Coronavirus: RoM

There does seem to be a bit of progress being made in treating this bug. That could be dropping the death rate. There could also be an attempt to cover up the deaths in China; which does have a well earned reputation for such things. Both - is the liklest reason.

I have also noted that the numbers of recovered is rising. This is great news. I have been arguing for, what seems like forever, that the time delay must be taken into account in calculating the death rate; well it also applies to the numbers of recovered. Both calculating the CFR by comparing cases to deaths and by comparing it to recovered numbers, is pointless as they only give you the extreme parameters within which said CFR can fall. This is not helpful (1 - 51% on current figures) as it is too vague. People take a very long time to recover from this bug; so the numbers are set to rise sharply now - maybe as exponentially as the case numbers.

That is absolutely true, Kilt. You could not be more right. I wish you were wrong and I could argue this one. No chance!

I know that the original study confirming asymptomatic contagion was flawed, but there is so much circumstantial evidence and such an apparently huge R0, everything just seems to keep on rising, and speeding up as it does.

I agree

Smart!

and or Africa

The most people to die of H5N1 flu was Egypt

Technophobe, BabyCat or Kilt5 or someone...
can you start to chart possible/confirmed cases in the USA (or Australia or?) just thinking if US is now where China was back in December - maybe if tracking & projecting numbers starting now will give us feedback on 'where' we're heading, better timeline of what to expect when.

Ie If you put USA known data onto an exponential chart - what number of confirmed cases could we expect at Feb end or March end? Then we could see how close it's following the curve outside China. Do you get what I'm trying to say/ask?

This is all that matters

Its not going gangbusters anywhere else but in China

There are currently 31,481 confirmed cases worldwide, including 639 fatalities.

In 5 days will it be double this? Will it be 60,000 cases and 1,200 dead?

There are currently 31,481 confirmed cases worldwide, including 639 fatalities.

I really can't see it just going away....

Aka SARS.......

BBC wrote: The third person in the UK to be diagnosed with coronavirus caught it in Singapore, it is understood. He is thought to have tested positive for the virus in Brighton before being taken to hospital in London.

Link to whole BBC article


About WHO: give them time! This is breaking news! Their "situation reports" are updated once a day so this news was not available then they issued their last report. If it is not in the next report then there would be a lot to complain about.

There are currently 34,957 confirmed cases worldwide, including 725 fatalities.

There are currently 40,554 confirmed cases worldwide, including 910 fatalities.

There are currently 42,729 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,013 fatalities.

I got a rate of 2.3

There are currently 44,754 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,112 fatalities.

The Flu is the main event - this is just a rehearsal

There are currently 60,017 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,355 fatalities.

There are currently 60,390 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,370 fatalities.

64,171 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,486 fatalities.

There are currently 66,907 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,523 fatalities.

Thank you Kilt5 for posting these. It is nice to have a record of the numbers, and a place to find the most updated numbers.

There are currently 69,036 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,666 fatalities.

 There are currently 69,269 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,669 fatalities.

There are currently 71,223 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,770 fatalities.