scenario's

"UK cases this august 30 times higher then august 2020...DJ-AGAIN !!!! The basic point I do not see from Dr.J.C. is that if you want the R0 under 1 you need both vaccines AND restrictions ! The dominant policy seems to be increase vaccines-booster vaccines to LIFT restrictions and with new variants that is simply asking for worsening of this pandemic.... "

The problem is that governments run the risk of serious civil disobedience if they keep insisting on restrictions. People have to be able to earn a living and to have a life. Did you see the very short bit on Dr John Campbell's channel last week where he quoted someone from government saying that they had over-touted vaccines as the golden bullet at the start of all this? That they had held them up as the way out of Covid when what they should have done was to say that they were part of the arsenal against Covid? The person said that they were paying for that mistake now but it was done in good faith to encourage everyone to get vaccinated. 

Of course they need a more measured approach. The virtual disappearance of flu last year shows how a combination of activities such as not going to work when you are sick (and not masking the symptoms with medication), frequent handwashing, general mindfulness about how you could be spreading germs, keeping your distance from vulnerable people and wearing a mask have worked together to stop it dead in it's tracks. Last winter, here in NZ, only 6 cases of flu were reported. 

The other thing of interest that I finally heard Dr Campbell admit (which I've heard said by other doctors as well) was that many of the people who died in the first wave of Covid were people who would have died anyway in the following year or two, they included the very elderly, the very frail, people with co-morbidities and fatal illnesses, and all that Covid did was to bring their death forward by a few months. We seem to have developed a mentality that death can and should be delayed at all costs and we forget that people die all the time and that's just part of life.  

KiwiMum-There will be restrictions/lockdowns within a few months...simply because vaccines without restrictions with new variants will keep spreading. Israel may be a good indicator. 

Communications are essential. So far in this pandemic communications have been a total disaster. The main reason for lifting of restrictions were "save the economy"-like. Some experts claim a 10 week/3 month "good" lockdown could as good as end this pandemic...now. With newer variants (with higher R0/spread) more, better vaccines and even longer restrictions would be needed...

By not going for restrictions now governments are waiting for ICU/hospital crises-public begging for restrictions. Here in NL ICU-staff is one major problem...One university hospital (Groningen) was hoping to have six extra ICU beds but-due to staff problems did have to close 3 ICU beds...

Another problem in NL-and in many other places-is very serious ill patients looking for help but claiming there is no Covid...potential mass spreaders...refusing even testing with low oxygen in their blood...(Most likely hospitals may treat them as Covid-cases without telling the patient/family they are going that way...damage control.)

Yes-we are getting close to 4,5 million "official" Covid deaths...proberbly around 1 million of them would have died from flu if there was a "normal flu season" this year/last year...For the statistics these people died from Covid. It is how statistics work...

In my view the most important, effective, tool keeping numbers down was in restrictions. Summer 2020 did see cases going down-if we had more restrictions/testing then maybe the pandemic could have been over...But "saving the economy in 2020" did see travel, lifting of restrictions to early...and we are in that pattern still...wave after wave...And somehow people-a lot of them-think this is wisdom...

ViQueen24-I think most "strange"diseases in animals (birds, deer, etc) most likely are NOT related to the pandemic in humans. And it is good there is a decrease of sick bird cases...The problem is diseases that widespread in human hosts, with so far most limited, controlable, spread in non humans sooner or later WILL spill over into non-human hosts...

There are proberbly statistical models for calculating the risks. Coronavirus diseases in animals have been a major problem most likely for centuries. (Science here started after 1930...). The "One Health" idea is looking at health as a matter of interest in ALL species...(It may even include plant diseases effecting humans...). 

At this moment-and it has been that way proberbly over 1 year now-daily number of people spreading the virus may be 10 million+. Most non-humans seem not to be that easy to infect..pets show up sometimes getting infected-but so far they hardly get ill themselves and the idea is they do not spread the virus...

Very limited US info on deer; 1 testing positive for SARS-2 in 2019 now sometimes over 60% of samples taken indicate SARS-2/Covid19 antibodies - with an extra test to exclude other known coronavirusses spreading in deer-is a big questionmark ? What is happening here ? 

Birds can catch coronavirusses as well...most likely have been in contact with SARS-2/Covid19...but if it does not infect them there will be no antibodies...

Still we have to increase monitoring-in my opinion-on spread of SARS-2/Covid19 in non-human hosts. Testing/sequencing capacity however is allready overstretched with human cases...This means we may detect non-human cases in a later stage...when animals start getting ill. Spread is allready going on..

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

Global new cases 656,550-deaths 10,462...Highest number of cases has been over 900,000 in a day...deaths around 17,500 in a day...so "both numbers still limited"...And yes testing positive-if you are vaccinated-may result in less health issues. Some countries want to switch from counting positive tests to hospital admissions as a basis for restrictions. 

An increase of cases however is an increase of spread. With vaccine (and natural) immunity waning over time the sooner you act the better. If you go for restrictions when hospitals are getting full you are acting to late...

Trends; Israel cases +22%, deaths +32% (133 last week 176 this week on a population of 9,3 million). Israel did see much higher number of deaths...but with a high level of (booster) vaccinations these numbers simply indicate more restrictions are needed to get numbers down !

And NO "living with the virus" is not an alternative-because it will result in variants doing even worse !

UK-basicly same story...high level of vaccines...not enough restrictions= cases +14%, deaths +9%...NL cases +4%, deaths +12 %, Canada cases +29%, deaths +261% indicate less restrictions because of a high level of vaccinations is not working !

The US has limited vaccinations, restrictions...a high level of spread so cases +8%, deaths +13% may sound less alarming. But if Delta is allready more widespread and still going up it should be a major worry...

Vietnam is going for massive restrictions-with very limited vaccinations...still cases going up +17%, deaths +9%. Thailand may be allready doing better cases -11%...deaths still +31% (influx into hospitals may be starting to go down...It may take several days between infection and more severe disease...Allthough Delta sometimes may see people in hospital only a few days after infection in very limited numbers...).

Again-Delta variant is dominant worldwide. R0 between 5 and 8=vaccinations + restrictions to get R0 under 1 ! (And we are not doing that !)

To compare the present pandemic crisis with another crisis [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/u-s-leaves-behind-85-billion-in-military-weapons-and-equipment-all-grabbed-by-taliban-in-afghanistan[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/u-s-leaves-behind-85-billion-in-military-weapons-and-equipment-all-grabbed-by-taliban-in-afghanistan ; HT has a lot of non-sense, his own ideas...but the basic info is the taliban may have access to as good as ALL US military communications, tech-info on drones, able to make passes giving taliban access to US military bases worldwide etc. The taliban themselves may not have the knowledge (via training) to use it...others (Russia-Iran-China) do have that intel....See also [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/taliban-captures-us-military-biometric-devices[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/taliban-captures-us-military-biometric-devices (lots of high tech, secret material did get in the wrong hands...the taliban may now have one of the most modern armies in the region...with US weapons not meant for them !)

This pandemic will worsen as long as we do not stop the spread. Opening up because 50%+ of the over 18 y/o is vaccinated-opening schools, is totally insane ! What are you waiting for ? 

We are pushing for ADE ! [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement ...

By the way I do NOT like both [url]https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/[/url] or https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/  and [url]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/[/url] or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ There is to much seismic activity, driven by climate change/reduction of land ice, methane release....not good !

-Flutrackers latest posts ; 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922455-dr-scott-gottlieb-on-face-the-nation-says-cases-are-peaking-in-the-south-very-hard-weeks-ahead[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922455-dr-scott-gottlieb-on-face-the-nation-says-cases-are-peaking-in-the-south-very-hard-weeks-ahead ; if you look across different age categories in Florida, every age category shows a declining number of cases day over day, except for school age kids, kids ages six to 19. That's the only category that's still expanding and expanding very quickly, because what's happening is they're opening schools earlier in the south. Schools opened earlier in the south against the backdrop of still a lot of prevalence. And the infection is getting into schools and it's proving to be hard to control schools. Delta is a very contagious variant. And so I think that this is a harbinger of the challenges that we're going to face nationally. As schools reopen, the schools could become focal points of community transmission and can become environments that aren't safe for children if we can't control very large outbreaks from happening in those settings...

DJ Dr.S.G stating R0 in south US is under 1-in general cases would be going down...I do not know why this Dr. believes cases will keep going down if cases in children go up and not enough (grand) parents, familymembers did get vaccinated...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/922454-let-s-stop-pretending-about-the-covid-19-vaccines[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/922454-let-s-stop-pretending-about-the-covid-19-vaccines ; As a family physician, I spend my days dispensing advice. I mean, there’s the occasional cast, skin biopsy, or shot, but most of my patients are seeing me for medical counsel. Never have I been asked about one subject so much as the Covid-19 vaccines, and never have I seen so much doubt and confusion among a group of smart, well-educated people. Interpreting the reality of the effectiveness of these vaccines is complicated: it is waning with time, weakened against delta, unknown when coupled with prior infection, and may not be improved with a booster – but there is new, often murky, data emerging every day. Speaking the truth about the vaccines, however, should not be that hard. We have to be willing to adapt to new data, even when it does not fit neatly into prior messaging.

That’s where our institutions went astray...

DJ-As a non-expert-on the short term vaccines are doing very, very good-still close to 90% protection against severe disease for most. But when you dive deeper there are lots of things to say...You are much better of if 60%+ of community (18 y/o+) has been vaccinated then when only 20% of that group did get vaccinated... The slow speed of vaccinations is increasing the risk for variants getting more evasive...Worldwide we may see 50% of adults being fully vaccinated somewhere in 2024...that is simply much to slow ! 

A discussion on booster vaccines-or export of vaccines is the wrong discussion-we simply need MORE vaccines ! (And the west may not like it-China will be producing/exporting most of them-maybe not as effective but affordable ! More likely able to go for booster vaccines every 6 months or so...) . Excluding Non Pharma Interventions is also wrong. If the Delta R0 is between 5 and 8 vaccines maybe reduce it with 2 points (as example-so R0 ends up between 3 and 6) but then reopening everything INCREASES the R0 more...maybe 3-4 points...Non Pharma Interventions look like much more effective then vaccines...but that news does not fit in the "vaccinate out of a pandemic"-story...(rather blame first China/CCP then the unvaccinated...). 

Via a link to [url]https://anthraxvaccine.blogspot.com/2021/08/are-fda-and-pfizer-biontech-scamming-us.html[/url] or https://anthraxvaccine.blogspot.com/2021/08/are-fda-and-pfizer-biontech-scamming-us.html ; 

Under EUAs, the government pays for the product and the manufacturer has NO liability, unless you can prove willful misconduct AND the DHHS Secretary allows you to sue.  That has never happened.

But once the product (Pfizer's vaccine, today) is licensed, the liability shield under EUA disappears.  Unless there has a been a secret agreement regarding liability after approval, which is probably not legal, Pfizer will be liable for all injuries sustained by the licensed vacine.  And Pfizer's vaccine seems to be causing a record number of injuries and deaths, based on the VAERS data.

The FDA approval letter, issued today, was unusual.  It stated that current bottles of vaccine, which are not branded with the "Comirnaty" brand name, are still authorized, not approved.  Only newer bottles with "Comirnaty" labels will be approved, licensed product.

What that means is that people cannot be mandated to receive vaccine from the old bottles.  But if they do accept the non-brand vaccine, they cannot sue if injured.

If they receive the branded vaccine and are injured, they can be mandated to take it, but they can also sue the company for damages.

DJ EUA=Emergency Use Authorization...In some countries most likely the State/Country takes responsibility for vaccine safety. (Wich would be part of the talks on what prize to pay for "commercial" vaccines...Non-commercial vaccines may have a different story. Most likely China soon will be the main player here...and China may be even willing to take some responsibilities for vaccine safety...).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922422-britain-reports-174-covid-19-deaths-highest-since-march-12[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922422-britain-reports-174-covid-19-deaths-highest-since-march-12 ; With 88 per cent of the adult population receiving a first vaccine and 77 per cent receiving both doses, Britain lifted nearly all its restrictions in mid-July, allowing people to socialize, travel and return to work in offices.

While many people are still wearing masks and working from home, daily infection rates have started to rise. Daily case numbers in the last seven days are up 13.5 per cent on the week before.

On Monday, there were 31,914 new infections reported and 40 deaths.Britain has now reported 705 deaths in the last week, up 8.8 per cent...

DJ Vaccines can not stop Delta ! You also need restrictions ! NPI may be much more effective then vaccines are !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922414-millions-of-africans-lack-basic-means-to-prevent-covid-19-transmission-research-finds[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922414-millions-of-africans-lack-basic-means-to-prevent-covid-19-transmission-research-finds ; Millions of Africans are at risk of contracting COVID-19 due to a lack of the most basic public health tools to protect themselves, including the essentials of soap and water.

These measures, known as non-pharmacological public health interventions (NPIs), and including physical distancing or isolation at home to prevent transmission, are among the simplest and least expensive methods to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

Yet huge numbers of Africa’s roughly 1.4 billion people do not have access to these tools, researchers said.

DJ Since there is sometimes NO testing="NO cases" Africans are-again-ignored...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-ab/nepal-aa/922413-nepal-influenza-cases-rising-amid-covid-19-pandemic[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-ab/nepal-aa/922413-nepal-influenza-cases-rising-amid-covid-19-pandemic ; Last week, a man in his early 30s reached the Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital with Covid-19-like symptoms. He told the doctors that he suspected he might have been infected with the coronavirus even though his test results had come negative.

“Since his Covid test was negative, we recommend the patient get an influenza test. It was confirmed he had contracted influenza,” Dr Sher Bahadur Pun, chief of the Clinical Research Unit at the hospital, told the Post.

Pun says there has been a rise in the number of patients visiting the hospital who are infected with influenza A and B virus.

“It’s not just Covid-19 cases we have to worry about at the moment. Influenza patients are also increasing in recent times,” Pun said.

According to the World Health Organisation’s Global Influenza Surveillance, over 240 influenza cases have been reported in Nepal in the first and second weeks of August. Cases of influenza B infections have shot up significantly since the second week of August...
DJ Flu cases very likely soon will go up in much more places...(could become a "horror-mix" of people catching one virus-then less protection against the other virus...flu-virusses and corona-virusses are "two different beasts" just as likely to mix as an ant with an elephant !) 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/922412-pnas-research-intensity-and-frequency-of-extreme-novel-epidemics[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/922412-pnas-research-intensity-and-frequency-of-extreme-novel-epidemics ; Based on my personal experiences, along with a strong interest in historical plagues and epidemics, I was already convinced that the growing threat of emerging infectious diseases - and the occasional pandemic - would play a large role in the history of the 21st century.

-

Using math skills far above my pay grade, researchers at these three universities calculated that the risks of seeing another COVID-level pandemic in any given year is roughly 2% . . . and suggest that rate may increase 3-fold over the next few decades.

DJ-Interesting read ! One of the biggest dangers is ignoring danger...In combination with wars, climate collapse "we may not make it to 2100"...but that should translate into action to decrease risks ! Solve problems ! Make a better world ! Face the problems !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/h5n8-studies-academia/922405-risk-assessment-for-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-a-h5n6-h5n8-clade-2-3-4-4-viruses[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/h5n8-studies-academia/922405-risk-assessment-for-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-a-h5n6-h5n8-clade-2-3-4-4-viruses ;

Abstract

The numerous global outbreaks and continuous reassortments of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N6/H5N8) clade 2.3.4.4 viruses in birds pose a major risk to the public health. 

We investigated the tropism and innate host responses of 5 recent HPAI A(H5N6/H5N8) avian isolates of clades 2.3.4.4b, e, and h in human airway organoids and primary human alveolar epithelial cells. 

The HPAI A(H5N6/H5N8) avian isolates replicated productively but with lower competence than the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, HPAI A(H5N1), and HPAI A(H5N6) isolates from humans in both or either models. 

They showed differential cellular tropism in human airway organoids; some infected all 4 major epithelial cell types: ciliated cells, club cells, goblet cells, and basal cells. 

Our results suggest zoonotic potential but low transmissibility of the HPAI A(H5N6/H5N8) avian isolates among humans. 

These viruses induced low levels of proinflammatory cytokines/chemokines, which are unlikely to contribute to the pathogenesis of severe disease...
DJ These findings indicate limited risks for some new "Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza" types...still H5N6 seems to be increasing in China but-so far-from birds into humans...

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knFLwOnoo0M[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knFLwOnoo0M on the FDA approval for Pfizer making mandatory vaccines-acceptence-of this vaccine more likely. 

Will now be marketed as Comirnaty (koe-mir’-na-tee) for the prevention of COVID-19 disease in individuals 16 years of age and older Continues to be available under emergency use authorization (EUA), 12 to 15s and for a third dose in immunocompromise

DJ Mandatory vaccinations may NOT be the way to get the highest level of community vaccinated. In the UK, NL, Israel vaccination-level is (much) higher then in the US without mandatory vaccinations !

Data demonstrate increased risks, particularly within the seven days following the second dose The observed risk is higher among males under 40 years of age compared to females and older males 

Risk is highest in males 12 through 17 years of age Short-term follow-up suggest that most individuals have had resolution of symptoms 

Some individuals required intensive care support Information is not yet available about potential long-term health outcomes FDA and CDC, monitoring systems in place for early detection

DJ Vaccination=medical intervention=some risk ! Good communication and good action on post vaccination health issues will increase number of people willing to get vaccinated ! UK, NL, Israel have good basic healthcare, a social income security system...you will not get without an income, end up bankrupt, easily in these countries if there are complications from vaccinations. In a "normal" year around 1 million US households face bankruptcy over medical costs...If there are complications after vaccinations in the US there is a much larger chance of ending up homeless and on the street...

It would be more then welcome if the US went for better (no-profit) public healthcare and a basic income (=housing) system for all. Take away the reasons why a lot of people may not take the (risks of) vaccines in stead of a blame-game ! 

In NL there is also the fear of needles in some groups..we are trying to find solutions for that-take those issues serious ! (You can now get company if you are in panic because of getting a vaccine...someone you trust. Get the vaccine in a more isolated location...less public.)

Music; Heal The World-make it a better place ! - Michael Jackson [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWf-eARnf6U[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWf-eARnf6U  (DJ-The person Michael Jackson may have made wrong choices...this song is still woth listening !)

DJ, 

Two other international "events" may give a picture of "how the world" is dealing with this pandemic;

Afghanistan [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/08/further-us-hostility-against-the-taliban-is-not-in-its-best-interest.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/08/further-us-hostility-against-the-taliban-is-not-in-its-best-interest.html  The goal of this war may have been stopping Russia-Iran-China cooperation and profit for M.I.C. shareholders. The attacks on Kabul airport were done with US explosives...[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/marines-killed-in-kabul-airport-explosions-were-killed-by-u-s-made-c4-and-semtex-left-behind-by-us-forces-during-withdrawal[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/marines-killed-in-kabul-airport-explosions-were-killed-by-u-s-made-c4-and-semtex-left-behind-by-us-forces-during-withdrawal 

and "Climate Change" (collapse is change...) [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/08/is-the-ipcc-creating-false-perceptions-again.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/08/is-the-ipcc-creating-false-perceptions-again.html playing with numbers to "save the economy"....

Maybe the most positive news may be [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-chairman-of-tokyo-medical-association-tells-doctors-to-prescribe-ivermectin-for-covid-treatment[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-chairman-of-tokyo-medical-association-tells-doctors-to-prescribe-ivermectin-for-covid-treatment - If Ivermectin was very succesfull in treating Covid19/SARS-2 patients it would have been used more often...However if hospitals are overloaded, oxygen is running out you at least may try other means if the alternative is hundreds of deaths per day in Japan...

Trust is needed if governments want people to take vaccines, follow rules. And that trust may be disappearing fast with schools reopening children getting ill in high numbers..."Leaders" unable to learn anything...

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; 713,217 new cases were reported...Those cases are "positive tests" with limited numbers of testing and 18/20 months into this pandemic...10,770 deaths reported in just one day...Global trends cases -0,8% deaths +0,7% almost at 10,000 deaths per day...would make 3,650,000 per year..."living with the virus"...our "leaders" may see this as an acceptable number...

A few countries; 

US had almost 170,000 cases yesterday, 1,215 deaths reported trends cases +7%, deaths +9%

UK 38,281 cases, 140 deaths...trends cases +11%, deaths +15%

NL 2,594 cases, 8 deaths, trends cases +2%, deaths +26%

Israel 6,064 cases, 29 deaths, trends cases +15%, deaths +25%

If there is a strategy what is that strategy ? Why things have to get much worse before we see-again-restrictions-that-again-will be lifted to soon ? 

Why Delta in India was not bad enough and we repeat the same tragedy in the US, UK, NL etc. Did we not learn anything from India in april with Delta killing between 3 and 5 million people there ? 

The official number of global Covid deaths is moving towards 4,5 million...in climate "change" politicians claim they keep temperature rise under 1,5c...while the real number may allready be over 2c...No doubt some politicians soon may claim the "Kabul air bridge"was a succes...even get a lot of votes for such lies...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream latest; Covid: Arkansas jail dosing inmates with ivermectin in spite of FDA warnings

It is unclear if patients have been told that the de-worming drug is not an approved Covid treatment

Inmates at a north-west Arkansas jail have been prescribed a medicine for treating coronavirus that is normally used to deworm livestock, despite federal health warnings to the public in exasperated tones.

...The US FDA has approved ivermectin in both people and animals for some parasitic worms and for head lice and skin conditions. The FDA has not approved its use in treating or preventing Covid-19 in humans.

“Using any treatment for Covid-19 that’s not approved or authorized by the FDA, unless part of a clinical trial, can cause serious harm,” the FDA said in a warning about the drug.

DJ Ivermectin may not be approved by the FDA, most vaccines also are not approved by the FDA...playing "games" with Pfizer (not approved under the name Pfizer-Biontech) does not help...The US has 25% of the global number of people in prison-over 2 million ! Some of them fighting fires, others now used to deal with dead bodies...."land of possibilities"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922539-covid-data-disappearing-in-some-states-even-as-delta-surges[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922539-covid-data-disappearing-in-some-states-even-as-delta-surges ;

Two state government websites in Georgia recently stopped posting updates about Covid-19 cases in prisons and long-term care facilities, just as the dangerous delta variant was taking hold.

Data have been disappearing recently in other states, as well.

Florida, for example, now reports Covid cases, deaths and hospitalizations once a week, instead of daily, as before.

... Public health experts are voicing concern about the pullback of Covid information. Dr. Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, said the trend is “not good for government and the public” because it gives the appearance that governments are “hiding stuff.”

... Another state website, run by the Public Health Department, no longer links to a listing of the number of Covid cases among residents and staffers of nursing homes and other long-term care residences by facility.

DJ If you do not like the numbers change the numbers, if you can not control the crisis control the news...How can people trust governments on this basis ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922537-fha-survey-68-florida-hospitals-have-less-than-48-hours-worth-of-oxygen[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922537-fha-survey-68-florida-hospitals-have-less-than-48-hours-worth-of-oxygen ; The Florida Hospital Association is sounding the alarm, saying a survey shows 68 hospitals have less than a 48-hour supply of oxygen.

Hospitals are using three to four times as much oxygen as they were before the pandemic because more than 17,000 patients are hospitalized statewide with COVID-19.

The FHA survey, which was done Wednesday, shows 68 hospitals have less than 48 hours worth of supply, with about half of these have less than 36 hours.

DJ Should I mention hurricane season [url]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/[/url] or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/922529-mmwr-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccines-in-preventing-sars-cov-2-infection-among-frontline-workers-before-and-during-b-1-617-2-delta-variant-predominance-%E2%80%94-eight-u-s-locations-december-2020%E2%80%93august-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/922529-mmwr-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccines-in-preventing-sars-cov-2-infection-among-frontline-workers-before-and-during-b-1-617-2-delta-variant-predominance-%E2%80%94-eight-u-s-locations-december-2020%E2%80%93august-2021 ; During Delta variant–predominant weeks at study sites, 488 unvaccinated participants contributed a median of 43 days (IQR = 37–69 days; total = 24,871 days) with 19 SARS-CoV-2 infections (94.7% symptomatic); 2,352 fully vaccinated participants contributed a median of 49 days (IQR = 35–56 days; total = 119,218 days) with 24 SARS-CoV-2 infections (75.0% symptomatic). Adjusted VE during this Delta predominant period was 66% (95% CI = 26%–84%) compared with 91% (95% CI = 81%–96%) during the months preceding Delta predominance.

DJ I am NOT an expert but vaccine protection seems to be decreasing because of waning of immunity after 6 months and new variants more evading immunity...Non Pharma Intervention (+testing) did show to do much better then vaccines did ! Why wait with that till hospitals are totally out of capacity ? 

Answer-here in NL our "government" allows events that bring in votes...football matches, racing...Also "saving the economy" is often used-but after 18-20 months in this pandemic you have to be quite blind for believing that...Again-in 1521 this virus proberbly would remain a local-very limited problem. In 2021 it is a global problem because we keep spreading the virus all over the globe high speed ! 

In a pandemic you need hosts, disease and spread. Instead of STOP THE SPREAD governments do all they can to allow the spread..."because of leaky vaccines"....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922527-health-chief-children-now-36-of-tennessee%E2%80%99s-virus-cases[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922527-health-chief-children-now-36-of-tennessee%E2%80%99s-virus-cases ; Children now make up 36% of Tennessee’s reported COVID-19 cases, marking yet another sobering milestone in the state’s battle against the highly contagious delta variant, Health Commissioner Lisa Piercey said Wednesday.

“We had 14,000 pediatric cases in the last seven days, which is a 57% increase over the week prior,” Piercey told reporters. “Right now, 36% of all of our cases in the state are among children when it’s historically been in the 10 to 15% range.”

DJ In India, Indonesia, Israel Delta showed to do much more harm if it infected children...months ago !!! Still US, UK, NL etc seem to think children in their countries are that different ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922526-new-york-s-new-governor-adds-12-000-covid-19-deaths-to-state-s-previous-tally[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922526-new-york-s-new-governor-adds-12-000-covid-19-deaths-to-state-s-previous-tally ; Delivering another blow to what's left of former New York governor Andrew Cuomo's legacy, the state's new governor acknowledged on her first day in office that New York has had nearly 12,000 more deaths from COVID-19 than Cuomo told the public.

"The public deserves a clear, honest picture of what's happening. And that's whether it's good or bad, they need to know the truth. And that's how we restore confidence," Gov. Kathy Hochul said on NPR.

In its first daily update on the outbreak Tuesday evening, Hochul's office reported that nearly 55,400 people have died of the coronavirus in New York, based on death certificate data submitted to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

That's up from about 43,400 that Cuomo reported to the public as of Monday, his last day in office.

DJ Conservative global excess deaths numbers may hint at 10-12 million global Covid deaths...If you would go for "pandemic deaths" (including people that did not die from covid but would be alive if there was no pandemic, dying from not getting treatment for cancer, heartdisease etc) I think you could get to 15-20 million deaths ? 

When you look at Spanish Flu numbers the lowest is 20 million-the highest put it at 100 million deaths...also the timing may be different. Small timing is 1918-19, wider time range looks at 1917-1923...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922524-cidrap-us-covid-19-hospitalizations-match-winter-surge[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922524-cidrap-us-covid-19-hospitalizations-match-winter-surge ; More than 100,000 Americans are currently hospitalized with COVID-19, a level not seen since Jan 30, when the pandemic reached its peak in the United States, the Washington Post reports.
Hospitalizations are highest across the South, where unvaccinated communities especially vulnerable to the Delta (B1617.2) variant have seen a surge of virus activity since the July 4 weekend, a time that was supposed to mark the country’s independence from the virus. Florida has the most hospitalizations in the country, with 17,000, followed by Texas, with 14,000.

-

Half of American workers are in favor of vaccine requirements at their workplaces, according to a new Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll. Another half are in favor of mask mandates when working in person.
Black and Hispanic poll respondents were more likely to support mask requirements than their White counterparts, and 53% of Black and Hispanic workers support vaccine mandates at their workplaces, as do 44% of White workers.

-

CDC warns of ivermectin misuse

Poison control centers across the nation have received an uptick in calls about ivermectin, an antiparasitic drug used in livestock that some have promoted as a treatment for COVID-19, USA Today reports. Ivermectin has not been found to prevent or treat COVID-19, but misinformation about the drug has spread on the Internet.
Today, the CDC released a Health Alert Network (HAN) advisory, noting that poison control centers across the country received a threefold increase in calls about human exposures to ivermectin in January 2021 compared with the pre-pandemic baseline. In July, the calls increased fivefold from baseline.
“These reports are also associated with increased frequency of adverse effects and emergency department/hospital visits,” the CDC said.

DJ It is the end of summer but global pandemic statistics are at high winter level allready ! 

People are told vaccines are "the way out of the pandemic". I wish it worked that way ! Vaccines AND NPI could have done that job...but it may be to late for that now ! Many people did return from vacation, schools soon will have reopened...most likely both cases and deaths will go for new record highs ! So far 900,000 cases per day, 17,500 deaths per day have been the highest...

If hospitals are overloaded and you have symptoms I understand you may look at least some form of treatment. People did misuse medication all over history. There may be some easy to get medications, treatments...but if you have serious healthissues get medical advice ! (And use basic thinking-if you want to go for medication used on an animal twice your size don't overdose !)https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922521-cidrap-australia-new-zealand-report-record-covid-19-cases[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922521-cidrap-australia-new-zealand-report-record-covid-19-cases ; As they both battle the highly transmissible Delta (B1617.2) variant, COVID-19 cases in Australia and New Zealand reached new daily highs.
In other developments, Vietnam is sending troops to help with a surge in one of its main manufacturing hubs, and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) announced steps to ramp up vaccine production in Latin America.

DJ Strategies that worked before the Delta variant are not enough to stop Delta...Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam going for zero-Covid but may need months to get there...(Australia planning to reopen borders with 80% of adults vaccinated soon will find out they are better of with borders closed !)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/922584-emerg-infect-dis-transmission-of-sars-cov-2-from-human-to-domestic-ferret[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/922584-emerg-infect-dis-transmission-of-sars-cov-2-from-human-to-domestic-ferret ; We report a case of natural infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmitted from an owner to a pet ferret in the same household in Slovenia. The ferret had onset of gastroenteritis with severe dehydration. Whole-genome sequencing of the viruses isolated from the owner and ferret revealed a 2-nt difference.

DJ Ferrets are close to mink...very easy to catch Covid...A "2-nt difference" ??? [url]https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/9/21-0774_article[/url] or https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/9/21-0774_article ; On November 20, 2020, a 5-year-old neutered male domestic ferret had signs of acute gastroenteritis, including apathy, anorexia, vomiting, and profuse mucous diarrhea. Another ferret in the same household appeared healthy.

-

The comparison of both sequences showed ≈100% identity, differing by 2 nucleotides (position/owner/ferret: 2,097/G/T; 22,832/C/A).

DJ Two mutations in one transfer from human to ferret in pre-Delta times...It must be much more widespread with more mutations...

Related [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/922590-emerg-infect-dis-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2-in-farmed-mink-neovison-vison-poland[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/922590-emerg-infect-dis-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2-in-farmed-mink-neovison-vison-poland ; We investigated SARS-CoV-2 infection in 91 mink from a farm in northern Poland. Using reverse transcription PCR, antigen detection, and next-generation sequencing, we confirmed that 15 animals were positive for SARS-CoV-2. 

We verified this finding by sequencing full viral genomes and confirmed a virus variant that has sporadic mutations through the full genome sequence in the spike protein (G75V and C1247F). 

We were unable to find other SARS-CoV-2 sequences simultaneously containing these 2 mutations. Country-scale monitoring by veterinary inspection should be implemented to detect SARS-CoV-2 in other mink farms.

DJ Spread of Covid19/SARS-2 in non-human hosts may go undetected till it reaches human hosts again. It will result in new variants....It must be happening in high numbers all over the globe..we just are not looking at it ! Where there are minks there are mice, rats, and therefor cats...They also may catch Covid19/SARS-2 quite easy...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/922595-lancet-reg-health-eur-monitoring-sars-cov-2-variants-alterations-in-nice-neighborhoods-by-wastewater-nanopore-sequencing[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/922595-lancet-reg-health-eur-monitoring-sars-cov-2-variants-alterations-in-nice-neighborhoods-by-wastewater-nanopore-sequencing ; Background: Wastewater surveillance was proposed as an epidemiological tool to define the prevalence and evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemics. However, most implemented SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance projects were based on qPCR measurement of virus titers and did not address the mutational spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in the population.
Methods: We have implemented a nanopore RNA sequencing monitoring system in the city of Nice (France, 550,000 inhabitants). Between October 2020 and March 2021, we monthly analyzed the SARS-CoV-2 variants in 113 wastewater samples collected in the main wastewater treatment plant and 20 neighborhoods.
Findings: We initially detected the lineages predominant in Europe at the end of 2020 (B.1.160, B.1.177, B.1.367, B.1.474, and B.1.221). In January, a localized emergence of a variant (Spike:A522S) of the B.1.1.7 lineage occurred in one neighborhood. It rapidly spread and became dominant all over the city. Other variants of concern (B.1.351, P.1) were also detected in some neighborhoods, but at low frequency. Comparison with individual clinical samples collected during the same week showed that wastewater sequencing correctly identified the same lineages as those found in COVID-19 patients.
Interpretation: Wastewater sequencing allowed to document the diversity of SARS-CoV-2 sequences within the different neighborhoods of the city of Nice. Our results illustrate how sequencing of sewage samples can be used to track pathogen sequence diversity in the current pandemics and in future infectious disease outbreaks.

DJ Waste water can be used not only to see if Covid is spreading, but also to see if variants are showing up...most of the time we are not using this early warning system....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922594-propublica-the-cdc-only-tracks-a-fraction-of-breakthrough-covid-19-infections-even-as-cases-surge[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922594-propublica-the-cdc-only-tracks-a-fraction-of-breakthrough-covid-19-infections-even-as-cases-surge ; Meggan Ingram was fully vaccinated when she tested positive for COVID-19 early this month. The 37-year-old’s fever had spiked to 103 and her breath was coming in ragged bursts when an ambulance rushed her to an emergency room in Pasco, Washington, on Aug. 10. For three hours she was given oxygen and intravenous steroids, but she was ultimately sent home without being admitted.

Seven people in her house have now tested positive. Five were fully vaccinated and two of the children are too young to get a vaccine...

DJ "Vaccine religion"..."experts" simply do not want to know if vaccines do not the expected job !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/922580-mbio-sars-cov-2-bearing-a-mutation-at-the-s1-s2-cleavage-site-exhibits-attenuated-virulence-and-confers-protective-immunity[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/922580-mbio-sars-cov-2-bearing-a-mutation-at-the-s1-s2-cleavage-site-exhibits-attenuated-virulence-and-confers-protective-immunity ; In this study, we employed SARS-CoV-2 mutants lacking the S protein cleavage site and characterized their growth and pathogenicity using hamsters, a laboratory animal model for SARS-CoV-2 infection. These mutants exerted low pathogenicity but induced sufficient levels of neutralizing antibodies in hamsters, which protected hamsters from rechallenge with pathogenic clinical SARS-CoV-2 strains. These virus mutants may be used as protective immunogens against SARS-CoV-2 infection.

DJ Maybe some good news ? 

My conclusion for today is; While governments worldwide are pushing for vaccines numbers indicate vaccines are not doing as good as was hoped. DJ-Vaccinations did buy time...Time wasted on reopenings NOT on finding a better strategy ! 

I still think-for now-getting vaccinated may be the best option. But we may be getting close to the point that vaccine risks are getting larger then the protection they offer. 

Like in climate collapse "playing with numbers" only will have limited effect. There is a better alternative-NPI ! Lockdowns ! They are on their way anyhow-the sooner you start with it the more effect they have. But "governments" now are not only in denial of pandemic risks but also do not want to be realistic on vaccines ! You can not vaccinate yourself out of a pandemic !!!

Again Delta has a R0 of between 5 and 8 you would need both vaccines AND NPI/restrictions...Most countries went for vaccinations to give up on restrictions...so we are seeing global increase of cases (in reality) ...

Wishfull thinking is NOT science ! Experts following political orders are no longer doing their job !  Just like in climate change denial is NOT an answer...the crises are only getting worse !

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vYslhtMbDw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vYslhtMbDw Vaccinated 29,2 times less likely to end up in hospital...

DJ-FOR NOW !!!! Vaccination still may offer protection but the level of protection is going down. Due to limited vaccine protection (the older you get the less effective !) and new variants. 

If we want to end this pandemic-and I am asking if that is the goal !-we needed vaccines AND NPI ! But the goal seems to be living with a pandemic to save the economy ! And that is insane !

Music; I Never Promised You A Rosegarden - Lynn Anderson - 1973 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwHHCZTvQco[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwHHCZTvQco 

KiwiMum-It is amazing what can be found in waste water...drug use, pregnancies, some organ faillures, diabetes etc...If prevention would be the basis of healthcare costss would be lower, people be healthier...Preventative healthcare NOT being the norm is one of the things I fail to understand...In NL cars get better checks then a lot of people !

DJ, 

"Facing problems is the start of solving problems..." (Well that is how I see it at least...)

The Afghan-crisis, on top of not getting a grip on this pandemic, climate/earthquake disasters on their way can "shake" a political system. Blind capitalism-seeing every disaster as a bussiness oppertunity to make profit-again in my opinion-has become a major problem !

Some companies are getting very rich from this pandemic. "Green Choices" to decrease fossil fuel but go on with wasting energy, water, are not realistic solutions. Here in NL number of cars do increase...public transport is decreasing...even suburbia now often is facing car/traffic problems...a "liberal=denialism government" simply will not solve any problem unless companies can make profit out of it...

BPEarthwatch [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfGKahpLxC8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfGKahpLxC8 Hurricane "Ida" may even reach cat 5-is expected to get 140 mph winds-15 feet flooding...(International that is 224 km/h wind and 4,5 meter flood !). BPEarthwatch yesterday also had solar flares...linking it with increased risk of earthquakes when solar winds reaches the Earth magnetic field. 

I-again am not an expert but [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Storm_names[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Storm_names "Julian", "Kate" and "Larry" may allready be forming in the Atlantic Ocean...even "Mindy" could show up early september !

I do NOT like the global [url]https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/[/url] or https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/ picture;

1.There is a link between hurricane water movement and seismic activity

2.South Atlantic South Sandwich Island region quakes keeps going on with M5+ quakes

3.Solar wind may be a factor

4.Several major quakes should be expected, are overdue...

Many languages have saying like "disasters never are single events" . Delta getting out of control due to failing governments in combination with climate collapse related earthquakes [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isostatic_depression[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isostatic_depression (Greenland landice may 3 km thick-melting of all that ice would lift that part of Greenland 1 km ! = lots of seismic activity !) may be "very bad news" !

-Numbers on the pandemic [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

global reported cases 713,802, global deaths 9,966. The US (under)reporting 190,000+ cases, 1,304 deaths...The US is not the only country repeating the April-India-Delta crisis....but this is becoming so sad...

Coming monday the middle part of NL schools will be reopening, last monday the north did reopen. Monday september 6 all schools are supposed to be open...no masks, no social distancing, kids not vaccinated...NL experts seem to think NL children are different than children in India, Indonesia, Israel, US, Scotland...they all see massive numbers of children getting (very) ill...But no reason NOT to reopen schools in NL...frustrating is not the right word...criminal comes more close...

trends [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table cases -0,3%, deaths +0,1% worldwide...68,794 deaths reported last week, worldwide...

New Zealand cases going up 509% = last week 54, this week 329...on a population of just over 5 million...

Denmark cases +0,6%, deaths still going up 160% from 5 to 13 this week may be reopening november 1 with 80% of the 12 y/o+ population vaccinated (not mandatory...but because they believed it was a better choice !!! Even in China vaccinations may be not mandatory...with a lot of people not going for vaccination !)

[url]https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2021/08/27/denmark-lifts-all-coronavirus-restrictions-except-entry-rules/[/url] or https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2021/08/27/denmark-lifts-all-coronavirus-restrictions-except-entry-rules/  DJ-There is disagreement between experts but I think most sense is in; Delta R0 of between 5 and 8 = vaccinations AND restrictions !

On new variants I was expecting to see more news...a lot of infections=a lot of mutations=new variants...On the other hand; Delta may be hard to beat ! It could be there allready is a shift from Delta to Delta+...The info on that Delta+ may hint that naming it Delta with a + could have been a mistake. There turn out to be much more mutations/differences...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant may be an underestimate of how different Delta+ is...(AY.1, AY.2 and AY.3 subtypes to make it even more complicated...).

I think there will be much more variants but with much less chances to spread for those variants. Untill a new variant shows up-able to "break" the Delta"blockade" Delta (+?) will remain dominant. Once that new variant manages to spread it may be able to "go wild" even in vaccinated...

-Flutrackers a.o. latest posts;

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/08/27/covid-vaccines-effective-delta-variant-alpha-variant-dutch-health-institute[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/08/27/covid-vaccines-effective-delta-variant-alpha-variant-dutch-health-institute ; 

The Covid-19 vaccines prevent hospitalization and ICU admission at the same rate regardless if the recipient is infected with the Delta variant of the coronavirus or the Alpha variant, the RIVM says on the basis of research using Dutch vaccination and hospital figures. The chance of being admitted to a hospital as a fully vaccinated person after infection is twenty times lower than for a non-vaccinated person. The chance of ending up in an intensive care unit is 33 times smaller when fully vaccinated.

On average, the Covid-19 vaccines given in the Netherlands prevent a person from requiring hospitalization 95 percent of the time, and 97 percent of the time against ICU admission, when someone was infected with the Delta variant, according to the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). In the Netherlands, most jabs were given using the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.

DJ Most vaccinations in NL are less then 6 months "old" so they would offer protection. The "old and vulnarable" also often limit exposure...they are not going to festivals, matches etc. So the NL finding may show the NL situation for now ! 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/08/28/covid-19-vaccination-rate-among-young-people-will-play-key-role-rest-crisis-rivm[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/08/28/covid-19-vaccination-rate-among-young-people-will-play-key-role-rest-crisis-rivm ; 

Education in the Netherlands will fully reopen on Monday, yet only 65 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds have had their first Covid-19 vaccine dose and for 12- to 17-year-olds that figure rests at half.

Around 85 percent of people between the ages of 12- to 24-year-olds said they want to get vaccinated. “If that does not happen, it could play a very important, decisive role in the further course of the epidemic”, Wallinga said.

“There is a certain stability in the Netherlands but there is an underlying dynamic that will determine the developments in the upcoming period”, Van Dissel said.

Despite the stability in the Netherlands, there are still many countries worldwide that have low vaccination rates. “Covid-19 is absolutely not under control on a global level”, the CIb director said.

Coronavirus infections from abroad can spill over in the Netherlands. Around 20 percent of positive coronavirus tests in the past week were the origin was known came from abroad. “The Netherlands is a European hub and actually a kind of city-state, given the population density and the built environment”, Van Dissel pointed out. That means that infections can quickly spread across the country.

DJ Ventilation at schools is a major concern. Average NL schools are 40 years old...some of them +80 years...With colder weather on its way allready keeping windows open is less likely...Fear of needles is a major factor in young age groups. One has to take those fears serious (always take people serious !) and find ways to deal with those fears. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/922632-china-entrances-and-exits-of-93-expressway-toll-stations-in-jiangsu-24-highways-were-temporarily-closed-in-one-or-two-directions-august-28-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/922632-china-entrances-and-exits-of-93-expressway-toll-stations-in-jiangsu-24-highways-were-temporarily-closed-in-one-or-two-directions-august-28-2021 ; 24 ordinary national and provincial highways in Jiangsu are temporarily closed in one or two directions

DJ Most likely linked to China trying to limit the spread of Delta-variants. China reporting 0 deaths cases going down from last week 319 to this week 186 -42% (with draconian policies...but keeping this pandemic going may be much worse !).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/922612-ida-expected-to-become-a-major-hurricane-headed-for-louisiana[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/922612-ida-expected-to-become-a-major-hurricane-headed-for-louisiana ; “The storm is ahead of schedule,” Gov. Edwards said quoting one official.

The governor advised Louisiana residents to be “where you need to be” to ride out the storm by late Saturday, Aug. 27.

An official with the National Weather Service warned Hurricane Ida will be “stronger than Hurricane Laura” and will be a “life altering event.”

DJ External factors worsening the pandemic.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922627-cidrap-half-of-us-teens-partially-vaccinated-against-covid[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922627-cidrap-half-of-us-teens-partially-vaccinated-against-covid ; Half of US 12- to 17-year-olds have received their first COVID-19 vaccine dose, and their vaccination rate is rising higher than any other age-group, said White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Jeff Zients during a White House briefing today.
Despite the milestone, concerns about the school year continue as the Delta variant (B1617.2) rips through the country: At the same briefing, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Rochelle Walensky, MD, MPH, said yesterday's 7-day averages showed that COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have gone up 2.8%, 5.7%, and 11.0%, respectively.
The United States reported 161,331 new COVID-19 cases and 1,292 deaths yesterday, according to the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 tracker. The CDC COVID Data Tracker shows that 51.9% of Americans are fully vaccinated and that 61.1% have received at least one dose.

CDC school guidelines will not change

Pediatric COVID-19 cases were one of the main topics at the White House briefing, and Walensky said the CDC was not looking at updating its pre-Delta school guidelines at this time.
While there has been a rise in COVID-19 cases in school-age children, Walensky said the highest surges are in schools that have not followed the current guidelines and that data show schools are more a reflection of the community landscape rather than propagator of more cases.

-

Walensky also fielded questions about potential increases in pediatric COVID-19 hospitalization rates.
"What we're seeing here is increasing cases across the country and therefore increasing cases in hospitalizations of all age demographics," she said. "But because the absolute number of cases is so high, the absolute number of children that are coming into hospitals is high."
Alabama, for instance, has seen a sharp rise in pediatric cases, with 5,571 cases in children ages 5 to 17 years last week, compared with 702 during the same week last year, according to USA Today. State vaccinations have been increasing in the past weeks, but Springfield, Missouri, News-Leader data show the proportion of the population that is fully vaccinated is only now surpassing 37%.
As Sean O'Leary, MD, MPH, vice chair of the American Academy of Pediatrics' Committee on Infectious Diseases, told Time yesterday, "Kids don't tend to drive what's going on; they tend to reflect what's going on in the surrounding community."
He added that while some exceptions may exist, pediatric hospitalizations are greatest in states with the lowest vaccine coverage.

DJ The major problem in southern US and limited other places can be people claiming there is no Covid, no pandemic...In NL a small group of people-a lot of them ending up in hospital-also deny Covid. Hospitals have problems with family members not sticking to rules...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922626-cidrap-study-half-of-covid-19-survivors-have-at-least-1-symptom-a-year-later[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922626-cidrap-study-half-of-covid-19-survivors-have-at-least-1-symptom-a-year-later ; Roughly half of 1,276 adult COVID-19 survivors in Wuhan, China, still had at least one symptom—with a third still reporting shortness of breath—a year after their release from the hospital, finds a single-center study yesterday in The Lancet.
Led by researchers at Capital Medical University in Beijing, the study involved evaluating and interviewing COVID-19 survivors 6 and 12 months after symptom onset (Jan 7 to May 29, 2020).
Median age was 59 years, 53% were men, and median follow-up time was 185 days for the first visit and 349 for the second. A matched control group included 3,383 adults never infected with SARS-CoV-2.

Heart, breathing, mental health problems

At 6 months, 68% of patients still had at least one persistent COVID-19 symptom (eg, sleep problems, heart palpitations, joint pain, chest pain), falling to 49% at 12 months. But the proportion of patients with shortness of breath rose slightly over that period, from 26% to 30%.
Also, more patients reported anxiety or depression at 12 months than at 6 months (26% vs 23%)

DJ The social impact of this ongoing impact now will show. People asking questions on why they did get sick, loved ones died, government (in)action. The "seeds of fury start blooming"...This pandemic is the outcome of "liberal" policies killing millions ! 

Do we get a 1776/1789 (US/French revolution) repeat ? No. We may see worse than "1984" police state...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922625-cidrap-africa-s-covid-19-trend-stabilizes-vaccine-push-intensifies[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922625-cidrap-africa-s-covid-19-trend-stabilizes-vaccine-push-intensifies ; The pace of COVID-19 activity in Africa has stabilized, but at a very high level, amid fresh calls to coordinate global efforts to funnel more of the world's vaccine supplies to African countries, which have among the world's lowest immunization coverage.

-

More global headlines

• India's daily cases have risen sharply over the past few days, with Kerala and Maharashtra states as the main hot spots, according to Reuters. The country's government has asked the two states to impose night curfews to drive down cases. The rise in Kerala, which accounted for nearly 60% of India's latest cases, recently celebrated Onam, an annual Hindu festival that features cultural events and family gatherings.
• A WHO document seen by Reuters said the agency's pandemic preparedness program has plans to distribute 100 million doses of China's Sinovac and Sinopharm vaccine by the end of September as part of COVAX efforts, mainly to Africa and Asia.
• New Zealand again reported a record daily number of COVID-19 cases, with 70 new infections reported, according to the New Zealand Herald.
• Myanmar signaled that it will vaccinate Muslim Rohingya people against COVID-19, Reuters reported, citing a spokesman for the country's military junta. Thousands of Rohingya, a persecuted group, have fled to neighboring Bangladesh, where officials had earlier launched vaccination in the Cox's Bazar refugee area.

DJ Since Africa does not have a lot of vaccines other steps may limit the spread of the virus ! Non Pharma Intervention is much more effective then vaccines ! But a combination of both is needed if "societies want limited reopening". Problem is vaccines are used as an excuse for "freedom" ...giving up more then is gained by vaccinations...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/922619-contamination-or-vaccine-research-rna-sequencing-data-of-early-covid-19-patient-samples-show-abnormal-presence-of-vectorized-h7n9-hemagglutinin-segment[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/922619-contamination-or-vaccine-research-rna-sequencing-data-of-early-covid-19-patient-samples-show-abnormal-presence-of-vectorized-h7n9-hemagglutinin-segment ; The presence of non-SARS-CoV-2, including these influenza A genes, has been reported earlier, and this data was also used in our current study for comparison and analysis. The surprising finding was the HA segment 4 gene cloned in an expression vector, pVAX1, confirming previously identified vector sequences^3,4. A WIV publication documented that DNA vaccines containing H7N9 HA genes were being developed and tested in mice in WIV at the same time as the outbreak (2019-2020). In addition, all five samples showed a relatively high proportion of Spodoptera frugiperda rhabdovirus (13-83% of SARS-CoV-2 reads). Additionally, the samples also showed the presence of other low-abundance, high homology (LAHH) sequences, mostly of viral origin and not expected to be associated with human BALF specimens. These LAHH sequences could be contaminants, and we identified these viruses as part of previously published research at the WIV, providing a genomic record of prior work. The ability to identify previously performed research in the meta-transcriptome raw data reads from a laboratory provides a new forensic tool. The presence of cloned H7N9 HA gene segment in the transcriptome data of the early five patients processed in the WIV should be treated as an important forensic clue and warrants a full investigation. The most important question considering the plausible hypothesis that the SARS-CoV-2 could have escaped due to a lab accident would be: what does the co-occurrence of vectorized H7N9 sequences with SARS-CoV2 sequences in the early COVID-19 patients suggests?

DJ As far as I know coronavirus disease in non human hosts has been a major problem in recent history. Most likely lots of universities doing all kind of studies on CoViD in animals. No idea how safe that is...(So did this pandemic start in a Wuhan-lab ? I do not think that is very likely...if it did it may be hard to find out. Say mice did get infected in the lab, escaped, did spread it to other non-human hosts...Lab-escape may be hard to detect. Even 99,99% safety leaves some risks.)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922611-nepal-half-of-the-population-already-exposed-to-the-virus-new-study-says[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922611-nepal-half-of-the-population-already-exposed-to-the-virus-new-study-says ; The nationwide study carried out in 76 of the 77 districts of the country, except for Manang, in July, with technical as well as financial support from the World Health Organisation, has found that the majority of the population in densely populated cities across the country has antibodies for the coronavirus.

“A preliminary report of the study shows that over 50 percent of the country’s population was found to have antibodies against the coronavirus,” an official at the Health Ministry told the Post on condition of anonymity.

Antibodies are found in people who are already infected with the coronavirus or have been vaccinated.

DJ Delta+ is the "Nepal" variant...Earlier in Manaus-Brazil "natural immunity" did not prevent another variant wave 9 months later...

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuPRe0fAhkY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuPRe0fAhkY on US intel on how this pandemic started; unclear story...DJ-I think US "confrontation policy" is a major problem. China may be willing to give a lot of info...proberbly allready did give a lot of info in Chinese ! 

There are lots of questions on Covid19 in 2019. Not only in China but worldwide...Finding out how it started may be very complicated if not-yet-impossible. We did find out on what caused the Spanish Flu over 50 years later (with dead Flu victum bodies in frozen Alaska earth were investigated and A-H1N1 was detected). 

There may be more blood, sewage etc samples around the globe providing more info. Maybe some (dead) animals also may give some info...

The "blame-game" does not help ! Blaming unvaccinated for an explosion in US cases is false ! Lifting mask-mandates, starting international air travel, in fact acting as if the pandemic was history may be the main reason why Delta is exploding !

Again most countries do NOT have mandatory vaccinations and see often very high level of vaccinations (often 80%+ in adults or 12 y/o+). Here in NL 90%+ of the 12 y/o+ age group is willing to get vaccinated ! But the idea that even 90%+ of 12y/o+ getting vaccinated is enough to end this pandemic-without restrictions-is enough is the wrong idea !

-Music; Dusty Springfield - The Summer Is Over [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtVHVtppwPE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtVHVtppwPE lyrics;

The night runs away with the day 

The grass that was green is now hay 

The world goes around without even a sound 

And it looks like the summer is over 

The rains tumble down in the sky 

Young swallows have learned how to fly 

The leaves that were green are no longer so green 

And it looks like the summer is over 

The sun and the moon take turns in the sky 

The days drift on by too soon 

The meadows are kissed by a cool autumn mist 

Far away now is June 

The birds fly away to the sun 

The leaves touch the ground one by one 

The breeze hurries by without even goodbye 

And it looks like the summer is over 

The sun and the moon take turns in the sky 

The days drift on by too soon 

The meadows are kissed by a cool autumn mist

 Far away now is June 

The birds fly away to the sun 

The leaves touch the ground one by one 

The breeze hurries by without even goodbye 

And it looks like the summer is over 

And it looks like the summer is over

Love those lyrics !

DJ, 

Let me start with a positive thought; two ways we could get out of this pandemic this year: 1=A mild variant shows up gets dominant. 2=Governments take this pandemic serious....

On 1 I would love to believe there would be a mild Covid19 variant somewhere on the horizon...I do not think we are there yet. The idea of "Covid getting milder" however is one of the reasons governments do not act..."saving the economy"...This also would be my response on option #2...: [url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/ ; UK prime minister Boris Johnson this week has been reported to say it’s OK if 1000 people die from COVID every week. No action will be taken to prevent it.

DJ-The bad news is-like climate change-CoViD-19 is exponential. "Our leaders" do not get that basic point. "The driver does not see the wall at the end of the dead end street because he is looking backwards...."

So new variants are showing up ! 

From [url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing ;

Breaking—Fears growing that a new #DeltaVariant subvariant has emerged after 5000 young people infected from attending a 53,000 music festival in Cornwall—linked genetically to a Delta subtype. The region now has the highest #COVID19 rate in England.  https://inews.co.uk/news/health/boardmasters-festival-new-delta-strain-cornwall-event-1172393

and 

NEW VARIANT—a new #SARSCoV2 variant C.1.2 just identified in South Africa & several countries, with concerns it could be more infectious and evade vaccines. #C12 also has mutation rate that is nearly **twice as fast** as the rate of the other variants. https://jpost.com/health-science/new-covid-variant-detected-in-south-africa-most-mutated-variant-so-far-678011…

DJ link to study [url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.20.21262342v2.full[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.20.21262342v2.full 

The twitter goes on; It means that #C12 variant has somehow mutated so fast and far that it is now the FURTHEST MUTATED variant found to date! It has mutated the greatest genetic distance from the original Wuhan 1.0 strain—and implies potential troubles for 1.0 vaccines.

it gets worse with #C12… it has a 1.7x to 1.8x faster mutation rate than the average of all other variants! The authors note this coincides with the emergence pattern of other really bad VOC variants. 

DJ So we may now be dealing with the new variant(s) evading vaccine immunity ????

Where does this story put us ? [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/08/is-the-ipcc-creating-false-perceptions-again.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/08/is-the-ipcc-creating-false-perceptions-again.html ...Living with climate change, living with pandemics, living with everlasting wars....we may not survive this "living with..."...

NSW-Australia IS in lockdown still Delta (+?) is spreading out of control in the Sydney area...The new variants that start showing up may increase even with Delta with a R0 between 5 and 8 allready being a very "strong" disease...

Israel is going for booster vaccines-looks like a scenario that when the vaccine is over 6 months old "you are seen as unvaccinated"...

The "good news" is NPI may be far more effective than vaccines so far have been ! But that is a matter of choice now only getting more urgent ; S T O P   T H E   S P R E A D   ! ! ! ! ! !

And since "our leaders" are looking backwards, counting money, partying or whatever the wall is there....

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ reflecting limited sunday testing...Maybe some "hopium" in the global trends cases -2%, deaths -0,5% ...Why do India cases show +17%, deaths +10% ? 

Israel cases +16%, deaths +14% (153 deaths last week, 175 this week...), US cases -2% ????

After "Ida" a lot of testing will be problematic with a lot of damage in the US states with allready very high prevalence of Covid-cases...

"Statistics are a great way to lie", "less testing=less cases" etc...

-Flutrackers;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/922612-ida-expected-to-become-a-major-hurricane-headed-for-louisiana-this-is-a-life-threatening-situation?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/922612-ida-expected-to-become-a-major-hurricane-headed-for-louisiana-this-is-a-life-threatening-situation?view=stream latests; Lafitte and Jean Lafitte under flash flood warning due to levee failure 

-

New Orleans confirms another levee failure near Plaquemines Parish.

DJ It is unclear yet how much damage "Ida" did...with close to 3,000 Covid patients in the hospitals not being able to be located in a more safe area. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/922709-just-facts-about-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/922709-just-facts-about-covid-19 ; Given the spread of misinformation about Covid-19, Just Facts is providing a trove of rigorously documented facts about this disease and its impacts. These include some essential facts that have been absent or misreported in much of the media’s coverage of this issue.

This research also includes a groundbreaking study to determine the lethality of Covid-19 based on the most comprehensive available measure: the total years of life that it will rob from all people. This accords with the CDC’s tenet that “the allocation of health resources must consider not only the number of deaths by cause” but also the “years of potential life lost.”...

DJ link [url]https://www.justfacts.com/[/url] or https://www.justfacts.com/ - problem/discussion may be in the interpretation, what do these facts mean, say...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/surveillance-and-epidemic-control/922681-microorganisms-an-outbreak-of-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-h7n7-in-australia-and-the-potential-for-novel-influenza-a-viruses-to-emerge[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/surveillance-and-epidemic-control/922681-microorganisms-an-outbreak-of-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-h7n7-in-australia-and-the-potential-for-novel-influenza-a-viruses-to-emerge ; The avian HPAI H7N7 virus generally does not infect humans; however, evidence shows the ocular pathway presents a favourable tissue tropism for human infection. Through antigenic drift, mutations in the H7N7 viral genome may increase virulence and pathogenicity in humans. 

The Victorian outbreak also detected LPAI H7N6 in emus at a commercial farm. Novel influenza A viruses can emerge by mixing different viral strains in a host susceptible to avian and human influenza strains. 

Studies show that emus are susceptible to infections from a wide range of influenza viral subtypes, including H5N1 and the pandemic H1N1. The emu's internal organs and tissues express abundant cell surface sialic acid receptors that favour the attachment of avian and human influenza viruses, increasing the potential for internal genetic reassortment and the emergence of novel influenza A viruses. 

This review summarises the historical context of H7N7 in Australia, considers the potential for increased virulence and pathogenesis through mutations and draws attention to the emu as potentially an unrecognised viral mixing vessel.

See also; [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H7N7[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H7N7 ; 

In 2003, 89 people in the Netherlands were confirmed to have been infected by H7N7 following an outbreak in poultry on approximately 255 farms. One death was recorded - a veterinarian who had been testing chickens for the virus - and all infected flocks were culled. Most affected people had mild symptoms including conjunctivitis.^[1][2] Antibodies were found in over half of 500 people tested according to the final official report by the Dutch government:

As at least 50% of the people exposed to infected poultry had H7 antibodies detectable with the modified assay, it was estimated that avian influenza A/H7N7 virus infection occurred in at least 1000, and perhaps as many as 2000 people. The seroprevalence of H7 antibodies in people without contact with infected poultry, but with close household contact to an infected poultry worker, was 59%. This suggests that the population at risk for avian influenza was not limited to those with direct contact to infected poultry, and that person to person transmission may have occurred on a large scale.^[3] Final analysis of Dutch avian influenza outbreaks reveals much higher levels of transmission to humans than previously thought

DJ Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) is a very major concern...lots of types in other animals close to "exploding"...ignoring the risks is the best basis for a next pandemic (on top of this one).

-Dr. John Campbell on schools and Covid [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhZuziTJxIg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhZuziTJxIg ; Marin County, California, May 19, under 12s 

One teacher, not vaccinated, feeling fatigued with some nasal congestion 

Worked on, toot of mask for class reading Air filter, windows open on two walls 6 feet between desks 

Learned she was positive two days later 12 of 24 had been infected 6 symptomatic, 6 asymptomatic 

Mostly in the two rows closest to her desk 

Outbreak spread to other classes Siblings and parents, including some who were fully vaccinated 

Tracy Lam-Hine, epidemiologist for the county everyone lets their guard down — but the thing is delta takes advantage of slippage from any kind of protective measures 

Children under 12, ineligible for vaccines

DJ In many countries the "official lie" is still "children do not get very ill" from Covid...the new popular lie is "natural immunity is better than vaccine immunity"....Natural immunity has much higher risks and may still not be effective on the longer term ! So bad choice ! If you can avoid getting infected !!!

Further from Dr. J.C. ; COVID-19 Projections for K12 Schools in Fall 2021: Significant Transmission without Interventions https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.11... 

Without testing and masking R0 = 4.0 

More than 75% of susceptible students get infected within three months in all settings 

With masks, R0 = 2.0 The proportion infected drops to approximately 50% 

Testing further drops infections High, 22% Mid, 16% Low, 13% 

Conclusion Without interventions in place, the vast majority of susceptible students will become infected through the semester. Universal masking can reduce student infections by 26-78%, and biweekly testing along with masking reduces infections by another 50%. 

To prevent new infections in the community, limit school absences, and maintain in-person learning, interventions such as masking and testing must be implemented widely, especially among elementary school settings in which children are not yet eligible for the vaccine. 

DJ Of course since the goal should be to STOP THIS PANDEMIC !!!!! on-line study/work is a better way to limit spread. 

Again "living with the virus" is insane ! This pandemic is going exponential ! The next variants with R0 12 may allready be spreading in lots of places...

(DJ-If I find time I may work on new variants...)

PS-I use add-blockers to get to links...may save a lot of time !

-Music to "close this book for now", sending you all Good Vibrations - Beach Boys - 1967 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdt0SOqPJcg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdt0SOqPJcg 

cn65, I have been thinking about "out-selecting" the milder variants...Before vaccines showed up CDC came with 59% a/presymptomatic spread. Due to vaccines we may now be at 80% (?) a/presymptomatic spread ? Maybe there are "several parallel roads" developing ? 

Vaccine/natural immunity may result in CoViD getting almost 100% mild ? It is one of my "hopes"...We simply may not know enough of how this Corona Viral Disease is working out in the longer run...

[url]https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-94-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-22-july-2020/sage-94-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-22-july-2021[/url] or https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-94-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-22-july-2020/sage-94-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-22-july-2021 ; 43. Although unlikely in the short term, in the long term it is a realistic possibility that variants will arise that are more transmissible but with reduced virulence. This reduced virulence, along with high population immunity, could eventually lead to the virus causing a much less severe disease.

DJ SAGE-UK has this option as "unlikely" but not impossible...

I'm thinking that with every new variant ( depending on how it resists current vaccine's),just as we do with the flu,we will have to have boosters,maybe Delta's as bad as it gets ???

That's wishful thinking....

Take care all 😷😉💉

KiwiMum I hope you had no earthquake problems...M6,3 Kermadec Islands [url]https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000f60j/executive[/url] or https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000f60j/executive ...I do NOT like the global high seismic activity !

While "Ida" is still causing massive problems in the US "Larry" is forming west of Africa...[url]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5[/url] or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 "Larry" may soon become a hurricane but may stay at the Atlantic the coming week...

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/08/how-the-cia-used-isis-k-to-stay-in-its-afghanistan-business.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/08/how-the-cia-used-isis-k-to-stay-in-its-afghanistan-business.html US-CIA links with IS, alquaida..."usefull terrorists" against Russia-Iran-China getting out of control paid for by CIA drugtrade...

This as the background for the worsening pandemic. Both the pandemic, and the coronavirus should not have been a surprise. We all know SARS-1, MERS...so why SARS-2 "was unexpected" , "had to come from a lab"...? 

DJ, 

Booster vaccines soon may show "limited use" (or even growing ADE risk) new variants may evade the vaccine or use the vaccine reaction; somehow hijacking the immune system to help infections. The human factor is there is a limit to how much vaccines people are willing to take !

Delta has a R0 of between 5 and 8 I understand...next dominant variant. It looks like linked to "older" variants-India, South Africa...Brazil, Colombia, Peru may also show up, Philippines-P3...all countries with low level of vaccinations, testing, hardly any sequencing...the main reason Africa does not show up much in pandemic news is a total lack of testing/sequencing...with mega cities like Kinshassa, Lagos, Caïro transport of variants is not the problem...enough hosts...both human and non-human...just like in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia...

Are we running out of possible variants ? No-it may just have started ! Lots of mega-cities with population of 10 million+ ! With one doctor per 100,000 people...The pandemic triangle; disease-host-spread does not need long distance travel in those cities...International air travel "freedom" will spread those variants...

Immuno compromised hosts are a major factor in seeing lots of mutations during a long time illness. In "countries we keep poor" those people may not even see a hospital...

Another factor showing up is Health Care Workers (HCW) simply giving up-looking for better safer jobs. The "liberal" governments (no problem starting wars-but refugees that result from these crimes are unwelcome...Their "freedom" is not linked to a sense of responsibility...it is populist blagh-blagh still getting lots of votes...They create crisis to show leadership-like a fireman starting his own fires...).

Maybe a sign of hope could be more people getting aware of how bad politics created this pandemic, start blame-games, push zillions to their big pharma sponsors...Wars, pandemics...good for bussinesses, shares...

Since things are hardly ever "right or wrong" - Yes better big pharma vaccines may make a difference ! But till they are real, can be used, we need to decrease the spread !

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Reported global cases 520, 352-of them 119, 642 came from the US-monday testing...Global deaths 7,584..792 of them from Russia. 

Trends global cases -0,2%, deaths -2% however North America cases +2%, deaths +7%, Europe cases -2%, deaths +8%, Oceania cases -36%, deaths +4% of them Australia cases +45% deaths 0% (18 last/this week...) New Zealand reporting this week 465 new cases, 128 cases last week +263%...At the start NZ had hopes to keep numbers under the 150 in total...

Asia cases +4%, deaths -6%; India cases +46%, deaths +20% indicating Delta+ variant exploding ? 

China is reporting cases -14%, last week 222 cases, this week 190 also 0 deaths...Of course you may question Chinese numbers. I take them serious-I believe with massive door-to-door testing it is possible to detect a/presymptomatic cases in an early stage. In that way limiting both spread and death...

I think Chinese strategy is doing much better in "saving the economy" then the "liberal-living with the virus" (piling up bodies) lack-of-strategy ! Yes it is expensive to test ALL of the 11 million people living in Wuhan twice in a week ! China did it ! And by keeping numbers down is doing that much better then "pseudo-liberal" countries with bizarre discussions on who should wear masks when in schools while Delta is exploding among school children...

With a high level of testing, restrictions in regions with spread, a good level of vaccinations, sequencing we may be able to get out of this pandemic before 2022 ! If we are not doing that-politics again fail ! 

-Flutrackers

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latest; new potentially dangerous variant
C.1.2

https://twitter.com/mvankerkhove/sta...03717018603529
To date there are ~100 sequences of C.1.2 reported globally, the earliest
reports from May ‘21 from South Africa.

4 of these at cog_uk, from 2021-06-21,2021-06-27,2021-07-28,2021-08-20

_lots_ of spike mutations, including these worrying ones
vaccines escapes immunity escapes
4,P9L 3,P25L 4,C136F 4,R190S
4,D215G
1,N440K 4,Y449H 1,T478K 4,E484K
4,N501Y 2,L585F
4,D614G 4,H655Y 3,N679K 1,P681H
4,T716I
4,T859N
1,D936N 1,D936H

43,42,48,41 mutations in total

here a picture from a paper from March with the concerning positions :

http://magictour.free.fr/bloom4.png

DJ Whatever name it may get this variant, and a Delta-variantion a.o. spreading in the UK, India may show to be the new variants. With the vaccine/natural immune escape mutations vaccines may offer not the protection they used to offer. That does not mean they will become total useless in the short term it underlines again the need to STOP THE SPREAD !!!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922753-cidrap-us-tops-100-000-daily-covid-19-hospital-cases[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922753-cidrap-us-tops-100-000-daily-covid-19-hospital-cases ; For only the second time during the 18 months America has been battling COVID-19, the country reached 100,000 daily hospitalizations due to infection with the virus, matching the previous record seen last winter.

In several states, the fourth wave, or summer surge caused by the Delta (B1617.2) variant, has led to hospital bed and healthcare worker shortages. Intensive care units (ICUs) have reached capacity in places such as Georgia, Mississippi and Florida. In those states, elective surgeries have been put on hold.

DJ Was it "caused by the Delta (B1617.2) variant" or stupid politicians making criminal choices ? From no need for masks if you are vaccinated to no salary if your schools make masks mandatory....In the article also ; 

• A growing number of states are rolling out digital vaccine passports developed by a consortium of health and technology companies, according to Politico. California, New York, and Louisiana are among the states deploying the technology, and at least half a dozen other states are considering it.
• Despite no evidence of effectiveness in treating COVID-19, prescriptions for the antiparasitic drug ivermectin have jumped to more than 88,000 per week, up from 3,600 per week pre-pandemic, the New York Times reports.

DJ In Europe we have a (digital) vaccine passport that can be used-by now-almost worldwide...We also have cheap self-tests used on a massive scale, easy to get-easy to use...The less welcome part of it-just like with vaccines-people may believe they are in control. Testing positive is NOT a cure ! 

With oxygen getting a problem in parts of the US-storm "Ida" causing major problems in logistics-turning to Ivermectin I can understand. But only under medical supervision !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922752-cidrap-covid-19-surges-in-parts-of-asia-levels-rise-in-europe[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922752-cidrap-covid-19-surges-in-parts-of-asia-levels-rise-in-europe ; Philippines, Vietnam, Japan battle record levels

The Philippines, which is experiencing a third surge that began early this month, on Aug 28 reported a record high of more than 19,000 cases, according to Reuters. The country's president, Rodrigo Duterte, extended restrictions in the Manila area and some hot spot provinces.
About one third of the latest cases are from the area around Manila, but high numbers were reported form nine provinces and six cities.
Meanwhile, Vietnam—which had successfully contained earlier spikes—is struggling, like many countries, to curb the more transmissible Delta (B1617.2) variant. Cases continue at near record-high numbers, with the highest in three main industrial hubs in the southern part of the country, according to VN Express, an online newspaper based in Hanoi.
In Japan, where cases in its third wave remain near record daily highs, two people died after they were vaccinated with vaccine from lots that were suspended due to contamination with particulate matter, according to Reuters. The health ministry said the people who died were men in their 30s and that investigations into the cause of their deaths is still underway.
Yesterday the health ministry said most of the foreign material in the Moderna doses in Okinawa was fragments of rubber stoppers from the vials, according to the Japan Times.
Europe sees mixed picture, vaccination stagnation

At a briefing today, Hans Henri Kluge, MD, MPH, who directs the World Health Organization (WHO) European regional office, said 33 countries reported a more than 10% rise in COVID-19 cases over the past 2 weeks. "This high transmission is deeply worrying – particularly in the light of low vaccination uptake in priority populations in a number of countries," he said.
Kluge also warned that a number of countries are seeing more hospitalizations and deaths, which increased 11% in the region last week. He added that one reliable group projects 236,000 deaths in Europe by Dec 1.
Growth in COVID activity is driven by the more transmissible Delta variant, the easing of restrictions, and more travel, he noted.
Regarding vaccination, the pace of immunization has slowed over the past 6 weeks, partly due to supply and partly due to lack of acceptance. In Europe's lower- and middle-income countries, only 6% of the population is fully vaccinated.

Researchers detail C.1.2 variant

A team of researchers from South Africa, writing in the preprint server medRxiv, recently described a new variant of interest called C.1.2, which they said has mutations seen in variants of concern that have been linked to increased transmissibility and reduced neutralization. They also noted other mutations that could impact neutralization and replication fitness.
The virus evolved from one of the lineages that dominated South Africa's first wave. So far, the variant has been found in six of nine South African provinces, as well as in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mauritius, New Zealand, Portugal, and Switzerland.
Though the characteristics and epidemiology of the virus are still being defined, they said it's important to track the lineage, given its concerning group of mutations.
On Twitter today, Maria Van Kerkhove, PhD, the World Health Organization's (WHO's) technical lead for COVID-19, said the more the virus circulates, the more opportunity it has to change. She said the WHO has been in regular touch with South African researchers who have been sequencing the virus and that they first briefed the WHO on their C.1.2 variant findings in July.
So far, about 100 C.1.2 sequences have been reported globally since May. The variant so far doesn't appear to be increasing in circulation, but more sequencing and samples are needed. "Delta appears dominant from available sequences," she added.

More global headlines

• In Afghanistan, the first air bridge flight arrived today with medical supplies, the first such shipment since the Taliban took over, according to a statement from the WHO. The flight touched down at the airport in Mazar-i-Sharif, the country's fourth largest city, which is located in the north. Pakistan provided the plane, which was loaded in Dubai.
• Australia's main hot spot, New South Wales state, reported a record 1,290 new cases today. Meanwhile, New Zealand's cases continued climbing at a steady pace with 83 new cases, as the country investigates a myocarditis death in a person who had recently been immunized with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.
• The global total today rose to 216,506,898 cases, with at least 4,500,884 deaths, according to the New York Times tracker.

DJ, Over 4,5 million deaths so far with very likely 5 million deaths before 2022. In official numbers...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922736-demand-surges-for-deworming-drug-for-covid-despite-scant-evidence-it-works-prescriptions-for-ivermectin-have-jumped-to-more-than-88-000-per-week[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922736-demand-surges-for-deworming-drug-for-covid-despite-scant-evidence-it-works-prescriptions-for-ivermectin-have-jumped-to-more-than-88-000-per-week ; August 30, 2021 at 12:37 pm EDT
By Jared Leone

CINCINNATI — An Ohio judge has ordered hospital doctors to administer a prescribed dose of ivermectin, typically used to treat livestock for parasites, to a patient infected with COVID-19.

Butler County Judge Gregory Howard ordered doctors at West Chester Hospital to “immediately administer ivermectin” to Jeffrey Smith, WCPO reported.

Smith’s wife sued after he was placed on a ventilator for 19 days. During that time, Julie Smith asked a doctor about using ivermectin. The doctor supported the treatment and prescribed a 30mg dose for 21 days but hospital staff refused to administer it, WLWT reported.

https://www.wpxi.com/news/trending/c...J7OSIQL6GU3EU/

DJ There are lots of claims on Ivermectin...It would protect against infection...but the picture is simply not very clear ! If it was a wonder drug (from Merck-of course willing to make a profit ! And some profit may be acceptable!) it would have shown by now-I think. Ivermectin ALWAYS should be used under medical supervision !!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/922738-new-covid-19-variant-c-1-2-sparking-international-concern[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/922738-new-covid-19-variant-c-1-2-sparking-international-concern ;DJ We may need to learn more on this development, but also on the UK/India Delta-changes with increasing numbers...Good communications may prevent panic. 

See/read (!!!) also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/922727-preprint-the-continuous-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-in-south-africa-lineage-c-1-2[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/922727-preprint-the-continuous-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-in-south-africa-lineage-c-1-2 DJ-What we know so far !

-I was hoping there would be some video's on the new variants in the old (SA/India or Beta/Delta) variants...but maybe even [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 may find it hard to get a view....

SABC [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ly23TQpyd00[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ly23TQpyd00 ; Discussing new mutation of the Covid-19 virus circulating in SA; Prof Tulio Oliveira ;

A new mutation of the COVID-19 virus is circulating in South Africa. According to new research published this week, the C.1.2 lineage was first detected in Mpumalanga and Gauteng in May this year. It has since been detected in seven of the nine provinces, and other countries like Botswana,  DRC, Mauritius, New Zealand, Portugal, and Switzerland. We are joined by Prof Tulio Oliveira, Director of KRISP at the University of KwaZulu-Natal. For more news, visit sabcnews.com and also #SABCNews #Coronavirus #COVID19News #Covid-19Vaccination #Vaccine on Social Media.

Music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwLUkcNnU6A[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwLUkcNnU6A Unforgettable Nat King&Natalie Cole remix...

Sorry, cannot hold my tongue in my hands on this one: what kind of knucklehead is surprised when a virus churns out variants?  It's what they do!  (Facepalm)

I do not believe Fauci changed his story.  I believe he played the odds against a wily opponent.  And when the opponent got more wily, Dr. Fauci had to change his strategy.  It doesn't help that that basically he has been asked to make work the unworkable, and defend the indefensible.

ViQueen24-I agree with you that Fauci was in an impossible position at the start. Still "communications" is a job on its own. Experts may be good in some expertises, but communication is a different job...

More wider-lots of institutions-worldwide-keep underestimating this pandemic. People were willing to get vaccinated (in some European countries up to 80/90% of the 12+ y/o = no discussion on mandatory vaccinations here !)  expecting that would end this pandemic. 

They now face cases going up-another lockdown-more strict-is just a matter of time !

One of the more recent major mistakes was reopening because 50%+  of all (US) adults were vaccinated...with Delta R0 between 5 and 8 and experts warning you need both vaccines AND restrictions if you want the R0 to get under 1...stop the spread ! 

Vaccinations limit the spread but that effect was undone, in vain, when you give up all the restrictions !

If indeed 59% of US cases by now are AY.4/Delta+ [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?loc=USA&pango=AY.4&selected=USA[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?loc=USA&pango=AY.4&selected=USA  the R0 may be even higher...make more restrictions urgent !

DJ

We seem to be getting more variations in variants...Delta may have several Delta+ "family". The SA variant has some new variations. The Colombia-"Mu" variant may be a mix of several other variants...Wath they all may bring is R0 moving up above 8 !

New variations within older variants bringing both more spread and more severe disease (often via higher viral load). 

"Living with the variant"-as some "experts"promote is not a realistic option ! Variants going exponential, pandemic increasing in infectiousness means we are on our way to more immunity evading variants...

You can not survive climate "change" you have to stop that collapse ! Also you have to stop these variants-go for zero Covid- or face "living with a worsening pandemic"...Booster vaccines may have use now-increase protection (Israel study). But that protection does not last long enough, good enough !

Also "natural immunity" does not offer enough protection against newer variants...So STOP THE SPREAD !!!

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

Global cases september 2 were 678,902, deaths 10,653. 

The US did see-with limited testing-177,568 new cases, 1,565 deaths reported...

The UK 38, 154 new cases, 178 deaths...

Israel 10,006 cases, 36 deaths...

Any "politician" or "expert" calling this high level of suffering acceptable should work a 24hr shift at an ICU !

Trends [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table cases -3%, deaths -6% worldwide...for now. 

US cases/deaths both +5%, India cases alarming +23% is there a new Delta+ variant exploding in India ? -deaths still at -7%...not looking good at all ! 

UK cases -0,7%, deaths +1%, Israel cases +16%, deaths 0% (both weeks 185 deaths=high !) One would expect more from vaccinations...so increase is due to; lifting restrictions, reopening schools/workplaces, newer variants, limited vaccinations. 

Here in NL most hospital/ICU cases (still) in the unvaccinated groups. About 50% of them with a "non-western" background. Also orthodox christians are overrepresented...A small (less then 10%) but violent group of deniers also problematic in hospitals...because Covid "does not exist" doctors "make the wrong diagnoses"...etc...."Learning the hard way" the group of deniers may "get smaller" the "natural way" (+catch the virus they claim is not there...) 

-Flutrackers latest;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922916-cidrap-fda-sets-date-for-covid-19-vaccine-booster-meeting[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922916-cidrap-fda-sets-date-for-covid-19-vaccine-booster-meeting ; The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced that its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBAC) will meet on Sep 17 to discuss COVID-19 vaccine third doses and specifically address the Pfizer-BioNTech supplemental Biologics License Application for administration of a third dose of that vaccine.

DJ "Living with the virus" is living with booster vaccines. Soon those vaccines may come as nasal spray, pills, no needles needed...It will buy time but simply is NOT the answer !!! Variants may go much faster then vaccines...We may have "improved vaccines" against "Delta" by the time "Mu" is the problem...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922915-cidrap-healthcare-associated-infections-rose-in-2020-cdc-says[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922915-cidrap-healthcare-associated-infections-rose-in-2020-cdc-says ; A new study by researchers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that, after years of decline, US hospitals saw significant increases in healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) in 2020, largely as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Published today in Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology, the analysis of National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) data from acute care hospitals in 12 states found that rates of central-line–associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs), catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTIs), and ventilator-associated events (VAEs) saw significant increases in 2020 compared with 2019, particularly in the second half of the year.

There was also a significant rise in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) bacteremia.

Prior to 2020, rates of HAIs in US hospitals had been declining since 2015, a decrease that has been attributed to improved infection prevention and control measures. But the surge of COVID-19 patients in 2020—and the diversion of hospital staff and resources to focus on care of those patients—clearly put a dent in those efforts.

DJ Hospitals have healthrisks, medical interventions never are free of risks...So you have to limit the influx ! 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922909-cidrap-study-vaccines-slash-long-haul-covid-hospital-rates[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922909-cidrap-study-vaccines-slash-long-haul-covid-hospital-rates ; The odds of long COVID-19 fall by more than half after two doses of vaccine, the risk of hospitalization drops by more than two-thirds, and breakthrough infections are nearly twice as likely to be asymptomatic, according to a UK study yesterday in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.

-

Risk factors tied to breakthrough COVID-19 infection after the first vaccine dose included frailty in adults 60 years and older (odds ratio [OR], 1.93) and residence in areas of high deprivation (OR, 1.11). Body mass index less than 30 kg/m² (nonobesity) was associated with lower odds of infection after the first dose (OR, 0.84).
The odds of hospitalization fell by about 70% after one or two doses, the chances of severe disease (having five or more symptoms in the first week of illness) dropped by about one-third, and the likelihood of having long COVID-19 (symptoms for at least 28 days after infection) was halved.

-

"Breakthrough infections are expected and don't diminish the fact that these vaccines are doing exactly what they were designed to do—save lives and prevent serious illness," she said. "We can greatly reduce that number by keeping people out of the hospital in the first place through vaccination.
"Our findings highlight the crucial role vaccines play in larger efforts to prevent COVID-19 infections, which should still include other personal protective measures such as mask-wearing, frequent testing, and social distancing."
The elevated risk of breakthrough infections among participants living in deprived areas could be due to factors such as crowded housing and lower vaccinations rates, the researchers said.

DJ Vaccines are "good news" in this pandemic, still offer good (80/90%) protection against severe disease, around 50% against infection and "long Covid" ....However vaccine protection could be strong enough for 6-12 months...Variants further develop-will find ways to increase evading immunity ! You have to go for "Zero-Covid" !!! There is no alternative !!!

Counting/testing cases-contact tracing are essential to limit this pandemic. Giving up on such tools is worsening the healthcrisis-resulting in further-massive-loss of lives ! Unacceptable !!! (Still the "stategy" of some countries/experts...)https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922874-they-re-called-mild-cases-but-people-with-breakthrough-covid-can-still-feel-pretty-sick[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922874-they-re-called-mild-cases-but-people-with-breakthrough-covid-can-still-feel-pretty-sick ; 
"The vaccine appears to have worked to protect my lungs, so that kept me from having life-threatening symptoms, but at the same time, a so-called mild course can be . . . sort of the sickest I've ever been in my life," said Kinsey, who is 38 and lives with his wife and three children in Pennsylvania. "It's important for people to know that what they picture in their head of a bad cold isn't necessarily what will actually happen even if they get a mild course."...

DJ Also after vaccination getting infected may result in "long CoViD"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922875-israeli-study-finds-strong-correlation-between-breakthrough-covid-19-cases-and-antibody-levels[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922875-israeli-study-finds-strong-correlation-between-breakthrough-covid-19-cases-and-antibody-levels DJ "link in link"=[url]https://themedialine.org/life-lines/israeli-study-finds-strong-correlation-between-breakthrough-covid-19-cases-and-antibody-levels/[/url] or https://themedialine.org/life-lines/israeli-study-finds-strong-correlation-between-breakthrough-covid-19-cases-and-antibody-levels/ ; 

In a world first, an Israeli study has uncovered a strong correlation between breakthrough COVID-19 infections and neutralizing antibody levels in vaccinated individuals.

The study, which was published in the New England Journal of Medicine on Wednesday, was led by Professor Gili Regev-Yochay, director of the Infectious Diseases Unit at Sheba Medical Center, Israel’s largest hospital.

Regev-Yochay presented the findings at a news conference on Wednesday.

“It turns out that if your antibody levels are high, you are more protected” against infection, she told reporters. “If they are low, then you are less protected.”

In addition, those with lower levels of neutralizing antibodies were found to be more likely to infect others.

DJ not a big surprise...It would be welcome to study how good vaccinations result in high enough level of antibodies for how long..How many people do not get the expected immune reaction after vaccinations ? And for what reasons ? (If you get vaccinated-but not vaccince immunity then getting infected is not a "break through" infection...). 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922876-in-a-ma%C2%ADjor-blow-to-vac%C2%ADcine-ef%C2%ADforts-2-most-se%C2%ADnior-vac%C2%ADcine-lead%C2%ADers-at-the-fda-are-step%C2%ADping-down[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922876-in-a-ma%C2%ADjor-blow-to-vac%C2%ADcine-ef%C2%ADforts-2-most-se%C2%ADnior-vac%C2%ADcine-lead%C2%ADers-at-the-fda-are-step%C2%ADping-down ; Two of the FDA’s most se­nior vac­cine lead­ers are ex­it­ing from their po­si­tions, rais­ing fresh ques­tions about the Biden ad­min­is­tra­tion and the way that it’s side­lined the FDA.

Mar­i­on Gru­ber, di­rec­tor of the FDA’s Of­fice of Vac­cines Re­search & Re­view and 32-year vet­er­an of the agency, will leave at the end of Oc­to­ber, and OVRR deputy di­rec­tor Phil Krause, who’s been at FDA for more than a decade, will leave in No­vem­ber. The news, first re­port­ed by Bio­Cen­tu­ry, is a mas­sive blow to con­fi­dence in the agency’s abil­i­ty to reg­u­late vac­cines.
The bomb­shell an­nounce­ment comes at a par­tic­u­lar­ly cru­cial mo­ment, as boost­ers and chil­dren’s shots are be­ing weighed by the reg­u­la­tor. The de­par­tures al­so come as the ad­min­is­tra­tion has re­cent­ly jumped ahead of the FDA’s re­views of boost­er shots, an­nounc­ing that they might be avail­able by the week of Sept. 20.

A for­mer se­nior FDA leader told End­points that they’re de­part­ing be­cause they’re frus­trat­ed that CDC and their ACIP com­mit­tee are in­volved in de­ci­sions that they think should be up to the FDA. The for­mer FDAer al­so said he’s heard they’re up­set with CBER di­rec­tor Pe­ter Marks for not in­sist­ing that those de­ci­sions should be kept in­side FDA. What fi­nal­ly did it for them was the White House get­ting ahead of FDA on boost­er shots...

DJ Several institutions want to be the one that decides strategy...We see that kind of "competition" in NL as well...very likely to show up-at some time-in many countries.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/surveillance-and-epidemic-control/922897-the-scientist-the-long-journey-to-resolve-the-origins-of-a-previous-pandemic[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/surveillance-and-epidemic-control/922897-the-scientist-the-long-journey-to-resolve-the-origins-of-a-previous-pandemic ; Rumors began to circulate that the virus, which was spreading rapidly among humans through contact and aerosols, was engineered by human hands. The CDC scoffed, but the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that it was seriously investigating a memo sent to the organization by Australian biologist Adrian Gibbs who laid out his evidence for why the virus was not of a natural origin but rather had leaked from a laboratory performing genetic experiments for vaccine production. Gibbs was considered a credible scientist who had participated in the development of the Roche anti-influenza drug Tamiflu. Scientists and public health officials shuddered. A manmade pandemic virus was the last thing the world needed. Years of progress against vaccine-preventable diseases had already been undone by British doctor Andrew Wakefield’s falsified autism-MMR link, which would not be retracted for another year, fully 12 years after its publication.

DJ-Mexican Flu of 2009...It will take years-if not decades-to get a realistic view on how CoViD-19 did start-with corona-viral diseases in animals widespread !

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sk4UoAkLaDU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sk4UoAkLaDU ; Risks following infection versus vaccination; 

For every 10 million people vaccinated with the AstraZeneca An extra 107 would be hospitalised or die from thrombocytopenia (1 in 93,459) 

9 times lower than the risk following an infection An extra 66 would be hospitalised or die from blood clots in the veins Nearly 200 times lower than the risk following an infection

For every 10 million people vaccinated with the Pfizer An extra 143 extra strokes would be seen (1 in 69,930) 12 times lower than the risk following an infection 

Myocarditis and pericarditis Chest pain, shortness of breath, or feelings of having a fast-beating, fluttering, or pounding heart ;

52 million doses to 12–29 years 1,226 reports of myocarditis after mRNA vaccination 42,414 One in 42,414 

Data demonstrate increased risks, particularly within the seven days following the second dose The observed risk is higher among males under 40 years of age compared to females and older males Risk is highest in males 12 through 17 years of age

DJ Vaccines/vaccinations are not free of risks-with billions of people being vaccinated it may be realistic to claim thousends died from vaccination. But without those vaccines we would see millions more people dead from the virus ! 

If there are known risks people will NOT get vaccinated !!! (By any good health standard !). Good enough communications can get 80/90% of 12 y/o+ people willing to get vaccinated ! 

Again-even with "just" 50% protection against infection most vaccines (the 50% may be for the mRNA vaccines) still do a great job !!!

However it is wrong to claim we can "vaccinate" ourselves out of this pandemic ! Vaccines are just one part of a much wider-time consuming-strategy !But it looks like we will find out such in a hard way !!

-BPEarthwatch [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50T_XfKsxoA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50T_XfKsxoA on "Ida", West US wildfires, Atlantic storms...DJ-Flooding after Ida killed over 45 in NYC area...There were warnings that may not have reached the public...(maybe advertizing was more important then warnings ???) 

"Larry" may stay on the Atlantic touch Canada next weekend ? 

-Music; Abba-I still have faith in you-computer made 2021...[ur]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAzEY1MfXrQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAzEY1MfXrQ ..Maybe The Beatles can reunite this way again...nice to see old pictures from Abba-members...

DJ, 

Yesterday there was news Cuba starting to vaccinate children from the age of 2...Today [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/virus-czar-calls-to-begin-readying-for-eventual-4th-vaccine-dose/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/virus-czar-calls-to-begin-readying-for-eventual-4th-vaccine-dose/ Israel is planning a fourth booster vaccination...; 

“Given that that the virus is here and will continue to be here, we also need to prepare for a fourth injection,” Salman Zarka told Kan public radio.

He did not specify when fourth vaccine shots could eventually be administered.

DJ Worldwide still a very serious problem in getting "vaccines into arms"....Even if there are vaccines at the airport-it can almost be impossible to get the vaccines much further in a way the vaccines stay good, usefull. Logistics is a problem-on top of availability...

Another point is [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlxFfiJsEfM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlxFfiJsEfM Dr. John Campbell is claiming Delta+ is "not yet widespread"-though seen in many countries (and will have good sources for that !). [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant ; 

Delta with K417N corresponds to lineages AY.1 and AY.2^[47] and has been nicknamed "Delta plus" or "Nepal variant".^[48] It has the K417N mutation^[49] which is also present in the Beta variant.^[50] The exchange at position 417 is a lysine-to-asparagine substitution.^[51]

As of late July 2021, the AY.3 variant accounted for approximately 15% of cases in the United States

DJ AY.3/Delta+ at 15% in the US in my eyes IS a problem...[url]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html#Concern[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html#Concern the CDC allready has AY.1 till AY.12....; 

WHO Label:  Delta

Pango Lineage: B.1.617.2, AY.1, AY.2, AY.3, AY.4, AY.5, AY.6, AY.7, AY.8, AY.9, AY.10, AY.11, AY.12 (Pango lineageexternal icon)^a

Spike Protein Substitutions: T19R, (V70F*), T95I, G142D, E156-, F157-, R158G, (A222V*), (W258L*), (K417N*), L452R, T478K, D614G, P681R, D950N

Name (Nextstrainexternal icon)^b: 21A/S:478K

First Identified: India

Attributes:

• Increased transmissibility ²⁹
• Potential reduction in neutralization by some EUA monoclonal antibody treatments ^{7, 14}
• Potential reduction in neutralization by post-vaccination sera ²¹

DJ [url]https://cov-lineages.org/global_report_B.1.617.2.html[/url] or https://cov-lineages.org/global_report_B.1.617.2.html (Delta and Delta+=B.1.617.2   ); I am getting lost...I did see somewere AY.4 was widespread in the US...[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports has AY.1 to AY.22 with also AY.3.1, AY.5.1. even AY.7.1 and AY.7.2....

DJ [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected AY.4 is 3% of US cases but 34% of UK cases...9% of global cases....

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.3&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.3&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected AY.3 is 5% of US cases, 1% of global cases....(so not the 15% Wikipedia puts it...because Delta+ is being split up in a growing number of sub variants due to several sorts of mutations...)

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.5&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.5&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected AY.5 is 2% of UK cases, 1% of global cases...

My point is Delta+ has been split up in that many sub variants (Outbreak now allready has 27 of them !) only experts may be able to get the picture....

-(Other) numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ global cases;

483,143, deaths 7,909...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/ India numbers may be increasing again...with several Delta+ variants showing up in different regions ? India trends cases +15%, deaths -16%....

Israel cases up +25%, deaths -3% (188 last week, 182 this week...) even with booster vaccines ???

Since I am not an expert I can ask all kind of questions without having to find the answer....[url]https://www.dw.com/en/covid-why-are-infections-rising-in-israel/a-58887131[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/covid-why-are-infections-rising-in-israel/a-58887131 "Delta"-but it may be a cluster of several forms of Delta+.....

US cases +3%, deaths +9% - Canada cases +20%, deaths +15%....Mexico cases -18%, deaths +5%...has there been a wave from south to north ? 

I need another coffee !

-Flutrackers latest posts; 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/923031-cureus-a-case-series-of-sars-cov-2-and-influenza-co-infection[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/923031-cureus-a-case-series-of-sars-cov-2-and-influenza-co-infection ; 

Right now, we don't know how common coinfections with COVID and Influenza (and other respiratory viruses) are likely to be.

While COVID tests are readily available, and many clinics and doctors can perform a RIDT (Rapid Influenza Detection Test), most people won't be offered a comprehensive respiratory panel test unless, and until, they are hospitalized.

All of which means that if winter respiratory viruses finally do return - and if they circulate alongside COVID - we could find ourselves entering an entirely new, and potentially more challenging, stage of this pandemic.

DJ With societies opening up (for now) we may see more flu cases...even a high level of vaccination will not stop an increase of Covid-variant cases...A mix of them is very bad news ! There have been all kinds of limited High Pathogenic Avian Influenza cases around the world [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza ....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923030-us-florida-the-rising-death-toll-in-florida-caused-by-covid-19-is-overwhelming-funeral-homes-in-the-tampa-bay-area-september-3-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923030-us-florida-the-rising-death-toll-in-florida-caused-by-covid-19-is-overwhelming-funeral-homes-in-the-tampa-bay-area-september-3-2021 DJ-Failing politics (in part due to christian-taliban) is making matters much worse....

Pseudo-religion to grab power should be exposed ! It is okay if people want to believe in a "super being" but that does not give them any right to see themselves as "superbeing" enslaving others ! 

-Other news;

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nMkkZQriRo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nMkkZQriRo In2thinair trying to make sense of hurricane-season. [url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/[/url] or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ ;

In2ThinAir; WHAT A MESS! The northeast has not seen a storm like this in many many years and chances are this will be a cycle for at least a few years just like it was in the 1930's then again in the 1960's...  WITH THAT SAID we have 2 possible Hurricanes forming IN THE GULF almost at the same time in Mindy then Nicholas!  We will track BOTH including Larry until it is no longer a threat to land!

DJ NHC puts risks for "Mindy" getting a storm within 5 days now at 30%..."Nicolas" is only showing up-yet-in models/calculations..."Larry" so far seems to be a risk for the extreme east of Canada...

The point with "scenario's" is you try to look a bit further over the horizon...in a realistic way.  For hurricanes in september-looking at history-YES very likely to be more storms !

For this pandemic-looking at history-the nearby future has to deal with several variants, reopening schools/workplaces/society, less restrictions, autumn/fall...translating to Disease may get more infectious, Hosts may have limited vaccine protection with more exposure and Spread increasing...Other choices were not made (to decrease exposure via restrictions, decrease spread by reducing travel) so this pandemic will get worse again...Governments pushing for more (booster) vaccines...more blame-games...maybe even starting yet another war as distraction...[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/09/why-us-plans-for-revenge-in-afghanistan-may-not-succeed.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/09/why-us-plans-for-revenge-in-afghanistan-may-not-succeed.html (also is Ukraine the "next Afghanistan" for NATO ? Because it is not only US foreign policy that did fail...most NATO members did follow the US in making wrong choices...). 

-To end this today update "something else" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0dhM_Doarc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0dhM_Doarc ; New York City can trace back its roots to the free and liberal city of Amsterdam in the 17th century. 

The Wyckoff House is the only house in New York City that is from that period, when the Republic of the Netherlands ruled part of North America. 

The house is one of the most tangible reminders of a period of American history that has largely been forgotten. 

New Amsterdam (1625-1664) was a colony in which people from all over the world used trade to make something better of themselves. 

New Netherland Now is a project that wants to shine a light on this period of American history, which has only recently been uncovered  in its true detail by historians. 

It shows an alternative origin story for the United States full of inspiring lessons and dire warnings.

DJ Part of the house may go back to 1660...underlining the difficulties I find in scenario's [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efQawCuYr2k[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efQawCuYr2k claiming to show the oldest houses in Manhattan does "forget" the Wyckoff House...Because [url]https://wyckoffmuseum.org/[/url] or https://wyckoffmuseum.org/ is in Brooklyn...(see also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wyckoff_House[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wyckoff_House history starts at 1636...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bronck_House[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bronck_House from 1663 ("Jonas" and "Pieter" are Dutch names-but maybe the Bronck family moved to scandinavia because of the 80 year war in NL/religious reasons...refugees show up all over in history ! The Bronx were named after "Bronck"...).

The reason why the US did become a republic in 1776 may have been the Netherlands was a republic at that time...(since 1648 more or less). "Royalty was the rule" at that time. [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsEovGBFAtA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsEovGBFAtA "Nieuw Amsterdam" allready in the Dutch period was very multi cultural...it stayed that way till now. Immigration into the US mostly went via New York...immigrants taking that vision with them further inland...

Stay safe !

Thanks for the link to the estimate of excess deaths from the Economist. 

 3.3 to 4 times greater than the Official figures is a little less than the 'rule-of-thumb' that I have been using of 5 times [I am glad they think the true figure is lower than I was fearing].    But it is still a high number of deaths.

DJ, 

Limited (Labor Day related) news...More countries switching to booster vaccines (often just within a few weeks after claiming they would not do so...). Vaccine/natural immunity passports being used to drop other restrictions...with often not yet 80% of adult population vaccinated-virus spreading in children...

Health Care Workers in some countries going on strike for better pay/working conditions...and "bussiness-oriented/paid" politicians still in denial on this pandemic, climate change etc...

Stop blaming China, non-vaccinated...start blaming "neo-liberal politicians" allowing variants free flights all over the planet because it is "good for the economy"...

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table Global cases -13%, deaths -10%...

US cases -22%, deaths -14%, UK cases however +12%, deaths (only) -2%...NL cases +0,1%, deaths 0%...(42 both weeks=6 per day). Israel cases -14%, deaths -13%...Vaccination strategy at work...most likely lifting of restrictions, reopenings will see numbers in the + much to soon ! 

Australia cases +37%...10,542 this week. New Zealand cases -41%, 465 last week 273 this week. New Zealand may be able to return to "Zero Covid"...A goal limited other countries try to reach-for now. "Living with the virus" means living with mass vaccinations that may never end...see increase of further asymptomatic spread-resulting in ADE..Variant using vaccine immunity to spread...

In my opinion the vaccination strategy did save a lot of lives, buy us time...but (again) "we" wasted that time for party's, vacations...not thinking of better strategies or more knowledge on this pandemic...We may see the end of "vaccination strategy benefits" sooner then "expected"...history keeps repeating itself in a downward spiral.  

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923128-china-routine-covid-19-testing-at-quarantine-hotel-finds-a-new-local-case-at-least-3-streets-closed-management-september-6-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923128-china-routine-covid-19-testing-at-quarantine-hotel-finds-a-new-local-case-at-least-3-streets-closed-management-september-6-2021 ; Epidemic situation of new crown pneumonia in Guangdong Province on September 5, 2021
From 0-24 o'clock on September 4, 1 new local asymptomatic infection was reported in Guangzhou.

DJ China is the only major country going for "Zero-Covid". Massive testing, contact tracing...massive vaccinations (several million vaccinations per day). Very clear strict rules. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918752-iran-reimposes-virus-restrictions-as-delta-variant-spreads-highest-daily-cases[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918752-iran-reimposes-virus-restrictions-as-delta-variant-spreads-highest-daily-cases ; Iran's new restrictions are designed to slow the spread of the highly transmissible delta variant first detected in India, which on Saturday President Hassan Rouhani warned was driving a potential "fifth wave" of infections in the country. Reports of new cases have risen steadily in recent weeks, nearly doubling from from mid-June to early July.

The country has reported a total of 3.2 million infections and 84,627 deaths -- the highest toll in the region.

The spike comes as Iran's vaccine rollout lags, with less than 2 per cent of the population of 84 million fully vaccinated, according to online scientific publication Our World in Data. Iran says it has administered some 6.3 million doses so far. Those shots have mainly come from abroad, including from COVAX, an international initiative meant to distribute vaccines to low- and middle-income countries. Iran also has imported Chinese state-backed Sinopharm vaccines and Russia's Sputnik V vaccine...

DJ Iran did work with Cuba on vaccines...Peru will see a Sputnik-5 factory, Iran may need something similar. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/923115-do-we-need-humans-for-that-job-automation-booms-after-covid[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/923115-do-we-need-humans-for-that-job-automation-booms-after-covid ; Ask for a roast beef sandwich at an Arby’s drive-thru east of Los Angeles and you may be talking to Tori — an artificially intelligent voice assistant that will take your order and send it to the line cooks.

“It doesn’t call sick,” says Amir Siddiqi, whose family installed the AI voice at its Arby’s franchise this year in Ontario, California. “It doesn’t get corona. And the reliability of it is great.”

The pandemic didn’t just threaten Americans’ health when it slammed the U.S. in 2020 -- it may also have posed a long-term threat to many of their jobs. Faced with worker shortages and higher labor costs, companies are starting to automate service sector jobs that economists once considered safe, assuming that machines couldn’t easily provide the human contact they believed customers would demand.

Past experience suggests that such automation waves eventually create more jobs than they destroy, but that they also disproportionately wipe out less skilled jobs that many low-income workers depend on. Resulting growing pains for the U.S. economy could be severe...

DJ Less human hosts at a workspace=less spread...In Dutch supermarkets you often can scan the products you buy, checkout automated...maybe the only human action is super vision (do all products get paid) and cleaning...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/923111-close-encounters-of-the-covid-kind[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/923111-close-encounters-of-the-covid-kind ; 

As a former paramedic (long ago, in a galaxy far away . . .) I've seen these sorts of conditions before - in the middle of winter during a major flu epidemic - but this is typically the `slow' season for EMS calls in Florida.

All of which makes it more important than ever to make an informed decision about where you will go, what you will do, and what precautions you will take during this pandemic.

Aiding in that decision is the COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool, which allows you to select a county, and the size of the gathering (10 to 5000+) you will attend, and calculates your odds of being exposed to at least 1 COVID positive person.

DJ Risks are not equal...if you have the info when you need to go to a supermarket to see wich area has more cases you can try to limit risks...good tool ! (We have info on places, cities, in NL but for privacy reasons not much more detailed. 

-Dr. John Campbell did not (yet) post another video. BPEarthwatch [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaYZyDsJcFY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaYZyDsJcFY another video on the gulf-will there be a storm for the southern US ? "Larry" [url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/[/url] or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ pushing warm air towards Greenland ? 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-why-taliban-still-cant-form-government[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-why-taliban-still-cant-form-government Russia involved in creating a taliban government in Afghanistan...Who could have seen such a scenario just weeks ago ? 

DJ-False hope based on wishfull thinking is now dominant in the "politics-media-experts" elite. I expect we will be in another wave before the end of october...with both Delta+variants and new variants gaining ground. 

Music; Carpenters - I Can Dream, Can't I ? [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3X7xz62Ai0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3X7xz62Ai0 ; "I Can Dream, Can't I?" is a popular song written by Sammy Fain with lyrics by Irving Kahal. The song was published in 1937, included in a flop musical, Right This Way. 

Horizon (1975), is the sixth consecutive platinum-certified album by American musical duo Carpenters. It was recorded at A&M Studios (mainly in Studio "D" using then-state-of-the-art 24-track recording technology, 30 Dolby, and recorded at 30 inches per second). The Carpenters spent many hours experimenting with different sounds, techniques and effects.

Enjoy !

DJ, 

-Numbers; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

US-after labor day weekend-reporting high numbers; 157,759 new cases, 1,700 deaths. Trends cases -9%, deaths -7%...but most of the decrease is the result of much less labor day weekend testing. 

UK 38,975 new cases, 191 deaths...Trends cases +15%, deaths +26%...schools reopening, less restrictions is killing 932 people this week, last week 739 deaths...

Israel 2,637 new cases, 11 deaths...Trends cases -18%, deaths -2%...booster vaccines seem to offer better protection allthough the effects still have to show up since booster vaccination is still ongoing. Maybe the third vaccination also reminded people of the risks ? 

NL 2,781 new cases, 7 deaths. Trends cases +1%, deaths +13%

Global cases 599,983, deaths 9,768, trends cases -9% (labor day-effect) deaths -7%...

DJ NPI/restrictions are more effective then vaccines. Booster vaccines may have better protection but that result can be short lived. 

Vaccines still do a good job in limiting severe cases AND limiting infections (around 50% !). Before vaccines showed up the CDC estimated 59% of the spread was asymptomatic-due to vaccinations asymptomatic spread may now be 80% ? 

"Creating natural immunity" idea may be decreasing; natural immunity does not show to be that effective in Brazil, Israel, UK a.o. a high level of the population was supposed to be infected but got reinfected with new variants. 

Also "mild infection"=even less antibodies, so less natural immunity. What I understand is the general idea that after natural infection vaccination still is needed to give better protection. 

This is a SERIOUS health crisis-not a joke !!!! In a crisis you have to be willing to change the way you behave ! When it is nice weather you can go to the beach, it is unwise to do so when a hurricane is supposed to land there...

Governments have to govern...sometimes it is better to be very clear, even if that may look less friendly ! 

In general the expectation is we will be facing another global healthcrisis within two or three months with ICU at the limit or over capacity, lots of people dying. I rather see action NOW to prevent such a scenario then to see such a scenario getting real-again-and then finally there is public support for restrictions. 

A bit more restrictions now can prevent much more lockdowns etc in a few months...but the discussion is not even there so we will "crash" again...before the end of this year !

Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923276-bihar-vaccinated-doctor-infected-twice-with-covid-and-covid-flu-like-viral-fever-infecting-lots-of-children[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923276-bihar-vaccinated-doctor-infected-twice-with-covid-and-covid-flu-like-viral-fever-infecting-lots-of-children ;

India: Medics worried as inoculated Bihar doctor gets infected with COVID-19 twice
Sample testing ordered to find out which variant of is infecting her
Published: September 07, 2021 20:25Lata Rani, Correspondent

Patna: Medical fraternity in Bihar is worried after a young doctor posted with a prominent government hospital got infected with COVID-19 virus twice despite being fully vaccinated.

Health officials said the young assistant professor in gynaecology oncology currently working with Patna’s Indira Gandhi Institute of Medical Sciences (IGIMS) was vaccinated in January and March this year. But since then, she has tested positive for coronavirus twice, alarming the health authorities.

snip

According to the health authorities, the said doctor first got infected in May during the second wave of the COVID-19 and now, she is again infected. The doctor tested positive for coronavirus on Monday, prompting the authorities to go for contact tracing.

-

Okieman Comment: What is concerning here is that in all likelyhood the first infection was the Delta variant since it was what was causing the wave in May. So, is this second infection something new or different? Meanwhile, there is a surge of Covid/Flu like viral fever cases in Bihar, with lots of children being hospitalized.

-

Sounds like the viral fever is a seasonal phenomenon that occurs annually during the rainy season, however, in the context of COVID, it would be nice to know what it is exactly as it is sending hundreds of kids to hospital in one district.

DJ In India Delta in april was followed with all kinds of Delta+ variants...but other diseases are also still present. Vaccinated in january and march-still getting infected in may is bad ! Better PPE needed (Personal Protection Equipment) ?

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923297-cidrap-us-data-show-child-covid-19-cases-rising-exponentially[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923297-cidrap-us-data-show-child-covid-19-cases-rising-exponentially ; For the first time during the pandemic, children now account for more than one quarter of new weekly US COVID-19 cases, according to the latest report from the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP).
Nearly 252,000 child COVID-19 cases were reported for the week ending Sep 2, the largest number recorded for children during the pandemic, according to the report. Children accounted for 26.8% of reported weekly US cases.
The AAP said this was the largest number of child cases in a week since the pandemic began.

DJ-Children getting infected was seen in april !!!! in India-why it is being ignored ? Reopening schools with unvaccinated young children and limited restrictions is a criminal act. See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923292-cidrap-study-says-alpha-variant-doubled-covid-cases-in-israeli-kids[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923292-cidrap-study-says-alpha-variant-doubled-covid-cases-in-israeli-kids ;
The SARS-CoV-2 Alpha (B117) variant spread faster and more efficiently than previous strains among children 9 years and younger in Israel in late 2020 and early 2021, even amid the concurrent immunization of adults against COVID-19, according to an observational study yesterday in JAMA Network Open.

-

The researchers noted that the rapid spread of Alpha despite the expected mitigating effect of mass vaccination of adults in Israel underscores the importance of making COVID-19 vaccine available for young children. "Nonpharmacologic measures such as lockdown and school closure could not account for the difference in transmission since they were used during both periods," they wrote.
While the authors acknowledged that factors other than Alpha may have contributed to the rapid coronavirus spread, they urged action to protect children. "These findings suggest that health authorities in different regions should anticipate this occurrence and implement measures to reduce spread in young children both in schools and at home," they wrote.

DJ If you want to "control" this pandemic with vaccines you need to vaccinate also younger age groups. Still variants with a R0 of 5+ may need both vaccines AND restrictions to get the R0 under 1...Delta R0 between 5 and 8...Newer variant most likely will have a R0 up to 12 !!! So act now !!!

We may need to increase vaccine production, we may need BOTH booster vaccines AND much more vaccines for countries we keep poor. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/723926-flutrackers-h5n6-cumulative-case-list[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/723926-flutrackers-h5n6-cumulative-case-list DJ H5N6 seems to be increasing this year-may indicate the virus is getting better in jumping from birds into humans. Very concerning !

So far all detected human cases were in China-infection from bird to human. It is likely H5N6 cases also are outside China but missed, lack of testing...so far no human-to-human spread. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N6[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N6 also mentions H5N6 infections showing up-in birds-in the Philippines, this year-april 2021- a 5 y/o boy in Laos did get H5N6 -first detected human case outside China. 

H5N6 could become the next flu pandemic. It may be just a few steps away from the virus becoming better in spreading in other then birds hosts (humans, pigs, etc...)

We need better surveilance now !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923286-story-map-which-way-are-things-going[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923286-story-map-which-way-are-things-going ; To help policy makers, business leaders and the public understand COVID-19 trends, Charlie Frye, Chief Cartographer at Esri, analyzes the week to week changes in active cases. By shifting focus from the highly variable daily changes in active case counts to a weekly perspective, we can see weekly trends emerge. The maps below show data through August 29, 2021.

This arrow map builds on a simple question most people want to know: are things getting better, or worse, in my area? And for how long has it been going this way?

The colored arrow indicates whether new cases of COVID-19 are going upweek to week, or hopefully going down. Purple arrows always point upwards because cases are accelerating. Orange arrows always point down because new cases are slowing down.

snip

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories...dc45d5563212b8

-----------------------------

Okieman Comment: Be sure to zoom into the county you are interested in and click on it. An informational popup will give you additional data.

DJ Of course you need to know more on the history of this pandemic, other pandemics, restrictions, corona-virus in animals...but every bit of info is welcome if it is good info. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream latest; This is a recent summary provided on Dr. Kory's website

Summary of the Evidence for Ivermectin in COVID-19

Ivermectin is an anti-parasite medicine whose discovery won the Nobel Prize in 2015 for its impacts in ridding large parts of the globe of parasitic diseases via the distribution of over 3.7 billion doses within public health campaigns since 1987. Since 2012, numerous in-vitro and in-vivo studies began to report highly potent anti-viral effects of ivermectin against a diverse array of viruses including SARS-CoV-2. Further, increasing anti-inflammatory and immuno-modulating effects are being identified. Our comprehensive narrative review of the “totality of the evidence” supporting ivermectin was published in The American Journal of Therapeutics in April, 2021 where we reviewed data on efficacy from a diverse array of scientific sources beyond just the randomized controlled trial evidence as illustrated in the diagram below.

more...

SUMMARY-OF-THE-EVIDENCE-BASE-FINAL.pdf (covid19criticalcare.com)

DJ If Ivermectin was doing such a good job it most likely would be the dominant form of treatment. My-non expert, limited, impression is that it may show benefits in some area's for some people at some dosages...but repeating the same dosage, for similar groups in some other circumstances did not give the expected results...

If people can get vaccinated-for now-I think vaccination may do a better job ! (But medical studies to see if Ivermectin-in combination with vaccines-decrease infection risks could be welcome...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/923302-cdc-changes-its-definitions-of-vaccine-and-vaccination-to-try-to-make-definitions-fit-the-5-month-covid-shot[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/923302-cdc-changes-its-definitions-of-vaccine-and-vaccination-to-try-to-make-definitions-fit-the-5-month-covid-shot ;

The new definitions tailored to the mandatory 5 month COVID shots that don't give immunity:

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/imz-basics.htm

Immunity no longer needed!

DJ You have to work with the tools you have...Using the tools effective is blocked by politics "saving the economy" making this pandemic much worse. If air travel stopped in january 2020 we would not have had this pandemic !

-Dr. John Campbell - Increased US deaths [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMNVxcpJ4tU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMNVxcpJ4tU ; DJ - One of the growing problems-not only in the US is staff. Allthough a high number of CoViD patients are unvaccinated a growing number is vaccinated-still getting into hospital. Governments failing to have restrictions stopping the spread are frustrating health care...

Most health care workers (often 90%+) allready is vaccinated. Those that are not may have a medical reason for that ! 

Some like to claim HCW-ers "leave their job because of vaccine mandates"...first of all often there is no need for those mandates, second the motivation for a lot of HCW-ers is remarkable ! They love their job ! But they get exhausted, feel ignored by governments pushing for reopenings-resulting in higher numbers !

DJ-Conclusions; I would expect school reopenings to result in higher number of both cases and deaths. Some countries did decrease/stop testing "because of living with the virus ideology"...I do expect soon to be in the worst part of this pandemic so far. 

We are going down in the pandemic spiral ! 

There is limited news on "new variants" but both Delta+ variants, "Mu" and proberbly some others may be at present an increasing, unclear yet, undercurrent. The basis for a next wave is allready there ! And we are not stopping it !

-[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Hw-p1dHTjs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Hw-p1dHTjs Flash Flood warnings Florida-Mindy related but also New Jersey area ! Again after Ida !

Music; The Doors - People Are Strange [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJY8jJkDoMY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJY8jJkDoMY ;

People are strange when you're a stranger 

Faces look ugly when you're alone 

Women seem wicked when you're unwanted 

Streets are uneven when you're down 

When you're strange 

Faces come out of the rain 

When you're strange 

No one remembers your name 

When you're strange 

When you're strange 

When you're strange

I read an article in the British press yesterday saying that the actual figure of health care workers getting vaccinated in hospitals in the Uk was just over 50%, which is remarkably low. The government to too scared of mass resignation to try and insist on mandated vaccines for them.

KiwiMum, a link to the article would be welcome ! 

DJ, 

September 11 will stay a special date; [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_Chilean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_Chilean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat ; 

The 1973 Chilean coup d'état^[5][6] was a military coup in Chile that deposed the Popular Unity government of President Salvador Allende. On 11 September 1973, after an extended period of social unrest and political tension between the opposition-controlled Congress and the socialist President, as well as economic war ordered by U.S President Richard Nixon,^[7] a group of military officers led by General Augusto Pinochet seized power in a coup, ending civilian rule.

The military established a junta that suspended all political activity in Chile and repressed left-wing movements, especially communist and socialist parties and the Revolutionary Left Movement (MIR). Pinochet rose to supreme power within a year of the coup and was formally declared President of Chile in late 1974.^[8] The Nixon administration, which had worked to create the conditions for the coup,^[9][10][11] promptly recognized the junta government and supported it in consolidating power.

-

An Australian Secret Intelligence Service (ASIS) station was established in Chile at the Australian embassy in July 1971 at the request of the CIA and authorised by then Liberal Party Foreign Minister William McMahon. Newly elected Labor Prime Minister Gough Whitlam was informed of the operation in February 1973 and signed a document ordering the closure of the operation several weeks later. It appears, however, the last ASIS agent did not leave Chile until October 1973, one month after the coup d'état had brought down the Allende Government. There were also two officers of Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO), Australia's internal security service, who were based in Santiago working as migration officers during this period.^[57][58] The failure of timely closure of Australia's covert operations was one of the reasons for the sacking of the Director of ASIS on 21 October 1975. This took effect on 7 November, just four days before Prime Minister's Whitlam's own dismissal in the 1975 Australian constitutional crisis with allegations of CIA political interference

DJ The fascist scum pinochet, good friends with r.reagan and m.tatcher, did kill tens of thousends social active and responsible people....[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Condor[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Condor may have been much more global, including "intel" taking over the Italian "Red Brigades" killing Italian [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aldo_Moro[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aldo_Moro .....because of [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historic_Compromise[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historic_Compromise ; 

The Historic Compromise (Italian: Compromesso storico), called also Third Phase (Italian: Terza Fase) or Democratic Alternative (Italian: Alternativa Democratica), was a historical political accommodation between the Christian Democracy (DC) and the Italian Communist Party (PCI) in the 1970s.

DJ We all know what happened in the US-the horrors 20 years ago-and the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_on_terror[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_on_terror -disaster that followed...

What does this have to do with the present pandemic ? A lot !

First of all a corona-virus pandemic should not have come as a surprise ! Corona-virus disease was a well known problem in animals, we did see SARS-1 and MERS...so why was SARS-2 in 2019 such a "surprise"? Did "intel" in China at the end of 2019 know nothing of what was happening there ? In that case why waste billions of tax payer money on them ? 

Second, "The Powers That Be" did not change...their goal is to stay rich and in position to make the essential choices..."Democracy has its limits" ...Wars, pandemics make "good profits" even if it is killing millions....shares go up ! 

Third, "Intimidation works"..."1984" was a joke compared to where we are now ! From "vaccine passports" to its link with "smart phones" you are traceable 24/7...and you agree with it ! 

When you look at how this pandemic started, developed, one only can conclude that it was on purpose. Not that "governments" came together and agreed upon it...they never realy agree upon anything...but the "Powers that Be"did...the same "elite" that start (world) wars....

So-in scenario's-what could be the "goal" of this pandemic ? When will it end ? If it is for both money and power we still have a way to go....

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Global cases -10%, deaths -9%...vaccine- and natural immunity may show some effects. 

But we have "been here before"! Next step is a new variant ruining progress made...Timing-for most people winter is just a few months away-is "good".  In new variants I tried to get a picture of "Mu"...but with decrease in testing "living with the virus insanity" we may have no idea of how variants deal with vaccinated hosts without symptoms...The pandemic did become a "peat fire" you may not see it but it is there ! It will flare up under the "right" conditions !

UK cases +12%, deaths +19%, some parts of Australia cases up +25%, deaths +7%...Conservative PM wants all borders inside Australia to reopen...WA, Victoria say "No"...because they managed to keep Covid out ! 

New Zealand cases -68%, 432 cases last week, this week 137...the strategy of NPI/lockdowns again showing to be effective...

Israel-booster vaccines showing effect-cases -30%, deaths still +5%...

So basically we have the effective tools to end this pandemic; NPI, vaccines...why not end this pandemic ? 

[url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing ; BREAKING—CDC study confirms the NIH-Moderna #COVID19 vaccine is more effective against #DeltaVariant hospitalizations than Pfizer-BioNTech or Johnson & Johnson. Vaccine efficacy for Delta—Moderna 95%, Pfizer 80%, J&J 60%. VE also higher in age <74! https://cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7037e2-H.pdf

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deployment_of_COVID-19_vaccines[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deployment_of_COVID-19_vaccines and [url]https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=[/url] or https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country= Pfizer is maybe the most used vaccine in a lot of western countries...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923429-china-6-local-covid-19-cases-in-putian-fujian-province-buses-suspended-several-areas-declared-medium-risk-september-10-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923429-china-6-local-covid-19-cases-in-putian-fujian-province-buses-suspended-several-areas-declared-medium-risk-september-10-2021 ; According to the Fujian Provincial Health Commission, on September 10, Fujian Province reported 1 new local confirmed case (Putian City report) and 4 new local asymptomatic infections 

DJ China trends; cases -8% 189 last week, 174 this week were reported...Due to massive testing they find asymptomatic spread; then stop bus travel, prioritize local sequencing/testing, close tourist sites...no jokes !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923425-ga-more-than-a-dozen-gorillas-at-zoo-atlanta-diagnosed-with-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923425-ga-more-than-a-dozen-gorillas-at-zoo-atlanta-diagnosed-with-covid-19 ; Zoo Atlanta is treating 13 western lowland gorillas who have tested positive for COVID-19.

The gorillas were tested after they demonstrated mild coughing, runny noses and loss of appetite. Atlanta’s animal handlers took fecal samples and nasal and oral swabs from the gorillas and sent the samples to the Athens Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory at the University of Georgia, which returned a presumptive positive result.

DJ These gorillas showed symptoms...how many animals get infected and stay asymptomatic ? Possibly spreading the virus...non-human hosts are another enviroment for CoViD-19 virusses very likely to see new mutations...possibly worse variants...See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923401-indonesia-1-new-outbreak-of-sars-cov-2-in-sumatran-tigers-in-ragunan-zoo-jakarta-oie-september-08-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923401-indonesia-1-new-outbreak-of-sars-cov-2-in-sumatran-tigers-in-ragunan-zoo-jakarta-oie-september-08-2021 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923423-cidrap-study-many-early-nursing-home-covid-cases-deaths-likely-unreported[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923423-cidrap-study-many-early-nursing-home-covid-cases-deaths-likely-unreported ; More than 68,000 COVID-19 cases and 16,000 related deaths in US nursing homes may have gone uncounted because they occurred before federal guidelines required facilities to report case and death data in late May 2020, suggests a study yesterday in JAMA Network Open.

-

Federal underreporting of nursing home cases and deaths "may lead to misleading conclusions about the role of different facility characteristics and state or federal policies in explaining COVID outbreaks," the researchers said.

DJ Some countries/states do not give info at age of cases/deaths...Delta (etc) is killing lots of children...[url]https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD[/url] or https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD ; 

45 days ago…I remember the day you posted this 

 thinking 367 a day is scary. Our 

 says nobody could have predicted this. For the record here is the prediction. Oh rIght! The modellers at 

 were too scared to anger premier. #bestsummerever

DJ Bad "leaders" only want the info they like....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923424-cidrap-us-covid-19-vaccine-mandates-met-with-mixed-response[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923424-cidrap-us-covid-19-vaccine-mandates-met-with-mixed-response; Over the next several months, two thirds of the US workforce will be mandated to get vaccinated against COVID-19.

-

Today during a White House press briefing, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Rochelle Walensky, MD, MPH, said the new 7-day averages for the pandemic are 1,000 deaths per day, 136,500 cases per day, and 11,750 hospitalizations per day.

DJ The problem I have with mandates is they may be of limited use if you do not stop (air)travel, import of variants etc. you need to do more ! All of the chain, masks, social distance, ventilation, etc. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923421-cidrap-news-scan-variant-flu-cases-in-iowa-plague-in-madagascar-polio-in-nigeria-avian-flu-in-europe-pakistan[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923421-cidrap-news-scan-variant-flu-cases-in-iowa-plague-in-madagascar-polio-in-nigeria-avian-flu-in-europe-pakistan ; The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today confirmed two new variant flu cases in Iowa, according to its weekly Fluview update.
One case involves the influenza A H3N2 variant (H3N2v) and the other the influenza A H1N2 variant (H1N2v). Both infections are in children. Neither was hospitalized, and both have fully recovered, the CDC said.
Household members of one of the patients kept or cared for swine, while the other child had direct contact with swine. No human-to-human transmission has been associated with either case.
The CDC said, "When an influenza virus that normally circulates in swine (but not people) is detected in a person, it is called a 'variant influenza virus.' "
So far this year the CDC has recorded 9 variant flu cases, 2 of which were H3N2v, 2 H1N2v, and 5 H1N1v. Five cases have involved children, and four involved adults, all with direct or indirect contact with swine. No instances of human-to-human spread have occurred.
Sep 10 FluView report

-

Thirty cases of pneumonic plague have been reported in Madagascar, according to the latest communicable disease threats report from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).
The cases, 12 of which have been confirmed, were reported on Aug 29 by health authorities in the Arivonimamo district in the Itasy region of Madagascar. Seven cases have been fatal, all of them in the municipality of Miandrandra.

-

France has reported highly pathogenic H5N8 avian flu in poultry in the northeast of the country, following similar outbreaks in Belgium and Luxembourg.

DJ Lots of other diseases out there ! This pandemic is resulting in more "room" for some other diseases...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-melissa-hein-forum-for-psychological-research-and-development/923410-the-%E2%80%9Cpet-effect%E2%80%9D-paradox-are-pets-really-good-for-people[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-melissa-hein-forum-for-psychological-research-and-development/923410-the-%E2%80%9Cpet-effect%E2%80%9D-paradox-are-pets-really-good-for-people ; 

DJ-We "see what we want to see" in part...Pets may increase risks of upper respitory infections "hay fever" getting a disease from the pet....on the other hand pets are better in tolerating people then most humans are....(Maybe pets should get a nobel-peace price...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923413-quebec-kids-hospitals-packed-not-with-covid-19-but-unprecedented-surge-in-other-viruses[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923413-quebec-kids-hospitals-packed-not-with-covid-19-but-unprecedented-surge-in-other-viruses ; Quebec schools are coping with a surge of COVID-19 cases due to the more-transmissible Delta variant. Meanwhile, the stats showed, the emergency room of the Montreal Children’s Hospital was over 150 per cent capacity this week. 

-

“Honestly, what we’re seeing now has never been documented before,” said Montreal pediatric epidemiologist Jesse Papenburg.

One virus that can cause respiratory infections is spreading hugely, whereas it’s normally unheard-of to see it before November. There were also strange summer outbreaks of croup and other kids’ illnesses.

DJ Do we need to have some form of "basic infectious disease spread" to maintain "limits" later on ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-emerging-diseases-and-other-health-threats/923045-india-12-year-old-boy-dies-of-nipah-virus-infection-in-kozhikode-central-team-rushed-to-kerala-11-symptomatic-contacts?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-emerging-diseases-and-other-health-threats/923045-india-12-year-old-boy-dies-of-nipah-virus-infection-in-kozhikode-central-team-rushed-to-kerala-11-symptomatic-contacts?view=stream latest; All contacts have now tested negative at least once, and only 7 still have fever:

Nipah virus: Five more samples test negative (onmanorama.com)

DJ This outbreak may now be contained...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/other-coronavirus/923384-nat-commun-functional-comparison-of-mers-coronavirus-lineages-reveals-increased-replicative-fitness-of-the-recombinant-lineage-5[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/other-coronavirus/923384-nat-commun-functional-comparison-of-mers-coronavirus-lineages-reveals-increased-replicative-fitness-of-the-recombinant-lineage-5 ; Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is enzootic in dromedary camels across the Middle East and Africa. 

Virus-induced pneumonia in humans results from animal contact, with a potential for limited onward transmission. 

Phenotypic changes have been suspected after a novel recombinant clade (lineage 5) caused large nosocomial outbreaks in Saudi Arabia and South Korea in 2016. 

However, there has been no functional assessment. Here we perform a comprehensive in vitro and ex vivo comparison of viruses from parental and recombinant virus lineages (lineage 3, n = 7; lineage 4, n = 8; lineage 5, n = 9 viruses) from Saudi Arabia, isolated immediately before and after the shift toward lineage 5. 

Replication of lineage 5 viruses is significantly increased.

 Transcriptional profiling finds reduced induction of immune genes IFNB1, CCL5, and IFNL1 in lung cells infected with lineage 5 strains. Phenotypic differences may be determined by IFN antagonism based on experiments using IFN receptor knock out and signaling inhibition. Additionally, lineage 5 is more resilient against IFN pre-treatment of Calu-3 cells (ca. 10-fold difference in replication).

 This phenotypic change associated with lineage 5 has remained undiscovered by viral sequence surveillance, but may be a relevant indicator of pandemic potential.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome#Epidemiology[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome#Epidemiology MERS is the other CoViD with several peaks ; [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome_outbreak[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome_outbreak , Saudi Arabia start, [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome_outbreak_in_South_Korea[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome_outbreak_in_South_Korea ,

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome_outbreak[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome_outbreak 

Till march this year MERS killed 885 people, 34% of the 2,574 detected infections...DJ-Given the timeline, global spread, could MERS and SARS-2 be somehow related ? In the "official story" SARS-2 may be linked to bats...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/923372-disaster-med-public-health-prep-covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy-among-medical-students-the-next-covid-19-challenge-in-wuhan-china[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/923372-disaster-med-public-health-prep-covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy-among-medical-students-the-next-covid-19-challenge-in-wuhan-china ; Abstract

Objective: The purpose of this study was to explore the level of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine hesitancy among medical students in Wuhan, China, and to identify the factors and barriers associated with their vaccination decision.
Methods: A cross-sectional survey was launched with 612 medical students recruited by convenience sampling from six universities. Data collection measures mainly included a demographic questionnaire, COVID-19 vaccine knowledge questionnaire, and the vaccine hesitancy scale.
Results: A total of 58.2% of medical students reported vaccine hesitancy. The most common reasons for this were worrying about the side effects of vaccines (44.4%), uncertainty about vaccine safety (40.4%), and underestimating the risk of exposure to COVID-19 (27.9%). The main factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among participants were their knowledge about COVID-19 vaccine, training related to COVID-19 vaccines, family address, and education level (P<0.05).
Conclusions: The government, health department and universities in China need to work together and actively communicate with vaccine-hesitant students, establish a standardized COVID-19 vaccine course, and provide on-campus vaccination services.

DJ We may have to change the way we think of China....

-Dr. John Campbell discussing ZOE-claims [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASq0_qUo2dA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASq0_qUo2dA For the UK; Current cases, + 51,876 (symptomatic)  , Down 9.2% from 57,158 new daily cases last week

In the fully vaccinated population Cases, + 17,674 (symptomatic) (Last week’s average, + 17,342) 

New cases are the highest among the 0-18 and 18–35 year-old 

On average 1 in 90 people in the UK currently have symptomatic COVID 

UK R value = 1.0 Wales, 1.1 Scotland, 1.1 

Scotland and England Cases remain highest in 0-19 years old 

Professor Tim Spector It’s great to see the return to schools and summer festivals haven’t yet resulted in a spike in cases as feared. Worse in Scotland, rates are still rising Scottish hospitals could soon be overwhelmed 

The Scottish situation makes it clear we can’t be complacent about COVID as winter approaches We are still producing far too many Long Covid cases and hospitalisations unnecessarily 

For 521 days, ZOE and King’s College London have demanded cold and flu-like symptoms be recognised as common COVID-19 symptoms UK rates the highest in Europe, if the government continues with no restrictions, surely we should at least help people to recognise the symptoms early and know when to stay at home

DJ Again worldometer puts UK cases trends +12%, deaths +19%....most days around 37,000+ cases. But ZOE is using app-numbers based on symptoms/self-reporting....Given the UK R0 of 1 and "autumn/winter on its way", BoJo "piling up bodies" the outlook for the UK is bad !

-Other news; 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Atlantic_hurricane_season[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Atlantic_hurricane_season and [url]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/[/url] or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ ; "Larry" is making landfall in New Foundland-Canada as a hurricane...strong storm surge..."Nicholas" and "Odette" are forming...may show problems in a few days...

[url]https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=-50.06419,-278.78906&extent=80.29793,88.94531[/url] or https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=-50.06419,-278.78906&extent=80.29793,88.94531 DJ-I still do NOT like the seismic situation-to much "small activity"  maybe a warning for a "big event" M9+ in the Pacific Ring ? 

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/09/on-borrowed-time-how-long-to-a-miocene-like-tropical-4c-world.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/09/on-borrowed-time-how-long-to-a-miocene-like-tropical-4c-world.html ; Humans appear to be mainly concerned about any one issue at a time, and while COVID-19 is claiming the lives of millions Homo sapiens appears to be increasingly oblivious to the growing threat to billions of humans and to nature, including the inhabitability of large regions and extinguishment of habitats.

The almost universal assumption as if a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is in itself sufficient to prevent further warming is misleading, since positive feedbacks from land and ocean would continue to raise greenhouse levels and temperatures.

DJ It can get to late to act...the only option is to face consequences of inaction...both for climate collapse and this pandemic ! 

Music; There are nine milion bicycles in Bejing (DJ and by now to many cars !) - Katie Malua [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dd0e0gBhae8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dd0e0gBhae8 from the time there were "6 billion people in the world"...

On UK HCW-ers the info I did see indicates 90%+ is (fully) vaccinated...The less then 10% not vaccinated in part may have reasons for that (from medical to timing...). And yes-some will claim this is a reason for mandatory vaccinations for HCW-ers...Here in NL an employer can not make such a demand that easy...If you are vaccinated or not is your privacy....

On [url]https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32582220/[/url] or https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32582220/ "non sterilizing vaccines"; Conventional influenza vaccines aim at the induction of virus-neutralizing antibodies that provide with sterilizing immunity. However, influenza vaccination often confers protection from disease but not from infection.

DJ Not a lot in this world is perfect...numbers indicate vaccines-in general-do a very good job. However what we did win via vaccinations we more then give away with reopening...

And I think it is governments job to govern, set rules ! If there is a health crisis my government has to make rules to deal with such a crisis...even if that would mean I have to stay in my house...

-On twitter I did find a good storyline describing where we are and what to expect (the goal of "scenario's); A Dutch link with lots of good English spoken/written tweets; [url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ doctor/microbiologist; A Danish expert wrote; A moral project can backfire. It can lead to shaming and conflict. There has been discussions of this in DK. But in general shaming in DK is relatively low. Most simply followed the advice of the authorities and didn't take it upon themselves to police others.

-

Look at this tread on the Danish approach. It shouldn't be surprising that many years of paying in depth attention to  community engagement and actively addressing vaccine hesitancy leads to these numbers. Vaccine hesitance is a proxy indicator for trust in institutions.

-

Yanneer Bar-Yam had a number of tweets; Agreed that vaccines did not cause delta. The combination of vaccination and not reducing transmission leads to growth of delta.

Stopping transmission is the only way to stop evolution.

Where we have lost is in the reduction of use of mesures to prevent transmission. So that makes the danger for everyone worse. Children and unvaccinated people are more severely affected, are not vaccinated, and many more are going to school, so they are getting the worst of it.

This means that while we gain from vaccination today and therefore should vaccinate, overall since a year ago we have not gained much, if any, ground in the fight against the virus.

The current efficacy of the vaccines against the Delta variant leads to roughly 2-3 reduction of transmission, but the Delta variant is 2-3 times more transmissible. The prevention of severe cases is about 2-3 and the Delta is about 2-3 more severe.

In the meantime, while this is happening, the virus also is mutating to be more transnmissible overall. So the virus is worse and we lost the help of the vaccine. This is what has happened over the past year. We have a worse virus and vaccines that are weaker.

This is their strength and weakness. If we don't shut down transmission with whatever means we can (including both vaccines and masking, social distancing, not gathering), the virus mutates to bypass the vaccines and we are left with only the other ways of fighting the virus.

When we suppress transmission (masks, social distancing, no gatherings), we reduce fitness of  variants. Fitness and R are related. If R<1 they just disappear over a short time. When we allow transmission, vaccine evading variants grow in number and dominate over time.

Mass vaccination in a population causes a bias in the fitness landscape---the fitness of each of the variants is different. Those that are vaccine evading have a fitness advantage, i.e. replicate faster than those that don't.

When the virus is circulating in a vaccinated population, variants that are more rapidly transmitting are selected for --- those are vaccine evading variants. By vaccinating without shutting down transmission we are promoting vaccine evading variants.

DJ You need to combine vaccines with restrictions otherwise you are stimulating immunity evading variants...And most countries "saving the economy" are going that way...(I was glad to read this info to check myself...Am I seeing ghosts, writing non-sense...?)

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; Cases worldwide -12%, deaths -9%. Countries in + for cases = 78, + for deaths = 68. This week global reported deaths 60,064 - last week 65,971...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923466-us-various-covid-19-cases-and-deaths-counts-spot-check-for-september-11-2021-for-trend-analysis-only[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923466-us-various-covid-19-cases-and-deaths-counts-spot-check-for-september-11-2021-for-trend-analysis-only ;

DJ For the US at least four institutions are counting numbers; New York Times, Worldometers, CDC, John Hopkins (and Ourworldindata is not on the list...). They all give different numbers for various reasons; timing-wich 24 hours do you count-US has several time zones ! Do you include US Samoa, Puerto Rico, Guam, etc...Over a longer period-using the same definition of cases/deaths numbers should be very close...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/pneumonia-respiratory-and-influenza-like-illnesses-ili-ac/france-ae/923417-france-brittany-human-case-of-h1n2-swine-flu-detected-september-10-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/pneumonia-respiratory-and-influenza-like-illnesses-ili-ac/france-ae/923417-france-brittany-human-case-of-h1n2-swine-flu-detected-september-10-2021 ; “The National Reference Center (CNR) for respiratory infection viruses at the Institut Pasteur confirmed, on September 3, 2021, a case of human infection with an influenza virus of porcine origin (H1N2) v. The patient was hospitalized, his clinical condition is now favorable. The local authorities are mobilized and call for vigilance of health professionals in the Brittany region.

-

At this stage, a link between the infection and the exposure of the individual to live pigs in the week prior to onset of symptoms cannot be confirmed. No other symptomatic person was detected in the patient's close entourage.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H1N2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H1N2 ;

Influenza A virus subtype H1N2 (A/H1N2) is a subtype of the species Influenza A virus (sometimes called bird flu virus). It is currently endemic in pig populations and is occasionally seen in humans.

The virus does not cause more severe illness than other influenza viruses, and no unusual increases in influenza activity have been associated with it.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/923453-sci-rep-impact-of-overlapping-risks-of-type-2-diabetes-and-obesity-on-coronavirus-disease-severity-in-the-united-states[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/923453-sci-rep-impact-of-overlapping-risks-of-type-2-diabetes-and-obesity-on-coronavirus-disease-severity-in-the-united-states ; The impact of overlapping risk factors on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) severity is unclear. To evaluate the impact of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity on COVID-19 severity, we conducted a cohort study with 28,095 anonymized COVID-19 patients using data from the COVID-19 Research Database from January 1, 2020 to November 30, 2020.

 The mean age was 50.8 ± 17.5 years, and 11,802 (42%) patients were male. 

Data on age, race, sex, T2D complications, antidiabetic medication prescription, and body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m² (obesity) were analysed using Cox proportional hazard models, with hospitalization risk and critical care within 30 days of COVID-19 diagnosis as the main outcomes. 

The risk scores were 0-4 for age ≥ 65 years, male sex, T2D, and obesity. 

Among the participants, 11,294 (61.9%) had obesity, and 4445 (15.8%) had T2D. 

T2D, obesity, and male sex were significantly associated with COVID-19 hospitalization risk. 

Regarding hospitalization risk scores, compared with those for hospitalization risk score 0 and critical care risk score 0, hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals] were 19.034 [10.470-34.600] and 55.803 [12.761-244.015] (P < 0.001) (P < 0.001), respectively, for risk score 4. 

Complications from diabetes and obesity increased hospitalization and critical care risks for COVID-19 patients.

DJ You can think of several questions; does obesity (BMI 30+), and/or diabetes type 2 (T2D) in itself increase the risks for getting infected ? Or are the risks for infection the same as with people BMI30- and/or non T2D ? The information indicates that when people with T2D/BMI30+ DO get infected they get more severe illness. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/923452-sci-rep-anthraquinolone-and-quinolizine-derivatives-as-an-alley-of-future-treatment-for-covid-19-an-in-silico-machine-learning-hypothesis[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/923452-sci-rep-anthraquinolone-and-quinolizine-derivatives-as-an-alley-of-future-treatment-for-covid-19-an-in-silico-machine-learning-hypothesis ; More than 300 clinical trials are ongoing to investigate the potential therapeutic option for preventing/treating COVID-19. 

Considering the critical role of SARS-CoV-2 main protease (M^pro) in pathogenesis being primarily involved in polyprotein processing and virus maturation, it makes SARS-CoV-2 main protease (M^pro) as an attractive and promising antiviral target. 

Thus, in our study, we focused on SARS-CoV-2 main protease (M^pro), used machine learning algorithms and virtually screened small derivatives of anthraquinolone and quinolizine from PubChem that may act as potential inhibitor.

 Prioritisation of cavity atoms obtained through pharmacophore mapping and other physicochemical descriptors of the derivatives helped mapped important chemical features for ligand binding interaction and also for synergistic studies with molecular docking. 

Subsequently, these studies outcome were supported through simulation trajectories that further proved anthraquinolone and quinolizine derivatives as potential small molecules to be tested experimentally in treating COVID-19 patients.

DJ; Infection is a complex proces in many steps-giving room for interventions to stop/slow down the infection proces. Proberbly several medicins may prove to be usefull..we are still learning how to use them the best way. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/923450-nat-med-the-next-phase-of-sars-cov-2-surveillance-real-time-molecular-epidemiology[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/923450-nat-med-the-next-phase-of-sars-cov-2-surveillance-real-time-molecular-epidemiology ; The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is the first to apply whole-genome sequencing near to real time, with over 2 million severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) whole-genome sequences generated and shared through the GISAID platform. 

This genomic resource informed public health decision-making throughout the pandemic; it also allowed detection of mutations that might affect virulence, pathogenesis, host range or immune escape as well as the effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics and therapeutics.

 However, genotype-to-phenotype predictions cannot be performed at the rapid pace of genomic sequencing. 

To prepare for the next phase of the pandemic, a systematic approach is needed to link global genomic surveillance and timely assessment of the phenotypic characteristics of novel variants, which will support the development and updating of diagnostics, vaccines, therapeutics and nonpharmaceutical interventions.

 This Review summarizes the current knowledge on key viral mutations and variants and looks to the next phase of surveillance of the evolving pandemic.

DJ Time is a major factor to get a grip on the pandemic...the sooner new variants are detected the sooner there "may" be action to stop it spreading...However any progress in science becomes useless if politics keep failing...If a lot of governments simply show themselves to be to stupid to recognize dangers from climate collapse, pandemics one can only wait for disasters to unfold...

Just like vaccination after infection-in the ICU-is pointless...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines/923437-pediatrics-recommendations-for-prevention-and-control-of-influenza-in-children-2021-2022[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines/923437-pediatrics-recommendations-for-prevention-and-control-of-influenza-in-children-2021-2022 ;

link to [url]https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/early/2021/09/03/peds.2021-053744[/url] or https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/early/2021/09/03/peds.2021-053744 

DJ-Proberbly children with healthissues may be over represented in Covid-cases-still also a lot of healthy children end up infected, in hospital, ICU or dead...A healthy immune over reaction in itself can do a lot of damage !

-Dr. John Campbell on "Zinc nutrition as we enter the endemic phase", booster immunity [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yISH-sCvHXU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yISH-sCvHXU info under the video.

DJ Dr.J.C. goes for "living with the virus" claiming "all scientists agree in that view"...both views are-in my opinion- very WRONG !

Living with the virus will result in immunity evading variants able to infect people over and over again...in many ways just like "a cold" but with much severe healthissues ! And no vaccines yet there to stop that !

Science is very divided on almost everything in this pandemic ! From (booster)vaccines to "are worse variants thinkable" (DJ-Yes they are !)...It is not any scientists job to tell you what to do ! (S)He can give you the info they have-YOU decide what to do with it !

From a historical point of view people tend to underestimate some risks...Go in the overdrive for "money making risks"...

-Some other scenario's;

Afghanistan; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKBpTThDopY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKBpTThDopY "The Royal Afghan Army" - "Prussians of the oriënt"; from the 1920's to the early 1970's Afghanistan lived in peace...Taxation in soldiers-not money-may be one of the basic problems...

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/09/afghanistan-state-department-sanctimoniously-laments-about-lack-of-female-leaders.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/09/afghanistan-state-department-sanctimoniously-laments-about-lack-of-female-leaders.html Should I mention Saudi Arabia-"owned" by a 20,000 "royal" family...among the worst in human rights worldwide...other Gulf IS sponsors ? Or should I mention Texas...where fundamentalist "politicians"are against abortion but kill unvaccinated children by the hundreds because they "do not believe in a pandemic"....

Weather [url]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5[/url] or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 FIVE !! Potential storms in the Atlantic ! [url]https://www.ventusky.com/?p=37;-81;2&l=gust[/url] or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=37;-81;2&l=gust may help to find out what to expect...

Tropical Tidbits [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnQDLu4FT8M[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnQDLu4FT8M ,

DJ It looks like allready hard hit US area's may face even more flooding. How much NYC-metro can take before it is "beyond repair" ? How much Texas oil industry can take, US infrastructure...Does one repair things only to see it break down again within a month ? Who will pay for that (not the rich !)....And I am not even starting on the seismic outlook...

Music; The Monkees - Pleasant Valley Sunday [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUzs5dlLrm0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUzs5dlLrm0 

However we look at Covid, the fact remains that our society in the first world has evolved into some sort of unsustainable nightmare on many levels. We live in ridiculous comfort and we flush our toilets with drinkable water when half the world doesn't have any water supply at all in their homes. There is a perverse disparity in how we live and how the rest of the world lives. Just because someone has money, it doesn't make them more worthy of receiving something than a person with no money. An 85 year old having a lung transplant is ludicrous. 

We are robbing the planet of resources that are not being replenished and we (stupidly) think we have a right to do so. We have an ever growing crisis with climate change and now we have a pandemic to contend with too. I honestly don't know what the answer is. This is something that my children are very concerned about and rightly so, but the other day we were studying the speeches of Greta Thunberg and she talks about global equity frequently. Would we be prepared to lower our standard of living to enable people in third world countries to raise theirs? It would be painful and inconvenient and would alter our way of life considerably. We love our smartphones and our technology. We love our beautiful home and our hybrid cars. We take for granted our ultra fast broadband and our constant supply of hot water. 

What we concluded was there were only two solutions to the climate change: one was that we all drastically lower our standard of living, and I mean drastically. We'd end up in a sort of 1940's utopia. or two, we halve the population. Well no one wants to volunteer for number one, and no one wants to enact number two so perhaps Mother Nature will do it for us.

DJ, 

Another try of making sense of where we are and where we are going...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table Cases -15%, deaths -10% may indicate we are getting out of the (mostly) "Delta" peak...It does not mean there will not be another peak...it does not mean we are "out of this pandemic"...

We have seen "post pandemic talk" earlier when peaks went down-only to be followed by other variants...

There are 73 countries reporting increase of cases, from Eastern Europe, Guyana's, parts of Asia..UK still at +1%....New variants show-thus far-up in "poor regions" most-the UK variant may have been imported into the UK, but SA, Brazil, Nigeria, Philippines, India/Nepal, Peru, Colombia a.o.so far produced relevant variants...

Colombia may have been start for "Mu", Peru for "Lambda"....When you look at this pandemic so far it is very likely there will be some other variant showing up...

What is stopping that ? Immunity ! But is that stopping those variants enough ? I think we do not know that yet !

So "to be on the safe side" it "may be wise" to "help" the vaccines the best we can with restrictions...

From the statistics I take "deaths" maybe more "serious"...testing has been going down since the "dominant belief" is "living with the virus"..."endemic CoViD".....But if we fail to test how we will find out how good immunity-both natural and vaccine-work ? 

How can we get a view on asymptomatic spread ? 

Answer is-it looks like we do not want to know....

Some experts claim lifting restrictions because of vaccines will result in spread of immunity evasive variants...Are we restarting testing/sequencing when the expected autumn/fall wave starts ? 

What number of deaths, long term health issues are we willing to accept for what ? Did we-so far-learn anything from this pandemic ? The need for better public healthcare, better prevention/early detection...

When I look at the picture I need a very strong coffee....

-Flutrackers etc.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats/923488-lebanon-sharp-drop-in-water-supply-raises-health-concerns[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats/923488-lebanon-sharp-drop-in-water-supply-raises-health-concerns ; The water problem is the latest manifestation of Lebanon's two-year old economic crisis and is linked to the crippling fuel shortages created by a lack of foreign currency to pay for imports.

Lebanese are hopeful that the announcement of a new Cabinet on Friday – ending 13 months of a caretaker government and impasse – may improve conditions.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Failed_state[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Failed_state This pandemic-with many other factors-is pushing many countries closer to the edge...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-a-thru-h/cholera-incl-haiti-cholera-disaster/904913-nigeria-2021-cholera?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-a-thru-h/cholera-incl-haiti-cholera-disaster/904913-nigeria-2021-cholera?view=stream latests; The cholera death toll in Nigeria is unrelenting and widespread. Henceforth, by early September, the death toll from cholera reached over 2,000 people. Therefore, the death toll will continue to flow at a time of endless ethnic and religious problems – while other health care issues also blight Nigeria.

According to the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), the current cholera crisis concerns 23 states. At the last count (September 2), the death toll hit 2,141 out of a total of 65,145 suspected cholera cases. Thus, the current Case Fatality Rate is 3.3 percent....

DJ Nigeria is rich in oil-but that wealth increased division and corruption, inequality...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/other-aa/923474-madagascar-2021-plague[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/other-aa/923474-madagascar-2021-plague ; According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) report issued on September 10, 2021, thirty cases of pneumonic plague have been reported in the Republic of Madagascar. Pneumonic plague is one of several forms of plague and is endemic in Madagascar.

-

Plague 2021: Scientists Recorded Person-to-Person Transmission of Drug-Resistant Yersinia Pestis 
"A spontaneous point mutation has rendered the [antimicrobial resistance] AMR strain from this epidemic resistant to streptomycin, although it is still susceptible to many other antibiotics, including co-trimoxazole. Fortunately, all 19 instances were treated with co-trimoxazole in addition to streptomycin, and they all lived."

There has previously been evidence of antimicrobial-resistant plague. For example, in 2017, scientists reported the case of a 16-year-old boy in Madagascar who was infected with Y. pestis bacteria that was discovered to be resistant to eight popular antibiotics, including streptomycin, used to treat the infection. This is the first time, however, that experts have found evidence of person-to-person transfer.

Okieman Comment: We often tend to think of Plague as being primarily a major concern from the past since antibiotics can be used to treat it now. But, if a antibiotic resistant strain of Pneumonic Plague arises and gets out of Madagascar during this Covid Pandemic then we may have a world of hurt start up. 

-

Plague appears to be a seasonal thing in Madagascar between September and April. What is concerning to me is Pneumonic Plague spreading at the same time as Covid. Here is the symptoms for Pneumonic Plague:

And here is a short description:

Both of these quotes are from this CDC factsheet: https://emergency.cdc.gov/agent/plague/factsheet.asp

DJ [url]https://www.cdc.gov/plague/transmission/index.html[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/plague/transmission/index.html ; 

Many types of animals, such as rock squirrels, wood rats, ground squirrels, prairie dogs, chipmunks, mice, voles, and rabbits can be affected by plague. Wild carnivores can become infected by eating other infected animals.

Scientists think that plague bacteria circulate at low rates within populations of certain rodents without causing excessive rodent die-off. These infected animals and their fleas serve as long-term reservoirs for the bacteria. This is called the enzootic cycle.

So can birds spread it out of Madagascar ? 

Israel ; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923482-israel-over-10-000-new-covid-cases-as-r-rate-rises-number-of-seriously-ill-rise-after-being-stable-for-weeks[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923482-israel-over-10-000-new-covid-cases-as-r-rate-rises-number-of-seriously-ill-rise-after-being-stable-for-weeks ; Israel on Sunday again saw its COVID-19 reproduction number and severe cases spike, just days after health officials said the fourth infection wave had started to ebb.
10,084 new coronavirus cases were diagnosed on Shabbos after 155,871 tests were performed.
The rate of positive tests was 6.6%, while the coefficient of infection rose to 0.96.
The country’s number of seriously ill COVID-19 patients has also seen an increase and now stands at 697 after being stable for the past few weeks.
The death toll from the coronavirus in Israel has risen to 7,338....

and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923483-israel-preparing-for-possible-fourth-covid-19-vaccine-dose[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923483-israel-preparing-for-possible-fourth-covid-19-vaccine-dose ; Israel is making preparations to ensure it has a sufficient vaccine supply in case a fourth round of COVID-19 shots is needed, the country’s top health official said on Sunday.
“We don’t know when it will happen; I hope very much that it won’t be within six months, like this time, and that the third dose will last for longer,” Health Ministry Director General Nachman Ash said in an interview with Radio 103FM....

and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923484-bennett-says-israel-to-genetically-scan-all-arrivals-for-the-coronavirus[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923484-bennett-says-israel-to-genetically-scan-all-arrivals-for-the-coronavirus ; https://www.timesofisrael.com/bennet...e-coronavirus/
Bennett says Israel to genetically scan all arrivals for the coronavirus

No details of program immediately available; PM says patience running out for the unvaccinated; cabinet backs proposal for classmates of infected kids to avoid automatic quarantine

By Stuart Winer Today, 7:02 pm
...
“We are working on a scanning system for everyone who comes into Israel,” Bennett said, according to comments from the meeting leaked to Hebrew media. “Israel will thus become the radar for the virus.”...

and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923481-pfizer-exec-calls-israel-%E2%80%98a-sort-of-laboratory%E2%80%99-for-covid-vaccines-pfizer-says-their-chief-scientific-officer-misspoke[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923481-pfizer-exec-calls-israel-%E2%80%98a-sort-of-laboratory%E2%80%99-for-covid-vaccines-pfizer-says-their-chief-scientific-officer-misspoke ; A top Pfizer executive has called Israel a “sort of laboratory” for the COVID vaccine in comments that were seized on by local anti-vaxxers, rejected by Israeli health officials, and later clarified by the pharmaceutical company.

Philip Dormitzer, the chief scientific officer at Pfizer, made the comments to a Zoom gathering of academics last week. They were first reported by Channel 12 news on Friday night.

“Early in the pandemic we established a relationship with the Israeli Ministry of Health where they used exclusively the Pfizer vaccine and then monitored it very closely,” Dormitzer told the gathering, “so we had a sort of laboratory where we could see the effect.”

...
Pfizer later clarified Dormitzer’s comments in a statement to Channel 12 news.

“Pfizer is aware of a video clip featuring an interview with one of our scientists who unfortunately misspoke on a key point we wish to clarify: We are grateful for the cooperation between Pfizer and the Israeli Health Ministry. It is not a clinical research study. This is a non-interventional ‘real world’ evidence data collection collaboration.”...

DJ Israel is one of the countries seen by many as an example of how to deal with this pandemic. Not a very large population-9,3 million, multi-cultured, border control...so a good place to test strategies; In trends cases -21%, deaths -28% ...Israel did see 66,144 cases last week, this week 52,581...In deaths 229 became 165 this week...still 18 deaths per million in the last week...The US did see 26 deaths per million last week, the UK 14...most of western Europe between 2 and 4...

Israel and the UK were early in mass vaccinations-lifting restrictions...If the goal is to get out of the pandemic that goal has not been reached yet...[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923476-no-covid-19-lockdowns-vaccine-passports-in-future-says-uk-health-minister[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923476-no-covid-19-lockdowns-vaccine-passports-in-future-says-uk-health-minister ; UK Health Minister Sajid Javid said he does not expect the country to enter another lockdown to fight Covid-19

British health minister Sajid Javid said on Sunday he did not expect the country to see any more lockdowns to fight the COVID-19 crisis and ruled out the use of vaccine passports to allow people to attend mass events.

"I am not anticipating any more lockdowns. I think it would be irresponsible for any health minister around the world to take everything off the table but I just don't see how we get to another lockdown," Javid told the BBC's Andrew Marr show...

DJ I expect lots of countries falling back to lockdowns before the end of the year...From twitter; Kaila Colbin ;If you think New Zealand's lockdowns are an infringement on our liberty, note that our shorter, stricter lockdowns have allowed NZ to be one of the freest countries in the world during the entire pandemic.

One of the major problems-making this pandemic last much longer-is half choices...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/09/11/unmute-us-tens-thousands-protest-event-sector-shutdown-35000-amsterdam[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/09/11/unmute-us-tens-thousands-protest-event-sector-shutdown-35000-amsterdam incoherent communications and strategies erode any support...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/09/12/dozens-arrested-trying-squat-building-amsterdam-housing-protest[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/09/12/dozens-arrested-trying-squat-building-amsterdam-housing-protest In the "bigger picture" climate change, pandemics, poverty are related to a way of thinking...

If "me" gets bigger the "we" we all loose...

[url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing ;  we honestly need to come together to end this pandemic. I think the pandemic is becoming a 21st century test on the fabric of our society and our moral compass to do the right thing to save lives. Will we win or will we fail? 

-

 RANKED #1—#COVID19 is now the **number 1 cause of excess death** globally this past week, according to @AliHMokdad of @IHME_UW. Let that sink in. These are direct causes of death, not just other major diseases. COVID minimizers need to wake up and accept reality. #vaccinate

Music; The Boomtown Rats - I Don't Like Mondays [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Kobdb37Cwc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Kobdb37Cwc

There's been a lot of talk recently about a sterilizing vaccine - apparently means a vaccine that simply stops you being able to contract the illness in question. Until such a jab is available then there's very little that can be done. Personally I don't hold out any hope of a sterilizing vaccine being able to be developed for a coronavirus, so we're back to hope that it evolves into a less dangerous illness.

But Carbon, the evidence (even accepted by nearly all governments now) shows that the vaccines will not stop you for contracting Covid and from being infectious to others. Do you watch Dr John Campbell on youtube? Even he acknowledges that all fully vaccinated people will get Covid before too long. In fact todays video from him is about when is it best to expose ourselves to the virus. 

So even if the whole of WA was vaccinated, every man, woman and child, it still wouldn't stop Covid from getting in. 

I think Jacinda is just coming to terms with that here because in our papers it says that the government will not use lockdowns again. So far 32% of NZ are vaccinated and we've run out of vaccines so are doing deals with other countries to get some of their spare ones. Our next shipment from Pfizer was due in October but I think Denmark are hot footing some to us right now. It's all a bit of a mess. You can't keep a city like Auckland in a level 4 lockdown forever. Something's gotta give.