Pascal’s Wager

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   Many of you are familure with the argument.  

However, I will change it slightly so maybe some of the new members who
may not understand why so many are preparing for a possible disaster
situation.

You prepare and there is a Pandemic = You are covered

You prepare and there is no pandemic = You are still ok

You don't prepare and there is no pandemic = You are ok

You don't prepare and there is a pandemic = You are totally screwed

Now that puts those that prepare in the best possible situation where
those that do not are making a sort of wager with thier future.

If you have come to the conclusion that no pandemic will happen and
feel confident in your decision, well very good for you.  We all
must live and die by our decisions every day and it is no different for
BF.

However, you should ask those who did not get on the bus in New Orleans
when the experts said the big one was comming, if they still think that
was a good decision.

Just my .02

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DarlMan Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List V.I.P. Member Joined: December 26 2005 Status: Offline Points: 140	Post Options Post Reply Quote DarlMan Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: Pascal’s Wager Posted: March 07 2006 at 10:10am
	Many of you are familure with the argument. However, I will change it slightly so maybe some of the new members who may not understand why so many are preparing for a possible disaster situation. You prepare and there is a Pandemic = You are covered You prepare and there is no pandemic = You are still ok You don't prepare and there is no pandemic = You are ok You don't prepare and there is a pandemic = You are totally screwed Now that puts those that prepare in the best possible situation where those that do not are making a sort of wager with thier future. If you have come to the conclusion that no pandemic will happen and feel confident in your decision, well very good for you. We all must live and die by our decisions every day and it is no different for BF. However, you should ask those who did not get on the bus in New Orleans when the experts said the big one was comming, if they still think that was a good decision. Just my .02
	History shows again and again How nature points out the folly of men

bruss01 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Adviser Group Joined: January 12 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 448	Post Options Post Reply Quote bruss01 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 07 2006 at 10:26am
	Looking at this another way... Say the odds of each of the 4 scenarios is roughly equal. Whether or not I prep, there is a 75% chance I will be ok, and a 25% chance I will be in deep doo doo. If I prep, there is a 100% chance I will be ok. If I don't prep, there is a 50% chance I will be in deep doo doo. Now, replace "I" in the above with "my mate and kids". What's your acceptable level of risk, and what is it worth to you? A little time and effort, a few dollars here and there, a little less disposable income for 2-3 months? Doesn't sound like such a bad investment now, does it?

Guests Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 07 2006 at 10:27am


Hobby Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Location: Canada Status: Offline Points: 58	Post Options Post Reply Quote Hobby Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 07 2006 at 10:27am
	Very well said DarlMan........

mightymouse Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Valued Member Joined: January 27 2006 Status: Offline Points: 487	Post Options Post Reply Quote mightymouse Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 07 2006 at 7:30pm
	brusso1 says: If I prep, there is a 100% chance I will be ok. You did not consider the BF factor in your reasoning. All the prepping in the world will do you no good if you croak from the BF. But prepping is definitely superior to not prepping.
	Nothing matters - Therefore everything matters

bruss01 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Adviser Group Joined: January 12 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 448	Post Options Post Reply Quote bruss01 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 07 2006 at 10:34pm
	MM - Too true! Nothing's 100%, nothing. The Titanic was "unsinkable" and sunk on her maiden voyage. All one can do is play the odds, and I like the odds better the more prepped I get. Who was it that said, "fortune favors the prepared"?

Guests Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 08 2006 at 2:47am
	Darlman said everthing.What else is there to be said .Get ready now and sit back and watch!