scenario's

Sorry Roni, I have to address this.

Yes, KiwiMum, I could see your point, if it were a simple one, but it is not.  The very bits of the vaccines that cause problems for a few people are the same bits as those of the bug itself that does the same.  So the risks are immediate with the vaccine, but even for the young, smaller than the bug.

On top of that, the people who have their lives shortened by the disease may look like the old, but the virus is being allowed to remain in circulation and will eventually shorten the lives of today's children in their old age, if we do not address it now.

I would love to let this drop.  I am tired of arguing.  But I can't in all conscience let anti-vax propaganda stand unchallenged.  I don't want those deaths on my hands.

Technophobe wrote: Sorry Roni, I have to address this. Yes, KiwiMum, I could see your point, if it were a simple one, but it is not.  The very bits of the vaccines that cause problems for a few people are the same bits as those of the bug itself that does the same.  So the risks are immediate with the vaccine, but even for the young, smaller than the bug. On top of that, the people who have their lives shortened by the disease may look like the old, but the virus is being allowed to remain in circulation and will eventually shorten the lives of today's children in their old age, if we do not address it now. I would love to let this drop.  I am tired of arguing.  But I can't in all conscience let anti-vax propaganda stand unchallenged.  I don't want those deaths on my hands.

Techno I'm also bored of this repeating argument but the fact remains, no one can honestly say that they can guarantee there are no long term effects for this vaccine. To try and say otherwise is just lying. This is what scientific procedure is based upon. And as for saying that we need to tackle this now, the most pro-vaccine scientists out there have agreed that even if 100% of the planet was vaccinated today, all at the same time, because Covid can affect vaccinated people and still let them transmit it on to other vaccinated and non vaccinated people, the virus wouldn't be erradicated. It's simply not possible. 

The solution appears to be to use a combination of pharmaceutical and non pharmaceutical measures in combination and deal with it as best as possible until the virus itself evolves to become a much milder illness. Possibly to secure the popular vote, governments around the world seem unable or unwilling to use all the available defenses all at once. Instead we're seeing Boris encouraging mingling and no masks, only to have to go back on it and now demand masks again. Jacinda is in the process of handing out free tickets to tourist attractions all over NZ to Aucklanders to reward them for being in lockdown, and thereby encouraging them to travel for Christmas and so spread Covid all over as they go. It's madness.

part 2

DJ One of my main questions is how wll immunity/vaccines work out against Omicron...It did quite well-still-against Delta. Booster vaccinations did effect number in many countries. 

Another question I have is "what will/can end" an Omicron wave ? If vaccines/immunity would NOT work...(or even made matters worse ?)....Running out of hosts ? Some of us getting into a "safety bubble" for the time needed-very likely years...till the virus ran out of (by then non-human) hosts ? 

Am I missing something ? Am I much to pessimistic ? How do others see the "Omicron wave" ? 

Twitter/flutrackers etc...(and since these questions are that major I will try to take time/parts for that...).

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator  (had good info so far...most retweets);

Double Individual Speculator

@x2IndSpeculator

·

5 u

Anyone looked at Massachusetts wastewater #COVID19 tracking recently?

DJ Sewage is a better indicator/early warning for Omicron spread then statistics now can be...(694,394 cases reported, +3% weekly trend...7,571 deaths -3%  but in a storm you have to go for "now-casting". 

"Weird"? I hope for starters virologists would stop calling #SARS2 a straightforward, not particularly special textbook virus & suggesting people should get infected by it. Only once the majority stops underestimating #SARS2 & looks at it in awe, we can move toward solving this.

DJ Downplaying/denying risks, "hopium" - "it can not get that bad" ....History is telling us pandemics can be very, very bad !!! Closing your eyes for risks is creating even more risks...

Where did #Omicron come from? Nobody knows. But, this is familiar & was the reason some of us advocated for the immediate (no-matter-the-costs) elimination strategy of the inherently, for humans of the 21st century incomprehensible & unpredictable virus.

DJ If all of a sudden my house started to get flooded-and I do not have any idea what is causing it - still I would try to get safety the best I can...even without (a chance of) further info....

Pleasantly surprised Novavax has as good T cell responses as Ad26 and Pfizer. Data on its T cell responses had been lacking. But T cell function is very age-dependent. This should give caution to those who claim T cell responses will save everyone. Not everyone unfortunately.

2

DJ I would love it if vaccines/treatments could stop this pandemic !!! But-at best-they may work for some...

At the beginning of the pandemic, the 1st at-the-time known & reported deaths were on February 29 in the US & March 6 in the UK. It seemed mild for a month back then. People forget #SARS2 is like a snowball, it accumulates as it rolls & starts to kill once it saturated the air.

DJ We have been in this pandemic for allmost two years now...you can see certain developments...mistakes being repeated over and over again...

Also, the timing. Gauteng showed a visible increase in cases in the middle of November. And the rest of the world had first introductions two weeks ago. So, I think #Omicron will manifest in four, not 8 weeks. Sometime around Christmas. In January, #Delta should start falling.

-

Double Individual Speculator

@x2IndSpeculator

·

7 u

Remember when I tactfully tried to put it out there that we could reach a million cases per day globally. Well, it doesn't seem far-fetched anymore, does it?

DJ The highest number of cases per day was  904,018 april 29 (under reporting still Delta explosion in India...Omicron is worse). Highest deaths was 17,520 january 27...Alpha variant related....I do not see how we can stay under the million cases+ per day, tens-of-thousend of deaths per day other then "collapse of testing/reporting/healthcare"...Healthcare has been overstretched by far for much to long...It allready did see its limits with Delta-subvariants...

Since Omicron only needed two weeks in SA to become the dominant variant I expect Omicron to be the dominant variant around the globe this month/year...It is allready spreading high speed in many countries that keep failing to decide on any restrictions....

part 4a-trying to balance my view....

Maybe something on perspectives...The strongest earthquake in recent history was a M 9.5 [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_Valdivia_earthquake[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_Valdivia_earthquake (9.4 to 9.6) for some that may give an idea that quakes could not get that much worse...From my perspective-over a longer time-we may have seen M10 (maybe even a few M10+) quakes....There is a limit (put by the Earth itself) to how strong/bad earthquakes can get...An asteroid hitting Earth should not be "seen" as an earthquake...(in a worst case would result in M12+ event...blow up the planet...). 

Mega-tsunami's with waves over 100 meter+ did happen in history...not that often and if it happened very likely local events...

So pandemics able to kill billions are "not that common" .....( I still try to keep a sense of humor !)....but that does not mean it can not happen at all ! 

(work in progres goes in in part 4b.... )

As for earthquakes, I agree with you that they do put things into perspective. We forget that we're here for but the blink of an eye. I haven't felt any earthquakes recently which is unusual but we have had a series of sonic booms happening that have been put down to meteors entering earth's atmostphere above us. I'd love to find one on our land as they can be worth a fortune. There was one last Saturday at 3pm but it sailed over us and over the mountains, but I live in hope. I'm always on the look out for a newly formed crater.  

part 5 (I will leave it by these 5 parts-time is the limit not news/info-overload), 

Music-Alice Cooper - Wellcome To My Nightmare - 1975 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kum-q6RfPAw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kum-q6RfPAw (He also has a version with the muppets...AC had a good working relation with Kermit the frog...) 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/economics-in-the-pandemic/929683-covid-19-omicron-variant-threatens-to-intensify-supply-shortages-and-inflation-oecd-warns[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/economics-in-the-pandemic/929683-covid-19-omicron-variant-threatens-to-intensify-supply-shortages-and-inflation-oecd-warns ; The Omicron coronavirus variant threatens to intensify imbalances that are slowing growth and raising costs, the OECD said on Wednesday as it significantly increased its inflation forecasts from three months ago.

The new variant, which was identified last week, could delay the world economy’s return to normality, the Paris-based international organisation of largely rich country members warned. Monetary policymakers should be “cautious”, the OECD added, saying that the most urgent policy requirement was to accelerate deployment of Covid vaccines globally.

The recommendations came alongside its twice yearly economic outlook, which left global growth forecasts similar to those three months ago but significantly raised expected inflation.

Across the G20, the OECD raised its inflation forecast for 2022 from 3.9 per cent in its September predictions to 4.4 per cent now. The largest increases were in the US and UK, where inflation forecasts for next year rose in both countries from 3.1 per cent to 4.4 per cent.
...https://www.ft.com/content/9e5dfa00-...2-fe6c3aeb11f5

DJ  You need an economy to have some form of public healthcare for all/most...Point is "we" have been using the wrong weights to find a balance...Once things get out of balance you may see much more risks for society...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/929272-covid-patients-aged-2-and-under-most-likely-to-go-to-hospital-in-south-african-epicentre[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/929272-covid-patients-aged-2-and-under-most-likely-to-go-to-hospital-in-south-african-epicentre ; 

I am going to give an opinion here....

If the news article at the top, Covid patients aged 2 and under most likely to go to hospital in South African epicentre, is correct in this sentence:

then this issue may be the main reason for such quick response by governments around the world.

It has been my belief that the pandemic up to this point has been a "moderate" pandemic. Of course for those who have gotten badly sick or died it has been anything but moderate. But when viewed from a historical standpoint it has not been a severe pandemic such as the 1918 Spanish Flu or the Black Plague Pandemics centuries ago. 

On the other side would be the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic which would be considered a mild pandemic. I have held that when/if the present Covid pandemic begins to badly effect children in large numbers then it will quickly become a Severe pandemic. 

If what is described in the news article mentioned above is a beginning glimpse of what is to come all around the world then we may have entered the most terrible pandemic wave up to this point. 

It is really too soon to know much of anything with any certainty yet about Omicron though. So we have to wait and watch for more data and information. But if the children appear to be the main victims of this coming wave then every government in the world would be wise to respond strongly. And we as individuals should do likewise.

DJ We do not have to "wait and watch" stop the spreads, close schools...there are so many things we could and should do right now ! Children are most not vaccinated around the globe...If Omicron starts killing them by the millions we have "waited and watched" much to long ! ACT NOW !!!!

A "last post";

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream latests;

Comments on a UK specific report but has some good insights for all about thinking and decision making in this pandemic.
Quote Tweet
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group
@COVID19actuary
· Dec 2
What does the recent House of Commons report on ‘Coronavirus lessons learned to date’ tell us about groupthink and cognitive bias in making crisis decisions? As the world seeks better understanding of a new variant we consider lessons learned in the UK. https://covidactuaries.org/2021/12/0...ion-making/…
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Louis Rossouw
@lrossouw
·
Dec 2
Cases are still rising in South Africa. Last night over 8 500 cases were reported. If we break the cases up by specimen received date and allow for some late reporting we probably had just under 6,000 cases on the 30th and the 7-day moving average is at 3,862.

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Louis Rossouw
@lrossouw
·
Dec 2
Other provinces have lower case numbers but cases are rising rapidly with R in most provinces above 2 and certainly above 1.5 in all but Northern Cape where R is just touching 1 now.

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Louis Rossouw
@lrossouw
·
Dec 2
Details available here: https://unsupervised.online/static/covid-19/estimating_r_za.html

DJ "Groupthink" Media-Experts-Politics (MEP) "powers that be" seem to go in hiding in their own pseudo reality ...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBWmkwaTQ0k[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBWmkwaTQ0k "Downfall"; In the eyes of Hitler's infamous secretary, Traudl Junge (Alexandra Maria Lara, The Reader), optimism crumbles into grim realization and terror as it becomes clear that Germany's defeat is inevitable. As the Russian army circles the city, the dimly lit halls of the underground refuge become an execution chamber for the Führer and his closest advisors.

DJ [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html Whether via climate collapse, this pandemic, many other possibilities/combinations "survival of the human species" may be under "increased pressure"....at best 'politics somehow may be following developments" , they are no longer in control....

Stay safe & sane...hope to be very, very wrong ! I would love this pandemic to be over by tomorrow ! If taking ten vaccines per day would help I may even be willing to think about that....

For now limited/no contacts at all may be offering best protection...But I know that living in a social bubble in a suburb-good house with garden and stocks is the luxery position...

Dutch Josh, I can see that you are worried about this new variant and I want to mention something to you that might well give you some reassurance. It's to do with the research that's been underway for a  number of years now into personal genetics, most specifically into my favourite gene, the CCR5-Delta32 mutation. The research has shown that 10% of Caucasians carry this mutation and the descendents of the survivors of the Black Death in the village of Eyam were traced and their genes mapped and they found out that it's possible to have 2 copies of this mutation. You can inherit one from each of your parents. For those people who had 1 mutation, they caught the Black Death but they recovered from it, and those who had 2 mutations never caught it. This explains why there are reports of a single monk or nun who survived in a monastery and tended to the sick and never succumbed. 

More recently the researchers looked at prostitutes in Africa who have unprotected sex with many HIV positive men and even after years of this work have never become HIV+ themselves. Well they were found to carry this mutation. So my suggestion to you is this, if you have a bit of spare cash why not get the test for this gene. It's widely available. It's a saliva test like any of the home genetic tests and is very popular in the gay community for obvious reasons. I keep meaning to get myself tested but with a house full  of teenagers there are always more urgent calls on my purse, but one day I will do it. If you did it and found that you had one or two copies of this gene then that would be great. The research has shifted towards the Delta32 mutation and Covid and the early indications are very positive. What do you think?

Part 2 - DJ, Limited by time more then by news/info a (grim) look at twitter etc. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream latests; Gauteng hospital data. Hospitalization is now up 6x compared to a couple weeks ago. 604 cases in ICU. Most likely about a third of these will become fatalities.

-

If it follows the progression of other variants this is a little early to expect to see deaths. The first week is the active viral phase then week 2 the virus begins to clear but the immune pathology kicks in, by week 3 most are beginning to get better but some will progress to severe disease, week four onward those that are not going to make will start to appear in the statistics. Given this typical time scale a month ago there were not enough cases to be picked up by sequencing. In short it is too soon to know where this variant will fit amongst the others in terms of morbidity and mortality.

DJ So new cases now a certain percentage will be new deaths after 3/4 weeks (around Christmas). 

 Summary: 1. There is early evidence that the #OmicronVariant = more transmissible + poses an increased risk 4 reinfection 2. We don't know what Omicron's impact is on severe disease - cases are mild so far, but = takes time 2 fall very ill, so we need 2 wait for better data.
DJ (Using [url]https://twitter.com/miamalan[/url] or https://twitter.com/miamalan Twitter seems to be the dominant form of communication in this crisis...) 

Michelle Groome and Waasila Jassat: 1. SA's 7-day moving average of new daily #COVID19 cases has increased from 332 on 16 Nov to 4,814 on 1 Dec (particularly high increase over the last 2 days) 2. This increase is unprecedented (higher than in any other wave)

DJ Testing/reporting capacity may be the limit for global cases NOT going over the 1 million+ this month...(NL may have had 60,000/80,000 cases per day last week but testing capacity was around 100,000 per day...with between 1 in 5/1 in 4 tests positive reported NL cases were/are between 20,000 and 25,000...So NL government is telling people to switch to at-home testing...They may use less testing positive numbers to claim their strategy is working...).

Also some German scientists on twitter claiming real German cases were 2x/3x reported cases...ZOE-UK tracker app also often has 2x official reported cases...With also very limited testing in countries we keep poor the real number of cases must have been above 1 million a lot of times...India alone may be in 1 million+ cases...they are just not reporting/testing that many...

Test positivity rates are a good indication of how rapidly a virus is spreading. + rate = nr of tests coming out +. Over the past week SA's test +rate for #COVID19 has increased from 1-2% to Thurday's 22.4%. Increases over the last 3 days have been particularly high.

DJ The WHO norm was <5% of cases positive (ECDC <3%) so over 20% of tests being positive for CoViD is bad !

Some (other) twitter; [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ;

With still a month left, 2021 has already doubled 2020's cumulative number of confirmed cases. Deaths increased a little less, "only" 77%. The Y-axis is adjusted to a 2% CFR, so whenever cases are above deaths, YTD CFR is running below 2% & vice versa. Thanks to 

@OurWorldInData

!

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DJ Of course this is all based on tested/reported cases....most likely december will be the worst month in 2021 pandemic-wise...

Minnesota man with Omicron met about 35 friends at Anime NYC and about half of them have since tested positive for COVID - WaPo

-

When her data started to show reinfections going up, “I thought something was wrong”,  

@SACEMAdirector

 told 

@GretchenVogel1

. Then, “wastewater sampling started showing increases, labs started showing significant increases in positive cases, and other bells started going off.”

DJ We have seen this all before in this pandemic...new variants high speed spread, lots of reinfections...

Double Individual Speculator

@x2IndSpeculator

·

10 u

Interestingly, the bloc of Europe (excl. Russia) + the United States & Canada is now at 75% of all global confirmed cases & 55% deaths. During summer that share had fallen to 10%, so this chart shows how the epicenter of the pandemic shifts throughout the year across the globe.

DJ

I have my doubts still on when Omicron started in Europe...The 4 diplomats arriving in Botswana november 7, testing positive-for what turned out to be Omicron-november 11 makes me wonder from what richer country these diplomats came...If it was a poor country we would know by now where these diplomats came from. The longer it is kept secret the more suspicion I get...(If those 4 diplomats came from UK, US, NL, Russia, China or even Egypt, Nigeria, Indonesia, Vietnam then Botswana will "value good relationships" for a long time...With all respect but if these diplomats came from Niger, Mali, Chad, Haïti like countries we would know these diplomats were spreading Omicron by now...No doubt it will be in the news soon enough...).

So my main take-away is that growth looks fast in a country with immunity mostly from vaccines, rather than previous infection (and with a big ongoing Delta wave). We'll know a lot more soon, but this is not reassuring.

DJ [url]https://twitter.com/jcbarret[/url] or https://twitter.com/jcbarret being retweeted...Of course it is limited data...And it is very likely vaccines offering less protection for severe disease against some Delta sub-variants...may even offer less protection with Omicron...

And I can say it over and over "STOP THE SPREAD" !!! LOCKDOWN NOW !!!! but acting much to little much to late has made this pandemic a political disaster. The outcome most likely will be;

Ridhwaan Suliman

@rid1tweets

·

13 u

I really hate this graph!  #Gauteng #COVID19 #4thWave #Omicron #OmicronVariant

DJ Statistics going vertical...first for cases then for deaths....

I am willing to believe this weekend may see a lot of talks in lots of governments...next week may bring more restrictions (at best...) But the signs are that clear ! Why many governments keep giving variants all room to spread ??? Beyond crazy !!!

Stupidity rules !!! SA is open & honest and all they get for it is isolation (so also NO medical gear...maybe China will jump in ?) and most countries simply-again-ignoring SA alarming info !

With Wuhan early 2020 one could claim China did report a lot of info in Chinese...Intel should (at least I hope) have people that speak/read Chinese....So I find it still "bizarre" to see claims China did not give info then...SA is giving info now...in ENGLISH !!!!! (for heaven's sake !!!) and it is still being ignored !!!!

Can't fix stupid...even if Stupid will kill us all.....I hate that !!!

End of part 2...I need a drink..it is still early morning but if I had whisky ....@#$%! *$@(& !!!

Just some latest;

-ME163 (on Belgian Hippos with Covid/latest news) mentioned Asian pigs somehow infected with Omicron...I did not find a link for that-yet-but the story makes sense for me....So if any of you have links-please ? 

-[url]https://norwaytoday.info/news/more-than-90-corona-cases-confirmed-after-christmas-dinner-party-in-oslo/[/url] or https://norwaytoday.info/news/more-than-90-corona-cases-confirmed-after-christmas-dinner-party-in-oslo/ ; 

The number of infection cases after the Christmas dinner party in Oslo, where at least 13 participants were infected with the omicron variant, has increased to over 90, according to the newspaper VG.

60 of the infected attended the Christmas dinner party of the Scatec company. In addition, more than 30 other guests at the nightclub Louise at Aker Brygge have been infected, assistant district doctor in the Frogner district told VG on Saturday.

Thirteen of the infected have been infected with the omicron variant. The variant was confirmed via sequencing.

“All of the infected people are in isolation, and all their close contacts are in quarantine,” Ravlo said.

Source: © NTB Scanpix / #Norway Today / #NorwayTodayNews

An earlier Norway story ; [url]https://norwaytoday.info/news/norways-fhi-as-of-december-3-we-have-19-omicron-positive-samples/[/url] or https://norwaytoday.info/news/norways-fhi-as-of-december-3-we-have-19-omicron-positive-samples/ ; 

As of December 3, 19 positive samples with the omicron variant had been confirmed in Norway, according to a press release from the National Institute of Public Health (FHI).

The 19 cases include two cases in Øygarden Municipality, 13 confirmed cases related to the Christmas dinner party in Oslo, and four travelers to Oslo Airport Gardermoen from South Africa.

“The most important thing now is that those who are infected, and their close contacts, follow the rules on isolation and quarantine,” FHI department director Line Vold stated.

Most laboratories have screening methods that can detect viruses that are not the dominant delta variant or provide a preliminary answer as to whether a corona sample is a case of the omicron variant.

According to the press release, the FHI aims to report confirmed omicron cases daily from and including Monday, December 6.

DJ So two other introductions beside the Christmas party in Norway...

Here in NL [url]https://twitter.com/GrauweGrutjes/status/1467002014148308993/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/GrauweGrutjes/status/1467002014148308993/photo/1 NL government per nov.22 stopped updating percentage tests with  "positive results"...then claiming NL R0 was under 1....

Kai Kupferschmidt

@kakape

·

23 u

I’m so tired of this but I’ll say it once more: If #omicron turns out to be as dangerous as it well might and we once again do little to prepare for it with the time we have, then we are compounding the biggest collective political failure I have witnessed in my lifetime.

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DJ Again politics turned this virus into a pandemic...importing the virus/variants via free-air-travel around the globe....

[url]https://bnonews.com/index.php/2021/11/omicron-tracker/[/url] or https://bnonews.com/index.php/2021/11/omicron-tracker/ also trying to follow numbers...updated several times per day but doing an impossible job...Omicron is exploding...Some experts claim because Omicron is better in evading immunity, but less infectious otherwise then Delta...

[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/7-cases-of-omicron-variant-now-confirmed-in-israel-with-27-more-suspected/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/7-cases-of-omicron-variant-now-confirmed-in-israel-with-27-more-suspected/ ; 

The Health Ministry said Friday morning that there are seven confirmed cases in Israel of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus.

The ministry said two of those cases were fully inoculated with three doses of the Pfizer vaccine (one traveler from South Africa, the other from the United Kingdom) and one person who traveled from Malawi had received AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine.

The remaining four cases were people who had traveled from South Africa and were unvaccinated.

The ministry said there were a further 27 cases of the coronavirus which had not yet been confirmed to be the Omicron strain, but officials were of a “high suspicion” that they were the new variant.

Of those 27 cases, eight had recently traveled from abroad recently or had contact with somebody who had.

(Translation; Omicron is spreading high speed in Israel....)

DJ Some "news agencies" reporting "no confirmed Omicron-deaths", misleading...Southern Africa numbers of deaths going up high speed/vertical...but they may have not seen sequencing...Most western cases are less then 1 week old...some of them likely will worsen...

-It is to early to tell what exactly "immunity" does with/against Omicron...I would hate to see ADE....but immunity also so far does not do much to stop Omicron-infections....

If some pigs (in Asia or wherever) would have tested positive for Omicron (and it is a big "if" I would find links for that...it would show up at twitter) then again that would be "very alarming" ! 

-On this forum Cobber is "our ray of sunshine" ; first claiming this pandemic would be over in 30 days...Now claiming "Omicron/SARS-2" is not worse then the HongKong Flu.....I would love to be able to believe such claims !!!

I also would love to believe "vaccines will save us" but-sorry-I do not see that in what I find....

I do believe however-from this forum-Omicron may have picked up some RNA from a common corona-cold-virus...Maybe even Omicron somehow related to non-human spread...one way or another in the development of Omicron some animal did play "some" role...

Stay safe and sane !

KiwiMum-Love the story ! Will look (further) for fitting music ! Thanks !

Happy winter/summer solstice....[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrUqjNqyloo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrUqjNqyloo on the background....(another churchservice...I hoped for a concert...mmmm)

Magic-turning the light of in a big, (c)old church....slow singing, de-stressing....For me Mary=[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isis[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isis , Christmas-with all respect-going back hundreds of thousends of years in human history, people celebrating days start to get longer again...Start of a new life-cycle....

The acoustics of a church will produce "extra (echo) voices"...."angels"...(I think it is okay to believe in angels, heaven...it is not okay to believe in devils, hell...Believe in the "go(o)d" not the "bad"....)

Does religion/worldview matter ? I think it does...I expect to end up in a "recycle center for the death" after my death...reïncarnation...the basics everlasting. 

For "christianity" itself I have "limited respect", it has been a form of totalitarism for centuries...burning people, stopping science and enjoying live....Religion-for me-is hate-related, not much to do with "love", only words....

-If Omicron is as bad as I think-and I am trying to get a picture still-"there will be lots of people dying soon"....Lots of questions and grief for those that survived it all....I would love to believe Omicron=mild...do not (yet) see it....Average after infection to death I believe was around 4 weeks....

Numbers; 530,432 new cases on a sunday is a high number...5,692 deaths reported. Global trends, cases +6%, deaths +0,2%...

Eswatini, Zimbabwe, Mozambique all report an increase of cases of 1,000%+ ...testing is limited but it was limited all the time...Namibia +537%, SA +432%, Malawi +196%, Zambia +93%, Kenya +86%, Madagascar +82%....however Botswana -15%, Angola -18%...Do these two countries have better strategies ? Or worse testing ? 

[url]https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/world/botswana-diplomats-omicron-europe.html[/url] or https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/world/botswana-diplomats-omicron-europe.html ; The four diplomats testing positive for what turned out to be Omicron november 11 "came from Europe"...DJ-I think they came from the UK...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bechuanaland_Protectorate[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bechuanaland_Protectorate historic ties but also UK statistics for CoViD give me that idea....

The UK closing air-links with the SA region because of Omicron-the UK diplomats may have brought-fits in a pattern of cynicism...I hope more evidence will show up...If Omicron started in the UK, is mostly mild, we may learn a lot...(both about Omicron and BoJo...the two main diseases...).

Europe cases/deaths trends c=+2%, d=+0,6%...North America cases +24%, deaths +19%, Africa cases +161% (!!!) deaths -19%...but first you have to have cases going up before you may expect deaths going up...There is a 3-4 week delay in those numbers. 

Statistics for Omicron not being updated (yet) at [url]https://bnonews.com/index.php/2021/11/omicron-tracker/[/url] or https://bnonews.com/index.php/2021/11/omicron-tracker/ and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics ...

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream latests all paint a picture of Omicron spreading faster but with less healthissues...A sort of "good news" claim I would like to be confirmed in other ways...Statistics for deaths in many SA region countries going down (still) could be such "good news" but I want to stay very cautious...

1. In Europe deaths-trend in many countries still going up, also in the US (but maybe statistics info "destabilized" by the long thanksgiving weekend, Mexico, Canada deaths trend downward...

2. Delta was "hard to beat", what if Omicron is just "a short wave" a pause...Delta or another variant showing up after that ? 

3. Some other regions/counties (Argentina +27% cases, Vietnam cases +13%, deaths +36%) may have other variants...Since we fail to limit travel to only essential other variants may show up...

4. Israel cases +106%, deaths -50%...but again deaths follow most of the time 3-4 weeks later...Portugal cases +16%, deaths +15%...Both countries went for vaccinations/boosters...may give some warning/indication...

5. SA region young population, lots of HIV problems, most of the region low/limited vaccinations - high "natural immunity after infection"...Population in many ways different from north part of the globe moving into winter...

End of part 1, part 2 a look at twitter etc. what is their view ? 

Again-I do not know that much about healthissues, trying to get a picture from what I read...Many governments fall back to "if we can not control a crisis, we control the news on the crisis..." so a bit sceptical...

part 3, 

[url]https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-97-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-29-november-2021/sage-97-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-29-november-2021[/url] or https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-97-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-29-november-2021/sage-97-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-29-november-2021 SAGE-UK report and [url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding (US) trying to translate SA info in to what to expect for UK/US and the rest of this world...

Like others "more data" is needed...

DJ We by now knowm Omicron is both better in spreading and evading immunity...but that it does not mean Omicron will bring more/severe disease...There are "very limited and much to early" indications Omicron-so far-brings less severe disease for most in SA...

However; 

-North part of the globe is moving towards winter.

-Many countries have a much older age population.

-Unclear what immunity evasion will bring...

-Healthcare overstretched by far....

So "event-background" story; Background is at best limited care capacity....Event is high number infections going up high speed...

Lots of open questions...still. (And that also influences how we will deal with this pandemic the coming years).

WitchMisspelled; are you giving a guarantee on life not carrying a guarantee ? 

DJ; [url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_B ;

Your daily reminder that transmissibility displays exponential properties and lethality/severity linear properties. That means increased transmissibility is much worse from a population point of view than increased severity. How many politicians get this? How many doctors do?

45

617

1,2K

DJ A pandemic ALWAYS is complex ! 

Making it a "blame-game" is making getting out of this crisis harder....Would more vaccines for "countries we kept poor" have stopped/slowed down Omicron...when "four diplomats from Europe"  (UK most likely) preparing to leave Botswana nov.11 were the first testing positive for this variant ? 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/12/05/23153-new-coronavirus-infections-well-average-covid-hospital-patients[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/12/05/23153-new-coronavirus-infections-well-average-covid-hospital-patients ; The number of Covid-19 patients in Dutch hospitals increased slightly after two consecutive days of decreasing figures. 

DJ Since testing capacity is at the maximum a higher number of cases means more people testing positive....Since hospitals are at the maximum more people have to stay at home...beds is not the problem, staff/HCW-ers is...."decreasing number of patients" is misleading...fake news ! Not giving the full picture....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics  (will be updated...) UK now at #1 for confirmed Omicron cases, 246, SA 227, Zimbabwe 50...But Norway (a.o.) numbers not updated...Norway-Oslo Christmas party now may have 100 out of 120 people testing positive...

New Study on Mask Effectiveness: Uninfected three meters from infected person is infected in less than five minutes with near 100% certainty. If both wear FFP2 (like N95/KN95) masks, the risk drops to about 1 in 1000. Efficacy at 1 hour: 99.6%

DJ Would it not be wiser to spent all our energy on optimizing all the tools we have then-endless-keep just pushing on one tool (vaccines) ? In NL, lots of other countries QR-code vaccine passports for the vaccinated remain having a legal states even if that vaccinated did test positive....(DJ-In highly vaccinated countries most of the spread (Delta) was allready in vaccinated...Omicron will worsen that picture...) .

Masks work when you put them on correctly...vaccines take 2-3 weeks...in this stage using masks should be priority #1 !

We should be in LOCKDOWN NOW !!!! Stop (95% of) air-travel...but both lockdowns and most air travel is not even being discussed....[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ;

DJ Healthcare allready is overstreched beyond care capacity. Even if most cases would be mild-the problem is in the very high numbers...Doubling every 3 days...UK 1,5% on nov.28, would have been 3% dec 1, 6% december 4...12 % december 7....should show up in exploding statistics coming week. 

From Norway ; [url]https://norwaytoday.info/news/a-total-of-916-new-corona-infection-cases-have-been-registered-in-oslo-in-the-last-24-hours/[/url] or https://norwaytoday.info/news/a-total-of-916-new-corona-infection-cases-have-been-registered-in-oslo-in-the-last-24-hours/ ; 

A total of 916 new corona-infected people have been registered in Oslo in the last 24 hours. That is 567 more than the same day last week.

Oslo Municipality has not yet released further information or details regarding the development of infection in the last 24 hours.

A new daily infection record was registered in the capital on Wednesday, with 1,075 new corona infection cases.

Source: © NTB Scanpix / #Norway Today / #NorwayTodayNews

DJ There may be some confusion still on how many Omicron cases are detected so far in Norway/Oslo...(Sequencing-results should be available early coming week). 

[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-reports-4-more-omicron-infections-bringing-total-to-11/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-reports-4-more-omicron-infections-bringing-total-to-11/ ; 

The Health Ministry on Sunday reported another four cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant, raising the number of confirmed infections in Israel from the highly mutated strain to 11.

The new infections included a man who the ministry said was exposed to someone who had recently returned from South Africa, the first apparent case of Omicron to be contracted in the country.

The man had received three doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine.

Two of the other cases were people returning from France, both of whom had been administered three shots of the Pfizer vaccine.

The fourth infection occurred in a man who arrived from the United States. He was inoculated with Moderna’s vaccine and had received a booster shot. 

Of the 11 Omicron cases verified by Israel, four were unvaccinated. One woman, a tourist from Malawi, was vaccinated with AstraZeneca’s shot. All the other vaccinated cases had received a booster.

The Health Ministry said it was waiting on the results from genetic sequencing of another 24 infections in which there was a “high suspicion” of Omicron. According the ministry, eight of those people were “fully protected,” while the other 16 were either unvaccinated or 6 months had passed since they had recovered from COVID or received their initial vaccines.

It added that 12 of the suspected cases had returned from abroad or were in contact with someone who returned from overseas. The other 12 had not recently left Israel.

DJ First indications from UK, Norway, Israel may show vaccines have limited protection against catching/spreading Omicron (MASKS !!!) . How severe cases will become we soon will learn...

[url]https://www.dw.com/en/omicron-mideast-countries-prepare-for-the-new-coronavirus-variant/a-60012848[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/omicron-mideast-countries-prepare-for-the-new-coronavirus-variant/a-60012848 ; 

This week, most Middle Eastern countries reacted in one way or the other to the new omicron coronavirus variant.

So far only Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have recorded omicron infections. But amid omicron-related concerns, Lebanese health authorities have just announced a night curfew for people who have not been vaccinated or are without a recent negative PCR test, starting on December 17.

For three weeks, people in these categories will not be allowed to leave their homes between 7 p.m and 6 a.m. It is yet to be announced what kind of penalties are planned if the rules are violated.

DJ; Omicron in countries "liberated by NATO (almost)" Libya, Iraq, Yemen, Syria have hardly any (public) healthcare left...

"China and Russia have stepped up their efforts in vaccine diplomacy" in the region, Professor Eckart Woertz, director of Middle East Studies at the Hamburg-based German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA), told DW. 

As early as last March, Wang Yi, China's minister of foreign affairs, celebrated a new joint venture for vaccine production in the United Arab Emirates between the China National Pharmaceutical Group, which is generally referred to as Sinopharm, and the Emirati company Group 42, often abbreviated as G42.

The two companies envision producing up to 200 million doses of Sinopharm vaccine per year in the UAE.

"Morocco and the UAE are both trying to establish their countries as regional Sinopharm hubs," said Woertz. 

Early this year, Morocco signed a contract with Sinopharm and "hopes to turn into a vaccine distribution hub for West Africa," Woertz and co-author Roie Yellinek wrote in a paper in March. 

Russia, on the other hand, has already cut a deal with Egypt.

The underlying idea is that new production facilities for Russia's Sputnik vaccine are to turn Egypt into the main distributor for North Africa. 

DJ If only western companies are "in the market" "market economy", if Russia, China wants to export vaccines it is "vaccine diplomacy/soft power"....If the "west" does not want Russia, China taking over the "MENA market " then they should make a better offer ! (MENA= Middle East North Africa). 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream latests; It is a startling phrase, however, the study shows that the partially vaccinated people had higher viral loads than the fully vaccinated people, and that a high proportion of the deceased were immunocompromised. Given all that, I don't think they are saying there is any direct evidence of ADE, just something that needs further study.

in reaction to ; Saw a startling phrase this morning:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....03.21267155v1

High viral loads: what drives fatal cases of COVID-19 in vaccinees? an autopsy study

Klaus Hirschbuehl, Tina Schaller, et al View ORCID

Background: The rate of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in vaccinees is becoming an increasingly serious issue. Objective: To determine the causes of death, histological organ alteration, and viral spread in relation to demographic, clinical-pathological, viral variants, and vaccine types.

Results: Autopsies were performed on 16 partially and 13 fully vaccinated individuals. Most patients were elderly and suffered from several relevant comorbidities. Real-time RT-PCR (RT-qPCR) identified a significantly increased rate of generalized viral dissemination within the organism in vaccinated cases versus nonvaccinated cases (45% vs. 16%, respectively; P = 0.008). Vaccinated cases also showed high viral loads, reaching Ct values below 10, especially in the upper airways and lungs. This was accompanied by high rates of pulmonal bacterial or mycotic superinfections and the occurrence of immunocompromising factors such as malignancies, immunosuppressive drug intake, or decreased immunoglobulin levels. All these findings were particularly accentuated in
partially vaccinated patients compared to fully vaccinated individuals. A fatal course after vaccination occurred in only 14% of all COVID-19 deceased in Augsburg. Limitations: Restricted number of cases Conclusions: Fatal cases of COVID-19 in vaccinees were rare and often associated with severe comorbidities or other immunosuppressive conditions. Interestingly, we observed striking virus dissemination in our case study, which may indicate a decreased ability to eliminate the virus in patients with an impaired immune system. However, the potential role of antibody-dependent enhancement must also be ruled out in future studies.

If ADE is a factor, Omicron "mild" infections will rip through previously hard-hit areas.

-

Updated 7:41 AM EST, Tue November 30, 2021

By By G. Vanden Bossche, DVM, PhD
...

As the scientifically perverse narrative continues to add fuel to the fire, it is difficult to believe that Omicron will be the end station of the pandemic train that’s out of control. Omicron is likely to start out as a mild disease because short-lived, poorly functional anti-S antibodies (Abs) that resulted from previous asymptomatic infection (e.g., with another previously dominant variant) will no longer recognize Omicron. It is, indeed, highly likely that resistance of Omicron will not be limited to vaccinal Abs but also to naturally induced low affinity Abs that result from asymptomatic/ mild infection. Consequently, Abs from such previous infection would no longer compete with relevant innate Abs for binding to the virus. Individuals who previously contracted asymptomatic/ mild infection will, therefore, be able to fully rely on their first line of immune defense to deal with Omicron. This will leave our ‘experts’ with the impression that the virus (in fact Omicron) is becoming less virulent (than Delta) and is on its way to transit into endemicity. However, the overall pattern of ‘mild’ disease would only prevail until Omicron becomes dominant and causes high infection rates. When this happens, short-lived, low affinity anti-S Abs will start to compete with innate Abs in an increasing part of the population as a direct result of the enhanced likelihood of re-exposure shortly after previous infection. High Omicron infection rates will prevent short-lived, poorly functional anti-S Abs from declining in large parts of the population. This, combined with continued mass vaccination with (inevitable?) anti-Omicron vaccines, will enable large populations to exert immune pressure on Omicron’s infectiousness. None of these immune responses is, however, capable of curtailing viral transmission (it’s now widely acknowledged that the type of C-19 vaccines used by the industry is not capable of blocking transmission)....

DJ It may be to early to say much...however STOP THE SPREAD should be top-priority ! MASKS !!!

KiwiMum, J.Ardern proberbly giving in to economic pressure and "international view (and total lack of wisdom)"...if you are vaccinated or did see infection "you are free".....

DJ

Omicron numbers are exploding...NL almost at record high number of positive tests-with still limited testing capacity...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ "weekend numbers"....424,130 cases trend +5%, 4,245 deaths trend -1%....

Europe trend +0,5% (???), North America cases +22%, Africa +168% !!! (deaths -14%...but cases + so far did see deaths + after weeks...). 

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ;

Gabriel Léger-Mild 

@Gab_H_R

·

7 u

Omicron superspreading event in Denmark  - 150 high school students  party - 55 infected  covid - 53  Omicron positive   38 confirmed via S-gene dropout  15 via genom sequencing

Still early statistics....

15/18 The clustered mutation patterns in the Omicron Spike are reminiscent of those seen in the HIV envelope protein as a consequence of sequentially acquired virus mutations that evade the progressively broadening neutralization potential of a maturing antibody lineage

and; Rather than just small tweaks in the antigenicity of Spike, its ACE2 binding properties or its membrane fusion functions, the clustered "rarely seen" mutations in Omicron’s RBD and fusion domain could cause quite big shifts in the way that Spike works

If I (DJ) fully understood what this means ...

We shouldn't be jumping to any conclusion about #Omicron yet. Quite a mystery. "Omicron mutations impact 348 IEDB T cell epitopes (27.29% of the total) and 550 IEDB B cell epitopes (30.91% of the total). Percentages of other Variants of Concern are significantly lower."

-

Lab study of #OmicronVariant vs human immune system finds 27% of the virus' mutations lower T-cell responses and 30% reduce B cell (antibody) reactions against #SARSCoV2 .  https://bit.ly/3rB8u53

-

DJ How a virus "looks like" will/can tell a virologist on how it will act....If "the words seem to hide meaning" there is a reason for that...

We should be in total lockdown...looks like "learning in a very hard way...."

Take care, stay safe & sane...

End of part 1

Thank you Dutch Josh. I have followed your posts for years and really appreciate all the work you put in :-)

part 1,

The "Action speaks louder then words" latest news may be the shorter version of what I try to do here...Trying to get a view on this pandemic...asking questions-if possible intelligent questions (coffee !!!) .....

DJ, 

Numbers; 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  reporting 448,248 new cases-trend +7%, deaths as far as being reported 5,612 trend +0,9%....Just trying to use statistics/numbers-far from perfect-to base my daily update upon...

-Africa trends cases +160%, deaths -18%. Cases up, deaths down most of the time indicated we were on the start of a new wave....Allthough I do not have the exact number cases-for all of Africa-going up 160% sounds-and most likely is-extreme, alarming ! 

-Europe cases +0,9%, deaths -1%...lots of countries at limits for testing, promoting at-home testing (those kits are cheap in most of Europe-I get the picture they are (very) expensive in (a.o.) the US....lots of governments are giving away DIY-home tests for free, to schools, low income groups...lots of workplaces promote them....Organized PCR testing is more expensive...more cynical...if people test at home "positive tests will go down=succes"...

At home tests are believed 90% reliable...allthough Omicron is reported to escape lots of tests and is going up high speed. Worldwide CoViD-cases still are Delta...[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=B.1.1.529&loc&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=B.1.1.529&loc&selected is using sequencing-data...running behind a lot....

-North America trends cases +38%, deaths +25%...most still will be Delta....US cases +44%, deaths +36% also related to both delayed testing/reporting and spread due to the Thanksgiving weekend....

December will be a bad month for monitoring...Christmas- New Year may see limited testing and reporting....

-Both South America (-6%) and Asia (-5%) cases going down...however China cases +218% (last week 167, this week 531), Israel cases up +104% (last week 1,811, this week 3,694), Pakistan cases +29%, South Korea +28%, Japan +20%, ...Vietnam cases still +8% [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/viet-nam/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/viet-nam/ cases exploded this summer....[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=VNM[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=VNM latest info november 27. Very limited sampling/samples, Delta AY.57 supposed to be dominant ??????

In South America Afgentina cases +19%...both for Vietnam/Laos and "South America" I wonder what variant is spreading...will we face another surprise...missed so far by very poor testing/sequencing....Global healthcare faillure ? 

-Oceania cases +5%....French Polynesia may see lots of "transfer" from "other parts of France"...cases +3,976% (last week 17, this week 693). Former French colonies now are "departments of France oversea"....I do not know how healthcare control works for travel "inside France".....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics gives info on Omicron spread but evenmore on the speed of sequencing....Denmarks sequences 50% of all its cases, UK and SA also good at sequencing...By now there will be tens-of-thousends+ Omicron cases....To be realistic Omicron must have killed hundreds...but they only were tested for CoViD...not (yet) for Omicron....

-Another news item;

[url]https://www.rt.com/russia/542355-putin-modi-talks-results/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/russia/542355-putin-modi-talks-results/ ; President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India, where he met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has yielded multiple new deals. A joint statement released by the Kremlin reveals just how wide-ranging the Russian-Indian interests are.

-

Trade in pharmaceutical products remains “one of the main items of India’s exports to Russia,” with the two countries seeking to bolster their cooperation in the field even further.

The Covid-19 crisis has, in fact, provided more opportunities for the nations to cooperate, with the two leaders expressing “gratitude to each other’s countries for timely assistance during the pandemic.”

India’s Serum Institute, which is the world's largest vaccine maker, has been making a localized version of Russia’s pioneering Sputnik V vaccine, aiming to produce 300 million doses a year.

DJ; Western media may have given you the wrong impression that India and the US are partners (against China).....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Russia_relations[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Russia_relations ; 

India–Russia relations (Russian: Российско-индийские отношения; Hindi: भारत-रूस सम्बन्ध) are the bilateral relations between India and Russia. During the Cold War, India and the Soviet Union (USSR) had a strong strategic, military, economic and diplomatic relationship. After the Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia inherited its close relationship with India which resulted in both nations sharing a Special Relationship. Russia and India both term this relationship as a "special and privileged strategic partnership" . Owing to the bonhomie shared by the countries' respective leaders, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin, the bilateral relationship has seen further growth and development. An informal meeting between them in 2018 at Sochi helped accelerate the partnership, displaying the role of interaction and cooperation between India and Russia.

Traditionally, the Indo-Russian strategic partnership has been built on five major components: politics, defence, civil nuclear energy, anti-terrorism co-operation and space.^[1] These five major components were highlighted in a speech given by former Indian Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai in Russia.^[1] However, in recent years a sixth, economic component has grown in importance, with both countries setting a target of reaching US$30 billion in bilateral trade by 2025,^[2][3] from about US$9.4 billion in the year 2017.^[4] In order to meet this goal, both countries are looking to develop a free trade agreement.^[5][6][7] Bilateral trade between both countries in 2012 grew by over 24%.^[7]

DJ Russia and India have been partners since India independence....China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor is "new" after trump dumped Pakistan as a partner....Both India and Pakistan are member of  the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation  Iran is in the procedures of becoming a member, 

Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia are having talks with the S.C.O.  [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia%E2%80%93Russia_relations[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia%E2%80%93Russia_relations ...Indonesia is NOT on the S.C.O. list....I expect they may find other ways, like Africa, South America to integrate in a post colonial world...It is "the West" that is getting isolated.....(with "peace keeping-wars" going wrong etc.). 

This pandemic is speeding up Asian cooperation.....

End of part 1...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/12/07/36-omicron-cases-found-nl-many-hospitals-scrap-planned-procedures[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/12/07/36-omicron-cases-found-nl-many-hospitals-scrap-planned-procedures ; Forty-one Dutch hospitals, almost six in ten, can no longer provide scheduled care. Last week, there were still 25, reported the Dutch Healthcare Authority (NZa). This concerns non-critical treatments like knee, hip, and cataract surgery.

-

The Omicron variant had already been found in 18 people who arrived by plane on November 26 from South Africa, the country where the new variant was first identified. People who fly to the Netherlands from southern Africa can have themselves tested after arrival at Schiphol, but they can also do this later at a GGD test location. Fourteen Omicron infections have been identified so far in this group of people.

The RIVM is also examining some older test samples. Four Omicron cases were found in this way. 

DJ So most NL Omicron-cases very likely travel related....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/south-africa-covid-19/930370-south-africa-hospitals-jammed-with-omicron-patients[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/south-africa-covid-19/930370-south-africa-hospitals-jammed-with-omicron-patients ; Some South Africa hospital wards are jammed with patients infected with the omicron coronavirus variant as President Cyril Ramaphosa urged South Africans on Monday to get vaccinated.

In the past week, cases have reached more than 16,000, up dramatically from 2,300 last Monday, according to South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases.

The NICD says the increase in cases in such a short period of time is “unprecedented” in the trajectory of the pandemic, now in its fourth phase in the country.
“Unfortunately, we’re seeing a more than doubling of hospital admissions each day,” said Ian Sanne, an infectious diseases specialist who serves on South Africa’s COVID-19 presidential advisory committee.

snip https://www.voanews.com/a/south-afri...-/6340912.html

DJ (Also a mention for dr.j.c. claiming "things look good in SA - non sense) [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; Gauteng is already above its August weekly hospital admissions. At the bottom Gauteng was 1/4 of the total, then jumped to 1/2, then peaked at 2/3 & now its share is coming down again. Thus, as #Omicron spreads across SA, it's reasonable to expect total admissions will break 10k.

-

Also, notice how severity among the currently hospitalized patients increased in Gauteng in only five days. On December 2: ICU 106/1350=7.8% & ventilated 30/1350=2.2% On December 7: ICU 177/1810=9.8% & ventilated 51/1810=2.8%

-

Unfortunately, I have only Gauteng, December 2. But, compare how much the old numbers increased 5 days later. 46: 300->319 47: 788->847 Even epiweek 44 isn't "THE" bottom in hospital admissions anymore because it increased 126->135. We can be sure this is not THE final 48 number.

DJ Also other twitters paint a darker picture...[url]https://twitter.com/twenseleers[/url] or https://twitter.com/twenseleers ; Omicron spreads exceptionally fast in South Africa (R value around 3). In the UK early data suggest it spreads at least as fast. And in contrast to SA that's in a highly vaccinated population. To be expected if it's an immune escape variant. https://mobile.twitter.com/AlastairGrant4/status/1468151959957950466

DJ [url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 ; 

and 

DJ If you end up with 4x more cases in a week-Omicron would have to give at least 4x less severe disease if you do want to see less pressure on healthcare...I simply do not see that ! 

It is beyond absurd we let Omicron simply spread...government inaction....; Also early suggestions (I've not seen this UKHSA report, but quoted here) that perhaps the generation may be shorter, and people maybe infectious earlier. This is important, because it could mean more rapid growth & make contact tracing less effective:

[url]https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-variant-may-cause-symptoms-sooner-after-infection-as-uk-cases-rise-to-160-12485998?s=08[/url] or https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-variant-may-cause-symptoms-sooner-after-infection-as-uk-cases-rise-to-160-12485998?s=08 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920558-us-surveillance-data-shows-white-tailed-deer-exposed-to-sars-cov-2[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920558-us-surveillance-data-shows-white-tailed-deer-exposed-to-sars-cov-2 one of latest; This person has a theory that spreading human sewage sludge (biosolids) could have heavily exposed deer to sars2. He's got maps and timing to support his theory. Search for the words"sewage sludge". https://theethicalskeptic.com/2021/1...as-march-2018/

DJ Does human-infected-sewage spread CoViD ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latest;

As we continue to move forward in this pandemic and consider the messaging of governments, it is important to consider what they do, and not what they say.

Is a variant supposedly mild? What are world governments doing?

Is a variant thought to be severe? What are they doing?

Apply this also to such things as the global supply chain, potential war, social unrest....etc. Weigh what they are doing, and ask yourself why they are doing it.

This has absolutely nothing to do with politics or the type of governmental system in question. Rather it is matter of looking at the things being implemented with a pragmatic eye as to "why".

There are a few old sayings that can guide the process of evaluation. ----"Where there is smoke there is fire."----"When you hear hoofbeats, look for horses not zebras."----"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." (Hanlons razor) The list can go on.

The common man (such as many of us here) will never be privy to the decision making of the world government's decision makers. We have to work from incomplete data. But if we watch carefully, and not allow ourselves to be caught up in conspiracy theories or paranoia, then we might just be able to discern what is going on enough to respond appropriately.

DJ, 

If we would be in a "war against CoViD" it starts to look a bit like the Korean War 1950/53 (??? without any peace treary so not ended ?). I believe it was 1951 when "UN forces" (the Soviet Union had decided to boycot the UN-so "the west" did take over...) came to close to the Chinese border...Mao came to power in 1949...so millions of well trained Chinese forces came to help North Korea ( with a Stalinist government-The Soviet Union did "send Japan home" there in 1945....Korea still-with China-is united in hate against Japan....). 

UN forces were allmost kicked out of Korea (by China)...McArthur I believe came up with "nuke them" plans....Main problem was the Soviet Union at that time also had "the A-bomb"....

In this pandemic Omicron is "kicking out" all progress made the past two years....It did not only overrun our vaccination- and immunity bridgeheads...it is now in every corner of the Earth...

Big question is what to do ? Answer seems to be "save the economy" (with "vaccines still work" as a slogan..."it is only mild" lies...).

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

Reported cases 598,902 (with lots of countries limiting testing...like NL claiming cases go down...lies, propaganda !) trend  +8%..

Deaths as far as reported (most deaths will be of "old age" , "other health issues" to keep CoViD-deaths statistics low...)  7,913 +2%..

At least the statistics-info is limited....other info is simply to much to try to get an overview...

Regions;

-Europe cases +2%, deaths -0,8% ( there are some extra rules, but most of the lower cases in some countries related to lower testing...NL had close to 27% of the test positive...shocking ! Omicron may be missed in (some) testing....) . Deaths allways follow cases...(you do not die before you get ill...let us stick to that rule ! However statistics may become such a mess deaths become reported faster then cases...)

-North America did manage to be still in high Delta numbers-getting Omicron on top of that so cases +36%, deaths +26%....

-Asia cases/deaths -5%...Omicron exploding in some regions...Vietnam cases high since july...what variant is spreading there ? Still a Delta sub-variant ???? (according to outbreak.) 

-South America cases +2%, deaths -9% indicating a new wave...Brazil +14%, Argentina +18%....very likely also a mix of Delta being replaced by Omicron...

-Africa...very limited testing still cases exploding +164%, deaths still -14%....But deaths will go up +100% before christmas...as far as any reporting will/can be done...

-Oceania, cases -4%, deaths +53%...Australia and Papua New Guinea reporting increase of deaths...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics as far as being updated/reported...1,636 Omicron cases did see sequencing in 54 countries...UK, DK, SA top 3....mainly because they do a lot of sequencing...

Looking at a few countries;

China cases +213% still claiming Omicron is NOT spreading there...Since Omicron can stay undetected by testing several days it may be very hard-even for China-to keep Omicron out...

Israel showing once Omicron is "in" it explodes...cases +62%...

South Africa cases "only" going up 331%...deaths still -24%...Mozambique cases +979%, Eswatini +977%, Namibia +880%, Zimbabwe +660%...(there deaths +50% last week 4, this week 6...so very limited numbers....deaths most likely still from Delta... Omicron-deaths may take still 7-10 days ?)

Haiti cases +106% (very poor-also in testing) is beating the US...cases "only" going up 40%, deaths +36% for the US most will be Delta...Canada +13%.

In Europe, France cases +39%, Spain +36%, Norway +28%, Denmark, Portugal, Finland all +20%, UK +12%...Germany, NL, Belgium all claim cases going -5%....(they all had very high numbers-are on top of testing capacity...NL now promoting home-testing...still claiming the 5% drop in cases is NOT related to the change/limits in testing strategy...). 

-I also try/tried to get a view on Omicron sub-variants...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Stealth_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Stealth_variant ; 

Stealth variant

Researchers have established the existence of two variants of Omicron. The 'standard' one is referred to as BA.1, and a second variant of Omicron is known as BA.2. BA.2 has been nicknamed 'Stealth Omicron' because it differs from the 'standard' variety by, inter alia, not having the characteristic deletion by which PCR tests were able to detect it.^[24]

Possible consequences

The WHO is concerned that the large number of mutations may reduce immunity in people who were previously infected and in vaccinated people. It is also possible the omicron variant might be more infective in this regard than prior variants. The effects of the mutations, if any, are unknown as of late November 2021. The WHO warns that health services could be overwhelmed especially in nations with low vaccination rates where mortality and morbidity rates are likely to be much higher, and urges all nations to increase COVID-19 vaccinations.^[25]

DJ With very limited info the picture I get is SA cases going uo 25% per day...more vaccinated DK cases +50% per day...(based on twitters...so no "science" there may be "science" over several months...) . 

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues is discussing mutations on variants...by now Omicron may have allready 4 subtypes...some mutations showing up more in some regions...The mutations surviving long/strong enough can become dominant sub-types....To do so they have to spread even faster....

Several days ago I did see some twitter for Omicron R0 between 10 and 30...Delta had a R0 of between 5 and 8...Omicron had to be able to spread both faster and "stronger" to push away Delta... The picture I am getting of Omicron is that it is a "high-speed-Delta like variant (on steroids)....

Sub-variants of Omicron showing up this fast should (also) be alarming...Omicron is very flexible, overrunnig all regional obstacles in its way...

DJ-I do not see why some "experts"keep coming up with "it is milder" stories...Healthcare is overstretched by far, the "public" is ill-informed and tired of restrictions...so you know what will happen next ! 

Or do I have to put a link to tsunami's ????

End of a grim part 1, 

Part 2 was getting a bit long, so this is part 3 of my "info-dump"...just a selection,

[url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam did try to follow several clusters. We-by now-know the scenario (Peak Prosperity) "case-case-cluster-cluster-boom" ...We are now in between second cluster and boom....

DJ So in some countries with still a high level of Delta CoViD numbers going up may still mean some Delta sub-variant going up...(or a new (re)combination of Delta with Omicron, maybe even some other parties join in...).  BA.2 makes it harder to get any view of the "battle field"...

DJ So we do know Omicron spreads very fast, is evading immunity "a lot"...so the hope is Omicron will be mild... Given the very high level of spread, evading immunity Omicron would be "a cold like coronavirus" to not become a very major problem...And Omicron is NOT a cold-like corona-virus !!!

Viruses don't necessarily evolve to be milder and the experience with COVID through alpha, beta, gamma, and delta is the opposite. Higher viral density in exhaled air is connected to higher transmission https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2

DJ There is still a lot NOT known !!! [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03616-x[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03616-x ; "Omicron is bad but global response is worse"

DJ-My opinion; rich countries do have more (economic) room for NPI/lockdowns, in poor countries todays income is this evenings food.....Travel restrictions to Southern Africa because of Omicron were much to late...Omicron was allready spreading in the rich countries-even worse-is still getting free air transport NOW !! much to often...So "stop air travel to SA region" was-again-more PR, show then of any use...It would be so welcome if global air travel would be limited to 5-10% of pre-pandemic; only essential, with good testing, quarantine...long enough to make a difference...

Vaccines were used to "save the economy" not to get out of the pandemic...another PR-show....Vaccines in combination with restrictions could have made a difference ! But fighting the pandemic never was priority #1....."saving the economy" was-and is-#1....

So we sink deeper into the pandemic swamp with Omicron variants....PR "media-experts-politics"-show pushing for more vaccines...while Omicron is simply jumping over most of vaccine protection....(ADE-sign still unsure...if Omicron realy would be spreading faster in DK-high vaccinations, Israel, high boosters then in SA-when you also know enough on timing/start of spread then we may learn more...SA has higher "post-infection immunity"...) .

As a non-expert, just a big mouth, I fear Omicron may bring us in "Spanish Flu like" scenario's...The bad part of course is people did get immunity from the H1N1-Spanish Flu...Omicron is just one of the CoViD-19/SARS-2 variants...it will-most likely-not stop at Omicron. And I do not even want to start on risks of other diseases getting out of control because of CoViD-19 destroying most health care....

Again I am NOT an expert, just trying to "catch a glimp"...I still believe NPI, from lock downs to serious travel restrictions may help...but then we have to act NOW !!! And all I still see is denial by "politics".....saving the economy...by letting a pandemic get out of control...."can't fix stupid"....

End of part 3....Hope to be very, very wrong ! 

Music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJUhlRoBL8M[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJUhlRoBL8M  Allways look on the bright side of life....

part 2, numbers ;

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics A total of 59 countries now did detect ( a subtype of) Omicron...the 1,711 detections are only a glimpse of the real number...most countries will have Omicron as the dominant variant in a week or so...it will be as good as the only variant -99% of cases- end of this month. 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 664,214 global cases did get reported - trend +8%.

Deaths 7,818 trend +2%...most cases and deaths are NOT being reported ! Testing limited in many places...I could make a list of countries reporting most cases/deaths...link that with trends...but that is the easy part...

What I find more interesting is; "what comes fast goes fast"...Could it be Omicron will be a short strong wave...spreading very fast only to give room for something else..."opening the door" so to say ? 

At present most statistics tell you more on testing/sequencing capacity then on reality....Statistics however may give a good indication of the high speed of Omicron....much faster in spread then any earlier variants...

One mistake most of us make often is to expect "something new" to act in many ways as the old...only faster, better quality...In wars preparation for the next war was based on the last war(s)....With Omicron we expect it to act a lot like the other variants....

Immunity however may have changed the picture....( most of global immunity the result of earlier infections, vaccines-on a global scale - still limited).  A virus needs host to reproduce itself....better defenses in hosts give some mutations a better chance for viral reproduction...

Omicron may be a transitionary variant with in it some mutations allready for a new variant better able to evade immunity...maybe Omicron should not be our biggest concern, but what is coming next....STOP THE SPREAD !!!!

A look at what is coming next at [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues ; [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/364[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/364 ; Around 75% (412/554) of the Omicron variants formed three groups (Group 1, N=159; Group 2, N=114; Group 3, N=109). Group 1 contains all the 37 different mutations; Group 2 includes all the mutations except K417N, N440K, and G446S, whereas Group 3 harbours all the mutations of Group 2 except N764K. Rest of the 92 groups represented only 142 strains (Table 3). 

We have presented the sequence names of all the strains (with their S glycoprotein mutations) belonging to a specific group in Supplementary file 1.

DJ High speed spread = high speed mutations = high speed sub-variants. Delta had over 150 subtypes, Omicron-if given enough time-may break that record. Why is that bad ? It means Omicron is very flexible in reacting to regional circumstances...could be finding its way on different kinds of immunity in different mutations....

Again- media-experts-politics dump a lot of hopium; vaccines will save us...(no lockdowns, but that they will not tell you)...while minimizing contacts may be the only way out ...

End of part 2 

KiwiMum, and the main point is...you can not vaccinate yourself out of a pandemic ! Not with the present vaccines-not with this virus !!!

BoJo going for privatized testing, done by party sponsors getting millions for a job that goes wrong time after time. People getting test results claiming they did test negative while at home testing-on a daily basis-gives positives for days...."CP" corruption-in wich CP stands for Conservative Party....but the embedded media rather talks about last years BoJo christmas party....

Makes me wonder on wich sunny location the next EU meeting will be...Maybe a Greek Island...with defenses in the water to keep the dead bodies of refugees out ? Refugees that BoJo and his club of clowns started... "Russian agression" when it is NATO moving east, against agreements made in 1991...

Some twitter; [url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 ; 

DJ Of course by still going for the failing herd-immunity strategy at schools thousends of children are catching Omicron/CoViD each day...Not only in the UK but in most parts of the globe...So "vaccinate children" ? It is time to close "the machine" , maybe trade unions should go for a national strike against the pandemic ! 

"Work from home" as an "advice"...not a legal right ! Lots of workers would love to be able to work from home !!!

Rachel Clarke

@doctor_oxford

·

12 u

It's really bleak in the NHS right now. Hospitals on black alert,  ICUs filled with Covid, major cancer surgeries being cancelled. Please obey the new Plan B rules. Not because that man told you to. Because *we* need you to - so we can help & save as many patients as possible 

DJ Since "our leaders" the Media-Experts-Politics (MEP) club, failed and keep failing dump them !  HCW-ers trying to limit damage the best they can...MEP keeps undoing that work, from parties during lockdowns called "bussiness meetings" (how many of those "meetings"  have there been ? Was "wine and cheese" mixed with underaged girls ? )

DJ "Our leaders" ignored the pandemic...like they ignore climate change....Since our "leaders" lead us in the wrong direction it would be so welcome if we could replace them with better ones !

Michelle Wong #MaskUp #MakeSchoolsSafe #FreshAir

·

7 dec.

UPDATE: London Area Is this another PCR scandal? Day5: Second PCR swab Day6: PCR result NEGATIVE Day 4,5,6,7 LFD positive Email received yesterday Local PH are investigating Shd Local school guide now change? Isolate on LFD +ve Continue 2 isolate on PCR -ve 

@UKHSA

DJ The idea was to have a picture of FOUR positive lateral flow-DIY at home tests....but some privatized testing company from a BoJo-sponsor comes up with negative tests...again....

So;

-Our leaders did not stop free air travel for virusses THREE TIMES !!!! Wuhan january/march 2020, Delta free travel around the globe from India april 2021 and then "Omicron spread was missed" maybe as early as october this year...Closing air travel (at least half of it) AFTER oOmicron started spreading in other places was PR...but much to late to stop it !!!

-Our leaders did push vaccines to stop NPI/lockdowns saving the economy....Vaccinated were free to travel around the globe again....even when it was wellknown the vaccines did a limited job against spread of the virus...(but who cares ?)

-Now they want you to take a booster, and another one, and another one...from private companies making trillions out of it...But "Russian/China vaccines" do "come at a price"......%$#*& !!!

-Just like there are limits to what vaccines can do there are limits to what boosters can do !!! You can not vaccinate yourself out of a pandemic-you at least need much more interventions to limit contacts !

-But doing half the job for allmost two years now has ended us up with a variant that is mutating that fast vaccines/boosters "may have limited use"....Somehow Media-Experts-Politics miss that point....

This pandemic did become this bad because our politics "do not work"....Voters need to be better informed ! For the US "public health" is NOT communism ! It is just common sense ! If only 1% of the US military budget went to improve education, basic healthcare that would be progress....

So what else to expect from these "leaders from the free world", global war ?  ( In solidarity with Chinese Muslims they did use in IS ? In solidarity with Ukraine neo-nazi's ?) Even more totalitarism ? And for what ? To see a small group of people getting even more rich ? The rest of us facing hyperinflation...starting in most places with housing, now in energy, soon in food...

Bad leaders bring bad results....

(Sorry I had to get angry !!!! #$@% &(* !!!) 

End of an angry part 3 !

KiwiMum...all over in this pandemic bad choices are being made by those in power...There is a "Social contract arguments typically posit that individuals have consented, either explicitly or tacitly, to surrender some of their freedoms and submit to the authority (of the ruler, or to the decision of a majority) in exchange for protection of their remaining rights or maintenance of the social order.^[2][3] " [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_contract[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_contract ...Everything in life is about balancing...

When that balance is getting broken you will see widespread social unrest (and no the demonstrations so far are childsplay with what to expect with "Code Black"...). Here in NL-and in some other countries-some patients can no longer get ICU-care when they need it...(and beds are not the problem, ICU staff is). This is seen as a "wide definition of code black"...so politics/MEP still try to downplay it...

A more narrow definition is when hospitals run out of capacity...So far at a bad moment ambulances have to park outside...or drive around/long distance to find a bed...If the situation gets any worse there may not be an ambulance available anymore...since there is no hospital capacity...Allready some patients are send home from the hospitals without good home care...to make room in the hospitals...

There must be plans for how to deal with a worsening crisis. From triage/selection of patients to security, fieldhospitals...

-A look at numbers; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

First the statistics may indicate Omicron did not get widespread in Europe in november - but the sign is unclear...

Reported global cases for december 9; 666,364 trend +3%. Deaths 7,895 trend -0.6%...

US cases 127,411 +20%, Germany 68,832 cases trend -18% why are cases going down this fast in Germany ? [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics Germany "only" 15 Omicron cases so far....I do not doubt their sequencing...so does Omicron not like Germans ????

NL cases -4% most likely due to "home testing advice"...Belgium cases -12% maybe Omicron still needs to "start up" in that part of Europe ?

Norway +38%, Denmark +28%, UK, Finland +8% may allready show Omicron is spreading...But France +29%, Spain, Portugal +23%, Italy +13% may still be in Delta cases going up....limited Omicron cases...

Israel +23%, USA +20%, Canada +15%  show up also in the Omicron statistics...

In Southern Africa numbers still "exploding" SA itself reporting an increase of 195%. Deaths +1% last week 144, this week 145...In Zimbabwe deaths going up 3 last week, 16 this week (+433%) but at least part of that number will be Delta...

In Africa 37 of the 56 countries are reporting an increase of cases...Omicron so far detected in 61 countries...2,303 detections...

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues has limited news on Omicron...more on Delta sub-variants...redirecting to [url]https://twitter.com/sergeilkp/status/1468702272272183300?s=20[/url] or https://twitter.com/sergeilkp/status/1468702272272183300?s=20 discussing some mutations...

More number related twitter from [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; In 24h there was a lot of spin to present #Omicron data as "not too bad", but results are clear & similar. The difference is in presentation & the starting sera for comparison: Pfizer & @sigallab used 1-month peak-titer while @CiesekSandra started at 6-month & showed the waning.

-

DJ If you can not control the crisis, control the news Media-Experts-Politics swindle; "boosters"will protect us...only boosting in many places did not start that long ago....so a lot of people are not protected even following MEP-lies....

A booster may offer "best protection" one month after the booster vaccination...just enough to deal with Omicron...but waning may see booster vaccine protection against Omicron will be "very limited"...so STOP THE SPREAD !!!!

Also from twitter Zimbabwe may be telling more on Omicron the SA... Admissions in #Zimbabwe continue to rise rapidly, and are already at 30% of their peak in the previous 3rd wave, when critical care capacity was sorely tested. 'Severe' cases are also on the rise.

DJ One problem is high level of infections...even if most infections would be mild any further increase of pressure on an overstretched healthcare system is unwelcome. There are some signs that Omicron is "not that mild" then increased spread would be even worse...

Countries should do more to keep numbers down...but again-saving the economy, now mixed with saving christmas...they do not ! 

End of part 1 (maybe I find time later today for a part 2...In NL 1 in 6 still supporting government CoViD-"strategy" most would like to see more restrictions...On NL schools 45% would welcome an extra week schoolclusere before Christmas, 55% is against it...since pupils do miss allready lots of lessons...)