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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

scenario's

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2022 at 9:17pm

DJ, 

Let me today start with [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/uk-sage-new-omicron-wave-predicted-for-april-2022/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/uk-sage-new-omicron-wave-predicted-for-april-2022/

“These projections are extended to the end of July 2022. These show an ‘exit’ wave due to increased mixing and waning vaccine immunity. Precise timing and magnitude of this exit wave is highly dependent on both population behaviour and the scale of the current wave and cannot be predicted with any certainty. “

UK SAGE Document: University of Warwick: Omicron modelling, 6 January 2022 

and referring to [url]https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma[/url] or https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma , [url]https://twitter.com/flodebarre[/url] or https://twitter.com/flodebarre and [url]https://twitter.com/LenaSchimmel[/url] or https://twitter.com/LenaSchimmel trying to follow the BA.2-Omicron variant. 

On a global level BA.1 now is dominant-however with often some Delta-subvariants still around. South(ern) Africa may have a lot of BA.3 Omicron. There are indications BA.2 is that different from BA.1 it is taking over from BA.1. [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=DNK&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=DNK&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false newest info from january 8-so at best giving a week old view...

BA.2 is dominant in Denmark [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/ resulting in a very high level of new cases-latest weekly trend still +5% for cases-deaths +64%, 125 deaths last week on a population of 5,8 million. 

India, Philippines are two other countries with high level of BA.2 Omicron...resulting in cases "exploding", deaths going up high speed as well. 

Omicron is not " just one variant" but a family of subvariants. Delta did see over 200 subvariants-some still increasing. With the present very high numbers-over 3 million cases reported for a third day-and sequencing capacity now unable to deal with these numbers even more we are "blind".








Question for animal influenza twitter - did pandemic H2N2 never stably infect pigs? Do we have any idea why when pandemic H1N1 and H3N2 did pretty well in swine?

DJ Another point is co-infections of Omicron-most BA.1 for now with flu most H3N2 resulting in more severe disease in a.o. Latin America and Israel. 

Israel-high level of boosters-cases +155%, deaths +88%. [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=ISR[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=ISR latest info january 10-BA.1 at 38%, other 19%, latest info however [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/number-of-seriously-ill-covid-patients-climbs-to-over-300-with-40000-new-cases/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/number-of-seriously-ill-covid-patients-climbs-to-over-300-with-40000-new-cases/ BA.2 is on the rise in Israel. 

One of many things going wrong in this pandemic is communications. "Delta" may be hundreds of subvariants, Omicron is NOT just the BA.1 "somewhat "milder" type". BA.2 is bad ! 

My non-expert impression is that even good experts, the best epidemiologists, virologists could be missing this...since this kind of pandemic is unseen since the Spanish Flu of 1918-19 I believe a "helicopterview" may be welcome to balance a certain "tunnel vision" experts can offer. 

Medical historians with knowledge of how earlier pandemics unfolded could provide another view and result in better scenario's and strategies. 

We need to restart how we deal with this pandemic. So far the strategies, priorities, only did get us deeper into a pandemic swamp. We may learn in a very hard way that "living with the virus" -like living as if it was a sort of flu-is unrealistic. 

We did see lots of CoVid outbreaks in animals-ending with killing all of the animals. A COrona VIral Disease (CoViD) is NOT a flu ! They may ba as different as a lion from a bear....

Starting another war is not a solution....

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2022 at 10:17pm

part 2, 

Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ...

The reported numbers for cases at best give some indications. Real numbers may be 10x the reported ones...lots of people may catch BA.1 of Omicron and not notice it....at least for now. Problem is the virus may hide in your body. You can get an (upper respitory to start with-virus get in via that route) infection first...however if the virus is able to get inside a host body it may infect later on at other places, organs....it is at least a two-step proces. A third step may be in how the body, immunity (over)reacts...

Global (under)reported cases january 14 was 3,192, 268 cases +35%, "only"7,792 deaths +13%...we did see higher number of deaths earlier on. But Omicron "just started" and given the high speed spread, hospitals at limits, deaths will go up. I do think we could be seeing 30,000 to 50,000 deaths per day soon. Unclear what BA.2 will do how some Delta sub-variants will decelop, other variants that may show up. 

The US reporting 824,620 new cases +20%, France 329, 371 +34%, India 268,833 new cases, trend +193%. The top 10 for reported cases then has Italy, Spain, Argentina, Australia and Brazil all reporting over 100,000 new cases. UK just under that 100,000 at #9., trend for cases -30%. Germany at #10, 80,080 new cases-trend +51%. 

The Philippines at #14 with 37,207 cases-trend +229% but most likely not enough test capacity-like India, Brazil...

France has much more restrictions then the UK. But the UK may be "further" in the "proces" cases going down deaths +67% with France deaths "only" +3%. 

Argentina is also remarkable; very high numbers-cases still +66%, deaths +83% so "not at a peak yet". [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=ARG[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=ARG BA.1 Omicron 35% last 60 days-dominant last days-still AY.25 of Delta 28% last 60 days and still around. 

Canada cases -20%, deaths +86% may be over "a peak". 

South Africa cases -31%, deaths +43% may be even a bit further "post-peak"....

Regions;  

Of the almost 3,2 million reported cases, 7,792 deaths

Europe did see 1,223,284 cases - 3,108 deaths-both now under the 50% of global cases/deaths, trend +17% for cases, +4% for deaths

North America 933,440 cases, 2,655 deaths, trend +22% for cases, +24% for deaths

South America 334,320 cases, 550 deaths, trend +100% for cases, +36% for deaths

So "The America's"    1,267,760 cases 3,205 deaths - not that different from Europe. However Europe may be closer to "a peak" ...looking at trends.

Asia reporting 524,455 cases +113%, 1,101 deaths +10% still in the early stages of Omicron spread

Africa 41,769 cases -10%, 321 deaths reported +21%...post peak. Testing limited-but has been limited all the time...

Oceania (most Australia) 135,000 new cases (134,508 from Australia) trend +110%, 57 deaths (56 of them Australian) +224% weekly trend. 

Of the 40 million+ people in Oceania allmost 26 million live in Australia...still New Zealand cases "only" +4% -only 1 death in the last 7 days is showing a different "pattern" then Australia does. 

How a country is doing has to do with lots of factors;

-Sub-variant spreading, in general Omicron is high speed spread, but BA.2 may spread even faster then BA.1

-Restrictions, UK has "freedom" and may be lucky BA.2 only is limited, most UK citizens more wise then "partyleader BoJo&Co",

-UK also further in spread-so is a variant just showing up=high number of cases...in UK BA.1 by now going down

-Summer/winter, age is also a factor. Can a country protect the more vulnerables ? 

-Communications matter, countries with more clear communications most of the time (like Germany) may do better

However long-CoVid is not easy te give a good definition for, it may not even be "post-viral" in the sense that the virus still may be doing a lot of damage but not in the respitory system...blood tests would give a better indication-not only for the virus but also to see if there are infections...maybe even immunity deregulated...(resulting in an increase of auto-immune diseases, diabetes-2, ).

People that did survive ICU/intubation may have PTSD, depression, long term organ damage...

CoViD is complex ! That is why I take time on this forum to try "to get some limited view" on "what is happening"....

-During this pandemic there was a pattern-a timeline. A variant showed up-did take some time to spread worldwide (not stopped by limiting air-travel governments only showing action AFTER the variant did spread-3 times so far (Wuhan/wild type early 2020, Delta april-2021, Omicron november 2021). 

There were clear "peaks" and "lows" a clear global dominant variant. Vaccinations were supposed to "get us out" of the pandemic...a "bizarre" vaccination-strategy did undo what vaccines could have given us...Vaccinated people did get "freedom" while still catching/spreading the virus...vaccines do still protect against severe disease-but NEVER stopped catching the virus that much that only vaccinations would be enough to get out of this pandemic. 

Delta allready had increased immunity escape, Omicron sub-variants are even better in evading immunity.  (However ADE-increase of spread via the immune system-did NOT show up. Also "good news" is-so far Omicron NOT "exploding" in non-human hosts as far as detected/tested/reported.)

Via worldometer numbers one can see where the "peak of the wave" is at a certain moment. A few weeks ago Europe had 60% of global cases, now it may have dropped to around 40%-with more cases in the America's, Asia, Oceania. 

Another main point-for now-we still have a dominant variant (now Omicron-with subvariants) and a clear pattern of peaks and lows. 

Omicron was "high speed" in increasing cases, may "drop" high speed as well. Timing with christmas and new year meant we did miss a lot of developments, testing, reporting, sequencing-while those days did see massive spread of most Omicron. 

Some "love to suggest" "mild Omicron" will "end the pandemic". Even some "experts" promote catching "mild Omicron" to increase (herd) immunity....

You have to ignore both the history of this-and other-pandemic(s) and ignore long-CoViD to "get this kind of insanity out of your mouth"....

Everyone with some brains would love this pandemic to be over. Lots of small bussinesses facing bankruptcy...but "wishing it was over" is not a solution...

One of the patterns that may change is that it will get more unclear what the dominant variant is, if we are in a peak or a low...I think Omicron sub-variants do change "the picture" even more then Delta sub-variants did and still do. 

Delta is NOT gone, may still stick around...could regain dominance in some area's with some sub-variants. Other global regions could see BA.2 Omicron taking over from BA.1...BA.2 being allmost another variant-may develop further away from BA.1. 

Other variants are still very limited, most in poor countries but Europe, North America may see new variants showing up in vaccinated people. 

It could be a matter of time & testing before we see Omicron did spread in non-human hosts. Co-infection with other diseases-like H3N2 in some regions-further may complicate this-far from over-pandemic. 

What is needed-and still missing-is a LONG TERM strategy...a re-balance between economy and this pandemic. It is time for better plans !

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2022 at 11:56pm

part 3, 








U.S. COVID update: New cases at record-high, but data suggests a peak is near - New cases: 926,693 - Average: 815,826 (+3,618) - States reporting: 48/50 - In hospital: 155,527 (+1,396) - In ICU: 25,878 (+257) - New deaths: 2,786 More data: https://newsnodes.com/us

DJ, from NL; [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/14/dutch-cabinet-loosens-lockdown-restrictions-amid-record-high-covid-infections[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/14/dutch-cabinet-loosens-lockdown-restrictions-amid-record-high-covid-infectionsWith coronavirus infections at record high levels, but Covid-19 hospitalizations approaching an 11-week low, the Dutch government decided to relax several coronavirus restrictions starting on Saturday. Lockdown restrictions affecting higher education, retail, fitness centers, organized sports, and close contact professionals were loosened, but hospitality and cultural sector businesses still have to stay closed. While some quarantine rules were also relaxed, stricter face mask recommendations were issued.

So high number of cases-still a different picture...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/14/netherlands-tops-35000-coronavirus-infections-first-time-hospital-total-falls[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/14/netherlands-tops-35000-coronavirus-infections-first-time-hospital-total-falls ...We may face 80,000+ new cases-being tested/reported-testing capacity going up from 100,000 tests per day to 200,000 per day end of this month. 

Still the real number of cases will be much higher-lots of people may not get any symptoms after infection (both short term AND long term if they are lucky). So numbers only give indications. BA.2 is also increasing in NL...may "change the picture" within a few weeks in a very bad way. 

One of the reasons why the US is seeing massive record hospital cases and NL is not may be in NL level of vaccinations...(NL boosters still not at the level wanted-but still increasing). Another factor may be mask use, people more able for limiting contacts/risks in NL. (Internet in NL is among the most widespread in the world-shopping via the internet may become larger then shopping in real shops in NL, maybe the US is not going that far...). 

Of course we still have a sort of "lockdown" in NL...US-in general-may see less restrictions from the state/government. Maybe NL is even a bit further in Omicron-BA.1 spread then the US is....so we should be seeing higher hospital cases/deaths...

Maybe alook at some numbers comparing the US and NL...

So far the US did see 198,227 cases per million of population, 2,611 deaths per million. NL did see 203,623 cases per million, still deaths at 1,230...but a lot of deaths in care centers not included. But even if you double the number-2,460 deaths per million-still is lower then the US number...more cases per million maybe related to more testing ? 

USA had 2,564,277 tests per million, NL "only" 1,227,668 tests per million. At home testing however has been promoted-is easy to get and cheap in NL...As far as I understand it may be harder and more expensive in the US. A test in NL is around 3 US$...every supermarket, drugstore-both essential and still open-has one...

US trends for both cases and deaths at +20%, NL cases +45%, deaths -45%...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics US Omicron cases 95,217 GISAID-number, NL 1,657 GISAID -even if you go 20x 1,657 you end up at 33,000 Omicron cases...did Omicron so far-still spread less in NL ? 

[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=USA[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=USA ; US last 60 days BA.1 at 29%, AY.103 (Delta) at 18%, "other" also at 18%...

NL [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD ; last 60 days AY.43 Delta at 43%, "other"at 18%, BA.1-Omicron just 15%-Omicron spread started around the same time for both the US and NL (around mid december) so somehow BA.1 did see a chance to spread twice as fast in the US as in NL. For that matter NL-NPI, including a limited lockdown may show effect. 

On the other side of this story is NL could face much more increase of Omicron...we may have "started BA.1 spread" at the same time-school reopening may still have to show up in these numbers...(a week+ old).  

In the last week the US had 38 deaths per million, NL "just" 4...

The picture I have to explain differences between the US and NL (doing very bad in this pandemic for West-European standards, a.o. in excess deaths) ;

-Vaccination level in NL is very high, 87,4% of 12 y/o+ did at least get one vaccination-84,5% is fully vaccinated. Allmost 50% of 18 y/o in NL did get a booster. 

-Restrictions/vaccines still may be less "political" in NL then in the US

-Interner may be another factor, tele-working, shopping, study needs good internet coverage...

-health insurance will be a factor. We do have public healthcare in NL-still-US more private...but is that such a main factor ? 

-NL has more older age people then the US, chronic diseases maybe more widespread in the US (obesity/diabetes, narcotics...)

So another look at variants...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics US did see 1,099,811 detections of Delta, NL 33,128 (both december 19 numbers) ...even if you would go for 20x NL number to get near the US you end up at 660,000 Delta cases-so did Delta spread less in NL as well ? (Sequencing for both US and NL may be even be "better" in NL-so NL would have to find MORE of the variants...) 

The US has much more air/long distance travel then NL...last summer lots of people in NL had their vacation in or near NL...also in NL most family/friends may live not that far away...so maybe "spread of contacts" also a factor-resulting in more variant-spread-so more cases/deaths for the US ? 

"Politics" is also a major US "problem" with republicans tending to deny there is a pandemic...being a major factor in society. In NL only one marginal political "group" is claiming this pandemic is a hoax. 

If anything NL may have a larger group of people living in urban area's...maybe 2/3 of NL population could be seen as "urban", US may be around 50% of its population ? 

DJ-What I try to say is how a pandemic unfolds is a very complex story. Politics do play a role but is NOT even the main factor since some basics are long term...spread of contacts, internet-use, age and chronic illness. 

On top of that some countries are in a much better position to keep diseases/variants out...also in part political (China making public health and fight against poverty as a basis for its political system) but also location (New Zealand is different from NL...).

Understanding factors at play is seeing tools to influence developments-recognizing "weak spots"...








Doctors: “our hospitals are full & we are burning out” Public health folks: “we need more vaccinations, better masks, rapid tests” WSJ dude: “letting Omicron rip is a great way to end the pandemic”

National history, culture are background factors. Western Europe does have 200 years of industrial revolution...the US-for the most part-has been much less industrial but-even now-agriculture production and export, the global largest oil-producer via fracking. 

Europe has smaller countries in wich social affairs-often with help from both churches and trade unions/left wing parties did translate into better social laws for the working. In the US any idea of government setting rules for how its population is dealing with healthcare is much less accepted. Churches and trade unions did not see their activities translated into law but in organizing charity on a more local level. 

End of part 3

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2022 at 9:51pm

DJ, 

Let me start with things I also do not understand myself [url]https://covariants.org/variants/21L.Omicron[/url] or https://covariants.org/variants/21L.Omicron on BA.2 Omicron...








too early to say anything on severity (though should become clear pretty soon vs BA.1). pretty early on transmissibility also but appears to be growing relative to BA.1 in several countries which may be indicative of slightly higher transmissibility...again should know more soon

How bad is it ? Did bring high number of cases in Denmark...but they are reopening...?  With DK cases +23%, deaths +14% in worldometers...

India cases +150%, deaths +14% as well, Philippines cases +159%, deaths +23%...but also Israël cases +141%, deaths +113%...

  Another point is flu...H5N1-most-exploding around the globe...but also some other forms...with some of them H5N6 also limited spread in humans. H3N2-flu coïnfections in a.o. Brazil, Israël...How likely is it we will see a "bad flu season", how many cases of co-infection of flu (most H3N2) with Omicron (will that be BA.1 or do H3N2 and BA.2 "cooperate better" ?)

It would be so welcome if we-by now-had a sort of global program on sharing-testing samples. To react there where cases go up-find out what is causing the increase. Maybe even be able to react with increase of most fitting vaccinations and NPI-restrictions...

To detect variants in an early stage and in the region where they start spreading. To contain that variant in that region and try to limit it the best we can...A global approach-not national ones-with enough means to get on top of it-like we had with Ebola-outbreaks...

Instead of that we are very close to World War Three because after NApoleon, NAzi's now NAto "needs to move east" ...Trying to push over the sitting dictator in Kazahkstan and replace it with most likely a sort of IS-like terror regime meant to destroy Russia-Iran-China cooperation..

US now talking with EU on selling more US fracking-oil to replace Russian oil and gas....'the joy of good friendship"....

-A look at numbers on where we are and where we are going [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ;

Global cases 2,408,606 trend +25%, deaths 5,710 trend +10%...

Number of tested&reported cases-increase is going down...at a certain moment the numbers are that high we reach testing capacity...also what is the point of testing when "media" keep repeating "it is only mild"....For now numbers of deaths is still "low" when you look at numbers of deaths per day during all of this pandemic. 

So far it did take 2 to 4 weeks most from people testing positive to people dying from CoViD. In some countries hospitals are running out of capacity...here in NL hospital numbers for CoViD are at a "low" expected to start increasing but-for now-leaving room for more non-CoViD care much needed. 

What I try to do here in scenario's is use "public tools" to see how this pandemic is developing...

South Africa cases -34%, deaths +35% may indicate Omicron (elsewhere did see SA had a lot of BA.3 subvariant of Omicron)  only "makes a short visit"...On twitter SA Omicron deaths "would be 30% of Delta-wave-deaths"...DJ However "dying from Omicron in South(ern) Africa is still ongoing...it is much to early to claim " Omicron is less deathly then Delta"...Not only is South Africa in summer, has a young population but also they just came out of a Delta wave that may have increased a certain level of widespread "herd immunity"...

"Jumping to wanted conclusions" is a form of hopium-not science...Experts are also human-also tired of this pandemic. 

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues has news on mutations in subvariants...[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/403[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/403 AY.33-Delta sublineage in limited European countries growing 13%...

DJ So far the new dominant variant did replace 99%+ the old variant...it did take time to do so around the globe. But that pattern may have changed...

 Of course another "tool" is following the news [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/while-the-u-s-cdc-is-cutting-isolating-periods,-new-uk-study-reports-that-one-in-10-people-with-covid-19-could-still-be-infectious-beyond-10-days-and[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/while-the-u-s-cdc-is-cutting-isolating-periods,-new-uk-study-reports-that-one-in-10-people-with-covid-19-could-still-be-infectious-beyond-10-days-and limiting economic disruption lots of countries now limit/drop time for isolation after contact with a person with a positive test and/or symptoms...or even when you had a booster and test positive yourself...Even when Omicron is harder to find via the mosed used tests-including PCR...In China a person tested positive after three weeks-being in isolation most of the time, testing negative lots of times....

Since the virus does spread in the body-attaches itself to ACE-2 receptors allover the body-airways only the "way in"- (It is NOT a respitory virus ! It only does a lot of damage there FIRST !!!! Because you breath it in via aerosols the virus gets in .....media coming up with more insane nonsens "lung-virus"...)

So testing upper respitory system-even nose and mouth-is no guarantee you detect it. Virus also "comes out" to be detected in sewage. It would be welcome if people could have a test for their stool...It may become a better way for testing for CoViD...

-We "have to live with it"....even some good experts go for that story...With others-more history minded-ask if that would mean accepting life expectancy to drop to 40-50 years...bringing us back to "good old times"...19-18th century...but only for the poor in the high risk jobs..."We" here means "low risk workers" telling "high risk workers" THEY have to live with it...on top of climate collapse risks, higher risks from bad air quality etc...

"Live with it" also means "we will not stop it, fight it..."-see it like another type of flu. "We live with that as well"...again WRONG !!!! CoViD is NOT like a flu, it is much more agressive, killing a lot more people, developing high speed...vaccines-so far-do not do a good enough job in this pandemic. 

While "flu" has become somewhat constant...in a bad year global flu-deaths 600,000+, in a good year maybe even under 300,000 deaths (must be statistics some where...giving more educated estimates) the point is "Flu is endemic", via vaccines reasonable under control, predictable-we more or less know the types-wich ones have higher risks (H1N1 did bring the Spanish Flu)...

CoViD is NOT predictable, we have hardly any idea of what to expect in the last two years it did kill millions of people..."live with it" is kicking the can down the road, hoping time will do the job governments had to do...

Today january 16-just out of the first half of the first month of 2022...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table global cases in the last 7 days; 19,938,226...the week before 15,918,111 so first half of this month so far did see 36 million+ cases, 48,692 and 44,146=92,838 deaths last two weeks..."we have to live with that" ? 

Live with up to 200,000 deaths per month ? Over 75 million cases per month ? We have to see that as "a new normal" , accept that ? 

If we would be willing to accept these numbers and risks for long term serious health damage as "new normal" all hope is gone...

Let us NOT give up hope ! We deserve better !

End of part 1 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Part 2 -news dump;

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/infection/some-people-still-infectious-with-covid-after-68-days/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/infection/some-people-still-infectious-with-covid-after-68-days/

The study, published in the international Journal of Infectious Diseases found that 13 per cent of people still exhibited clinically-relevant levels of virus after 10 days, meaning they could potentially still be infectious. Some people retained these levels for up to 68 days. The authors believe this new test should be applied in settings where people are vulnerable, to stop the spread of COVID-19.

Professor Lorna Harries, of the University of Exeter Medical School, oversaw the study. She said: “While this is a relatively small study, our results suggest that potentially active virus may sometimes persist beyond a 10 day period, and could pose a potential risk of onward transmission. Furthermore, there was nothing clinically remarkable about these people, which means we wouldn’t be able to predict who they are”.

Exeter.ac.uk report

DJ I think this study may mean viral spread via aerosols...viral spread via stool may last even longer...could even be widespread in people with long CoViD and the virus still active in some parts of the body...but hard to find-even with blood tests (because it may have "locked itself up" only getting active again from time to time-then hiding again...) 

There are several reports of people catching Omicron twice...several complications...1-Omicron now split up in several subvariants; BA.1 now gaining global dominance allmost-but BA.2 has lots of different mutations..giving more risks for reïnfection..

2-Also earlier the question has to be if the virus was out of the host or did hide in the patiënt and got "re-detected". So not reïnfection but redetection...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/denmark/denmark-omicron-sub-variant-ba2-increases-to-28-of-samples/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/denmark/denmark-omicron-sub-variant-ba2-increases-to-28-of-samples/

In December 2021, the BA2 sub-variant of Omicron accounted for just two percent of the samples analysed. That number has now risen to 28 percent in the first week of 2022. At the same time, the proportion of cases of BA1 has dropped from 72 to 68 percent. The last four percent is made up of the Delta variant.

The two sub-variants differ by having “significant differences” in the spike protein, but it doesn’t seem to make them more contagious or resistant to vaccines.

Anders Fomsgaard of Denmark’s SSI said “We do not yet see any significant differences in those infected with BA2 in terms of age, vaccine status, breakthrough infections, disease or geographical spread. So apparently there is still nothing that says that one should behave differently than the other. So we lack an explanation.”

Berlingske.de (in Danish)

DJ We are a bit further ; 








Here we go! A dominant BA.2 in Denmark on the 9th of January 2022. 2 days later than I predicted and maybe some extra when data will be complete. But the 2k samples available on the 7th, make it quite clear were it was going already, if you ask me.


The BA.2 share keeps growing in Germany as well. Seems around 3% on the 8th of January. Nice graph from  and  Clapping hands sign

So by now most Danish cases are BA.2 and statistics indicate Danish numbers cases +23%, deaths +14% may give a hint...[url]https://twitter.com/flodebarre[/url] or https://twitter.com/flodebarre following BA.2 increases a.o. in France, [url]https://twitter.com/peacockflu[/url] or https://twitter.com/peacockflu a.o. in the UK...lots of discussion on BA.2 of Omicron. DJ My impression is BA.2 is giving even higher growthrates still in Philipines +159%, India +150% then BA.1 did...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/co-infection/italy-2-cases-of-deltacron-reported-but-theyre-not-recombinant-variants/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/co-infection/italy-2-cases-of-deltacron-reported-but-theyre-not-recombinant-variants/

Doctor Antonia Ricci, director of the Zooprophylactic Institute of the Venezie, said “we do not have a sequence generated by the acquisition of mutations between two different variants. What we have found is not a new strain of Sars Cov-2 that combines Delta and Omicron – the only ones currently in circulation – creating a virological bomb in the common imagination, but rather they are samples that have both variants. In short, Delta and Omicron can co-infect the same person”

Larena.it report (in Italian)

DJ Italian statistics cases +21%, deaths +47%...getting BOTH Delta and Omicron most likely will bring more severe disease..From a pandemic point of view it also means Delta can keep spreading-is not pushed away by Omicron...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/mans-penis-shrinks-by-1-5-inches-after-covid-19-infection/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/mans-penis-shrinks-by-1-5-inches-after-covid-19-infection/

Our results are highly suggestive of the role of the infection in the development of the sexual dysfunction and of the possible clinical relevance of COVID-19 as an additional risk factor for the development of ED.  Additionally, considering the bidirectional interaction between sexual activity and psychological well-being, the removal of the possible influence of anxiety and depression confirmed that the increased prevalence of ED here found is not only a consequence of the psychological burden of lockdown, but also prominently due to other, bona fide organic factors, among which endothelial dysfunction is the most likely culprit.

Preliminary evidence of the association between erectile dysfunction and COVID-19

Maybe some men paying more attention now ? Long-CoViD and a sex-live may be hard to combine...get vaccinated !

Men have ACE-2 receptors in their sex-organs-so the virus can attach even more/better in males. "Let the virus do its thing" is genocide...

Not only "living with the virus" may mean extra millions od CoViD deaths per year-most in the poor, it also will bring down further the birthrate. 

Let the virus provide "non existing herd-immunity" is a form of depopulation...it is criminal and insane...because we do not have any real means of control. It is like "let the wildfire do its thing" near a major city...Do NOT-NEVER EVER buy bulls..t !!!

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/long-covid-could-also-be-due-to-sars-cov-2-dysregulating-the-human-host-immune-system-for-months-including-downregulating-naive-t-and-b-cells[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/long-covid-could-also-be-due-to-sars-cov-2-dysregulating-the-human-host-immune-system-for-months-including-downregulating-naive-t-and-b-cells  and

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/new-study-uncovers-similarities-and-differences-between-similarities-between-sars-cov-2-and-hiv-1-infections-in-terms-of-cellular-and-immune-responses[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/new-study-uncovers-similarities-and-differences-between-similarities-between-sars-cov-2-and-hiv-1-infections-in-terms-of-cellular-and-immune-responses 

DJ, What I make of  "a CoViD-infection proces" is; 

1 Initial infection-may give health issues, often respitory (so Omicron often throat inflamation, Delta did do damage to the lower respitory system more-lungs)...because it gets in via the airways..

2 But it may/will spread further all over the body...causing clothing-trombosis, doing damage from hearth to brain...So if the first stage was undetected (mild/no symptoms) the second stage may not even be related-in the medical story- to a CoViD-infection while it is a later stage of it...That is why excess deaths going up may give most likely better indications. In this stage PCR-nasal swab-testing may not find a virus..blood sample testing (or stool testing, anal swabs) will show-most likely for the CoViD-infection.

3 Since the virus may remain in the body-sometimes even "hide" (and testing may not detect it) immunity will (over)react on it...Post-Viral Syndrome, ME-CFS, may have lots of similarities...It can start auto immune disease (Diabetes-2 a.o.), it may result in more inflamations of organs (Multi Inflamatory Syndrome both in Children (MIS-C) and Adults (MIS-A) related...Sometimes it may be hard to find out what is happening. 

For "economic reasons"....some people that are dealing with a lot of damage may face "doctors" claiming it is "all in their head" and up at a psychiatrists giving anti-depressives...be forced to restart a job they no longer can do. 

Just like with Lyme-disease, possibly chronic Q-fever, testing, examining "the old way" may not be able to detect much. I think sometimes GOOD exercise testing-see what a body can do-may be helpfull in some cases. Some people may be able to do a lot of things on day 1, but collapse after day 3...so you need to follow that for a longer time..

If there is serious lung-damage you can test lung-capacity...allways take Long-CoViD (etc) serious...but also try to find ways that can bring improvements. Not being able to "think clear" can be the outcome of CoViD infection but also be related to depression when someone lost his/her job, his/her house due to illness...

Looking at relations between HIV and CoViD (both RNA-virus) should also include how CoViD is unfolding in HIV+ population. From a pandemic point of view does CoViD-spread in large HIV+ population (like in parts of Africa) increase risks of multi resistent TB ? Other illnesses..? 

Does it make even more urgent to do more-global-testing for HIV ? Because HIV+ and COvID increases risks for more other diseases ? 

When you know more you can communicate more...do more on prevention...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/935530-china-a-local-covid-19-omicron-variant-confirmed-in-beijing-january-16-2022[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/935530-china-a-local-covid-19-omicron-variant-confirmed-in-beijing-january-16-2022 ; On January 15, at the 266th press conference on the prevention and control of the new coronavirus pneumonia in Beijing, Pang Xinghuo, deputy director of the Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention and member of the national new coronavirus pneumonia expert group, introduced, January 15 At 19:29, 1 new local case of new coronary pneumonia was confirmed in Beijing. The case has no history of travel and residence in other provinces and cities in the past 14 days, and no history of contact with related cases. The nucleic acid test of the two co-residents was negative.

DJ A-symptomatic spread, tests doing no longer a good enough job, make it harder for China to limit CoViD without going for more restrictions. 

Still we should be willing to learn a few things from China. They are able to go for massive testing, millions per day, massive vaccinations-also millions per day. China has a more clear and national strategy. May have better communications, more clear rules then most western countries have.  

Of course it is not perfect ! Isolating people without enough food-to stop virusspread is a.o. things unwelcome...But "smart camera's" detecting people with a fever at busy points may be something we have to consider for our own countries. Fever is not the main CoViD-symptom (maybe more related to flu) but you may not want people with fever at a very busy point...however if they are on their way to a hospital maybe healthcare should have "clean-taxi's" for that goal...(paid for by government/health insurance, decontaminated after each ride, driver with extra protection/isolation + booster). 

Here in NL usage of public transport is still below pre-pandemic levels-ending up with even more cars on the street. Safe-taxi's may mean more safe driving...I may not like a driver with long CoViD driving a car; increasing traffic risks (pushing up economic costs...). 

Let me be clear-in my opinion pandemics and mega-sport-events do NOT mix. From last years Japan Olympics, the upcoming "Australian (not so) Open" tennis, to China wninter olympics or soccer world championship in Qatar...just another indication this pandemic is not a global top priority...

Other news; [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/undersea-volcano-eruption-triggers-massive-shockwave-tsunami-strikes-south-pacific-island[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/undersea-volcano-eruption-triggers-massive-shockwave-tsunami-strikes-south-pacific-island  the Tonga-volcanic explosion did send a shock-wave around the globe (here in NL 3hpa "jump") but also a tsunami resulting in flooding a.o. in California...

Number of people killed very limited-if any-but still a major global event. 

NATO, after NApoleon, NAzi's "moving east" [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-deploys-fighter-jets-bombers-to-kaliningrad-europe[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-deploys-fighter-jets-bombers-to-kaliningrad-europe does not only cross a Russian "red line" but also unacceptable for China, Iran, many other countries...It does increase risks for more wars, brings closer risks for "very major wars"...Is there a need for NATO moving east ? It goes against agreements made around 1990 NATO not moving east, also goes against the idea that "increasing security for one country will not increase risk for others"...US putting (nuclear) missiles in Ukraine, Kazahkstan, Taiwan, Finland may be "acceptable" with a lot of bribes-for those countries but NOT acceptable for their neighbours...."It does not make Russia-Iran-China happy"...

Most likely US, UK pushing for another global crisis as distraction from the CoViD-disaster in their countries...France, Germany now trying to "limit damage"...nobody willing to "blow up the world" for further nato-expansion...yet another act of global insanity...

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/01/accelerating-global-warming-and-amplifying-feedbacks-the-imperative-of-co2-drawdown.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/01/accelerating-global-warming-and-amplifying-feedbacks-the-imperative-of-co2-drawdown.html ; According to Solomon et al. (2009) and Eby et al. (2009) high levels of CO₂ on the scale of 10² to 10³ ppm would persist for millennia.

Global emission reductions, decreased in part due to COVID-19 economic slow-down, have little effect on the atmospheric CO₂ level, as indicated by the current trend of atmospheric carbon dioxide, at record high levels despite reduced emissions in 2020 (Figure 2). This suggests to a significant extent the current rise in atmospheric CO₂ arises from amplifying feedbacks from land and ocean.

-

All taking place notwithstanding hollow promises made at COP26, a meeting noted for the near-absence of contributions by climate scientists.

In trying to avoid an exponential rise in greenhouse gases toward catastrophic levels, one option exists, namely urgent attempts at drawing down at least part of the CO₂ concentration of the atmosphere. The $trillions of dollars required, constituting the “Price of the Earth”, may not exceed the $trillion dollars military expenses spent by the world over the last 70 years, including nuclear missile fleets which constitute a separate threat for life on Earth, as warned by Albert Einstein: “The unleashed power of the atom has changed everything save our modes of thinking and we thus drift toward unparalleled catastrophe”.

DJ Tsunami's hitting (sea)ice "not good"  on top of global "warming"...(a house-fire is "house-warming" ?) To"save the economy" =get the rich even more rich..."climate change" was taken away from climate science by "politicians, economists, bankers..."...We may expect the same with "public health; living with the virus" ...it will become a "bussiness model" creating "profit-oppertunities" for those that created the problem to start with...

End of part 2...making my mind up...describing things may be a way of dealing with it...however not accepting it...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2022 at 2:06am

DJ-part 3, 

I could start with: The main reason why people do not learn much from history is they do NOT want to learn from history...I could also start with; Stupid people make stupid mistakes, clever people make clever mistakes...Or even; I wise person knows (s)he knows nothing...

"Letting the virus do its thing", "the show must go on" decissions are made by clever people however in strange tunnel-visions...YES It is hard to deal with climate change, this pandemic (or the relations between them). But that does not mean you do not need to deal with it...

On the other side of the story are the limits we-as humans-have to face. Did we "create gods" because we dream of "being gods" ? (It is sunday...). 

[url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2022/01/a-volcano-explodes-off-island-of-tonga.html[/url] or http://www.thebigwobble.org/2022/01/a-volcano-explodes-off-island-of-tonga.html (DJ-Like Hal Turner-I most often disagree with most of the idea's behind ir-however if a story may make sense I link it...)

An underwater volcano has erupted off the island of Tonga blasting rocks, ash and steam an incredible 60,000ft, almost 20km into the sky which will have a cooling climate effect for at least the next couple of months and depending on the duration and size of the eruption could cool the planet...

The shock wave from the eruption is expected to reverberate around the world and windows have been broken from the blast hundreds of km's away.

The strength of the massive eruption was VEI 5, let me put that into some kind of perspective, the famous Krakatau eruption in 1883 was a VEI 6. According to Wikipedia, the Krakatau eruption caused a volcanic winter. In the year following the eruption, average Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures fell by 0.4 °C (0.72 °F). The record rainfall that hit Southern California during the water year from July 1883 to June 1884 – Los Angeles received 970 millimetres (38.18 in) and San Diego 660 millimetres (25.97 in) – has been attributed to the Krakatoa eruption. 

This eruption could be the perfect geological event to cool the planet and will have the climate change people jumping with joy! 

DJ-We may need a lot of volcanic activity like this one to make a more serious difference...

2022 has seen a remarkable uptick in solar, seismic and volcanic activity in the first couple of weeks of the new year.

The fledgling new year has already surprised many scientists and experts as 2022 begins its first baby steps into the unknown. 

Record number of major quakes starts off the new year!

It is very early days indeed but halfway through January 2022 and our planet is throwing quite a few surprises our way! On the 11th of January, two powerful major quakes, a mag 6.8 and a mag 6.6 rocked Alaska's Aleutian Islands. The two major quakes,(mag 6 or higher) in Alaska brought the total to 11 in the first 11 days of 2022 which is quite a start to the year, well—it's a record, going back further than 1900. As far as I can see from the USGS data base 11 major quakes in first 11 days of a year has never happened before. And, it hasn't stopped, this morning a magnitude 6.6 rocked the Sunda Straight in Indonesia bringing the total to 12 major quakes, (mag 6 or higher) in the first 14 days of January, 2022.

We know seismic events on earth are influenced by our sun and so far this year the sunspot count is more than out-performing the "experts" predictions.

DJ Increase of both seismic (and thus) volcanic activities, increase of pandemics are both related to a global heating proces pushing "live" out of places where it did find a balance to exist. 

But relating these events with human actions would make "us" realize we are destroying our home-planet. 

"Market economy", a competition for "economic growth" based on money created out of thin air-"balanced" by "ideas" of future further economic growth resulted in an "economy build on melting ice"...

In my idea of history the goal of history is looking at how human species try "to make a living" over the centuries...What was and is important, from religion (often totalitarian, churches as dictators telling people how to live in detail on a daily basis...taliban/IS-style...only with "another god"...).

Do those that claim "let the virus do its thing" realize the major consequences it has on public health, population growth, life expectancy ? I do doubt it...

Does the "tunnel vision" "countries can decide for themselves if they want to join NATO" look at both how Russia may see it, timing-the pandemic getting even further out of control in the US, UK and some other NATO-members..."No" it is a short sighted wrong idea that you can ignore Russian safety concerns based on an also wrong idea "NATO is defensive"...after NATO was involved in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya...If Russia RE-acts "it is Russian agression" against a "peacefull NATO moving east"idea...Russia-lots of other countries-do not see NATO the way NATO likes to present itself...

The way you think of yourself (most likely will change both short term and long term) is NOT the way others see you...You can not be every ones best friend-should not even try to be...

Media-Experts-Politics have an idea of "how to deal with this pandemic" partly based on how they see themselves, what they expect from themselves, what they think "others" expect from them...with "others" in part party sponsors, in part voters for a next election...no long term plans needed....if you lose the election you are out.  Media needs advertisers, experts/politics for info...Experts need good publicity for their "essential studies" to get funded...

So it is a circle, if not allready a downward spiral....Politics in control of tax/fiat money demanding "experts", "media" not to get that critical...

Most likely in some form this "powercycle" has been there for thousend of years..."division of labor", specialized jobs bringing the group further...those with knowledge on how to make fire, weapons, get food, in special places...cattle/food as trade when money was not there...

We may now face a "crisis" in human creativity on how to be around on this planet and "make the best of it"....Taking "a few steps back" is a very "friendly way" to say something that is very awful..."a few steps back" will "change the way we survive"....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Reset#Criticism[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Reset#Criticism ;

Some critics hence see it as a continuation by the World Economic Forum's strategy to focus on connotated activist topics such as environmental protection[53] and social entrepreneurship[54] to disguise the organization's true plutocratic goals.[55][56][57]

Naomi Klein, in a December 2020 article in The Intercept, described the WEF idea as a "Great Reset Conspiracy Smoothie." She said that it was simply a "coronavirus-themed rebranding" of things that the WEF was already doing and that it was an attempt by the rich to make themselves look good. Klein wrote that Schwab had given each meeting at Davos a theme since 2003. "The Great Reset is merely the latest edition of this gilded tradition, barely distinguishable from earlier Davos Big Ideas."[58]

In his review of the 2020 book co-authored by Schwab and Malleret—and the Great Reset agenda in general—Ben Sixsmith, a contributor to The Spectator, said that the Great Reset was a set of "bad ideas...adopted internationally by some of the richest and most powerful people in the world".[59][3] Sixsmith described sections of the book as "earnest", glum, dutiful and bland.[60]

Similarly, in his review of COVID-19: The Great Reset, ethicist Steven Umbrello makes parallel critiques of the agenda. He says that the agenda amounts to nothing other than "a substantial (if not complete) socio-political-economic overhaul" and that such a proposal is a "false dilemma" and that "Schwab and Malleret whitewash a seemingly optimistic future post-Great Reset with buzz words like equity and sustainability even as they functionally jeopardize those admirable goals".[61]

Also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Reset#Conspiracy_theory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Reset#Conspiracy_theory 

The term "Great Reset" can also refer to a conspiracy theory, named after the conference, which suggests that some world leaders planned and executed the COVID-19 pandemic in order to take control of the world economy.[62]

A November 2020 article in The Daily Beast saw the Great Reset conspiracy theory as the first to emerge during the Presidency of Joe Biden.[63] Mainstream media outlets such as The New York Times, the BBC, and The Guardian traced the spread of the latest conspiracy theory on the Great Reset, which had integrated anti-lockdown conspiracies, to internet personalities and groups, including Candace OwensGlenn BeckFox NewsLaura Ingraham and Tucker Carlson,[46][64][15][65] and Paul Joseph Watson,[66] the UK-based editor of Alex Jones' website Infowars, where he advanced the New World Order conspiracy theory.[67] Ben Sixsmith wrote that the conspiracy theory had been spread by "fringes of Right-Wing Twitter", as well as by Australia's One Nation party leader Pauline Hanson (a "‘socialist left Marxist view of the world’") and UK conservative writer James Delingpole (a "global communist takeover plan"). However, Sixsmith observed the WEF's partners include such capitalist enterprises as Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, IBM, IKEA, Lockheed Martin, Ericsson and Deloitte.[60]

An October 2020 article by Snopes[68] traced the origins of a chain email posted on conspiracy forums from a member of a non-existent committee within the Liberal Party of Canada that leaked Canada's secret "COVID Global Reset Plan" to the QAnon-dedicated "Q Research" board on 8kun.[69]

DJ The right wing extremist reaction and criticism of more left wing intelectuals [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naomi_Klein[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naomi_Klein do not have to exclude eachother...can both even end up being run by the "rich elite" they critiziced...Still also that "elite" "NWO New World Order...(based on money...so not "new"...) does not have the final word...

Nature can be very cruel when it starts "self correcting".....

End of part 3 (I did write something on how this pandemic is developing socio-economic in "Food shortages"...of course a worsening pandemic brings other crises...). 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Littlesmile Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2022 at 7:13am

The 'process' of this virus is so strange especially with more and more evidence/cases of long covid. The unusual vein/blood flow problems would be funny if it wasn't such a serious subject. It is not just the old and unhealthy this is effecting.. I think this will be the key that finally makes people think differently and take action. I feel long covid will be the real struggle! 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2022 at 11:00pm

Littlesmile, ;-), I think-unless we get a "massive killer"variant of CoViD, you are correct-the long term damage, "long CoViD" (in many forms) may trigger a major reaction...Certainly if "mild" Omicron would also be resulting in a certain percentage of people getting "chronic healthissues"...

One problem is there is not yet a very clear definition for "Long CoViD" (like there is not realy a good definition for ME-CFS, part of the Long CoViD-problem). So it is hard to get good statistics...

In this pandemic "cases" are-most-seen as people testing positive, but testing positive for Omicron (BA.1 subvariant) is seen as less a problem then testing positive for Delta (with lots of sub-variants...some experts did expect Delta would be the stop for variants, Delta developing into-by now-allready (over) 215 subvariants [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports (from AY.1 to AY.133, also including sub-sub-variants like AY.4.2.3, the AY.4 "group" goes to AY.4.10 ). 

Omicron - in outbreak- only BA.1, BA.2, BA.3 (some others by now using BA.1.1 as a further division). Testing for Omicron may be even harder then testing for Delta...so "cases" may still have a clear definition...

CoViD-deaths also lots of discussion very likely to increase when numbers of flu-CoViD coinfections increase-like they may well do (people by now less protected against the flu, H3N2 may be quite agressive-being active in South America outside their flu-season, it is summer there...) 








One thing that is not getting reported is that with all prior variants, the mean time from diagnosis to death was 20 days. With omi it is longer. At 27 days and maybe even 30 or more days. This blunder was caused by a failure to use cross correlation to assess the lag.

Hospital cases is even more vague...Here in NL you will not get in a hospital very fast...We have the means to provide lots of-even high tech-care at home. Even in severe cases, people often are "allowed" to die at home...In some poor countries they may have "lots of beds in lots of hospitals" (sometimes financed per available bed)...but all those places may be able to offer is that bed...family supposed to take care of the patient...with 1 doctor on 100,000 people admission to hospital only is a switch of location...

Long CoViD can be many things. From the virus still somewhere doing damage in the body to mental trauma after ICU/intubation...both serious. Organ damage needs other care then ME-CFS like issues of wich we still not know that much...And of course a lot of people with Long CoViD will have a mix of problems...Organ damage, getting into depression when there is not enough support and/or income...

There are numbers for cases and deaths, reasonable numbers on hospital cases allthough it means different things in different countries...For Long CoViD there are only estimates...if you take "healthissues after 6 months" most Long CoViD cases still have to show up. Unclear what Omicron (explosion of cases) may bring...but it is allready clear we are talking about "tens of millions" of people with Long CoViD...

It would be interesting to get more info on "Long CoViD" in China, South Africa, Brazil, Iran...do they deny the problem ? Is there less pressure on people with Long CoViD so it becomes less a problem (long paid sick leave, family support may "give another colour" to the problem). 

Because the other side of Long CoViD is what do you see as normal ? Is it reasonable to expect people allways fully recover ? 

-A short look at weekend numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table  with "limited" sunday testing/reporting still 1,941,970 positive CoViD tests-resulting in "a case". Weekly trend still +14%. Global deaths at 3,992, +9%...the coming two weeks will give indications on how deathly Omicron is. 

One could claim not all the variants have the same timeline...it may take longer before people testing positive-with Omicron-die from it...South Africa cases -38%, deaths-still-at +26% may indicate the "28 days after a positive test criterium, used by the UK, Russia a.o. will miss a lot of Omicron deaths. 

Also BA.1 now is the dominant Omicron subvariant, BA.2 may replace it...people catching Omicron several times have been reported. BA.2 has that many differences (I believe 100+ different mutations/deletions etc.) from BA.1 maybe it would be better to talk about Omicron-A and Omicron-B....  

To get a better understanding of this pandemic one also needs to keep an eye on what variants are doing [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues has two new posts;

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/404[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/404 ; So the growth of AY.127+S:859N is quite consistent as share of AY.127 and overall as share of Delta

DJ-Delta is NOT fully replaced by Omicron ! But testing has run out of capacity, sequencing has been (much to) limited most of this pandemic. We may not have a good view of what Delta is doing. It is very likely co-infections of Delta and Omicron can be found at more places then Cyprus and Italy so far reporting "DeltaCron"...it will result in more severe disease...But also Delta developing, mutating, spreading further...making this pandemic harder. 

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/405[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/405

During the month of December 16 new sequences of B.1.466.2 have been sampled in Jakarta and West Java, clustering each one with different pre-delta Spring-Summer 2021 sequences.
In week 49-50-51 they represents between 1,5% and 2,5% of total sequences in Indonesia.
Obviously is too early to designate but i put them here to enable monitoring of them.

DJ; Will this "local" Indonesia/Jakarta variant "beat" Omicron ? Become a next Variant Of Concern ? There are lots of "limited regional variants of CoViD". Variants so far are related to a lot of people living close together so high spread of a mutated form may see a local variant "get big"...Immunity-most after infection, limited after vaccination-can select for immunity escape. 

Comparing this pandemic with the Spanish FLU (!!!!) pandemic indicates this pandemic is lasting allready longer in "the western world" then the Spanish Flu did. (Depending on definition-some claim H1N1-Spanish Flu started in 1917...). Basic point is people did develop herd/group immunity against that flu then...We may have to forget about herd/group-immunty against CoViD-19 in the present (stage of this) pandemic. 

"Immunity after infection is better than after vaccination" several studies claim-and maybe it could be correct somewhat against being infected with the same (sub)variant...Brazil, Iran (etc) indicate people catching CoViD again after several months-also with "natural immunity after infection". Manaus-Brazil being hit hard twice so far, may face now another round of Omicron/H3N2-flu co-infections...

Vaccines/boosters still offer good protection against severe disease, may offer some protection against Long CoViD...however did not stop the spread...Some studies see vaccinated spreading the same level of virus-after infection as unvaccinated do...only for a shorter time...Spread with no or only mild symptoms is another motor. 

So far children-if infected-most of the times did not get that ill, but also that did change with Omicron...(US now 100 children per month die from CoViD ?).

A last look at numbers for part 1;

Global trend for cases now "sinking to"+14%, deaths up to +9%. 

Europe cases +4%, deaths +2%, UK cases -38%, deaths +41% (last week 1,302, last 7 days 1,834 UK CoViD deaths) UK moving out of the peak-for now (BA.2 however increasing !!!). Germany cases +42%, deaths (still) -15%. Here in NL we had some sort of lockdown, still cinema's and restaurants closed...may have delayed/slowed down the increase of Omicron however cases now +27%, deaths -39%...

North America cases -4%, deaths +11%...US cases -7%, deaths +7%...DJ-I do NOT believe Omicron did peak for all of the US...maybe for some parts, while others may see increases in the coming days...Cuba cases +108% deaths (from 4 to 12, +200% (???)...do they see another Omicron subvariant ? (Outbreak only has TWO sequences from Cuba...so that does not help...)

South America cases +59%, deaths +45%...Brazil cases +109%, deaths +24%...still in early stages of Omicron spread...

Asia cases +76%, deaths +5% maybe even earlier stage then South America is in. India, Philippines (a.o.) high level of BA.2 Omicron...Cases +113%/+111%...Israel cases +89%, deaths +262% (last week 13, last 7 days 47...yesterday Israel reported 14 "new" deaths). Israel did see lots of vaccinations/boosters...most of them in adults with 1/3 of its population under 18 y/o....BA.2 also believed to be increasing...

Africa cases by now -17%, deaths still +9%...Tunesia cases +137%, deaths -11% so Omicron in most of Africa decreasing in new cases-as far as tested...but still increasing in some parts...

Oceania is interesting to see how Australia cases +46%, deaths +179% (from 108 to 301 last 7 days) compares with New Zealand cases -5%...1 death last 7 days, 0 deaths the week before so "deaths +100%"....

End of part 1

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 17 2022 at 12:09am

Part 2, a look at "news..Flutrackers most of the time has a lot of "birdflu" most of them H5N1...often in poultry, sometimes detected in wild birds...It is-by now-not unusual to see H5N1 in lots of parts of the globe this time of year. However the level is very high this winter...

I do not select H5N1 news-most of the times even when it is detected in foxes...However H5N1 is a risk...I do select/look for news on co-infections; Omicron+H3N2, "DeltaCron" coinfections-not (yet) a variant of its own...Also indications for new variants, new symptoms may be interesting in my opinion...but there is such an overload of news...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-were-b-1-640-and-b-1-640-2-outbreaks-in-france-covered-up-because-of-strong-ade-manifestations-b-1-640-now-finally-declared-a-voi[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-were-b-1-640-and-b-1-640-2-outbreaks-in-france-covered-up-because-of-strong-ade-manifestations-b-1-640-now-finally-declared-a-voi ; DJ Was B.1.640.2 covered up because of ADE ? As the (sensationalist ?) article claims ? It is "special" also other news has shown up on B.1.640.2...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/b-1-640/france-b-1-640-declared-a-voi-after-more-than-500-cases-found/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/b-1-640/france-b-1-640-declared-a-voi-after-more-than-500-cases-found/Variant B.1.640 is now classified VOI since the risk analysis of 05/01/2022, on the basis of the continuation of its circulation in France and preliminary in vitro data, indicating a decrease in the effectiveness of neutralization by vaccine or post-infection antibodies, and therefore a possible escape from the immune response. The circulation of B.1.640 continues at low levels in mainland France: 0.1% for the Flash S51 survey and 0.2% for the Flash survey S52.









There has been an odd signal in the French PCR genotyping data since they have been back, and I'd be happy to have feedback on what this might be. White small square1/12

DJ Also looking at French statistics often now showing over 300,000 new cases per day-with a lot more restrictions then the UK has and population numbers France/UK not that different...With 0,1-0,2% of that high number of cases do we see 300-600 B.1.640.2 new cases per day in France ????

Thailand Medical News claiming "possible ADE" could explain these very high French numbers....B.1.640.2 not yet in [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 . However if ADE would play a role-also B.1.640.2 increase in Germany (with BA.2 Omicron subvariant also increasing) it would even further worsen this pandemic...

I would expect more info on twitter if more was known about B.1.640.2 but Flo Debarre in Paris only can mention "an odd signal"....Maybe alarming in itself...Also Flutrackers not-yet-more info....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/935552-did-omicron-arrive-in-china%E2%80%99s-capital-beijing-by-mail-from-canada[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/935552-did-omicron-arrive-in-china%E2%80%99s-capital-beijing-by-mail-from-canada

Did Omicron arrive in China’s capital Beijing by mail from Canada?


https://www.scmp.com/news/china/scie...ng-mail-canada
Did Omicron arrive in China’s capital Beijing by mail from Canada?
  • City’s first case of the Covid-19 variant received a letter from Toronto which had traces of the virus, health authorities say
  • Canada’s public health agency and other experts around the world say there is low risk of spreading through goods or packages
Josephine Ma

Published: 3:19pm, 17 Jan, 2022

Omicron could have entered the Chinese capital Beijing via contaminated mail from Canada, the city’s Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said on Monday.

Pang Xinghuo, deputy director of the Beijing CDC, said the city’s first Covid-19 patient to be diagnosed with the Omicron variant had received a letter mailed from Canada on January 7.

“We do not rule out the possibility that the person was infected through contacting an object from overseas,” she said.

Chinese authorities have repeatedly said they are finding the coronavirus on contaminated imports, usually frozen goods. Some researchers and health authorities overseas have raised doubts this method of transmission, arguing the virus does not survive long enough on surfaces.
...
The Beijing CDC said residents should minimise their purchases of goods from overseas and wear masks and gloves when opening mail from high risk countries. It recommended letters and packages should be opened outside the home and sanitised.

DJ...Cholera did get into Haïti via mail to Nepal UN peacekeepers from Nepal....If most variants do not survive (99% of the time)  travel via mail some variants-1%-still may survive long enough ? Could UV-C be used for incoming mail at post offices/distribution ? (Maybe even UV-C lamps in mail boxes ??? Could stamps mean virus transport ???) 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-japanese-data-shows-that-unlike-other-sars-cov-2-variants,-peak-of-viral-shedding-is-later-with-omicron[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-japanese-data-shows-that-unlike-other-sars-cov-2-variants,-peak-of-viral-shedding-is-later-with-omicron ; DJ (Since I can not copy from this source) So far most CoViD-variants did see high level of viral spread 2 days before-3 days after start of symptoms. This Japan study may have found Omicron may see most of its viral spreading 2 to 3 days later...so most of the spread starting with/after symptoms...also most of the spread in the 10 days-at average-from a positive test. Limiting isolation, quarantine to "just 5 days" may open the door for even more spread. Also testing missing infection could be explained that way...link to [url]https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/10884-covid19-66-en.html[/url] or https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/10884-covid19-66-en.html ;Here, we examined the duration of infectious virus shedding in Omicron cases identified early in this investigation. A total of 83 respiratory specimens from 21 cases (19 vaccinees and 2 unvaccinated cases; 4 asymptomatic and 17 mild cases) were subjected to SARS-CoV-2 RNA quantification using quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction and virus isolation tests. The date of specimen collection for diagnosis or symptom onset was defined as day 0. The amount of viral RNA was highest on 3-6 days after diagnosis or 3-6 days after symptom onset, and then gradually decreased over time, with a marked decrease after 10 days since diagnosis or symptom onset (Figure). The positive virus isolation results showed a similar trend as the viral RNA amount, and no infectious virus in the respiratory samples was detected after 10 days since diagnosis or symptom onset (Table). These findings suggest that vaccinated Omicron cases are unlikely to shed infectious virus 10 days after diagnosis or symptom onset.

Japan cases +312%, deaths +222% !!!! So it is clear why Japan did this study !

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-canadian-study-finds-that-for-individuals-over-50,-even-a-mild-sars-cov-2-infection-can-result-in-serious-mobility-issues[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-canadian-study-finds-that-for-individuals-over-50,-even-a-mild-sars-cov-2-infection-can-result-in-serious-mobility-issues; DJ Omicron does NOT show itself to be "mild" for older persons or (most unvaccinated) children. Since South African numbers on severe cases, deaths were both delayed and BA.3 in South Africa may indicate (that subvariant of) Omicron may be "slow" in getting people very ill claims of "Omicron being mild" are most based on to early "pseudo science"....This [url]https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2787975[/url] or https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2787975 Canadian study looks at outcomes for 50+ y/o over 2020. Still indicating "mild" may not be "mild"for all ages...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/infection/some-people-still-infectious-with-covid-after-68-days/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/infection/some-people-still-infectious-with-covid-after-68-days/ ; A UK study has found that 13 per cent of people still exhibited clinically-relevant levels of virus after 10 days. Some people retained these levels for up to 68 days. 

-

Professor Lorna Harries, of the University of Exeter Medical School, oversaw the study. She said: “While this is a relatively small study, our results suggest that potentially active virus may sometimes persist beyond a 10 day period, and could pose a potential risk of onward transmission. Furthermore, there was nothing clinically remarkable about these people, which means we wouldn’t be able to predict who they are”.

Exeter.ac.uk report

DJ As I did claim-as a non-expert-earlier it is quite likely the virus may "stay behind/hide" in some infected hosts. Blood testing may give some indications...anal swabs (China used them), stool samples may also tell moore...It should not be that hard to get some cheap-at-home tests being made to test your own "stool/poop"...however one can question what a positive stool-test would mean...You may also look for symptoms...

BA.2 in twitter news;  








Replying to 
Thanks! That's a nice report from South-Africa. BA.2 seems mostly upcoming in Kwazulu-Natal, but it looks like we need some more data for the last few weeks, even from more weeks for Gauteng.


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Replying to 
Also seems to be increasing in South Africa this month. While the samples were fewer in January, BA.2 or 21L increased from 4% to 14% in one month. Source: https://nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/sars-cov-2-genomic-surveillance-update/


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Even on the rise in parts of South Africa ! [url]https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma/status/1482670176189431809/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma/status/1482670176189431809/photo/1 showing the SA variant timeline...

[url]https://twitter.com/crowther92/status/1482588520623620098/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/crowther92/status/1482588520623620098/photo/1 Omicron 21K=BA.1, 21.L=BA.2 but limited data...(21.M=BA.3)

Also; 








Some very nice graphs made by  . Please look through the thread for other countries as well. I used his tool to make a graph for the Phillipines. Not many samples, but also from travelers to Japan, we know it has almost a 100% BA.2. And a very steep rise in cases!


Image

See also [url]https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma/status/1482844799212347397/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma/status/1482844799212347397/photo/1 and [url]https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma/status/1482844799212347397/photo/2[/url] or https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma/status/1482844799212347397/photo/2 When you look at Philipines statistics BA.2 exploded...

See also Cornelius Roemer on twitter....(somehow it does not copy the twitter adres...ending up in lots of unwanted extra's....)

End of part 2

Tweet


See new Tweets

Conversatihttps://twitter.com/CorneliusRoemeron


Some very nice graphs made by  . Please look through the thread for other countries as well. I used his tool to make a graph for the Phillipines. Not many samples, but also from travelers to Japan, we know it has almost a 100% BA.2. And a very steep rise in cases!


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Cornelius Roemer

@CorneliusRoemer
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 17 2022 at 10:38pm

DJ, 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-expels-diplomats-and-other-staff-from-us-embassy-moscow[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-expels-diplomats-and-other-staff-from-us-embassy-moscow Russia demanding its security is taken serious by "the West"....In a bizarre tunnelvision "the West" keeps ignoring these Russian concerns...even if the global economy can NOT do without Russian energy....

It is the same kind of "crazy thinking" we see in this pandemic. Vaccines do NOT stop spreading the virus-at best they may limit somewhat (the duration of) the spread...Still vaccinated in many countries get a lot of "freedoms/room for spread" while the "pseudo science" claims "Omicron" (just one variant-in that non-science) is "mild" based on to early made conclusions most based on what South Africa statistics may indicate...

South Africa had a lot of BA.1 Omicron...one of the lessons we now learn it "takes it time to do the harm"....Looking with the idea BA.1 would behave-in time- the same as earlier variants is wrong...People may spread Omicron BA.1 for over 10 days-most of the spread starts after symptoms show up...

BA.2 is that different kind of "Omicron" it may be renamed "Pi"...the next Variant Of Concern...VOC...while a lot of "experts" just claimed Omicron would be the end of this pandemic...

Then there is the unwelcome story of [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/republic-of-congo/czech-republic-b-1-640-family-cluster-identified-in-hradec-kralove-east-bohemia/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/republic-of-congo/czech-republic-b-1-640-family-cluster-identified-in-hradec-kralove-east-bohemia/ with in France B.1.640.2 possibly related with ADE...France also having extreme high number of new cases...DJ-I am-as a non-expert-not yet very convinced of ADE-the virus using the immunity system to get into the host...still B.1.640.2 seems to be sticking around...

BA.2-possibly next VOC "Pi" is detected now around the globe-showing slow increase-against BA.1....Lots of places still detecting Delta sub-variants...often some also increasing. Some limited cases of co-infection of a Delta subvariant with an Omicron subvariant...not yet the "DeltaCron" new recombinated variant...but it may develop further that way...

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/405[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/405 ; During the month of December 16 new sequences of B.1.466.2 have been sampled in Jakarta and West Java 

-

i put this here just to monitor it, no reason to alarm or worries about it. Usually vocs have been anticipated by a raise in cases then linked to a variant. This is NOT the case.

further discussed...risks for this variant seems to be small...but there must be hundreds of these kind of variants with both testing and sequencing overstretched by far...

-How do "we" react...masks...to many people wearing the same masks-if demanded-for weeks in the wrong way in many places. Masks may be the best we have for protection if we have to "mix"...better use good masks (FFP-2, (N)K-95 etc). Vaccine protection going down-as expected by some scientists...but ignored...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/israel-fourth-dose-of-vaccine-gives-limited-protection-against-omicron-infection/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/israel-fourth-dose-of-vaccine-gives-limited-protection-against-omicron-infection/ ...

The anti-science almost global strategy still going for "herd-immunity" as if CoViD-19 is a kind of flu...The level of anti-science in this pandemic is shocking...

-Flu increasing in birds-lots of H5N1...limited detection in other species so far. An older man in the UK living for his birds did catch H5N1...but now seems to be doing okay...H5N6 may be allready a major problem-most in China, detecting human cases... other countries may simply not test for it...Several countries reporting a mix of CoViD (most likely BA.1) and H3N2-flu coinfections...with limited news on other arbovirusses. 

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table reporting just over 2 million global positive tests for a sunday...(reported yesterday...MLK-day in the US, so US numbers getting in today may also be lower). 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table Global cases +12% still-with lots of countries now seeing new cases decreasing. deaths +9%...several countries still see an increase of people dying from "CoViD"...part of the numbers will be Omicron-deaths...but still also Delta-deaths may be high...

In short;

-this pandemic is far from over, several potential new variants of concern VOC around the corner..

-present strategy-or lack of it-making matters even worse

-starting a major war for distraction since most governments fail to be of enough use in this pandemic ?

-"living with the virus" even more ant-science...it is NOT endemic, and CoViD will NOT act like a flu...it is a different "animal"..

-Long CoViD must be in tens of millions of people by now...

-[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/chinas-true-covid-19-death-toll-366-times-higher-official-figure-analyst-says[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/chinas-true-covid-19-death-toll-366-times-higher-official-figure-analyst-says lots of countries not reporting realistic numbers on CoViD, due to lack of testing/reporting but also for political reasons, unreal definitions (dead in 4 weeks after positive test UK, Russia) etc.

Maybe a few "good news" points to end part 1;

-CoViD19 spread into non-human hosts seems to be very limited, and so far maybe even "low risk" (US deer may have a lot of spread-inside the deer population-of a variant close to the Wuhan/wild type...most people may have some form of protection against it...)

-Since there are 4 human-mild-cold coronavirusses, risks for SARS-1 as good as zero, MERS still around but hard to catch, SARS-2/CoViD19 most likely will "go that way" as well...become-at the end-a sort of milder cold...

End of part 1...Try to find time, news, and a will for a part 2...This pandemic going the way climate collapse, Euro-crisis, etc. went...kicking the can down the road politics...no science involved, hope time will solve the problem...and endless empty words...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 18 2022 at 12:12pm

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/935797-the-pandemic%E2%80%99s-true-death-toll-millions-more-than-official-counts[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/935797-the-pandemic%E2%80%99s-true-death-toll-millions-more-than-official-counts

The pandemic’s true death toll: millions more than official counts


Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00104-8

18 January 2022
The pandemic’s true death toll: millions more than official counts
Countries have reported some five million COVID-19 deaths in two years, but global excess deaths are estimated at double or even quadruple that figure.
David Adam

Last year’s Day of the Dead marked a grim milestone. On 1 November, the global death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic passed 5 million, official data suggested. It has now reached 5.5 million. But that figure is a significant underestimate. Records of excess mortality — a metric that involves comparing all deaths recorded with those expected to occur — show many more people than this have died in the pandemic.

Working out how many more is a complex research challenge. It is not as simple as just counting up each country’s excess mortality figures. Some official data in this regard are flawed, scientists have found. And more than 100 countries do not collect reliable statistics on expected or actual deaths at all, or do not release them in a timely manner.

Demographers, data scientists and public-health experts are striving to narrow the uncertainties for a global estimate of pandemic deaths. These efforts, from both academics and journalists, use methods ranging from satellite images of cemeteries to door-to-door surveys and machine-learning computer models that try to extrapolate global estimates from available data...

DJ The best we may be able to get is good estimates...Maybe later on it would be possible to get more realistic numbers. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/929118-france-media-moh-reports-8-possible-covid-19-omicron-variant-cases-november-28-2021-1-confirmed-case-in-reunion?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/929118-france-media-moh-reports-8-possible-covid-19-omicron-variant-cases-november-28-2021-1-confirmed-case-in-reunion?view=stream Trying to see what is happening in France...why such extreme numbers ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/935675-hong-kong-will-cull-thousands-of-hamsters-after-covid-cases-in-a-pet-shop[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/935675-hong-kong-will-cull-thousands-of-hamsters-after-covid-cases-in-a-pet-shop with NL link...hamsters exported from NL ? 

The "new view" on this pandemic politics now comes up with is "it is a new normal" " we have to live with it"...basiccaly "economy first" ...resulting in decrease of testing and MSM reporting..."it is another flu" -  sick....

More tomorrow...



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 18 2022 at 10:11pm

DJ, 

The "new normal" some criminal insane politicians with their corrupt media and "experts" try to sell in numbers; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ;

New cases 3,027,812, +12%. Deaths 8,063 +7% weekly trend..."living with the virus"...."politics/MEP" promoting to "stop testing" because "it is endemic and only mild - we have to save the economy"....Pseudo journalist promoting criminal non-sense in the guardian (of what ?), bbc, (in NL nos, parool...with a history to be proud of-fighting fascists during the war) "BoJo&Co show UK succes" ignoring still high numbers, people limiting contacts, social live for years now...

Of course-even with political, "media"lies-this pandemic is far from over ! Omicron-2/BA.2 increasing, some Delta variants increasing...but US/UK government criminals pushing for war with Russia...after NApoleon, NAzi-scum now NAto has to move east...[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/war-coming-fast-u-s-navy-sorties-22-warships-4-nuclear-subs-in-one-day[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/war-coming-fast-u-s-navy-sorties-22-warships-4-nuclear-subs-in-one-day .

There is NO !!!! public support for yet another war...Even at [url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/forums/military-events.6/[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/forums/military-events.6/ -very pro-US-they are wondering why to go to war now...for Ukraine ?  It is NATO not sticking to promisses made in around 1990 of "not moving East"...it is US/UK agression...

Russia-Iran-China have many allies...in fact it is an agressive west that is getting isolated...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4oDncCqN3c[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4oDncCqN3c the German new FM (Foreign Minister) flying to Moscow...DJ-The present US/UK (with some support in Eastern-newer NATO members-Europe) insanity may "blow up" NATO...

Starting a major war-when the pandemic is out of control-is not a coincident. It is the outcome of a failing political new "market-liberalism dogma".  A "political (lack of) thinking" in wich a group of "managers" did increase their own pay for "letting the market do its job"....A totally disgusting "political class" that came up after the end of the Soviet Union in 1991...Destroying everything "public" ...privatizing to destruction countries then going for regime-change wars across the globe even more then before 1990....

This pandemic is the outcome of governments simply not seeing the job they had to do....An insane, criminal, belief "airlines would stop flying" by themselves during a pandemic, governments have "no role" to play....other then creating money out of thin air and "push zillions" into "the market" resulting in starting hyperinflation, extreme income-inequality...now promothing "to live with the pandemic and war with Russia"...

Why tony blair, bush jr. etc are not in prison for war-crimes ? During the "cold war" we "accepted" reagan, thatcher being good friends with trash like pinochet, mass murderer in Chile. Now we have a "new western elite" supporting neo-nazi's in Ukraine, a fascist (he is even proud of it !) bolsenaro in Brazil...A west supporting "IS moderate terrorists" in the Middle East....trying to kill Assad, murdering Saddam Hussein, Kadaffi....not the most nice men-but at least keeping their country somewhat united....But we have to see the 20.000+ saudi royal family claiming to own "their" country, other "pseudo Arab  royals" as "friends and defenders of democracy".....Have to accept a new "debt based" labor market in the west...working poor as a new normal...no problem if they get ill....for a criminal elite...

A look at some countries/regions "living with the virus"; 

South Africa, cases still -40%, BA.2 Omicron increasing-starting another wave...BA.1 Omicron offering no protection against BA.2....deaths +30% because dying from BA.1 does take longer...the "it is mild claim" based on looking at data for to short of time...

India cases +74%, deaths +22% (also) limited testing, hardly any sequencing but BA.2 dominant in some regions...

Philippines interesting, cases (BA.2 most Manilla region as far as sequencing goes) +48%, deaths -50%...still early stage of spread ? 

Israel cases +21%, deaths +267% (from 12 to 44...boosters have their limits...) 

US cases -7%, deaths -3%, UK cases -39%, deaths +14%...or did these countries "decrease testing" because we have to live with it....They did claim China could have over 1 million CoViD deaths in their propaganda...[url]https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-underreporting-covid-19-death-rate-by-17000-percent-economist-says_4211606.html[/url] or https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-underreporting-covid-19-death-rate-by-17000-percent-economist-says_4211606.html ...DJ- I do not think China is giving realistic numbers for both cases and deaths...China does violate basic human rights in its fight against CoViD...but "let CoviD do its thing" most likely is even worse....

The "war" between the US/Uk and most of the rest of the world is hindering a realistic view on Russian, Chinese, Cuba-Iran vaccines, treatments...Russia and China now dominant on the global market for vaccines, pharma (India fighting its own battle-needing their pharma-industry for domestic needs). 

You need an economy to have healthcare....however the present lack of any strategy or realism in most of the west is making this pandemic worse-not better. 

On twitter I notice a "growing silence" (mixed with disbelief) that "UK having 1,904 deaths last 7 days, 1,668 the week before" represents a "new normal we have to live with"....thousends of Long CoViD-cases per day "no problem" for B0J0&Co....children ending up in hospital is "okay"....shocking and insane....

The outcome of the "it is only mild-we have to live with it" campain [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/19/40-parents-wont-get-child-vaccinated-covid[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/19/40-parents-wont-get-child-vaccinated-covid is a drop in people willing to get (their children) vaccinated, going for boosters or testing....Since politics again chooses to ignore science (like a.o. in the climate collapse dossier) we may end up with an "endemic" out of control but denied by a lot of (western) governments.....

DJ-I am almost writing scenario's for two years now. I did expect a "worst case scenario" could increase "risks of global conflict"  also back then...But I did NOT expect denialism as new way of (not) dealing with this pandemic....For that matter "new politics" went beyond my imagination....but it fits in with how "politics" does NOT deal with climate "change/collapse" ...short term gain, "saving the economy-getting a few people very rich" is "worth sacrificing the globe" on the long run....

The US economy is dependent on the US$ being linked with global energy trade (it is paid for in US$...China used to pay Russia for oil and gas in US$...not any longer...). Ending the US-petro-$ could turn the US into a "Brazil like economy" with a big army....(and Google, Apple, Facebook major economic players maybe next to "outsource" their activities to EurAsia with 5 of the allmost 8 billion people living there...). 

The US overplayed and overstretched itself....could not win wars in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan...now willing to self-destruct in a war with Russia-that will find China on its side....A US republican government would go for war with China, biden now starting a war with Russia....running out of major allies....learning the hard way US has to start talking and stop fighting...because at the end the US is fighting itself...

End of an angry part 1....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 18 2022 at 11:44pm

Part 2, news/twitter...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; “as we move toward the possibility of #COVID19 becoming endemic” sure is a weird way to say “while we are currently in the middle of the largest #COVID19 surge of this pandemic”

and 








Germany reports 93,912 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record - 







In just one year, we have officially given up on preventing the primary efficacy endpoint of #SARS2 vaccine trials: symptomatic #COVID. We've gone back centuries in the past in embracing disease again without yet knowing its full consequences.

DJ, repeating mistakes from the past but expecting a "better outcome" brings in the question for what group the outcome has to be better...follow the money is giving the answer. However the next question is does democracy fail in protecting public interest...going out of balance for private interests ....Time will tell. 

We can predict that those who insist that case numbers don't matter will invariably be the first to declare the pandemic “over” once case numbers peak. They will insist we can then declare that we can forever forget about any precautions








It looks like my prediction is on its way to coming true. But the example of S Africa suggests that the peak in deaths may be greatly delayed following the Omicron case numbers peaking

Denialism as a "strategy"....








Lots of people asking if UK cases are really falling, or have we just exceeded testing capacity or seeing effect of the pause in requiring confirmatory PCRs By comparing ONS infection survey to dashboard cases, we see the trends match. The fall in cases in recent days is real White heavy check mark

DJ Maybe balance UK testing numbers with ZOE info [url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map indicating numbers are going from very, very extreme to very extreme....based on selfreporting...And again BA.1 Omicron seems to be replaced by BA.2 soon....in Denmark resulting in cases +34%, deaths +10%...; After stalling a bit, Denmark's Omicron wave shows no sign of rapid decline as we've seen in South Africa or the UK. The BA.2 variant has been rising much faster than Omicron (BA.1) in DK and is already dominant. Cases in DK will therefore probably keep rising for a while.

From [url]https://twitter.com/MichielOH/status/1483199970375348224[/url] or https://twitter.com/MichielOH/status/1483199970375348224 








4% BA.2 for Amsterdam, yesterday.

DJ; "media-experts-politics bloc" simply ignoring these facts is shocking....








I believe I wrote it somewhere at the start of this pandemic. 'for some people a crisis is a winning bussiness model'.

DJ-Like climate "change" did see a "green energy" revolution while the basics-doing much more with much less energy-is ignored...

When I think back of when I started this scenario's almost 2 years ago-I expected it would maybe get a little worse then SARS-1 in 2003....I still think it was controllable in the early stages-but you need government action to do the controls....I did not foresee 2021 would bring TWICE !!!! global spread of variants via airtravel....Maybe I was even "over-optimistic" at the start....

End of part 2...(before I make a mess with twitter-copies)

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Littlesmile Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 19 2022 at 4:33am

2 years is along time Josh!! I would never have called myself optimistic but alot of things I didn't even expect to happen.. I can't help feeling the world is spiralling out of control. With no one in the drivers seat!!!.. What will the next 2 years hold? 



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Littlesmile Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 19 2022 at 4:34am

Also the 'joinzoe' is great thank you 😊 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 19 2022 at 10:54pm

Littlesmile, you are welcome, 

DJ, after "summer will save us", "vaccines will save us" now a dominant form of pseudo-science is "it is mild" also "pandemic gone endemic"....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic ; pandemic (from Greek πᾶνpan, "all" and δῆμοςdemos, "local people" the 'crowd') is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals.

 A widespread endemic disease with a stable number of infected individuals is not a pandemic. 

Widespread endemic diseases with a stable number of infected individuals such as recurrences of seasonal influenza are generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than being spread worldwide.

DJ Wordgames as a strategy...CoVid "under control" in the UK, "not being spread worldwide"????

A look at the "UK succes"....january 19, 108,069 positive tested cases, -37%, 359 deaths that day reported +8%....BoJo&Co conclusion; "stop testing"...have to live/die with it....1,865 UK CoViD deaths last 7 days, 1,723 the week before..."no problem"....

Global cases 3,464,403 positive tests being reported, +11%, 8,842 deaths +7%,"mild"....

A look at South Africa, some of the "experts" base their story on SA numbers; cases 4,322, -39%. 156 deaths +15% (last 7 days 877, the week before 763). [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/ has a clear peak of cases for december 12...37,875 cases...we are now over 1 month further and SA deaths still going up in numbers....

A year ago-january 19, 2021 SA had a peak of 844 deaths. July 13 did see 637 deaths...so yesterdays 359 deaths is still "limited" but it also still increasing...BA.1 Omicron is a "slow killer" not fitting in a definition of dying within 4 weeks of a positive test...Given the high level of natural immunity after infection SA is showing the limits of "natural immunity protection"....

Denmark-BA.2 Omicron dominant since january 10 (more or less) cases +48%, deaths still -8%. Germany cases +49%, deaths -26%....

Israel-lots of boosters, young population, cases +103%, deaths an alarming +188% (25 last week going to 72 last 7 days...)

A look at some news/twitter; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/tuberculosis/935845-tb-now-officially-a-covid-comorbidity-disease-compromises-lungs-that-virus-also-targets[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/tuberculosis/935845-tb-now-officially-a-covid-comorbidity-disease-compromises-lungs-that-virus-also-targetsNew Delhi: The central government’s latest guidelines for clinical management of Covid-19 cases lists tuberculosis (TB) as one of the diseases that can put patients at “high risk” of severe infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Ailments like hypertension, diabetes and others that can compromise immunity are also on the list.

... The latest clinical management guidelines, released Monday, include sevencategories of people who are at “high risk” of severe Covid or mortality because of it — people aged above 60 years, those with cardiovascular disease, hypertension and coronary artery disease (CAD), people suffering from diabetes mellitus or immunocompromised states (such as HIV), patients of active tuberculosis, patients of chronic lung kidney or liver disease, people with cerebral vascular diseases, and obese people.

https://theprint.in/health/tb-now-of...argets/806327/

DJ CoViD and TB mixing makes both worse...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/latest-study-published-in-the-lancet-shows-that-boosters-shots-of-mrna-vaccines-do-not-prevent-omicron-breakthrough-infections[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/latest-study-published-in-the-lancet-shows-that-boosters-shots-of-mrna-vaccines-do-not-prevent-omicron-breakthrough-infections  but "no problem it is only mild" ;

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/university-of-california-study-warns-that-even-mild-sars-cov-2-infections-will-result-in-abnormalities-in-cerebrospinal-fluid-and-also-cognitive-issue[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/university-of-california-study-warns-that-even-mild-sars-cov-2-infections-will-result-in-abnormalities-in-cerebrospinal-fluid-and-also-cognitive-issue  or 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/india-delta-variant-found-in-the-brain-of-a-dead-wild-leopard/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/india-delta-variant-found-in-the-brain-of-a-dead-wild-leopard/

Scientists from the Indian Veterinary Research Institute have detected Covid infection in a dead wild leopard cub in Uttar Pradesh. Genomic sequencing of samples from the carcass of the cub revealed that it had been naturally infected with the Delta variant.

“Though the necropsy findings suggested traumatic injuries as the immediate cause of death; detection of virus in various tissues indicates systemic SARS-CoV-2 infection of the animal prior to sudden death due to trauma inflicted by another carnivore. Presence of virus in the brain section suggests infection of central nervous system in wild felid which has previously been demonstrated in humans only”

Preprint: Systemic infection of SARS-CoV-2 in free ranging Leopard (Panthera pardus fusca) in India

indication for CoViD spread in animals..."we have to live with it"...

Going for "herd immunity" is another "pseudo science" spread by "experts"....what herd-immunity ? People catching CoViD19 variants over and over again ? 

CovGlobe view of areas which may be ahead of the curve on BA.2 (and which are also reporting fast enough for this to show up) https://covglobe.org/?lineages=A%2CB%2CB.1.1.7%2CB.1.177%2CB.1.351%2CB.1.1.529%2CB.1.617.2%2CP.1%2CBA.2%2CBA.1&colours=7%2C3%2C1%2C0%2C4%2C8%2C6%2C2%2C5%2C0&lineage=BA.2&latitude=21.145948&longitude=53.194747&zoom=1.151400&area=overview&date=2022-01-16&scale=quadratic&uncertainty=1
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Image

From [url]https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1483816476767395841[/url] or https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1483816476767395841 

For the UK ; Dr Chaand Nagpaul, chair of @TheBMA: "This decision clearly is not guided by the data. When Plan B was introduced in December, there were 7,373 patients in hospital in the UK - the latest data this week shows there are 18,9791. Case rates too are nearly twice as many."

This makes it so clear that the release of *all* measures right now (esp masks, esp schools) is only to protect himself & his job. Boris has zero interest in protecting others from getting sick, needing hospital or dying. Or protecting businesses, schools, NHS from disruption.

 from [url]https://twitter.com/chrischirp[url] or https://twitter.com/chrischirp 

DJ So what will be the next step ? [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-my-guess-russia-will-invade-ukraine-i-dont-know-if-putin-decided-what-he-wants[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-my-guess-russia-will-invade-ukraine-i-dont-know-if-putin-decided-what-he-wants ...put NATO troops at Russian borders and claim Russian Army inside Russia is Russian agression.....NATO moving east is Okay...

Can't fix stupid leads to a world gone crazy....[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-gives-us-nato-48-hours-to-respond-to-treaty-initiative[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-gives-us-nato-48-hours-to-respond-to-treaty-initiative with "western free press" forgetting Russia and China are allies...most of the world fed up with (US) wars....

Not only the UK gone mad...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/20/dutch-covid-policy-must-change-mayors-say-call-help[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/20/dutch-covid-policy-must-change-mayors-say-call-help in NL hospital cases at a low...IKEA open but musea closed..."media" pushing "it is mild" stories...number of people willing to get vaccinated/ a booster also at a low...

In the US ; 








Because nothing screams stability like hastily certified National Guard members babysitting classrooms full of children. The screen grab right under the words from the press release is something else. “MORE HELP IN THE CLASSROOM”

"Limiting time for quarantine" to only 5 days will see most infected people spreading Omicron after those five days...peak of spread is after start of symptoms...

End of part 1...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2022 at 2:33am

part 2, 

Trying to get more insight in the BA.2 subvariant of Omicron; [url]https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1483768659420094464[/url] or https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1483768659420094464 ;

Replying to 
First off - what is BA.2? BA.2 is a sister lineage to BA.1. Currently both lineages are defined as the Omicron variant. As  shows - BA.2 shares a lot of mutations with BA.1, but it also has many differences








Next what is BA.2 currently doing? BA.2 appears to be the major Omicron lineage in (part of) India and the Philippines and there is evidence it is growing compared to BA.1 in Denmark, the UK and Germany as shown nicely by  below


DJ looking at some limited news BA.2 did see a much higher number of cases both in the Philippines as in parts of India. Also Denmark, Germany see high growth (+48%/+49%) at allready high levels. 

Another look at BA.1 Omicron;









Round pushpinReally interesting that SA deaths are increasing a lot, more than a month after the peak in cases. #Omicron is not following the usual 14-21 day lag seen for other waves. Also, there is large >30% excess deaths above historical average—3000 excess/week. Figure by .


Image


DJ, It is much to early to claim "it is mild"....(part of the delay in numbers related to christmas/new year). 









3) We are a whole month into #Omicron wave and only now are people waking up that Omicron is not so “mild” as propaganda machines have foretold it to be. Only a bit milder intrinsically— but exponential math swamps any intrinsic mildness.

Pseudo-science from "experts-for-sale" like the ones we see in the "climate change" story....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Sublineages_and_stealth_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Sublineages_and_stealth_variant

As of 19 December 2021, BA.2 appeared to be very rare with about twenty known cases from half a dozen countries.[38] Though restricted by limited sequencing data, by early January 2022 it appears to have become dominant in India (also making up almost 80 percent in Kolkata[45]) and the Philippines, and had become frequent in South Africa and Scandinavia.[46][47][48] In the first week of January 2022, BA.2 had increased to 28 percent of all sequenced cases in Denmark compared to 68 percent BA.1, and Statens Serum Institut did not yet see any differences in infectiousness, vaccine resistance or other parameters compared to BA.1.[49] As of 17 January 2022, BA.2 has been detected in about 35 countries and in all continents except Antarctica.[43]

DJ [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=DNK[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=DNK  (takes time to load...) BA.2 now 7% of all DK samples of last 60 days. [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?loc=DNK&pango=BA.2&selected=DNK[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?loc=DNK&pango=BA.2&selected=DNK BA.2 going up....

[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=PHL[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=PHL showing BA.2 47%, BA.1 53% in the Philippines last 60 days...(Cases +26%, deaths -61%...BA.2 just started less then a month ago ?)








What is an "acceptable" # of COVID-19 deaths in US? Lots of folks suggesting that post-omicron we can pretend we're post-pandemic. But 1K deaths/d = 365K deaths/yr Flu avg is ~35K/yr We need avg ~100deaths/day to get near flu We've never had daily avg <225 since Mar 2020


Image

DJ Also claiming "herd immunity" (natural/vaccine) would be "the only way out" is false...1. It is not a way out since we do not see any herd immunity, 2. The "only possible way out" may be keeping cases as low as possible...otherwise you only have to expect a never-ending pandemic destroying the economy...not saving it...









REMINDER—when a #COVID19 wave Water wave crests— we are only 50% through the wave… the other **half of all cases occur on the way down**. Rightwards arrowThus, keep in mind— hitting peak means we are only halfway through a marathon. Many places have not peaked yet. Stay vigilant. Folded hands 

There is another side of each peak....








My son (6) is positive for covid. So we decided to do a little experiment. On the left is a flowflex lateral flow test with just a nasal swab (as advised) - negative. On the right is a flowflex lateral flow test (same batch) where we swabbed the throat instead - positive.

As a reminder...the faster you get a result may indicate a higher viral load. Still most governments/CDC claim only nasal tests should be used...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/economics-in-the-pandemic/935999-world-s-10-richest-men-double-wealth-in-the-pandemic-while-99-of-incomes-drop-group-say[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/economics-in-the-pandemic/935999-world-s-10-richest-men-double-wealth-in-the-pandemic-while-99-of-incomes-drop-group-sayAs the rest of the world suffered financially amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the 10 richest men in the world doubled their fortunes, according to a report by economic justice and advocacy group Oxfam. ...

DJ-Just like "climate change/collapse" this pandemic has become a bussines/profit oppertunity with politics, media, experts for sale...

 Background; [url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/forums/military-events.6/[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/forums/military-events.6/ trying to follow war-preparations...[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/us-amphibious-assault-ships-to-try-crimea-take-back-from-russia[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/us-amphibious-assault-ships-to-try-crimea-take-back-from-russia 

I find it hard not to relate NATO moving east-crisis with the way this pandemic is getting out of control...France yesterday reporting 436,167 new cases, +11% India 317,532 new cases, +57% may-a.o. countries-indicate several variants could be increasing and vaccines less effective then claimed. 

I was hoping to find more news on co-infections, other variants, what some Delta variants might be doing...ran out of time...

End of part 2...stay safe & sane !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2022 at 8:49pm

DJ, 

Making my mind up-on this forum ; Some dominant western views; Russian military INSIDE Russia are a major threat, Russian agression...NATO forces at Russian borders is "defensive"....Another common wisdom "Getting CoViD is boosting herd immunity".....

With "politics" at this level of insanity CoViD may be the minor problem....

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table may offer some basic info...where peak still has to show itself, where cases go up, where number of deaths go up ...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/20/rivm-many-coronavirus-infections-process-covid-icu-total-falls-300[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/20/rivm-many-coronavirus-infections-process-covid-icu-total-falls-300 ; The RIVM received so many new reports of coronavirus infections in recent days that the information systems can no longer handle the influx of data. About 27,000 positive tests have not yet been processed over the past three days. "We are working hard on solutions to catch up and remedy this backlog," the institute reports. DJ, Among others UK had some of these problems as well...

Total new reported, tested "cases = positive CoViD-tests"; 3,554,394 +10%, reported deaths; 9,074 +8%. The day before we did see 3,595,136 new cases-for now that may be the record high...january 19 also 9,084 deaths-those numbers are getting close to the 10,000 deaths+ per day we did see during the peaks last year. Highest number of deaths on a day reported was january 27-2021 with 17,517 reported deaths. During the Delta outbreak India must have had much more deaths per day-only testing/reporting capacity (and denial-politics) did /do stop getting realistic numbers from India. 

China only sees people with symptoms as "a case", UK, Russia see "CoViD deaths" dying within 4 weeks after positive testing...under reporting tens-of-thousend CoViD-deaths....NL excluding care-center CoViD-deaths...all people dying in NL in carecenters die "from old age" even if they die from CoViD...

An estimate of around 20 million CoViD deaths so far in this pandemic may-in my opinion (again I am NOT an expert, NOT objective, NOT neutral...)- be on the lower side..."pandemic deaths" those that died because of this pandemic, including also those that did not get non-CoViD care in time may be towards 30 million ? Excess deaths-above what statistics data would expect-a global 40 million ??? But that number may also include people dying from heat waves, wars, cold, traffic etc...

A look at regions;

Europe yesterday 1,510,614 cases-so (still) around 40% of the 3,5 global number, trend +11%, European deaths at 3,106 trend +0,9% Europe 1/3 of global deaths....the numbers may indicate CoViD has not peaked in most of Europe...

North America 838,773 new cases trend -9%, deaths at 3,338 (higher then those from Europe) trend +9%...most of North America could have peaked...

South America 377,452 new cases trend+33%, deaths at 829, trend +85%...South America still on its way up...

America's 1,216,225 new cases, 4,167 deaths-around 40% of the global number...

Asia reporting 707,995 new cases +42%, 1,408 deaths -0,7% still in early stages...

Africa 43,955 new cases -10%, 338 deaths +5%....a lot of Africa did see new cases peak over a month ago...deaths still going up now means Omicron-BA.1 time between positive test and people dying from it is (much) longer then so far seen with earlier variants...Dying more slowly = mild ? 

Oceania 75,605 new cases (higher then the number from Africa ! Most of it from Australia) trend -13%, 55 deaths, +67% "peaked";

Australia yesterday 75,116 new cases, -13% and 55 deaths +69%

New Zealand 85 new cases, +6%, 0 deaths....

- A look at some other countries;

France extreme numbers 425,183 new cases yesterday still +15%, deaths 245 +4%....

Germany 134,930 new cases, +46%. 176 deaths -29%...both countries not yet peaked...

UK cases as far as reported 107,364 -32%, 330 deaths +2%...other sources claim UK has a "delay" in reporting positive tests...in most countries testing/reporting could see problems....most likely the UK did "peak" but numbers are not going down as fast as UK government claims....

USA cases 692,320 -12%, 2,700 deaths still +3%...for some parts of the US cases may have peaked...

Israel 68,513 new cases +72%, 8 deaths yesterday weekly trend +185% "explosion of cases"...

India 347,254 new cases +46%, 703 deaths +41%

Philippines 31,173 new cases, +14%, 110 deaths -58%

Comparing this Omicron-BA.1 (most) wave with earlier-other variant waves, so far number of cases something like 5x higher ? Deaths still not at 10,000 per day but will get over that number soon....So comparing number of cases with number of deaths "Omicron may look mild" but maybe even more-like Africa indicates "slow" could be a better word....

Another major difference is that Omicron BA.1 may not even get dominant...Philipines, India, Denmark have BA.2 as the dominant (sub)variant...must also be a lot of Delta subvariants around, local variants...

France has more restrictions then the UK still France numbers are "extreme"....

Testing capacity often was at limits, with not enough samples sequencing can not get a good enough view on the variants....

In many countries a lot of new cases are in the young(er) age groups....with also a lot of young people getting into hospital this time...

Coinfections; "Flu-Rona" CoViD with most H3N2 reported in South America, limited in Israel...."Deltacron" catching both Delta and Omicron sub-variants (not yet a new variant itself-but co-infection) also reported in SE Europe (most in Cyprus). 

The B.1.640.2 variant-first detected in France remains a big ???? French statistics are "much higher" then most other countries in the region have...so most likely there could be a "more agressive" (sub)variant in (parts of) France...

I try to get more background at part 2, end of part 1

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part 2, 

A welcome tool to get a better view on this pandemic; [url]https://covglobe.org[url] or https://covglobe.org/ ....

Some of the news; 

- [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/409[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/409

Description

We report a new potential BA.1 sublineage specifically located in Campania, Italy. It was identified because its frequency is rapidly growing in Campania, particularly near Naples. In the first weeks of 2022 the proposed new lineage represented over the 30% of all the sequences identified in the region.

List of genomes:

GISAID_hcov-19_ids_2022_01_20_16_29.csv

Sublineage of: BA.1

Countries circulating:

To date about ~121 samples have been identified in the world, almost all located in Italy. A couple of sequences also in Czech Republic and England.

Earliest date: 2021-12-14
Most recent date: 2022-01-13

DJ In comments some wonder if this BA.1 sublineage is anything major. Also some links with early Norway Omicron and mutations seen in AY.123 Delta in Belgium...Italy statistics; cases now +4%, deaths +33%

As far as I-non-expert-may have an opinion...Italy statistics may indicate the mutations that were detected do not (yet) bring much of an increase for all of Italy. However if a region sees cases going "vertical" it is worth extra attention. 

- [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-world-1-in-daily-covid-cases-per-capita-exposed-schoolkids-wont-quarantine/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-world-1-in-daily-covid-cases-per-capita-exposed-schoolkids-wont-quarantine/


Israel is leading the world in new daily COVID-19 cases per capita, data showed Thursday.

Speaking to Channel 12 news, a top health expert advising the government cited figures from Our World in Data showing 0.6 percent of the population was testing positive per day.

The numbers comparing each country’s seven-day running average put Israel at the top, Prof. Eran Segal of The Weizmann Institute said.


But Segal noted it was likely that Israel was not truly the country with the highest infection rate. Rather, he attributed the figures to Israel being a leading country in the number of tests performed each day, relative to its population size.

Israel is followed in the highest daily cases worldwide ranking by Mongolia, Peru, Canada and Georgia.

-

At the peak of the current outbreak wave, Segal said one in ten Israelis will test positive for COVID, if they are tested.

Once Israel passes the peak, he said, “there will be a relatively fast decline” from those figures.

Ministry data showed nearly 65,000 people tested positive for COVID on Wednesday, as current active infections climbed to over 400,000.

Over 2 million have been infected since the onset of the pandemic in 2020.

The number of Israeli patients seriously ill with COVID-19 rose to 593, according to figures published Thursday.

Among those in serious condition, 112 were on ventilators. Overall, 1,680 patients with COVID were hospitalized on Thursday, mostly in light or moderate conditions.

-

Those who test positive on the fourth or fifth day are required to keep isolating for a total of seven days, without having to conduct an additional test.

DJ; Some points, Israel has a high level of vaccines/boosters...but NOT that much in the 1/3 of the young population (not even starting minorities; orthodox jews, Arabs in Israel...) part of the explanation for the high numbers...[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=ISR[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=ISR ; BA.1 Omicron allmost all of the Israel cases (?) with (very limited) BA.2 subvariant of Omicron spreading...Studies indicate viral spread with BA.1 is starting after symptoms show....so isolation till day 5-nasal swab test-simply is ineffective to be of much use...throat-swab, isolation for 10 days-from a pandemic point of view-much more effective...

If 1 person-needed at a workplace-gets in to early (s)he may infect others causing much more hours/days lost....

-[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-scientist-warns-that-new-omicron-sublineage-ba-2-will-cause-new-surge-and-reinfections-globally-as-previous-omicron-infection-may-offer-no-pr[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-scientist-warns-that-new-omicron-sublineage-ba-2-will-cause-new-surge-and-reinfections-globally-as-previous-omicron-infection-may-offer-no-pr otection....

DJ (I can not copy from this source) There have been warnings for BA.2 for a few weeks...[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false detected in (at least) 43 countries and numbers of BA.2 going vertical.....

Basic point from this story is that French cases are not going down because of (undetected most) BA.2 spread, even reinfecting those that recently did see BA.1 infection....DJ The BA.2 has both E484K and N501Y mutations; EeK and NellY...see also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Notable_missense_mutations[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Notable_missense_mutations ; E484K has been reported to be an escape mutation (i.e., a mutation that improves a virus's ability to evade the host's immune system.

This change is believed by PHE to increase binding affinity because of its position inside the spike glycoprotein's receptor-binding domain, which binds ACE2 in human cells; data also support the hypothesis of increased binding affinity from this change.

The name of the mutation, del 69-70, or 69-70 del, or other similar notations, refers to the deletion of amino acid at position 69 to 70. The mutation is found in the Alpha variant, and could lead to "spike gene target failure" and result in false negative result in PCR virus test

DJ Maybe related ? ; 

Lineage B.1.640.2 (also known as the IHU variant[213]) was detected in October 2021 by researchers at the Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire (IHU) in Marseille.[214] They found the variant in a traveler who returned to France from Cameroon and reportedly infected 12 people.[215][216] The B.1.640 lineage, which includes B.1.640.2, was designated a variant under monitoring (VUM) by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 22 November 2021.[217] However, the WHO has reported that lineage B.1.640.2 has spread much slower than the Omicron variant, and so is of relatively little concern.[216][218] According to a preprint study, lineage B.1.640.2 has two already known spike protein mutations – E484K and N501Y – among a total of 46 nucleotide substitutions and 37 deletions.[215][219][220]

Very limited reporting on it....may need a lot of work to get detected....(some claims of ADE-but so far no real proof...would also be spreading-slowly-in Italy, UK...)

DJ-BA.2 may be the next wave....








Rapid growth of BA.2 in Norway. And an increase in new hospital admissions for 0-17 year olds, which could of course still be because of BA.1 as well.

among others trying to follow BA.2. "Living with the virus"political insanity-now dominant even with some "experts", (some even pushing to stop testing...again) gives BA.2, other (sub)variants all the room to spread. Keeping schools open without good protection/strategy will damage children even more...most of them are not (fully) vaccinated...

So far the idea was getting infected would offer at least some protection for limited time. People testing positive twice-with (a) negative test(s) in between could indicate the virus was hiding in the body...There are lots of reports of people now "catching Omicron more then once".....Maybe even the bad news could be BA.2 may be close to be able to reinfect over and over again ? Maybe "milder" (then Delta) but-over time-because of the maybe unlimited times (???) it may reinfect much more destructive ????

-[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/italy-385-covid-deaths-and-188000-new-cases-in-one-day-despite-the-strongest-restrictions-on-earth/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/italy-385-covid-deaths-and-188000-new-cases-in-one-day-despite-the-strongest-restrictions-on-earth/ (maybe linked to [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/409[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/409 above) ; Italy is now in the midst of one of the worst Omicron battles in the world, despite compulsory vaccinations, vaccine passports, fines for not being vaccinated, and all the other accoutrements of a dystopian police state.

DJ [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=ITA[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=ITA BA.1 allmost dominant in the last days...however a few cases of BA.2 reported, B.1.640 sub variants involved ? Both testing and sequencing may be overstretched....If Omicron can be spread for 10-14 days after a positive tests it may be hard to contain...

-[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-1129-covid-deaths-in-three-days/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-1129-covid-deaths-in-three-days/ ;

There have been 1,129 Covid deaths in the last 3 days in the UK. Coronavirus cases are now rising again. Does this sound like the final days of a two year-long pandemic, or the right time to remove ALL mitigations?

We can only think of four possible reasons why the UK government are removing all Covid mitigations in the middle of a winter wave:

1) It’s camouflage for Boris Johnson’s spectacular career implosion

2) There’s a party booked for 10 Downing Street this weekend

3) There’s been an outbreak of mass delusion in the entire ruling elite

4) The UK needs to raise more taxes in a hurry

 

Covid cases are back on the rise:

 

1,129 Covid deaths in 3 days:

 

1,125 Covid deaths in three days is over FOUR TIMES the number of British casualties during the ENTIRE Falklands war. 255 British servicemen were killed liberating the Falklands.

Sadly, you can’t just wish away a pandemic, no matter how hard you try.  There is absolutely no way this can end well.

DJ, Of course the sad news is a lot of other countries not doing that much better...."We want this pandemic to be over" may see "politicians" claiming "this pandemic is over (or there even was never a pandemic)" getting votes....There is a growing anti-science sentiment pushed by Media-Experts-Politics doing a horrible bad job....Resulting in the deaths of millions more, making this pandemic even worse...further pushing the world towards 18th century standards for public health...except for a corrupt criminal elite making money out of this global disaster...

Starting yet another war so "leaders can show leadership"; liberating Russian oil and gas is insane..."can't fix stupid-even if stupid kills us all"....

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 3,

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_Loaf[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_Loaf ; Michael Lee Aday (born Marvin Lee Aday; September 27, 1947 – January 20, 2022), better known as Meat Loaf, was an American singer and actor. He was noted for his powerful, wide-ranging voice and theatrical live shows. His Bat Out of Hell trilogy—Bat Out of HellBat Out of Hell II: Back into Hell, and Bat Out of Hell III: The Monster Is Loose—has sold more than 65 million albums worldwide.[1] More than four decades after its release, the first album still sells an estimated 200,000 copies annually and stayed on the charts for over nine years, making it one of the best-selling albums in history.

DJ; This pandemic was bat-related...bats carry more then 30 corona-virusses. Some of those virusses ending up in non-bat-hosts are related to major outbreaks, not only in humans. "Bat out of hell" may be a good description for how the pandemic started....

International background,

DJ, France, Germany joining "the west" in "being united against Russian agression"....but "that west can not do without Russian energy...". So "the strong voices" most likely most for show....The international crisis because of an urge for NATO to "go east"-and do so now-in the middle of a worsening pandemic (some "leaders claim to be over) however is very real....

Further NATO agression-including Ukraine in NATO-will bring us very close to global conflict. US military in Taiwan is crossing a red line for China...[url]https://thesaker.is/a-short-term-geopolitical-forecast/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/a-short-term-geopolitical-forecast/ ;

At the Olympics Putin and Xi will be signing a raft of major agreements, one of which may transform the already very strong relationship between China and Russia into an actual military alliance. The tripartite world order announced by Gen. Milley, in which the US, Russia and China figure as equals, will have lasted all of three months. 


With Russia and China acting as a unit, the SCO, which by now includes almost all of Eurasia, becomes more than just a geopolitical pole. In comparison, the US and the 29 dwarves of NATO do not quite add up to a geopolitical pole and the world once again becomes unipolar but with the polarity flipped.


And so we should not expect any military action to take place between February 4th and February 20th. Should any military mischief occur during the Olympics, which is traditionally a time of peace in the world, it is sure to be a Western provocation, since the Olympics are a traditional time of Western provocations (Georgia during the Beijing Olympics in 2008; the Ukraine during the Russian Olympics in Sochi in 2014). We can be sure that everyone is very much prepared for this provocation and that it will be dealt with very harshly.

DJ This may be a Russian view, I do not think it is an unrealistic one...We may not like, I would love this pandemic never showed up, "wishfull thinking" is NOT a strategy...The "west" unable to show at least some basic respect for others is mostly damaging itself...

[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/china-russia-and-iran-to-launch-joint-naval-drill-on-friday/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/china-russia-and-iran-to-launch-joint-naval-drill-on-friday/

Wargame will take place in the northern Indian Ocean, the third such exercise by the three nations

Asia has most of the global population...Both Israel and Saudi Arabia see "times are changing" and going for a "new balance" in international relations...India is a major investor in Iran. Iran is Russia's link to the Indian Ocean, China's link to "the west"...

[url]https://thesaker.is/pakistan-iran-turkey-launch-1st-joint-railroad-for-exchanging-vital-goods/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/pakistan-iran-turkey-launch-1st-joint-railroad-for-exchanging-vital-goods/  Ignored by western-self centered media, politics the world outside "the west" is changing high speed. 

A link to this story in video [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bwscz62bCWs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bwscz62bCWs 

DJ A few remarks per country;

-Turkey, Erdogan pushing for both "Pan-Turkism" in central Asia. Some of Turkish Intel possibly involved in some role in the Kazahkstan failed regime-change operation. But also Erdogan trying to make Turkey the leading Islamic country-competing on that with Saudi Arabia...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Turkish_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat_attempt[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Turkish_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat_attempt The US did try to kill Erdogan, Russian special forces saved Erdogan...till july 15 Erdogan did support the western allies in Syria; IS did even have a slavemarket in Gaziantip [url]https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301554175_ISIS_Sex_Slave_Trade_Brokered_in_Gaziantep_Turkey[/url] or https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301554175_ISIS_Sex_Slave_Trade_Brokered_in_Gaziantep_Turkey  Turkish, European and US intel transporting lots of volunteers from Europe, US to IS...but also second hand US tracks-via the CIA-in IS hands [url]https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/15/us/texas-plumber-sues-car-dealer-after-his-truck-ends-up-on-syrias-front-lines.html[/url] or https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/15/us/texas-plumber-sues-car-dealer-after-his-truck-ends-up-on-syrias-front-lines.html 

Turkey was also a major "transporter" for Uyghurs from western China [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang  to IS in Syria and Iraq....The CIA, MI6 and some other western countries sending weapons in exchange for IS-oil...Russia bombed the oil-routes "moderate western backed terrorists used"....

When Erdogan/AK party became Turkish dominant factor Turkey had still some hope of joining the EU. Islamo-phobic racism and western stupidity closed that door...

-Iran did see its deal with the west broken by that west (trump...). [url]https://thesaker.is/vladimir-putin-held-talks-at-the-kremlin-with-president-of-the-islamic-republic-of-iran-sayyid-ebrahim-raisi/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/vladimir-putin-held-talks-at-the-kremlin-with-president-of-the-islamic-republic-of-iran-sayyid-ebrahim-raisi/  There are some ideas of building a canal linking the Caspian Sea with the Indian Ocean...it would provide Russia with a shipping route to that Indian Ocean...India is active in southern Iran oil-to avoid doing bussines with Pakistan...

Iran and Cuba working together in vaccines, medical care during this pandemic. 

-Pakistan was a strong US ally, major transport route for NATO agression in Afghanistan. Pakistan was a base for jihadi's at the Afghan border...with the US destabilizing the pro-Russian secular government resulting in the Soviet invasion of 1979..."to give the Soviet Union their own Vietnam"....trump did manage to destroy what was left of US-Pakistan relations...Pakistan secret service was a major factor in rebels in Afghanistan-at CIA request...to "limit first Russia, later on also Chinese, Iran influences"...

Pakistan has been in conflict with India since independence in 1947...China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor is seeing Chinese investments in (rail)roads between China and Pakistan Indian Ocean ports....Overtime China and Pakistan may have become close together in the Kashmir-conflict with India. 

DJ, Russian railways may be invited to build a railroad in Saudi Arabia. Saudi's now dumping the US$ in energy deals with China...getting often more on line with Russia (oil producers #2 and 3. US did become #1 via fracking...NOT improving relations with OPEC...). The taliban in Afghanistan has to deal with the Asian reality...if they stay to sectarian may lose Pakistan support...

-In this pandemic "the west" is making a mess of it....regime-changes from Brazil (CIA-bolsenaro,) to Ukraine neo-nazi's and western support for "moderate renamed IS terrorists" must have shocked most of the globe....

OF COURSE !!!!! China does try to gain more influence...by investments instead of military bases (like the US did...) but is that not how the world is ? If western companies/countries dominate other countries "no problem", China investing in Angola, Mozambique, Venezuela oil is "a problem"...

The way OUT of this pandemic does not come from a "western democrazy gone corrupt".....This pandemic further showing the total lack of any decency by "that west"....Creating US$, UK pounds, euro's out of thin air to "fight the pandemic by sending zillions to party sponsors" even further underlines the western moral bankruptcy....

BoJo&Co is a symptom, this pandemic is a "political disease"....accepting massive long CoViD numbers, masive number of deaths as a "new normal" is very abnormal....

-Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QGMCSCFoKA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QGMCSCFoKA Meat Loaf - Bat Out Of Hell (meat loaf singer died yesterday...)

End of part 3

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Bat Out of Hell singer Meat Loaf dies aged 74 with wife by his side | Daily Mail Online



US singer Meat Loaf, who was known for hits including Bat Out Of Hell, has died at the age of 74 after selling more than 100million albums worldwide and starring in 65 movies - with reports suggesting he contracted Covid-19.


Sources told TMZ that Meat Loaf was supposed to be attending a business dinner this week for a reality TV show he was involved with called 'I'd Do Anything for Love…But I Won't Do That', named after his song, but it was cancelled after he 'became seriously ill' with coronavirus. TMZ also claimed he had been 'outspoken about Covid, railing with folks in Australia recently about vaccine mandates'. It is not known whether the singer was vaccinated.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2022 at 8:06pm

Tabitha111, "Bat out of hell" in many ways was new(s)......the music never dies...

Numbers; 








BA.2 VUI in the UK! I hope the  will follow soon. By the way, I just counted 395 BA.2 for the UK, many more than the 54 mentioned in this article. It seems to be growing fast in the UK as well, especially in England.


DJ [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-scientist-warns-that-new-omicron-sublineage-ba-2-will-cause-new-surge-and-reinfections-globally-as-previous-omicron-infection-may-offer-no-pr[url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-scientist-warns-that-new-omicron-sublineage-ba-2-will-cause-new-surge-and-reinfections-globally-as-previous-omicron-infection-may-offer-no-pr 

All indications are BA.2 Omicron-2, but it could get another name, is increasing on a global level and replacing the now dominant in most places BA.1.

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ;

A top 10 for highest number of new cases; worldwide 3,647,178 +9%, deaths 9,055 +9% numbers at record level for cases.

1-USA  779,036 new cases -12%, deaths at 3,142 +7%

2-France 400,851 new cases +18%, deaths 233 +7%

3-India 335,458 new cases +38%, deaths 489 +35%

4-Italy 179,106 new cases -3%, deaths 373 +23%

5-Brazil 168,820 new cases +74%, deaths 396 +86%

6-Spain 141,095 new cases -5%, deaths 142 +19%

7-Germany 138,634 new cases +52%, deaths 175 -30%

8-Argentina 118,171 new cases -4%, deaths 160 +126%

9-UK 95,787 new cases -27%, deaths 288 +1%

10-Turkey 72,555 new cases -4%, deaths 181 +9%

The idea is cases go up, peak, then go down....but in France cases keep going up...UK cases may start increasing again from a very high level...

In South Africa cases now -36%, deaths -4% maybe the peak for BA.1 deaths is 6 weeks after testing positive ? NOT within the 4 weeks as seen in most earlier variants ? And indications BA.2 is also increasing there...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/antarctica/antarctica-covid-outbreak-at-an-argentinian-research-station/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/antarctica/antarctica-covid-outbreak-at-an-argentinian-research-station/ Antarctica not yet included in the list. 

There has been a Covid outbreak at an Argentine research base in Antarctica. This is at least the third Covid outbreak in Antarctica that we are aware of.

Twenty-four of the 43 scientists and military personnel resident at Argentina’s La Esperanza base have been infected, Patricia Ortuzar of the government’s National Directorate of the Antarctic told AFP news agency.

Nine of the 24, who have no symptoms, were evacuated to capital Buenos Aires by helicopter as a precaution.

TRTWorld.com report

DJ Before people go to remote places like an Antarctica base, or an oilrig, other remote places they will get isolated and tested because it may be hard to get them back...Like the story from China of a person returning from abroad testing positive on day 21 from his quarantine these stories indicate how hard it is to find cases via testing...

BA.1 is seen as "milder" compared to the previous Delta dominant subvariants...but the "mild claims" are based on very limited data. You have to look per country on what bases what variants spread. NL was very late in its boosters...we may now be at a maximum for boosterprotection so BA.1 may look mild-part of the story is maximum booster protection, also we only may be able to get a more realistic view over a month...

South Africa was believed to have a still high level of immunity because the Delta-wave was not over that long...could have given "natural immunity" against BA.1. BA.2 may NOT be stopped by that kind of immunity...vaccines/boosters at best may limit the damage...

In Germany cases - like in many other countries-at record level and deaths also high for German norms [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/ 

BA.1 is NOT just a cold or a flu....it is still CoViD ! Most likely will show itself to be worse then Alpha...! Cases exploding but then very slow in numbers of people ending up in hospital or dying...part of the info on that also (still) delayed by christmas/new year...









Sweden (Vastragotaland had many BA.2 samples between the 20th and the 23th of December, but hasn't uploaded any samples to  since the 26th Person shrugging), Zwitserland, Thailand, United Kingdom (clear growth for England, which sequences a LOT, but many samples without an exact data).


Josette Schoenmakers one of the scientists warning and trying to get the global data on BA.2. [url]https://fortune.com/2022/01/21/what-is-stealth-omicron-new-covid-variant-substrain-denmark/[/url] or https://fortune.com/2022/01/21/what-is-stealth-omicron-new-covid-variant-substrain-denmark/BA.2 has gone from accounting for 20% of Denmark’s COVID-19 infections to making up 45%. Over that same period, Denmark's COVID infections have shot to record highs. Denmark is recording over 30,000 new cases per day this week, 10 times more cases than peaks in previous waves.

Among some other countries Denmark may give indications on how BA.2 infection looks like...Lots of other countries see BA.2 numbers following the DK pattern...Philippines, India may have allready seen a BA.2 explosion [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/philippines/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/philippines/ may not give enough info yet...

[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=PHL[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=PHL BA.2 did get dominant over BA.1 in the Philippines. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Sublineages_and_stealth_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Sublineages_and_stealth_variant ; By early January 2022, it appears to have become dominant in at least parts of India (also making up almost 80 percent in Kolkata[46]) and the Philippines, had become frequent in South Africa and Scandinavia, and was showing signs of growth in Germany and the United Kingdom.[47][48][49] In the first week (3–9 January) of 2022, BA.2 had increased to 28 percent of all sequenced cases in Denmark compared to 68 percent BA.1,[50] and by the second week (10–16 January), BA.2 comprised 45 percent.[51] As of 21 January, Danish healthcare authorities had not seen differences between BA.1 and BA.2 in hospitalizations or severity, and early data from India points in the same direction.[40][52]

 In Norway, a few people infected with BA.2 had been infected with BA.1 earlier, but this has not been observed in Denmark.[52] Further study is being conduced by the Danish Statens Serum Institut and it is also being investigated by the UK Health Security Agency.[51][53] As of 17 January 2022, BA.2 had been detected in at least 40 countries and in all continents except Antarctica.

DJ [url]https://www.thelocal.dk/20220121/danish-government-says-it-will-scale-down-covid-19-rapid-test-centres/[/url] or https://www.thelocal.dk/20220121/danish-government-says-it-will-scale-down-covid-19-rapid-test-centres/ so far in general the view choosen is "Omicron is milder" , restrictions can be lifted, less testing etc. That view ignores the last two years of this pandemic...herd-immunity, set as a goal, is unrealistic...

"You can not live with restrictions forever" may be correct but returning to the "old normal" that did bring us this pandemic is foolish..."living with the virus" means realizing the risks...Decreasing testing when testing/reporting capacity at present is unable to deal with the high numbers, sequencing may be missing a lot of developments may be "unwise"....

[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/two-months-since-omicron-emerged-where-does-israel-stand-qa-with-an-expert/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/two-months-since-omicron-emerged-where-does-israel-stand-qa-with-an-expert/ ; So far those infection numbers aren’t translating into huge numbers of seriously ill patients — thankfully, Omicron is also far milder, in general, than previous strains — but doctors say it’s premature to relax.

DJ, We simply do not have enough information...Letting "mild variants run free" will bring lots of mutations, new variants, recombinations, coinfections...Long CoViD only shows later on...again BA.1, BA.2 Omicron is NOT a cold !!!








Wekelijkse update uit de Nationale Kiemsurveillance. Ter aanvulling: BA.2:  0,06% in week 51; 0,23% in week 52; 0,66% in week 1. Net zoals in VK, DK begint zich een stijging af te tekenen.

NL numbers on BA.2, weekly update from national early surveillance, extra BA.2 week 51 0,06% week 52 0,23% of samples sequenced, week 1 0,66%. Just like in UK, DK showing signs of an increase. 

DJ- week 2 then 1,32%, week 3 2,64%, week 4 5,3% week 5 10,6% week 6 21,2% week 7 42,5% week 8 85% of NL cases BA.2 ? Most of the spread will have to be in those thinking they are safe because of earlier BA.1 infection(s) and/or vaccines/boosters (only a small% will not have had an earlier infection or vaccination...). 

End of part 1 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2022 at 8:44pm

Josh, 


You mean to tell us that there is another omicron wave coming ?  

On top of it, there is a war coming too.  You might be facing lots of Ukranian refugees . 

I feel sorry for anyone in eastern or central europe.   My niece is in germany and her boyfriend is in munich.  I think she needs to bring him over here for a spell.  Going to be a hard winter. 

ME163 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2022 at 10:21pm

ME163, 

I think this pandemic is far from over. BA.2 Omicron is increasing...but we did see other, earlier variants increasing and being stopped by yet other variants outcompeting them.  For now BA.2 is being detected, in view, and going exponential...also in people that did get BA.1, boosters...still vaccines seem to offer a lot of protection. 

Looking at statistics however BA.2 increasing in France can not explain all of the high numbers...[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FRA&dark=true[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FRA&dark=true BA.2 is not even in these French numbers, B.1.640.1 at 1% for last 60 days...Delta subvariants may still stick around...(AY.43)...it looks like a "mega-mix"... 

[url]https://twitter.com/flodebarre[/url] or https://twitter.com/flodebarre trying to "make sense of France"...








The figure is maybe even more striking when cases suspected to be Delta and Omicron are plotted separately (as  did initially)

DJ See  [url]https://twitter.com/flodebarre/status/1484627537422864384/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/flodebarre/status/1484627537422864384/photo/1 

So we may see BA.2 becoming the next wave...but so far this pandemic did bring us that many surprises....Maybe over a month the major worry could be a bad flu-season...I did not see any new news on H3N2 coinfections with CoViD, not any further news on "Deltacron" as a coinfection, but it may even become a new variant on its own...in fact I think it is quite likely to get "mixed, recombine"...since Delta in many places is NOT fully replaced yet by Omicron. 

One of the outcomes of governments simply unable to have a plan is people go "in hiding" wich can bring people with older variants getting infected with new variants ...the virus may not be detected by upper respitory testing still could be in a host...maybe even for a longer time without major symptoms...

Of course [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Variants_under_monitoring_(WHO)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Variants_under_monitoring_(WHO) there are lots of other variants that did not show up in labs, sequences...

I think we drop restrictions much to fast without a good plan...while we know there is a dangerous virus spreading high speed-even on a longer term do not know the risks...

ME163-the other part of your remark "war coming", I hope not....[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Comprehensive_Economic_Partnership[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Comprehensive_Economic_Partnership among some others EU-China trade deals etc, investments-also from western countries-in rail infrastructure for EurAsian trade (it is not only Nordstream 1 and 2 bringing Russian gas to Germany-A German initiative by the way !) 

Europe NEEDS Russian energy, trade with China...even the US economy needs Russian oil and gas on a global market or face energy prices going to unseen levels destroying what is left of a western economy...Russia major energy provider, China #1 energy consumer...also buying oil& gas from countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, Iran...India also buying oil/gas from Iran...

US/EU sanctions on pushing Russia out of SWIFT, stop bying Russian energy is destroying the US/EU...US LNG can simply NOT replace what Russia is producing...OPEC may shift towards the fast growing Asian market...

It is "the west" that is getting isolated...China becoming a "rich country" based on World Bank statistics...economic growth for China around 8% for 2021...while the west is moving towards hyperinflation and the US$ link to global energy market is as good as history...even Saudi Arabia is doing energy-deals in lots of currencies...

NATO has lost the war before it even did begin....Russia-Iran-China now global power #1...NATO moving east now has NATO forces with long logistic lines close to Russia, China, Iran "home bases"...Further (US) escalation most likely may blow up NATO...not Russia....I would not be surprised if Turkey did decide to "move over" to another alliance...maybe one the started on their own...going for Turkish interests...

So, I think there is a very major global crisis but Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) will be avoided, yet NATO/US can not win in any other way (look at Afghanistan, Iraq...) China wants trade not war...it will get trade....

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/us-russian-talks-are-a-sign-of-progress.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/us-russian-talks-are-a-sign-of-progress.html DJ-I am also NOT an expert on "wars" but I think NATO knows the costs of any major conflict are simply that extreme...

-Some news on vaccines;

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-french-study-warns-that-covid-19-mrna-vaccines-can-cause-multisystemic-hyper-inflammatory-syndrome-in-children-aged-12-17[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-french-study-warns-that-covid-19-mrna-vaccines-can-cause-multisystemic-hyper-inflammatory-syndrome-in-children-aged-12-17 

and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/science-magazine-covid-vaccines-may-cause-long-covid-like-symptoms/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/science-magazine-covid-vaccines-may-cause-long-covid-like-symptoms/ 

DJ-Vaccines are a medical intervention. At the start of a crisis you may have to fall back to taking some risks...but there were other strategies that showed to be very succesfull in the summer of 2020...NPI, lockdowns-NOT vaccines allmost ended the pandemic at that time...

Vaccines were used NOT for public health or "ending this pandemic" but for "saving the economy" reopening with vaccinated people flying around the globe spreading Delta and Omicron in 2021....

Again...STOP THE SPREAD ! If you do not have a good plan vaccines are a tool misused...since they are not part of a realistic strategy...Vaccination strategies did become anti-science based, wishfull thinking/hopium....and it does NOT work !!!

We are now again seeing "Media, Experts, Politics" claiming "the pandemic is over" simply NOT based on any science at all ! The WHO keeps warning Omicron is NOT mild, it is NOT a cold or flu....yet a lot of countries think they can go for "it is endemic and be treated  as a flu" , boosters will save us...

Global insanity even in a lot of "science".....

In November 2021, in the New England Journal of Medicine, William Murphy, an immunologist at the University of California, Davis proposed that an autoimmune mechanism triggered by the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein might explain both Long Covid symptoms and some rare vaccine side effects.

Evidence from animal studies supports the idea that antibodies targeting the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein might cause collateral damage, notes Harald Prüss, a neurologist at the German Center for Neurodegenerative Diseases (DZNE) and the Charité University Hospital in Berlin. In 2020, while hunting for antibody therapies for COVID-19, he and his colleagues discovered that of 18 antibodies they identified with potent effects against SARS-CoV-2, four also targeted healthy tissues in mice—a sign they could trigger autoimmune problems.

Science Magazine article

New England Journal of Medicine article:A Possible Role for Anti-idiotype Antibodies in SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Vaccination

Harald Prüss: Do cross-reactive antibodies cause neuropathology in COVID-19?

Ignoring science because it does not fit in ideology is a "highway to hell"...

Music ;-) (okay rock...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l482T0yNkeo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l482T0yNkeo 

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, part 3...[url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 (re)tweets;

Today is even worse than yesterday! FireWeekly hospital admissions in England for 6-17 years old hit a new sad record: Right pointing backhand index352 hospitalized in the last 7 daysDouble exclamation mark Police cars revolving lightThe worst figure from the beginning of the pandemicDouble exclamation mark


Image

"mild"?  Not for (unvaccinated) children...also boosters willl only offer limited protection for vulnerables...at the end that is all of us...

On this twitter also ;








Why are we at War?

DJ; joking on BoJo starting a war with Russia but since the missiles were made by a party-sponsor they ended exploding in western Europe..so the UK decided to be in war with the EU....

"Leaders" showing themselves to be empty headed populistic sociopaths are the main reason we are in this pandemic. Somehow those "leaders" think they are not at any major risk, somehow excluded...Starting a war as distraction for total failure is not new...but Media-Experts-Politics never stop going for that sort of crazy....








Interesting from the latest SPI-M consensus statement: "Peaks of infections have often been asymmetric in nature during COVID-19 with many more than half of infections happening during the population decline stage and so a long tail may still need managing, even after the peak."


When cases did peak it is not over...

DJ [url]https://globalnews.ca/news/8527928/covid-positive-negative-patients-shared-hospital-rooms-fraser-health/[/url] or https://globalnews.ca/news/8527928/covid-positive-negative-patients-shared-hospital-rooms-fraser-health/  mixing patients testing positive for CoViD with those testing negative "may increase herd immunity" ?  Crazy.....!

I was looking for some twitter on people in their 20's dying from hearthproblems, CVA etc. after CoViD infection...can not find it yet...but again CoViD is NOT a joke, the virus does often do a lot of damage that may show up much later...

What do I (DJ) as a non-expert think may be a wise strategy ?

-Go for a testing/sequencing strategy...promote at home testing in combination with good advice.

-But also have good sequencing, around the globe, so you have a better view on what is happening...

-Maybe also see what tests do what jobs...stool/anal testing may give better indications on if the virus still is in the body...nasal/throat swabs (only) test upper respitory...

Pandemics is allways about tens of millions of cases...most rich countries are able to deal with that kind of numbers-if they make it a priority. Sequencing capacity and sharing the findings on a global level may give info on what (sub)variants is in/de-creasing where and on what background...

-Long term strategy on healthissues...what do statistics indicate ? Do hearth/blood diseases increase in what groups when ? Can we monitor those groups better, early intervention limit damage ? 

-Reorganize society to make it more pandemic-proof. Working/study from home should be a legal right, and rebalancing what needs to be done at a workplace and what can be done at home may limit contacts...

-Get realistic !!!!! This pandemic is far from over, other pandemics do have an increased chance (climate change related)  so there is NO room for mass-events...Still may leave some room for smaller events...limiting contacts=stopping spread..

-Limit global airtravel to 5-10% of prepandemic...variants travel for free...STOP IT !!!

-"We" are the global priority...us humans..life...NOT profit, power...get priorities in the right order..

-Educate all ! People need wisdom to make the right choices...

DJ-Just some-utopian-ideas to get out of this dystopia...selfdestruction modus...Re-balance ...It may be very hard to fix stupid but we have to keep trying it or face the consequences...

End of part 3

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ, A look at the international situation to start with; [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/bulletin-moscow-declares-it-will-not-allow-its-citizens-in-donbas-to-be-killed-by-lethal-weapons-given-to-ukraine-by-nato[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/bulletin-moscow-declares-it-will-not-allow-its-citizens-in-donbas-to-be-killed-by-lethal-weapons-given-to-ukraine-by-nato  and [url]https://www.rt.com/russia/546847-former-us-servicemen-ukraine-frontline/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/russia/546847-former-us-servicemen-ukraine-frontline/ 

Putin linking it to [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Responsibility_to_protect[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Responsibility_to_protect 

Russia would have to protect the many Russian/Russian speaking people in Ukraine against extreme right wing gangs getting armed by NATO. 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/afghanistan-like-evac-for-ukraine-too[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/afghanistan-like-evac-for-ukraine-too DJ-Hal Turner is not neutral (he is a trump-fan I am not...) But western interventions-with all kind of excuses-in many countries have been a disaster...

Maybe BoJo&Co may send some UK military to Ukraine, however [url]https://www.rt.com/russia/546858-german-admiral-resigns-comments-crimea/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/russia/546858-german-admiral-resigns-comments-crimea/ the US led insanity on a global scale does not have much support outside some western political fools....

A possible scenario for Ukraine could be the US "giving Turkey" more room to gain influence...weak point however is Turkey NEEDS Russian energy, tourists from Russia, China...Iran against the Kurds...The Turkish economy is close to bankrupt. The 4 million Syrian refugees did become part of a political campain. 

One (Erdogan) plan was to occupy northern Syria and put the Syrian refugees there...A problem is US there still supporting the Kurds...The Turkish Army would have to deal with US/CIA-Saudi backed IS, Kurdish fighters, Syrian Arab Army (SAA) AND the Russians there - also Iran does not think it such a military plan would work...

Erdogan and Assad do not like eachother...but may have to deal with eachother under Iran, Russian, Chinese pressure. About ALL of the parties want US out of the area...both Syria and Iraq...I do expect "more pressure" (=attacks on US troops still in the area against the will of both Syria AND Iraq...).

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/shot-down-u-s-military-cargo-plane-disappears-from-flight-tracking-after-leaving-ukraine-and-violating-russia-air-space[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/shot-down-u-s-military-cargo-plane-disappears-from-flight-tracking-after-leaving-ukraine-and-violating-russia-air-space I did not yet see other sources making these claims-but may be correct...

-The US and UK were behind the hijacking of protests in Kazahkstan. Some claims go to 20,000 men being recruited both from central Asia and among jihadi's-for-rent in Syria, Libya (airlifted by the US). These men had to transfer protests into an uprising...A cargo plane transporting 200,000 pounds of ammunition to Kiev then "going east" and "getting of radar" in western Kazahkstan may be an indication "the US is supporting rebels in Kazahkstan by transporting rebels into Kazahkstan"....Leader of the "Kazahk regime change operation", yet another "western created government in exile" is in Kiev...

-A SU-57 Russian stealth fighter above Kiev-without earlier detection above Ukraine airspace-is another show of power...

-[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/china-colonel-on-tv-will-sink-us-aircraft-carriers-escalate-immediately-to-nuclear-war-with-usa[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/china-colonel-on-tv-will-sink-us-aircraft-carriers-escalate-immediately-to-nuclear-war-with-usa DJ-Not only Russia-Iran-China are totally fed up with political foreign policy madness from "the West"...also a lot of military/intel in that West is getting fed up with that West supporting neo nazi's in Ukraine, a fascist in Brazil, IS in most of Asia and Africa, "moderate rebels" showing up in every oil field allmost that is not under Western control....

A foreign policy-from the US-putting sanctions on allmost all other countries; because those countries do buy weapons, energy from Russia - not follow DC orders is damaging the US.

How many 'governments in exile" does that "West" want to create; we now have a extreme right wing type for Venezuela, some types for Belarus, Kazahkstan, somehow the "West" did see IS as a smaller problem in Syria then they consider former London eyedoctor Assad...

Pushing US LNG-export by creating a global (energy) crisis to make US-LNG competative is not a long lasting policy...

Biden is failing to repair trump did in his 4 years of "rule"...from the Iran deal to all kind of weapon treaties with Russia and the US accepting Israels annexing of the West Bank-infuriating Jordan, pushing Gulf States away from the US...In my opinion the US has become the major global problem...

This month we may see close to a 100 million new positive CoViD-test cases...still the "dominant western story"seems to be "no problem"...

We were around 290 million cases at january 1-we will get over 350 million cases today...january 23..."Omicron is mild" is the non-sense now dominant in many Media-Expert-Politics elites....with the WHO repeating again and again it is NOT mild...it may be "milder then some Delta variants" , still worse then Alpha...vaccines may offer some protection so "it looks mild"....

Also BA.2 Omicron is growing fast-even infecting people recently infected by BA.1...Warnings on co-infections with Delta-also some sub-variants still increasing..."Deltacron" not yet a variant but recombinations (lots of them) most likely a matter of time...

French numbers keep going up-indicating possibly some other variants (or ADE ?) at play...[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/france-reports-400,851-new-covid-19-cases-and-233-deaths-in-last-24-hours-what-s-really-at-play-omicron-ba-1,-ba-2,-b-1-640-or-b-1-640-2[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/france-reports-400,851-new-covid-19-cases-and-233-deaths-in-last-24-hours-what-s-really-at-play-omicron-ba-1,-ba-2,-b-1-640-or-b-1-640-2 ...DJ BA.2 is replacing BA.1 in many places-we still see some peak of BA.1-cases going down-may see yet another BA.2 peak in the coming weeks...France has statistics that are different from other countries...If claims are correct a lot of people now getting ill is in the vaccinated group "there may be a serious problem"...

Of course also "mild Omicron" is pushing up Long-CoViD numbers....ignored by most countries...

We need a global response to this pandemic but see this pandemic is not even a priority....International relations at a level maybe unseen since World War Two...

I think [url]https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/[/url] or https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/ not changing the time is unrealistic optimistic...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_glaciers_in_the_Antarctic[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_glaciers_in_the_Antarctic warm seawater is eroding Antarctic glaciers. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thwaites_Glacier[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thwaites_Glacier

Thwaites Glacier is closely watched for its potential to raise sea levels.[6] Along with the Pine Island Glacier, it has been described as part of the "weak underbelly" of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, due to its apparent vulnerability to significant retreat. This hypothesis is based on both theoretical studies of the stability of marine ice sheets and observations of large changes on these two glaciers. In recent years, the flow of both of these glaciers has accelerated, their surfaces have lowered, and their grounding lines have retreated.

The Thwaites Ice Shelf, a floating ice shelf which braces and restrains the eastern portion of Thwaites Glacier, is likely to collapse within a decade from 2021, leading to increased outflow and contribution to sea-level rise.[7][8][9] For this reason, Thwaites Glacier and its ice shelf have been proposed as sites for climate engineering interventions to stabilize and preserve its ice.

is seeing the "ice dam" cracking ; [url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2348.msg308692.html#msg308692[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2348.msg308692.html#msg308692Richard Alley made that point in a recent Jeff Goodell Rolling Stone article about West Antarctic ice sheet dynamics:
"No human has ever witnessed the rapid collapse of a glacier in Antarctica like Thwaites; ergo, it can’t happen. Alley himself thinks about it simply in terms of risk. “Maybe we’ll get lucky and the ice cliffs won’t disintegrate in Antarctica quite as fast as we predict,” he says. “But if you are even a little bit worried that scientists might have made mistakes in their calculations about what is going on in Antarctica, then maybe we should pay attention to this.” He compares Thwaites and other glaciers in West Antarctica with drunk drivers. “They are out there, they are scary, and they don’t behave as you expect them to,” Alley says. “That’s why it’s a good idea to have a seatbelt in your cars.” "
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/antarctica-thwaites-glacier-how-fast-will-it-melt-1168437/

     What used to be the realm of science fiction is now squarely within the confidence intervals of science fact.  Not without uncertainty, but these are not wild hypotheses, just simple extensions of well-established trends.  And those trends do not look good for the future of ASI.  As for human civilization based upon the climate as it was, well human ingenuity and adaptability is indeed impressive.  I wish it could be focused on advancing forward with less effort needed to correct for the stupid malfeasance of the previous (our) generation.  Our parents' generation was not aware of the climate sensitivity, and we can't blame the next generation for the mess we are leaving them.  So it falls to us as the responsible generation.

DJ "Faster then expected" is "normal" in climate collapse....both this pandemic and "the climate problem" should be global top-priorities...and they are not, greed and petro-US-$ is....

Only thing "we" as humans can do is mention it...Underline present human actions may end "us" within years-not decades....Also underline that "hopium" may not help, but giving up hope is another thing...there are so many actions that can make some difference...

End of a sunday-part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2022 at 1:08am

part 2, 

-Maybe a look at some numbers...we were at 290 million cases january 1-now-january 23-will go over 350 million positive tests worldwide.... Today we start with 5,610,000+ deaths...we were at 5,456 million deaths at the beginning of the year...so an increase of reported CoViD deaths worldwide of allmost 155,000 in just over 3 weeks...."mild & endemic".....([url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table as allways). The 7-day moving average for CoViD deaths is moving up. January 3 just over 6,000 per day now at allmost 7,750 per day...

At the start of the year BA.1 was increasing, now BA.1 may have peaked in many places but-among others-BA.2 Omicron sub-variant (but may be renamed when it gets a Variant Of Concern...DJ Most likely before february 1...). Some Delta variants also increasing...[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues  (among others). 

Very likely both testing and sequencing capacity no longer able to deal with the extreme numbers...most cases never reported, at-home testing the new normal...

Governments in many countries now going for denialism, "live with 5,000 to 10,000 deaths per day" as far as being reported still. If you do not test the 2 to 4 million-at least CoViD deaths-per year- simply become part of an "increase in excess deaths"...."WE" (not THEY !) "have to live with"....

- I can use sundays-little "news" for more retrospection. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002%E2%80%932004_SARS_outbreak[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002%E2%80%932004_SARS_outbreak

The 2002–2004 outbreak of SARS, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV or SARS-CoV-1), infected over 8,000 people from 29 different countries and territories, and resulted in at least 774 deaths worldwide.[1]

The outbreak was first identified in FoshanGuangdongChina, in November 2002.[2] The World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of the outbreak in February 2003, and issued a global alert in March 2003. Initially, the cause of the outbreak was unknown, and some media outlets reported that an influenza virus was a potential culprit.[3] The major part of the outbreak lasted about 8 months, and the World Health Organization declared SARS contained on 5 July 2003. However, several SARS cases were reported until May 2004.[4]

DJ Why SARS-1 did NOT become a pandemic ? I do not have the knowledge to provide much of an answer but [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002%E2%80%932004_SARS_outbreak#Timeline[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002%E2%80%932004_SARS_outbreak#Timeline may offer some answers...One could compare it with [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic#History[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic#History .

Was SARS-1 less contagious ? Was are less (air)travel ? Many factors playing some role. But one can look at cases, actions, timing...

First SARS-1 cases november 16-2002 in Guangdong-China-not far from Hong Kong ( part of China since 1997)

First SARS-cases showed up in Wuhan ; The outbreak was discovered in Wuhan in November 2019. It is possible that human-to-human transmission was happening before the discovery.[32][33] Based on a retrospective analysis starting from December 2019, the number of cases in Hubei gradually increased, reaching 60 by 20 December and at least 266 by 31 December

DJ So both in China but locations a 4 hrs internal flight away...

SARS-1 february 2003 Hong Kong superspreader walks into a hospital infecting at least 23 other hotel guests...

SARS-2, 2019 ; On 30 December 2019, a test report from CapitalBio Medlab addressed to Wuhan Central Hospital reported an erroneous positive result for SARS, causing doctors there to alert authorities. Eight of those doctors, including Li Wenliang (who was also punished on 3 January),[177] were later admonished by the police for spreading false rumours; and Ai Fen was reprimanded.[178] That evening, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission (WMHC) issued a notice about "the treatment of pneumonia of unknown cause".[179] The next day, WMHC made the announcement public, confirming 27 cases[180][181][182]—enough to trigger an investigation.

DJ Not recognizing the "pneumonia of unknown case" at least did cost time. 

In 2003 hotel guest did spread the virus to a.o. Vietnam, Canada, Taiwan...spread inside the families february, march 2003. On 21 February, Liu and his wife checked into room 911 on the ninth floor of the Metropole Hotel. and 

On 12 March, WHO issued a global alert about a new infectious disease of unknown origin in both Vietnam and Hong Kong. On 15 March, WHO issued a heightened global health alert about a mysterious pneumonia with a case definition of SARS after cases in Singapore and Canada were also identified. The alert included a rare emergency travel advisory to international travelers, healthcare professionals, and health authorities. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) issued a travel advisory stating that persons considering travel to the affected areas in Asia (Hong Kong, Singapore, Vietnam, and China) should not go.[citation needed]

On 17 March, an international network of 11 laboratories was established to determine the cause of SARS and develop potential treatments. The CDC held its first briefing on SARS and said that 14 suspected SARS cases were being investigated in the US. On 20 March, WHO reported that several hospitals in Vietnam and Hong Kong were operating with half the usual staff because many workers stayed home out of fear of getting infected. WHO raised the concern that substandard care of the infected patients might contribute to the spread of the disease

So it did take from february 21 to march 12 (19 days) for the WHO sending out a global alert in 2003...

In 2020 On 11 January, WHO was notified by the Chinese National Health Commission that the outbreak was associated with exposures in the market, and that China had identified a new type of coronavirus, which it isolated on 7 January.

So China did know of "a major problem" in december 2019 while; Based on a retrospective analysis starting from December 2019, the number of cases in Hubei gradually increased, reaching 60 by 20 December and at least 266 by 31 December.[173]

The outbreak by that time in China must have involved hundreds of cases...

Initially, the number of cases doubled approximately every seven and a half days.[187] In early and mid-January, the virus spread to other Chinese provinces, helped by the Chinese New Year migration. Wuhan was a transport hub and major rail interchange.[188] On 10 January, the virus' genome was shared through GISAID.[189] A retrospective study published in March found that 6,174 people had reported symptoms by 20 January.[190] A 24 January report indicated human transmission, recommended personal protective equipment for health workers, and advocated testing, given the outbreak's "pandemic potential".[42][191] On 31 January the first published modelling study warned of inevitable "independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally" and called for "large-scale public health interventions."[192]

On 30 January 2020, 7,818 infections had been confirmed, leading WHO to declare the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).[193][194] On 11 March, WHO elevated it to a pandemic

Mmmmmm In 2003 limited global spread did see the WHO sending global alarms within 19 days...In 2020 it did take from january 11-China informing the WHO to january 30-"global public health emergency"...also 19 days...China did not recognize the size of the problem in time ? 

Did China have earlier similar outbreaks that turned out to be "limited enough" for China to deal with it itself ? 

There was the 2012 Yunnan outbreak in miners [url]https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.581569/full[/url] or https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.581569/full ;It was found that RaTG13/CoV4991 was collected from Tongguan mineshaft in Mojiang, Yunnan, China, in 2013. Surprisingly, the same mineshaft was also associated with a severe pneumonia-like illness in miners in 2012 killing three of the six miners. A Master's thesis (in the Chinese language) was found on the cnki.net website which described in detail the severe illness in miners. The thesis concluded that a SARS-like CoV originating from Chinese horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus) was the predicted causative agent

DJ See also [url]https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.581569/full#h5[/url] or https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.581569/full#h5 ; Why were the severe pneumonia cases in 2012 not mentioned in any of the WIV publications before 2020? Were any SARS-like CoV isolated from the bat fecal samples collected in 2012–13? Why were the Mojiang miners pneumonia cases in 2012 not reported to any public health agency like the WHO? Why did programs like PREDICT not mention the lethal pneumonia cases as a mini-outbreak? 

China may have seen it as an internal matter ? Maybe these kind of outbreaks did happen more often and remained "limited"...the virus not that contagious (Like MERS is not that easy to catch...). 

One conclusion could be, maybe China underestimated the risks for to long in december 2019, early january 2020 ? 

In 2003 On 1 April, the U.S. government called back non-essential personnel in their consulate office in Hong Kong and Guangzhou. The US government also advised US citizens not to travel to the region.

So march 12 and 15 -in 2003-WHO sending out alarms sees US advising people not to go to the region april 1 in 2003...January 30, 2020 WHO issued a public health emergency of international concern...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_China[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_China Wuhan lockdown started january 23 -2020...By that time the world could know there was a major problem....[url]https://www.nporadio1.nl/nieuws/buitenland/c85ede2d-b27d-42d5-89bf-2fcb5e5fa70e/viroloog-marion-koopmans-ik-zou-zo-het-vliegtuig-naar-china-pakken[/url] or https://www.nporadio1.nl/nieuws/buitenland/c85ede2d-b27d-42d5-89bf-2fcb5e5fa70e/viroloog-marion-koopmans-ik-zou-zo-het-vliegtuig-naar-china-pakken Marion Koopmans virologist, WHO advisor january 31 2020 "I would take a plane to China" ...it is contained...while Italy reported it first cases...

So it looks like not only China did underestimate the risks...also the WHO did not see a major problem in time...

The timeline at wikipedia does not mention when what country stopped (direct) flights to Wuhan or China...Maybe in part because -as far as I know- a.o. flights from Wuhan to Thailand ...never stopped....so indirect spread did go on...

The Wuhan lockdown january 23 - 2020 made the news worldwide...but "it was contained" , limited risks....On 11 March, WHO elevated it to a pandemic.[195][196]

But by that time SARS-2/CoViD 19 was allready out of control and calling it a pandemic was just to late...

End of part 2...There may be lots of comparing studies on why 2003-SARS 1 did NOT become a major global problem and why 2020 did see SARS 2 totally get out of control...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2022 at 9:26pm

ViQueen24, I think comparing SARS-1 and SARS-2 is a very complex matter. 

What role did the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Military_World_Games[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Military_World_Games  commonly known as Wuhan 2019, was held from October 18–27, 2019 in WuhanHubeiChina.[2][3]

play in early spread ? 

Was the more severe cases a second wave ? Before that maybe a somewhat milder wave maybe going around the globe as a form of "different cold" (remarked at the time...a cough for weeks I remember...)? Would that explain earlier samples of SARS-1 (a.o. in frozen sewage, blood) in Europe ? Did timing matter ? 

Did (western) Christmas/New Year play a role in it all ? Maybe some Chinese went to China, western tourists maybe also some factor. The [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_New_Year[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_New_Year The first day of Chinese New Year begins on the new moon that appears between 21 January and 20 February. clearly was a major factor. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chunyun[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chunyun ; The travel season in China usually begins 15 days before New Year's Day and lasts for around 40 days. In 2016 it was predicted that there would be 2.9 billion passenger journeys during that year's Chunyun season.[1] It has been called the largest annual human migration in the world.[2][3] Rail transport experiences the biggest challenge during the period, and several problems have emerged. This phenomenon is also seen in parts of Asia such as JapanVietnam and South Korea.

A major point in the early-2019-stages was who needed to push what alarmbuttons. In 2003 Hong Kong-in part English speaking city-state didsend out alarmsignals with still limited cases related to a hotel-outbreak. Hong Kong is very international...Wuhan much less...

If "there is a fire you can control with a bucket of water you do not evacuate the building"-maybe at local level not the correct alarm buttons were pushed. I think it may be some factor...

Another major factor is that Chinese-Manderin ([url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_Chinese[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_Chinese I do not know if inside China there may be that much language/culture differences that a message did get the"wrong level of warning") may be one other factor. Maybe even most western Intel missed the urgency in the early stages...

I do remember some people on this forum did send warnings in a very early stage. I was expecting maybe something like the 2003 limited spread in the early phase....but at the time of the Wuhan-lockdown, now just over 2 years ago-it was clear to me we had a very major problem...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_China[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_China .

Again...looking back-it is shocking to see for how long the WHO did NOT send global health alerts etc. alarming the world...How international air travel NEVER fully stopped during this pandemic. The number of passengers went down....

Besides the WHO countries had their own responsibilities....translating into byuing up shares to save airlines from bankruptcy...

One major difference with 2003 however is that SARS-1 most could be related to a superspreader in a Hong Kong Hotel...contact tracing did find other infected cases in time. Maybe it was less contagious as well ? 

In december 2019 SARS-2 did get widespread-possibly much further then authorities noticed ? How much asymptomatic spread was there ? 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_government_response_to_COVID-19[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_government_response_to_COVID-19On 23 January 2020, the Chinese government banned travel to and from Wuhan, enforced strict quarantines in affected regions and initiated a national response.[1] The epidemic in Hubei province peaked on 4 February 2020.[1] Large temporary hospitals were built in Wuhan to isolate patients with mild-to-moderate symptoms, with the first opening on 5 February 2020.[3] The epidemic was heavily concentrated within Hubei province and Wuhan. Through 22 March 2020, over 80% of the recorded cases in China were in Hubei province, with over 60% of cases nationwide occurring in Wuhan alone.[4]

DJ Still it did spread around the globe....[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Italy[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Italy

The virus was first confirmed to have spread to Italy on 31 January 2020, when two Chinese tourists in Rome tested positive for the virus.[1] One week later an Italian man repatriated back to Italy from the city of Wuhan, China, was hospitalized and confirmed as the third case in Italy.[4] Clusters of cases were later detected in Lombardy and Veneto on 21 February,[5] with the first deaths on 22 February.[6] By the beginning of March, the virus had spread to all regions of Italy.[7][8][9][10]

On 31 January, the Italian government suspended all flights to and from China and declared a state of emergency. In February, eleven municipalities in northern Italy were identified as the centres of the two main Italian clusters and placed under quarantine. 

One of the red lines in this pandemic is lack of international coordination...Wintersport-tourists getting infected in Austria, spreading it further...Carnaval celebrations allowed in many places-with further massive spread...

Still summer of 2020 finally did see that much restrictions it may have stopped the pandemic if it was given enough time to do so. But tourists going to France, Spain did return with local variants to NW Europe...so early autumn 2020 it became clear this outbreak would become totally different from the 2003 SARS-1 outbreak...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_Italy[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_Italy  and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_during_the_COVID-19_pandemic[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_during_the_COVID-19_pandemic

A study in Science found that travel restrictions could delay the initial arrival of COVID-19 in a country, but that they produced only modest overall effects unless combined with infection prevention and control measures to considerably reduce transmissions.[8] (This is consistent with prior research on influenza and other communicable diseases.[9][10]) Travel bans may be most effective for isolated locations, such as small island nations.[10]

Researchers came to the conclusion that "travel restrictions are most useful in the early and late phase of an epidemic" and "restrictions of travel from Wuhan unfortunately came too late".[11]

Looking back it has to be clear most governments failed to take the right steps at the right time....to little, to late continued in 2021...

My point was comparing 2003-SARS-1 with SARS-2/CoViD-19 in 2019, early 2020....I think contact tracing was still possible due to still limited spread in 2003. China managed to contain a lot of cases in the early stages but far from 100%...

If SARS-2/CoViD-19 was more infectious then SARS-1 the 2003 answers/reactions simply were not enough in 2020.

We have to learn from this early stages, try to avoid making the same mistakes again...I write knowing those mistakes did become policy...

Maybe just a short mention of the "lab-leak" story...This is not the first corona virus disease outbreak...we may have seen a lot of them. Some may never have made headlines-stayed limited. The "Russian Flu" of 1890 may have been a CoViD pandemic...not a flu...most likely very limited travel did end that outbreak. It did not develop in many variants...SARS-1 only was "SARS-1"...no further variants....

DJ-I think lab-safety is a global issue. There are risks...but you do not need a lab-leak to end up with CoViD-19 ! Bats in the South China border area with Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam rainforests make more sense to me-with most likely over 30 different corona virusses...This pandemic HAD to happen, corona-virus "doing the job"...otherwise another virus "would do the job"....


-Here in NL a Belgian WHO director, Hans Kluge, is quoted "End of pandemic may be in sight..."..."After Omicron there would be weeks or months of immunity in most of Europe"...."CoViD may return end of this year but by then be controlable".....

DJ-With all respect to this Belgian MD, much better educated then I am, no doubt doing the best he can...I think he is 100% wrong !

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/europe-another-huge-covid-wave-is-building-right-across-the-continent/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/europe-another-huge-covid-wave-is-building-right-across-the-continent/ ; The current wave in Europe is not entirely made up of Omicron cases either. In some countries, more than 50% of cases are still Delta variant.

Under the circumstances, removing all Covid mitigations now, as the UK is proposing to do, would be completely insane.
BA.2 has a growth rate advantage over BA.1 of ca 0.11/day. That's quite sizeable. If it would have the same short generation time as BA.1 of 2.2 days it would imply a ca.1.3x higher transmissibility, due to higher contagiousness or immune escape.

DJ simply ignoring BA.2 increase "not a major worry yet", not seeing some Delta variants do keep spreading...going for "hopium" and it is only mild...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/23/skyrocketing-covid-infections-65000-test-positive-data-backlog-worsening[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/23/skyrocketing-covid-infections-65000-test-positive-data-backlog-worsening

A record 65,393 people tested positive for the coronavirus between Saturday and Sunday morning, besting the previous single-day record set earlier in the week by nearly 8,000. The number of infections may also not accurately reflect the number of people who tested positive. The RIVM confirmed that they still have a significant amount of data missing from their records.

The health institute said that the volume of people testing positive remains too high for the systems at the GGD to handle it all, and thus not everything is being passed on to the RIVM. “Therefore, the figures portray an underreporting of approximately 48,000 reports over the past 6 days,” the organization said. Despite efforts to address the IT shortcomings, that figure rose by 2,000 since Saturday, and by 21,000 since Thursday.


The seven-day average now stands at a record-high 45,903, an increase of 42 percent in a week. If the missing data were included, the average would be near 52,800, reflecting a 63 percent week-to-week increase. In either case, the seven-day average has effectively doubled in 14 days’ time, and quadrupled since the end of December.

About 44 percent of people tested by the GGD during the January 15-21 period received a positive diagnosis, continuing the record-breaking trend. Almost 124,800 tested positive each of day in that period, up about a third in a week.

And this will not only be a NL story....In NL hospital cases going up slowly by now...The main reason for lifting restrictions was-in NL-hospital/ICU cases going down...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ weekend numbers-so supposed to be a bit low;

Sunday 2,227,075 cases worldwide, trend still +5%, deaths 4,829 trend +6% (deaths % higher then cases% may mean a peak in cases is in sight...unless other variants are around...like BA.2...) saturday had 2,837,074 cases, 6,380 reported deaths...

France cases STILL +22%, deaths +9%...statistics very much different from the UK. France has more restrictions, as far as I know more vaccinations...cases should be dropping by now but they are not....

The virus has outsmarted us, it has outwitted us, and it’s winning hands down. It’s hardly surprising given how dimwitted and clumsy our response has been so far.

It’s a pandemic. Do we really have to wait for our fourth or fifth infection to work this simple shit out?

India [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba2/india-omicron-ba-2-is-now-at-57-of-genome-samples-but-is-delta-rising-again/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba2/india-omicron-ba-2-is-now-at-57-of-genome-samples-but-is-delta-rising-again/ trends for India cases +29%, deaths +34%.....

What is surprising, however, is what looks like a recent increase in Delta variant cases, which now account for about 14% of samples according to CoVSpectrum. Delta was found in almost no genome samples at the turn of the year. This apparent increase could be an anomaly caused by the low number of samples submitted in 2022, but it’s something we’ll keep an eye on.

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-the-findings-of-the-prevalence-of-active-sars-cov-2-in-seafoods-like-bivalve-mollusks-by-authorities-in-southern-italy-raises-lots-of-questio[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-the-findings-of-the-prevalence-of-active-sars-cov-2-in-seafoods-like-bivalve-mollusks-by-authorities-in-southern-italy-raises-lots-of-questio ns...

So what can we do? Well, we can do what we should have been doing since February 2020!
  • FREE masks – FFP2 minimum
  • FREE testing
  • FREE ventilation installations, particularly schools and shops
  • Full sick pay for self-isolation of up to 14 days
  • Smaller classrooms located across communities to protect our kids
  • Working from home wherever possible
  • Less contact, reducing unnecessary interactions
  • Less meetings, less flights, less travel, less cruises, less holidays
  • Less festivals, less concerts, less sports events, less garden parties
  • Eat a better diet
  • Support each other
  • Stop hoping big pharma will bail us out – they won’t, they can’t

DJ-We keep making the same mistakes over and over again...The basic idea seems to be very incorrect; herd immunity ? Forget it-this is NOT !!!! a flu !!!!! "It will become cold-like" why ? It is not doing so now.....

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2022 at 7:48am

As with all things it is important to separate the chicken and the egg.  The 2003 version was less contagious: https://www.healthline.com/health/coronavirus-vs-sars#severity And there were no variants because the spread was tamped quickly.

As soon as we had one Covid variant, we were doomed to a lengthy recovery period   As I have said before, when Covid was first announced, a complete worldwide shutdown was in order.  It was not done.  Everything that we have done, we have been playing a catch-up game with this virus.  Largely as a result of human avarice, greed and stubbornness/stupidity.  Nothing can change that now.  It is too late as long as TPTB have no interest in changing.

I am the DZ Queen, and I approve this message.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2022 at 9:57pm

good find ViQueen24, first part of the story did not convince me that much. SARS 1 may have looked more severe because of lack of testing....but the lack of asymptomatic spread made it more containable...

Some factors that may contribute to COVID-19 being around for longer include the following:

  • About 80 percentTrusted Source of people with COVID-19 have a mild illness. Some may not even know that they’re sick. This makes it harder to determine who has developed a viral infection and who has not.
  • People with COVID-19 appear to shed the virus earlier in the course of their infection than people with SARS. This makes it more difficult to detect who has the virus and isolate them before they transfer it to others.
  • SARS-CoV-2 is now being easily transmitted within communities. This was not the case with SARS-CoV, which was more commonly transferred in healthcare settings.
  • We’re even more globally connected than we were in 2003, making it easier for SARS-CoV-2 to be transmitted between regions and countries.

Some viruses, such as those that cause the flu and the common cold, follow seasonal patterns. There has been no evidence of seasonal variation with SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19.

-

There are many similarities between COVID-19 and SARS. However, there are also important differences. COVID-19 cases can range from mild to severe, while SARS cases, in general, were more severe. But SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is transmitted more easily.


Allthough I think other factors -like the (English speaking) Hong Kong Metropole Hotel superspreader, early action matters...

The story does not give all the answers...but at least some good basic ideas ! Very welcome ! 

DJ-I wish more media would ask why 2003 SARS-1 was that limited and why CoViD-19 did get out of hand this much...


-I am also trying to keep an eye on "US steps to increase LNG export"...the US now oil producer #1...Russia, Saudi Arabia at #2 or 3, Libya, Iraq, Iran also "competition"...what a coincident they have wars/sanctions....

The biden-bojo-show ; [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/a-war-in-ukraine-is-tactics-putin-does-strategy.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/a-war-in-ukraine-is-tactics-putin-does-strategy.html 

[url]https://thesaker.is/iran-russia-hit-maximum-strategy/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/iran-russia-hit-maximum-strategy/ 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-foreign-policy-chief-suggests-us-uk-are-dramatizing-ukraine-situation[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-foreign-policy-chief-suggests-us-uk-are-dramatizing-ukraine-situation ;

Crucially, Normandy format talks are set to kick off in Paris on Tuesday and Wednesday, which has been pushed by Germany who has largely stayed neutral as Western allies escalate their response, where German, Russian, Ukrainian and French officials will tackle the Ukraine crisis.

Reuters had earlier reported that "Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to Ukraine's chief negotiator Andriy Yermak, confirmed that a meeting in Paris was planned but told Reuters a preliminary date had been set for Jan. 26." The Kremlin had over the weekend stated the sides "agreed on further contacts, including the participation of the Ukrainian leadership so as to end [the conflict in eastern Ukraine] as soon as possible."

DJ, The two insane western "leaders' bojo, biden pushing the world into yet another crisis...One reason you will not see any polls on this in most western countries because there is totally NO support for starting world war three for including Ukraine in NATO...

We are in a very serious global healthcare crisis and two "major (I find it hard to find a fitting word...they are not "leaders") factors" think "let us start yet another war" .....What has gone wrong in politics that we end up with these type of crazy ones....

My-limited-view;

-Russia will do all it can to not invade Ukraine...(US/UK crazy ones need "Russian agression" ). Russia will stop attacks on Russians inside Ukraine however...

-Most likely there are allready talks on what Ukraine needs. Investments NOT weapons !!!! The Ukraine elite knows they do not have any chance against Russia. As part of EurAsia integration they have lots of chances WITH Russia, China, Iran...

-Again "the west" is very divided. Turkey/second largest NATO army and in "the region" going for its own interests (may be working with Iran). US, UK and maybe present Poland extremist government need a crisis. (Western) Europe will do anything to end that crisis, need Russian energy (US LNG simply very limited and expensive). 

If the bojo-biden duo keeps escalating it may end NATO. US foreign policy did create the Russian-Iran-China "strategic partnership"...somehow the US keeps making the same mistakes...

Make trade not war....

The global pandemic STILL not priority #1...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 24 2022 at 10:23pm

part 2, numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Monday-reflecting limited sunday testing did see 2,407,960 new cases being reported +9% and 6,627 deaths +8%...for that matter the pandemic keeps getting worse. 

France cases +22%, deaths +14%....decrease of BA.1 Omicron, increase of BA.2 can NOT explain those numbers for this long. 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ on december 27 France reported 30,000 new cases...december 28 it "exploded" to 179,807...you may link at least part of it of BA.1 Omicron spread after christmas...however 464,769 French cases on january 18 can no longer be linked to christmas/New Year directly...[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FRA[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FRA may have very limited BA.2 in "others", BA.1 gaining dominance end of 2021. B.1.640 only 1%....

I was hoping [url]https://twitter.com/flodebarre[/url] or https://twitter.com/flodebarre could provide answers...Also [url]https://twitter.com/LenaSchimmel[/url] or https://twitter.com/LenaSchimmel trying to get some view...








Flu kills 12-52K/year in the US. #COVID19 has killed > 400K/year in the US (850K total). It’s not the flu. But if we had Canada’s COVID death rate, we would have < 300K deaths. If Norway, < 100K. If Japan, < 50K. We could make it no worse than flu but have chosen not to do so.

DJ...I could relate this info on why SARS1 was limited...it did not spread in the US....








Replying to  and 
Maybe this has something to do with Northern Ireland having 5% BA.2 versus 0,6% BA.2 for the UK in total, for the last 28 days, according to COG-UK. NI on the 9th of January had 22 BA.2 and 234 BA.1. Looking at Denmark this might mean BA.2 is at 20-30% today. H/t 


Image

See also [url]https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma/status/1485616854886498310/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma/status/1485616854886498310/photo/1 BA.2 0,6% in the UK, over 5% in the North part of Ireland...Josette also reporting on massive BA.2 numbers from Nepal...cases +131%, deaths +112%...

[url]https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220122-scientists-scrutinise-characteristics-of-new-covid-19-omicron-sub-variant-ba-2[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220122-scientists-scrutinise-characteristics-of-new-covid-19-omicron-sub-variant-ba-2 ;

To date, the sub-variant has been detected "at very low levels" in France, says France’s public health agency. "We have an international situation where the Omicron variant is circulating a lot, so it is normal that we observe sub-variants over time," the agency said on January 21. 

DJ Garbage may be the best word for this article...France is seeing extreme numbers for 4 weeks and this "pseudo news" keeps downplaying the story...France NOT providing good info is feeding [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/france-reports-400,851-new-covid-19-cases-and-233-deaths-in-last-24-hours-what-s-really-at-play-omicron-ba-1,-ba-2,-b-1-640-or-b-1-640-2[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/france-reports-400,851-new-covid-19-cases-and-233-deaths-in-last-24-hours-what-s-really-at-play-omicron-ba-1,-ba-2,-b-1-640-or-b-1-640-2 stories...

I mentioned him yesterday [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/who-the-end-the-pandemic-is-plausible/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/who-the-end-the-pandemic-is-plausible/

The Covid-19 pandemic has entered a new phase with the Omicron variant, which could infect 60 percent of people in Europe by March, and could bring it to an end, the WHO Europe director said Sunday. “It’s plausible that the region is moving towards a kind of pandemic endgame.”

Really? Has anyone told the virus yet?

DJ I want to stay polite....[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/410[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/410

(I'm creating a new issue instead of commenting under #361 because this affects information in multiple other issues.)

In #361 the defining mutations for BA.1 and BA.2 are listed as a table. Both the image and the linked csv file contain A22786T.

I recently stumbled across many BA.2 sequences with A22786C instead of A22786T. It was confirmed by @FedeGueli by a CovSpectrum query that A22786C is much more common than A22786T (822 times more common at time of writing). I think this means that the table is wrong. All eleven samples with T occurred between 2021-12-19 and 2021-12-30 which indicates that C was also dominant when the tables were created on 2021-12-07.

I've checked the other issues and found that #367 and #392 also list A22786T as mutation of BA.2. #390 does not explicitly mention it, but the image in this comment gives further proof that A22786C is the actual mutation.

In this repository some files inside misc/B.1.1.529_sublineages are affected and must be updated, also some files in the gromstole repository by PoonLab / @ArtPoon. Where else could this have consequences?

Luckily both potential nucleotide mutations result in S:R408S. (So at least I'm not worried that Biontech is currently producing BA.2-vaccine with the wrong spike protein 😅) Do you know of any BA.2-specific PCR primers/probes that may be affected?

Following science, Lena Schimmel (also on twitter) doing a good job ! Could it be there are more then one BA.2 sub-variants of Omicron spreading ? Indications are the "C" change in BA.2 was limited to end of december in Denmark, the "T"change (from "A" at position 22,786 in the RNA-"string") is very common...

Some related NL news [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/24/remarkably-high-number-covid-19-hospital-patients-age-30[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/24/remarkably-high-number-covid-19-hospital-patients-age-30

The influx of new Covid-19 hospital patients who are under the age of 30 has never been as high as it is now, the LCPS said in an alert. The office coordinates the distribution of coronavirus patients across the country, and issues daily reports about the number of Covid-19 patients in hospitals. Thus far, the LCPS cannot provide a concrete reason for the increase in patients under 30 years of age, but said the increase is most visible in the regular care wards thus far.

Coronavirus infection rates among young people have been extremely high in recent weeks. "We weren't too concerned about that, because these age groups are at the lowest risk, but our data specialists were impressed by the high admissions rates," said a spokesperson for the LCPS. She hopes that more clarity can be provided in the coming days. The LCPS will study the underlying data, but is not yet ready to share its conclusions.


Figures from the RIVM in recent weeks have shown that many people have contracted the coronavirus, especially in younger age groups. In the latest weekly reports, the number of infections was highest among 18 to 24-year-olds. The RIVM recorded about 3,000 cases per 100,000 inhabitants just in that group. That is more than six times as many infections as among people in their sixties and even fourteen times as many as among people aged 70 to 79 years.

One question being analyzed is whether the rising hospital admissions among young people can be entirely explained by the explosive increase in coronavirus infections among people under 30.

DJ; Good reporting...I think it is very likely the high number of cases is seeing a lot of under 30 y/o-lower level of vaccination-ending up in hospital. But as a ratio it may be still lower then one would see with "older" "Delta-subvariants"....[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/24/nearly-65000-test-positive-data-backlog-falls-ggds-reach-full-test-capacity[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/24/nearly-65000-test-positive-data-backlog-falls-ggds-reach-full-test-capacity ; Including the backlog, about 390,000 new coronavirus infections were likely diagnosed in the past week, putting the unofficial seven-day moving average at 55,700. The number of confirmed infections reported by the RIVM since last Monday is 343,331. That equates to an average of 49,047 new cases per day, the highest level ever. The confirmed weekly total is almost 43 percent higher than the sum for the seven days prior.

-

The number of Covid-19 patients in Dutch hospitals increased by 4 percent on Monday. To 1,141. That is 48 more than on Sunday, according to the most recent figures from the LCPS. In intensive care units, the number of Covid-19 patients continued its decline. There are currently 262 such patients, 13 fewer than on Sunday. There are 879 patients with the disease in the regular care wards, an increase of 61. That was the strongest increase in over a month.

DJ, NL population 17,6 million...so 176,000 = 1%, 343,331 positive tests last week =2% of NL population testing positive...hospital cases going up...so [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/24/sources-cabinet-allow-hospitality-cultural-sectors-open-10-pm-events-possible[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/24/sources-cabinet-allow-hospitality-cultural-sectors-open-10-pm-events-possible 'time to open up"....

NL cases +43%, deaths however still -13%...I do not think there is any strategy..."going for herd immunity" while there is NO !!! herdimmunity...We are now TWO YEARS IN THIS PANDEMIC !!!! PLEASE !!!!

(I calm down...) 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/large-peer-reviewed-research-study-proves-ivermectin-works[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/large-peer-reviewed-research-study-proves-ivermectin-works

Researchers in Brazil found that regular use of ivermectin as a prophylactic agent was associated with significantly reduced COVID-19 infection, hospitalization and mortality rates.

The study was conducted in Itajaí, a port city in the state of Santa Catarina, between July and December 2020. Study authors include FLCCC physicians Dr. Flavio Cadegiani and Dr. Pierre Kory. Lead author Dr. Lucy Kerr was approached by the mayor of Itajaí, after the city began to experience a severe outbreak of COVID.

DJ, I would love the idea Ivermectin could be of any use....but I am getting less and less convinced...This pandemic is NOT under control-also in India, Brazil "where Ivermectin did miracles"...the numbers simply do not show it ! 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/lancet-patients-co-infected-with-intestinal-parasites-had-lower-odds-of-developing-severe-covid-19/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/lancet-patients-co-infected-with-intestinal-parasites-had-lower-odds-of-developing-severe-covid-19/

Interpretation: Parasite co-infection is associated with a reduced risk of severe COVID-19 in African patients. Parasite-driven immunomodulatory responses may mute hyper-inflammation associated with severe COVID-19.

Lancet paper: Effect of co-infection with intestinal parasites on COVID-19 severity: A prospective observational cohort study

 Just please, don’t try this at home folks!

DJ looks like a contra indication to me. 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/serbia-97-5-covid-positivity-rate-at-a-childrens-clinic-in-vranje/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/serbia-97-5-covid-positivity-rate-at-a-childrens-clinic-in-vranje/

Thirty nine out of 40 children tested for coronavirus at the Children’s Covid Clinic in Vranje were positive for Covid-19 in the past 24 hours, confirmed the Health Center (ZC) in Vranje. The percentage of infection is 97.5 percent. Only one child had a negative test result.

Fourteen children are of preschool age, and 25 are of school age.

Vranjenews.rs report (in Serbian)

DJ The idea of children getting protection after infection is seeing a lot of children getting ill...It is crazy !

End of part 2, hope to find time later on today for a part 3-more news/twitter

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2022 at 2:38am

DJ,

[url]https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/01/19/ready-for-another-game-of-russian-roulette/[/url] or https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/01/19/ready-for-another-game-of-russian-roulette/

On the B-59, Captain Valentin Savitsky and his political officer realized that it was now or never. Their choice was either to surface—which was equivalent to surrender while they, perhaps alone, had the ability to launch a significant counterattack—or to fire their nuclear torpedo. They decided to attack and readied to aim for the aircraft carrier at the core of the submarine-hunting fleet.

Only one man stood in the way of a nuclear Armageddon, and he was on board the B-59 by chance. He was Vasili Arkhipov, the commander of the four-submarine Soviet flotilla, who vetoed the attack, leaving Captain Savitsky with no alternative but to surface.

We were very lucky then....US Navy trying to sink a Soviet submarine in the Atlantic during the Cuba-crisis of 1962....

Relating it to [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/analysis-what-would-a-confrontation-between-russia-and-nato-look-like[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/analysis-what-would-a-confrontation-between-russia-and-nato-look-like DJ-Cyberware/sabotage may destroy means of communication...making any major military operation on a larger scale impossible. (Both for Russia-Iran-China and NATO).

-[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/1-in-20-israelis-infected-yet-experts-optimistic-omicron-wont-defeat-hospitals/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/1-in-20-israelis-infected-yet-experts-optimistic-omicron-wont-defeat-hospitals/

Everything depends on the half million people who are currently infected — that’s more than 1 in 20 citizens. Their progress in overcoming the virus is likely to determine whether Israel rides out this record wave without hospitals becoming overwhelmed.

The 83,088 new diagnoses on Sunday bring Israel’s infected population to 531,430, and the total number of infections during the pandemic to 2,387,131.

-

It looks like we’re following the British trend,” said Katz. “It looks like we’re following them, and we’re about three to four weeks behind them

Israel trends, cases +28%, deaths +79%. UK cases -6%, deaths 0%...looking at UK numbers cases may start increasing soon...more or less flatlined...BA.2 increasing...

DJ Both cases [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#daily-cases[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#daily-cases 7-day, as deaths [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#daily-deaths[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#daily-deaths going up (more simple cases +9%, deaths +8% as weekly global trend).

Yet the "story" is "Omicron will be ending it all"....downright stupid [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports/omicron?loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports/omicron?loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false BA.2 (with BA.1, BA.1.1 and BA.3 the subvariants of Omicron) increasing on a global level....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/936753-an-11-year-old-with-abdominal-pain-3-months-after-getting-covid-19-still-had-the-coronavirus-in-her-gut[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/936753-an-11-year-old-with-abdominal-pain-3-months-after-getting-covid-19-still-had-the-coronavirus-in-her-gut latest; 

The child must have a chaotic life if her vaccination status is unknown. An 11-yr-old should have been able to communicate that herself, if she had the cognitive or verbal abilities to do so. It's important to know because there was an inactive measles vaccine in 1967 that set up children to get a more serious, atypical form of measles when they encountered the wild virus.


Altered reactivity to measles virus: atypical measles in children previously immunized with inactivated measles virus vaccines
VA Fulginiti, JJ Eller, AW Downie, CH Kempe - Jama, 1967 - jamanetwork.com

atypical measles illness occurred in ten children who had received inactivated (killed) measles
… They reported nine instances of atypical measles in children immunized previously with …

Save Cite Cited by 479 Related articles All 5 versions

DJ vaccines are far from perfect...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/norway-248-deaths-and-nearly-52000-reports-of-other-covid-vaccine-side-effects/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/norway-248-deaths-and-nearly-52000-reports-of-other-covid-vaccine-side-effects/ This story claims Norway did see 248 vaccination deaths, 1,414 CoViD deaths...[url]https://legemiddelverket.no/english/covid-19-and-medicines/vaccines-against-covid-19/reported-suspected-adverse-reactions-of-covid-19-vaccines[/url] or https://legemiddelverket.no/english/covid-19-and-medicines/vaccines-against-covid-19/reported-suspected-adverse-reactions-of-covid-19-vaccines and [url]https://www.fhi.no/en/archive/covid-19-archive/covid-19---archived-news-2021/january/international-interest-about-deaths-following-coronavirus-vaccination/[/url] or https://www.fhi.no/en/archive/covid-19-archive/covid-19---archived-news-2021/january/international-interest-about-deaths-following-coronavirus-vaccination/ ;

DJ Article from a year ago; On 14th January, a report about 23 deaths reported in Norway in connection with vaccination among severely frail elderly people published by the Norwegian Medicines Agency has generated interest outside Norway So are most of the 248 people not dying FROM but WITH vaccination, old age, poor health ? Bad reporting...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/936532-public-outrage-over-the-unvaccinated-is-driving-a-crisis-in-bioethics[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/936532-public-outrage-over-the-unvaccinated-is-driving-a-crisis-in-bioethics DJ Blame-games....vaccinated in most countries with a high level of vaccines may do a lot of the spread...Among the unvaccinated a high percentage is under 12 y/o...easy to blame...See also [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-preliminary-published-and-unpublished-data-is-indicating-omicron-evolved-for-enhanced-viral-persistence-as-it-is-better-at-evading-host-s-immu[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-preliminary-published-and-unpublished-data-is-indicating-omicron-evolved-for-enhanced-viral-persistence-as-it-is-better-at-evading-host-s-immu nity.

DJ BA.2 now increasing most likely infecting people still with BA.1 infection, Delta subvariants...Lots of countries now are willing to face the limits vaccinations have. YES It may reduce severe cases, it did decrease somewhat earlier variant spread...that is about it. More "freedoms" for the vaccinated, lifting restrictions did more then undo what was gained by vaccinations...Still some "leaders" need to blame someone...








U.S. COVID update: Nearly 1.1 million new cases, incl backlogs
- New cases: 1,094,208 
- Average: 743,177 (+43,761*) 
- States reporting: 45/50 
- In hospital: 149,798 (-2,486)
 - ICU: 25,693 (-321) 
- New deaths: 3,028 
*Affected by last week's holiday Data: https://newsnodes.com/us

And








South Korea reports 8,571 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record

How to define "new normal" ?








It's funny how so-called centrists need COVID deniers to convince others they are centrists & not minimizers. Clever PR move, often used in politics. Find a lunatic & position yourself as a moderate though your opinions differ only slightly from a lunatic.

Simple strategy; Media-Experts-Politics ; "We still have to be carefull", crazy-expert "pandemic is over"...DJ; Statistics it is still getting worse !









UK, US, SA statistics...should not be that hard to read...








BA.2 has a growth rate advantage over BA.1 of ca 0.11/day. That's quite sizeable. If it would have the same short generation time as BA.1 of 2.2 days it would imply a ca.1.3x higher transmissibility, due to higher contagiousness or immune escape.

DJ, I still expect BA.2 Omicron may be renamed and become a Variant Of Concern before february 1....(but I am not an expert, denialism is very strong. However "a new variant"excuse may be usefull for "politics").

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Inconvenient_Truth[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Inconvenient_Truth in this pandemic may be "we are using it-for profit-not fighting it....

It may need to get very much worse-and it very likely will get that much worse-before it becomes a "game-changer". Just like "climate change" expected to bring problems to children that can not even vote....unborn babies...our political system fails. 








Long CoViD may be the game-changer. Sending tens of millions of people into poverty because "the economy needed saving" (and Russia does not accept an invitation for war) is a growing socio-economic burden. [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/22/roughly-500-healthcare-workers-risk-losing-job-due-long-covid[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/22/roughly-500-healthcare-workers-risk-losing-job-due-long-covid ;

At least 500 healthcare workers will soon be on sick leave for two years due to Long Covid, trade union FNV reported. At the end of December, the union opened a hotline for healthcare workers who have been on sick leave for an extended period after a Covid-19 infection.

In the first three weeks after opening the hotline, the FNV received 2,087 reports. Around 70 percent of people thought they were infected with the coronavirus at work.


FNV wanted a solution to be found quickly for the people who would be on sick leave for two years. According to the union, they risk losing their job. "From next March, the first group affected will have been ill for two years. They have already received a letter from the employer's union, UWV. The FNV, therefore, wants urgent work to be done to achieve financial compensation for these healthcare workers who worked, and are still working, in the front line," FNV vice-chair Kitty Jong said.

FNV wants a compensation fund for healthcare workers who have contracted Long Covid. "This could be comparable to funds we already have in the Netherlands for occupational diseases and asbestos diseases," De Jong said. The various parties that people have to deal with when they are on sick leave for a long time, such as the UWV and employers, should also work better together, according to the FNV.

At the moment, according to the FNV, healthcare workers only get compensation if they end up in the ICU due to a Covid-19 infection or one of their loved ones dies due to Covid-19

DJ In practice loosing a job, may mean loosing the house, poverty...Not only in NL but in many places Long CoViD will mean loss of income...at an unseen level. The storm that will bring may change "politics"...

PS [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/just-to-give-you-an-idea-of-how-stupidly-the-covid-19-pandemic-is-being-managed-and-the-mess-the-world-is-in[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/just-to-give-you-an-idea-of-how-stupidly-the-covid-19-pandemic-is-being-managed-and-the-mess-the-world-is-in

End of part 3



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2022 at 9:56pm

DJ;









It's over. One by one, countries are abolishing remaining containment measures. We lost. We traded away the scientific progress of the 19th & 20th centuries for faith. What happens next is now up to a chance, luck, throw of a dice. I'm upping my most pessimistic scenario to 20%.

The protection will wane vs. infection but keep solid protection vs. severe outcomes (the more boosters, the better). But, that's not the point. That's not good enough on its own to stop the pandemic. We've given up on trying & now hang on to dubious beliefs. Witchcraft is back.

A description of global insanity....giving up strategies to limit CoViD..."Omicron will save us"...However if Ukraine can not join NATO we "will blow up the world" (UK/US idiots...) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ePtbMWm5gk[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ePtbMWm5gk'Russian Invasion Scare' Unravels, Ukraine Breaks Ranks with US/UK, Denies Russian Invasion Pending News Topic 399

DJ Alexander Mercouris, good info...

A look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Global reported/tested cases 3,369,091 trend +9%, 9,837 deaths +12%...51,361 deaths going up to 57,678 deaths last 7 days...

France now #1 in reported cases; 501,635 still +18% ! 467 deaths +17%....it can not be only BA.2 taking over BA.1, because that is happening all over the globe...








German Omicron update 2022-01-25 * More daily BA.2 cases (5%, 8k) than Delta (2-3%, 4-5k). * Highest BA.2 proportion in Berlin (~30%). * BA.2 growth advantage over Delta ~20% per day; BA.1 ~15% faster than Delta per day.

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/france-registers-record-501,635-new-covid-19-cases-and-364-deaths-in-last-24-hours-with-more-than-30,000-people-now-hospitalized-and-3,700-in-icu[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/france-registers-record-501,635-new-covid-19-cases-and-364-deaths-in-last-24-hours-with-more-than-30,000-people-now-hospitalized-and-3,700-in-icu 

So a look at Germany; 148,408 new cases reported..trend +60%, 184 deaths -18%...still early phase. 

UK cases-as far as being reported-94,326 -3%, 439 deaths also -3%...BA.2 also increasing in the UK. 

A look at Israel-booster champion; cases 64,094 (population of Israel is 9,3 million, so allmost 0,7% of Israel population testing positive on one day !) trend +17%. Only 7 deaths reported yesterday however trend +57% last week 74, last 7 days 116 Israel CoViD deaths...). 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/25/rutte-coronavirus-restrictions-relaxed-despite-possibility-100000-new-infections-per-day[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/25/rutte-coronavirus-restrictions-relaxed-despite-possibility-100000-new-infections-per-day DJ Last week 2% of NL population testing positive...weekly trend +51%, deaths still -5% hospital cases increasing...a lot of them under 30 y/o with no/limited vaccine protection. 

USA cases 443,072 (special monday=lower testing in US ?) still -20%, 2,611 deaths +13%...45 deaths per million of population...Greece had 63 dpm last 7 days, Hungary 43, Poland 37, Russia 33, France, Argentina, Peru, Portugal, Colombia all 28 deaths per million of population, UK 27, Denmark 20, NL "only" 3...

Russia reporting 67,809 new cases weekly trend +107% so an Omicron subvariant most likely spreading there as well, 681 Russian deaths -4%

India reporting 285,914 new cases, trend +19%, 692 deaths +53%

Brazil 199,126 new cases reported, trend +91%, 489 deaths +79%

I did see on twitter for NL it may be realistic to believe 4% of the population, 1 in 25, did get infected last week...both testing, reporting, sequencing unable to deal with the numbers...

Somehow there is a global insane idea "Omicron" will provide 'natural immunity" and end this pandemic...BA.2-still named Omicron-infecting people that may even be recovering from BA.1....A world gone crazy...

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/412[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/412No, what's most likely happened is that a sequence from 2022-01-11 was input as 2021-01-11, and as a result it shows up as the "earliest sequence" on GISAID when it is not.

Discussion on dates for Omicron...; putting in info can be confusing...an early find was from january 11 this year, not november 1 last year...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/preprint-75-of-covid-icu-patients-report-symptoms-after-one-year/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/preprint-75-of-covid-icu-patients-report-symptoms-after-one-year/

Of 246 patients who were alive 1 year following ICU treatment for COVID-19, 74.3% reported physical symptoms, 26.2% reported mental symptoms, and 16.2% reported cognitive symptoms.

Physical, mental, and cognitive symptoms were frequent 1 year after ICU treatment for COVID-19.

Jama Network Preprint: Clinical Outcomes Among Patients With 1-Year Survival Following Intensive Care Unit Treatment for COVID-19

DJ A NL (Nijmegen) study, however around 75% for ALL ICU cases-so also including non-CoViD-is seeing major health issues after 1 year...recovery takes a lot of time. There will allways be some mental scars...even those feeling very healthy later on may face nightmares...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2022 at 10:23pm

part 2, 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/are-all-sars-cov-2-genomic-data-being-manipulated-and-controlled-u-s-cdc-and-south-korea-finally-admit-b-1-619-and-b-1-620-variants-predominant-in-sou[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/are-all-sars-cov-2-genomic-data-being-manipulated-and-controlled-u-s-cdc-and-south-korea-finally-admit-b-1-619-and-b-1-620-variants-predominant-in-sou th Korea

DJ, Again France-and no doubt several other countries-should have peaked in cases increase. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ French cases jumped from 65,000 december 15 to 200,000+ early january, now around 400,000 per day with yesterday 500,000+

Mid december [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ UK had 85,000 cases. It went up to a peak around 200,000 cases early january now down to 95,000 per day last days...

France population 65,5 million, UK 68,4 million...France may have had over 1% of its population getting infected yesterday...Both countries facing an increase of BA.2 "Omicron"...








BA.2 looks to be growing in the UK, so SGTF is falling again. If it sweeps, that will be a five-in-a-row run of the virus switching SGTF on and off in successive sweeps White heavy check markCross markWhite heavy check markCross markWhite heavy check mark. The virus is trolling whole-genome sequencing.

My idea on France is if one subvariant is going down another subvariant is now that fast you may see no peaks anymore. 

Thailand Medical News  (TMN) claims a few points; numbers/sequences being manipulated (a.o. French CoViD deaths 6x the official number-a lot of them simply not getting tested (DJ-What is the point of testing when all symptoms are clear...testing capacity overstretched).

France had 1,851 deaths last week-if TMN is correct the real French number of deaths last week could be in the 9,000 to 10,000 range. 

ADE, immunity spreading the virus-with 70% of hospital cases being vaccinated is another claim. I-DJ-NOT an expert, just trying to make some sense of it all-see the number of vaccinated in hospital not that different from vaccination levels in most of France. So one may believe vaccines offer less protection against hospital admission...ADE may see numbers even worse...

Another point is what variants are spreading in France. Most likely BA.1 Omicron going down, BA.2 "exploding" but very likely some Delta subvariants could be part of the French story as well. B.1.640 (.2 ?) or some other (sub)variants may be harder to find, regional...

So trying to understand why France has such high numbers-with more restrictions-may be explained maybe by more (sub)variants not being stopped by any form of immunity ????








Qatar dropped a bunch of samples on GISAID yesterday. Turns out they have a very high % of BA.2. 70% in week 52. And looking at when their current high wave started, I think that mostly consists of people infected with BA.2 and that they haven't had much BA.1.

There is a global monitoring/sequencing problem.

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Sublineages_and_BA.2_subvariant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Sublineages_and_BA.2_subvariant ; In Denmark, the first BA.2 was in a sample collected on 5 December 2021 and extremely few were found in the directly following period.[59] By week fifty (13–19 December) it had started to increase, with BA.2 being at around 2 percent of sequenced cases compared to 46 percent BA.1 (remaining Delta). The frequency of both Omicron subvariants continued to increase throughout the last half of December; in week fifty-two (27 December–2 January), BA.2 had reached 20 percent and BA.1 peaked at 72 percent. 

In January 2022, BA.1 began decreasing, whereas BA.2 continued its increase. By the second week (10–16 January) of 2022, the frequency of the two was almost equal, both being marginally below 50 percent (around one percent was the rapidly disappearing Delta).[59] In the following week, BA.2 became dominant in Denmark with 65 percent of new cases being the BA.2 subvariant.[60] 

Trends from the other Scandinavian countries, India, South Africa and the United Kingdom also suggest that BA.2 is increasing in proportion to the original BA.1.[61][62] As of 24 January, Danish healthcare authorities had not seen differences between BA.1 and BA.2 in hospitalizations or severity, and early data from India points in the same direction.[44][60][63] 

Norwegian studies show that the amount of virus in the upper airways is similar in those infected with BA.1 and BA.2.[62] In Norway, a few people infected with BA.2 had been infected with BA.1 earlier.[63] In Denmark, its breakthrough rates in people that had been vaccinated or had been infected with COVID-19 before have been similar to the breakthrough and reinfection rates seen for BA.1.[60] Further study is being conduced by the Danish Statens Serum Institut and it is also being investigated by the UK Health Security Agency.[41][64] 

As of 17 January 2022, BA.2 had been detected in at least 40 countries and in all continents except Antarctica.[49][64]

-

A notable difference between the 'standard' subvariant and BA.2 is that the latter lacks the characteristic S-gene target failure (SGTF)-causing deletion (Δ69-70) by which many qPCR tests are able to rapidly detect a case as an Omicron (or Alpha) variant, from the previously dominant Delta variant.[42][43] Thus, countries that primarily rely on SGTF for detection may overlook BA.2,[42] and British authorities consider SGTF alone as insufficient for monitoring the spread of Omicron.[44] This has resulted in it having been nicknamed 'Stealth Omicron'.[44] 

Because it still can be detected through normal full sequencing, or checks of certain other mutations, the nickname is however inaccurate.[40] Some countries, such as Denmark and Japan, use a variant qPCR that tests for several mutations, including L452R.[45][46] It can also distinguish Delta, which has L452R,[47] and all Omicron sublineages, which do not have L452R.[48][49] The third Omicron sublineage, BA.3, is very rare and it does not represent the same potential problem in detection since it has the SGTF deletion (Δ69-70), similar to BA.1

A look at [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false showing on january 20 global 10% of sequenced cases was BA.2. Outbreak has BA.2 detected in 49 countries. 

France only 16 out of 191,443 samples would have detected BA.2....UK 607 out of 1,755,962 sequences...

DJ, Maybe simply not enough sequencing capacity may be both more realistic-and worse-then a "cover-up"...Real number of daily global infections now +10 million ? India, Brazil etc simply not having the test capacity to even test relevant numbers...

With also discussion of where to "put the stick" for selftesting, nasal testing missing a lot of BA.1 cases...

DJ-AGAIN !!! I am NOT an expert, just trying to understand what is happening, get some perspectives...

Due to timelimits, not lack of news,

End of part 2

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 26 2022 at 7:45am

A description of global insanity....giving up strategies to limit CoViD..."Omicron will save us"...However if Ukraine can not join NATO we "will blow up the world" (UK/US idiots

I am no expert, but this article is why I believe the US and allies are concerned about Ukraine, and it has nothing to do with joining NATO: https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/584646-whats-at-risk-in-ukraine-and-why-it-matters-to-america-and-its

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ViQueen24, [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/a-parthogenetic-conflict-there-is-no-russian-invasion-threat-to-ukraine.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/a-parthogenetic-conflict-there-is-no-russian-invasion-threat-to-ukraine.html 

I-DJ-think the conflict is ALL about NATO moving east against promisses made-by several western leaders around 1990, of NATO sticking to the "Warsaw-pact borders"...

Basicly the article of "thehill" claims without Ukraine in NATO there would be a "new iron curtain"...need for even more military...In fact the article seems to go for "we have to have it our way or else...". As a reminder Russian troops are IN RUSSIA !!!

It is NATO forces at Russian borders, not Russian forces at US borders-yet. No doubt if the US wants it that way-it can be organized...

Russia does not feel safe with NATO/US that close - in Finland, Ukraine, Georgia...would like to talk about that...It is the US that is not willing to talk about Russian safety concerns...

DJ-From an European viewpoint, Russian energy, trade with Iran, China are welcome. EurAsia trade is ESSENTIAL ! for the EU. For that matter there is a competition between the Euro, € and US-energy linked-$. From that EU viewpoint the US is hindering EurAsian trade...

This crisis is only a further escalation of the northstream-2 "problems", the US breaking the Iran-deal. Germany did take the initiative for Nordstream-NOT Russia ! Russia is a major energy producer but China's demand for energy is larger then Russian production. That is why China has all kind of deals with Malaysia, Indonesia, OPEC, Australian coal...

Russia-China do not need the EU, the EU however may need Russia and China...


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ViQueen24, I think most of Europe, the world even, hoped Biden would undo more the damage trump did during his presidency...So now Biden-after one year being US president-worsening even the Ukraine situation created under Obama-is "not very hopefull".

In opinionpolls during the Trump"time" lots of people in Europe did see Trump more as a danger then they did see Putin as a danger. That view may only have gotten worse with Biden not making the major change-in so many ways-people longed for...

A lot of people would agree with "Putin is doing a good job for Russia"...they would not be very positive any longer about the US. 

'NATO is united" as much as the "EU is united"....Germany and France now going for their own route with Russia...

DJ-How to relate this to the pandemic; unity is totally missing...EU now decided a QR-vaccine passport will last for 9 months...(then you may need another booster, or the pandemic is supposed to be over...).

With 1,4 billion population China and India are also pharma-giants...however most of it for domestic use. In the vaccine-virus battle the virus seems to again have the upper hand. Better vaccines expected in spring...but it will take months to have soom level of protection on a global scale at best. 

With countries now lifting restrictions (some claiming the restrictions "did not work"..cases will go up even faster, bringing more (sub)variants...A lot of people have been "limiting social contacts/isolating" for allmost two years and are fed up with the total lack of any serious plan...

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

Global cases as far as being tested/reported; 3,574,242 +8% weekly trend...DJ Global population close to 8 billion so 8 million would be 0,1%...with testing capacity/rules keeping numbers down I think we may be above 0,1% of the global population getting infected per day...

With 10,543 deaths reported we did go over the 10,000 deaths-per-day line, trend +14%..

Middle of the week allways ends up with highest numbers...france must have very extensive testing seeing again such a high number 428,008 new cases (tests 3,4 million per million of population...UK however has 6,5 tpm so testing does NOT explain why France still has these numbers). French trend for cases still +14%....bizarre ! France reporting 258 deaths, +20%...

If there are some variants from France spreading further in Europe, Italy cases -8%, Spain -6%...Germany +60%....Belgium +67%, NL +55%...however "we" may not need France to get cases going up...

Some other European countries with high increase of cases; Slovakia +149%, Russia, Poland both +111%, Ukraine +108%...but also Czechia +78%...they did see high numbers earlier...so "natural immunity", "herd immunity" simply do NOT show up !

Denmark cases 43,719 +48%, deaths 21, +19% DK population 5,8 million...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/denmark/denmark-omicron-ba-1-and-ba-2-risk-assessment-for-january-2022/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/denmark/denmark-omicron-ba-1-and-ba-2-risk-assessment-for-january-2022/  and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/vaccine-breakthrough/denmark-715-covid-deaths-in-the-double-and-triple-vaccinated-607000-breakthrough-infections/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/vaccine-breakthrough/denmark-715-covid-deaths-in-the-double-and-triple-vaccinated-607000-breakthrough-infections/

From a vaccinated population of around 4.7 million people, 715 double and triple vaccinated individuals have died of Covid-19 in Denmark. There were a further 326 deaths in people with a single dose of vaccine, making a total of 1,041 breakthrough deaths.

434,803 people who have received two doses of vaccine have had breakthrough Covid infections, and 105,271 people with booster doses have also had a breakthrough infection. A were a further 67,749 infections in people with a single dose of vaccine, making a total of 607,823 breakthrough infections.

Breakthrough infections are currently running at about 150,000 a week in Denmark.

DJ Both vaccines and "natural" immunity may be doing a lesser job when dealing with BA.2, now dominant in Denmark...BA.2 growing high speed around the globe...could explain only a part of French high numbers that long...

By the way-I was expecting BA.2 would become a Variant Of Concern (VOC) by itself, being renamed, before february 1...I may be wrong there..."everything is Omicron" in the "media"....well it is NOT ! Some Delta subvariants most likely also increasing (a.o. in India...) 

US cases -18%, deaths +18%...48 deaths per million of population in the last 7 days...Brazil, Germany had 12 dpm last 7 days...UK 27.

Speaking of the UK, yesterday cases 102,292 -0,6% 346 deaths -2% both showing an upward trend-most due to BA.2 going up...

Countries like DK, NL, UK (DenmarK, NetherLands, United (okay,...) Kingdom) do drop allmost all restrictions...

We are not seeing 10 million+ cases per day-mainly because we do not have testing capacity for that. India 286,384 cases, +13%, Brazil 219,878 cases, +61% in reality must have much higher numbers...

Israel 76,155 new cases +19%, 25 deaths +51% population 9,3 million yet another indication of where we are going...it is getting a lot worse !

South Africa trends 4,511 cases -23%, 94 deaths -11%  SA testing is limited...BA.2 may not yet be a major factor, summer in SA...

Australia, also summer, cases 54,309 -44%, 105 deaths +30% , 19 deaths per million last 7 days..New Zealand 58 cases +24% no deaths...

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/417[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/417 ; BA.2 branch with the following mutations:
ORF1ab:A2909V (nsp4:A146V) and ORF3a:L140F
Appears to be circulating in multiple SE Asian countries (mainly Japan and Singapore, but also Indonesia, Vietnam and Cambodia).
73 genomes so far. See attached list.
BA2plusORF3L140F.txt

DJ, Japan cases +124%, deaths +211%, Singapore cases +121% deaths +20%, Indonesia cases +245%, deaths +48%, Vietnam cases -4%, deaths -9% (came from high numbers, BA.2 may just be starting there...) Cambodia cases +245 deaths 0%...

Hong Kong cases +580%, deaths still at 0...

music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3VgUCT56vw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3VgUCT56vw Frida Boccara - un Sourire au-delá du Ciel, A smile beyond the sky...love it !

End of part 1

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 26 2022 at 10:40pm

DJ, part 2 news/twitter,

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/articles/news[/url or https://www.thailandmedical.news/articles/news and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/ may provide lots of info...not all peer reviewed, even if peer reviewed studies may turn out "old news" due to high speed changes...








Israel COVID update: Number in hospital at all-time high - New cases: 93,983 - Average: 80,575 (+9,030) - In hospital: 2,311 (+55) - In ICU: 259 (+15) - New deaths: 11 - Average: 22 (-)

Israel is one of the countries with good science, lots of vaccines/boosters...but also a young population and Arabs, Orthodox in a different situation. Still-like France-if Israel is in such a crisis at this time it should be very alarming (cases +19%, deaths +51%).








"Increased BAL cytotoxic T cells linked to epithelial damage & airways disease #COVID causes prolonged change to airway immune landscape in those with persistent lung disease... cell death & tissue repair linked to ongoing activation of cytotoxic T cells."

See also [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-boston-university-discovers-that-vascular-protein-vimentin-assists-sars-cov-2-access-into-cells,-contributing-to-vascular-complications[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-boston-university-discovers-that-vascular-protein-vimentin-assists-sars-cov-2-access-into-cells,-contributing-to-vascular-complications 

DJ-We are now 2 years in this pandemic. Still Media-Experts-Politics go for downplaying the risks, dealing with CoViD-19 as if it was a sort of flu..."boosters will save us"....after vaccines will save us, summer will save us...A good plan, international coordination, good info on vaccines and their risks, may save us...how many million more deaths are needed ? 








Brazil reports 224,567 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record, and 570 new deaths

A "strategy" some countries are thinking of is "stop testing"....As if living with a virus that is killing over 10,000 people per day for years is "reasonable and acceptable"....for what ?








Many lessons we have learned during this pandemic were already properly written down and documented from numerous previous experiences. Us refusing to learn allowing history to repeat even between waves of this pandemic. Scientific evidence wasn't the problem our stubborness is

a next after "stop testing" is "stop science"...it is "only" telling "us" we can not keep destroying the planet...with "us" mainly a small % of rich people with no respect for live... 








Replying to 
Even higher today. The incidence of hospitalization of 0-2-year-olds is now higher than for people 80+ in DK.


Image


Hearthbreaking...so "just ignore it' we have "to live with it", DenmarK (DK) giving up all restrictions...

BA.2 looks to be growing exponentially in England Graph shows percentage of cases that are Spike Gene Target Positive. ~1.5% baseline is things other than BA.2 But growth above this is clear from 15th January, in line with pattern in sequence data This suggests an R-value above 3


Image


UK just one of many...like DK, NL restrictions gone is even higher numbers, more variants....increase of Deltacron as a new variant because some Delta subvariants also widespread and increasing...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/animals/cows/cattle-infected-with-covid/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/animals/cows/cattle-infected-with-covid/ further spread in (farm) animals likely-further effecting the food chain...









Just a quick update on BA.2 in the world. More than 2k BA.2 samples have been uploaded to  just yesterday! Many have come in after I finished downloading yesterday as well, mostly from India and Germany. I will be looking at India seperately later today.

See also [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/417[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/417 on a new BA.2 subvariant-most likely-pushing up numbers even harder in Japan, Singapore...








So yes, by previous criteria they should be separate letters. The problem is practical -- we need to economize on Greek letters -- and political -- Omicron is supposed to somehow "end the pandemic" so the barrier for naming something "Pi" will be very high after that

Giving BA.2 its own name would indicate "Omicron" would NOT be the last variant of concern (VOC), does NOT end this pandemic...so "politics" may go for Omicron-variants for years to come ? Another political alternative however now is dominant; 10,000= deaths per day is "a new normal"....

DJ-Media, Experts, Politics-block are now doing such a bad job they show themselves totally useless and in the way of solutions...Since most military do not want to start yet another war to save bojo, biden, etc. it is time for better politicians to show up. 

New Zealand still doing a good job-even when BA.2 also is detected there...








The "omicron is mild" narrative is so pervasive, I'm now hearing stories of parents of kids who are covid+ deliberately not isolating siblings from them, in the hopes that they get infected so they'll be "done w/ it." Sort of like a chicken pox party. This is NOT a good idea. 1/

Media, "free press guardian, bbc, nos, killing people by going for "save the economy"...still lots of journalists want to do a better job !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 26 2022 at 11:30pm

part 2b...twitter mmmmmmmmm

I ended it with music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kz9LGoY6hVY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kz9LGoY6hVY  Frida Boccara - La Chanson Du Veilleur , The Song of the Watcher...

Ok now this is worrying. Denmark is witnessing an *exponential* rise of hospital admissions. Kids are being hospitalized massively. The world should be screaming.

The world not screaming is a major problem, what does it take to wake up the world ? Over 100,000 deaths per day for CoViD ? Or do we "accept it as a new normal"...even if the pandemic only keeps getting worse..."One day it may become milder"...

But by that time CoViD-19 may have found so many non-human hosts most of us will be gone, the world a nuclear disaster zone if not by war then lack of control on nuclear plants...

Quick Question - Smart Answers Only - Why are deaths STILL surging in South Africa?

DJ...SA deaths statistics -11% in worldometers...OurWorldIn Data other numbers ? 








My latest news is that kids are now getting reinfected within 30 days of their COVID infection...and yes they tested negative in between. If you are a pediatric provider testing at every illness will give you this data. With this virus we can't pretend to know anything . Neutral face

realism, very hard...lots of indications-possibly even being infected with BA.1 may not offer protection against catching BA.2...with lots of other (sub)variants still also around...

The CDC’s 5 day incubation guideline has no scientific basis. For everyone's safety, at home and at work, we should restore a gold standard 14 day isolation around the world. Please sign 's petition.

If we give up science how will we survive ? We give up all we knew about public health from 18th/19th century in the last few decades so "the market" could do its job...

end of part 2b...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 27 2022 at 12:52am

Josh, I have spoken about this issue to Brits, Canadians, French and Italians and we definitely see a threat from Putin and a need to stop his momentum rather than let him fulfill his very nightmarish ambition.

I can't help but notice in a very real sense, you have become the Ukraine of AFT, the buffer between a certain set of people, most of whom (except for me) have largely quit commenting; and another set, who are commenting prolificly, and the tenor of whose comments and insufferable attitudes have sent packing the likes of Edwin,Techno, Carbon and Chuck among  others, and have discouraged the participation of the others who have largely quit commenting.

What happens when everyone abandons the buffer and  leaves it to itself?

Ciao, AFT. Auf Weidersehen, Josh.

I am the DZ Queen, and I approve this message.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 27 2022 at 2:24am

ViQueen24, and interested others,

I am here on this forum trying to make my mind up about-now-this pandemic. I share my opinion, do not have "Absolute truths".

Europe/EU interests are NOT the same as US-or for that matter- Russian and/or Chinese interests...NL needs global trade...second largest agriculture exporter after the US still...We did export gas-may have to limit that due to earthquakes in the north of NL becoming unacceptable...

I believe it would be very welcome to do much more with much less energy...so we do not have to import oil/gas from North Africa-Middle East (NAME), Russia or expensive LNG from the US.

To much dependency in my opinion is the major problem...An EU depending on the US/NATO for security, NAME/Russia for energy is not "making Europe strong". Also not good for a global balance...

I do question why NATO is still there after the Warsaw Pact (formed in reaction to NATO) has gone...would it not have been better to think of something new ? 

"we definitely see a threat from Putin and a need to stop his momentum rather than let him fulfill his very nightmarish ambition."

DJ, In around 1990, German reunification, "the West" did promis Gorbachov NATO would not go east...In my view Putin his ambition is to let NATO keep its promisses...

"you have become the Ukraine of AFT"

DJ, just checked-still very Dutch....I think vaccines still offer good protection-but with Omicron protection is decreasing. I also think vaccines do have risks. I am-for now-against mandatory vaccines because good communications see in many countries over 90% of the people are willing to accept vaccines...

Since vaccines do not stop enough catching/spreading the virus the vaccine-strategy, let vaccinated people spread the virus-has been a disaster...

ViQueen24-are you angry at me ? I notice/read a sense of anger...(wich I do not fully understand, also think I do not deserve...)

The opinions I write down here in my eyes are moderate...try to limit non-sense...We do not have to agree on all points/views...Still most likely you would agree with me dealing with this pandemic does NOT seem to be top of the agenda of global "leaders"...

"commenting prolificly, and the tenor of whose comments and insufferable attitudes"

Maybe one of the reasons why I try to make my points...You can question how far governments can/may go limiting liberties without claiming "governments are nazi's"...Here in NL Jewish organisations-in remembrance of the over 100,000 NL Jews killed by the nazi's - do protest strongly against that kind of language. 

There should be room for disagreement on issues like mandatory vaccinations, vaccines for children, vaccine passports/QR codes (now of very limited use in my idea)....but try to keep it polite, make a point-NOT an insult !

Like in climate change/collapse in this pandemic anti-science seems to be winning...making problems worse...again I try-the best I can-to base my writing on science...

But I no doubt will be wrong from time to time...just doing the best I can...Would love to see Edwin, Techno, Carbon, Chuck and many others return...maybe they will when "it is getting more clear how this pandemic unfolds"...thanks for your reaction ViQueen24 allthough I do not fully understand what you may mean...

DJ


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 27 2022 at 12:00pm

Josh did you see the photos of the young people of Ukraine who have conscripted into their army at short notice? Heartbreaking. They look so young, they have had no/limited training and they may be going up against the Russian army. The whole situation is completely terrifying. 

I think your comments are always reasonable and always polite. I value the posts you make because you are researching and drawing together multiple sources of info that I personally don't have time to do. I also agree with you that we need to be able to express contrary opinions. 

As for people dropping away from the site, yes they have, which is a great shame but a few months ago on here there was tremendous pressure for everyone to sing from the same songsheet, the one that insisted the vaccines were the be it and end all and that they, and they alone would save the world. Thank heavens for the dissenting voices because, as we've seen, the vaccines haven't saved us. They are not perfect, and on their own, they haven't proved to be the outstanding success that we all hoped they would. If only they had been sterilizing vaccines then it would have been a very different story. 

I was listening to a blind comedien on the BBC, and he was saying that he, as a blind person, does not expect or want everything to be blind accessible to him. Not everything can be made blind accessible. He was explaining that as a blind person he can watch a movie and get a special commentary through an earpiece explaining to him the visual treats he's missing, so he can listen to the dialogue of the movie and the sound effects and this commentary over the top, and that in general, this works, he gets the gist of the film and he enjoys it. But it doesn't always work, and yet woke people insist that EVERYTHING must be available for EVERYONE. He said this shouldn't be the case. He went to watch "A quiet place" which as you may know has almost no dialogue and that's the scary part - the fact that you can't make a noise or else these aliens will eat you. He said it was awful, just a running commentary of someone describing what the actors were doing. He got up and left. He went on to say that there were some amazing things that were available to blind people that weren't to sighted people, like braille and extra sensory development, and it would be ridiculous to insist that these also be available to sighted so they "didn't miss out".

And my point here is that perhaps we will end up living in a world where, for the next few years at least, not everything is available to everyone. It's not a nice prospect but it's already been the case for a number of people for years anyway, it's just not publicly known about. I have a cousin who is extremely immuno compromised. The result of her condition has meant that for years now, she can't live a normal life. She has been shielding and taking extra precautions for years, so when Covid came along, she was already geared up for it. Maybe we'll have to accept that vulnerable people may have to take precautions until Covid burns itself out or mutates to not be a threat for them, but it's unrealistic to expect the whole world to suspend life in order to protect these people. 

My cousin is the first to say that her health is her responsibility. I myself have a severe food allergy. I don't expect people to accommodate me over it. In fact, I don't trust them to since my allergy is so severe. So when I go to a dinner party, I find out what the hostess is cooking a produce my own version. I don't make a fuss. I just turn up with my food, put it on one of her plates and eat with everyone else. No one ever notices the switch, and I never discuss my allergy as it makes for a very dull conversation. I just get on and protect myself from a food group that makes me very ill. Perhaps we'll all have to step up, assess our own risks and mitigate against them. 

My cousin has recently recommended some excellent carbon filtered masks that are made in the UK, and on her recommendation I've bought some. We might not need them, but I have them in case we do. Like everyone else on this site, I'm trying to prep ourselves for what may come, and perhaps the rest of the world needs to do so too.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 27 2022 at 1:35pm

kiwiMum, I did read your story on New Zealand strict rules...on the other hand I notice the very major differences between Australia and New Zealand in cases, deaths, numbers...If I had to make a choice between Australia and New Zealand on how the handle the pandemic I would go for New Zealand...

Yes it is unrealistic to see hay fever as CoViD...at home testing can be an extra help-PCR testing however does a better job...

I remember-i believe it was 2020-in the UK unmasked police moving into a house because there was a (false) claim of a party there...Now knowing where at least some of the parties were...the PM...it gives a "very unbalanced view" ...

Living with it-with up to 25% of the people with increased risks now allready limiting themselves...but is Long CoViD an extra risk i think so...

Getting out of this pandemic-if possible-will be painfull...Breaking basic civil rights-as is happening no doubt-should be limited in time...but we can disagree on that...

Again this is a forum, a marketplace for opinions...NOT supposed to have all the same opinion !

I think Russia has a point on NATO NOT moving further east...no one would think of starting World War Three over it...I hope...History gives reasons why Ukraine hates Russia...Both under the Czars and during Stalin millions of Ukrainians were killed. But without forgetting that past we have to move forward...I would welcome a sort of neutral bufferzone in central Europe more then the new cold war because NATO had to move towards the Russian borders...that is my opinion...

We should use LESS oil and gas, so need less of it from a.o. Russia...

Enough to disagree...but I did think that was the goal of a forum...to discuss...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 27 2022 at 3:52pm

Russia certainly wields too much power over the fuel supply to Europe, and Putin knows it. Like so many things recently, we've narrowed down our supply chain for ease and cost saving benefits and we (the Western world) have put all our eggs in one basket. We are now discovering that we don't have many other options for supply. That's worrying.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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