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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

New H7N9 infection, Guangdong China.12/16

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Kyle View Drop Down
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    Posted: December 16 2013 at 6:22am
Guangdong confirms fourth case of H7N9 bird flu
A 65-year-old mainland woman is in critical condition after being diagnosed with the deadly H7N9 bird flu strain, Guangdong health authorities said on Monday night.

The woman, a retiree from Jiangcheng district in Yangjiang city, was confirmed to be the fourth case of H7N9 in the province.

The case comes a day after the Health and Family Planning Commission of Guangdong announced a case involving a 39-year-old Dongguan man, who is also in critical condition after being diagnosed with the potentially fatal bird flu strain.

Authorities said clinical experts had been sent to Yangjiang by the commission to provide medical guidance and conduct an epidemiological investigation.

A total of 142 human cases of H7N9 bird flu have been confirmed so far in China, including 51 cases in Zhejiang, 33 in Shanghai, 28 in Jiangsu and a handful of cases across Jiangxi, Fujian, Anhui, and Henan provinces.

Shandong, Hunan and Beijing have confirmed two cases H7N9 cases and a solitary case has been confirmed in Hebei.


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coyote View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 16 2013 at 6:38am
Ut oh ,now another one..Probably hundreds if not more, that we are not hearing about!
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Albert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 16 2013 at 6:48am
I agree Coyote.  It's getting too widespread and out of control for China to continue suppressing info. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CStackDrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 16 2013 at 4:11pm
Cinch 'em tight, boys....looks like we are underway.  

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cobber View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 16 2013 at 9:11pm
This is very odd. This case is some distance from the others, which is not a good sign!!

Still waiting for some more evidence of H2H before calling it. 

Having said that it seems the latest cases have all been linked, suggesting H2H is happening.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CStackDrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 16 2013 at 10:20pm
Originally posted by cobber cobber wrote:

This is very odd. This case is some distance from the others, which is not a good sign!!

Still waiting for some more evidence of H2H before calling it. 

Having said that it seems the latest cases have all been linked, suggesting H2H is happening.


There is a lot of traffic in chickens, ducks etc., a lot of it underground since fowl is a traditional meal for Chinese New Year (Jan 31) and its run-up.  

The outlying cases may be due to transport of H7N9 infected poultry to various places.  The Chinese PLA has tried to stamp out "wet markets," but they are driving them underground.  Hard to kill a tradition that is thousands of years old!  

I don't think we have H2H yet, but China and its environs (Taiwan, Hong Kong, Viet Nam etc.) are a seething swarm of orthomixoviridae (flu viruses), and reassortment of H7N9, if not genetic shift towards efficient human infection, seems very likely.  


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cobber View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 17 2013 at 6:35am
Black market chooks and duck. good point. 

I've lived in China, one thing i can guarantee is market operators wouldn't loose a single Yuan for public safety. I would quite comfortably bet my left nut, that they just moved them to another market.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 17 2013 at 7:46am
Originally posted by cobber cobber wrote:

Black market chooks and duck. good point. 

I've lived in China, one thing i can guarantee is market operators wouldn't loose a single Yuan for public safety. I would quite comfortably bet my left nut, that they just moved them to another market.


You are right on the money but that is only the tip of the iceburg. Feed a hog with H1N1 a sick chicken with H7N9 and what do you get?


China's chicken leaves sour taste in world’s mouth


China’s food production has been in the news quite a bit over the last few years, thanks to avian flu and most recently the melamine-tainted pet food and livestock feed scandal. As a result, the nation’s director of food safety has been sentenced to death, and other heads are likely to roll, so to speak.

The latest news to come out of the country has to do with dead chickens. An essay written by two Chinese scientists, Gaoming Jiang and Aimin Tang, in China Dialogue describes in detail how China’s egg and poultry industry has morphed over the last 20 or so years from mostly backyard free-range production into factory farming. Today, the country consumes nearly 5 billion chickens a year.

The authors discuss the usual aspects of factory farms—the filthy, crowded conditions, the battery cages that don’t allow birds to spread their wings or perform other natural behaviors, the excessive use of antibiotics, and the addition of hormones to animal feed. But they also discuss something that many readers will have never read about: what happens to the carcasses of chickens that die before slaughter?

According to Jiang and Tang, 80 percent of the chickens that die on farms—usually from stress or disease—end up in the human food chain. The dead birds are extremely cheap, costing just 0.4 to 0.6 yuan (US 5 cents to 7 cents) a kilogram, and sausage manufacturers and street vendors are eager to buy them.

And it’s not only dead birds that are sold to these producers, but also sick ones that are then slaughtered for human food, as well as livestock feed. Diseased chicken samples from a laboratory studying avian diseases, the authors write, are sold illegally to pig farmers for feed at 0.8 yuan (US 10 cents) per kilogram.

The public health dangers of this type of “recycling” are unknown, but scientists suspect that BSE (bovine spongiform encephalopathy, or mad cow disease) likely emerged because of feeding cows the ground-up bits of other cows. This practice isn’t confined to China, either. Factory farms there likely learned the practice from the United States, where producers feed their animals a range of unsavory ingredients, including feathers, cardboard, and chicken manure. Something to keep in mind as we criticize China for its own food safety woes...

http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5177



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jacksdad View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 17 2013 at 10:43am
It's all just a numbers game and the way we're breeding, housing and selling food animals (especially in the far East) is tipping the odds in the virus's favor. H5-10 viruses are now circulating in wild/domestic populations and showing up in humans for the first time (see Kyle's post about H10N8's involvement in a fatal case in Jiangxi) and if they keep mixing and matching with and without our help, a major pandemic strain is sure to emerge eventually. This is getting scary and very unpredictable (like it wasn't bad enough anyway).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CStackDrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 18 2013 at 6:42am
Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:

It's all just a numbers game and the way we're breeding, housing and selling food animals (especially in the far East) is tipping the odds in the virus's favor. H5-10 viruses are now circulating in wild/domestic populations and showing up in humans for the first time (see Kyle's post about H10N8's involvement in a fatal case in Jiangxi) and if they keep mixing and matching with and without our help, a major pandemic strain is sure to emerge eventually. This is getting scary and very unpredictable (like it wasn't bad enough anyway).

Right you are, Jacksdad!  I consult in agriculture....the swine flu H1N1 broke out of one of my ConAgra farms in Veracruz, MX.  

Mexico is like a hospital clean room compared to China, in terms of animal biosecurity - it is common for Chinese farmers to feed poultry litter (poop) and unrendered, dead birds right into swine.  Gee, let's stoke the "virus mixing pot" with even more virions!

This one just broke, we have more cases popping up in China...and these are just the ones being reported.  Ya have to wonder....


GUANGZHOU, Dec. 18 (Xinhua) -- South China's Guangdong Province reported its third human H7N9 case in four days on Wednesday, raising the total H7N9 cases in the province to five since August.

The new patient is a 62-year-old resident surnamed Liang in Yangjiang City, said the provincial health authority. He is in critical condition.

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