Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Not if- but when -Medclinician-Ebola Pandemic |
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Medclinician2013
Valued Member Joined: September 17 2013 Location: Carmel Status: Offline Points: 9020 |
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Posted: September 08 2014 at 8:24pm |
http://www.foxnews.com/health/2014/09/08/ebola-infected-patient-to-be-brought-from-west-africa-to-atlanta-hospital/?intcmp=latestnews
Okay, they finally are saying it - Not if, but when. It is said in this video as well as over 6,000 people are on planes flying all over from the areas infected with Ebola. "I have seen a blog where they are saying 'not if but when'" Avian Flu Talk, you think? "Once it gets out of a small village the more it will spread." "And God help us, if it mutates." The real issue here is one of common sense. If it can spread in Africa, given the number of people traveling out of there, it could spread elsewhere. Doctors are concerned and one can hope... what - it will stay in Africa? |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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Kilt2
Adviser Group Joined: December 17 2007 Status: Offline Points: 7414 |
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Without symptoms it doesn't infect others
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And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Medclinician2013
Valued Member Joined: September 17 2013 Location: Carmel Status: Offline Points: 9020 |
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This is an absolutely false statement. It has an incubation period of 21 days and according to multiple sources it is contagious during this period. Please quote your sources. http://ebola.emedtv.com/ebola/ebola-incubation-period.html Ebola Incubation PeriodThe Ebola incubation period is the period between infection with the virus and the appearance of symptoms associated with the disease. The incubation period can be as short as 2 days or as long as 21 days. A person is still contagious during this time.When a person becomes infected with the Ebola virus, it enters the body and begins to multiply. The virus can travel in the blood to almost any part of the body, including the:
After four to six days on average, symptoms of Ebola
can begin. The period between the transmission of the virus and the
start of symptoms is called the incubation period. For Ebola, the
incubation period can be as short as 2 days or as long as 21 days.
Even if a person exhibits no signs or symptoms of Ebola, he or she
can still spread the virus during the incubation period. Once symptoms
begin, the person can remain contagious for about three more weeks. Medclinician |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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Medclinician2013
Valued Member Joined: September 17 2013 Location: Carmel Status: Offline Points: 9020 |
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http://www.kcdc-phrp.org/article/S2210-9099%2811%2900002-6/abstract?cc=y
also SKY NEWS (UK), approx. 09.40, Tuesday 5th August: Sarah-Jane Mee interviewed a spokeswoman for Médecins Sans Frontières. They discussed the situation in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, where MSF have been operating since the start of the outbreak. Sarah-Jane asked the woman what needs to be done to get the outbreak 'under control.' The MSF spokeswoman's answer was disturbing. She specifically said that many more resources are needed, especially to trace people. She went on to say that the authorities needed to trace everyone who those who fall sick with Ebola had come into contact with for the previous 21 days. This was not a slip of the tongue or an 'off-the-cuff' passing remark. She said, clearly and deliberately, that the people who have been in contact with an Ebola victim over the 21 days prior to them showing symptoms (i.e. the incubation period) needed to be traced as a matter of urgency. This explicitly means that, MSF at least, consider the virus is spreading during the incubation period (and that MSF consider the incubation period to be a whopping 21 days - not the 'couple of days' some are banding about). Should we pay attention to MSF? Yes. They have more experience in fighting Ebola, of various strains, than any other organisation in the world - over 15 outbreaks previous to this one, according to the same spokeswoman. So there you have it. The main organisation, fighting Ebola on the ground, categorically thinks that the virus is contagious during the incubation period. This has massive implications for the spread of the virus. Medclinician |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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Albert
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The problem is disposing of the all the dead bodies without touching them. That could be an impossible task. That of course is different from a flu type pandemic. Ebola can also be spread via casual contact. That combo is fairly bad news. Like I mentioned, look at it like a slow moving h5n1 pandemic, or a black death semi airborne hemorrhagic fever, etc.... it can probably be contained in various parts of the world.
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https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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drumfish
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I find the conflicting information from different sources on the time frame for when victims become infective problematic. I have now seen citations for both, i.e. infective before symptoms are noted and for only after symptioms are observed. I wonder which source is correct.
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Medclinician2013
Valued Member Joined: September 17 2013 Location: Carmel Status: Offline Points: 9020 |
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I am willing to bite on this Albert and I see something here I missed. The West African nations are touching dead bodies and in the case of Ebola this makes it even more spreadable. The fact we have some real higher ups (how high does it go?) denying this is airborne, contagious without symptoms, and somehow will magically stay in Africa is delusional. There is a real key issue here though. If this massively spreads in Africa it is going to mutate. You know it is. The new version may be very contagious in the air and have an even higher CFR. We will know in weeks. If it is going to jump over on the planes and break out in New York... or Miami.. or place with a big airport - it will - It has a max incubation period of 21 days. In 21 days we will know a lot more. Medclinician |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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The information being spread about "infectivity only when symptomatic" is BS. All virus infections follow the same course: a) colonization - the virus establishes itself in the host. In the case of Ebola, the infectious dose is as low as a few viable viruses b) inapparent infection - the virus ramps up replication in the host's body, disseminating itself throughout the body via bloodstream. The host is not yet symptomatic, but shedding profuse quantities of virus. c) clinical infection - the host now displays symptoms, which in the case of EVD, includes profuse sweating, fever, vomiting, bleeding etc. d) recovery/mortality - the host either recovers from the virus or dies. Certain viruses, such as rabies, have a case fatality rate approaching 1.0 (i.e. nobody survives). Ebola's CFR is about 60% with access to decent treatment, and about 90% in the bush. So, don't believe that only EVD cases who are sweating, shaking, bleeding, vomiting (aka Patrick Sawyer) are the only cases to fear. Asymptomatic cases are certainly shedding virus, the only question being how much and by what means (saliva, blood, vomitus). |
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CRS, DrPH
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Technophobe
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THANK YOU, Chuck!
Now we have the definative answer at last. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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arirish
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CRS, DrPH- I agree! Since Ebola is spread via contact with bodily fluids a person with unapparent infection could still spread the disease if bleeding, had a runny nose, cough or sneezing or had unprotected sex! However ,until the clinical stage there's not enough virus built up to shed. I remember reading somewhere that a body sheds the most virus shortly after death which I believe is a unique trait with Ebola.
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Buy more ammo!
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drumfish
Adviser Group Joined: September 08 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3115 |
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I agree. I am just interested in the descrepency. Why would a public health keep this information on there documents. Its like the news stating that there is no danger of being in a college classroom next to someone just arrived from west Africa because they are checking their temp. What about the person who uses the desk next?
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Satori
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Video: Model Shows How Ebola Will Spread: “It Only Takes One Infected Individual Making It Through An Airport Checkpoint” |
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Medclinician2013
Valued Member Joined: September 17 2013 Location: Carmel Status: Offline Points: 9020 |
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If indeed this becomes a Pandemic, history will look back and say we should not have brought a lot of patients from Africa to America to be treated. Some type of facility, as was suggested by another poster here, should be built asap to treat this in a center in West Africa.
The filters on the planes are not adequate to filter this and it is in a sense, airborne and infectious even if the patient does not have symptoms. It does not have to be airborne to be a smudge on a door knob at a school which hundreds of kids touch. http://www.thomhartmann.com/users/pkrause12249/blog/2014/07/urban-setting-ebola-perpetual-ebola-will-never-burnout-professionals How long does Ebola live outside the body? No definite information is available because it has not been researched; the best hypothesis is 3 to 10 days. Fomites, if Ebola can live on a door handle for 3 to 10 days. How many people visit a public restroom in a day (entrance door handle and then touch your face)? http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_times_does_a_person_touch_their_face_daily The incubation period of Ebola is 2 to 21 days. The method of transmission is direct contact with secretions. If a person survives the Ebola virus the person may be able to transmit the virus through sexual contact for up to 2 months. comment: The statement that Ebola cannot live outside the body is a myth. In droplet form it is still in a transmittable environment and outside the human body and may infect another person. |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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Elver
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If you look at this link and the graph of outbreaks, it sure looks like an exponential spread in Liberia to me.
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/131974/1/roadmapsitrep1_eng.pdf?ua=1 Ebola is a biohazard level 4 disease. If it weren't easy to catch, you wouldn't see doctors wearing space suits. |
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Medclinician2013
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http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/09/140911130048.htm "Our analysis of the reproduction numbers of Ebola cases shows continuous growth from June to August 2014 that signalled a major epidemic," Nishiura said. "Uncontrolled cross-border transmission could fuel a major epidemic to take off in new geographical areas as was seen in Liberia." |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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onefluover
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to the last bunch of posts. If we don't whoop this thing we'll certainly well understand it.
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"And then there were none."
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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I strongly disagree, Med. We're already seeing potentially groundbreaking discoveries based on the treatment of patients in US hospitals. This is a virus, and as such it's behavior can be predicted and precautions taken - as a scientist, you should appreciate that. No further spread has occurred from the patients brought home so far despite fears by some to the contrary. If we're to beat this, we need first world medical facilities to be allowed to bring their expertize and resources to bear. We can't expect countries like Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Nigeria and now Senegal to do that, or even give adequate care to US citizens who were brave enough to risk their lives on humanitarian missions of this kind. To strand them over there based on thus far unfounded fears does them a great injustice, and potentially delays (or prevents) meaningful treatments for this nasty disease. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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drumfish
Adviser Group Joined: September 08 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3115 |
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I am thankful for those brave folks who go to help the sick, assist foreign govs, and research for cure and advances in treatments. To go into a outbreak is a brave thing to do. We know that research on these types of pathogens occurs here in the USA i.e. zmap etc. Accidents with pathogens have happened in research labs even with tight controls. That being said transporting and treating a live patient exuding body fluids and potentially airborne infective virons is a different set of risks. I do believe we need to do what we can to help brave humanitarians who take huge risks to help through gov and NGO. The work benifits all people. That being said I would rather see the pathogen stay where it is endemic rather than come here any sooner than it will without travel restrictions and with open borders. I would rather the resources went to the "plague" then the "plague" to come here. If it really is as bad as some reports, or lack there of, suggest the smart brave folks really haven't found a ironclad way to tend to the sick without getting sick themselves. When these brave folks go they do so knowing they are assuming a huge risk. I don't want the risk here that comes with knowingly bringing infected folks to our last line of defence which is the hospitals and doctors here. Especially when we are facing Ebola getting here on its own. I am not trying to be cold but quarteen works until broken. I know that the health care providers here have demonstrated they can handle a few cases but I don't think things would be the same if/when there are percentages of infection like in Africa. If/when this gets loose in a cooler climate we don't know what will happen. Keeping it a ocean away as long as possable would seem to be less risk to my family, friends, and country. However once the jinie is out of the bottle and we get an outbreak here the point would be moot.
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drumfish
Adviser Group Joined: September 08 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3115 |
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And it only takes one accident, miscalculation, or oversite. With the incubation of +/- 21 days we really don't know yet that we have contained what we have already brought here. Further, considering the the brave volunteers in africa were following the guidelines and still got sick I think saying thus unfounded fears may be a matter of perspective. The risk that one person might consider slight might be to another completely unwarranted to another. For example some people feel nuclear power plants poses no danger. Others feel there is a real threat to have them in our environment. It has been done and it continues to be done. If they are safe then great but if there not safe the people who felt it was too risky get to live with the result. Think Japan, Chernobyl, 3 mile island. (I am not arguing nucular power +/- just example). When I heard about Ebola infected folks being brought back to USA I will admit it pissed me off. Sure if by doing this in a safe controlled way we gain an edge on Ebola we all benefit. But if something goes wrong I/we am/are put at some amount of greater risk but have no say in the matter. Sure as I said above I want to help. But it's about the risk and who is taking it and who gets to live with the consequences if the safe bet doesn't pay out. Again once we have an outbreak here my point will be moot.
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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I've got to agree with Jacksdad here. Yes bringing patients here is probably a tiny bit risky. I do mean tiny. Modern barrier facilities are pretty fantastic. Under those circumstanes it would take a whole series of accidents to release a pathogen. It's true, that escape is not impossible, but it is very, very unlikely.
And there is a huge amount to be gained. Know your enemy. This gives an unparalleded opportunity to study this horror. Make no mistake, this will come here and information is our first line weapon. The care for those who risked their lives is an important thing too. Despite the fact that we go on to treat them as a cross between a pin-cushon and a lab rat. If you do not want to put a purely humanitarian slant on that, then consider how many volunteers there would be if they were not cared for. The day may come when they are needed here. The risks are tiny, the benefits huge. It might be scary, but it was the right decision. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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drumfish
Adviser Group Joined: September 08 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3115 |
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Yes and no. I am irked that we don't have a way to take the resources to the fight there. I in no way want to leave the volunteers without help when they need it. What resources are we using here that we could not have taken there?
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Entire first world hospitals with unfettered access to equipment and laboratory testing, and staffed by some of the world's leading infectious disease experts.
There is another side to this - if we're to believe that the presence of Western experts and technology is paramount to finally getting a handle on this and preventing it's spread worldwide, how can we honestly expect our own people to go to Africa in the knowledge that they'll be abandoned should they get sick - something that's becoming more likely now that travel restrictions have effectively cut the supply lines for essential medical equipment like PPE. We can't have our cake and eat it - if we're to know our enemy as Techno so eloquently puts it, we have to be more involved than just shutting and locking the door and hoping the monster on the other side doesn't find the open window. It's coming despite all of attempts to stop it, and we're better prepared to find new ways to treat Ebola than Africa will ever be. I think that if there ever was a major Ebola pandemic, hindsight would show us that completely isolating West Africa to the detriment of furthering our knowledge of the disease was where we made our first, last and biggest mistake. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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drumfish
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I should clarify. I am not referring to resources to treat/care for all of Africa's victoms. Rather to care for volunteers who are infected and to advance the knowledge base by treating the volunteers. Last I heard we officially have brought 4 victims here. Some have indicated others who may have been exposed were or may have been airlifted as well. Then there is some number of world partner countries personnel as well. Still not like we are talking the general population. I understood the USA was going to set up a separate facility to care for the volunteer health care providers.
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drumfish
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If it is so bad that we can't fly in supplies for the people we have there I would think its time to pull them back to a new line of defense where we can supply and support them. Medical ship? Rual field hospital?
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drumfish
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I do not believe we lack the ability to treat our people without bringing them here. So I question abandonment. I really don't believe it is incorrect to propose that we should be doing everything to keep infection off our shores. Yes it may come in through the window but don't let it in the front door. If it comes through the window we fight it there. But time is what is needed to find, test, manufacturer, and distribute a cure.
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jacksdad
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I hear you, but I think that stopping this in it's tracks requires us to get our hands dirty and use the facilities we have here. To try to replicate them in West Africa when we're having trouble getting gloves and gowns out there would be difficult if not impossible, and wastes valuable time we don't have anymore. There are US and European doctors and scientists desperate for first hand knowledge of Ebola that would never consider going to Africa - their ability to make the most progress in the fight to treat it lies with our willingness to bring infected volunteers back for treatment under strict quarantine.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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The crux of this whole argument lies in whether you believe it will spread in developed countries as it has in places like Liberia amd Sierra Leone. I see nothing to suggest that we'll behave as recklessly as the population of West Africa has, and I consider the risk of an uncontrollable outbreak in the States to be considerably lower. I look at the mess they've created for themselves as an absolute worst case scenario.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Medclinician2013
Valued Member Joined: September 17 2013 Location: Carmel Status: Offline Points: 9020 |
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A key part of this is whether this is a an issue of poor sanitation which exists in West Africa and it causing the spread as opposed to spreading and erupting in an epidemic in America. What seems to be odd is that people in West Africa are dying at the rate of 50% at least and we get a few cases brought here who do not seem that sick. How is it these cases that come here mysteriously reover and seem to have little problems with it when it is killing West Africans in droves. Facilities should be set up there. The fact t hat thousands of Africans are flying here, some of whom must have it, is disturbing. Time will tell. No one wants to see an epidemic anywhere, much less the United States. |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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Technophobe
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Agreed Med. The facilities should be set up there. Now how many Trillion dollars are you willing to donate to do this? It would take more than that, as poor Africa has been undersupplied for CENTURIES!
It is terrible to have to admit this, but there is no way (short of the biggest miracle JC ever brought about) that the facilities needed can be imported in this century. Finding enough simple paracetamol to fight fevers in Africa is impossible. A multi billion dollar hospital with well trained staff, including nursing, research, support services, consultants and administration is just not feasable. They need hundreds of these! It is our shame as well as theirs that Africa is in this state. Wealthy nations simply have ignored them for too long. It is too late now. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Well said, Techno. Setting up facilities at short notice in Africa of the caliber necessary to treat patients and develop new treatments is completely unfeasible (and unnecessary when we already have them here). In the case of infected Western volunteers, why take the cart to the horse? Get these people back where they stand the best chance of survival so doctors can better study the disease.
Med - I understand your concern about cases showing up from Africa, but even if we're not testing they're going to be noticed when symptoms start. Ebola's not exactly easy to hide, which leads me to believe it's not here - not yet anyway. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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drumfish
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I really think there is a disconnect here. The only way we can affect any real change for the situation there if it as you have described is by producing a vaccine or zmapp etc.
Getting our hands dirty? If you are a firefighter you go where the fire is you don't bring it into your bedroom |
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WillobyBrat
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Oh dear! This is going to get me crucified! So, I will start with the good bit first.
Mutation 101: All the living creatures on earth, animal, vegetable, fungi, bacterium, virus (argueably) are teh product of a series of trillions of mutations. Every time a creature comes into existance, by live birth or otherwise, it carries thousands of mutations which result in changes in gene expression. Most mutations are harmeless and die out with the being carrying them. One In several thousand of these mutations is passed on to the next generation. 99.9999.% of those mutations either kill or damage the organisim beyond its ability to survive intact or breed. The minute number left produce a superior being such as the ones that made australopithicus into homo errectus and homo errectus into homo sapiens sapiens (us). Very few organisims, even viruses, evolve very quickly without an external stimulus. This can be anything from radiation (including natural say a solar flare, gamma ray burst or just cosmic rays), chemical polutants (from the natural defences of prey species including plants minerals in the soil or manmade stuff), Shockwaves, impacts or just the evolutionary arms race. So stop worrying about mutations. They will be spotted and dealt with in the process of developing an effective treatment. Now as far as putting the western world at risk and us being even remotely to blame for what is happening in Africa, I would like to point out that we came out of Africa, set up our civilisation after growing up socially (ie. going through the stupid religious bit, burnings, heresy, wars etc.). Africa, which has natural rescources beyond the imagination of most people, is still behaving both in the mainland and the Middle-East like a bunch of tribal savages. That is not a criticism of the negro race solely of the African and Middle-East which are locked in the most hideous form of religious and social feudalism with its unmitigated cruelty and corruption. If you doubt this Think of FGM, IS and the fact that they can't even dig a bl**dy well without help or instruction. Personally I would not risk one member of our civilisation for the whole of Africa's unless they are willing collectively to put an end to the horror and corruption that abounds in their nations. Only South Africa appears to seriously trying. Techno' was correct, we do need their cases to be studied by our medical scientists, but preferably on hospital ships equipped for use in NBC situations, the existance of which is an open-secret. You may now all tear me to pieces. |
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I like Ike
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Technophobe
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If the ships already exist then they should be over there helping.
Drumfish, true about the fire. But this fire is already outside the bedroom door on the landing and the window is smoking. You may have to brave the flames to get out at all........ And the fire extinguisher is just outside the bedroom door. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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drumfish
Adviser Group Joined: September 08 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3115 |
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I think Ebola is about survival.
Namely my families friends country. I am sure all the countries of the world would come to our aid if we were in west Africa's boots just as we are coming to there aid. No I don't think we can build their health care system we are having trouble maintaining our own. We might be able to contain this long enough to find a cure. Sadly this would mean letting it burn out in some areas. |
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drumfish
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Is it loose in the USA I don't know. But I am so sick of the idea that we are not even suppose to try to keep infectious desease out of our country. Even if you can't stop it slowing it buys time. We could enforce quarenteens but we don't. We have had years to get ready for this but don't. It might be too much to ask to restrict travel to attempt to protect the rest of the population of the planet while we try to solve the problem and pay for it.
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Technophobe
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You are absoluetly correct there, Drumfish! We may disagree over where they should treat the afflicted volunteers, but I could not agree with you more that our respective governments are failing to prep.
We have time. It is not here YET. But it will come, eventually. There is no hope for West Africa and only a small portion of hope for Africa as a whole. But it will take some time to get here. The virus will make several unsuccesfull attempts to breach our borders before it succeds. Our governments are complacent where this is concerned. Because they can easily contain the famous cases in the top hospitals, they think they can contain all of it on the ground, and that is not so. So they will not really prepare in earnest. Oh, they will make a great show of a few facilities, but no where near enough. The lack of a timely response in Africa shows the level of underestimation going on. Money drives the decisions not safety. So preparing is up to us. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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drumfish
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When I was in college (microbiology) I can still rember my professors talking about how much more likely we were to see a flu like or worse than 1918 than Ebola. The chance of it getting out of its remote locations before burning out was, well just not going to happen. There right even now this thing could jest turn off, but I wonder what their thinking right now.
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Technophobe
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I don't imagine they are doing much thinking. Too buisy washing their underwear.
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Since Ebola's discovery in 1976, the sum total of all the research that was able to be carried out by anyone - Western and African doctors alike - using what amounted to bush clinics, led to rehydration therapy becoming the standard treatment for patients. The first two US patients that arrived in the States allowed doctors to find a number of significant issues, namely that certain electrolytes were chronically depleted and effective treatment required more than standard rehydration (which was likely worsening the sitation), and protein was needed to combat liver insufficiency leading to hypoalbuminemia, and consequently further edema and fluid loss. Now we're hearing that antibody serum donated by Brantly may be working with the Nebraska patient. We've discovered more in just over a month than Africa has in almost 40 years, and it's still not enough justification?
It's a virus, and it transmits like a virus - the people who brought in Brantly and Writepol went completely overboard to make sure they allayed the fears of those who seem to attribute almost supernatural powers of transmission to this strain, but they did it without any further infection, and we're now substantially further down the road to successful treatments. Yes, if getting our hands dirty means bringing US patients back to improve their odds and develop treatments, I'd rather that than pretend that Africa is suddenly going to match us in terms of medical research facilities and find a cure before it arrives on our doorsteps. You want the best for your family, but you want the third world to do it when they've failed to move Ebola treatments one solitary step forward in 38 years? Good luck with that. I have more faith in leaving a quarter under my pillow for the Ebola bunny than trusting to West Africa finding a cure anytime soon that doesn't involve faith healing or herbal smoothies. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Medclinician2013
Valued Member Joined: September 17 2013 Location: Carmel Status: Offline Points: 9020 |
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Would like to thank those posting here with some solid useful and a lot of information which is clarifying a lot of statements which have been made about Ebola.
This morning, I was thinking I truly do not want to see this even get out of Africa and spread anywhere. The simple realities are that we don't - the world doesn't have the real desire to put out huge amounts of money to treat this in Africa, when we would be hard pressed to deal with it ourselves. I would like to emphasize every time a case does not go bad and become a spreader it is a relief. Yet with possible mutation, and a mutation has occured, (maybe several) to the original Zaire strain - we are no longer fighting the same "bug." Whether it is Ebola, or the new stomach bug in the U.S., or new outbreaks of old foes that children are not immune to as well as many adult, we need to prepare. It doesn't cost a lot of money to put tap water in bottles or store beans, rice, and goods. Perhaps it may not spread well in America or Western nations, but we have a huge Third World ut there as in India and other locations where it could arrive and spread. Medclinician |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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I agree, Med. Developing nations around the world need to be watching this and getting ready.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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drumfish
Adviser Group Joined: September 08 2014 Status: Offline Points: 3115 |
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Africa is suddenly going to match us in terms of medical research facilities and find a cure before it arrives on our doorsteps. You want the best for your family, but you want the third world to do it when they've failed to move Ebola treatments one solitary step forward in 38 years? Good luck with that. I have more faith in leaving a quarter under my pillow for the Ebola bunny than trusting to West Africa finding a cure anytime soon that doesn't involve faith healing or herbal smoothies.
[/QUOTE] wow really! Dont put words in my mouth! I don't want it here. I have no dissolution of African capabilities. I full well know the cure will come from the developed world, it will be paid for by the developed world. That does not mean we need to bring the infected here to do it. This is not abanding volunteers to care for them off of our shores. |
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29670 |
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Jacksdad, you are thinking like a reasonable, moderate, and sensible person, and also like a health care professional. I think the majority of people will be reasonable and responsible about Ebola should it reach the western world, but we've got to remember how many nutters there are out there. How many dislocated, angry and disillusioned people there are in our societies. Unfortunately we aren't all living the dream, and just as cases regularly pop up of people with HIV actively being promiscuous in order to take as many others down with them as they can, I'm worried that there are just enough sickos in our societies who may, upon discovering or suspecting that they themselves have Ebola, will set out to spread it around as much as possible, because why should it happen only to them? I'm not sure how we tackle people like that. It's the potentially long incubation period of Ebola that will allow it to spread, particularly if people are infectious before they are symptomatic. |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Medclinician2013
Valued Member Joined: September 17 2013 Location: Carmel Status: Offline Points: 9020 |
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This has nothing to do with HIV. It is far more contagious and despite denial over and over, it can be transmitted in the air. As for a seasoned health professional, I have been so for more than 30 years as well as running a clinic during the war. I ran the clinic alone and saw patients, prescribed meds as a PA does and also had only of the only bio research companies in West Virginia trying to do non-contacat Ultrasound. It has nothing to do with cool thinking to see it is spreading like wildfire in West Africa. To take the spin being pumped to the public that it is not a threat - is irresponible, naive, and considering the muatations occuring, far from dislocated, mental, or tin hat. If we do not contain it in West Africa, this thing can mutate and spread to the U.S. We should not be bringing cases of it back to the U.S. for any reason. They should be treated over there. No one wants a panic. No one wants to push false information but it is happening. There are multiple sources stating it can spread before there are symptoms. This is not HIV and God - look at HIV only sexually transmitted killed thousands and is all over the U.S. It isn't over. Not with the new viruses, not with norovirus, not with smallpox, Avian. I am saying the next Pandemic will be a "Tuper"... that is to say 3 viruses traveling together and even able to communicate or take advantage of the co-infection. Few listened in 2009 to me. When there were 500,000 infected in N.Y., CDC was saying tens of thousands. My posts all over the net are in the thousands, many thousands. I said in Nepal that the encephalities component was added and it was. Now we have some strains with a triple punch - respiratory -intestinal- and neural. Ebola will mutate. In time it will become more airborne and maybe not as deadly, but still leave Africa - not if, but when. Medclinician Once more with feeling... |
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Medclinician - not if but when - original
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