Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Coronavirus: RoM |
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Kilt5
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1,000 more cases and 100 more deaths - this is serious
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Kilt5
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Kilt5
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Kilt5
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Kilt5
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Kilt5
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Newbie1A
Adviser Group Joined: January 26 2018 Location: Alberta Status: Offline Points: 11180 |
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And this was Feb.4 - 14 days ago approx... Posted: 04 February 2020 at 3:21pm There are currently 23,867 confirmed cases worldwide, including 492 fatalities. So there's been lots of discussion re: figuring out CFR from 'when sick' to death total vs current number of sick to death total. So does 23,867 divided by 1775 for 13.44% make sense? Now 2 big problems I see with this- a) these are working off the 'official numbers' (enuf said) b) this isn't counting all the mild cases that were never diagnosed/not counted etc Still trying to figure out 'why' so deadly there and not elsewhere. Is it truly an 'Asian thing' (sorry - I know that's a terrible way to say it but no coffee and simply can't think of a better/more technical way) but I mean something there environmentally, or the lung proteins etc, or are all the videos' leaked on twitter, facebook etc horse pucky and something else completely is going on? |
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If it's to be - it's up to me!
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Spot on all around. There are far too many unanswered questions to get an accurate figure. The maths is good, the data crap.
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Usually, at the end of an outbreak, the true CFR emerges. Because of the discrepancy between date of infection and date of death, it always rises past the estimates made during the outbreak.
I don't know what this one will do. It could go up, hugely up, down or more likely than all those, never be truly known. China is so secretive! Real data is unicorn poo - or at least as rare. We are still guessing at the official R0 and that is only based on figures about a week behind symptoms appearing, not the longer period to death. The infection rate will have to be calculated from people outside China. 'And the cohort for that study is still quite small. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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pheasant
Admin Group Joined: May 20 2006 Location: Florida Status: Offline Points: 9851 |
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Don't forget, the official death toll does not count those who die untested (confirmed)....and with cremation capacity over stretched one can only guess. |
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Absolutely, but the untested who recover are not counted either.
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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Health report from China says over 80% of virus cases have been mild
By Marilynn Marchione AP CHIEF MEDICAL WRITER Health officials in China have published the first details on nearly 45,000 cases of the novel coronavirus disease that originated there, saying more than 80% have been mild and new ones seem to be falling since early this month, although it's far too soon to tell whether the outbreak has peaked. Monday's report from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention gives the World Health Organization a 'clearer picture of the outbreak, how it's developing and where it's headed,' WHO's director general said at a news conference. 'It's too early to tell if this reported decline will continue. Every scenario is still on the table,' Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said. The new disease, called COVID-19, first emerged in late December in Wuhan, the capital of China's Hubei province, and has spread to more than two dozen other countries. China says more than 70,000 people have been infected and 1,770 have died in mainland China, but numbers are squishy because the country is counting many cases based on symptoms rather than the methods WHO uses. The new study reports on 44,672 cases confirmed in China as of Feb. 11. The virus caused severe disease such as pneumonia in 14% of them and critical illness in 5%. The fatality rate for these confirmed cases is 2.3% — 2.8% for males versus 1.7% for females. That's lower than for SARS and MERS, two similar viruses, but COVID-19 ultimately could prove more deadly if it spreads to far more people than the others did. Ordinary flu has a fatality rate of 0.1% yet kills hundreds of thousands because it infects millions each year. The COVID-19 cases include relatively fewchildren, and the risk of death rises with age. It's higher among those with other health problems — more than 10% for those with heart disease, for example, and higher among those in Hubei province versus elsewhere in China. Cases seem to have been declining since Feb. 1, but that could change as people return to work and school after the Chinese holidays, the report warns. Also Monday, Chinese officials said they may postpone the country's annual congress in March, its biggest political meeting of the year. The standing committee for the National People's Congress said it believes it is necessary to postpone the gathering to give top priority to people's lives, safety and health, the official X inhua News Agency reported. The standing committee said it would meet Feb. 24 to deliberate on a postponement. The meeting is due to start March 5. Japanese officials, meanwhile, confirmed 99 more people were infected by the new virus aboard the quarantined cruise ship Diamond Princess, bringing the total to 454. The Health Ministry said it has now tested 1,723 people on the ship, which had about 3,700 passengers and crew aboard. Outside China, the ship has the largest number of cases of COVID-19. On Sunday night and Monday, 328 American cruise ship passengers arrived in the U.S., including 14 who tested positive for the virus and were taken to hospitals in California and Nebraska. Others were being quarantined at military bases in California and Texas. A charter plane dropped off 170 passengers at Travis Air Force Base in the San Francisco Bay area late Sunday, while another took about 145 passengers to Lackland Air Force Base in Texas early Monday. |
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CRS, DrPH
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Kilt5
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Kilt5
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Kilt5
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Kilt5
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2,000 dead
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Kilt5
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Kilt5
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Kilt5
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Kilt5
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Kilt5
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Kilt5
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EdwinSm,
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China's official figures (24.2.2020) of 77 262 cases and 2 595 deaths give a Confirmed Case Fatality Rate of 3,6%. This is nearly double what people are commonly reporting with the CFR being about 2%. Either this is too low, or China has not tested nearly half of its serious cases.
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Who knows? It's China!!!!
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Pandemic
Adviser Group Joined: January 31 2020 Location: UK Status: Offline Points: 2725 |
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Of course, stats can be quoted however, but if you fall into a certain category like 'aged' or 'vulnerable group' then these stats have little meaning. To quote an overall fatality rate or serious case rate is just that...OVERALL...
The %%%% is much higher in one cohort like 'over 60s' or 'ill group' though as we learning, not exclusively so!. Ive been reading in certain media that it is killing mainly the old and people who are ill ! This is little comfort. The tone of some people seems unempathic |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Oh yes! Lack of empathy does seem common where this is concerned.
Hubby and I are no Brad Pit and Angelina Jolie. We are not pretty, young or rich. But we are very much in love, have been since the day we met (literally!*) and the thought of one of us facing this life without the other is unbearable. We can't be alone in that. Many of us are old, or less than well, or both. We still matter. The thought of possibly losing FluMom's knowledge is scary in itself. * I was running a religious group. He came to visit (to vet us out; check we were not a dangerous cult!) and we spent the evening discussing string theory - and its effects on religion, superconsiousness and synchronicity. At the end of the evening we found we had been ignoring everyone else. You don't meet many religious people with an understanding of science. It turns out (for us) brains are the sexiest thing of all. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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FluMom
Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695 |
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If I go guys you will all be fine and so will I. I have Brest cancer and I am calm during that why, “If I die I will be with God and if I live I will be happy every day that I am here to be near my son .” Lol son is 2.5 hours away but I can talk to him. I learned by reading you guys will do the same if us old people go . Do not worry!
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BabyCat
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Thank you for your wisdom and guidance
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Never stop fighting FluMom. It would be a darker forum without you.
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Pandemic
Adviser Group Joined: January 31 2020 Location: UK Status: Offline Points: 2725 |
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Interesting observation:
Though early days, the fatality rate / serious case rate seems relatively higher in places like Korea and Italy, bearing in mind that the numbers have suddenly risen. I thought that deaths and serious cases are a late complication!. Any thoughts ? |
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pheasant
Admin Group Joined: May 20 2006 Location: Florida Status: Offline Points: 9851 |
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Agreed! |
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Kilt5
V.I.P. Member Joined: March 29 2017 Status: Offline Points: 5740 |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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Kilt, you have to realize that many cases are mild and not likely counted in the deonimator of the Case Fatality Rate (deaths/cases). I posit that the CFR is far less than the 2 to 3% being discussed in the media.
We won't know until much later, when more of the population at large has been tested for exposure. That being said, there are significant mortalities. I'd like to know more about the statistics on this (average age, preexisting conditions etc.)
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CRS, DrPH
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Kilt5
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JW
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
Crs- I have appreciated your posts. Above is a link that might help. Thank you.
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cobber
Admin Group Joined: August 13 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6035 |
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My calcs on CFR is around 0.3% 2-3% is wrong The R0 is R2.5 at a 10 day cycle. (it will vary country to country slightly) The severity of the virus and numbers ill at the same time is the biggest concern. It will rock financial markets hugely. The economy is at significant risk. The virus itself is a powderpuff. |
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Kilt5
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Kilt5
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There are currently 86,979 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,978 fatalities. |
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Kilt5
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There are currently 89,212 confirmed cases worldwide, including 3,050 fatalities. |
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Kilt5
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There are 95,429 confirmed cases worldwide, including 3,285 fatalities. |
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Kilt5
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cases 105,381
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