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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

scenario's

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2021 at 10:30pm

DJ,

A look at the january 13 numbers from [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

-Not yet record breaking number of new cases-745,811 is high (record is 839,340 from january 8). I expect the number of new cases soon to be over 1 million per day. 

-Record number of deaths at 16,362 (tested/reported) we most likely will go over the 2 million deaths today...

-South Africa is showing up in both cases/deaths top ten even with limited testing. There is some increase of cases in countries bordering SA suggesting the SA variant may be spreading north. But limited testing/reporting and hardly any sequensing is not giving a clear picture.

Other news-The EMA (European Medicin Agency)/EU is having talks with Russia over the Sputnik-5 vaccine. I would not be surprised if one or more Chinese vaccin producers are also invited for talks. 

China is now doing all kind of deals. One deal under discussion may be access for Deutsche Telecom for China if in return a Chinese telecom company could get access to Germany (and via Germany to Europe). Turkey is already using Chinese vaccins-there are talks over Chinese investments in infrastructure. (All TIP-Turkey-Iran-Pakistan countries use Chinese vaccins-with doors open to other suppliers. Cuba is working with Iran, AstraZeneca/Oxford (AZ/O) may get used in Turkey, Pakistan..)

Here in NL-out of worry for variants-there is discussion on stricter rules; curfews, no visitors etc. (problem is still a lot of people ignore these rules and get away with it). A political majority wants to stop all flights to and from the UK...several flights per day to Bristol, Glasgow, London still going on...

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB6GCnADmcg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB6GCnADmcg  ; 

 -China-seems to be an increase of reported cases in Bejing and near the Russian border-so there are lockdowns in some regions. (Number of cases jan12=55, 13=115 14=138+1 death so there is an increase over very limited numbers but China will /did impose restrictions to get the number of cases to 0). WHO team arrived in China to investigate "how it started" (DJ-Even if China would be an open book it may be hard to get that clear..). SinoVac vaccine in Brazil "only 50,4% effective-DJ-There is a struggle between bolsenaro promoting AstraZeneca and the governor of Sao Paulo promoting Chinese vaccins-Brazil numbers may not be the best. Turkey is claiming 91,25% effectivity...Countries have their own experts to take a look..) Indonesia also going for SinoVac

 -AZ/O asked for EMA aproval-EMA has been doing a rolling review-may accept AZ/O "soon" (Dr.J.C. 29th of january-today is 14th-there will be a lot of pressure from countries-I think it could be next week (from 18th january)...Since the EU is-after China and India the third largest market-with over 450 million people-AND AZ/O is easy to store/transport (AZ/O is a UK/Sweden vaccine) it may open the door to mass global production DJ-Allready 30 "partners" from the US to Russia, India are willing to produce the-easy to make-vaccine. 

 -Dr.J.C. disappointed about the slow reaction. AZ/O for the US may have to wait till the end of march ? DJ-Global vaccination on such a large scale is in a slow start. Pfizer and Moderna are not very practical due to deep-freeze storage/transport. (DJ-Big pharma did try to slow down AZ/O development-must be a MoA article somewere...) Sputnik-5 may still be with some production problems-Turkey was believed to start producing Sputnik-5 as well, SinoVac is available, cheap, easy to use/store..AZ/O will become another dominant vaccine. (If a vaccine does not do a proper job in several countries orders will get cancelled-soon there will be an over production of vaccines, a buyers market...)

 -Record low flu numbers-in part to lockdowns/NPI and the most prevalent flu-virus may not be very infectious/virulent (so a lot of immunity already there). 

 -US cases up 12,9% last week, positive test 12,7% over 120,000 in hospital (DOWN ! 0,1% since last week-only sickest patients remain in hospital) Deaths up 24,3% Vaccinations close to 10 million, another 1 million already had second vaccine. DJ-new (US) variants may have been spreading in the US for some time, some of those variants may be more agressive could become dominant variant. With some bad luck the US could become a mixing ground for all kind of variants-creating even more dangerous variants..(A nightmare could be a variant that evades PCR testing and (with that) most vaccines...so far the US -in absolute numbers-is leading in vaccinations wich also could "push the virus in new directions"-new variants and mass vaccinations in the best scenario (very optimistic) could help to end the pandemic..the worst-more realistic-given the history-is the virus "find new ways"to "do its thing"...

 -San Diego gorilla's positive for Covid19 based on symptoms. DJ- two out of eight showed symptoms, an employee tested positive but was a-symptomatic. They did not test the gorillas to avoid extra stress. Mild symptoms-troop is isolated..Dr.J.C. raises questions on animal reservoir for Covid19-in the UK foxes, badgers (DJ-also pets, cats seem to get it more easy then dogs..)

 - UK cases now between 45,000 and 50,000 per day. R0 between 1 and 1,4 (with a strict lockdown-in many area's people not allowed to go outside !) last week -0,5% increase of cases...(DJ then the R0 would be 1...) Over 32,000 in UK hospitals, almost 27,000 admitted last week, with almost 7000 deaths last week one may get a picture of what the perspective is for hospital cases...(DJ-Only the sickest stay in hospital-the most serious cases to die, others to get basic care...hospitals overstretched for weeks...staff is exhausted..) Number of deaths increased 45,6% in a week...(Dr.J.C. and will keep increasing for the coming weeks..)

Increase in cases=increase in hospital cases after 13 days=increase in deaths after 30 days...So the UK peak on deaths will be early february. Vaccinations by now over 2,5 million...

 -Sweden government website HAS info on cases etc. (DJ-Dr.J.C. did not look good enough or the website-design is not open enough...it would be nice if the WHO could think of a standard website used by all WHO members for better communications..) It looks like Sweden has a very limited English website and a better one in Swedish (with some langauge skills the basic info is understandable for non-Swedish speakers..). Dr.J.C. did get an email on Sweden variants, UK variant=25 8 of them no UK travel history, SA variant 2-both with SA travel history..)

 -A company from Bangla Desh is buying AstraZeneca vaccines (3 million dodes) to sell for profit...DJ-It would be a good thing if making profit out of a pandemic was forbidden !!! Big Pharma can start a pandemic out of greed. Pharma companies making/developing vaccines, tests, medication need to have their costs covered...till recent a lot of those companies were state-owned working for public interest not for shareholders profit...

WAR

[url]https://southfront.org/on-urgent-search-for-new-war-pompeo-alleges-iran-new-home-base-of-al-qaeda/[/url] or https://southfront.org/on-urgent-search-for-new-war-pompeo-alleges-iran-new-home-base-of-al-qaeda/ DJ-Every one with some basics on the story knows both al-quada and IS are CIA/KSA/Gulf States proxies...basicly meant against Russia-Iran-China. 

[url]https://southfront.org/u-s-declassified-its-indo-pacific-strategy-largely-focused-on-containing-china/[/url] or https://southfront.org/u-s-declassified-its-indo-pacific-strategy-largely-focused-on-containing-china/ 

It "would be welcome" if trump did not start another major war in his last days...

News on variants (a.o. from Malaysia) in latest news, war in World War 3 section.."good news" on the variants is many countries see-and fear-the new variants and are preparing to deal with it. Ireland had the misfortune of the UK variants mixing with Christmas and New Year-with also "to much room" for social events...Israel did attack-based on US intel-Iran positions in Syria  (near Iraq border) killing-according to some sources-over 50 pro-Iran fighters. US troops (against international law) in Iraq under increased pressure-also US forces (illegal) in Syria under both Arab and Kurdish pressure...with Turkey and Russia also wanting the US forces (stealing Syrian oil (for the CIA ?) out. 

Music; or sort of [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnT7pT6zCcA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnT7pT6zCcA Ode To Joy-Muppets...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2021 at 2:13am

DJ,

I was looking at the World War 3 section could not find it-did it disappear ? "Whowants yesterdays papers" ? (Well-I love "yesterdays papers...) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuyTZJyo-FY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuyTZJyo-FY Rolling Stones...

-Will RIC become ERIC ? 

Will Europe join Russia-Iran-China ? Some facts; "F..k the EU" US coup in Ukraine (under Obama) has a long lasting echo. The NPA spying on Merkel(s phone) also "did not improve EU-US relations...trump breaking the Iran-deal has already given "ERIC" some shape-since the EU, Russia, China also were partners in that deal-the US not only did break a deal with Iran...

Other "frustrations" [url]https://southfront.org/the-f-35-works-perfectly-fine-apart-from-its-nearly-900-deficiencies/[/url] or https://southfront.org/the-f-35-works-perfectly-fine-apart-from-its-nearly-900-deficiencies/, North/Turk stream...

Expressed in US$ the US still can dream the US is the #1 economy of the world. In "goods/trade" both China and EU are already larger then the US, India is expected to become #3 (after EU-China) within a decade...

US sanctions on EU companies working on Russian pipelines, China Huawei also did not improve EU-US relations, a trade war is "unwise"...

When you look at the numbers Russia is a minor player in the "ERIC" scenario. Its population of 145 million, economy not much bigger then that of Spain, the main role for Russia is being in the middle of EU-China and TIP(A) (Turkey-Iran-Pakistan (Afghanistan). The EU has a population of 450 million, TIPA around 440 million, China over 1,4 billion. 

Russia is well aware of its weak and strong points, both the location and energy are trump cards...For the EU Brexit did put Germany and France in a leading position-Italy in many ways on the same line. There is a shift from the North Sea towards the Mediterranean Sea...former French protectorates, Lebanon and Syria become interesting for their links with Middle East energy supply. Italy has historic ties with Libya. Turkey/Erdogan has dreams of a new Ottoman Empire...

Israel is "playing"both sides with using the US for weapons and protection while talking to Russia and China about investments...Europe in many ways as a main trading partner. Peace with some Arab states-presented by trump as a US victory-may in fact be the groundwork for growing Chinese and Russian influence. 

For oil producing countries the US increasing production (by fracking) was "not very welcome". Their main customer is China-that has a choice in whom to get its energy from and under what conditions... In fact the US-by increasing its oil production may have blown up the US-petro-$ ! 

Major energy consumers-both China and the EU-do not have an interest in supporting the US$. Also energy producers-Russia and Saudi Arabia as #2 and #3-also do not want to stick to the US$. Besides that US-energy (in the form of LNG) is more expensive then alternatives...

The US is trying to frustrate other countries (Venezuela, Iran) or trying to control the energy (Iraq, Libya) but that strategy is proving not effective and costly. The wars it creates have been going on for over a decade and only damages further the US interests...Other countries see what the US is doing to countries that do want to get away from the US-petro-$...China and Russia are making deals with these countries so Chinese and Russian companies (with protection) can do the exploration...

On top of these developments came the pandemic. The US came up with Pfizer and Moderna-expensive, unpractical vaccines. The "America First" strategy may have caused "difficulties"for the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine delaying production. When you look at the global situation China is selling/offering its vaccines in Latin America, most of Asia and Africa on a large scale. AstraZeneca/Oxford soon will become a second major player able to produce "hundreds of millions" of vaccines per year in over 30 locations..

With the UK out of the EU the Poland-Ukraine link may be "a bit of a problem" for better EU-Russia relations-but improving relations with Russia does not need to be the main goal...There is a southern alternative via TIP(A) with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as a main link between Europe and China. China is also a major investor in African (oil)infrastructure (also (rail)roads) and ports.

Like China the EU-to a certain limit-has a choice on where to get its energy from. It is in both "countries"interest to spread energy sources. Iran can be a partner but may have limited energy to offer. For China the South China Sea is important, for the EU Africa may be of growing importance (with China already a main investor in Angola, Mozambique). 

The US "is being in the way" for both the EU and China...by its actions the US is pushing not only Russia, Iran, China(RIC) towards each other-also Europe may be moving towards "ERIC"...

India-with Australia and Japan-for now-may be on the US side. Historical India has had good ties with Russia. Asia is a growing market..if Mohdi-and his Hindu extremist party-loses the election India will change its route. Indonesia is already doing lots of bussiness with both Russia (weapons) and China (energy). (In fact if China would pay Russia for Indonesian energy and Russia send weapons that triangle would get more simple...). 

Some Arab States feel a need to limit influence of both Iran and (still NATO) Turkey...competition means also support for IS actions all over Africa (with CIA support). Both that strategy is not interesting for a longer term...

Is there a way out for the US in this downward spiral ?-DJ-Yes I think so, words in stead of weapons...co-operation in stead of 'divide and rule'. There is a market for US energy-but it may be the US has to accept other currencies then the $. The "dream"of everlasting petro-$ is history-the sooner the US gets that the better...Latin America is not inhabited by "sub-humans"-a bit more respect for non US-citizens would be welcome...Again-Spain, Netherlands, the UK "once ruled the world" and manage-maybe even better-in a less dominant position. Being #1 is not always good...




We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2021 at 4:21am

According to Hal T, we're already at war....

Conspiracy theorists on social media wonder if Chinese troops have invaded Maine

The invasion tale apparently started soon after the earthquake with a broadcast the night of the earthquake by New Jersey radio host Hal Turner, a right-wing commentator who proclaims that he focuses on the news the media refuses to cover.

That night, he told listeners he had "devastating, dangerous, serious stuff to talk about" and proceeded to tell them that the site of the alleged quake was actually "an underground facility with Chinese troops inside the United States who had been brought by boat from the Bay of Fundy."

More than 50,000 of those troops died, he said, when the U.S. dropped a 30,000-pound, bunker-busting bomb on the facility to try to thwart a longstanding Chinese effort to take over America.

"Ladies and gentlemen, we got real trouble," Turner said. "I am the only media outlet reporting this."

https://www.stripes.com/news/us/conspiracy-theorists-on-social-media-wonder-if-chinese-troops-have-invaded-maine-1.655546

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2021 at 7:17am

ksc, 

-I (DJ) think HT often is "bonkers"....wonder why he is keeping Chinese forces planning to ivade the US via Canada...Is it a "personal form of insanity" or is there some "false flag idea" behind it ? Another way to create unrest is the "why" question [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/why-is-a-cobra-ball-aircraft-flying-over-des-moines-and-omaha[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/why-is-a-cobra-ball-aircraft-flying-over-des-moines-and-omaha ...(DJ Why not ? Because planes fly ? Maybe Des Moines and Omaha are nice places to see ?)

-[url]https://www.omropfryslan.nl/nijs/1024566-britske-coronafariant-yn-soarchsintrum-t-suyderhuys-yn-surhusterfean[/url] or https://www.omropfryslan.nl/nijs/1024566-britske-coronafariant-yn-soarchsintrum-t-suyderhuys-yn-surhusterfean ; The highly contagious British variant of the coronavirus has been detected in at least two residents of the residential care center 't Suyderhuys in Surhuisterveen. This is reported by the Quadrant Group, which includes the residential care center. Among 21 other residents who also tested positive for the coronavirus, the GGD assumes that they have the infectious variant as well.

DJ-In total almost a 100 patients and HCW-ers tested positive, if they all turn out to have the UK variant this outbreak in the north of NL may be the biggest cluster outside UK, Ireland, Israel ? When there also would not be a direct UK travel it would be a bigger problem..Day-to-day cases show slight increase in NL-may be a sign the UK variant might be increasing-since we do have a lockdown in NL and the UK variant is much in the news.

Another major outbreak in the north of NL is in Ter Apel where there is a prison for asylum-seekers that are supposed to be send away. Both prisoners and prison workers have been infected...not clear if that could be the UK variant as well. 

The Dutch CDC will study samples to see how many of them may have the UK variant....it is a major worry in NL. [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/14/rutte-begs-mps-block-curfew-2000-0400-considered[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/14/rutte-begs-mps-block-curfew-2000-0400-considered 

The NL trade unions want a better minimum wage-part of the problems with/in this pandemic is income inequality [url]https://www.voor14.nl/english_page[/url] or https://www.voor14.nl/english_page (voor14=for 14 %/hr bruto minimum wage to cover costs-including healthinsurance...Some "working poor" save money by getting no insurance...) 

-Also in Denmark/DK variants are increasing [url]https://www.covid19genomics.dk/statistics[/url] or https://www.covid19genomics.dk/statistics (via Flutrackers)....

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=171J_hC83XU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=171J_hC83XU should you treat fever or not ? No-it is a sign the body is fighting an infection. High fever is a problem-you may need a doctor but a bit of a fever for a few days may be helpfull fighting a disease...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2021 at 7:17am

Maybe India's rates will pick up (provided they test)  India's Kumbh Mela festival begins  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-55657711

"Hindus believe bathing will help them attain "moksha", setting them free from the cycle of birth and death. " Maybe they are looking for an early release from the cycle of birth and death?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2021 at 9:39pm

EdwinSm, I think testing/reporting in India is a problem. Most likely each state inside India has its own testing/reporting...info may go slow. Since it is such a large country with much room for animals to mix with people there most likely will be new variants spreading. I do think the UK and SA variants also will be spreading in India. 

One can compare the numbers with Africa...very limited testing gives very limited cases reported.

DJ

-The numbers for thursday january 14. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; USA still #1 in absolute numbers, UK in top 3 with both cases (even with strict rules for almost a month) and deaths. Brazil, Mexico reporting high numbers...

We did cross the 2 million worldwide reported Covid deaths (excess deaths worldwide could be (+)10%), Germany did get over the 2 million cases...China reported 144 new cases, yesterday it was 138, the day before 115. DJ-In urban area's China seem to have very strict controls-in rural area's it looks like there may be less control, more spread. We may need China to supply the world with vaccines, health care, medications-also to "restart" the global economy...

Variants must be spreading all over the globe. Germany may go for mandatory FFP2 masks for public transport and the very limited number of shops still open. France is going for an even stricter curfew-not allowed to go outside from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m.. Even NL may go for a curfew, stricter rules...News about the UK corona-disaster will have some impact on how people behave...(I think social media make communications harder-for some people reading two lines is reading a book. They need talking heads telling simple stories...)

The numbers for Ireland, Israel do look bad-both hard hit with the UK variant. Czechia also looking bad...(countries with-like the UK-already strong restrictions...and still it spreads)

[url]https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/13/covid-denier-fined-200-for-uploading-pictures-of-empty-hospitals-13897226/[/url] or https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/13/covid-denier-fined-200-for-uploading-pictures-of-empty-hospitals-13897226/ In the UK you can get punished for (on purpose) spreading false news on this pandemic.

[url]https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-40207043.html[/url] or https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-40207043.html ;

The Brazilian variant has three key mutations in the spike receptor binding domain (RBD) that largely mirror some of the mutations experts are worried about in the South African variant.

-

The E484K mutation has been shown to reduce antibody recognition, helping the virus to bypass immune protection provided by prior infection or vaccination.

-

Data also suggests the Brazilian variant has been detected in Japan.

DJ-There will be info on the differences between the SA variant and the Brazilian (and Argentina) one...but they may be "very related". I would not be surprised if the (Portuguese speaking) Brazil did import it from Southern Africa (Angola and Mozambiqua also Portuguese speaking countries exporting oil a.o.)

-Dr.John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UTC9hW_VsA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UTC9hW_VsA ;

 -A study on reinfections (in HCW-ers) has 0,66% of people reinfected (mildly) within a 5 month period. They still-after reinfection-may infect others. "Natural immunity"offers 83% protection, vaccination may offer 95% protection (depending on the vaccine). DJ This study can not have included variants-the risks for reinfection must increase due to those variants...another issue is "mild" reinfection will be the result if the reïnfected has had time enough to recover...if there still is a lot of damage I guess the outlook for getting reinfected is "less good".

Conclusion still-yes there is a chance for reinfection but less then 1% does get reinfected and often then only have mild (or no) symptoms. Since they do spread the virus any idea of "immunity pasports" is a bad one...

 -In the study they did think of immunity against the UK variant-since the immune reaction "detects" a lot of "parts" of the (variant) virus (DJ-and so far mutations are changing less then 0,1% of the "old" covid19 virus RNA) the idea is immunity (natural or by vaccine) may still be effective against the UK variant...DJ-"In the news" there seems to be a lot of worry over the SA and Brazil variant (with a very high degree of similarity)...so how certain are "the experts" on immunity against those new variants ? (HCW-ers are "not average citizens" in age, health, and-depending on the group gender-(HCWers may have women over represented compared to the general population)-so this is another side note-their (knowledge of) protection may be much better..)

 -Dr.J.C. Why there is a W.H.O. team (of virologists) in China if they only will (be able) to get China government evidence/samples ? (DJ-If you believe a lab-accident could be the reason for this outbreak are virologists the right persons to investigate ?)

 -Lebanon going for a FULL lockdown for 11 days-even closing supermarkets (you can order groceries-that will be delivered..). Healthcare over capacity...Around 50% of the population may not have money to get enough food for the duration of the lockdown...(DJ-Since both governments and farmers have an interest in food consumption there will be an answer possible-still some may break the lockdown..)

 -Dr.J.C. did get an email from Karley (? is that her name ? ) the Oregon front-line nurse. She did get her second vaccination. Still will stick to NPI-PPE use, social distance, handhygene etc...

DJ-There is discussion on NOT giving a second vaccination (in time) [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream does this increase risks for virus "evasion" of immunity, or new variants ? 

DJ-My impression is Dr.J.C. "needed" good news-and that is only human. Some countries are already in the "variant-tsunami" (UK, Ireland, Israel)-others soon will be..(including most of Europe, US, Canada...). It will "get ugly"...but after that maybe some better perspectives...

Music; Academy of Ancient Music/VOCES8 Bach [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7Wt02gTwg8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7Wt02gTwg8 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2021 at 9:18pm

DJ,

-When you get a bit of an overall picture of where we are now-that is what I try to create via scenario's-I can imagine "some panic and horror"...The point of being on this forum is try to get over these emotions and think !!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/904138-mmwr-emergence-of-sars-cov-2-b-1-1-7-lineage-%E2%80%94-united-states-dec-29-2020%E2%80%93jan-12-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/904138-mmwr-emergence-of-sars-cov-2-b-1-1-7-lineage-%E2%80%94-united-states-dec-29-2020%E2%80%93jan-12-2021 

DJ-Yes there are "new variants" as expected-not a surprise. Yes-these variants are more adepted for transmission in humans-again-they are believed to come from bats-humans are a "new host" also not very surprising...

Is there a problem ? Yes-and it is a big one ! Unless another variant will show up even spreading faster the UK variant of this corona-virus will become dominant in march in many places. To stop that-or at least slow it down-there are lots of things you can do !

-Stick to the rules ! Not-in the first place-because they are the law, or out of respect for the "experts" but because these rules make sense !!!

-Virusses are not tiny little birds flying around, they need transport. If "we are not moving" they can not find new hosts-so less mobility helps !

-They need hosts so they can get into the cells to start reproduction. Social distancing does not provide them with these new hosts !

-Ventilation can keep the number of virusparticles in a room low-the lower the viralload the less severe the illness !

-Masks help !!! Better masks help better !!!! The easiest way a virus can get into your body is via your mouth and nose-so cover them ! And yes-around 60% of the virus spread is from people (still) without symptoms-so a mask can also limit the virus you may be spreading if you are infected. 

-Inform yourself. Good enough most people infected do NOT end up in hospital or die !!! For a lot of people this SARS-2 turns out to be "a bad flu", some are even more lucky and get no, or mild symptoms...Still SARS-2=NOT a FLU !!! It is a new virus that means it can infect most of humans and may jump to other species. We are over 2 million deaths by now-a "normal" flu year may see 0,5 million deaths worldwide...

-If you can try avoid getting infected. The virus can cause inflamations all over the body, have long term healthissues-you do NOT want to get it !

-The problem with this coronavirus-as a new virus-is also in the numbers...hospitals/ICU's have a limited capacity. Some countries went for a "herd-immunity" scenario (totally insane-but most western countries did go for that road..) If 5% of the total population of a country needs hospitalcare within a year there is no room, no capacity, for that...!

-Respect HCW-ers, law enforcement, people working in shops/supermarkets-they run an increased risk FOR YOU !!!

-THINK !!!! Do NOT panic !!!! Panic is the last thing we need right now...We are in the middle of an unfriendly enviroment and have to try to survive...get to know your enviroment, observe...communicate... 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2021 at 10:02pm

DJ

I believe the best way to avoid panic is honest information-even if that info in itself is terible...When you are in the middle of a wildfire it may be to late to act. When you see the fire coming there are things you can do to increase your chances of survival...

-Are there major problems ? Yes...approved vaccines are running out. In Europe some countries are switching to Russian and Chinese vaccines that are available...both the FDA and EMA  are not able to move fast enough to approve vaccines...

But there may be some "good" reasons for that;

-1 A weak point in a lot of vaccines is that you need TWO vaccinations with a three/four (maximum 12) week gap between them to get 100% immunity. During that gap you may get the virus. There are signs [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus/page30?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus/page30?view=stream that during that gap vaccinated people still get infected (but less-and often with less severe outcome-as expected) but the first vaccination may already influence (mutate ?) the virus...

-2 [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/904167-new-coronavirus-variants-could-cause-more-reinfections-require-updated-vaccines[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/904167-new-coronavirus-variants-could-cause-more-reinfections-require-updated-vaccines ; When the number of COVID-19 cases began to rise again in Manaus, Brazil, in December 2020, Nuno Faria was stunned. The virologist at Imperial College London and associate professor at the University of Oxford had just co-authored a paper in Science estimating that three-quarters of the city’s inhabitants had already been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the pandemic coronavirus—more than enough, it seemed, for herd immunity to develop. The virus should be done with Manaus. Yet hospitals were filling up again. “It was hard to reconcile these two things,” Faria says. He started to hunt for samples he could sequence to find out whether changes in the virus could explain the resurgence.

On 12 January, Faria and his colleagues posted their initial conclusions on the website virological.org. Thirteen of 31 samples collected in mid-December in Manaus turned out to be part of a new viral lineage they called P.1. Much more research is needed, but they say one possibility is that in some people, P.1 eludes the human immune response triggered by the lineage that ravaged the city earlier in 2020...

DJ In Brasil people that were infected by the older variant of Covid19/SARS-2 did get infected with the new Brazilian variant. Since the SA variant has even more mutations-though in many ways the Brasil-variant may have come from the SA variant-present vaccines and "natural" immunity "may not offer well enough protection"...

-3 DJ-I am NOT an expert, NOT a doctor-but mutations may mean some segments get deleted-are gone. This can make the virus lighter, spread further, keep it in the air longer, make masks less effective. [url]https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-face-mask-face-shield-ffp2-n95-kn95-whats-the-difference/a-52291265[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-face-mask-face-shield-ffp2-n95-kn95-whats-the-difference/a-52291265 A smaller virus may infect more people-be part of the story why these new variant-virus spread faster. 

So-YES-there are major problems...! The solutions are also there...we can change the vaccines able to deal with the new variants. Most likely that proces is already on its way. It will also increase production capacity..Better masks, more distance, NO social contacts (inside your house/safe place) also help. 

I do not like "good news stories" based on ignoring the facts...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ these numbers are "not good". In the coming months the numbers may get (far) worse...

DJ-We may have to face over 1 million infections per day later on this month, tens of thousend dead per day...News of hospitals running out of capacity may make people take the situation more serious. 

It may even make some politicians stop most of (air)travel...We have seen pandemics in the past and should have learned from them. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2021 at 10:44pm

DJ

-Another look at the numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.. In the new cases list Brazil is at #2-with very high-over 68,000-number of new cases. The UK has-at #3-over 55,000 new cases...both high numbers are linked to new variants spreading. The sad news for the UK is they already have had a strict lockdown-in most regions for over a month. Still such high numbers. 

South Africa has almost 15,000 new cases...at #12. In "new deaths" UK at #2, Brazil at #3, Germany at #4...also here in NL several reports of the UK variant showing up. South Africa at #6. 

The total global numbers not yet record breaking. Here in NL "people are getting tired of testing" but also-for now, number of positive tests are going down. For now the lock down has some effect. They are planning (much) stricter rules (DJ-Still airports are open, there is a lot of global traffic-spreading the virus...that is unacceptable!)

China reported 130 new cases-yesterday they had 144, the day before 138...with some luck (and clear policy) they can get this under control. 

-Dr John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQJ1kUiXlYU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQJ1kUiXlYU ;

DJ-"Follow the evidence"is a nice idea-but by the time there is evidence there is a problem...I believe in simple. In summer do not leave flammable goods outside-you do not have to see a wildfire yet-just use common sense. Precaution, prevention can avoid "getting evidence". I do not "want proof of a pandemic" since I do not want this pandemic !

-Karly-the Oregon/US nurse did get here second (pfizer) vaccination yesterday. In the night she had a headache, some sleeping problems. This morning still some pain in the (injected) arm-but for the rest feeling much better and safer..She did take a few days of from work because this vaccine does have a bigger impact then a flu-shot. 

(DJ-In Norway over ten old vulnarable people died after vaccination. Not every type of vaccination may be suitable for all kinds of people. They will rethink their vaccination strategy. For some people it may be wiser to get the people around them vaccinated-and keep the most vulnarable a bit more isolated from infection risks..)

-Virusses love sport-events ! Yes, the Australian Open, UK football, Japan Olympics are a great way to worsen the pandemic ! A great way to create more variants ! And yes-if your country is not suffering enough-start another global sportsevent in your country to make things worse...(DJ-politics....        )

DJ-I admit I have some prejudice against "sports"..brains and sports do not mix. I know it is incorrect-there are more then enough intelligent people in sports but why do sportsevents go on during a pandemic ? 

-Brazil, Dr.J.C. plays a social media clip (also used by the BBC). DJ-Dr.J.C. misses/ignores some facts...;

  1-In Manaus/Amazone region massive RE-INFECTIONS !!! People often did have the older variant in spring 2020. The new variant does not seem to care, there is no immunity against this new variant.

  2-NO !!! The brazil variants has had TWO mutations at the receptor binding domain(RBD)-the  viral connection point to human cells. The UK variant has had "just"one. So the Brazil and UK variants are "not the same thing". The SA variant even had THREE mutations at the RBD...there are very serious concerns because if people get reinfected at a large scale from the Brazil and SA variants we need to "update"the vaccines...

and 3-Manaus is very remote in the jungle-lots of traffic via the rivers. Oxygen has to come in (limited) via air, most by boat. Via roads it may take days...

-UK stopped (direct) airlinks with South America, Southern Africa and Portugal "claiming it has some use in stopping the variant". DJ-It is to late for that...the SA variant is in many places already-with three major mutations that one is worse the the Brazilian one. Indirect links are still open. It is very likely the Brazil-variant is spreading in Latin America and-by now- very likely to be in the US. So if you want to keep variants out stop airtravel ALL airtravel !

-Dr.J.C. pro-activity is needed, governments keep running behind the facts. Dr.J.C. is "optimistic on the vaccines" since it is supposed to deal with the virus at several segments. (DJ-Also in the variants less then 0,1% change from the "older variant"-in theory it should protect. Dr.J.C. is correct virusses get less virulent over time-but we may not have seen the worst of this virus yet..)

-China did send over 20,000 people from rural parts to quarantine locations. Over 20 million people in strict lockdown. In the past that strategy worked (DJ-But it will be a challange to deal with new variants...Chinese New Year is coming-to stop spread travel restrictions are very tight..)

-UK variant may have been in Italy already in august (DJ-history most likely will go further back. There were some reports from Brazil going back to april 2020...Using the "tree-model" one can imagine there were some mutations early-some extra mutations made it more easy to spread..so several steps. But "we do not blame the Spanish for "Spanish Flu" it is a name-goes also for variants getting country-names..)

-UK cases yesterday were over 55,000-so Dr.J.C. may be a bit to optimistic on UK numbers staying around 45,000 per day as the previous days had...(may be related to testing/reporting. Healthcare may put some priority in treating not in testing ?)

-US cases increase 4,4% in one week. Hospitalcare overstretched (Dr.J.C. one nurse on FOUR icu patients is an impossible job). DJ-Worldometer has 24 million US cases out of a global total of 94 million cases. US has over 400.000 deaths, 20% of the global-just over 2 million deaths..the US has 4% of the global population. One reason why US numbers are this high is US is doing a lot of testing, another reason for high US numbers is lack of any national strategy...

-Dr.J.C. does not mention the two (supposed) US variants, he is worried of other variants spreading/mixing in the US (DJ-Lets be real-with the amount of travel and variants being around in december-variants are very likely to be spreading in the US. I did not see any news on the "US variants" but I would not be surprised it could be already known variants imported into the US..)

-Vaccinations still slow (DJ-Even far from perfect people may be better off with some protection-vaccinated-then without. It seems to protect against the UK variant. Protection against the Brazil and SA variant is still unclear. There can be other-local-reasons why SA and Brazil regions have such high numbers of (re ???)-infections...So get vaccinated if you can !

-Indonesia; Jawa/Java is one of the most densely populated islands in the world. outdoor masks mandatory. Chinese vaccines and AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccines-programs are getting started this month. DJ Indonesia has a population of over 275 million-so most likely the around 100 million people on Jawa/Java will get vaccinated earlier...In Indonesia vaccinating those that spread the virus get vaccinated most early (others then Europe/US-where most vulnarable get vaccinated).

-Germany-high number of cases; Dr.J.C. UK variant spreading. Portugal may have Brazil variant-strict lockdown. Hungary may go for Chinese vaccins...

DJ The outlook is bad..there will be hard months coming-but most likely better days to follow this year...

Music-to get away for some minutes...spot the stars Rolling Stones-Sympathie for the devil [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jwtyn-L-2gQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jwtyn-L-2gQ 



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2021 at 6:17am

While pandemic news makes the headlines-there is still other news;

[url]https://southfront.org/israel-united-states-unite-efforts/[/url] or https://southfront.org/israel-united-states-unite-efforts/  ;

The first two weeks of 2021 have, so far, been marked by an incredible increase in Israeli activity in the skies over Syria.

The most intense strike took place on January 13 morning hitting multiple Syrian and Iranian-affiliated targets in the province of Deir Ezzor, including the underground base of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Corps near al-Bukamal.

The pro-opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that Israeli strikes have killed 57 and wounded another 37. Pro-government sources confirmed only 5 casualties.

The airstrikes were so numerous that even Abu Yatem al-Katrani – the commander of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) 4th Brigade was killed in an airstrike.

The Israeli operations were carried out with the assistance of the United States – it provided intelligence and Israeli struck on them. Former CIA Director, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was reportedly discussing the airstrikes with Yossi Cohen, chief of Israel’s spy agency Mossad.

The US support of Tel Aviv’s aerial raids is a clear message to Iran, and is a very open support to Israel’s undeclared war against Iran, which it has been waging in Syria since hostilities began.

DJ-It of course is also a message to Russia, China...

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/01/2020-hottest-year-on-record.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/01/2020-hottest-year-on-record.html ; DJ There is a link with pandemics. Wildlife is being pushed out of its habitat, natural balances are getting more and more out of balance...



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2021 at 10:47pm

DJ

-Another look at numbers [url]https://sputniknews.com/world/202101161081789867-chinese-scientists-military-warn-coronavirus-death-toll-could-more-than-double-by-march/[/url] or https://sputniknews.com/world/202101161081789867-chinese-scientists-military-warn-coronavirus-death-toll-could-more-than-double-by-march/ and [url]https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3117784/coronavirus-death-toll-could-hit-5-million-march-chinese[/url] or https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3117784/coronavirus-death-toll-could-hit-5-million-march-chinese ;

By the beginning of March, the death toll from Covid-19 could rise to 5 million – from just under 2 million on Thursday – according to figures calculated by a team from China’s Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), People’s Liberation Army and public health research institutes.

-

More than 92 million cases have been reported around the world, but that number could rise to 170 million in early March, with the United States likely to be the worst hit, according to Xu’s estimate.


In the worst case, the number of US cases could hit 32 million, or about 20 per cent of the world total. India, Brazil and Russia would be the next worst hit, with 15.5, 15 and 6 million cases respectively.

Even in the best scenario – with governments implementing effective measures, people obeying rules such as social distancing and wearing masks, and massive vaccination programmes taking effect – the study said a further 300,000 people would die from Covid-19 by early March.


To achieve the best scenario the US would have to keep its cases at about 26 million, or no more than 3 million new infections in the intervening weeks, the study said. The US reported more than 1.7 million cases last week alone.

A researcher at the Institut Pasteur of Shanghai who is investigating the coronavirus but was not involved in the study, said that if 5 million people died by March, it could lead to the collapse of the global health care system.


“People die en masse when they cannot get even the most basic care in hospitals,” said the person, who asked not to be named.

The current global fatality rate of Covid-19 is 2.1 per cent, according to figures from Johns Hopkins University in the US. A rise in the death toll to 5 million would represent a death rate of 3 per cent, which was about the level in  when hospitals were overwhelmed by the then new disease.



DJ-From Sputnik;

The virus’ continuing mutation is another major problem, according to Xu and his colleagues, with researchers saying it could become a permanent seasonal phenomenon if it adapts to hide effectively in the human body. With this in mind, the researchers suggested that even China’s comparatively successful strategy of strict, pinpoint containment may prove ineffective.

At the same time, the researchers warned Chinese authorities against launching mass vaccination campaigns in areas with few or no cases, saying the disease’s ongoing mutation could see mutated strains "cheat" the human immune system and spread more easily, worsening complications.

The researchers published their findings in Disease Surveillance, a Chinese peer-reviewed journal.

So to name some problems; mutations, number of cases above capacity, lack of will to follow rules...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2021 at 11:13pm

DJ

A look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ new cases list may give some insight on variant-spread. Many countries now have already lockdowns/NPI wich in earlier phases did reduce new cases. That does not seem to work that good any longer. UK in top 3 for both new cases and deaths, Brazil at #2 for cases,#4 for deaths...

Looking at the numbers Mexico is over represented. How many variant cases are there in Mexico-what kind of variants are that ? South Africa has a smaller population, less testing-still high numbers...

Russia and Germany have been in the top 10 region-due to their larger population but also show increase of cases. 

In NL [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/16/dutch-government-will-keep-schools-closed-past-jan-25-report[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/16/dutch-government-will-keep-schools-closed-past-jan-25-report ; About 200 people in the Netherlands are known carriers of the B117 mutation, a spokesperson for the RIVM told newspaper AD, up from under 100 earlier in the week. 

DJ-Most of the found cases did NOT have any travel-link with the UK !!! Also other countries report increases of the UK variant-and in much lower numbers the SA variant. The only reason why the UK variant may not become dominant in the America's, Europe, Asia is "another variant" manages to spread even faster...It is good governments go for much stricter rules-they better look at what the UK, Ireland, Israel has seen and are (not) doing...

By the way: Worldometers report numbers from midnight in the UK to midnight in the UK. Their definition of countries may differ from that used by others. They include overseas parts of the US in the US numbers..etc. If you would work on other defenitions you get other results-but the trends are the same. "Record number of cases" may depend on what time you use.

Dr.John Campbell with another update [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48FqFqd0MvI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48FqFqd0MvI ;

-A study on using bloodplasma from people who revored from Covid19-full of anti bodies-in patients still fighting the infection in hospital did not find any difference between those who did get the plasma and those who did not. They looked at over 10,000 patients-also looked for "sub-groups" but statisticians could not see any difference/benefits...Subgroups could be obesity, gender, racial, age-but "the big data" did not find anything. (DJ-Statistics has to be used in dealing with a pandemic. Working on models for lockdowns statistic models are the basics....closing schools bring down the R0 with 0,1, a curfew may add 0,1-closing pubs, restaurants, cinema's also reduces the R0. So if the UK variant has a R0 0,4/0,7 higher to get the same effect from earlier lockdowns what further steps to take...no visitors in your house, closing supermarkets, stay at home-orders etc...are all tools based on statistics..)

-Dr.J.C. takes a moment to think about the 1873 patients that died during this study. They did not know (double blind) if they were getting anti body plasma or not. May have lived if the blood plasma approach had worked...Dr.J.C.was hopefull about the antibody-plasma theory. The study followed patients 28 days-before making a report-but will keep an eye on later developments-maybe something statistical significant could come out later on (DJ like less long-covid in one group or so..)

-Dr.J.C. believes this UK study was the largest on anti-body blood plasma. The findings mean other countries do not need to this kind of studies any longer...DJ-He is touching a major problem. One would expect science to follow international studies. But since getting funding for studies may take some time, "tunnelvision" several countries will go on with their studies and most likely get the same results as the UK study. No doubt even new studies will start repeating what already has been done...

-UK recovery studies looked at how good treatments work. They tried a lot HCQ showed NO benifit, Dexamethasone did show benefit. (DJ-Of course they do not at random use all kind of drugs-they make a science-based assesment of what may, or may not be helping..) DJ-Since PP is that positive over Ivermectin did [url]https://www.recoverytrial.net/news[/url] or https://www.recoverytrial.net/news try that ?  (Did not see it on the site..) Why they are studying Asperin now ? I would have expected things like Asperin, Paracetemol, Iboprofen-most used easy to get medication would be top of the list...

-Dr.J.C. ends with people getting vaccinated all over the globe. DJ-India is starting a vaccine program vaccinating 300 million people in several months-may be one of the largest vaccination programs ever..Dr.J.C. also mentions his mother did get vaccinated.."she is even older then him  !" (I would not expect anything else..)

DJ-There have been reports of 13 people dying after vaccination in Norway, 10 in Germany...vaccination is NOT risk-free. As everything in life it is balancing. What are the risks of a vaccine against what is the risk of NOT getting the vaccine...Vaccines most likely are far from perfect. They may be less effective against some variants. But news about large scale reinfections is "relative" natural immunity may not be good enough after several months to defend against new variants...

Dr.J.C. is right in stating these new variants mean keeping a social distance of 1,5 or 2 meters/6 feet may not be enough. Certainly indoors if you can take much more distance...If you have to go to a supermarket-can not get groceries delivered-go on a quiet moment to a quiet supermarket. I prefer smaller supermarkets so I can be outside faster...and of course-masks-as part of a larger strategy-do help !

-WAR

[url]https://southfront.org/in-video-expansion-of-chinas-high-speed-rail-network-2003-2020/[/url] or https://southfront.org/in-video-expansion-of-chinas-high-speed-rail-network-2003-2020/ DJ-trump is in his last days as US president...he may leave Biden with a horrible legacy in the US with an out of control pandemic, a divided states. Will trump also start a major war-to damage Biden ? 

In Germany (Russian speaking) Angela Merkel will step down in september. The EU is led by Germany and France-now the UK is out of the EU-will RIC become ERIC ? (Europe/EU-Russia-Iran-China). With the Biden gevernment putting "f..k the EU" victoria N(uland) in a high position we may find out how big the gap between Europe/EU and the US did get. DJ-It is simply incorrect to blame trump for the long term damage showing up, trump is a symptom-not the disease !

Music-over half a century old [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcTrsP_ny6o[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcTrsP_ny6o The Seekers - Isa Lei, another world...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 17 2021 at 10:22pm

DJ,

Part of my "pandemic breakfast"is "eating info"...To start positive; 

-Around the globe in many places all kind of vaccinations have started. Far from perfect, some vaccines my be to risky for vulnarable elderly, some variants may be able-in part-to evade the vaccines-but the number of people vaccinated worldwide must be above ten million by now...in combination with "natural immunity" (after (recent) infection) this could slow down the pandemic...

-Also mass media, politics, slowly take the pandemic news more serious. Still slow in translating it in effective restrictions/rules-my impression is the general public may "start getting the message" (even if they do not like the message...due to poor communications still a lot of younger people believe they run no/small risks-while they slowly are becoming the motor in virus spread...)

-We do seem to get a better idea on effective treatments...knowing what does NOT work is also a step forward...(blood plasma with anti bodies from recovered patients does NOT show any effect...that strategy can stop.)

The numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for sunday january 17;

-Weekend numbers are always lower then average-in most new cases the UK and B (Brazil) variant show up, SA/South Africa-with less testing is at #10 in new cases #9 in new deaths...DJ-There is some discussion on how much more infectious the "new" variants are-what part of the high numbers can be related to christmas/new year extra spread. DJ-In the first week of this year (according the NL OMT=Outbreak Management Team numbers) in NL the UK-variant was 10% of all new cases. In testing of over 1800 samples also 3 SA variants were detected. (DJ-With historical links to Surinam, also travel to Dutch Antilles the B-(Brazil) variant most likely has to be in NL).

-When you look at "cases per million" the US is at #7. "The only other real country" doing worse is Czechia at #4 (the other "countries have a population below 1 million-Czechia has 10 million+). In the US 7,4% of the population (once) tested positive (73,726 on 1,000,000=7,4%).

-In the "deaths-per-million" list Belgium has 1756 dpm (but they include ALL people who died after testing positive-a very wide definition of "case"), Italy 1360 dpm, Czechia 1338 dpm, UK 1311, USA 1226, Sweden 1019, Switzerland 999, Brazil 984 (with very limited testing), NL 758. 

-DJ-The "political factor" is not only a US,UK problem-in Brazil Sao Paula may have much more testing. The vaccination (with SinoVac and AstraZeneca) for now only is in Sao Paulo. The "SP" governor is running against Bolsenaro. On "SP"; [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%C3%A3o_Paulo_(state)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%C3%A3o_Paulo_(state) ;

São Paulo (Portuguese pronunciation: [sɐ̃w̃ ˈpawlu] (About this soundlisten)) is one of the 26 states of the Federative Republic of Brazil and is named after Saint Paul of Tarsus. A major industrial complex, the state has 21.9% of the Brazilian population and is responsible for 33.9%[6] of Brazil's GDP. São Paulo also has the second-highest Human Development Index (HDI) and GDP per capita, the fourth-lowest infant mortality rate, the third-highest life expectancy, and the third-lowest rate of illiteracy among the federative units of Brazil. São Paulo alone has a bigger economy than ArgentinaUruguayParaguay, and Bolivia combined.[7] São Paulo is also the world's twenty-eighth-most populous sub-national entity and the most populous sub-national entity in the Americas.

With more than 46 million inhabitants in 2019, São Paulo is the most populous Brazilian state, the most populous national subdivision in the Americas,[1] and the third most populous political unit of South America, surpassed only by the rest of the Brazilian Federation and Colombia. The local population is one of the most diverse in the country and descended mostly from Italians, who began immigrating to the country in the late 19th century;[8] of the Portuguese, who colonized Brazil and installed the first European settlements in the region; indigenous peoples, many distinct ethnic groupsAfricans, who were brought from Africa as slaves in the colonial era and migrants from other regions of the country. In addition, ArabsGermansSpanishJapaneseChinese, and Greeks also are present in the ethnic composition of the local population.


-Dr. John Campbell; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GQfPgaE4sA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GQfPgaE4sA

 -In the US it looks like numbers-for now-could be decreasing, stabilizing-but Dr.J.C.; The US may be at a position where the UK was end of november-bofore new UK variant did "explode cases"...DJ-For that matter a Biden presidency, 100 million vaccinations in 100 days is more then welcome-you need a NATIONAL strategy-with lockdowns etc to deal with the new (and coming) variants..Biden will use national war-time laws to take fedral control over production (I gues of vaccines, testing, PPE, medical gear etc.) I think he has made dealing with this pandemic (national AND international) priority #1 (As it should be...)

 -Dr.J.C. has trouble finding good US data, one of his sources (The Atlantic) still had cases increasing, the CDC has other numbers-DJ-for the US there are a few other things to consider-the time zone you use makes a difference and also the definition of what is the US-is it including US Virgin Islands, Samoa etc. or not ? Does it include US military bases (in and outside the US) ? 

DJ-I choose worldometers because it is simple and can give a lot of worldwide info. It has been around for "decades"for population statistics...but it is "far from perfect" (DJ-One improvement could be monthly global trends...on the other hand that would make using it extra complicated.) [url]https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend[/url] or https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend for more info (does not reflect full impact of variants).

 -In the US over 10 million people first vaccination, over 10 million second vaccination. "That train is moving" and will have an impact (DJ-reality check-it will also have an impact on how the virusses develop. Some variants may evade vaccinations (in some subgroups...DJ-False optimism undermines support for needed action. I did already again see "summer will bring numbers down"-we have heard that last year...)

 -UK, Patients being spread all over the country. At this moment over 750,000 people infected but the R0, new cases trend is going down, Still a lot of the high number of cases will need hospital care, (13 days gap between first symptoms and hospital admission. Since there is a 30 days gap between first symptoms and (a small group) dying the number of deaths will remain high till mid february...

DJ-One of the mistakes-as a red line in this pandemic-has been reopening to soon. "Saving the economy may destroy that economy !!!". Due to economic pressure, pandemic fatigue and "political need for positive action" we keep repeating this mistake-I expect that mistake again in february/march...

 -DJ-Dr.J.C. is using data showing cases going down last week. In my opinion "going for evidence" the way he does is "selective". We are now in a phase-two of this pandemic with number of variants most likely to escalate. The ONLY way to get a grip on that (and I am NOT an expert) is a long term strategy. Make plans for dealing with this pandemic for ALL of 2021, not just a few weeks forward. You need to get the R0 at 0, ZERO !!! Not "just under 1"!!!!

It is good to see the UK manages to most likely maneuver itself out of the UK variant-other countries should learn from that (DJ...and there is a problem...) But the SA and B variants are spreading, other variants N (Nigeria) US 1 and 2, M (Malaysia) A (Argentina) may become a risk...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 (gets updated now more times per day..)

 -Vaccination in the UK going up-at the end of June all 18+ citizens can be vaccinated in the UK (with at least one vaccination. DJ Some new vaccinations Johnson&Johnson/Janssen Pharma/Leiden NL-need just one vaccine.) Within 30/40 days pharma industry can produce vaccines to deal with new variants...(DJ-But there can get a problem with a mix of variants-creating variants even further away from the "original"...We still need NPI to keep the R0<1 get the R0 to ZERO !!!)

 -Dr.J.C. mentions new production facilities opening faster to get much more vaccines faster. Not "just" for this pandemic but also to deal with "the next one...". We may be lucky with this virus-other virusses can spread much faster and kill much more people. Both because of the damage the virus does as well as the number of cases...DJ-It is good to have "new fire trucks" it is better to have no fires...we need better surveilance to detect possibly pandemic virusses as soon as we can to prevent any "next pandemic". We can not ignore healthcare in "poor countries" because in that way "we are creating the next pandemic due to ignorance..."!!!)

 -DJ-On vaccines-it is good to see UK government investing in non-profit vaccine production capacity. But can we please evaluate mRNA vaccines ? First of all for their costs/profit-during a pandemic totally unacceptable !!! But also due to practical use (-70C is not practical) and safety for some sub groups (the most vulnarable need protection. IF vaccination with the Pfizer vaccine already killed over 100 older people it may not be safe enough !

 -Spain-in Andalusia high dodes of vitamin D for the most vulnarable did result in less, and less severe cases, deaths...other regions/countries should learn from this !!!

 -India has the-for now-largest vaccine production facility in the world in Pune (the one in UK Oxfordshire opening soon will be larger). Mass vaccination of 300 million people in (soon) 6000 vaccination points on its way...using AstraZeneca and Covaxin (Bharat Biotech) both made in India. Both stored at fridge temperatures, $2,75 per dose (the Pfizer-mRNA=$ 19,50 per dose and needs -70C storage...please...DJ-concentrate on non-profit, easy to produce/store safe vaccines-and DUMP moderna/pfizer expensive for profit vaccines as fast as possible...!!)

Dr.J.C. The Bharat Biotech vaccine phase-3 study has not been published (DJ-In western scientific society-like the Russian and Chinese vaccines) . 

 -Israel-Dr.J.C. with over 2 million (of just over 9 million population) people vaccinated there should show up some herd immunity (DJ- certainly with "natural immunity" after infection) but so far cases remain high...Pfizer should-after first vaccination and after 14 days reduce chance of getting infected with 33 to 60% (two different studies). The vaccinated people may be spreading less virus after vaccination/infection. [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/israel-sees-104-coronavirus-deaths-in-48-hours/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/israel-sees-104-coronavirus-deaths-in-48-hours/ ; Deaths from coronavirus climbed in Israel by 104 in the past two days to a total of 3,910. On Saturday, 1,135 hospital patients were in serious condition. According to figures released on Saturday, there were 9,198 new cases on Friday and 7.6 pc tested positive.

DJ-If there are safety concerns for the Pfizer vaccine for some sub groups it may show up in Israel. If there are safety concerns vaccination strategy may need some changes. The AZ/O vaccine is 100% protecting agains hospital/severe cases after one vaccination.

-Zimbabwe "still has to look at safety of vaccines" (DJ-may be to poor to buy them..so "it is buying time", The SA variant must be showing up there..) 

 -Australia had its pandemic under control. So why not organize an international sports event like the tennis "Australian Open" to introduce all kind of new variants into your country with "players" breaking all the rules on quarantine-acting like spoiled babies...If governments take this pandemic serious sport events stop !!! Not even local matches...(but that would cost votes...)

DJ-Dr.J.C. is optimistic on the present situation. Vaccines "may save us". DJ-I am less optimistic;

-We keep reopening the economy when the R0 is just under 1, repeating mistakes, not learning much from recent events..

-Public support for restrictions may go up-with the news of UK/LA/Manaus-Brazil disasters-but does not last that long...

-We are now in a phase of the pandemic-with most likely billions of people-lots of animals being infected-most not even tested, virus sequencing less the 0,00001% of all the virusses spreading, it is only logic to expect "lots of new variants"..

-The only effective way to get the R0 to ZERO (!!!) is long term NPI. Vaccines may give a false sense of security but may even help creating new variants...become counterproductive...

WAR

A rich elite funding the proces is searching for war...

[url]https://southfront.org/armed-protesters-begin-to-arrive-at-state-capitols-around-the-nation/[/url] or https://southfront.org/armed-protesters-begin-to-arrive-at-state-capitols-around-the-nation/ 

[url]https://southfront.org/iranian-forces-installed-signal-intelligence-equipment-near-jordanian-border/[/url] or https://southfront.org/iranian-forces-installed-signal-intelligence-equipment-near-jordanian-border/ 

[url]https://southfront.org/navalny-detained-in-moscow-belarus-like-scenario-started/[/url] or https://southfront.org/navalny-detained-in-moscow-belarus-like-scenario-started/ 

DJ-trump (and his funders) are giving Biden an impossible job both in the US and outside by putting seeds for more conflicts all over the planet...

As always-I hope I am very very wrong...

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBeXF_lnj_M[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBeXF_lnj_M Bach-Erbarme Dich English translation: Have mercy, my God, for the sake of my tears! See here, before you heart and eyes weep bitterly.


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 18 2021 at 10:25pm

DJ,

With the news of the arrest of a Florida data-scientist for refusing to manipulate data on the pandemic, a new German mutation, and questions on vaccines and variants this forum itself may have good info/questions..

Even the numbers for monday january 18-reflecting sundays testing/reporting [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ are "not real news"...do not tell much...yes relative low numbers in the UK but maybe due to weekend...there was a beginning of a downward trend...

The virus on video [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB3ujgoniVQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB3ujgoniVQ TU Vienna/Austria

Portugal may be in a hospital crisis by now-but unclear if that is related to the Brazil variant ? (If it is related why is it not in the news ? I can google, try to find out...[url]https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2021-01-18/portugal-brings-in-tougher-lockdown-measures/57788[/url] or https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2021-01-18/portugal-brings-in-tougher-lockdown-measures/57788 does not have much info...This [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/portugal-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/portugal-covid-19 is old...) DJ-I would not be surprised if the Brazil variant is spreading in Portugal...but I have not found a story on it yet...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-melissa-hein-forum-for-psychological-research-and-development/904363-japan-s-suicides-jump-16-in-covid-19-2nd-wave-women-died-at-five-times-the-rate-of-men[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-melissa-hein-forum-for-psychological-research-and-development/904363-japan-s-suicides-jump-16-in-covid-19-2nd-wave-women-died-at-five-times-the-rate-of-men Here in NL there is an increase of teenagers (trying) to end their live...the nearby future did become very uncertain...for lots of people this is a hard time...

[url]https://southfront.org/more-and-more-deaths-emerge-from-pfizer-vacine-success-story/[/url] or https://southfront.org/more-and-more-deaths-emerge-from-pfizer-vacine-success-story/ ;DJ-My impression is that some vaccines are "not the best" for some groups...There is an alternative-full long enough lockdown...but how to enforce that...the strategy of bringing the R0 <1 reopening and R0 gets >1 so another lockdown is a total disaster...

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQyhjQUjHjU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQyhjQUjHjU has a long interview with Mr. David Davis MP...could be interesting...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Davis_(British_politician)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Davis_(British_politician) He has been promoting vitamin D against the coronavirus..

Israel [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/israels-coronavirus-death-tall-passes-4000/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/israels-coronavirus-death-tall-passes-4000/ DJ-The idea was vaccinations and "natural immunity" (after infection) would show up in Israel...but may still be to early for that ? (Or is not there ???)

For the US [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/white-house-issues-cog-con-warning[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/white-house-issues-cog-con-warning ?????

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsA-Xc6gWDE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsA-Xc6gWDE Theme from Mahogany Diana Ross-Do You Know Where You're goin To ...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 18 2021 at 11:00pm

Gibraltar is a case of what a very bad scenario could look like.   It missed the first wave, when Spain was hit so hard, but now the pandemic is taking a huge toll.

I realise it is a micro state and its over-the-pandemic ratio figures are still below many of the individual States in the USA, but so far this month (18 days) its death rate has risen from 212 per million to 1,336 per million, so 1,124 deaths per million in 18 days. 


 It is unlikely to continue at this rate but at the current rate would kill about 2.2% of the population in a year.   So not a slate-wiper, but still serious, and in many countries with low population growth we might see shrinking population numbers (with all the social problems associated with that).   


All data taken from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 19 2021 at 3:05am

-On [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gibraltar[/url or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GibraltarIt has an area of 6.7 km2 (2.6 sq mi) and is bordered to the north by Spain. The landscape is dominated by the Rock of Gibraltar at the foot of which is a densely populated town area, home to over 32,000 people, primarily Gibraltarians.

DJ-An explosion of cases due to the UK variant is very likely...

-[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/more-than-10pc-test-positive-for-coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/more-than-10pc-test-positive-for-coronavirus/

More than 10,000 new covid cases were recorded on Monday and an alarming 10.4pc tested positive for the virus. The hospitals report 1,188 serious cases with 295 patients on ventilators. Deaths increased to a total of 4,044.

The ministry attributes the unbridled spread of the virus to imported variants, estimating that the UK strain accounts for 40pc of the new cases. Restrictions on air travel are therefore high on the cabinet’s agenda.

Altogether 2,177 million Israelis have been vaccinated including 410,00 recipients of their second dose.

DJ-This is not what one would expect...there is a strict lockdown and mass vaccination. Part of the problem is orthodox jews-with large families in small houses not accepting any rules..For Palestine the first 5000 Sputnik vaccines are on their way. The Palestine government refuses to work with Israel, Israel does see it as a Palestine problem-for now. Russia, China, AstraZeneca etc vaccines may be on their way...

WAR

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/major-airstrikes-rock-iran-backed-iraqi-militias-near-baghdad-casualties-reported[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/major-airstrikes-rock-iran-backed-iraqi-militias-near-baghdad-casualties-reported and [url]https://southfront.org/explosions-rock-positions-of-iranian-allies-in-iraq-us-fiercely-denies-its-involvement/[/url] or https://southfront.org/explosions-rock-positions-of-iranian-allies-in-iraq-us-fiercely-denies-its-involvement/ 

DJ-Today last full day of Trump (legal) presidency...[url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syria-denies-secret-negotiations-with-israel/[/url] or https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syria-denies-secret-negotiations-with-israel/ may also fit in a "trump scenario"...trying to get as many Arab States to make some sort of peace with Israel-and by doing so create a gap between those states and Iran. 

The "weak part" of that plan is both Russia and China also welcome Arab-Israeli peace for their plans on links between them and Europe/Africa...Israel is doing bussines both with the US and Russia/China...the more peace deals with Arab states the more Israel may move towards making more deals with Russia and China... Israel can not fight a war with Iran-has to find another way to get out of the conflict..Russia and China may be more usefull/helpfull then the US (even under Biden). 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 19 2021 at 9:35pm

DJ,

At 3 levels a very important day;

-US Joe Biden becomes next US president...I hope the US can heal, trump is a symptom-NOT the disease. 

-Here in NL our government has fallen. A Christian Democratic MP was talking about a "clique" of government/MP's and press "working together" stop any critical voices...Democracy is in real danger around the globe..[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/19/govt-scraps-debts-victims-childcare-allowance-scandal[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/19/govt-scraps-debts-victims-childcare-allowance-scandal -This afternoon there will be another press meeting. New restrictions to deal with the UK variant-curfew, less/no visitors...DJ-I did stick to the rules from the beginning-have more or less been in lockdown/isolation since march 2020...And I am getting very fed up and frustrated about "empty words". On paper we have very strict rules-in practice hardly a majority is doing its best...those who do not take this pandemic serious get away with it...sorry to say-but that may include the political leadership of my country...There is an "advice" against skiing in the Alps-but if you do not follow that "advice" there are no consequences...countries need tourism...the spread goes on..

-At a local level today will see the outcome over a legal fight about a [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ring_road[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ring_road around "my city"...Air polution is a major part in this pandemic story...A ring road may keep cars/polution out of more densely populated area's (and public transport during a pandemic has only a limited role to play). If you want to stop pandemics you have to invest more in the enviroment, deal with climate change etc...and that story now has become a background story...

The Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  for monday january 19. 

-When one compares the list of new cases with new deaths one can get an impression of where a pandemic phase is in a coutry. The UK has record high deaths-but new cases (for the moment) are decreasing. More or less the same for South Africa...In Brazil new cases and new deaths seem to be in balance...Here in NL news the impression is the decrease of cases may be slowing down-with a downward trend for the "old"variant and an upward trend for the UK variant...

-DJ-In discussion there may be to much about the UK variant. In Switzerland there seems to be a major outbreak of the SA variant, Portugal is close to breaking point very likely linked to the Brazil variant..With also (limited) news of a larger scale outbreak of a German variant (in very south of Germany-south of Munich). 

When you follow the Israel story; mass vaccination and high natural immunity did not stop seeing high new number of cases-in part linked to the UK variant spreading in the orthodox community..The "major story"on the pandemic right now has to be on new variants "exploding"...

Due to a mix of variants and in a few countries vaccinations the number of new variants will increase/explode...That part of the pandemic is ignored. Vaccines, testing will soon become much less effective...we need long term-months-of NPI to slow down the spread. Some countries (UK, Israel) already did go very far-there have been enough countries where people hardly ware allowed to go outside their house for months...but still that is only part of a plan. Contact tracing, sequencing to discover variants need top-priority-and are not getting that..We soon will be over the 100 million tested/reported cases...

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=at-ZqpSRL_c[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=at-ZqpSRL_c ;

-In the UK/US 25% of population may have had a corona-infections "so 75% is still at risk"..DJ-WRONG !!! 100% is at risk because of variants exploding. Brazil may see a high number of reinfections, Israel may discover there are limits to the vaccination...If we "only" had to deal with the "old variant" Dr.J.C. would be correct, but we have to deal with a "mega-mix"...

-Anti bodies in 20% of blood samples (both in US and UK), older cases do not have anti-body immunity (but still other forms of immunity)...earlier CDC data gave over 100 million in the US already infected-but based on bloodsample studies that number has to be lower...(still over 70 million). Both in US, UK cases decreasing-BUT the UK is getting over the UK variant peak-the US may see those (and other variants) increasing..

-Infection Fatality Ratio may be 0,48% (of all those infected 0,48% died)-but DJ-if hospitals stop functioning/can not deal with number of cases IFR will change..

-In "a model" by may 1 the US would be at 567,000 deaths (Dr.J.C. compares that with Spanish Flu nimbers) DJ-"wishfull thinking"-very likely to get much worse due to variants/mega mix. So far UK variant detected in 10 US states (DJ-Due to lack of capacity for sequencing. In NL it may already be 10% of all cases..)

DJ-It may be an impossible job to make "models" including variants. But that is NOT an excuse to ignore/exclude those variants...Just like "summer will change things" wishfull thinking is NOT a strategy...but the lack of it...

Music-Kermit the frog "Rainbow connection" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jS5fTzMP_mg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jS5fTzMP_mg 



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2021 at 9:54pm

DJ, 

This pandemic is a big horror, with a tsunami of "new variant cases" just starting-vaccines not yet offering protection. Denial can be psychological self defense...but it is making matters much worse. The only somewhat effective strategy for now is isolation, limiting contacts to ZERO...maybe even trying to somehow filter the ventilation if you live in a crowded urban area..

A look at the january 20 numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ is dramatic;

-UK record number of Covid-deaths

-Spain, Portugal record numbers of cases

-Israel high number of cases

Most countries now are in the strictest lockdown rules since the start of this pandemic. These rules may have prevented if they were put in action 10 months ago...Putting priority on vaccination in my opinion for now is the WRONG choice-we have to do everything to decrease the spread of the variants...The effects of vaccinations may be to limited and come to late..It is good vaccine-producers are working on vaccines effective for the variants-but when you realize billions of people may need those vaccines it is "almost impossible"..(DJ-Today the EU will decide on ski-hollidays-can they go on...to "save tourism" ....It seems to be impossible for some "leaders" to realize how large the unfolding disaster will become. Some "politicians"going in isolation after "infected contacts" they had during "essential trips" to Portugal etc...please...) 

Although there was a "Nature" published study claiming the risks of reinfection was as good as zero-due to B-cell immunity news from around the globe indicates lots of reinfections with also over 80% (?) of the population without immunity...

When you look at the video's from the UK, Brazil etc and you look at the numbers-with all their limitations it may be hard to find any reason for optimism...

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3849fI4yIeo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3849fI4yIeo ;

-Dr.J.C. a decrease of US, UK new cases...this also will decrease the pressure on hospitals..For the US new variants may bring another (worse) increase..DJ-The bad part is; A-Around the globe the large majority still has no immunity...Worldometers is moving to 100 million tested reported cases-even if the real number of infected would be ten times that number-on a global population of over 7 billion the 1 billion only will have very limited effect...B-Again-we are now in a phase were variants must be mixing and exploding...Countries like Spain, Brazil, Israel did have very high numbers earlier-still that did not save them from another "explosion" of cases. After the UK variant the UK may face other variants still able to infect millions of people...C-Sometimes "things" collapse when the pressure decreases...hospital care has been overstretched for much to long...It must be getting impossible to deal again with more massive waves this way...

DJ-Top priority now should be stopping variant/virus spread...we may have to look at China for strategies on how to get there...When you look at images from hospitals-and I hate/hesitate to put it like this...I get the picture of "a bio-chemical industrial proces". With tens of thousend of people needing oxygen-in induced coma...Could robots be helpfull in turning patients-in stead of 6 to 8 people doing that ? (You also have lifts (is that the right word) helping to get people out of bed...Can (more) computers help in monitoring/correcting IC patients ? 

Some experts warn "we mave have to live with this virus"...I (DJ) can imagine this pandemic to be part of the sixth mass extinction, part of human made climate collapse...I would love to believe we can get out of this (man made) disaster-the sooner the better-but it looks less and less likely we can get out of it within months-even with mass vaccinations...

-Dr.J.C. is not very good in having any idea of the economic shift. "Saving the economy" by creating "zillions" of currencies does have a price named hyperinflation. The only limit on that may be "we are almost all in the same boat"...DJ-I have a big mouth-not a science background-the trend was the 0,1% was getting richer at the cost most of the poor. (Allthough most of the poor did see some progress as well before this pandemic) That trend did not stop-most of the very rich will get even richer during this pandemic...

-Dr.J.C.-In the UK there is a shift with BBC showing what is happening in hospitals, morgues ...DJ-"Hard communications" may convince more people to accept some rules...get some reality in their brains...(DJ-If we want to get out of this we have "to fix stupid"-otherwise the virus/variants leep spreading...one person can bring a country in danger...there is no room for "joke's or jokers"...).

-In the UK an idea of opening schools-daily testing for cases-has been put "on pause"...(DJ-Schools, children keep on showing up in this discussion. There is EVERY indication even younger children DO spread the virus-even often not getting ill themselves (wonder how the multi inflamatory syndrom in children statistics are-they may get ill later on...just like the UK is reporting a lot of people returning to hospitals after a few months due to worsening symptoms...) DJ-It would be "wise and welcome" if governments "just"were honest-no schools can not reopen till summer (maybe with very limited exceptions)-children need a "social bubble" to keep damage limited...

-US may face 500,000 deaths in february (CDC). In California 30/50% of cases from CAL.20C variant [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#CAL.20C[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#CAL.20C  is spreading faster...That CAL.20C variant was found looking for the UK variant-so far over 122 cases-10 states-did find the UK variant...New head of the CDC vaccine may be "less effective" against the variants-Dr.J.C. does not want to believe it could go down to 70% "maybe 90% effective for variants, 95% effective for "old" variant...DJ-Vaccines are NOT effective at all simply because only a very tiny amount of people did get the vaccine. Most of the vaccinated still need a few weeks before getting a slight increase in immunity...at the same time variants (from all over the globe) are spreading like wildfire in the US. With the US having a problem with the very basics of NPI (allthough Biden will do his best), hospitals in many places already at breaking point the new variants "are going to destroy the US"....Like many other places the R0 for the old variants is <1-but the problem is new variants may have an R0 of 1,3 even with lots of restrictions...and the restrictions/NPI in the US is "problematic", vaccines work on longer term while the unfolding new variant crisis is short term-already started...

-In LA county air quality regulations lifted for crematoria to deal with dead bodies...very sad reality in lots of places...CDC notices the "long Covid group" (DJ-I think there are links with chronic Q-fever, ME-CFS, post viral syndrome...realism helps although the message is not very welcome. After some months it may be realistic there will be no 100% recovery..)

-Netherlands/NL-Dr.J.C. thinks curfew/stop flights to some countries are a good idea "if the new variants did not yet arrive"...DJ-At least 10% of cases in NL are the UK variant, expected to become 50%+ next month...As far as I know of 3 SA variants discovered in NL so far (Do not know if that was travel related). DJ-We have "lots of people"living/moving in Suid Afrika, Surinam (often with Dutch passports..) Some of the "Dutch rich" now spent time in Dubai...since wintersport area's are less then a day-drive away I do expect "tens of thousends"go for "apres-ski" in snow filled area's...(most of their "sports activity" may be walking from the car to the hotel...lifting beer..."not my kind of people"..) since there is only "an advice" against acting that insane, no increased border controls yet-and tourism lobbying "to be saved"...DJ-Since the curfew the "rent-a-dog" market exploded-many people still not getting how serious the situation is. Mass media "not at their best" in reporting...we will have elections march 17 so "our government"very likely will claim all kind of successes-we did get 70.000 people vaccinated..(of the almost 17,5 million). DJ-One thing "I hate"from my country is the lack of will to look over the borders...a sort of "tunnel blind" even when disaster is just over the border (a few weeks ago Belgium had 4 SA variants close to the Dutch border north of Antwerp..hardly news in NL..Switzerland may have lots of SA variants-"perfect for skiing")

-SA excess deaths from early may till now over 85,000 (with 39,000 reported Covid deaths)...

-Brazil-11,470 people vaccinated...program just started..Dr.J.C. takes a look at global vaccinations "a slow start" for many countries..

-Vitamin D (4000(+) IU=International Units-should be on the package) boost the immune system, may prevent from getting very ill or dead...DJ-also explains why spring and summer may decrease number of cases...I gurgle with mouthwash, fond of things with ginger..

-Dr.J.C. allows us to take a look in his "studio"...most people watching his video's are over 45, from UK and US..

DJ-Boosting your immune system for the moment may be the best option. [url]https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence[/url] or https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence DJ-most of the deaths from the Spanish Flu pandemic were during the second wave. One could argue the "new variants" of Covid 19 may represent a second wave in this pandemic. 

From September through November of 1918, the death rate from the Spanish flu skyrocketed. In the United States alone, 195,000 Americans died from the Spanish flu in just the month of October. And unlike a normal seasonal flu, which mostly claims victims among the very young and very old, the second wave of the Spanish flu exhibited what’s called a “W curve”—high numbers of deaths among the young and old, but also a huge spike in the middle composed of otherwise healthy 25- to 35-year-olds in the prime of their life.

DJ-Most of humanity in 2021 live in an urban enviroment. You get your food from the supermarket. The "variants" are very likely to "push healthcare in the corner" (I think media will not cover the worst news for the moment-we do not want mass panic.) That is "our first line of defense". Already lots of HCW-ers at breaking point-without people doing the job there will be no halthcare...They need ALL the support we are able to provide..

Again-we as citizens have EVERY interest in NOT getting infected !!! Variants only spread if we spread variants...

The "second line of defense"is logistics, food supply, drinking water, and basic security to keep that going. Again nothing wrong with having some reserves-but again we do not need panic !!! I (DJ) think some parts of the US, some other countries may see that line of defense "challenged" ...as long as other regions are able to help with local/regional crisis the problems may get resolved...

I would love to believe "natural immunity" and vaccinations helped against the variants. But still most of us did not yet face infection to start with..the virus/variants have "all the room we give". So NPI, isolation has to do the job ! 

It would be nice if governments, experts do get that in time (not wait for the evidence AFTER the fact, get pro-active for a change...)

This pandemic is a mental health risk for ALL of us...We ALL need some perspective. But only realism is helping-not "hopium"-"miracles"...vaccines are good for longer term, variant major risk is SHORT term...

DJ-I think we can get out of this pandemic-if we are (very) lucky we may even be able to get out of this crises in autumn this year ? 

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PzL8aL6jtI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PzL8aL6jtI Tomorrow-Annie (good lyrics)


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2021 at 7:57am

DJ-Sort of "news dump" ;

[url]https://www.kold.com/2021/01/16/new-study-shows-children-hospitalized-with-covid-has-increased-six-months/[/url] or https://www.kold.com/2021/01/16/new-study-shows-children-hospitalized-with-covid-has-increased-six-months/ ; According to a new study by the Journal of American Medical Association (JAMA), from May 2020 to November 2020, Arizona went from barely having one child hospitalized with the virus per 100,000 people to having about 33 kids hospitalized per 100,000 just six months later, which is a 4,000% increase.

-(Would like to learn more on this...)

-Fire in Pune India at the [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/904698-india-covishield-ceo-reassures-after-5-die-in-fire-at-world-s-largest-vaccine-maker-january-21-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/904698-india-covishield-ceo-reassures-after-5-die-in-fire-at-world-s-largest-vaccine-maker-january-21-2021 (producing a.o. 50 million AZ/O vaccines per month) see also;

[url]https://www.rt.com/news/513198-world-biggest-vaccine-maker-fire-india/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/news/513198-world-biggest-vaccine-maker-fire-india/ Would not effect production. 

In the UK-Wales [url]https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-55745714[/url] or https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-55745714

Wales was the wettest part of the UK during the storm, the Met Office said.

Wrexham council leader Mark Pritchard said teams worked to ensure the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, made on Wrexham Industrial Estate, was not lost in the floods.

DJ-Disasters can effect production and logistics...

-[url]https://www.rt.com/news/513230-africa-covid19-fatality-inequality-vaccine/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/news/513230-africa-covid19-fatality-inequality-vaccine/

The head of Africa's disease control agency has warned that the continent's fatality rate from Covid-19 has risen above the global average, adding that this is a very "worrying" development.

Africa's Covid-19 case fatality rate has risen to 2.5 percent, while the global average is 2.2 percent, Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) head John Nkengasong told reporters on Thursday.

"The case fatality rate is beginning to be very worrying and concerning for all of us," he said, but did not elaborate on the factors involved.

Nkengasong said that there are now more than 21 countries on the continent with a case fatality rate above three percent, including Egypt, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Sudan.

Last year, some disease experts suggested Africa had a lower fatality rate than other parts of the world due to a more youthful population, while others cautioned that lower testing rates could be masking the bigger picture of the Covid-19 outbreak across the continent. 

DJ-The "expectation" Africa would have some form of immunity was based on wishfull thinking-not on facts...It is very likely Africa will sink deeper in this Corona crisis. The SA and N (Nigeria) variant already are detected in Africa-with minimum testing...As long as Africa has cases-the world will have a problem...

-[url]https://innovationorigins.com/corona-in-europe-from-curfews-to-jabs-in-the-arm/[/url] or https://innovationorigins.com/corona-in-europe-from-curfews-to-jabs-in-the-arm/ loads of info...

-[url]https://www.rt.com/russia/513219-hungary-sputnik-vaccine-approval/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/russia/513219-hungary-sputnik-vaccine-approval/ Hungary approves Sputnik-5, AZ/O "since the EMA is not fast enough"Hungary also talking with a Chinese supplier..

-[url]https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210121-covid-19-restrictions-to-remain-in-place-macron-warns-protesting-students[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210121-covid-19-restrictions-to-remain-in-place-macron-warns-protesting-students ;

Macron's comments followed recent demonstrations in Paris and other cities that saw students protest Covid-19 restrictions, which they said were pushing young people to the brink of despair with solitude and financial uncertainty. There have been cases of suicides at universities in France, and around the world, blamed on the loneliness caused by lockdowns. 

DJ-In Dutch reporting on French students-They would be offered two meals per day for 1€ because of hunger...lack of income, paying rent...

EU-US relations [url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/513105-us-europe-china-biden-trump/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/op-ed/513105-us-europe-china-biden-trump/

A new survey of citizens of 11 countries suggests that Joe Biden faces an almost impossible task when it comes to his goal of repairing frayed US-European relations. But it’s trite to simply blame four years of Donald Trump.

A recent survey commissioned by the European Council on Foreign Relations has found that most Europeans look to Germany rather than the United States as their most important partner, having lost faith in America’s ability to elect leaders who share their continent’s vision and values. 

DJ-[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/01/biden-administrations-new-foreign-policy-is-more-of-the-same-old-one.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/01/biden-administrations-new-foreign-policy-is-more-of-the-same-old-one.html 

Putting Victoria-F..k the EU-Nuland in a leading position is not improving EU-US relations. The US may join the Paris climate agreement, WHO but "never ending oil wars" and sanctions on European companies for buying oil from Russia or Iran, telecom from China are "very unwelcome"..

D

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2021 at 10:22pm

DJ,

-Here in NL the news had some reporting on "what to do in the snow" if you can not go skiing in the Alps...snow-kite-surfing, walking on snow-shoes...no link with virusspread. Also "the most terrible thing this pandemic does" is maybe less sports and festivals this summer...It is this kind of braindead stupidity by Main Stream Media that is a major cause for this pandemic...

Schools, students face another difficult schoolyear-that is a more serious concern. Today the results of mass testing in an area north of Rotterdam (NL) will be presented. They had two clusters of the UK variant at elementary schools over a month ago..Some 60.000 people from 2 years and older were invited for testing. If the UK variant is found in a lot of young(er) people it may result in stricter rules for schools.

DJ-What is missing in NL-and a lot of other countries-is a long term strategy. Dealing with this pandemic makes such a strategy urgent. Plans for two, three weeks show a total lack of vision and understanding of the problem...

-A look at the numbers from january 21 [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

-With an average number of Covid deaths >4000 the US will be at 460,000 deaths february 1, 500,000 deaths february 10. Increased vaccination may see some impact on new cases in february. The "new deaths" will come from the over 130,000 already very ill. The Biden government/new head of the CDC is going for much stricter NPI. That has to bring down the new cases...

More sequencing is priority #1 !!! If there are already lots of variants spreading in the US much stricter rules have to be enforced. It is more then likely a "mega-mix" of variants is already in the US, most of Europe, Africa and parts of Asia...

From an escalation of cases we may now face an escalation of variants...Most of them already spreading but doing so undetected-due to lack of capacity. 

It will be a hard job to increase sequencing capacity. The number of people and labs that can do such high tech specialistic job is very limited. Working extra hours will only have limited effect. There are labs/staff doing jobs related to sequencing that may be able to do (part of) the work. Also NBC-military specialist most likely already are involved. The UK and Denmark do over 50% of the (public) job. Most likely other countries are doing much more but keep their (military) capacity a secret...

-The UK numbers are going down-but they have a very strict lockdown. The numbers have to go down even more-most likely still some people do not follow the rules. There are now new even harder penalties for breaking those rules...It is good news is now making clear this pandemic is "no joke"...For a country with just over 68 million people more then 1000 deaths per day has to be a nightmare...

The bad news is rules, "hard news" only work short term. Do we realy need a "police state" to get out of the problem ? 

-Looking at other countries, Brazil is a horror show. With limited testing, a lot of corruption vaccination will be hard. Even if people are vaccinated AND there is a lockdown Israel is proof that still this pandemic is not under control. 

In Europe Portugal, Czechia also face very serious problems. In Portugal the story now is a lot of cases linked to the UK variant I expected the Brazil variant would be spreading there-the "good" news may be the Brazil variant is not spreading a lot in Europe. However the UK variant is already widespread in Europe-may be over 50% of new cases within a few weeks. Restrictions in most of Europe-when you look at the UK-are not effective enough to deal with an explosion of cases. 

Also in lots of places the SA variant has been found. Increased testing and controls, a stop on direct flights from southern Africa may have limited the numbers for this variant so far...In Switzerland it may already be a major problem. It may just take ONE infected person-without any symptoms to start such a spread..If virusspread would have more time before any symptoms-if any-show up-for instance in younger people-ir can spread high speed and become a major problem in just a few weeks...

Again-most new variants most likely have not yet been detected or may just start spreading (the "unknown-unknowns" with SA,B,UK variants being "known-unknowns"for reinfection/vaccines).

China [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901299-china-beijing-covid-19-coronavirus-spread-some-neighborhoods-shut-down-mass-testing-incl-1000-people-at-one-school-1-area-upgraded-to-high-risk[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901299-china-beijing-covid-19-coronavirus-spread-some-neighborhoods-shut-down-mass-testing-incl-1000-people-at-one-school-1-area-upgraded-to-high-risk (DJ-Flutrackers has a lot of good, relevant reporting/discussion a good and very welcome source of info-when other media simply fail to do their job.)

China had the pandemic under control. Recently two UK variants showed up. China blamed frozen food imports for new cases. They are the only country so far making this claim (as far as I know) but also may be the only country with good virus safety control on frozen food imports. Earlier on "the west" ignored "news from China"-it turned out that was "unwise/stupid"...There is every reason to take reports on virus import via frozen goods serious !

DJ-If we would like to see the global economy recover we need "economic motors". The US will get hit very hard. In many ways "the US is becoming an outsider" for global recovery. So Europe and Asia may need to do the job. Australia and New Zealand only can play a limited role..

DJ [url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/513281-west-funding-white-helmets-covid/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/op-ed/513281-west-funding-white-helmets-covid/ It is beyond sickening some idiots in power keep giving aid to alqaeda linked terrorists because of the corona-pandemic. Terrorists and bio-hazards are a major risk factor. You do not want neo-nazi's or IS (both cia-funded) to spread more variants...

Music; The Animals 1965 We gotta get out of this place [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3mgapAcVdU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3mgapAcVdU 




We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2021 at 4:41am

WAR

Hal Turner FALSE !!! claims [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/it-only-took-24-hours-us-sends-major-convoys-into-syria-russian-moving-convoys-to-intercept[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/it-only-took-24-hours-us-sends-major-convoys-into-syria-russian-moving-convoys-to-intercept DJ-When I look at sources for this claim I do not find any other source for it...HT is spreading-very likely-false facts...

There have been Israeli air strikes on Syria again [url]https://southfront.org/massacre-in-syria-israeli-airstrikes-leave-entire-family-dead-photos/[/url] or https://southfront.org/massacre-in-syria-israeli-airstrikes-leave-entire-family-dead-photos/ 

IS (A cia/Israel/KSA proxy) [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/isis-claims-responsibility-for-twin-suicide-bombings-in-iraq-that-killed-over-30-civilians/[/url] or https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/isis-claims-responsibility-for-twin-suicide-bombings-in-iraq-that-killed-over-30-civilians/ 

DJ-It would be more then welcome if the US-under Biden-did change its strategy worldwide. Less confrontations (and even sanctions on allies !!) can stop the US getting isolated. [url]https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2021/01/22/643599/India-Russia-military-team-S-400-US-sanctions[/url] or https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2021/01/22/643599/India-Russia-military-team-S-400-US-sanctions 

Diplomacy instead of bombs may be better for the US. (In NL the US is linked with neo-nazi's in "base" international nazi group from the US, extreme right wing politicians getting funding from the US, even welcomed at the US embassy in The Hague for fundraising activities..).

[url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/us-state-department-releases-fact-sheet-on-wuhan-institute-of-virology-referencing-bioweapons.14614/[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/us-state-department-releases-fact-sheet-on-wuhan-institute-of-virology-referencing-bioweapons.14614/ Finding facts on how this pandemic started will be a hard job. Results will take years...Blaming China does not help-even if China made huge mistakes, we may need Chinese vaccines, soon may need Chinese doctors, experts...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2021 at 9:43pm

DJ,

One of the reason I like to take a look at history is "it is an old story" we did survive it..Also comparing situations-with backgrounds-can help getting a better picture of what to expect...

A pandemic is always a complex story-to put it very simple an illness getting that widespread it is effecting lots of people at lots of places...It does not have to be a deadly disease, it does not even have to be active at all the places at the same time...

I believe in communications to get a better picture, honesty...not making things better then they are or go into a panic-mode. More as a guide; here we are, this is where we came from and these are the choices we face...

In this pandemic the new variants turn out to be "bad news wrapped in bad news"...[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/904784-uk-nervtag-paper-on-covid-19-variant-of-concern-b-1-1-7-increased-severity[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/904784-uk-nervtag-paper-on-covid-19-variant-of-concern-b-1-1-7-increased-severity 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 

The UK variant turns out to be much more deadly then first expected. Sensors sending alarms when the body is getting low on oxygen are being switched of by this variant infection. So many people with this variant may be with an oxygen <90% not noticing it-feeling a bit light in the head, as if they did drink to much alcohol..When they notice it their lungs are often in such a bad shape the need ventilation...

Here starts the bad news;

-1 The UK variant is spreading all over the planet-will become the dominant form within a month...

-2 Other variants share some of the UK mutations-have even more receptor binding domain changes most likely making them even more infectious...

-3 Hospitals around the globe are already overstretched..

-4 People are tired of corona, communications on this pandemic are bad...

-5 Vaccinations may give false hope. At best they may provide a high degree of protection 90%+ against the old variant and only after a few weeks after the first vaccination a vaccinated person has enough defenses/immunity to make a bit of a difference...

-6 Since variants are spreading NOW and vaccination only started large scale recently-vaccinations are-at best-of limited use now-may be helping a little next month...but vaccinating all of the planet is a job that will take years, not months..

-7 We have the "old"variant, the UK, SA, B, Cal/US variant spreading on a larger scale. The N (Nigeria), G (Germany), A (Argentine) variants were in the news but not much more then being mentioned...It is very likely the "known"variants may have more or less the same number of unknown-so far- variants...already spreading or just starting to show up...

-8 Dealing with this pandemic was not TOP-priority. Lots of governments put "saving the economy"first-only making things much worse

-9 Capacity for sequencing to detect new variants are "very limited". The UK and DK (=DenmarK) do most of the job- maybe worldwide 1 in 10.000 virusses get a closer look ? Maybe even that is optimistic...(Let me translate this; If you had 1/10.000 of your normal vision would you like to be driving a car in a foggy dark night...?)

-10 Even testing is still not the way it should be. In some countries only people with symptoms-or contacts with infected persons can get tested...while 60% of the spread is a/pre symptomatic...while younger children seem to be a main factor not recognized by some "experts"..while variants soon may be evading standard testing...

DJ-That is where we are now. A tsunami is coming-if you did take notice of how this story developed you can see the waves coming in...otherwise try to find the safest place you can find..

I am NOT an expert or a scientist-just have a big mouth trying to make some sense of it all...As always I hope I am wrong and just writing non-sense during my breakfast...Panic does not help, only makes matters worse, trying to get a realistic view of the situation is helping you and others...To be on the safe side-pre-caution, maybe being more carefull then needed, for the moment can help in damage control. 

In my idea NPI/lockdown, social distancing, masks can help getting the R0 down...so YOU can do something, you are not powerless ! 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2021 at 10:00pm

DJ,

A look at the numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for friday january 22. 

When I look at new cases/new deaths I notice Mexico not doing very well...The UK still seeing lots of new cases-even with very strict lockdown rules-deaths over 1400...Brazil, South Africa high in absolute numbers...Countries like Portugal, Ireland do not show up often in list with absolute numbers-in relative numbers, new cases/deaths per 100,000 they would be in the top 10. 

I think it is realistic a lot of the increase in cases is related to the new variants. "Good news" is both in new cases and deaths we are still not seeing record numbers...If there were no NPI/lockdowns etc. we could see over a million new cases per day, tens of thousends of "new deaths"...Still high numbers, even with in many countries already very strict rules one would expect during war-time. 

Allthough main-stream-media still not doing a very good job the general audience by now may be getting a message that something is going very, very wrong..Because rules only have use if people follow rhe rules, understand why those rules are there...

Very likely less then 10% of the population in some countries take the "liberty" to claim we are NOT in a crisis. It is good to give them some room, listen to what they claim and have some patience...In some cases (students with very limited income, people not going to a test because no work is no income) there are problems to solve. In other cases some people may be in shock-this can't be happening...well, yes, it is happening but we can get out...

DJ-Some good news-facts;

-BioNtech-Germany will deliver 50 million needles to get as much vaccines out of the Pfizer/BioNTech doses as possible at cost-price (So not making profit out of a pandemic. DJ-If you have any sense of ethics, civilization, you do not go for profits out of massive suffering...Companies that produce vaccines, tests, PPE etc. trying to make extra profit out of this global disaster should be nationalized..)

-I a Dutch massive testing after two schools detected the UK variant (in Lansingerland)  north of Rotterdam; Out of the 60,000 people invited for the test 47,000 did go for testing (70%-that is very good !). The UK variant was not very widespread-but it may be spreading via children more then some experts seem to have expected. The testing included children 2 years and older-smaller children could chew on cotton wool for ten minutes-that was analyzed. Schools for now remain closed...there will be extra studies to see what risks children have in both getting ill after infection themselves and spreading the virus(loads)..

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYIOgm3VbVI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYIOgm3VbVI (not yet with news on the UK variant...)

-UK cases decreasing, still high average number of deaths. Peak of new cases january 1-related to Christmas...(DJ-So in the UK, but also many other countries a main reason for high numbers is social-people spreading the virus during christmas, new years eve...new variants not the only, maybe even not the main reason for high numbers..) BBC news now more "realistic/confronting" in their reports...(how do you expect people to get a realistic view if you do not show them reality ?) Cases are decreasing but still higher then earlier peaks...R0=0,8 (and that is good news DJ !)

An increase of reported parties etc. may be related to the police creating more capacity to deal with these kind of events. Dr.J.C. unless you are living under a stone you must be by now knowing what the pandemic situation is..(DJ-My impression for NL is there still are some parties, demonstrations etc. but it is decreasing-even people in a social media swamp must be getting something of reality...the groups that do break the rules is getting more violent, often intoxicated etc...).

-US "things will get worse before they get better" an extra 100,000 deaths "baked in". Increased mask weating may save 30,000 US lives till may..Mass vaccination is starting. President Biden can not mandate mask wearing everywhere-states have their own say often , but he is changing the "background at federal level this pandemic is taken much more serious. 

More research on treatments (Dr.J.C. still claims Remdesivir does some anti-viral work-I think he is incorrect. DJ-I would like to know more on Ivermectin..PP/CM did not put on new video's recently-I did not like his latest video hugging and hand shaking Ivermectin promoting doctors in Texas...sitting on a terrace drinking a beer...I think social distancing is the key message.)

US putting more investments in "bio-defense" preparing for the next pandemic. Join Covax-providing vaccines to countries we keep poor. Also pay/join the WHO. (DJ-The WHO did a bad job early on in this pandemic-but there is no-better- alternative for it. For those that claim "China is running the WHO" most of the "WHO bosses" are from "the west" not China..Of course it is possible to "destroy" the WHO. China could start their own alternative with "partners"-that would leave the US isolated...)

-An "independent panel" headed by two former (female) PM's -one from New Zealand, the other from Liberia looking at what went wrong and how to do better. (DJ-This should not be a "political" battle. For the US any organization not housed in the US is "suspect". (WHO is based in Geneva Switzerland, International Criminal Court in the Hague Netherlands, Climate organizations also not under US control-if-for the US-the only "good"international organization is a US controlled organization it may be time to warn the US they have to "review"their attitude...this is a multi polar world where diplomacy is the bases...if that is not what the US wants-maybe the US "should find its own way"...)

The panel will present their report to the UN in may this year. 

-DJ as a reminder. The WHO named this outbreak a pandemic march 11. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_Hubei[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_Hubei The Wuhan lockdown started one year ago-today-january 23...It was all over the global news...Yes-China very likely made major mistakes. But to be realistic those mistakes did not cause the global pandemic !!! Early january 2020 there were already many reports on "events" in China-first reports, and Intel should have gotten that info-showed up december 2019-and the world did not react !!! 

-Canada did buy a lot of Pfizer vaccines but Pfizer-Belgium can not deliver for the next four weeks...So vaccination will start in april-by the end of summer all Canadians can be vaccinated...Dr.J.C. Why Canada (and US) still do not approve the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine ? (DJ Why are countries not going for cheap, easy to make, store, transport non-profit vaccines ? Both Pfizer and Moderna are very expensive and non-practical...There are some "single shot"vaccines (J&J is one of them) close to massive production. Why not put those on a priority list ? Vaccination is a major job-if you could have a single vaccination doing the job why not put that on top of the list ? Slowly it is becoming a "buyers market"-price and practical use matter...DJ-It also would be good if an independent organization (the WHO should be able to do such a job-it is one of the reasons they get their over 4 billion$ budget !) did take a look at the vaccines. What matters now most is do vaccines do a good job...not if they are from the US, Russia, China (or for that matter made by pinguins in Antarctica !!)-we are in a very serious global crisis !

-Western Australia did detect and stop 6 UK and 2 SA variants infected people at the airport. So those variants can not spread...why can Australia do that and other countries fail ?  (DJ-In Bejing China detected two UK variants-somehow getting into China-how could that happen ?) No community spread in WA (Western Australia) since april 11 (2020) !!!

DJ-Germany detected a B (Brazil) variant at the airport yesterday-managed to stop that there. But they have the UK, SA variant-no news on the Garmish/Bavaria variant...may have been an isolated variant that did not spread further..

I agree with Dr.J.C. (and PP/CM) "It should not be this way", this pandemic (like the Spanish Flu) was preventable-should have been prevented. Dr.J.C. thinks we may be in for several weeks "hard time", I think several months is more likely-but we will/can get out of this pandemic-even with variants-via vaccinations and NPI- this year...For the US, most of Europe (etc.) variants will see another explosion of cases...but the UK shows even then it is possible to get the R0<1. Many countries this time see the variants coming and did take measures...People are better informed and maybe use their brains a bit better...

Music; Les printemps/Spring [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HClfgTGiHDs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HClfgTGiHDs Michel Fugain et le Big Bazar...1976 I believe...Yes-Spring, summer make some difference due to more vitamin D, also people less depressed...it can not end this pandemic but it will help ! Vive la vie, vive le vin (well it is le vint ..long live life, long live wine/wind..) [url]https://www.google.com/search?q=les+printemps+lyrics&rlz=1CALKNW_enNL769NL769&oq=les+printemps+lyrics&aqs=chrome..69i57.10327j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8[/url]


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2021 at 10:01pm

DJ,

A look at numbers, UK reporting +4000 people on ventilators, UK, US and many other hospital systems overstretched often for months...some of the horror is not reflected in "easy statistics" . The "second wave" started september/october-was not even over- with then in december a third wave comming in. This wave related to "variants" and "bad timing" for Christmas and new year had already more infections "baked in"..

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ january 23

It is welcome for now UK, US do not have record number of new cases. A country like Portugal is reporting over 15,000 new cases. A country with a population of just over 10 million does see 0.15% of its population testing positive in just a single day...

Brazil reporting over 60,000 new cases in one day-not a record number-january 7 did see over 80,000 new cases (maybe including some corrections) but still "a horror number"...

Most countries now have strict lockdown rules supposed to stop the spread. Far from perfect-people may sometimes have no choice then to break the rules to transform work to income to food-but the numbers are still very high considering those NPI rules...

A very likely explanation has to be variants spreading all over the place, much more infectious...

On this (great) forum some people also mention they did expect a "short term disaster"-then recovery...not a global disaster going on for almost a year. I did try to compare the present pandemic with the Spanish Flu. I think the 3 waves of that pandemic did take 1,5 years for most western countries...only hope this pandemic may be over in some months...

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMSeiNqOfjg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMSeiNqOfjg Three main points;

-1. Dr.J.C. worried about what the "new variants" may do to the US. DJ-He is WRONG in claiming the Ireland peak was mainly caused by the new UK variant. That peak in Ireland-and several other (often catholic) countries was caused by less restrictions over christmas time...Another mistake is the US numbers very likely already include all kinds of variants...

In many countries the peak after christmas and new year is under control due to strict NPI/lockdowns (DJ-And the bad news is even with those very strict rules still a lot of new cases...also more likely to find out people did NOT seek help, died at home-still have to be found). 

Portugal had that christmas peak-lockdown-but cases are still rising. DJ-I first believed the B (Brazil) variant was doing this, now they are linking it to the UK variant-but still sequencing..I would not be surprised if Portugal would be seeing a mix of variants out of control...(and in that way maybe the first larger country (starts around 10 million in population) to face such an ordeal...)

The US may not be facing massive variant spread yet. Dr.J.C. may have a point the US is at a position the UK was at the end of november. At that time the UK variant was starting to explode in the UK...DenmarK (DK) may be at the same point the US is in for the UK variant...but DK has very good sequencing and strict rules-still UK variant increases 70% per week...

Denmark is sequencing 100% of new cases (januray 23 they had 879 new cases, 28 "new" deaths in DK).. the US is sequencing 0,3% of all new cases....untill recent even much less...

DK expects the UK variant to be dominant (50%+) mid february, quadruple cases in april...The CDC expects the UK variant to be 50%+ of the cases mid march (DJ-On what bases ? They do not have the "radar" to detect variant spread...!)

The UK variant may have been in DK since mid november, first detected mid december. Is 36% more contagious/infectious..Dr.J.C. 55% more realistic...

Dr.J.C. is hoping vaccines can make a difference. DJ-In the US vaccination only recently did increase speed. On a population of 331 million only limited numbers did get vaccinated, even less did get second vaccination. Even after second vaccination the body has to translate that into immunity...with some luck within a week, 10 days...Denmark has a population of 5,8 million-a lot of them in urban area's. DJ-Even for Denmark vaccination may not be able to stop variants getting "ugly"...maybe in combination with natural immunity and good climate conditions (nice windy weather=more ventilation) the damage-due to strict rules from early on-can be limited...

DJ-For the US "it is a different picture"...(again I am NOT an expert, just trying to make sense from this pandemic news) even if the average number of new cases would double one could see over 1 million new US cases per day...The basics for NPI/lockdown in the US is missing, vaccination/natural immunity only can have (very) limited effects

DJ I compare these variants with the second wave of the Spanish Flu...good communications may help getting people aware of the tsunami in cases on its way...

Vaccinations in DK are "a problem" may start large scale in april, supply problems worldwide..

DJ-The Spanish Flu in the US killed 650,000 people of a population of just over 100 million in 1918/1919=around 0,5%. The present US population is around 331 million-if the Spanish Flu numbers give an indication of what a "more severe" pandemic can do one ends up around 2 million US deaths (3x650,000 or 0,5% of 331 million ). Most of the US deaths were in the last four months/second wave of 1918. 

Will the "variants" bring "a three/four month peak" this time ? 

-2. UK PM Boris Johnson and government medical advisors warning UK variant may be 30% more deadly-based on statistics. The UK uses a PCR-test detecting the difference between the old variant (test positive for three segments) and the new variant (only finding two segments)..on that bases one could gather data on the two groups. 

UK variant spreads between 30% and 70% faster. DJ-The UK variant has been an important factor in the UK since november, became the dominant variant in december-so the UK did have enough time and cases to get some first conclusions. CFR up from 1% to 1,3% is what first data seems to be indicating...

Dr.J.C. Both Pfizer and AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine may offer protection against also the UK variant...D.J. NO THEY WILL NOT !!! Due to timing !!! Vaccinations come to late to deal with the spread of these variants...They could have made a difference if by now over 50% of a population was vaccinated (in combination with "natural immunity" one could get some kind of herd immunity). Only Israel may be able to get close to that point but already is hard hit by the UK variant-so-in fact-even the best country in vaccinations can not avoid to get hit hard by the UK variant...

-3 Was supposed to be on vaccines supply. Dr.J.C. ran out of time (and hope) to deal with that...basics is well known...production problems, logistics mean less vaccines will become available for a limited time. Dr.J.C. mentioned briefly the EMA may approve the AZ/O vaccine mid february...(still very late-why not end of this month ?). 

DJ Hungary "dumped/evaded"the EMA already went for AZ/O and Sputnik-5 (both Adeno-virus based). 

So where are we now...? DJ;

-Present NPI/lockdowns in many countries may "slow down" variant spread but not enough to get the R0 <1. At least it is a basis-but more stricter rules are needed-many countries are willing to learn from the UK (and could learn from China..).

-Vaccines may offer protection against UK variant (DJ-Maybe not 95% but still much better then without them-"if perfect is out of reach go for the best" (to paraphrase Techno). 

-But variants spread earlier and faster than vaccines...and that will cost millions of lives (lets be realistic on that..)

-In Europe both UK and SA variants getting widespread. UK variants in almost all European countries (even showing up in Bejing-with very strict Chinese controls). The SA variants clusters showing up in Switzerland, Belgium-more isolated/undetected in many other countries (see new variants/latest news on this forum).

-Portugal (and Spain/France/Italy) Brazilian variant ? Or is it the UK variant ? In Germany investigation going on on the German variant...

-For the US it is a good thing Biden takes this pandemic far more serious. Vaccinations may be around 1 million per day...with maybe by now between 20/25 million vaccinated. Natural immunity also be helping-still "variants spread under the radar". 

-"Freedom" linking with responsability seems to be not a US practice for many...will to wear masks, go for lockdowns may be an even bigger problem in the US...

-DJ-Communications can make a lot of (short term-but you need short term action) difference. In the UK the BBC showing pictures of overcrowded hospitals, morgues, cemetaries made public aware of the crisis. 

When I think of yesterdays NL-(NOS) national TV news; Poor Navalny/bad Russia, Poor China facebook activists/Bad China...Poor shopowners/Bad lockdown...MSM often is simply terrible...

-Here in NL riot police deals with demonstrations-just like police deals with demonstrations in Belarus or Russia...Yellow Vests in France were presented as "idiots" if thet did the same in Russia they would be heroes..

-In the UK a woman got fined for spreading false pandemic news on social media. Would it be in China she would be a "citizen reporter"...

-Yes shopkeepers do suffer, students suffer, lots of people suffer...but that should not stop us from trying to-finally-deal with this man-made (due to inaction) pandemic...I have been "locking down" since march-and I am very p....d off on what a mess governments, WHO etc did make of this pandemic. But there is no real alternative...

If we do NOT go for strict NPI/lockdown, masks, with the variants spreading our society will collapse...it is that simple. The choice is between a lot of damage or total destruction...

"We"in Europe may still be better of then "you" in the US...It will be much harder to get people following much stricter rules-Biden can mean a lot-but not all...The US may get much closer to "social collapse" then most of Europe...

First line of defense is healthcare-from GP to ICU...that line is close to breaking point around the globe (China, Australia, New Zealand for now doing much better). 

Second line of defense is logistics, food supply, security...already stretched in many places. The US may have a problem, Brazil even worse..Military can help restoring order, stop looting, start a distribution system...

A Third line of defense is "essentials"electricity, water supply, basic transport. The US did see all three lines of defense broken after natural disasters (New Orleans, Puerto Rico)-and it took the US "much to long"to restore basics...(for such a rich country). Also the lack of preparedness was shocking-the hurricanes that did bring devastation were expected...It was good to see poplulation did whatever they could, people helping eachother..but that social network may be a problem during a pandemic...

"Poor countries" face a bigger crisis but on the other hand may be better in surviving-it is their way of life. Less transport may mean in these countries variants will spread a bit slower. ACDC (African CDC) reported above (global) average number of cases. Basic testing is a problem...many people live in mega-city-slumps. When variants can spread there it will spread like wildfire...with not even basic healthcare many will die-long term Covid19 will become a major problem for the survivors...

This pandemic will cause another refugee crisis. Rich people already in "safe places" but less rich seeking safety/treatment in "better off countries"...We can expect more of a "police state" with high tech surveilance (camera-check on temperatures, movement, people being followed 24/7 by data-centers. Why go for voluntary apps when the alternative is cheaper and more effective ?) China already has a 5G control network-able to deal with this pandemic but not gone after the pandemic...(In the "wars on terror/drugs" many states already go much further then most people realize...we already live in a surveilance state. A "police state"is just the next step on a road we already follow. Denying access to people without some qualifications...maybe a bit higher temperature, maybe not having the right vaccinations...)

Enough ! Music-Spring-La Primavera Vivaldi ! [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3nSvIiBNFo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3nSvIiBNFo DJ-Hope should be a motor helping us to find solutions, a raft keeping us from drowning ...if there is a "tsunami coming" (with for the moment cases doing DOWN !!!=old variant)  go to higher ground-the wave will be high-and full of variants...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2021 at 10:29pm

DJ,

We had very severe "corona-riots" in NL yesterday-worst since 1981 but more widespread...The answer from "politics" seem to be stop "freedom of demonstrations"...[url]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-davos-meeting-inequality/gap-between-rich-and-poor-growing-fueling-global-anger-oxfam-idUSKCN1PF00P[/url] or https://www.reuters.com/article/us-davos-meeting-inequality/gap-between-rich-and-poor-growing-fueling-global-anger-oxfam-idUSKCN1PF00P  Societies are becoming less and less equal, with large groups of the population already being treated as "second class"...The politicians that created this Covid-19 pandemic are the same ones that did increase inequalities...This pandemic is making contrasts in society even worse...

DJ-Let me be clear-I do not agree with riots, but I wonder why we have these large scale riots...Here in NL we may have a sort of BLM movement and a racist government...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychosis[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychosis ; Psychosis is an abnormal condition of the mind that results in difficulties determining what is real and what is not real.[4] Symptoms may include delusions and hallucinations.[4] Other symptoms may include incoherent speech and behavior that is inappropriate for the situation.[4] There may also be sleep problemssocial withdrawal, lack of motivation, and difficulties carrying out daily activities.[4] Psychosis can have serious outcomes.[6

DJ-We may have two "psychotic groups"in NL (and many other countries)-one large group of the population with bad housing, bad/no jobs, hardly any education-due to this pandemic sinking deeper in poverty because they do not qualify for all kind of aid-programs. The other group is those politicians that do not have any idea of how most people live, work...

In parliament those "representing"us can not possibly represent us...most of them have university degrees, often come from better of families, some of them never did low wages jobs, never been in social poor housing or even ever used public transport...Politics in NL has become something "for an elite on an island" disconnected from reality...

The numbers-France and Belgium report record numbers of hospital admissions [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ is missing that part (other sites are better on that but can take hours...). 

Sunday january 24 has lower weekend-numbers. But still much to high with most of the world in lockdown and aware of the major health crisis. Today worldometers will go over the 100 million cases...slowly variants will become the majority of all cases-it may already be over 50% of the new cases...The SA variant may see 40% less vaccine effectivity...Vaccination will not be able to deal with the mega spread of new variants all over the globe...

In new cases at #9 Indonesia, #10 Portugal...unclear what variant(s) are spreading there...I would love to see this pandemic "over in 30 days" but we may be very lucky if we will be out of the worst part of this pandemic by 2022...

-Other news-In germany a 73 y/o man died after reinfection with Covid19. His first infection was in april, second one in december. In the mean time testing negative several times. It is the 3th known case of deathly reinfection. In october a Dutch woman died after reinfection (but with very severe other health issues), in december a 74 year old Israeli man died. The idea now is that chances for reinfections are 0,02% but variants will increase risks...

-Dr.John Campbell with a vaccines a.o. update [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zo2uQvua3JA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zo2uQvua3JA ;

-Vaccination may NOT prevent infection/virus spread-but will protect against (severe) illness (so for society NPI/lockdowns are still needed even with large scale vaccinations..). Dr.J.C. new studies may find out vaccinated people may be (much) less infectious, certainly after second vaccination. But the studies are not there yet...(DJ-And since mass vaccinations are going on in many places we will see the effects within a month or so...certainly Israel may be interesting.)

-Vaccination only offer protection after two weeks in younger people, three weeks in older people-and no vaccine has 100% protection (DJ most flu vaccins may offer 60% protection so these Covid-vaccines offering 90%+ are already exceptional...)

-Dr.J.C. AZ/O vaccine-first vaccination (after two/three weeks) may protect 100% against severe illness, Pfizer may score 90%...it would be nice if we could offer second vaccine within six weeks but priority during this pandemic is to give as much people as possible at least that 100/90% protection..it will decrease pressure on hospitals..(DJ-New variants still will increase pressure-but vaccinations may "decrease the increase"...)

-In London a mass wedding may have had 400 visitors...DJ-looking at statistics organizing such an event IS organizing mass infection...You invite people into a severe, possibly deadly disease...Do you want that when organizing such an event ?  Do you want to visit such a mass-spreading disease event ? Have a think ! (Not that I expect any on this forum to go there, but communications need to get better...for to long the story was "young people do not run a risk" -that stupid story was part of the problem...!!!)

-In Wales (DJ-also in Spain, very likely many other places-Poland had another kind of problem in wich the rich and famous got vaccinated before the vulnarable..) those that were in position to "steal the chance to get vaccinated"did "steal" that chance...(DJ-There is an urgent need for extra hands in the hospitals...I hope those that misbehave will find a usefull place there..)

-The UK has a priority-list on who to vaccinate when. Goal is (at least) 15 million vaccinations (on a population of just over 68 million) by mid-february. Would include all over 70 y/o and HCWers...(DJ-Indonesia has another-interesting-strategy to vaccinate those that may spread the virus most-because of their jobs-first. For some countries that may be a better strategy..) 

-EU facing serious vaccine-supply problems, Pfizer 50% less due to reorganizing the Belgian factory-to increase production afterward. (DJ-In Marburg-Germany another factory is supposed to start production soon). Also the AZ/O vaccine still not approved by the EMA...but also dealing with production problems...Moderna is approved-but seems to be not there yet...

-DJ-Politicians still claim "all is going well" while in fact the vaccination program in the EU is becoming a disaster..Hungary did do its own thing-went for AZ/O, Sputnik-5 and may start using Chinese vaccins...(with a very low number of people willing to get vaccinated-for now...if infections go up that will change..)

-Germany made a bilateral deal with Pfizer-outside the EU for 30 million doses. The GSK/Sanofi (French) vaccine turned out to be not effective-so still needs further work...

-Brazil, Mexico can produce 100 million AZ/O vaccines per year-but due to delivery problems with a Chinese ingredient production not yet started...India did send 20 million doses AZ/O, China also sending millions of doses...but in Brazil some of those vaccines end up being sold to the highest bidder due to corruption...B-variant may be spreading not detected by PCR testing in early stages...

-India making 60% of global vaccines...giving away (!!) millions of doses to (other) "poor" countries...both AZ/O and Indian Bharat Biotech vaccines. Serum Institute of India (S.I.I.) making 50 million doses per month 

-India also approved "CoVaxin" based on dead virus parts...storage 2-8C (fridge temperatures) but still in testing status/unknow effectivity..

DJ-India will be producing 600 million AZ/O vaccines per year, Brazil, Mexico each 100 million-production in (over) 30 countries-once getting started could see over 2 billion vaccines per year (?) for the AZ/O vaccine. Russia may give Turkey room to produce Sputnik-5 vaccines, other countries could follow-both AZ/O and Sputnik-5 are adeno-virus based vaccines. China may be producing over a billion vaccines per year...Once production get started there will be more then enough vaccines...AZ/O may be "up dated"to deal with variants in a matter of a few days...so-on the long run vaccinations can change this pandemiv...

BUT......For the short term we need much stricter rules and much better communications to keep variant spread as limited as possible. Again-the SA variant may already be 40% less under vaccine control...other variants may be even worse..With the number of people infected-even tested positive-over 100 million-real number likely 1 billion and increased spread (undetected) in animals (as a real possibility) variants will be an increasing concern...

[url]https://www.debka.com/new-vaccines-around-the-corner-for-prowling-covid-variants/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/new-vaccines-around-the-corner-for-prowling-covid-variants/Striking an optimistic note, Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden, reported that, while currently only Pfizer and Moderna are approved, new coronavirus vaccines are in the pipeline to help ease the shortages. Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine candidate is “right around the corner,” he said, from seeking emergency use authorization from the Food and Drug Administration

DJ-single shot vaccinations would help...[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/ultra-religious-students-rage-against-police-in-three-towns/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/ultra-religious-students-rage-against-police-in-three-towns/ ,

[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/no-sign-of-an-israeli-covid-variant/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/no-sign-of-an-israeli-covid-variant/The Health Ministry’s Public Health head, Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis, said in an interview on Sunday that there was no knowledge of an “Israeli mutation” emerging, a possibility that was projected by AMAN (military intelligence) researchers.

DJ-This pandemic is changing the world in many ways. Since already changes started before the pandemic some processes do increase. For the short term we may be lucky if the number of global deaths would stay under 1 million in 2021...we are not doing enough to archieve that...

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCGELkozgwY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCGELkozgwY Riu, Riu, Chorale 1978 [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R%C3%ADu_R%C3%ADu_Ch%C3%ADu[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R%C3%ADu_R%C3%ADu_Ch%C3%ADu DJ basicly may be over 600 years old...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2021 at 9:58pm

DJ

-I We had riots again in NL [url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2021/01/riot-police-called-out-across-the-netherlands-as-trouble-flares-for-third-night/[/url] or https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2021/01/riot-police-called-out-across-the-netherlands-as-trouble-flares-for-third-night/ . remind me a bit of riots under Sarkozy in France, in the UK under Tatcher...

I do not agree with these riots but they are a symptom...Politicians are struggling to find new names "corona hooligans "is one of the more decent ones...The curfew is just a pretext. Mix of "protesters"is from known football hooligans to youth with migration background mixed with some (older) outsiders...

Since these riots are all over the country (and in that sense new for NL) it takes time to get riot police to where they are needed. One risk is that a small number of police can get in serious trouble and may have to use fire arms. 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/25/lowest-daily-covid-infections-since-december-1[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/25/lowest-daily-covid-infections-since-december-1 DJ-It is very likely variants are spreading-not yet picked up by testing. 

We may get into autumn weather, more rain and wind. Could stop a lot of the "riots"...Also many of the protesters did leave all kind of traces on the internet. A lot of them may see police at their doors this week...

-II The [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ numbers from january 25 (reflecting low testing on sunday january 24). Still UK  and Brazil with relatively high numbers. One-in-three new cases in the US. Total of tested/reported cases now over 100 million. World moving towards 2,5 million, US 0,5 million deaths...

-III News;

-Germany claim AZ/O vaccine not doing enough in protecting the elderly. [url]https://www.dw.com/en/astrazeneca-german-reports-on-low-efficacy-on-over-65s-completely-incorrect/a-56341198[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/astrazeneca-german-reports-on-low-efficacy-on-over-65s-completely-incorrect/a-56341198 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/905097-us-minnesota-confirms-first-known-u-s-case-of-more-contagious-covid-variant-originally-found-in-brazil-january-25-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/905097-us-minnesota-confirms-first-known-u-s-case-of-more-contagious-covid-variant-originally-found-in-brazil-january-25-2021 DJ-With only 0,3 of new cases sequenced the US is missing 99,7% in checking for all kinds of variants...

-New Zealand may keep its borders closed for the rest of 2021-with Australia as an exception. Many other countries closing borders...May help slowing the spread. Still to much air travel (with often countries as share holders in airlines...)

-China on high alert for virus/variants spread. DJ-The sooner you stop the virus the better. Seems most countries simply do not even get that...

DJ Both lots of politicians and most of the press seem to be unable to understand the basics of a pandemic, virus spread and mutation, exponential growth...We may have more knowledge now then ever before but it looks like that knowledge is "at the wrong places"...

IV DJ-I was hoping for a new video of Dr.John Campbell, Peak Prosperity [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8SFCI7F4jY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8SFCI7F4jY  from a few days ago...on how it is getting impossible to spread his info/ideas on YouTube. PP/Chris Martenson is thinking of a new "show" ...

DJ-My main sources of info are NOT the MSM-they are doing a terrible job, NOT the CDC-like sites-may have good info, some countries (Canada) have good sites-but often an overload of (older) statistics some other sites do a better job [url]https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus[/url] or https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus is a good tool if you want to take time to compare trends...

DJ-It is getting harder and harder to get good info...still enough but widespread. (Even zerohedge may have "a sparkle of light in a dark pool"). 

V WAR [url]https://thebulletin.org/2021/01/watch-the-2021-doomsday-clock-announcement-on-january-27/[/url] or https://thebulletin.org/2021/01/watch-the-2021-doomsday-clock-announcement-on-january-27/ 

[url]https://southfront.org/[/url] or https://southfront.org/ and [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/[/url] or https://www.almasdarnews.com/ give some (not neutral) news not making the headlines. 

-With trump gone Israel/Netanyahu (if he wins yet another election) is less likely to start a war with Iran. I think there may have even been some "indirect meetings" between the Syria-Assad government and "some Israeli representatives". One of the issues could be watersupply near the Golan Heights...Another issue may have been oil exploration for the Israeli/Lebanon mediterranean coast. Both Israel and Syria may want to limit Turkey in oil exploration in the Mediterranean Sea...Both Russia and China have an interest in better Middle East cooperation. They both see the Middle East as a link between Asia, Europe and Africa...

-How is Turkey/Ukraine cooperation going ? Turkey can not go anti-Russia that much...Does Ukraine want to "work" with Iran ? Turkey-Iran-Pakistan (and Afghanistan ?=TIP(A) share some same interests. There may have been some cooperation between Turkey and Pakistan in their war against Armenia (and with that in a certain way against Russia..)

-Russia-Iran-China are being pushed towards eachother by the US. With trump gone (and democrats in the US being anti-Russia, republicans anti China) how will things work out ? DJ-Two main factors; 1=Europe (without the UK) Angela Merkel will resign in september in Germany. The next German chanceler may be from the Bavaria CSU-a more conservative christian democrat-possibly also more nationalistic. In Germany AfD/Alternative for Germany is seen as far right, anti Islam but "Russia friendly". Germany may "be tired"of the US and US wars...North Stream, Russian energy, trade with China (with a China German rail link for the moment ending in the Ruhr Area) are seen as the future...

Nationalism is also growing in France-long term "partner" of Russia/Soviet Union. (Goes back much further then the Inter Cosmos project during the Soviet times...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Marseillaise#Historical_Russian_use[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Marseillaise#Historical_Russian_use ; In Russia, "La Marseillaise" was used as a republican revolutionary anthem by those who knew French starting in the 18th century, almost simultaneously with its adoption in France. In 1875 Peter Lavrov, a narodnik revolutionary and theorist, wrote a Russian-language text (not a translation of the French one) to the same melody. This "Worker's Marseillaise" became one of the most popular revolutionary songs in Russia and was used in the Revolution of 1905. After the February Revolution of 1917, it was used as the semi-official national anthem of the new Russian republic. Even after the October Revolution, it remained in use for a while alongside The Internationale.[31]

DJ -Italy, Balkan countries may get Russian oil via Turk Stream, welcome trade with China-investments from China in their ports...The biden US government did not return to the Iran-deal, may still be supporting IS, Kiev-nazi's (and have links with extremists in Europe) I think the damage between the EU and US is "very major". "F..k the EU" (from the Obama years) may represent the US view on Europe...

Factor #2 is the US "may not have seen the worst" of the present pandemic. While most European countries go for national lockdowns, may start international cooperation (quite likely willing to consider Russian, Chinese vaccines, treatments, aid) the US is offering unpractical expensive for profit vaccines...This pandemic is widening the gap between the EU and US for the moment...

A long term trend was increasing Russian and Chinese influence-that trend did "explode" in 2020. A global shift may be going on. One other outcome could be more EU/government control on large companies. From "big pharma" to US companies like Facebook, Google etc...

VI-Climate collapse [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/01/the-peril-of-high-atmospheric-methane-levels.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/01/the-peril-of-high-atmospheric-methane-levels.html ; It is hard to think of a more Orwellian expression than that describing the increase in toxic atmospheric methane gas as “gas-led recovery.”

Several of the large mass extinctions of species in the geological past are attributed to an increase in atmospheric methane (CH₄), raising the temperature of the atmosphere and depriving the oceans from oxygen. Nowadays a serious danger to the atmosphere and for the life support systems ensues from the accelerated release of methane from melting Arctic permafrost, leaks from ocean sediments and from bogs, triggered by global warming. As if this was not dangerous enough, now methane is extracted as coal-seam-gas (CSG) by fracking (hydraulic fracturing) of coal and oil shale in the US, Canada, Australia and elsewhere.

Methane-bearing formations, located about 300m-1000m underground, are fracked using a mixture of water, sand, chemicals and explosives injected into the rock at high pressure, triggering significant amounts of methane leaks into the overlying formations and escaping into the atmosphere.

DJ-Is there no limit for human insanity...Climate collapse and pandemics are linked. Increasing methane release, going for global wars for the control of fossil fuels is "energy junkie" behavior. Addiction to "energy consumption" even if that means destroying our planet...

Music-Myra-The Seekers 1964 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCws3PNCUco[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCws3PNCUco ....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 26 2021 at 9:46pm

DJ,

A look at the numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for january 26. Both total new deaths and new cases as expected higher then during the weekend-still far from record high. In the new cases top 10 the UK is at #5 with just over 20,000 new cases. The strict lockdown is decreasing the numbers in new cases even when the UK variant is dominant in the UK.

In the new cases at #10 is Portugal, #3 and 4 Spain/France very likely already hard hit by variants. The rest of the globe soon will see cases going up again. What slowed down the "old variant" is not enough to slow down the new variants.. Brazil-with over 60,000 new cases still being hit hard by the-mostly-B (Brazil) variant...

In "new deaths" the US is at #1, UK #2 with over 1600 reported deaths...there is a 30 day gap between an increase of cases and an increase of deaths..Brazil is #3 with over 1200 deaths...Since these are absolute numbers it is also good to look at cases and deaths per million. 

Czechia is (of the larger countries)  leading in cases per million 8,83% of population did get infected. The US has 7,83%, Israel 6,67 % (also high number of new cases eventhough they are global leaders in vaccination). Portugal has 6,42% of its population infected...

When you look at the total deaths per million over the duration of this pandemic Belgium has the highest dpm followed by the UK, Czechia and Italy. The US is nextfollowed by Spain, Peru, Mexico...Eventhough countries like Brazil, Portugal, India are hit hard they are not that high in relative numbers...

Of course every person dying from Covid 19 is a shame-this pandemic could and should have been prevented...

-[url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2021/01/i-april-2003-us-cdc-filed-patent-number.html[/url] or http://www.thebigwobble.org/2021/01/i-april-2003-us-cdc-filed-patent-number.html There has been research on using the corona-virus as "a means of transport" (for medication, cancer treatment ?). When that research became to risky the US-NIH "outsourced"that research to Wuhan China. 

DJ-It is still unclear if this pandemic started in a lab or came from nature (bats). Realism is at best within several years we may learn more on how this pandemic started. However it is clear how the virus could spread around the globe...

-Dr.John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U ;

 -Riots in NL DJ with curfew as excuse...both most riots were in poor area's that did have unrest at new years eve. Tuesday night was reasonably quiet...Allthough it was widespread major unrest only a few thousend youngsters were involved. From football supporters to mosque-linked groups did control inner cities yesterday to prevent further riots. 

DJ-Police has a limited capacity for riot-control. We had much worse riots in 1980/81 but those riots were in one place. Also football riots are local-on a bad day there may be incidents at several places on the same day. Sunday/monday did see unrest in over 20 places...There are talks of asking for police support from Germany and Belgium if that would be needed. 

These riots were predicted-the unrest is far from over. This pandemic is hitting some groups much harder then other groups. Above that there is a housing crisis-with "our" liberal conservative government leaving housing "to the market" wich means a lot of young people have to stay at home much longer because prices are exploding...with less jobsecurity, education prices also going up...

DJ-In my opinion the liberal conservative party is "trump with a smile", they sign all kind of UN treaties only to break them...Much more unrest could follow the march 17 election...by then the UK and other variants may see new cases per day "in the thousends" for NL. 

 -Portugal has highest new cases per capita in the world. Hospitals at 300% of bed capacity.  DJ-They are thinking of asking other countries for help. This can mean patients going to Spain (or Germany) but also medical staff going to Portugal. In the spring wave of 2020 China and Russia did send HCWers, cleanup-specialist (for bio-hazards) we may not be far from that point now..

Schools finally did close-a lot of countries (including NL) may decide to reopen schools...(because in NL the RIVM only sees a very limited spread via children even if other countries disagree...)

 -In the UK new cases are decreasing but still over 600,000 people at this moment are infected. London an d Wales still see increases. Hospital cases in the UK may have just peaked-very slowly going down-with still an increase of people on ventilation. The healthcare system in the UK still overstretched (DJ-Sometimes decrease of pressure can bring an implosion...most HCW-ers must be exhausted..another risk is people starting to take more risks-with possibly other variants showing up. DJ Even at best vaccination may offer 90/95% protection weeks after second vaccination against "old"variant. Also if risk of reinfection would be 0,1% on a population of just over 68 million that could mean 68,000 reinfections...)

 -In the US there are some doubts about testing, statistics. Dr,J.C. claims false negatives has to be limited. Dr. Fauci worried about the SA variant. DJ-Due to only marginal-0,3%-sequencing the US does not have a realistic idea of how widespread the different variants are-or even how many variants...They did detect one B variant, the UK variant must be in over 20 states, the California variant is spreading all over the US. The SA variant seems to be unclear...DJ-It is good vaccinations going up to 1,5 million per day (at least that is the plan) but variants move faster then vaccines...With limited NPI the R0 of the variants in some parts of the US "must be high"(close to 2 ?)

Dr.J.C. 70% vaccination/infection may provide herd immunity when we only deal with the old variant. Vaccination-or natural immunity after infection-may be 80% to get herd immunity for also new variants. There are still not enough vaccines/capacity to vaccinate all those that want to get vaccinated-so if there are some who do not want to get a vaccine that should not be problematic now. 

Pres.Biden hopes summer will see herd immunity-warns 600,000/660,000 US deaths-social behavior can keep numbers down. Dr.J.C. variants may mean higher number of deaths...

 -DJ The global pandemic disaster will see some perspective due to spring and summer. More ventilation, people going outdoors, ventilation (and relaxation) may bring some decrease of cases as well. Since vaccinations are taking much time to offer 90+% protection (about 1,5 month after first vaccination) and vaccination did have a slow start we will be in spring by the time vaccines may make a difference in new infections...at best. 

 -In Israel 0,015% of vaccinated did get Covid infection  andsymptoms in second week after vaccination. On average 0,65 of non-vaccinated people did get infected. (often without symptoms-60%?) They translated that to Pfizer being 96% protective (DJ-One should include social behavior in such a calculation...vaccinated people may take this pandemic more serious... Also how many of the vaccinated did get a/pre-symptomatic infection ? A lot of orthodox Jews also accept vaccination-it would be good if there was more info on that group.)

 -The EU "has a problem" with vaccine suppliers. EMA may approve AstraZeneca (UK/Sweden) vaccine january 29. Pfizer is produced in Belgium-another factory in Germany may start soon. The EU did pay over 400 million € for vaccine development...DJ-The idea is that some of those vaccines end up in Israel, US, UK, etc...NOT in the EU ! If the EU/EMA approves vaccines (also Moderna) that can not be delivered in needed numbers "there may be increased pressure" to speed up looking at Sputnik-5 vaccine, Chinese vaccines..that may be available...

 -Raphael from Belo Horizonte in Brazil; Manaus 88% of households without clean tapwater. Poor surveilance means lots of unknowns on reinfection and B-variant. (DJ-Also in Brazil most people have not yet been infected so the virus can spread..) Raphael mentioned wearing a N95-mask after getting infectid/ill in october to avoid spreading the disease. Belo Horizonte has up to 2000 ICU's on a population of 3 million in the urban area (??? Maybe they mean something else then some other countries mean with ICU-NL has 1150 ICU beds on a population of 17,5 million-in a crisis we may get stretched to 1700...)

[url]https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/[/url] or https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/ ;

The 2021 Doomsday Clock announcement

WATCH LIVE: January 27, 10am EST

DJ-We need to see this pandemic against its background of multiple crises getting worse; from climate crisis, wars to socio-economic, inequality...this pandemic is "part"of a larger proces...

Music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4G-YQA_bsOU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4G-YQA_bsOU Simon & Garfunkel - Bridge Over Troubled Water




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 27 2021 at 6:48am

The BBC has produced a good visual page on Corvid, including graphs of case rates for different countries around the world, showing recent ups and downs.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 27 2021 at 9:58pm

EdwinSm, good info !

DJ

-[url]https://thebulletin.org/2021/01/press-release-this-is-your-covid-19-wake-up-call-it-is-100-seconds-to-midnight/[/url] or https://thebulletin.org/2021/01/press-release-this-is-your-covid-19-wake-up-call-it-is-100-seconds-to-midnight/ ; WASHINGTON, D.C. – January 27, 2021  The COVID-19 pandemic will end up killing well over two million people around the globe.  The mishandling of this grave global health crisis is a “wake-up call” that governments, institutions, and a misled public remain unprepared to handle the even greater threats posed by nuclear war and climate change.  Given this and the lack of progress in 2020 in dealing with nuclear and climate perils, the Doomsday Clock remains as close to midnight  as it has ever been – just 100 seconds to midnight.

DJ-I may not agree on pandemics being a lesser threath then nuclear war or climate change. One of the major risks for the present Covid19 pandemic is its duration-with increase of numbers bringing variants-and we may be moving to an escalation of variants.

Due to hundreds of millions of infections-now with several variants-there will come new more risky variants. The "good news" is NPI/lockdowns do slow down the spread (and with that the creation of even more, more dangerous, variants. 

To much focus is on "will variants evade vaccination"-while the vaccination is starting that slow some countries may get herd immunity via vaccination after 2040. Main focus should be on reducing new infections-stop the spread. That has to be TOP-priority !!!

With close to 60% a/pre-symptomatic spread this pandemic only can get under control by massive testing-MOST in people without symptoms !!! And we are still not doing that in most countries !!!

A very major risk could be in mutations that make the virus harder to test/detect .We can only reopen society maybe on a bases of daily/weekly (self)testing and isolation/call for help if testing positive. Still lots of people do not want to get tested because a positive test means loss of income-poverty...

Via NPI, vaccination and improved testing, communication-and lots of luck-we may get out of this pandemic in this year. But we also can ruin any progress by reopening to fast-again. 

By now-being in a pandemic in fact over a year already-we should choose the path of pre-caution. It is not the way we like it-but what is wrong with keeping schools closed till the summer holidays ? 

Again-this pandemic is the outcome of human inaction in the early stages...the action that is needed to get this pandemic under control is growing exponential. If we would have had the restrictions we now see worldwide today-a year ago there would not have been a pandemic. 

Pro-activity still seems to be missing. Learning from the past is a dirty word. "Evidence based science" is good but follows after things go wrong...

DJ-The way I see it this pandemic is risk #1, climate change #2, war #3. This pandemic CAN go wrong still-destroy society-in part by its duration. It ain't over till it's over !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 27 2021 at 10:25pm

DJ

A look at the numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for january 27; In new cases US and Brazil #1 and #2-but Spain and France did pass the UK as #3 and #4-UK at #5. Portugal is at #10 with over 15,000 new cases on a population of just over 10 million. 

In "new deaths" the US remains on #1, Mexico, UK, Brazil also reporting over 1000 new deaths...South Africa at #6, Colombia at #10...

My interpretation; UK may be getting the UK variant numbers down via NPI and mass vaccination. Variant(s) spreading in France, Spain-soon will translate into healthcare in crisis. Portugal not yet out of crisis. In Latin America situation still may be getting worse...

Here in NL I did expect by now the UK variant would be increasing the new cases. NPI lockdown, curfews, people taking this virus/variant more serious may be slowing down also the UK variant. It will become the main variant still-and remain a problem...opening schools for now would be unwise. If there were no variants the picture would be good-it is the variants (most UK but also SA are found in NL) that create the risk. The RIVM/Dutch CDC calculated 1-in-3 infections in NL has to be the UK variant a few days ago...in the beginning of this month it was believed 1-in-20...

Since the younger age groups showed the most positive tests-while often only having mild health issues-still being the motor behind the pandemic. The curfew, closing of (as good as) all schools may have slowed that spread. Reopening to fast will undo in days the results from weeks...

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrTvpBUdmHI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrTvpBUdmHI 

 - UK variant gives more often (most classical) symptoms-but much less loss of smell. (Good part is more UK variant cases may go/spread undetected...bad part may be 1,3 to 1,4 (Dr.J.C.) deadly)

 -UK showing less new cases, still over 30,000 people with Covid19 in hospital, over 4000 on ICU DJ-The general UK picture however is the UK getting things under control-but restarting things to fast may create another crisis. What is wrong with february still in "crisis-mode" to get the R0 much closer to 0 ? (Or keep we repeating R0>1=lockdown, R0<1=reopening wich puts the R0 over 1 again-do we learn anything from just recent past or are we that stupid repeating over and over the same insanity-"saving economy"?)

 -Since deaths follow cases with a delay of 30 days the UK still seeing very high (1000+) numbers of death per day-and will keep seeing them for still a few weeks. The UK now over 100.000 deaths...#5 in global-reported- deaths after US, Brazil, India, Mexico.

 -Portugal very hard hit by the (most likely) UK variant-healthcare overstretched. They start thinking of sending patients to Spain-but there also numbers going up fast...

In general countries take three steps; lockdowns/NPI, vaccination, travel restrictions

 -US cases, hospital cases (in general) decreasing, number of deaths still high. Dr.J.C. fears what variants may do-only very low number (<1%) of new cases sequenced=lots of spread under the radar. DJ-Maybe in part US numbers were already high due to-undetected-variants. People may be more aware of risks in the US, going for self isolation more then in other countries without government rules...(Of course there always are large groups that ignore warnings/rules-but when you follow developments in practice individuals respond faster to "the news"than governments/CDC etc. Certainly in larger countries do not wait for government rules because they are ALWAYS running behind the facts...)

 -US vaccinations going "full speed" close to 1 million per day-over 24 million had first vaccination, over 4 million did even get second vaccination. DJ-Both US and UK are doing almost very good by now in vaccinations...Rest of the world (with a few exceptions-Israel on vaccinations =#1) should learn from that...in the EU vaccinations still problematic. 

DJ-Here in NL we "managed"to split up vaccination of the elderly in FIVE groups...even if they live in the same care center. First those seeing a geriatric doctor, then the 90+, 3=85+, 4=80+ 5=70+ age group..."rational insanity"...

 -China starts using anal swabs. Since an infection travels through the body these anal swabs may detect infection where nose/mouth swabs may no longer find virus parts. People may still spread the virus via the sewage/stool but no longer via the respitory system...(wich may contaminate surfaces if there is not enough hygiene..). 

DJ-Logic when you deal with a pandemic, but can you "enforce" people to do that kind of testing ? (Could samples not be taken from urine, excrements ? "Things going out instead of going in"?)...May be a step forward in getting this pandemic under control still...

UK variant now showing up in several places in China. For people coming into China four week program-two weeks quarantine in hotel, one week at home and in fourth week daily reporting to healthcare for testing. Lunar new year is coming soon-China may go for travel restrictions to avoid further variant spread. DJ-The New Silk Road policy did even send tens of millions Chinese people around the globe on top of the many million people with Chinese background already worldwide..All those people may want to visit family/places in china-but should not do so now...

 -EU vaccine problems...DJ-I think Dr.J.C. is correct; EU was late in ordering vaccines, late in approving vaccines (still has to approve the AZ/O vaccine, other vaccines also still waiting for approval by the EU a.o. Sputnik-5, Chinese vaccines..). If vaccines are a main part of the strategy in getting out of this pandemic why the EU is this slow ? But countries like China, Australia in fact even doing less in vaccinations...

Other news;

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/905332-zimbabwe-oks-use-of-ivermectin-after-officials-deaths[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/905332-zimbabwe-oks-use-of-ivermectin-after-officials-deaths 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/904748-india-58-yr-old-doctor-and-46-yr-old-ward-worker-have-fatal-heart-attacks-after-astrazeneca-vaccine-updated-9-hcw-s-dead[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/904748-india-58-yr-old-doctor-and-46-yr-old-ward-worker-have-fatal-heart-attacks-after-astrazeneca-vaccine-updated-9-hcw-s-dead 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/new-zealand-ad/904981-new-zealand-community-case-is-south-african-strain-2-more-cases-announced-locally-more-news-following[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/new-zealand-ad/904981-new-zealand-community-case-is-south-african-strain-2-more-cases-announced-locally-more-news-following 

Yesterday the WHO reported; UK variant now detected in 70 countries (+10 in 1 week). SA variant in 31 countries (+8) and Brazil variant in 8 countries (+6) [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 In that news no mention of other (US etc) variants... DJ Nigeria, Germany, Argentina may have had limited spread that stopped becoming a major problem ? The California variant may be spreading in the US-be dominant in California...a bit strange there is no more news on that (two variants 20C and 20G) spread...

DJ-This pandemic is far from over but we may be getting a little more of a grip on it. Travel restrictions/keeping borders closed and better communications help. People acting more wise-by limiting/no contacts also help. Vaccinations will help on the longer term-but due to large numbers even 1 million vaccinations per day for the US may bring herd immunity via vaccinations after summer...and then the US is going high-speed !

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbn6o5tiPds[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbn6o5tiPds  All By Myself - Eric Carmen 1976



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2021 at 10:52pm

DJ

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/brazil-covid-19/905445-brazil-detects-infection-with-two-coronavirus-variants-at-once[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/brazil-covid-19/905445-brazil-detects-infection-with-two-coronavirus-variants-at-once and [url]https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/saude/noticia/2021-01/brazil-detects-infection-two-coronavirus-variants-once[/url] or https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/saude/noticia/2021-01/brazil-detects-infection-two-coronavirus-variants-once

At least two people experienced the so-called co-infection—the simultaneous infection of two different lineages of the novel coronavirus. According to researchers, co-infection with the variant E484K had not been described thus far.

Co-infection is alarming, the scientists said, because it combines genomes of different lineages, allowing further combinations resulting in evolution for the virus. Nonetheless, the two patients showed only light to moderate symptoms and are recovering with no need for hospitalization.

Also detected was the circulation of five different lineages of the virus in the state, among them a new one, initially dubbed VUI-NP13L. At this moment, researchers are studying this new lineage, which includes viral isolation and an investigation on neutralization or antibodies present in recovered and infected patients.

The study raises concerns due to the possibility of spread of this lineage to other states as well as neighboring countries, a note issued by LNCC reads.

DJ-As I mentioned earlier-we are now in a phase of explosion of variants...The virus did get the chance-most likely-to infect more then a billion times-most in humans and minks but also in lots of other species. We are slowly discovering an emerging explosion of variants. 

Virusses mutate all the time, most-ad random-mutations make the virus weaker. Mutations are mistakes in reproduction of the virus in host cells. The problem is the virus had that many chances-most NOT detected/reported-some mutations make this virus a mucg bigger risk for humans.

Co-infection by two types of the corona-virus may be the fastest way to get new variants even further away from the "old variant". 

The problem with vaccination [url]https://innovationorigins.com/corona-in-europe-not-only-the-netherlands-is-vaccinating-at-a-snails-pace/[/url] or https://innovationorigins.com/corona-in-europe-not-only-the-netherlands-is-vaccinating-at-a-snails-pace/ is that you need to vaccinate at least over 7 billion people. Herd immunity with only the old variant may be at 70% of all people vaccinated-with new variants maybe 80/90% would work-we are now beyond the point of a limited number of new variants but facing a "cluster bomb" of lots of variants..

Although I am NOT an expert, do not have any science background-just know some history-common sense is for all of us.

If in Manuas Brazil already 75% of the population was supposed to have natural immunity from 2020 infections but the new Brazil variant(s) simply ignore that vaccination and natural immunity may be of "limited" use. (DJ-Maybe no use at all..)

Vaccinations only may influence wich virus-variants will further explode. Some (maybe even milder) variants may be stopped by immunity via infection or vaccination only to give way to variants that evade immunity...

The only effective way to deal with this would be a "freeze" -more or less global lockdown-strategy. Maybe a month global lockdown-two months some reopening-followed by another month long lockdown ? 

So far the goal often was to get the R0 just under 1-to "save both healthcare and economy". That strategy was a disaster from the start. You have to get the spread-the R0-to ZERO...and by now that will be a hard/impossible job.

What to expect ? A lack of international cooperation, running behind the facts will worsen the global situation. There are claims the B (Brazil) variant spreads 3 times faster then the UK variant...The SA (South Africa) variant also is believed to spread faster...

International travel has been limited. That is good eventhough the variants are already spread all over the globe...Most countries already are going for lockdowns...it would be better if that was done with some coordination. These two steps (limit travel and lockdown) can slow down the spread of the variants..Vaccinations (worldwide by now less the 100 million people did get at least one vaccination-global population is 7,5 billion) may also slow down the variants...

Dealing with this pandemic will become global top-priority since it is survival of humans as a species. New vaccines may offer more protection. New ways of vaccinating (a sticker with micro-needles, inhalers, a sort of chewing gum) may provide a way to vaccinate more people faster...

Sewage control on virus parts can become more detailed-to see what virus is spreading where and to find the best answer. Also self-testing has to be done almost on a daily basis for all of us. If you test positive you stay in isolation-but you will get an income/food/care...

We do have the basics to deal with this further escalation of the pandemic-we "simply"have to do much better in how we use these basics (sewage control/testing all of us, vaccines/NPI)

Those basics may also be helping in the next pandemic that may already be here in the basics..We have to reduce meat production, may have to rethink maybe what kind of pets we take, stop overpopulation by better familyplanning and much better education...

This pandemic offers us the choice to do things better or deal with the consequences...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2021 at 11:02pm

DJ,

A look at the numbers for january 28 [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ may give us an idea where to find new variants. US, Brazil and Spain are in the top 3. Portugal at 10. South Africa (SA) at #19. The UK and SA  may be getting a grip on new variants-via strict lockdowns. So far Brazil, Portugal, Spain, France have a serious problem. They will go for stricter rules/NPI to decrease new cases. 

When you look at the global picture we did have over 800,000 new cases on several days early this month. January 8 almost had 850,000 new cases in just one day. The last two days global numbers were just over 600,000 per day. Both the US and Brazil keep high number of reported cases. Several other countries will have high number of infections but no/limited testing so no/limited reporting...

Dr.John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_KFIhQsU70[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_KFIhQsU70 ;

-In England (so not the UK !) there is monthly widespread testing on volunteers who are cooperating in monitoring virus spread. Over 167,000 people send in swabs, answered questions. Of those 2282 (or 1,57%) had antigens for Covid in januari 2021. 

-During the period 6-22 january test showed only minor reduction of cases (DJ-All tests spread over time may give an insight in what is happening during that period). R0=0,98

-Allthough there was a lockdown still much mobility, also the UK variant is 55% more infectious. 

-London had prevalence of 2,83%. In England age group of 18/24 y/o had prevalence of 2,44% , 65 y/o+ had 0,93% (DJ-May indicate this pandemic still more an urban problem-young people may be spreading more then other age groups (without symptoms often..)

-Single households =1,24% household of 7 people or more =3,05% In 40% poorest area's 1,79% prevalence, in 40% richest area's 1,22% prevalence. 

-Black/Asian =3,07%, White=1,14% (Dr.J.C. vitamin D link ?), HCW-ers 1,48% other workers 1,35% prevalence

-Highest prevalences since first monthly monitoring in may 2020. (Dr.J.C. it may have been even worse before, but there was no monitoring-so we do not realy know.)

Value of this monitoring is it controls/checks other ways of getting a picture of this pandemic. If monitoring would give a different picture other ways of controlling may need corrections (DJ-If the prevalance of the virus would be much higher in monitoring maybe one needs more ad random testing). Dr.J.C. also warns UK variant did "explode"in just four months. Exponential growth starts always with a first case...

-Conclusions of this january England monitoring; pressure on healthcare will remain high, lockdown much less effective then earlier lockdowns (DJ-So no room for reopening anything...maybe even a need for stricter rules to get spread down).

-DJ-I do not shy away from some socio/political points; how is access to healthcare in poor area's in England. Black/Asian people more likely to live in the poorer area's. Are medical facilities nearby ? How is (public) transport ? (Here in NL you more and more need a car to get anywhere...often without a car it was hard to get tested...poor people (or "green people") do not want a car...so is it harder to get tested ? Poor people often in high risk jobs...If vitamin D is a problem then vitamin D also can be a very cheap solution ! Is anyone taking responsibility to get more vitamin D in some-poorer-communities "or is it not their responsibility..do they act when people get ill, costs explode, healthcare crashes ? Prevention should be top-priority !

There are also antibody tests in England to see if you did have an infection in the last (around) four months (antigen testing finds out if you are at present infected by the virus). Dr.J.C. has a video on that-bloodsample in test-kit-take a picture to send to testing facility...

-New variants; Dr.J.C. answers some questions-by now we know the standard-answers. Still DJ-if a virus mutation means some segments are lossed (like 69/70 in some mutations) does this make the virus lighter ? I think since virus are surrounded by water-and the Covid19 virus is made up from over 32,000 segments in the RNA strain the effects of "depletion"of a few segments will not make much difference. 

-A lower viral load of new variants may get people infected. Keeping more then six feet distance is advised...New variants may increase mortality in younger persons but since that number was very low the UK variant may not be dramatic. (A 30% increase on hardly any mortality still is very limited.)

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXTJBr9tt8Q[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXTJBr9tt8Q The Beatles in New York in 1965...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2021 at 10:08pm

DJ,

A short look at the numbers for januari 29 [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Basicly good news; NPI is also keeping variants down. We are far away from the end of this pandemic-biggest risk is reopening to fast without precautions...Barbers may have new ways of protecting themselves and their customers-they need to be able to deal with the hair-so a mask under the hairline may be a clever protection. Shielding, in combination with masks and good ventilation may enable some activities.

Maybe news from Brazil, Portugal, London, LA hospitals at breaking point did alarm enough people-and media-to get enough people going for NPI. Good communications are essential !

Dr.John Campbell; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynyYvM7rzQ0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynyYvM7rzQ0 ; (most info/links under the video)

-DJ, New vaccines Novavax, J&J DJ-We have to see how it will out in practice-it may protect some groups good against severe disease but less against (milder) infection. The EMA allowed AZ/O...The way I see it is vaccination in combination with NPI/lockdown seems to already be slowing down this "monster" pandemic...far from perfect but maybe the best we have for now...

-New vaccines may offer some protection against new variants-very welcome ! Also often new vaccines; 1-cheap-so affordable for more countries/people, 2 easy to store/transport-no -70C deep freeze (boxes) needed (and maybe 3 like Pfizer-US-BioNtech-Germany and Astra-Zeneca UK/Sweden the outcome of international cooperation-less a "propaganda tool"-for that matter AZ/O working with Russian Sputnik-5 together creating an improved version also dealing with variants would be welcome-this is a GLOBAL and very serious-crisis !)

-Novavax-95% protection against old variant, 85% against UK variant, 60% against SA variant in people without HIV, in SA almost 50% protection in HIV+ population (In SA region around 20% of population). DJ-Still it can slow down spread/illness of variants...People vaccinated sometimes still may get infected/spread virus...so NPI still needed but health care system no longer at breaking point.)

-DJ-Both SA and Brazil report natural immunity from old variant has "limited protection" against new variants...DJ-Newer variants are already on their way even further from the "old one"-vaccines can get reformulated to deal with the new variants...Problem may evolve that worldwide several different variants may show up and vaccines may offer good protection against some variants but "not enough" to stop spread of other variants..Still the idea is to slow down variants and with that the creation of newer variants as best as we can...far from perfect but much better then nothing ! 

-DJ-Vaccines can keep healthcare working, lockdowns, travel restrictions have to stop variants from spreading. If the FDA, or the EMA etc approves a vaccine it would be welcome that approval would be good enough to start using that vaccine. Monitoring is needed to see what vaccine gives the best results in wich group. Vaccine strategy will need to look at results to become better...

-The Johnson & Johnson single-shot adeno-vaccine is showing results. These results in the US, Latin America, South Africa have to deal with variants-so they will show less effect then "older testing" wich had less to deal with variants. Overall effectivity 85%-and a major factor is it just needs ONE vaccination, has already effects after two weeks...cheap, fridge temperature...Claims 100% protection against severe disease in 28 days (wich is much faster then the two-shots vaccinations so far-eventhough they also offer almost 100% protection against severe disease, you need another vaccination after 21/28 days...) Not for profit-production in 8 plants, 7 countries..

-Dr.J.C. some light fever after vaccination is part of the proces. Paracetemol etc. may damage immunization-so do not use them !

DJ-Just as a reminder-the reason why this virus could become this pandemic is human-inaction and repeated stupidity...the human factor remains the biggest problem in this pandemic. A total lack of understanding how pandemics work, blind for facts, recent events mean "we will learn the hard way". This pandemic (in many ways like the Spanish Flu of 1918) is MAN-MADE !!! If we keep failing it is our own stupidity that will kill us-we have "to fix stupid" because the price for not doing that is way to high !!!

Music ; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bk6YMy3JUnY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bk6YMy3JUnY The Korgis, Everybody's Got To Learn Sometimes...



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2021 at 1:01pm

DJ,

When discussing the B (P1 and P2) and SA variant one has to look at the background. Testing [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ in both countries is poor. 

Brazil has done just almost 134,000 tests per million, South Africa over 137,000 per million. Denmark has done over 2,000,000 tests per million, the UK just over, the US just under 1 million per million. Real number of cases in both Brazil and SA must be far higher then reported cases/deaths...

Since the SA, B (P1 and P2) variants are spreading we may discover the R0 could be closer to the UK variant-maybe even the risks of reïnfection be limited. NPI, lockdown, travel restrictions-if in place-could give a different picture then when there are "limited restrictions". 

[url]https://english.elpais.com/americas/2021-01-29/study-finds-that-brazils-jair-bolsonaro-carried-out-an-institutional-strategy-to-spread-the-coronavirus.html?ssm=TW_CC[/url] or https://english.elpais.com/americas/2021-01-29/study-finds-that-brazils-jair-bolsonaro-carried-out-an-institutional-strategy-to-spread-the-coronavirus.html?ssm=TW_CC ; On the contrary, the systematization of data, although incomplete due to the lack of space for publishing so many events, reveals the government’s commitment and efficiency in favor of the widespread dissemination of the virus over the Brazilian territory, clearly stated as having the objective of restarting economic activity as soon as possible and at whatever cost,” says the publication’s newsletter. “We hope this timeline provides an overview of a process we are undergoing in a fragmented and frequently confusing fashion.”

DJ-When does indifference becomes genocide ? [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/30/outbreak-team-tells-dutch-government-reopen-primary-schools-report[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/30/outbreak-team-tells-dutch-government-reopen-primary-schools-report DJ-Prior to the Outbreak Management Team meeting our government told them what outcome they wanted. March 17 there will be elections in NL. 

Eventhough spread in and via children is regarded as proven somehow "Dutch children would be different"... 

[url]https://interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/covid-performance/[/url] or https://interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/covid-performance/ ; Norway, (18) Finland (17), Denmark (23), Iceland (7)doing very well in the ranking per country. New Zealand is #1, Viet Nam #2, Taiwan #3, Australia #8.

The UK #66, France 73, NL 75,  South Africa 82, US 94, Mexico 97, Brazil 98 DJ-You can ask questions on this ranking-proberbly based on reported cases/deaths. 

DJ-A pandemic is big bussineses; [url]https://innovationorigins.com/is-a-national-pandemic-center-coming-to-the-netherlands/[/url] or https://innovationorigins.com/is-a-national-pandemic-center-coming-to-the-netherlands/

In order to be a step ahead, a number of companies led by Siemens Healthineers and Siemens Smart Infrastructure are aiming to build a central facility with room for 1,500 IC beds at a central location in the Netherlands. The Delta Medical Center can be built within a year according to Jeroen de Bruin, spokesperson for Siemens Healthineers.

Although this may be too late for the current pandemic, it will enable regular healthcare to continue during a future virus outbreak. “With the help of vaccines, corona should eventually be under control,” says De Bruin. But experts have no doubt that there will be another pandemic, he says. “Virologists point out that with our lifestyle – as we live close to each other – and the way we deal with biodiversity, it is impossible to prevent something like this from happening ever again. It’s not a question of if, but when.”

Preparing is good, prevention is better !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2021 at 10:19pm

DJ,

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ For january 30. Eventhough it is a weekend-low-number the recent days show NPI can reduce cases-that is good news, it does not do that enough is the bad part. Vaccinationes are having a slow start worldwide. Israel, some small Gulf States are doing good, US and UK are getting started. Most of the rest-including the EU-not doing very well yet...

Due to the UK variant the UK, Ireland and Portugal still seeing higher numbers-even with strong restrictiones. In Brazil the biggest problem is not the variant but a government not doing much to stop it...

The tests per million gives some indications on where vaccinations may have a good chance. DK, UK, US, Israel are all in the top 20. Even Germany-most of the time doing a good job-only makes it to #50 in this testing-per-million list...France 30, Italy 40, NL 54..

Since lockdowns have much social consequences-and may not be enforced without public support-(with large protests in France against corona restrictions/police laws, in Poland people demonstrate against catholic extremist Piz-party still in government.)

Variants are spreading in Europe-reopenings will bring a rise in cases...

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgBvEYC-xkE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgBvEYC-xkE ;

-The WHO investigation team in China going for "expectation management". (DJ-What else did Dr.J.C. expect ? Their trip is to gather information-not to make statements already on how it all started. The US state dept. "blaming China/China "US bio-weapon" is not very productive...) BBC was in China in 2020 trying to learn more on a Yunnan SARS-like outbreak in 2012-a.o. killing 3 miners...China stopped that research...It is quite possible that between 2003 (SARS-1) and 2019 (SARS-2) there could have been another-smaller-outbreak. Dr.J.C. believes zoönotic origen most likely...

-In the "vaccin-fight" between the UK and EU France and Germany claim AZ/O vaccine "not protecting 65+y/o". Dr. J.C. shows the Lancet nov-28 study...shows the opposite.."politics going (again) for fakenews"...DJ-Even if it would be less effective in the older age group the EU does not come with an alternative...No vaccinations would be (much) worse then using the AZ/O vaccine...(DJ-A lot of vaccines go for adeno-virus as a basis, AZ/O, Sputnik-5, J&J...so why that would not be effective ?)

-Dr.J.C. AZ/O gives T-cell immunity after two weeks-first vaccination...keeps people away from severe infection..Prof. John Bell Oxford-vaccine team; "Does not know where Macron did get his info" (because the France/German story is to cover up their own faillures in this pandemic.)

-EMA authorized AZ/O for all ages 18+ on january 29-the UK did so december 30 Pfizer approved by EMA december 21, UK december 3...EMA had a christmas break from december 23 till january 4...in the middle of a pandemic the group that had to approve vaccines did take a two week break...

-In march 2020 the EU wanted to buy PPE for all memberstates-after two weeks decided member states had to buy their own PPE. German BioNTech could not get funding from the EU for their vaccine and had to link to Pfizer-US to get "warp-speed money"...EU was willing to buy vaccines but not fund research that was needed to find vaccines...(DJ-I sense a Dutch government smell; penny wise pound foolish..)

-EU now may block vaccines produced in the EU from being exported outside the EU...A lot of vaccines (AZ/O, Pfizer, J&J are made inside the EU). DJ-the idea was the UK would have two plants in the UK producing AZ/O vaccines...Another question is when new mega-vaccine producers (AZ/O in the UK-largest in the world, Pfizer/BioNTech in Marburg Germany) will finally open...DJ-Shortage of vaccines will not last that long-approval is still an obstacle...When new factories open vaccines will be produced by over 250 million doses per month. For now in Pune-India the largest factory is already preparing to produce 100 million (AZ/O) vaccines per month I believe...a new UK plant would even produce more...AZ/O will be produced in over 30 countries (DJ-I would not be surprised if AZ/O and Sputnik-5 did a joined investigation on how to deal with variants...their vaccines have some similarities...Sputnik-5 will be produced in Russia and Turkey..other countries may follow (a.o. India)

-DJ We will need vaccines not only to get out of this pandemic but also to stay out of it...Two vaccines (for most programs) may not be enough to also deal with the variants..NPI has its limits...This is highly political-now rhe UK is out of the EU it is loking for new partners-may join Pacific Partnerships but also could have interests in "improving relations"with Russia and China (to avoid the EU is getting all of Chinese investments..). (Besides that Sputnik-5 helped AZ/O when they ran into trial-problems...on a science level it may well be AZ/O and Sputnik both would like more cooperation..)

-Dr.J.C. vaccines now available are the outcome of US proactivity (DJ-and yes-that was under trump...trump also kept the US out of new wars, biden seems to be reinvesting IS/US partnership [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/01/syria-the-us-controlled-al-tanf-serves-as-isis-base-truth-or-propaganda.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/01/syria-the-us-controlled-al-tanf-serves-as-isis-base-truth-or-propaganda.html again NATO stands for North Atlantic Terrorist Organization, or North American Thieves of Oil...nazi's after 45 became nato...)

-Three ways variants are created; 

1 In numbers-more infections is more reproduction mistakes/mutations=variants

2 Immuno repressed persons may see longer infection so the virus can "develop"longer in the person, resulting in variants (HIV+ may be in this group becoming a reservoir for a longer time)

3 If most people are vaccinated/natural immunity those variants that still can survive have to find away to evade (most forms of) immunity (otherwise the virus goes extinct..)

DJ-Maybe in how humans react to this "virus invasion" we are now in step 2-organize defenses...If we are very lucky there may be "signs of succes" second half of 2021...But travel restrictions will stay (much) longer (I hope-even with Airlines pushing to be saved...)

The main factor is how people behave...do they rake this pandemic serious or not...Even in China the government needs public support to get results...Good communications are essential-insane politicians claiming "we beat the virus"for election reasons (like in NL) are a very major risk...

WAR

trump destroyed a lot of results from diplomacy [url]https://southfront.org/international-security-system-is-on-its-way-to-collapse/[/url] or https://southfront.org/international-security-system-is-on-its-way-to-collapse/ 

[url]https://southfront.org/1-billion-for-strike-on-iran/[/url] or https://southfront.org/1-billion-for-strike-on-iran/  DJ-Israel is increasing pressure on the US not to re-join the Iran-deal. Israel and some Sunni-monarchy dictatorships sponsering IS (etc) may join forces against Iran and its allies...

DJ-Complicating the Middle East North Africa (MENA) situation is Turkey being in conflict with Egypt, Israel, Greece over oil in the Mediterranean Sea. Countries like Lebanon, Jordan may become the next war-zones in several conflicts (between Turkey and Egypt over oil, between Iran and Gulf States...)

I do think Israel will think "a lot" before starting a war with Iran. Russia and China consider Iran as a major link in their plans (connecting Russia with the Indian ocean, China with the EU/Africa). Both Russia, China and the EU may push for de-escalation...

The US will not openly support an Israel attack on Iran...wich could be the end of Israel...but will the US do enough to stop it ? Since the US "has problems" with increasing influence of Russia and China...(de facto NATO is after Russian oil...)

Turkey is seeking partnership with Ukraine-(but both are close to bankrupt)-maybe to get a grip on talks with Russia (a partner for Turkey via energy-Turk stream, weapons S-500 joint production plans, vaccines-Sputnik-5 also produced in Turkey..) Turkish plans are seen as a threat by Arab states...if they would join Israel in an attack on Iran could the result be a new Turkish Empire ?

DJ-De facto the US is no longer in control of many conflicts...The damage was not only done by trump but also before that...A CSU chancellor in Germany may be "more oriented"towards Russia, more nationalistic... Some experts do warn the US the alternative for the CCP in China may be nationalism-and could be much worse for the US...

Music No Other Love-Jo Stafford- I believe from 1950-so over 70 years old...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjDqMftHbKI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjDqMftHbKI based on Tristesse from Chopin [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89tude_Op._10,_No._3_(Chopin)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89tude_Op._10,_No._3_(Chopin) from 1832...



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2021 at 9:37pm

DJ,

-In the Main Stream Media it is simple, protests in the west are against corona measures, in Russia they are against Putin...of course Russian economy is hit hard as well. Of course reasons for protests may be the same there as in most western countries...(not getting enough compensation, to many restrictions..)

And China in some MSM is even worse because of CCP rule...MSM has failed in communicating on this pandemic. Often making breaking the rules look funny...No tourists allowed in Austria then those tourists call themselves "ski-instructors" and they are allowed...

-Numbers are low for last day of january [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ But still new cases did not stop, the R0 is far from zero, new variants must be increasing...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 In the US the California variant seems to be finding new ways to infect people...

January did see new variants showing up and start spreading. In Portugal, Israel, Ireland the UK variant did do a lot of damage-while the UK did reduce the number of new cases..[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahus-challengers-and-some-allies-seethe-over-mass-funeral-of-top-rabbi/amp/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahus-challengers-and-some-allies-seethe-over-mass-funeral-of-top-rabbi/amp/ One of the "red lines" in this pandemic is finding a balance between freedom of religion and measures to get this virus under control...(You do not want riotpolice at a funeral...)

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/search?r=121560229&p=1[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/search?r=121560229&p=1 with lots of news often ignored by MSM...

-Another source of info still is Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWisodX7QtY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWisodX7QtY (DJ-On You Tube there may be some others doing a good job-Dr.J.C. is giving as good as every day updates...);

 -US and UK cases going down-difference is UK did already deal with UK variant, in US variants still will be increasing...DJ-Dr.J.C. does not mention the California variant, other variants may already be widespread in the US. Lack of sequencing means variants did spread under the radar. Also lots of countries will see new variants increasing...It is good (air)travel almost stopped-it should be stopped till at least after summer-for safety. Other new variants have to be expected so NPI/lockdowns have to stop those variant from getting dominant...

Let me be very clear-we can still lose this "battle against the virus" !!!! Some effects of this pandemic, a.o. on mental health need more attention. Also the certainty of a basic income would help making people follow restrictions...On the balance Freedom versus Responsibility we all have to move to taking our own responsibility !!! Freedom and Responsability are two sides of the same coin !

History does show us pandemics can destroy societies..it is up to us to avoid those scenario's !!!

 -The more symptoms you have in the first week the more likely a Covid-19 infection will get severe. Monitoring first symptoms can help preparing for the next steps. DJ-In Spain the did find a few new symptoms [url]https://www.thelocal.es/20210127/covid-tongue-spanish-study-identifies-new-virus-symptoms[/url] or https://www.thelocal.es/20210127/covid-tongue-spanish-study-identifies-new-virus-symptoms ; Changes to the tongue, the hands or the soles of the feet could give an early indication of Covid-19 infection, Spanish researchers found in a study presented Tuesday.

DJ-Early (lack of) symptoms are indicators for a proces that can kill someone. The better we recognize them, the better early treatment can get.

 -Dr.J.C. made a list of symptoms as a checklist. There are some difference for men and women. Men run more risk for severe illness (due to more ACE-2 receptors), women may have more risk with less symptoms but their chances for severe illness are believed to be smaller.

DJ-The check-list did not yet deal with new variants. Early monitoring of symptoms may help to see if variants give some other early warnings. It would be a good idea if there was a place to report symptoms after a positive test-to get "big data" and see if patterns change-also due to age, gender, condition. Checking oxygen,heartrate and temperature on a weekly basis all the time may not be a bad idea. Preventative healthcare should be the norm, NOT waiting till first symptoms show up-for whatever illness..

 -Dr.J.C. believes doctors will be happy if you can give lots of info on early symptoms. DJ; A problem is lots of doctors still may not know how to deal with that kind of info, do NOT welcome patients that may know more sometimes on their situation then doctors do...

I would welcome doctors working with computers that have a database on patients. Computers are much better in combining/detecting patterns...The role of doctors should be interpretation of those patterns...

 -A security guard at a Perth (?) Western Australia  (WA) quarantine hotel may have picked up the UK variant-spread it as an uber-driver around the region. So WA going into a 5 day lockdown...if it is a more infectious variant Australia could be "back in the fight"...Dr.J.C.why is Australia that slow in vaccinations ? 

 -In the US last week new cases down 14,4%, hospitalizations down 13,9%, vaccinated over 30 million. DJ In combination with natural immunity after infection one would expect some herd immunity effects this month. Vaccination starts having some protection after a few days-takes a few weeks to get full results. This month we may see in the US how immunity works out. Israel is another "test case" with over half the population being vaccinated on top of widespread assumed natural immunity-but still seeing high numbers...(with in orthodox Jewish communities 4x more infections then average..)

DJ-One of the "political/ethical" questions may become how to increase NPI/vaccinations etc. in religious groups if those groups are the key in getting a pandemic under control. If they refuse to follow rules or accept vaccinations will they accept getting isolated from the rest of the country ? Would you want that as a government when "concentration" of such a group with high virus spread may mean most/all of them getting infected ? Including children, babies...? Very old people, vulnarables...

 -Dr.J.C. has a short video from Dr. Tom Robb on the next pandemic. We did have a sort of pandemic warning system because of the A-H5N1 (bird)flu jumping to humans-60% deadly...it did not become the next pandemic because H5N1 did not spread that easy between humans-in fact we were lucky... A problem with bird-flu is you can not stop birds from flying-thus spreading the virus...To reduce the risks we have to rethink food/meat production. There are good alternatives-(DJ-Also would help in air quality, climate change) for meat...DJ-Due to short term economic interest and utter stupidity "we" still refuse to learn from history...fossil fuels, meat consumption are destroying the planet ! Why people still believe it is a good idea to have lots of children while for the human species to many humans on this planet is becoming a deadly risk...

 -Dr.J.C. comes up with insect, plankton (full of Omega-oils fish get from eating plankton) as alternatives for meat. DJ-We know of alternative foods, like we know of alternative for fossil fuels...only it does not work that way in a greed based-money=power world...

Most of the profits you can make in trading humans-full of drugs-from Latin America to the US...double profit-human trading and drugs...That it is against the law did not stop that trade (with intel all over involved). Also trade of weapons is a big profit maker, porn doing well...If you are talking about Chinese cruelty to animals please do not forget how "we"cut pigs-still alive-in two pieces, how we beat cows into transport vans, slaughter houses-where workers get underpaid, exploited, infected...

We have to rethink the way we live...because plasic soup in the oceans, minks eating eachother in cages is criminal and insane...The MSM is ignoring that message-there is no profit in those facts...and money matters even if that is killing us...

Music; Money Pink Floyd 1973-almost 50 years old and we did not learn a thing...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0kcet4aPpQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0kcet4aPpQ 



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2021 at 10:28pm

DJ,

A look at the numbers for february 1 [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ may give a false impression. Those numbers reflect (lack of) sunday testing/reporting. Also many countries already have strict lockdowns. [url]https://dutchreview.com/coronavirus/dutch-curfew-to-end-february-10/[/url] or https://dutchreview.com/coronavirus/dutch-curfew-to-end-february-10/ .

Epidemologists/virologists warn for the variants that are increasing. In NL the UK variant is believed to got over 50% of the cases january 26-while earlier models predicted we would get to 50% mid february. One of the reasons for getting there earlier may be regulations did get the old variant R0 far below 1. Problem is that that is not the case for the UK variant. UK already found the UK variant is 55% more infectious-here in NL-against a lockdown background the (relative) number of reproduction is 40/45% higher then the old variant. 

We also have detected 5 Brazil variants, 14 SA variants...but it is very likely there must be (many) more-and they are very likely to spread even faster (and maybe in different age groups). Of course there must also be other variants-not yet detected. 

Sequencing in NL is going from 500 to 1500 samples per week looking at 98 "spots" on the Covid-19 RNA string (of 29,300 pieces).

The Dutch situation has much similarities with the worldwide one; less old variant, increase of new variants. Also "social pressure" to "reopen the economy" is a factor. That is a mistake if reopening again would be to fast-here in NL elections march 17 are a further complicating factor. 

DJ-It is very likely in NL-and other countries-due to social pressure and politics (that want to claim succes to soon) we will see a repeat of what went wrong earlier only this time with a mix of more dangerous variants. Some of these variants may evade immunity (natural or by vaccination) enough to cause yet another wave. 

The mental burden of such a (fourth-in some countries) wave (being in year 2 of this pandemic) will create much social unrest. 

As always-I hope I am wrong...

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JfprsycKsc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JfprsycKsc ;

-Fever =37,8C/100F but in people with lower BMI and in older people 37,4C/99F may indicate fever. Part of it may be genetic. (DJ-Thyroid problems and other health issues can even complicate defenition of fever further.) In 65+ y/o 37,4C/99F should be considered as reason for self isolation/testing.

-Worldwide over 100 million vaccinations. Israel, US, UK doing good. In EU "slow start" but in South Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand vaccination still has to start...DJ-China also minimum in vaccination, South Africa did get some AZ/O vaccines from India).

-UK did order more vaccines-bad news is they may arrive in 2022...Valneva-French vaccine produced in Scotland (based on dead virus parts) also has to be approved. DJ-For the EU there could be a problem (both in vaccines, PPE etc) on "who is doing what". Central European buying means high quantaties=lower prices...but if they get no results (fast enough) member states have to do it-later on-on their own. Means later delivery at higher costs..

-SA variant in UK-close to Heatrow-airport..so indirect travel link ? Found in random testing, may be spreading in the UK...UK doing extra research for some area's (including London) to see if the SA variant may be spreading further..DJ-Could sewage samples help to find regions with more variants ?

-US experts worried on "a few more mutations could restart the pandemic". Dr. J.C. of the 29,300 "parts" of the Covid19 RNA-string already over 12,000 mutations...So Dr.J.C. believes "there is a limit to mutations"...DJ-Why would there be a limit ? Mutations-"mistakes in reproduction" is always interaction with a host (in this case most of them are humans) so -ad random-in a mutation the virus may pick up some segments that could see the virus more infectious in other species-restarting yet another chain reaction. 

The California variant seems to be following a route much different from the UK one...DJ We have to stop spread of the virus because in this stage each new infection could start other-new-more dangerous variants...If there is one in a billion chance for a very dangerous mutation-again IF-then it is good to realize we may be getting close to that number of infections by now...!

-DJ (again I am not a medical expert at all-just have a big mouth and some brains..) newer variants further away from the "old variant(s)"may evade/ignore immunity against the old variants. Novavax vaccine 95% protecting against "old"variant, 85% against UK variant, 60% against SA variant...(and 49% against the SA variant in HIV+ population...you also have to remember protection is gender and age related. Men have more ACE-2 receptors, older age means immunity less effective.)

-US expert; new variants may mean herd immunity at 80/85% of population via vaccines and/or earlier infection(s) in stead of 60/70%..DJ-some other conclusions; we may need NPI much longer, there will be a need for new vaccinations to boost immunity against them..(And another reminder-we did NOT beat this pandemic by far...based on history "we"ignored how much damage pandemics can do ! Beating this virus/variants may be costing us a few years, not months...)

-Israël 55% of population did get vaccinated once, 20% twice-still high number of new cases...DJ-A lot of UK variants, but also maybe false sense of safety-vaccine needs two/three weeks to create immunity...NPI in Israël is also a "political/elections" issue (with "religious" parties being a key factor for netanyahu to stay out of prison for corruption charges..) DJ-High number of vaccinations PLUS high number of new infections may result in new variants evading vaccinations (better)...

-Japan is working on their own "AnGes" Osaka vaccine-study will be completed "late 2021", do their own testing on "foreign vacines", may approve Moderna in may, AZ/O end of this month. AZ/O will see 90 million doses produced in Japan. Government still wants Tokyo Olympics this summer   ...

-Portugal hard hit due to three factors; 1=relaxing rules for Christmas/New Year-2 did give the UK variant room/time to spread on 3 a population that did not see that many cases in earlier waves (so very limited natural immunity). 

Dr.J.C. ends up with the "bizarre" dence festival in tax-haven Guernsy as a mass spreading event, in Philadelphia teen agers running a for profit vaccination "something" with government approval-also selling private info. (DJ We had some students doing that as well in NL...

DJ-My conclusion from this video could be "we may be in this situation" a "bit longer"...vaccinations much to slow, variants spreading faster...Wonder what the SA variant will do in the UK...There should be "increased immunity" both by natural infection (often by the UK variant) and vaccinations...If the SA variant (with 3 mutations at the "virus link"-the UK variant had just one in the Receptor Binding Domain) would start spreading in the UK that would be "very alarming"..

Also relaxing the rules=more virus spread causing more variants...It is NOT about pressure on hospitals but it may be about "us" humans surviving...pandemics keep being underestimated, history neglected...

DJ-In other news US police using pepperspray against a 9 y/o girl that needed comforting is shocking...At least some of the US police seem to miss basic human instincts...US police urgently needs reforms..because this is beyond sick...

Music; People are Strange-The Doors [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDW_yAwaHnc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDW_yAwaHnc (and they should know...)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2021 at 9:34pm

DJ,

The UK variant in the UK is mutating further. After a main RBD mutation at 501 position new mutations at 484 position make this variant look similar to the SA variant. 

When you look at Israel numbers-with lots of UK variant cases-lots of natural/vaccine immunity and still seeing a lot of new cases this UK/SA "mix" evades immunity on a larger scale. In Brazil there were already stories on large scale reinfections in Manaus from a Brazil variant. But maybe to little testing could explain that-maybe not that many people did have infrctions earlier on...In Portugal high number of UK variant cases but the population there did not had earlier exposure that much to Covid19. 

In the UK there is fear this mutating UK variant may still on a large scale cause reinfections even in vaccinated/natural immunity (even after UK variant) population. This would make vaccines-against newer variants-possibly useless...

AZ/O reports their vaccins slows down spread of the virus. [url]https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3777268[/url] or https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3777268 DJ-That would be very welcome news...the less new infections the less new variants..but vaccinations have to increase faster.

Some "politicians" now still claim going for "natural immunity" is the "only way out"-but that is insanity...When you look at how much damage the old variant-with NPI already did going for "herd immunity" with an explosion of new variants is suïcide...

The number [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; Lots of countries reporting 10,000+ new cases. UK, Israel, Portugal-with many restrictions also still lots of new cases. High numbers also in France, Spain-most likely due to the UK variant...

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zv1wHLH8wts[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zv1wHLH8wts Canada-update part 1....

-Several variants in Canada-some without travel history. Travel restrictions because of spring-break. Canadians going south then importing variants from US. 

-Vaccinations slow in Canada. No vaccines produced in Canada  (due to privatizations)! DJ-Vaccines may help reduce new cases-priority has to be NPI-spread of variants...New variants may be evading natural/vaccine immunity...

-Sequencing also marginal in Canada-as in most countries DJ-even with this pandemic being around over 1 year....unbelievable...variants should not have been a surprise. The more infections=more mutations=more variants...very basic. Why then there was no monitoring-system started ?

-DJ Mental health issues of course do increase. (Good Canada-link for self-treatment...caring, cleaning up, getting rid of old stuff can help.) Long duration may become the biggest burden-on top of knowing this pandemic is the outcome of continuing mismanagement...Talking/sharing helps...Spring, summer is on its way..

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldFRt-i3QzY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldFRt-i3QzY part-2

-Mouthwash-Sao Paulo-Brazil study resulted in Dental Clean moutwash supposed to help against (upper respitory early)infection. The mouthwash is now used/studied in a small village to see if rinse/gurgle does reduce infections...(DJ-Moutwashes are supposed to prevent infections in the mouth, gurgling may help also cleaning the throat-I think most (non-alcohol ) mouthwashes may help against upper respitory infections. This Brazil product may have some extra anti-viral ingrediënts...interesting, easy to use most likely affordable...If it would prevent high healthcare costs governments could/should buy/produce this and distribute it to all who want to use it ! Twice a day ? If it prevents most infections-goes faster then vaccinations-very welcome !)

-In Malaysia they used water as a placebo. Even that helped cleaning oral cavities and decrease infections...In Vietnam moutwash was promoted and that country has remarkable low cases of infections...(Of course in combination with NPI as best as possible-healthy diet etc). 

-In Vietnam hospital patients were put on top of the hospital for sun-light/vitamin D from first cases over 1 year ago...Ventilation is main thing in Vietnam hospitals...Dr.J.C. remembers the TB-garden settings-sunlight, fresh air...(Todays hospitals are closed boxes with Air Conditioning making things worse..) In Vietnam several times per day patients had to rinse/gurgle (with moutwash, or water-point is cleaning up upper respitory system...DJ I believe some countries (India ?) even have a sort of "nose wash"...If it helps great !

-A Montreal-Quebec study on colchicine-used against gout did find it also works against cytokinin storms/over reaction of the immune system. This (short) study on over 4000 high risk Covid19 "likely" patients (lack of testing) was march 2020. Results look very good-maybe up to 50% reduction on severity...but "study may not be seen as scientific enough"still use of anti-infalamatory medications may prove to reduce cases..Colchicine has side effects, may have influence on other medications. To study effects they have to look at sub-groups (diabetes, hypertension etc).

Old cheap welknown medication. Important is start treatment as soon as possible, with medical supervision. Was known to have positive effects in ARDS (Acute Respitory Distress Syndrom)...

-Vitamin D-less sunshine=more need for vitamin D (makes immune system function better). Also available in drops-melting on the tongue.

-Some people "did not feel a thing" after vaccination...maybe not such a good sign...did the vaccine do its job ? Vaccinations normally give some reactions-pain at the point of vaccination is minimum. Your body has to start reactions-so it is okay to feel "less well" for a few days...

In older people vitamin D may help getting the right immune reaction from T-cells. Monocytes may be less effective against infections-but may be activated via vaccination in older people-vitamin D seems to correct that. 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpOjHttIAXQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpOjHttIAXQ ; British scientists say the U.K. coronavirus variant has picked up a new mutation. Melissa Duggan on how the change could be a setback for vaccines.

DJ The mutation is the UK variant "moving towards" the SA and B variants...both vaccination and natural immunity may become less effective. One has to look at the longer time-line. New variants may be on their way even less stopped by vaccine/natural immunity...Part of the answer could be new vaccines-but also we need to get the R0 to ZERO !!!! Not just under 1 "to save the economy" then reopen and keep repeating the insanity only getting worse...We had to have the R0 to 0 strategy from day 1-stop air travel from China over a year ago..."we" did not due to economic considerations and that did get us into this "pandemic swamp"...

Vaccinations may help slowing down this pandemic-most likel will not end it in this year. Other vaccinations/treatments only can provide some help-social distancing may have to do most of it...Ieven if that is hardly possible..)

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gTBITDiarc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gTBITDiarc Sing along with the vaccination song-Horrible Stories

 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2021 at 9:47pm

DJ,

-A look at the numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for february 3. Worldwide the number of new cases/deaths is "relatively" low. When you consider the NPI restrictions, vaccinations etc. the numbers are still far from good. With variants in many places-with present NPI-at a R0 between 1.2 and 1.5 we are moving towards another global health crisis.

-Oxfam is calling for sharing patents on vaccines to increase vaccine production. With the present (lack of) speed less then 10% of the population in countries we keep poor can get vaccinated. With that lack of vaccinations new variants will keep showing up sinking us deeper in this pandemic. 

DJ-Again-this pandemic is worsening. Israël yesterday had almost 9000 new cases-even with its population over 50% vaccinated and high natural immunity. [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/israel-closes-airport-and-points-of-entry-for-extended-period/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/israel-closes-airport-and-points-of-entry-for-extended-period/

From Amsterdam-NL there are FOUR daily flights to Lisbon-Portugal, THREE to Porto, and THREE times per week to Faro...There is still way to much air-travel. Politics keep failing to shut down international (air)travel. In doing so politics is worsening this crisis !

[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/leading-us-expert-says-vaccinating-children-key-to-herd-immunity/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/leading-us-expert-says-vaccinating-children-key-to-herd-immunity/ DJ-In NL our government and CDC/RIVM keeps claiming "Dutch children are different from other children"-It would be safe to reopen elementery schools next week. In the US the CDC has sunken to another depth of insanity; teachers would have to wear a mask over their mask-then going to the classrooms would be safe...It is good teachers have more wisdom then their government-most schools very likely will remain closed...

The total lack of self-reflection by politicians becomes shocking. We need to get the R0 to ZERO !!! But most governments keep "saving the economy" and in that way de facto destroy the economy. With that they further steal the future of the young generation. They already did destroy much of that future in legal corruption towards the fossil fuel maffia. 

(DJ-[url]https://www.debka.com/does-israel-feel-compelled-to-launch-a-strike-at-irans-nuclear-sites-and-if-so-when/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/does-israel-feel-compelled-to-launch-a-strike-at-irans-nuclear-sites-and-if-so-when/ Why not mix a pandemic with a major war ? Are "people self-destructive"? Is that realy a question ?)

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1CLButseKM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1CLButseKM 

-AstraZeneca/Oxford AZ/O vaccine providing a lot of protection after first vaccine. DJ-Vaccines are far from perfect but it is bringing us at least a bit closer to getting out of this pandemic. Insane competition between for profit vaccine producers and non-profit global producers is not helping. Also cold-war mentality is not helping. Sputnik-5 is much cheaper then Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna and-Lancet-may be just as good. The Sputnik-5 vaccine may see production not only in Russia but also Turkey, India and there are now talks with a German company. In the past there were talks between AZ/O and the scientists behind Sputnik-5-both are adeno-vector vaccines..If we want to get out of this pandemic we need billions of vaccines. The only way to get there is international cooperation with a limited number of cheap, easy to use, effective vaccines. AZ/O will be produced in (over) 30 countries-from India to Brazil, Mexico, UK...

Vaccines and strict NPI (stop travel !!!) can get us out of this major crisis. And we need to get out of this crisis NOW !!! Further worsening-with more variants-can mean we are in the worst kind of a pandemic. In that scenario some "bubles" of healthy, vaccinated people could survive while billions of people could die...

-[url]https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3777268[/url] or https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3777268 After first AZ/O vaccination transmission of the virus decreases 67%. (After three weeks-vaccine has to create immunity). Protected 76% for 90 days against infection-then second vaccine is needed to boost immunity again...

DJ-We have to decrease virus spread and with that new variants...Those new variants may make this pandemic "much harder/impossible" to control. At a certain number of cases-in combination with time-new variants will be coming up much faster then vaccines can be created to deal with them...Already there are indications (a.o. from Brazil, Israel ) vaccines may be evaded by present (mutating) variants...Somehow the urgency is not seen by most governments to get virusspread down as fast as possible...

With strict NPI and vaccines we can get this pandemic under control, without strict NPI and vaccines we may be "much further away/lost"...

-For the AZ/O vaccine time gap of 6 weeks gives just around 55% protection-12 weeks between vaccinations increases protection to over 82,4%. (DJ-And those 12 weeks=84 days-to 90 days are welcome to give as many others at least a first vaccination...this is getting urgent !)

-This study was in age group 18-55, other studies indicate 55+ also will see almost as good results...(DJ-And there are limited options...)

DJ-It already is a gigantic struggle to get most people some basic income while the economy is less then 50%...also spending billions on healthcare and vaccines. There are time limits for that...So use the time to the optimum to make the best of it..

Music-Rock the Boat-Hues Corporation 1974 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfBwsG8ubFw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfBwsG8ubFw 




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 04 2021 at 10:40pm

DJ,

A look at numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ only has some news when you think of restrictions already in place. Countries like France, Germany, UK, Portugal, NL already have many restrictions but still do see way to many cases...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/ in "latest news" has an overload of info...Yesterday about bats in Nigeria-with all kind of virusses, being eaten. In SA they did discover lots of mutations-most of them did not grow into a major problem-but a reminder of the many, many variants yet not detected. Also the risks for new pandemics...

Dr.John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=au6FKi8aAsA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=au6FKi8aAsA on the point of vitamin D protecting against a lot of damage from Covid19 (and its growing family...). Why are governments not more pro-active ? 

DJ-This pandemic is man-made. The idea of going for "herd-immunity" was insane from the start. But still seems to be in to many decission-makers heads...Big Pharma mafia did see big profits...via testing and vaccines. 

Maybe the fundamentel problem is Big Pharma dominating CDC/WHO and "advising" governments to push "zillions" of tax money towards them...while only making matters worse...

We did have to stop infections, spreading the virus-we did not. By that we created-with increasing the numbers-an increasing number of variants...Vaccines may slow down the spread but also "push" some variants that evade vaccination (and maybe even testing..)

After the "explosion of cases" we now have to deal with an explosion of variants...most of them under the radar because we do not have enough sequencing capacity worldwide to even "read" 1% of the global new infections...Also most new variants will be in places where there is not even enough testing capacity...So "low tested and reported cases"=no high priority..

"You can't fix stupid"-Well there are levels of stupidity...Clever people may make clever mistakes..

DJ-We are running behind the facts. Vaccines can and will slow down infections but not enough-both in time and in "covering variants". Even with worldwide 10 million vaccinations-on a global population of 7,843,800,000+ it will take TWO years to get everyone vaccinated-and then what ? Even with 90% protection against new variants the remaining 10% still is a major problem-also creating further variants...

The only effective strategy is minimal mobility for several years...also helping to deal with the growing climate crisis. The perspective of "long term social distancing" calls for "social bubbles" to live at least a "human live". If we realy want to avoid a next pandemic we have to stop eating meat. We can create meat-substitutes to still get in the nutrients we need...

To get to that point from the present-destructive-economy-is "a giant leap for mankind". But may help us to get out of the road to self-destruction by energy-addiction, greed based inequality destroying democracy. 

WE have to change to survive ! [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/02/this-is-why-they-attack-him-putin-explains-why-we-need-new-economic-policies.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/02/this-is-why-they-attack-him-putin-explains-why-we-need-new-economic-policies.html 

[url]https://southfront.org/whitewashing-of-al-qaeda/[/url] or https://southfront.org/whitewashing-of-al-qaeda/ Is IS already integrated in NATO ? US/Israel are working with IS and other terrorists...

Music; Changes David Bowie [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pl3vxEudif8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pl3vxEudif8 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 05 2021 at 8:47am

Yes, I like the idea of limited mobility.  I told a friend near the beginning of the pandemic that I didn't think the global economy as we are participating currently was sustainable, and that this pandemic may actually be a blessing in disguise to take us to something more sustainable, if we chose to go that way.  If not, I predict a long, slow death of our way of life, via global climate change or a "slate-wiper" pandemic the likes of which they make disaster movies from.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 05 2021 at 9:54pm

ViQueen24-You did get my message in just a few sentences...great !

DJ-One of the growing concerns in this pandemic has to be the duration...When you look at the Spanish Flu of 1918-1920 one could claim it took 1,5 years for "the main pandemic". So if you would like to compare that crisis to the present one vaccines may give "a way out" this year...with some luck duration of this pandemic may be also around 1,5 to 2 years...

If you go deeper in history pandemics "moved slower"-less (fast) mobility did mean illness spread via foot, horse, boat..Without mobility there can not be a pandemic. 

Carbon20 had a great link to BMJ on responsibility of governments for this pandemic. There are many aspects to discuss. One of them has to be how to "make the law-makers responsible for their (in)action". If the "top" is failing, and the legal process can not correct those faillures history tells us how corrections then work. The US did see that in 1776, France in 1789, Russia in 1917 (we in NL in a certain way already in 1568..).

If vaccines are supposed to get us out of this pandemic-with a global population of 7,8 billion (7,800,000,000 !!!) Even two months of 100 million vaccinations per day for a first vaccination may not be fast enough to deal with variants exploding...

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_EQbDHQN88[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_EQbDHQN88 reviewing Sputnik-5. What he did not know was Russia was working a.o. with India, Turkey, now talks with Germany, I believe Vietnam on mass production of that-effective-vaccine. He does mention AstraZeneca/Oxford team working with [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamaleya_Research_Institute_of_Epidemiology_and_Microbiology[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamaleya_Research_Institute_of_Epidemiology_and_Microbiology (founded in 1891). 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_V_COVID-19_vaccine[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_V_COVID-19_vaccine 

Since we failed to get this pandemic under control (by NPI) in the early stages we now have to fall back to Plan-B mass vaccinations-worldwide-unseen in history at this level and speed. Because this pandemic is becoming "a race" against variants making immunity (by earlier infection or vaccination) less/not effective. 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ is showing again an increase of (global) cases-this time-and that is pure horror-in countries already WITH large scale NPI !!!!!

NL will get over 1 million cases-on a population of almost 17,5 million. Most countries we keep poor do not have testing capacity-forget about sequencing-it would be welcome if some rich countries would do more on that. Including animal (minks, cats) (re)-infections we may be getting close to a billion infections...I would LOVE to believe vaccinations will get us out of this crisis this year...

But this global pandemic disaster is not top-priority for politics...war is. This pandemic is part of climate collapse, linked to the 6th mass extinction allready going on-but "politics" fail to see it that way...

I want to stay "realistic-optimistic"-not go for baseless "hopium"...and finding these vaccines that fast is gigantic ! When you think on what may have gone wrong we could be in a much worse situation. Going for "herd immunity" without any restrictions till now may have brought is not over 100 million cases but over 100 million deaths...society collapse...

The best option-direct early global action-would have prevented this pandemic. So we are "somewhere in between" these two extremes. (In my opinion much to close to the "bad-scenario" due to little action to late). 

I think-(but who am I ?)-mass vaccinations may at least buy us some time. The present vaccines are at least more practical and affordable then the first (Pfizer, Moderna-expensive deep freeze) vaccines. With India producing (over) 60% of the global vaccines-and a.o. in the UK, Germany (no doubt Russia, China) increasing production-capacity within months there will be more vaccines then humans on this planet...Very likely also easy to use (as a drink ? Inhaler ? Plaster with micro-needles ?) since getting those vaccines into the people (without creating a mass-spread event) remains a challange...

Variants will be increasing-due to the high number of infections. But in time Covid19 will develop towards a "common cold". 

The point is the present known variants are "far from a common cold"...The time between Covid-"common cold" and the present can still bring massive numbers of new cases, suffering...Wrong decisions can still cause healthcare to collapse on a larger (global) scale...

To deal with this pandemic WE have to deal with the underlying problems ! From family-planning (including a hard discussion on who is responsible for the next generation ? Are the "right people" having the "right number of children"? Should we go for a "global (but less brutal) "one-child policy"?) to "freedom" if that freedom is not linked to responsibility. 

If I can travel around the globe because I come from a rich-white-country-why do we deny the right to travel to people from countries we keep poor ? How racist is the "global world order" ? Did we learn anything from a past of slavery and colonialism ? Do we realy believe in "democracy" on a global scale if that means "poor people"want more from "our cake" ?

Are we willing to accept the see ourselves as "stealer-nations"-not as an empty gesture but as an attempt to change ? Because we have to stop "eating this planet". We have to stop stealing from not only the "poor" countries but also stealing from next generations !

Under this pandemic there is "a global insanity" seeking for a cure ! We have to fix stupid !

Music-Golden Earrings first (Dutch) hit from 1968 "Dong Dong Diki Diki Dong" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktI1iAqXxuc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktI1iAqXxuc  DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Earring[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Earring  This is one of the oldest rock-groups in the world. They started in 1961-had the same musicians since 1971...now have to end it due to one of the founders has ALS...

PS-We may get some extreme winter-weather unseen for decades in NL-with lots of snow and cold...Covid19 testing/vaccination stopped for several days...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 06 2021 at 8:58am

"Hopium".  I like that.  I'm going to steal it from you!  My new favorite word!

I am the DZ Queen, and I approve this message.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 06 2021 at 11:00pm

ViQueen24-I did get "hopium"-word from [url]https://guymcpherson.com/[/url] or https://guymcpherson.com/ and the climate "change" discussion. (I do not like the word "change" if "collapse" is meant...). Hope is good; false hope can be destructive...because you do not take the action needed.  In this pandemic the major job-for us- "the people" is trying to stay informed and think. We can wear masks, social distance, groceries delivered etc. and that can stop a lot of the problems but not all of it...

By this forum people can give a "civil duty" words; inform people on their views. There is no absolute truth-also in this pandemic-but most of us agree this virus is a serious danger. 

DJ,

The numbers; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; We did get over 1 million tested/reported cases in NL. There is a tendency for increasing numbers in this part of Europe linked to the UK variant with a R0 of between 1,25 and 1,30. To deal with that even stricter rules would be needed...like the UK did. But even there still around 20,000 new cases per day.

Due to extreme winter weather there will be hardly any testing or vaccinating in NL-so "a decrease of tested and reported cases". There is also discussion on parliamentery elections march 17. They want to spread those elections over 3 days..but may have to postpone it..or elections by mail...

Dr.John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urQUM81lq-g[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urQUM81lq-g ;

-Dr.J.C. (looking at limited our world in data numbers) decrease of cases in UK, US, Canada, Australia...but these countries all have their own story. UK did see close to 70,000 cases per day early january-now around 20,000-drop of 70%. UK R0=0.9 (with a lot of restrictions-but keeping the UK variant numbers down)

-France-UK variant 14% of cases  (week before 5 or 6%)- UK variant increases 60% per week...(DJ-based on models the Dutch CDC RIVM puts the NL UK variant numbers at over 66% ! So there may be some delays in the French numbers ?) Government in France discussing (even) further restrictions (they already have a curfew from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. etc.)

-US; cases down vaccines up (close to 40 million !!!-DJ-still NPI has to stop variants, vaccines will have an effect on new infections in march..). Dr.J.C. first 12 days after vaccination UK data suggests vaccination NOT offering any protection-immune reaction starts after that to be effective...! DJ-Basic reason for US cases going down is a "mega-mix"; NO christmas/New Year-like events, politics calmed down, less travel, people protecting themselves better (I think communications on hospitals running out of capacity did alarm a lot of people...good communications are essential !!!). DJ I am political; biden takes this pandemic much more serious that trump did...

Washington State University-Seatlle; If people return to "normal" (=less NPI, masks, increase travel) US will be at 654,000 deaths by may 1. Variants will start spreading, showing up in march, april numbers (DJ The old variant in the US very likely has a R0 of <1, problem is in the new variants-even in very low numbers having a R0 >1 (< smaller, > larger)...

US did increase sequencing DJ-but sequencing was at such a low level (0,3% of all cases) it will take months to get that up to getting enough data to see how "mutations go"... (DJ-In a lot of countries "sequencing"means looking at up to 100 positions of the 29,300 position this Covid-19 RNA virus has...so that kind of sequencing still me miss a lot of mutations.)

US "herd immunity" could be 38% may 1 for the US. Variants need more restrictions, some US states now go for less restrictions...Vaccination offers protection after 12 days (in older people may take 3 weeks !!!). So false sense of security (shortly) after vaccination is a risk factor (we also did see this in Israel..a few percent of just vaccinated people did show infections-may have been in early stages of infection before getting vaccinated, or did get infected after vaccination...In NL vaccination itself sometimes turns out into a potential mass spreading event. Since the deep-freeze Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is distributed from central locations old people-often from months self-isolation-have to stand in line to get vaccinated...insane !!!)

US to many people NOT being vaccinated could start a new wave of infections coming (2021-2022) winter...Herd immunity may be 80/85% (+?) with the new variants...US now doing over 1 million vaccinations per day-but US population is 331 million !

-DJ-Dr.J.C. is-in my opinion-realistic, this pandemic will be around-in many ways-the coming 2 to 3 years. Even if we can vaccinate to herd immunity we still need a lot of restrictions (on mass gathering, travel etc.) DJ-Most people have brains ! They do whatever they can to reduce risks ! Working from home may become more normal. Air travel should decrease (DJ-has to almost stop !!) anyway (for climate reasons)..a lot of people do want to avoid air travel, cruise ships etc. This pandemic will bring a global shift in how we behave...large overcrowded festivals etc will become less accepted..even less people smoking ? People trying to boost their health via supplements, vitamin D, going on a bike..(bicycle not a motorbike..) demanding clear air !

DJ-I was hoping for more info on the UK variant mutating..Dr.J.C. mentioned it but did not go any further...may be there is not enough data ? If there is data on UK variant moving towards the SA variant via some extra mutations the UK or DK (Denmark) do the sequencing to find out...

Also vaccinations may start effecting variants-will decrease the spread of some variants (because of better protection against it) but could "open doors" for other variants (vaccines less protecting there..)

South part of the globe is moving towards winter-should start vaccinations but are "slow"...

Music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNj0YuOlPEY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNj0YuOlPEY Teach Me Tiger, April Stevens 1959 just a crazy number almost 62 years old !



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2021 at 3:17am

DJ,

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/905710-discussion-my-crystal-ball[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/905710-discussion-my-crystal-ball this discussion "tends to the conclusion" we may be in this pandemic for the coming years...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 and 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01 

DJ-The number of variants infections are growing fast worldwide. The R0 for the old variant is below 1 (<1) so that "starter variant" is decreasing. Limited reporting on the UK variant picking up the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#E484K[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#E484K mutation. DJ Monoclonal and serum-derived antibodies are reported to be from 10 to 60 times less effective in neutralizing virus bearing the E484K mutation.[58][59] On 2 February 2021, medical scientists in the United Kingdom reported the detection of E484K in 11 samples (out of 214,000 samples), a mutation that may compromise current vaccine effectiveness

So what we do know is new variants may be stopped less by immunisations (natural or by vaccine). With also most of the world far from herd-immunity and vaccinations-for now-simply not fast enough to have a global impact. 

-Vaccinations itself may "select" variants. Slow down those variants vaccinations are most effective at-but increase variant-spread less covered by vaccinations. If a vaccine protects 90/95% against the "old variant" but 60% for some new variants still 40% if the vaccinated may catch a new variant infection...

-In countries we keep poor testing is a problem. Variants in Africa most likely have been missed with already TWO variants that did get discovered (SA and Nigeria). Most of the problem is not yet seen...

-Economic pressure and total lack of realism in politics-we CAN NOT GO BACK !!! to the old "ab-normal'! may see reopening-again to soon. The illusion air-travel is "safe" or "needed" will very likely keep spreading new variants...

-Bad MSM communications, false sense of safety due to vaccination (and taking to much risks to soon) and "economic pressure" are very likely to undermine vaccine effectivity...To many people still may show infections after first vaccination (by being infected prior to vaccination-the vaccination-event itself or after the vaccination). Also a lack of understanding and willingness to get vaccinated may be a major problem for getting herdimmunity...

-NPI offer the best protection but has a high price on mental health for almost all...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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