Will be continuing this thread for 2017-2018. We have a really bad winter coming.

Medclinician

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/08/09/solar-physicist-sees-global-cooling-ahead/

To most of us the sun seems unchanging. But if you observe its surface, it is seething with vast explosions and ejections. This activity has its origin in intense magnetic fields generated by swirling currents in the sun’s outer layer – scientists call it the solar dynamo.

It produces the well-known 11-year solar cycle which can be seen as sunspots come and go on the sun’s surface.

But models of the solar dynamo have only been partially successful in predicting the solar cycle – and that might be because a vital component is missing.

After studying full-disc images of the sun’s magnetic field, Professor Valentina Zharkova of Northumbria University and colleagues, discovered that the sun’s dynamo is actually made of two components – coming from different depths inside the sun.

The interaction between these two magnetic waves either amplifies solar activity or damps it down. Professor Zharkova’s observations suggest we are due for a prolonged period of low solar activity.

Medclinician

Hothouse 2090: Category 6 Hurricane A Grey Swansong For Tampa

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/07/29/hothouse-2090-category-6-hurricane-a-grey-swansong-for-tampa/

mhhensel on facebook-links 

http://www.isthereglobalcooling.com/

There were three ice ages with more CO2 than today, one had fifteen times more.

CO2 has never been observed in the geological record to be a driver of the climate, even when levels were significantly higher than today.

CO2, by itself, can not cause much warming. For there to be dangerous warming, other things must occur, which would accelerate the warming, called positive feedbacks. The most likely is increased atmospheric water vapor. Positive feedbacks have not been observed to exist in the past and when CO2 levels were signficiantly higher than today. Atmospheric humidity is also actually in decline. link

Global temperatures were mostly warmer than today in the prior 8,000 years, the Holocene. link

Did you know that in the past the Roman Period and Medieval Period were both  warmer than today. The world then cooled several degrees from approx. 1450 to 1850. This period was called the Little Ice Age (a period of glacial advance, the same glaciers that have been in retreat until recently). Global temperatures the past 10,000 years were also often warmer than today.These temperature variations were not caused by man. They were caused entirely by natural forces.

Satori wrote: another inconvenient truth from the post "Peak Global Warming" "What we should now expect are rapidly declining global temperatures after February 2016, the apex of the 11-year cycle #24 solar heating." one of the main proponents of the "earth is cooling" theory said that starting in March of THIS year we would see "rapidly declining temperatures" hmmmm not so much we CONTINUE to set HIGH temp records around the world

It is because we are watching events which are melting things and destroying a balance which could spell dismal low temps in the U.S. in Europe. This may be regional and oddly as everone is sweltering in the heat, I sit by the ocean and it is cold here in Monterey. Why is that? 

76 degrees and it will be 53 tonight.  Despite the almost religious warnings of massive earthquakes and a like 4.6 in Eureka recently, nothing is shaking here either.

The ice caps are melting at an accelerated rate.

There will be no way to save coastal cities from massive flooding. If they don't freeze from a mini-ice age, they will drown.  Most of the population in the world, the major cities are close to water, ocean, or waterways. We cannot just move New York, LA, Seattle, or Chicago.  If it goes high enough, we won't need an earthquake to create seaside property in Death Valley.

Humans never have had or probably never will the understanding of that which goes beyond their personal lifetimes.

This is not old news. We may be on the verge of the next Ice Age. Perhaps the first warnings are now dated as is The Day After Tomorrow - but our climate in serious trouble. It is not just a matter of cursing the CO2 or companies putting out gases which may only account for less than 1% of the temperature changes. It is much like the weather predicting cloudy skies when there is pouring rain outside. A big weather convention - promiseds to change bus schedules and conserve energy as the Amazon rainforest is disappearing and that may ruinour oxygen supply. Yet,  the real question is and remains. Can we find a precadent in history where there was serious global warming before a serious ice age? The search continues. People are arguing still and not without reason. It can happen - not in a hundred years - but soon.

Subscribe to the Discovery Channel for more great videos such as this.
http://www.discovery.com/

Medclinician

"Are we on the verge of the next ice age or a great flood that may consume the world's coastlines?"
The Next Ice Age? - Warnings From the Ice - PBS (full length documentary). Thanks for watching

"But some scientists figure there are critical thresholds that once crossed could trigger the sudden change.

Jacksdad, what a smart mom you had/have! A chimney fire will take over a house very fast.

Now my friends who's parents NEVER cleaned their chimney lived in an old house with a stone fireplace that was 3.5 feet thick between rooms and 6 feet long all solid stone. You could see the fires they had at the top of the chimney which showed the burn. They were lucky the roof did not catch fire.

I do not want to have a problem if TSHSF.

Serious subject, I know, but it made me smile because it reminded me of my late Mother - one of her biggest fears was a chimney fire. We had coal fires back then, and if you built it up too high, she'd panic and get a spray bottle to douse it. As kids, we used to give her such a hard time over it because we'd never seen the damage they caused.

Well, to get ready for the possible mini ice age, I have a one/two man saw and I was going to get a hole put in for the second grip to make it a two man. However, it cost so much to put the hole in it I instead bought a two man saw. I have all the wedges and sledge hammers, splitters so I can get my own wood cut and split it.

My fall project is to make a foldable sawbuck. It looks pretty easy to make, and I will store it in my garage.

I just had my chimney sweep in to sweep and he helped my purchase all the stuff I need to clean my own chimney. I will not do my own sweep unless TSHTF but if you burn 2 cords you need to clean your chimney. Some people burn 4 cords a winter and would need to clean 2 times that year.

I feel pretty ready if things turn cold but if things turn hot, nothing you can do but have lots of spray bottles and netting to be able to sleep out side.

Are we headed for global cooling versus a current heat wave (dome) in New York and blistering temperatures throughout the U.S. this weekend? Could be. Not really giving up on the fact that the Gulf Stream continues to be diluted as the Norhern Ice Cap continues to melt and this could ruin what makes the East Coast and much of Europe warmer when it should be covered in ice.

A lot of money riding on the whole global warming myth which although it may be creating record temperatures globally, it would give us an "Ice Age" in the United States in Europe. Yes, we could still flee to the Tropics but this would be irrelevant if most of the big cities such as New York, Chicago, and D.C. airports were literally shut down.

So enjoy the balmy weather New York - well perhaps not enjoy the sweltering Heat Dome. Relief is on the way.

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2016/07/no_author/junk-scientists-flipflop-global-cooling/

These currents, which today drive the Gulf Stream, bring warm surface waters north and send cold, deeper waters south. But they weakened suddenly and drastically, nearly to the point of stopping, just before several periods of abrupt climate change, researchers report today in Science. In a matter of decades, temperatures plummeted in the north, as the currents brought less warmth in that direction. Meanwhile, the backlog of warm, southern waters allowed the Southern Hemisphere to heat up.

AMOC slowdowns have long been suspected as the cause of the climate swings during the last ice age, which lasted from 110,000 to 15,000 years ago, but never definitively shown. The new study “is the best demonstration that this indeed happened,” says Jerry McManus, a paleo-oceanographer at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and a study author. “It is very convincing evidence,” adds Andreas Schmittner, a climate scientist at Oregon State University, Corvallis. “We did not know that the circulation changed during these shorter intervals.”

…

Another question is whether the AMOC—currently known to be in decline—could drop off suddenly today, as depicted in the 2004 movie The Day After Tomorrow, causing temperatures to plummet across northwestern Europe. Schmittner says the past provides an eye-opener. “It’s evidence that this really did happen in the past, on short time scales.” But McManus says that studies looking deeper into the ice ages have found that the 1500-year climate oscillations tend not to be nearly as strong during interglacial periods. “It would suggest that this kind of thing isn’t so likely to happen today,” he says. On the other hand, he adds, “In most interglacials, Greenland didn’t melt … and Greenland is currently melting.”

Read more: http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/06/crippled-atlantic-conveyor-triggered-ice-age-climate-change

Medclinician

Once upon a time in the future - as they argued about global warming and predicted years of drought and pollution. Pop Secret - lemonade - dark chocolate and ...

https://www.amazon.com/Day-After-Tomorrow-Dennis-Quaid/dp/B000NDMRCS

Medclinician

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/06/30/the-mysterious-cold-blob-in-the-north-atlantic-is-starting-to-give-up-its-secrets/?postshare=2611467303077037&tid=ss_fb

from the post "Peak Global Warming"

"What we should now expect are rapidly declining global temperatures after February 2016, the apex of the 11-year cycle #24 solar heating."

‘99 percent chance’ 2016 will be hottest year

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2016/05/99-percent-chance-2016-will-be-hottest.html

March,April, continued to set record highs

interesting theory he puts forth

will have to watch things CLOSELY

if his theory is correct

we will know soon enough

thanks for the post

Interesting video ! Ignores CO2, methane, global warming gas and comes up with solar minimum/maximum that is not regarded as science for influence on global climate. 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/05/160509085744.htm

From 2002 to the beginning of 2016, the mass of the Antarctic ice-sheet decreased on average by about 100 gigatons a year. This mass loss equals 100 cubic kilometers of water. If this water volume was evenly distributed over the total area of Germany the resulting water layer would be 28 centimeters thick -- every year. This would translate into 0.27 millimeters over the ocean corresponding to 9% of the global mean sea-level rise.

comment: with decreasing temps coming from La Nina in the Gulf Stream there could be extreme global cooling. With extreme spin of the Global Warming situation, although perhaps not a true Ice Age, the cooling of what warms the U.S. and Europe could give us "Day After Tomorrow scenarias which icy temps.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/forecastmaps?LANG=en&UP=0&R=0&MORE=1&DAY=0&MAPS=over&CONT=euro&LAND=GL&TOFD=tag# and http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Greenland?symbols=none&type=lapse

Open thread for night owls: Exxon prepared for climate change while discrediting climate scientists

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/18/1487512/-Open-thread-for-night-owls-Exxon-prepared-for-climate-change-while-discrediting-climate-scientists

the big oil companies have simultaneously been lying about climate change while preparing for it

their actions constitute a crime against humanity and should be prosecuted accordingly

'It’s unraveling, every piece of it is unraveling, they’re all in lockstep together'

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/18/1487141/--It-s-unraveling-every-piece-of-it-is-unraveling-they-re-all-in-lockstep-together

Okay, maybe not the day after tomorrow, or even the day after that, but soon.  Yes, there is global warming and things are melting, but perhaps it is that which is about to take us into - another Ice Age.  Medclinician

 

Once more...

While global warming having been officially ignored by the political arm of the Bush administration, and Al Gore's conference on the topic during one of the coldest days of recent years provided joke fodder for conservative talk show hosts, the citizens of Europe and the Pentagon are taking a new look at the greatest danger such climate change could produce for the northern hemisphere - a sudden shift into a new ice age. What they're finding is not at all comforting.

In quick summary, if enough cold, fresh water coming from the melting polar ice caps and the melting glaciers of Greenland flows into the northern Atlantic, it will shut down the Gulf Stream, which keeps Europe and northeastern North America warm. The worst-case scenario would be a full-blown return of the last ice age - in a period as short as 2 to 3 years from its onset - and the mid-case scenario would be a period like the "little ice age" of a few centuries ago that disrupted worldwide weather patterns leading to extremely harsh winters, droughts, worldwide desertification, crop failures, and wars around the world.

Here's how it works.

If you look at a globe, you'll see that the latitude of much of Europe and Scandinavia is the same as that of Alaska and permafrost-locked parts of northern Canada and central Siberia. Yet Europe has a climate more similar to that of the United States than northern Canada or Siberia. Why?

It turns out that our warmth is the result of ocean currents that bring warm surface water up from the equator into northern regions that would otherwise be so cold that even in summer they'd be covered with ice. The current of greatest concern is often referred to as "The Great Conveyor Belt," which includes what we call the Gulf Stream.

The Great Conveyor Belt, while shaped by the Coriolis effect of the Earth's rotation, is mostly driven by the greater force created by differences in water temperatures and salinity. The North Atlantic Ocean is saltier and colder than the Pacific, the result of it being so much smaller and locked into place by the Northern and Southern American Hemispheres on the west and Europe and Africa on the east.

As a result, the warm water of the Great Conveyor Belt evaporates out of the North Atlantic leaving behind saltier waters, and the cold continental winds off the northern parts of North America cool the waters. Salty, cool waters settle to the bottom of the sea, most at a point a few hundred kilometers south of the southern tip of Greenland, producing a whirlpool of falling water that's 5 to 10 miles across. While the whirlpool rarely breaks the surface, during certain times of year it does produce an indentation and current in the ocean that can tilt ships and be seen from space (and may be what we see on the maps of ancient mariners).

This falling column of cold, salt-laden water pours itself to the bottom of the Atlantic, where it forms an undersea river forty times larger than all the rivers on land combined, flowing south down to and around the southern tip of Africa, where it finally reaches the Pacific. Amazingly, the water is so deep and so dense (because of its cold and salinity) that it often doesn't surface in the Pacific for as much as a thousand years after it first sank in the North Atlantic off the coast of Greenland.

The out-flowing undersea river of cold, salty water makes the level of the Atlantic slightly lower than that of the Pacific, drawing in a strong surface current of warm, fresher water from the Pacific to replace the outflow of the undersea river. This warmer, fresher water slides up through the South Atlantic, loops around North America where it's known as the Gulf Stream, and ends up off the coast of Europe. By the time it arrives near Greenland, it's cooled off and evaporated enough water to become cold and salty and sink to the ocean floor, providing a continuous feed for that deep-sea river flowing to the Pacific.

These two flows - warm, fresher water in from the Pacific, which then grows salty and cools and sinks to form an exiting deep sea river - are known as the Great Conveyor Belt.

Amazingly, the Great Conveyor Belt is only thing between comfortable summers and a permanent ice age for Europe and the eastern coast of North America.

Much of this science was unknown as recently as twenty years ago. Then an international group of scientists went to Greenland and used newly developed drilling and sensing equipment to drill into some of the world's most ancient accessible glaciers. Their instruments were so sensitive that when they analyzed the ice core samples they brought up, they were able to look at individual years of snow. The results were shocking.

Prior to the last decades, it was thought that the periods between glaciations and warmer times in North America, Europe, and North Asia were gradual. We knew from the fossil record that the Great Ice Age period began a few million years ago, and during those years there were times where for hundreds or thousands of years North America, Europe, and Siberia were covered with thick sheets of ice year-round. In between these icy times, there were periods when the glaciers thawed, bare land was exposed, forests grew, and land animals (including early humans) moved into these northern regions.

Most scientists figured the transition time from icy to warm was gradual, lasting dozens to hundreds of years, and nobody was sure exactly what had caused it. (Variations in solar radiation were suspected, as were volcanic activity, along with early theories about the Great Conveyor Belt, which, until recently, was a poorly understood phenomenon.)

Looking at the ice cores, however, scientists were shocked to discover that the transitions from ice age-like weather to contemporary-type weather usually took only two or three years. Something was flipping the weather of the planet back and forth with a rapidity that was startling.

It turns out that the ice age versus temperate weather patterns weren't part of a smooth and linear process, like a dimmer slider for an overhead light bulb. They are part of a delicately balanced teeter-totter, which can exist in one state or the other, but transits through the middle stage almost overnight. They more resemble a light switch, which is off as you gradually and slowly lift it, until it hits a mid-point threshold or "breakover point" where suddenly the state is flipped from off to on and the light comes on.

It appears that small (less that .1 percent) variations in solar energy happen in roughly 1500-year cycles. This cycle, for example, is what brought us the "Little Ice Age" that started around the year 1400 and dramatically cooled North America and Europe (we're now in the warming phase, recovering from that). When the ice in the Arctic Ocean is frozen solid and locked up, and the glaciers on Greenland are relatively stable, this variation warms and cools the Earth in a very small way, but doesn't affect the operation of the Great Conveyor Belt that brings moderating warm water into the North Atlantic.

courtesy of Thom Hartmann

further comment: The key question here is did a period of global warming precede the last Ice Age or at least a period of intense cold?  Can this happen in a few years instead of centuries?

Yes, the ice may be melting at the North Poles, but this very process could shut down the Gulf Stream. Even if this "Ice Age" were not global - it could seriously freeze most of North America and Europe. Granted people living in the Equatorial Regions might yawn yet as was portrayed in The Day After Tomorrow, we (in the U.S.) might find many of us on the Mexican border trying to climb and head south over the wall that Donald Trump intends to build.

One cannot help but see the irony here. There are more storms coming to New York and the East Coast. With its dense population and our vulnerable airports, they may bravely get through this Storm of the Century today, but more are coming.

point: Where we have an Ice Age that only effects the northern part of the U.S. and Europe when planes cannot even fly (as there was a period of serious ice shards downing jets) across the Northern Atlantic, it might be technically not an Ice Age, but New York won't think it matters.

I will proceed with my book, Coming of the Ice Age,  and serious belief that global warming may have proceeded the last Ice Age or at least where there was a flash freezing of dinosaurs standing munching on food when it hit.  Some say it was a comet that shifted our axis, but I rather think that our models are askew.

Weather is not rocket science and we cannot base our predictions on the database we have which only really extended on observable scientifically recorded weather for the last several hundred years.

Perhaps we won't have any glaciers in the Bay Area in California even if Northern U.S. becomes Snowland but sitting in a boat over where I used to live after the Great Earthquake of 2016 won't be much comfort.

Even more so -  telling a New Yorker when all the airports are shut down and warming current that had saved them is no longer working -"It's not an Ice Age - really we are in the middle of a period of global warming." won't seem that significant or even important.

Medclinician

This is all well and good but Denver is having a historic warm winter. We have a small snow storm then 45 - 55 degree weather.

We can't stop it look to China and all their pollution to the earth the U.S.A. does not do half as much pollution as China!

Did they know this storm was coming or were they able to predict it sometime before it hit? Not really. It was known as a "sleeping giant" and some will only say they think it was formed by a low pressure area which formed in the North Atlantic area off the coast.