtuous than a farm hand swinging a mattock or a farmer plowing the south 40, with sweat streaming down his forehead. We need to get back to where making money and having a job and supporting your family is something to be proud of. Take that away, put someone out of a job, and you strip their self worth, their security, and their dignity as a human being. And if you think nurses don't work.. i used to put in a good 12 miles of walking as a supervisor on hospital looking down the hall you couldn't see the end.. that were 3 blocks long. We'd be up for days. Paramedic buddy of mine drives an ambulance comes over and sees me and says.. well another long haul. Fireman pulling long stretches... When people aren't working they are thinking, and when they are thinking they are unhappy, and when they are hungry, thinking, and unhappy, you have a real problem. The Depression. Not the greatest narration, but some great pics. this is a high traffic link and 9 minutes long. so if you want to check out some great footage of the the Great Depression.. this is pretty good. mmm better... more realistic http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgR2Buke5MQ&feature=relatedMedclinician
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Posted: March 21 2009 at 5:45am |
The "red arrows" - as I had been commenting on in another thread are coming back and the Dow Jones is plunging once more after a brief recovery.
The silence is deafening in terms of effectiveness of the "Economic Recovery" strategy and this has been followed by additonal mutters of "well its going to be bad for awhile before it gets worse."
And figure this... we can't afford to stop the war in the Middle East (wars) - because our guys (Veterans) come home and can't find a job. One source (name withheld) working in a job shop said having a military background and finding a job was like being a leper in the job community.. you have no real connections and many service connected skills are not useful in civilian life. Watching a check point in Iraq, or leading a black op team against the Taliban in Afghanistan will not keep you from seriously considering minimum wage jobs for which you must fiercely compete with immigrants.
No one is going to say the D word in the administration, even if we were in one for quite a long time.
Current prognosis for our economy. Not terrific.
Medclinician
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Penham
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Posted: March 21 2009 at 6:34am |
I think there are are certain pockets of the country in a depression and the rest in a recession. Did anyone watch 20/20 last night? They did a segment on people coping with the economy, it was really good. I didn't know the unemplyment rate in Detroit was 22%, that is close to depression standards isn't it? They had $100 houses for sale there that had been forclosed on and banks just wanting them off their books to be out from under the taxes. They talked with a classroom of teenagers in a school in CA, this is tha class that had done the video on utube that the president saw "Is anybody listening" I think is the title where just out of the general population almost everyone in the classroom's family was behind in their rent or mortgage, very close to being homeless or already having moved in with relatives due to being homeless. Another portion dealt with the rise in population of the homeless shelters. Another story a guy went from a $750,000 a year job to delivering pizza to make ends meet. Anyway, an interesting watch.
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