scenario's

Btw Josh, I think that cases are still high and climbing in places like the UK and the numbers being reported are either being manipulated or, more likely, are a reflection of people just not reporting their symptoms or getting tested. They are riding it out at home if they have symptoms and only reporting it if they need medical assistance. It is holiday season and no one wants to spend their hard earned holiday time sitting at home watching daytime TV. Certainly this is what's happening with my friends and relatives there and also on mainland Europe, including my cousins in Northern Holland.

DJ, 

Of course if you need to take a break, go ahead and take one.  I don't blame you for wanting to take a break.  We thank you for your service to all of us here.  I can say that you have been a lifesaver.  It's been a crazy two weeks.  We found out that the filtration system will cost a ton of money.  But the insurance co wants to protect ME and Vicki as well as us.  it is going to be like a clean room at the UNL BIO UNIT.  The whole house is covered.  We don't think the virus is going to get past the filters.  We are hopeful that the sytem is effective as advertised.   Good luck DJ, you have been a joy to us.  

JIll and  Becky 

Short update; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table both global cases and deaths +11%. 

Flutrackers; 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream latest;

On Driving SARS-CoV2 Extinct
Why We Need a Multi-Pronged Approach
Heather Heying
Jul 30

This article is co-authored by Heather Heying and Bret Weinstein. It is very long, and sometimes technical, and not as much fun as a lot of what will be showing up in Natural Selections in the future.

We are at a crossroads. There is a deadly virus circulating and out of control. Many have died, and many more certainly will. We can choose to use all available tools to eradicate this virus, or we can allow it to become a permanent fellow traveler, endemic to humanity. The first option has a high cost, but that cost is finite, largely ending when the disease ends. The second option is much worse. To the cost that we have already paid, add a continuing pattern of suffering and casualties going forward indefinitely. This toll is incalculable. Some have argued that it is already too late—an evolutionary hazard we warned about early in the pandemic—but we have yet to see a compelling argument to support this belief, and until such a case is made we, together, are morally obligated to pursue the eradication of Covid-19.

If we are interested in minimizing harm from SARS-CoV2, we need to use prophylaxis to force extinction. Prophylaxis refers to action taken before exposure to prevent an event. A condom is prophylaxis against pregnancy. Doxycycline is prophylaxis against malaria. Vaccines and repurposed drugs such as ivermectin have both been presented as prophylaxis against Covid-19. In order to clear our planet of SARS-CoV2, we need safe and effective prophylaxis distributed so widely that it drives the virus to extinction.

How we do this is up for debate, and of course there will be disagreement along the way. Some people, including the authors of a recently published Quillette article, see one and only one way forward: vaccination of every person with access to currently authorized vaccines. Other people, including ourselves, believe that the current vaccines—which are non-sterilizing, cannot quickly reach the entire world, and provide only narrow, short-lived immunity—cannot accomplish the goal, not even in principle. Any viable strategy for extinguishing SARS-CoV-2 in the near term must therefore include effective prophylaxis beyond the current crop of authorized vaccines. 

For now that means drugs taken to prevent infection for those who are unvaccinated and who have not had a confirmed case of Covid (and therefore lack natural immunity). It may also require prophylactic medicine for vaccinated people as fading vaccine-induced immunity and new variants evolving in response to the vaccination campaign render the current vaccines ever less effective. ..

DJ-Covid19 not stopped will become an even bigger problem in the coming months. If there is medication to stop viral infection for Covid19 it would be more then welcome ! 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920558-us-surveillance-data-shows-white-tailed-deer-exposed-to-sars-cov-2[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920558-us-surveillance-data-shows-white-tailed-deer-exposed-to-sars-cov-2 latest; One-third of white-tailed deer in the north-eastern United States have antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 — a sign that they have been infected with the virus.

The findings, revealed by an analysis of samples collected after the pandemic began, represent the first detection of widespread exposure to the virus in a population of wild animals, says Arinjay Banerjee, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan in Saskatoon, Canada. The results are reported in a preprint posted on bioRxiv on 29 July¹. They have not yet been peer reviewed.

Researchers say the rapid exposure of a large number of animals to the virus is concerning, but that more studies are needed to assess whether the deer can infect each other — and other species — in the wild. “It’s an intriguing observation but still needs to be interpreted with caution,” says Aaron Irving, an infectious-diseases researcher at Zhejiang University in Haining, China.

The crucial questions are “how the virus spread to deer and if it will spread from infected deer to other wildlife or to domestic livestock such as cattle”, says Linda Saif, a virologist at the Ohio State University in Wooster.

DJ See also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_coronavirus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_coronavirus and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betacoronavirus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betacoronavirus  (DJ Both SARS-2/Covid19 and Bovine/Cow corona are Beta-coronavirus...IF Covid19 spreads to non human host we "have a problem"...).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920807-massachusetts-breakthrough-coronavirus-cases-137-daily-infections-4-daily-hospitalizations-in-recent-weeks-amid-delta-variant[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920807-massachusetts-breakthrough-coronavirus-cases-137-daily-infections-4-daily-hospitalizations-in-recent-weeks-amid-delta-variant ; Massachusetts breakthrough coronavirus cases have been rising rapidly in recent weeks amid the more highly contagious delta variant, but the percentage of fully vaccinated people getting infected remains low and the vaccine is “still doing an amazing job at preventing the most severe illness,” infectious disease experts tell the Herald.

DJ Point is those studies are retrospective-look back in time...may show a slow decrease in vaccine protection...

Some good news ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/920784-dancing-to-music-may-halt-progression-of-parkinson%E2%80%99s-disease[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/920784-dancing-to-music-may-halt-progression-of-parkinson%E2%80%99s-disease !

Music-Ultravox - Dancing With Tears In My Eyes [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSQWUZ8a2Ho[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSQWUZ8a2Ho ; Lyrics: 

Dancing with tears in my eyes 

Weeping for the memory of a life gone by 

Dancing with tears in my eyes 

Living out a memory of a love that died 

Stay safe !

DJ-I put on a "mental welding helmet" limiting myself somewhat from "the heat",

Because where are we ? Here : [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/israel-revives-covid-restrictions-cases-soar-warns-possible-lockdown-september[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/israel-revives-covid-restrictions-cases-soar-warns-possible-lockdown-september ;

Despite being the most heavily vaccinated country in the world, Israel has just imposed new restrictions on its population, and the body responsible for generating its COVID policies just admitted that a lockdown in September is no longer a remote possibility.

Israel's coronavirus cabinet announced Tuesday night that starting Aug. 20, the country will revive its full green pass system. Starting Sunday, masks will be mandatory in all indoor and outdoor gatherings and even fully vaccinated parents responsible for caring for a child in quarantine will be demanded to isolate as well (for children 12 and under).

Israel reported nearly 4K new cases over the previous 24 hours it announced on Tuesday, the biggest daily jump in new cases since March, when the country's vaccination program was still in its infancy. Another 7 people were reported dead from COVID on Monday, bringing the 48 hour death toll to 17, the highest level in four months.

-

Less than a week has passed since the Israeli government announced it would start administering booster shots to people over age 60. And now that at least two European nations have said they're preparing to dole out booster shots, it's only a matter of time before Big Pharma gets its way in the US, leading to more sales for Pfizer and Moderna at newly inflated prices.

DJ (Of course it is ZeroHedge...not taking this worst global crisis ever very serious...). Big Pharma should have been taken over by the governments some months ago...At least by law prices should be regulated. Governments should not wotk for Big Pharma-but both should serve public health...put public health above profit...

-Numbers; With the US yesterday reporting almost 105,000 new cases we did get over the "official" 200 million cases...global deaths +9,962 now above the 4,250,000....I think it is reasonable to put an extra "0" behind all these numbers...So global cases would be at 2 billion, deaths around 42,5+ million-yesterday deaths more close to 90,000 worldwide...If you want to be realistic !

India reporting 42,500+ cases-now mostly related-as far as there is sequencing-to Delta+ ? After being hard hit by Delta in april/may. With limited vaccinations or a chance for NPI the real number also more likely to be at 425,000 new cases per day-if there is still some link between reported cases and reality...

UK had a link, untill recent there was a gap between ZOE-tracker app, ONS, and Government-public health numbers...That gap did explode after reopening. With ZOE/ONS reporting over 60,000 UK cases per day-government cases dropping to almost 1/3 of those numbers...What is the point of testing when a positive result means isolation for 5 or 10 days in holiday season ? And after vaccination often "hay fever like symptoms" ? 

Here in NL we had reopening-cases exploded-but after putting some limits on bars, festivals-increasing vaccinations also in young age groups-in official numbers cases are going down. Just like in the UK hospital cases, deaths are going up. The official Dutch CDC-story is "since cases are going down-hospital cases soon will go down" and the R0 is now at 0,69...We soon will find out how realistic the RIVM/Dutch CDC numbers are...if hospital cases, deaths keep going up we simply did not test a lot of cases...In yesterdays briefing also an increase of imported cases from southern Europe, people returning from holidays there. In the European CDC charts those countries are "red" do not go there-NL government simply changed the colorwarning to green...with an advise to selfisolate/test after return...So cases-certainly after schoolreopening-will explode in NL...

In NL no masks needed except in public transport, bars close at midnight, no major festivals with a crowd of over 750 people...that is about ir...Germany has 1/8-12,5% of the cases NL has (per 100,000)-but there you need FPP-2 masks in most closed spaces...much more restrictions with much less cases...Ventilation in schools in Germany is dealt with by law..in NL it is "strongly advised" but old schools simply do not get the money to do much...have trouble to get enough staff...

After a month ago "dansen met Janssen" get a J&J vaccine today-dance this vening-the rule in NL now is immunity after J&J will be buitlt only after 4 weeks...Both NL and UK "strategies" had the (insane) idea of "creating a peak in young people-with limited symptoms" to limit the peak in autumn/fall-create natural immunity...

Also the general idea in NL "experts" often is "children get less symptoms"...reality is very brutal...Indonesia did see massive numbers of children in hospital, dying...by the thousends...Delta will hit the young very hard ! Our P(roble)M rutte has been looking at the polls, popularity, most in his (lack of) strategy. With "health experts" in positions based on political choices saying this "goverment" the things the government wants to hear...No lie can last forever...(at least that is a nice idea-history shows a lot of lies do last forever !). 

([url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ )

Trends; Global cases +11%, deaths +10% (comparing last week with week before that...);

US cases +41% deaths +33% 

UK cases -20% deaths +13%

India cases +6% deaths +5%

NL cases -44% deaths +33%

Israel cases +71% deaths +278%  (9 last week 34 this week !!!!)

Looking at global trends UK/NL cases dropping like that is NOT realistic ! 

Some "good news"; South America cases -13%, deaths -9%...Lambda variant (Peru) seems to be not a major factor anymore ? (But with hardly any relevant sequencing who knows ?). Bolsonaro may soon face the International Criminal Court in The Hague-NL...one can only hope some other "politicians"will have to show up there soon !

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/920917-nih-lasting-immunity-found-after-recovery-from-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/920917-nih-lasting-immunity-found-after-recovery-from-covid-19 ; The research was funded in part by NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and National Cancer Institute (NCI). Results were published on January 6, 2021, in Science.

The researchers found durable immune responses in the majority of people studied. Antibodies against the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, which the virus uses to get inside cells, were found in 98% of participants one month after symptom onset. As seen in previous studies, the number of antibodies ranged widely between individuals. But, promisingly, their levels remained fairly stable over time, declining only modestly at 6 to 8 months after infection.

Virus-specific B cells increased over time. People had more memory B cells six months after symptom onset than at one month afterwards. Although the number of these cells appeared to reach a plateau after a few months, levels didn’t decline over the period studied.

Levels of T cells for the virus also remained high after infection. Six months after symptom onset, 92% of participants had CD4+ T cells that recognized the virus. These cells help coordinate the immune response. About half the participants had CD8+ T cells, which kill cells that are infected by the virus.

As with antibodies, the numbers of different immune cell types varied substantially between individuals. Neither gender nor differences in disease severity could account for this variability. However, 95% of the people had at least 3 out of 5 immune-system components that could recognize SARS-CoV-2 up to 8 months after infection.

“Several months ago, our studies showed that natural infection induced a strong response, and this study now shows that the responses last,” Weiskopf says. “We are hopeful that a similar pattern of responses lasting over time will also emerge for the vaccine-induced responses.”

DJ-I would love to believe in long term immunity after (natural) immunization/infection. However-the data in this study is from 2020. Since then Brazil, UK, India, Israel etc. may have seen a lot of reinfection cases.  

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/further-communications/920916-major-vaccine-%E2%80%98fact-checker%E2%80%99-funded-by-group-headed-by-former-cdc-director-with-1-9b-in-j-j-stock[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/further-communications/920916-major-vaccine-%E2%80%98fact-checker%E2%80%99-funded-by-group-headed-by-former-cdc-director-with-1-9b-in-j-j-stock DJ-Profit/greed/shareholders have been a main factor in "pandemic strategies" often more then public health ! Greed as a main disease...how can you allow pandemic-profits ? 

DJ-Lots of countries (Japan, Pakistan, US etc) now reporting hospitals/ICU's at limits. In vaccinations EU and Canada (UK, Israel, China) over 50% of population fully vaccinated...US still-in some reports-just under 50% fully vaccinated. But Delta means vaccinations going up there as well. (Here in NL also planned vaccinations for this week are included in the vaccine-statistics. Most vaccines offer protection after 2nd vaccination + 2 to-older/vulnareble 3 weeks. J&J may take 4 weeks. UK, Germany, Israel going for third-booster-vaccine. Other countries very likely to follow-but you can only go for large scale third vaccination when enough people at least had two vaccinations...and for the US getting enough people for the second vaccination is still a struggle...).

Also both China and Australia are doing everything they can to get a grip on Delta...China cases still +55%, Australia cases +37% indicate strict lockdowns, travel restrictions, lots of testing may not do the job...(yet ?)

- Dr. John Campbell on vaccines recommended in pregnancy [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrukfMGlulE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrukfMGlulE  DJ-Lots of info under the video-not much on pregnancies as far as I see...Was in the news 20x more chance of dying for pregnant women with Delta...so very bad outlook. 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnJTNtU2Zuc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnJTNtU2Zuc Dr. Mike Hansenwith a short <10 min-week old-video on Delta variant; 

What’s different about DELTA Variant Patients? The delta variant is almost like a whole new COVID virus, as it behaves very differently from the previous COVID strains.

 It has at least three mutations on its spike protein, and more specifically, on its receptor-binding domain. That’s the part of the spike protein that binds to the ACE2 receptor on the cells in your body. 

The delta variant’s mutations help it bind more efficiently to the ACE2 receptor and allow the virus to enter the cell more easily. 

Also, its mutations allow it to better evade the body’s immune system.

DJ New variants opened another chapter in the pandemic book. Delta may be controlable with both vaccines and NPI-but we have allready failed there...using often less then 50% fully vaccinated population as a basis for reopening...an act of total insanity !

[url]https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD[/url] or https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD  and [url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing also good info...

-Music-Let the music play ! I want to dance the night away !-Barry White 1976 long version [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7b5vyUM-L1M[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7b5vyUM-L1M 

Stay safe !

Laptop seems to be doing its own thing today...  !

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vv9IEBa2B14[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vv9IEBa2B14 Dr. John Campbell on vaccinations in children. 

DJ-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/920998-cidrap-long-covid-19-rare-in-children-study-says[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/920998-cidrap-long-covid-19-rare-in-children-study-says ; Researchers from King's College London used the UK ZOE COVID Symptom Study app from September 2020 to February 2021, coinciding with the reopening of schools, to look at 1,734 children 5 to 17 who had parents or caretakers logging possible symptoms.

DJ Looking at september 20-february 21 statistics may give a wrong picture with Delta. All studies now indicate children get infected and spread Covid 19 as much as adults...they only-so far-did not get ill. Delta is different...one can look at India-april, Indonesia...several other countries....Or find out the hard way...

I am going to feed my laptop some coffee-maybe take some coffee myself as well...

Music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boeZOAX_dwY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boeZOAX_dwY Electric Light Orchestra (E.L.O.) - 1975 - Can't Get It Out Of My Head....

The world seems to be well on its way to a third peaking of case numbers. The seven day moving average is closing in on the first peak seen in January this year.  

The average for deaths, as a lagging indicator, is well lagging behind, but it is still rising.  

DJ, 

-Numbers-trends are a bit more interesting then the daily numbers. Still yesterdays 570,000+ new cases, 9,027 reported deaths is allready high for a weekend. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table ; glonal cases +5%, deaths +4%.

For the US cases +24%, deaths +36%, UK cases -2% (only), deaths +28%, NL claiming cases -32%, deaths +29%...DJ-Again-both NL and UK are simply not testing enough people...want to miss cases. Germany cases +27%, deaths -21%, France cases +6%, deaths + 29%...but in general the picture looks very mixed...some countries report explosion of cases, while other-nearby-countries report strong decrease of cases/deaths...I think Israel may give a realistic picture of what most western countries may expect; cases +59% last week 14,620 cases-this week cases went up to 23,308 cases...on a population of 9,3 million. Deaths even more alarming +313% ! Israel did see 15 deaths last week, 62 this week...

There is discussion on how much more deathly the Delta-variant is. A higher viral load means more people catch viral parts...If you catch a high viral load you-even with vaccination-have a "stronger viral invasion" to deal with...Yes-vaccines will help but the higher viral load still is an issue ! But also much more people getting ill with limited hospital capacity means Delta is more deathly ...There is limited room at ICU, limited ventilators, limited, exhausted staff...More HCW-ers may get infected...and they are human beings...not robots !

Each monday this month schools will restart in some regions, countries...often with limited ventilation, children NOT vaccinated, a lot of imported variants...International air travel in many places is almost at pre-pandemic levels-while new variants are popping up...

Those vaccines were good for Big Pharma profits...but simply have NO use if governments use them this insane way !

S T O P   T H E   S P R E A D   ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 

-Flutrackers etc. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/921246-china-as-of-august-7-there-are-7-high-risk-areas-and-197-medium-risk-areas-across-the-country-one-doctor-tests-negative-7-times-before-a-positive-result-yangzhou-urgently-asks-for-help-august-8-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/921246-china-as-of-august-7-there-are-7-high-risk-areas-and-197-medium-risk-areas-across-the-country-one-doctor-tests-negative-7-times-before-a-positive-result-yangzhou-urgently-asks-for-help-august-8-2021 ; (Original title: Re-accountability! Nine people in Nanjing have been dealt with! Zhengzhou just notified that 1 doctor diagnosed, and the first 7 nucleic acids were negative! Yangzhou Guangling urgently asks for help: N95 masks and other anti-epidemic materials are urgently needed! Many students in Yangzhou are infected)
Zhengzhou: Start the third round of full-staff testing! The strictest prevention and control! The number of closed and controlled communities in Wuhan increased to 157

DJ China does not joke with this pandemic. I do not know if vaccinations are mandatory but it is simply a civil duty to get vaccinated...(and that has nothing to do with "communism" but a lot with "sense for community" , just like masks wearing...East Asia has other idea's on individualism then the west...by tradition. )

Both China cases +56 % last week 433, this week 675, 0 deaths, and Australia cases +39% last week 1,375 this week 1,915 deaths +88% from 8 to 15...Australia population is 25,8 million...have strict regulations...limited numbers compared to most other countries but face serious problems getting Covid/Delta under control. 

See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/921245-china-huai-an-officials-issue-an-emergency-ban-declaring-a-total-ban-on-live-poultry-trading-jiangsu-province-august-7-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/921245-china-huai-an-officials-issue-an-emergency-ban-declaring-a-total-ban-on-live-poultry-trading-jiangsu-province-august-7-2021 ;

In order to conscientiously implement the deployment of the Provincial Party Committee, the Municipal Party Committee and the Municipal Government on the prevention and control of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic and the "Emergency Notice of the Provincial Party Committee Office and the Provincial Government Office on the Prevention and Control of the New Coronavirus Pneumonia Epidemic" (Su Office of the People’s Republic of China (2020) No. 10), “Notice of the Municipal Party Committee Office and Municipal Government Office on Establishing a Working Mechanism for Joint Prevention and Control of Pneumonia Epidemics Infected by New Coronavirus” (Huaiban Chuan (2020) No. 10), and “The Municipal Patriotic and Health Association's Notice on Issuing The "Huai'an City's Implementation Plan for the Implementation of the Patriotic Sanitation Campaign" (Huaiaiwei [2021] No. 3) requires that people’s lives, health and safety be effectively guaranteed. 

With the consent of the municipal government, from now on, the city’s urban built-up area farmer’s market , It is strictly forbidden to sell live poultry in the market and slaughter live poultry on site, and prohibit illegal wildlife trading .

Operators who are still selling live poultry in the market and slaughtering live poultry after the issuance of this notice shall be ordered to stop their operations immediately; those who refuse to stop their operations shall be investigated and dealt with in accordance with the law; if a crime is constituted, they shall be transferred to the public security organs in accordance with the law.

DJ The Flutrackers link mention a lot of flutypes...the article mention corona-rules to stop live poultry trade...Was there some Covid variant detected in poultry ? Or is the new rule related to flu-types ? China also sticks to the story of viral spread via frozen goods...

The west did ignore news from China early 2020-then blamed China for not being "open"...Well they do not speak English as a national language in most of China...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917728-uk-more-than-50-of-deaths-from-delta-variant-are-in-the-vaccinated?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917728-uk-more-than-50-of-deaths-from-delta-variant-are-in-the-vaccinated?view=stream latest;  It should be noted that this data covers a time period from when very few people had been vaccinated to when there was excellent coverage in the higher risk groups so it is difficult to draw meaning from it.

Looking in a little more detail you can see a fairly rapid change from Alpha to Delta VOC dominance occurred at the beginning of May (figure 5 page 22). In the over 50s vaccine coverage is currently about 90% and, as the under 50s started to be offered shots mid July, most of the older group will have had two shots by the time Delta achieved dominance.

Going back to the table 5 data we can see in the over 50s 389 deaths in the fully vaccinated and 205 deaths in the vaccinated. But as there are 9 times as many vaccinated as unvaccinated we need to multiply 205 by 9 giving 1845 showing a little under 5 times the death rate for the unvaccinated.
The maths is more complicated for 'All cases' without a breakdown by age group and vaccination status but we do have usable data for the high risk group.

Table 4 gives the deaths for Alpha (over 50s - 4.8%, all cases - 1.1%) and Delta (2%, 0.2%) which seems to show Alpha to be far more lethal but is probably more a reflection of the overall vaccine coverage at the time each was dominant.

DJ Statistics do by now get very complicated ! Since most people in many countries (certainly the +50 often +40 y/o age groups) are vaccinated we soon may get a more realistic picture on how good the different vaccines work out. But another factor is are you vaccinated in an area with 20% vaccinations-so a lot of variants spread-or in an area with 80% vaccination ? 

Un unvaccinated person in an area with 80%+ vaccinations may be-I guess-just as safe as if he/she had been vaccinated...A vulnarable older person in an area with just 20% vaccinations may only see very limited benefit from the vaccine...

You may have "herd immunity" but I think there is also a sort of "herd protection" factor...The more vaccinations in an area the more safe you will be...

Also from the UK [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/921086-uk-cat-deaths-toxic-cat-foods-suspected[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/921086-uk-cat-deaths-toxic-cat-foods-suspected latest; Feline Pancytopenia Update

Published: 02 Aug 2021 | Last Updated: 02 Aug 2021 08:20:52

Last updated - Monday 2nd August 2021

The RVC is aware of 528 cats that are known to us based on cases treated at our own hospitals and information provided by some vets in the UK. Of these there was 63.5% mortality at time of reporting.

NB. This data probably represents only a percentage of cases, as many cats may not be presented to a veterinary practice and/or investigated by a vet. Only a small percentage of the vets in the UK are actively reporting to the RVC at this time.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pancytopenia[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pancytopenia ; 

Iatrogenic causes of pancytopenia include chemotherapy for malignancies if the drug or drugs used cause bone marrow suppression. Rarely, drugs (antibiotics, blood pressure medication, heart medication) can cause pancytopenia. For example, the antibiotic chloramphenicol can cause pancytopenia in some individuals.^[1]

Rarely, pancytopenia may have other causes, such as mononucleosis or other viral diseases. Increasingly, HIV is itself a cause of pancytopenia.

So is this somehow linked to Covid ? We know cats can catch the virus, if thet get ill symptoms are mild, cold like was the idea...No doubt there will be more studies ! Also-in general-as far as I know-cats get Covid from their humans...not very likely from non-human hosts/other cats...We need to learn more !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/921232-seven-residents-of-belgian-nursing-home-die-after-outbreak-of-b-1-621-lineage-of-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/921232-seven-residents-of-belgian-nursing-home-die-after-outbreak-of-b-1-621-lineage-of-covid-19 ; Seven residents of a nursing home in Belgium have died after being infected with a lineage of the coronavirus first detected in Colombia despite being fully vaccinated, the virology team that conducted tests said on Friday.

The virology team said the residents had been infected with the B.1.621 lineage of COVID-19 that originated in Colombia and has been detected in recent weeks in the United States but cases in Europe have been rare.

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has listed the B1.621 lineage as part of the Kappa variant of the coronavirus, but not as a variant itself.

The seven people who died at the nursing home in the Belgian town of Zaventem, near Brussels, were all in their 80s or 90s, and some of them were already in a poor physical condition, said Marc Van Ranst, a virologist at the University of Leuven which conducted tests on the virus found at the nursing home.

-

A visitor probably at the origin of the detected outbreak

A visitor is probably behind the outbreak of coronavirus detected at the Ter Burg rest and care home in Zaventem, where seven vaccinated residents died after contracting the virus, the Flemish Health Care Agency said on Friday.

"The person in question was asymptomatic. She had visited the nursing home a few days before performing a positive test," explains the agency door Ria Vandenreyt. "The first contamination - the visitor's contact - occurred in the first half of July," she continues. “The high-risk contacts of the first infected resident were immediately quarantined and tested.” The affected department accommodates people with dementia, making quarantine difficult. When it emerged that there were multiple infections, the facility rolled out testing and isolation. "A total of 21 residents and seven staff members were infected.

-

A variant "to follow"

The two Belgian scientists therefore wanted to be reassuring about the dangerousness of the "Colombian variant" (it has not yet received an official name). "It seems unlikely to me that it is stronger than the delta, " said Marc Van Ranst. " According to British research, there is no reason to believe that it is more contagious, pathogenic or fatal. " The virologist still called to keep an eye on the mutation. The WHO has also classified it in the category of "to follow" variants.

What do we know about its presence in Belgium?

If the variant was detected for the first time in January in Colombia, it was not until June that it entered our territory. Twenty outbreaks of contamination have been observed since then, which remains a lower figure compared to what is happening in countries such as the United States or the United Kingdom where the Colombian variant is more widespread.

DJ One asymptomatic person introduced the Colombia-variant into the nursing home. The seven people that died often were not very healthy-but all fully vaccinated ! In total 21 persons in the care center did get infected. Very limited numbers...but simply not good news ! When did the seven people that died get vaccinated-could protection have been decreasing ? What is know of other Colombia-variant cases ? (And why some of the Colombia-variant findings are put with the Kappa-India variant ? Should the Colombia variant be seen as a further mutation of the Kappa variant ? Could Kappa variant mutate in more regions this way ? [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Kappa_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Kappa_variant  is detected in +55 countries...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/913781-covid-19-vaccine-dangers-side-effects-controversy?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/913781-covid-19-vaccine-dangers-side-effects-controversy?view=stream latest; Dr. John Campbell addresses the issue of vaccinators not aspirating prior to injection to be sure they are not doing vascular injection. Aspiration is usually SOP when doing injections. People with medical experience notice this right away. In the US, they are being told NOT to aspirate injecting the vaccines. I read that this is because it would take too much time and that aspirating can be painful. (Not if you don't wiggle a needle in someone's vein.)
Some think that intravascular injections could be the cause of rare side effects.

DJ Dr.J.C. simply is very correct at this point ! He did get very angry over the stupidity of how vaccinations sometimes are done...not at the right spot, not checking if a blood vessel was hit...A lot of the problems with vaccinations could be related to how the "job/jab" is done !

[url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing ; we need to mask kids in school damnit. The #DeltaVariant is a clear and present danger to kids now. Hospitalization numbers don’t lie.

-

Why the hell is Texas stopping contact tracing and reporting of cases to parents during this epic surge of #DeltaVariant in the South? Makes zero sense.

DJ Is the US on its way to another "India-scenario" ? 

[url]https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD[/url] or https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD Also good on calculations etc...

-Dr. John Campbell on long Covid in children [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hqc_Dzx9P2Y[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hqc_Dzx9P2Y 

Music ; Into Each Life Some Rain Must Fall - Ella Fitzgerald & The Inkspots [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJ9IaplRrm4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJ9IaplRrm4 

"The problem with bad news is nobody wants to hear it"...

DJ-I can not think no one else did think of such a line...Now I did think of it as well ! Love it ! 

And of course...more then enough bad news...the IPCC report...basically not that much news in it-Paris climate treaty was in 2015-"we" made it worse since then...

This pandemic fits as well-"we" know what to do, just do not do it...

-Numbers-because counting is the basis of controlling !!! That is why numbers were invented over 6,000 years a go !

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ global cases for monday-august 9-reflecting limited testing the day before...almost 525,000 with 8,042 deaths...proberbly the "lowest point" in the weekly numbers...

US +100,000 tested, reported cases. Indonesia 1,475 deaths...Iran over 40,000 cases, Russia 769 deaths...

Trends; Cases +5%, deaths +3%...UK now at cases +6%, deaths +15%, NL cases -20%, deaths +50% (28 to 40 this week)...

People will take a test when they need medical care...the "decrease of cases" was false statistics ! People only show up later for testing-often when "hay fever like symptoms" get worse,,,so hospital cases will go up...

Israel cases up +58% 26,733 new cases last 7 days...deaths went from 26 to 72 last week +177%, over 10 deaths per day on a population of 9,3 million...Israel is maybe ahead of most other western countries a month, two months...

So what is happening in Israel will be happening where you live next month...with most likely less vaccinations, more wearher, urban factors making the outcome worse-not better. 

US cases +31%, deaths +34% ...

The US had 11 deaths per million last 7 days, UK 9, Israel 8, NL 2...The British Virgin Islands would have had 197 dpm last week...on a population of just over 30,000...translating to 6 deaths ....For all of this pandemic Peru still has most dpm...5,885 per million=0,5885% of its population...Of course a lot of countries do not report realistic numbers...India claiming 307 dpm...a total of 428,715 deaths...

If you would go for the Peru % on India population (so 0,5885% on 1,394,375,829 India population) you end up at 8,209,433 India deaths...To be honest-that number proberbly is more realistic...but "bad news no one wants to hear..."

To keep numbers simple-if you put global population at 8 billion then 0,5% of them would be 40 million..almost 10x the "official deaths" statistic for this pandemic...Spanish Flu killed between 2 and 5% of global population=160 to 400 million...Growth per year of global population could be something like 80 million..(EdwinSm came up with that number...so proberbly correct..good info !)

Can we get global population reduction = can number of deaths + children not born go over 80 million per year ? I think the answer is "yes"...with proberbly most of the reduction in less children being born...also aging is a factor. The global number of women able to give birth may decrease...(and a hard part is pregnant women catching Covid I believe have 20X more chance to end up at ICU...). 

-Flutrackers etc...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021?view=stream latest; UK cases now +5,2%, deaths +14,8% hospital admission going down (for now) -15,8%, testing -5,6..

DJ Cases going up while testing is going down is "not a good sign"...

Again; this month, early september, schools will reopen...unvaccinated children mixing variants...infecting eachother, teachers/staff, (grand)parents and othe family..."We' could stop it, should stop it but do NOT stop it...

Just like [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina a disaster you can see is coming...but nobody seems to be responsible...

Flutracker full of US stories of ICU, ECMO's running out, cases going up in care centers...The southern US is "in" for an "India-Delta-scenario" ....do not blame the unvaccinated but blame the failing political system putting economy first...killing people AND destroying the economy ! 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/921325-israel-serious-cases-swell-we%E2%80%99re-at-a-morbidity-level-where-countless-sick-people-are-walking-around-outside[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/921325-israel-serious-cases-swell-we%E2%80%99re-at-a-morbidity-level-where-countless-sick-people-are-walking-around-outside ; As Serious Cases Swell, Israel's COVID Contact-tracing Can't Keep Up

Some 10,000 new cases were reported over the past three days, with epidemiological investigations conducted on only 40 percent of them. The military's contact-tracing center is short-staffed after cuts were made since the peak of the COVID pandemic

Ido Efrati
Aug. 9, 20
...

“The Health Ministry never held a thorough discussion about the system’s goals in principle and the question of whether it’s an effective tool in such a widespread outbreak,” one senior public health expert said. There are differences of opinion about this, he added, and many experts say that at this stage, contact tracing has become pointless.

“It’s an effective tool at the beginning of an outbreak, when you’re trying to contain it and delay its spread, but that’s not the situation right now,” he said.

“We’re at a morbidity level where countless sick people are walking around outside. Many aren’t required to quarantine, and others are required to but don’t obey the regulations. In the current situation, the benefits of this entire process are extremely limited.”

DJ Again Israel may be in a scenario where "we" may be in next month..."countless sick people walking around" trying to convince themselves it is "just hay fever like symptoms".....and no healthcare available anymore...

One of the "crisis management points" that did go very very wrong was communications ! Not only politics but also a lot of experts did a very bad job at this ! Yes-The R0 may have been under 1...but those numbers always are two weeks old-at best...Delta(+) like variants mean you have to get the R0 as close to 0 the best you can....R0 <1 was no basis for reopening ! Utter stupidity !!!

If YOU are an expert-with 10+ years university/experience and YOU come up with this kind of crap YOU did fail !!!!!

YOU were supposed to be protecting us from this pandemic ! Do a better job or find another job !

Arrogance can kill ! Another act of total stupidity ; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latest; The U.S. government’s top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, said Sunday that he was hopeful the Food and Drug Administration will give full approval to the coronavirus vaccine by month’s end and predicted the potential move will spur a wave of vaccine mandates in the private sector as well as schools and universities.

The FDA has only granted emergency-use approval of the Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines, but the agency is expected to soon give full approval to Pfizer.

DJ; STOP THE SPREAD !!! Stop international air travel, stop cruise ships, stop opening schools ! If "experts" only answer is "more vaccines" those "experts" are blind ! They are pushing for vaccine escape, a resistent variant of Covid-19/SARS-2 able to reinfect hosts over and over again ! 

Here in NL over 90% of the population is willing to be vaccinated...For vaccinations we may by now be in the global top ! Even if you would look at (limited) statistics if you would include 12 y/o+ age group still you may end up at 90%+ of the NL population willing to accept vaccines to "get out of this pandemic"...The population may not be the problem but "the leaders" may be the problem...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/921251-risk-of-rapid-evolutionary-escape-from-biomedical-interventions-targeting-sars-cov-2-spike-protein[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/921251-risk-of-rapid-evolutionary-escape-from-biomedical-interventions-targeting-sars-cov-2-spike-protein ;

With the emergence of new strains of SARS-CoV-2 with altered transmissibility and immune evasion potential, a critical question is this: how easily can the virus escape neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) targeting the spike RBD? To answer this question, we combined an analysis of the RBD structure-function with an evolutionary modeling framework. Our structure-function analysis revealed that epitopes for RBD-targeting nAbs overlap one another substantially and can be evaded by escape mutants with ACE2 affinities comparable to the wild type, that are observed in sequence surveillance data and infect cells in vitro. 

This suggests that the fitness cost of nAb-evading mutations is low. 

We then used evolutionary modeling to predict the frequency of immune escape before and after the widespread presence of nAbs due to vaccines, passive immunization or natural immunity. 

Our modeling suggests that SARS-CoV-2 mutants with one or two mildly deleterious mutations are expected to exist in high numbers due to neutral genetic variation, and consequently resistance to vaccines or other prophylactics that rely on one or two antibodies for protection can develop quickly -and repeatedly- under positive selection. 

Predicted resistance timelines are comparable to those of the decay kinetics of nAbs raised against vaccinal or natural antigens, raising a second potential mechanism for loss of immunity in the population. Strategies for viral elimination should therefore be diversified across molecular targets and therapeutic modalities.

DJ Translation; With only a few small-very likely-mutations variants may be evading vaccine (and natural) immunity ....Proberbly allready happening-we just do not want to see it ! It would show the "vaccinations for reopening-strategy" to be a total disaster !!!

With yesterday als ADE in natural immunity; antibodies (1 in 5 investigated) in stead of fighting the virus HELPING !!! the virus I only can repeat; S T O P  T H E   S P R E A D   ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 

You can vaccinate till you drop but that will not stop this pandemic, most likely by now encourage vaccine escape, resistent variants !

Utter stupidity...I have to calm down....

DJ-Is there "good news"? YES !!! There is !! Hebrew University-Jerusalem looking into lots of medications and its effect on Covid19-they did find 8 medicins that look promissing ! If you have effective treatment (maybe Ivermectin may play a role ?) to treat the infected, stop disease Covid19 could become less deathly...but time is running out !

We did see-in official statistic undercounting-2 million deaths in 2020, 2 million deaths first 6 months of 2021...second 6 months of this year could bring 4 million deaths...going exponential would see 8 million deaths in 2022, 16 million in 2023, 32 million in 2024 "as a new normal" ? Living with the virus ? PLEASE !

[url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 ; "Dr Fauci has sounded the alarm over Covid and children amid a surge in hospitalisations, & warned that “kids are getting sick” from the Delta variant." Other countries taking the threat of delta to children seriously while the UK remains in denial.

DJ On twitter there are a lot of experts doing a very good job, shouting from the rooftops..."the problem with bad news is nobody wants to hear it"....

Dr Been on Delta [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZ-he8aq0qs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZ-he8aq0qs  as always-good info ! 

-Other news [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/historic-russian-troops-enter-china-for-joint-exercises-stated-purpose-bring-down-american-arrogance[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/historic-russian-troops-enter-china-for-joint-exercises-stated-purpose-bring-down-american-arrogance  and 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_1CRiW5lCw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_1CRiW5lCw  (Pepe Escobar may be included as well...) DJ-Russia, China, Iran have had enough of talking/insults from the US/NATO...they are preparing for war. Have put red lines...no US weapons for Taiwan, no US/Israel attacks on Iran...No NATO near Crimea...No other coups in Belarus, Venezuela, Cuba, etc...

"The west" is divided. NATO second largest army-after the US is that from Turkey...Turkey is working with Russia in developing the S500 air defense system, Turkey has a good relation with Iran...both a form of agreement on the Kurds...(long term ally of the Kurds has been Russia-not the US ! NATO helped both Turkey and Iran under the sjah-before 1979-in their genocide of the Kurds...). 

The EU may be willing to "follow the US" hoping to bridge gaps while also buying Russian energy, Chinese goods...

DJ-In my view; The EU should make it VERY CLEAR to the US that the "confrontation strategy" , endless US wars and coups-have to end !!! Democrazy is in the interest of the 0,1%...democracy is in the interest of all....

Music ; Dione Warwick - 1968 - Do You Know The Way To San Jose ? [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqWt49o7R-k[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqWt49o7R-k    ...We are lost at this moment, have to refind ourselves...

On deaths you missed Tanzania with +138% in one day.   Actually, one cannot read too much in the figures because early on the skeptical leader, John Magufuli , stopped all reporting of cases.  It has taken months since his death for the new President, Samia Suluhu Hassan, to be in a political situation to reverse that policy.   It seems that she has been working on other aspects of the pandemic first, like ramping up the  vaccination programme [from the end of last month: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57996155  ]

My guess is that the increase reported by worldometers [ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  ] (+350 cases and +29 deaths) is just the current testing capacity and there may not be the political will to publish back dated results (if the cases were even recorded).

I bet there are plenty of domestic cats and dogs who have it. In our family we all kiss our cats and dogs. I even have a cow I kiss. I draw the line at kissing chickens.  

There must be plenty of people out there like me, so if they have it, they'll give it to their animals, who'll give it to all their furry friends, and round and round it'll go. There's no way the Fun Police will be able to police that. 

Dutch Josh, 

I can only say that you have done your homework.  Impressive work shown.  A few observations,  I have been hearing reports from my doctors that a new variant that may increase the death rate by 50 - 80 % and destroy the protections that vaccines provide.  I have to agree with the sentiment that the system has failed us in large part because the political will is not there.  Our leaders want us dead.  They want to reduce the population thru disease and starvation.  BoJo, Biden and Jinping want us dead.  

I think there is a big difference between lack of political will and actively wanting us dead.  I do not believe even Trump was so evil that he wanted us dead. I also don't think its fair to blame Biden so much.  He has made mistakes for sure, and needs to course-correct, but let us not forget that this virus had about a year's head start while Trump sat on his thumb saying it will go away in the spring/by magic/if we drink-inject bleach.  Biden has always been playing catch-up.

I believe if we weren't so divided -- if almost everybody believed like during polio that it was their civic and patriotic duty to get the vax, and if masking wasn't opposed by so many (¡RiGhTs!  ¡FrEeDoMs!), then there would be next to nobody for the DeSantises, the Pauls, the Taylor Greenes, the McConnells of the world to egg on and draw support from.  And if you look at history, almost universally you have leaders that underestimate the potency of the pandemic and don't take appropriate measures.  People have normalcy bias, and they can't believe that about every 100 years, we have to deviate from normal for a few years so that a tiny microbe doesn't kill us all.  Some of our leaders are in the political game to help, or at least some start out that way.  Most of them are in it because they get off on trading money for power they can wield, and then they just want more and more.  We are not important enough to them for them to want to kill us off.  In their most honest moments, they may resent that they need us, and that they have to spend time and money placating us.  But mostly, we're that thing that pays the taxes, that b*tches to/about them when we don't get enough of what we need/want, that has to be manipulated one way or the other to get us to vote for them or their agenda, that they have to write and perform sappy speeches for, about values, and the things they're allegedly going to do for us.  Take it from this chick, who used to be "that thing that gets the coffee", after being "that thing that cleans our house, sells the cosmetics, babysits the kids, sells the piano-player's merchandise, gets food for the old people, gets our donuts".  That's all we are to them.

If you think about it, they have alot in common with Covid.  We are the hosts, they are living and feeding off of us.  They certainly don't want to kill too many of us.  Wouldn't be prudent, as the senior George Bush used to say.    But individually, they don't even know we exist.  We're just blocs of voters to them.

DJ, 

-[url]https://www.findlaw.com/criminal/criminal-rights/the-different-degrees-of-guilt.html[/url] or https://www.findlaw.com/criminal/criminal-rights/the-different-degrees-of-guilt.html One can also look at the sort of (in)action and the outcome...in Brazil bolsonaro is much closer to [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide  some other western "leaders" [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criminal_negligence[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criminal_negligence . NOT protecting a nation against a known and certain danger is a crime. 

[url]https://ginnymooy.com/2021/08/10/tijd-om-te-gaan-leven-met-het-virus/[/url] or https://ginnymooy.com/2021/08/10/tijd-om-te-gaan-leven-met-het-virus/ a NL comment (translate works fine !) on [url]https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/jul/25/spike-the-virus-v-the-people-review-sage-scientists-revelatory-covid-memoir[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/jul/25/spike-the-virus-v-the-people-review-sage-scientists-revelatory-covid-memoir "experts in a political role" going against science... Also on how each country goes for its own science ignoring foreign findings that do not fit in the "national story"...There is no such thing as "objective science" . 

DJ-I find this pandemic important enough to keep writing about it...Others see it as an old story...Here in NL schools will reopen with no masks, not good ventilation often, no social distance and most students not yet vaccinated..."Restaurants were allready open...we have footballmatches with a crowd...so it is about time schools reopen !" . This kind of "logic" keeps the virus out of the story...in Germany with much less cases there are much more restrictions...

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ global 713,000+ of wich 143,000+ in the US...both numbers have been higher ( 900,000+ and 300,000+ ) and soon will be at record levels again...

Trends [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table ; global cases +4%, deaths +3% ...testing is getting more and more problematic...we may be missing most of the cases by now because of a very high level of asymptomatic spread. With that sequencing is even a bigger problem...we simply-by now-may have no idea what variants are increasing/decreasing...A very limited % of cases see sequencing and if we miss most of the cases we are "riding in thick fog"...

-Flutrackers latest;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/921618-durability-of-mrna-1273-vaccine%E2%80%93induced-antibodies-against-sars-cov-2-variants[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/921618-durability-of-mrna-1273-vaccine%E2%80%93induced-antibodies-against-sars-cov-2-variants ; 

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 mutations may diminish vaccine-induced protective immune responses, particularly as antibody titers wane over time. Here, we assess the impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.351 (Beta), P.1 (Gamma), B.1.429 (Epsilon), B.1.526 (Iota), and B.1.617.2 (Delta) on binding, neutralizing, and ACE2-competing antibodies elicited by the vaccine mRNA-1273 over seven months. Cross-reactive neutralizing responses were rare after a single dose. At the peak of response to the second vaccine dose, all individuals had responses to all variants. Binding and functional antibodies against variants persisted in most subjects, albeit at low levels, for 6-months after the primary series of the mRNA-1273 vaccine. Across all assays, B.1.351 had the lowest antibody recognition. These data complement ongoing studies to inform the potential need for additional boost vaccinations.

https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abj4176

DJ Problem with this kind of studies is they are retrospective...have to look back on already past events...We are getting-very likely-closer to vaccine evasive variants. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/921617-hospital-acquired-sars-cov-2-infection-in-the-uk-s-first-covid-19-pandemic-wave[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/921617-hospital-acquired-sars-cov-2-infection-in-the-uk-s-first-covid-19-pandemic-wave ; Prevention of hospital-acquired infections is a critical aspect of clinical management of COVID-19 as hospital-acquired infections have been a common feature of previous novel coronavirus outbreaks.¹ The number of COVID-19 patients in UK hospitals reached high levels during the first pandemic wave of 2020, and higher levels still in the subsequent winter wave. We assessed the magnitude of nosocomial COVID-19 in acute and long-term National Health Service (NHS) hospital facilities in the UK during the first pandmic wave.
We examined records of COVID-19 patients in UK hospitals enrolled in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study, with symptom onset before Aug 1, 2020

DJ You do not want healthcare worsening the pandemic...from hospitals to testing. (Here in NL at some testing stations people hang outside the door, smoking a cigarette..no masks, social distance...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/921614-china-shuts-terminal-at-world%E2%80%99s-3rd-busiest-port-after-covid-case-august-12-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/921614-china-shuts-terminal-at-world%E2%80%99s-3rd-busiest-port-after-covid-case-august-12-2021 ; China partly shut the world’s third-busiest container port after a worker became infected with Covid, threatening more damage to already fragile supply chains and global trade as a key shopping season nears.

All inbound and outbound container services at Meishan terminal in Ningbo-Zhoushan port were halted Wednesday until further notice due to a “system disruption,” according to a statement from the port. An employee tested positive for coronavirus, the eastern Chinese city’s government said.... The closed terminal accounts for about 25% of container cargo through the port...

DJ Several sides to this story, global trade but also...if China is not able to get a grip on Delta-variant with a lot of testing and vaccinations, very strict rules...what chance do countries with much less testing and rules have ? Cases in China +40% last week 563, this week 787...(no deaths reported)...When you also look at Israel, Australia simply looking bad !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/schools-public-private/921613-1-000-kids-in-mississippi-test-positive-for-covid-19-after-school-reopens[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/schools-public-private/921613-1-000-kids-in-mississippi-test-positive-for-covid-19-after-school-reopens ;
Nearly 5,000 children, educators and school staff are quarantined in Mississippi after returning to classrooms at the start of the new school year, some under mask-optional policies.

DJ Still lots of countries ignoring findings in India, Indonesia, US...will reopen schools and "be surprised there is spread of Delta in children" also in their country...can't fix stupid...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/921604-cidrap-who-calls-on-countries-to-set-aside-differences-in-sars-cov-2-origin-probe[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/921604-cidrap-who-calls-on-countries-to-set-aside-differences-in-sars-cov-2-origin-probe ; The World Health Organization (WHO) today called on countries to depoliticize the investigation into the origin of SARS-CoV-2 and how it jumped to humans, pressing for more raw data to review and suggesting that more can be done within its current framework to track lab safety around the world, including China.
In other developments, countries in Asia and elsewhere reported new daily COVID-19 records, and Australia’s capital city Canberra went on a 1-week lockdown after local cases were identified.

DJ This pandemic is man-made...we did not stop the spread of the virus even when "we" knew in january 2020 of a SARS-like virus spreading airborne from human to human in China...on top of that allready several cases of respitory infections had shown up in Europe in the last months of 2019...Intel should have had info end of 2019...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/921598-ny-covid-patients-in-icus-triple-in-month-77-of-us-counties-now-high-transmission-zones[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/921598-ny-covid-patients-in-icus-triple-in-month-77-of-us-counties-now-high-transmission-zones ; NY COVID Patients in ICUs Triple in Month; 77% of US Counties Now High Transmission Zones
More than three-quarters of all counties in America are now considered high infection rate areas by the CDC amid the delta-driven surge
By Jennifer Millman • Published 4 hours ago • Updated 3 hours ago

What to Know

More than 3/4 of all U.S. counties are now considered "high transmission" areas under the CDC's new tracking system; that means universal indoor masking is recommended regardless of vaccination status
In NJ, where the delta variant is responsible for more than 90% of COVID-positive samples tested, breakthrough infections represent a rising share of new hospitalizations, though the overall number is still low
The FDA is expected to approve a booster dose Thursday for immunocompromised Americans while officials at all levels of government push once again to reach those who haven't been vaccinated

The FDA is expected to approve a third dose for immunocompromised Americans on Thursday as the rampant spread of the delta variant, accountable for a still small but rising share of breakthrough infections, stokes new concerns about vaccine efficacy.

Breakthrough variance is significant by state, though it's not exactly clear why. Fully vaccinated people have accounted for up to 4.3% of all COVID hospitalizations (Utah) in a given state since the vaccination rollout started, according to the New York Times, and up to 5.6% of deaths (Maine).

They've driven as few as 0.1% (Georgia) of new COVID hospitalizations and 0.2% of deaths (also in Georgia).

Gov. Phil Murphy in New Jersey shared data earlier this week that hammered the point home: In his state, fully vaccinated people accounted for 3% of new COVID hospitalizations the period July 20-26. They accounted for just 0.004% of new hospitalizations between the start of the vaccine rollout and July 26, an indication that the delta variant, which now represents more than 90% of all positives samples tested in the state, could be more resistant to existing vaccines than other strains...

DJ Allthough a lot of European countries may do somewhat better in vaccinations, testing..the picture is not that different. Vaccines never claimed 100% protection. So "vaccine escape" was expected to be 5%+...and would underline the need for further restrictions, masks etc.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/917226-us-wildlife-officials-investigating-mysterious-bird-illness-in-several-states-june-11?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/917226-us-wildlife-officials-investigating-mysterious-bird-illness-in-several-states-june-11?view=stream latest; The variety of birds that are dying in mysterious ways is growing, though it is unknown whether whatever has been causing birds to die is spreading to other species.
...
On Tuesday, a roseate tern was found with neurological symptoms at Sandy Point in West Haven, Patrick Comins, executive director of the Connecticut Audubon Society, said Wednesday. “There are a lot of things that can cause that, blue-green algae or red tide.”
...
Within the last two weeks, several swans and ducks were found dead in Great Meadows Marsh in Stratford, Comins said. Boom cannons were brought in to scare away other waterfowl. “They were kind of floating face down in the water and that’s usually how botulism plays out,” he said. But that hasn’t been determined.

During an online webinar Wednesday, Jenny Dickson, director of DEEP’s Wildlife Division, said terns and raptors have been reported with symptoms that come with the mystery syndrome: swollen and crusty eyes, neurological problems such as an inability to stand.

And Brian Evans, migratory bird ecologist at the Smithsonian Migratory Bird Center, located at the National Zoo in Washington, D.C., said that while reports are “really, really scant,” chickens have been reported with symptoms.

All these add to the growing list of songbirds, woodpeckers and hummingbirds that are being tested at the UConn lab in Storrs.

DJ With reports of illness in cats, dogs, deers testing positive for Covid...there could be a not very clear indirect link to the pandemic. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/919042-russia-reports-highest-daily-covid-19-case-rise-since-early-january[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/919042-russia-reports-highest-daily-covid-19-case-rise-since-early-january latest; August 12: What you need to know today

Russia on Thursday reported 21,932 new coronavirus cases and a new pandemic record of 808 deaths.
Russia's Sputnik V vaccine is 83% effective against the Delta variant, Health Minister Mikhail Murashko said Wednesday. Research published in The Lancet this winter showed Sputnik V to be 91.6% effective against the original coronavirus strain.
Russia saw more than 530,000 excess deaths between the start of the pandemic and the end of June 2021, according to official data published Friday.

DJ Vaccination is less then 20%..."economy first" policy...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021?view=stream DJ-Cases +6,5%, deaths +6,5%, hospital admissions -8,6%, tests -2,1%  My (DJ) idea is testing has gone down...people only test when they have more serious symptoms or when they need a negative test result...Up to 80-90% of virus spread is asymptomatic due to vaccinations...That there are no symptoms yet does not mean the virus is not mutating...It is developing towards more vaccine escape since most of the spread by now in a lot of western countries is in vaccinated population thinking they are safe..."Politics" and " experts" simply not doing their job !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/921546-national-vaccine-pass-for-us-may-be-implemented-soon[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/921546-national-vaccine-pass-for-us-may-be-implemented-soon ; CMS administrator nominee Andy Slavitt headed company at the center of billing fraud case
by Evan Sweeney |Aug 4, 2015 12:30pm

Andy Slavitt, nominated by President Obama in July to replace Marilyn Tavenner as the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid administrator, was once a key player in one of the largest fraud settlements by a health insurance company, writes The Daily Caller.

Slavitt, who has served as acting administrator since Tavenner resigned in January, previously served as the chief executive officer (CEO) of Ingenix, a data analytics company owned by UnitedHealth Group that supplied reimbursement databases to health insurance companies. In 2008, then-New York Attorney
General Andrew Cuomo announced that the state was suing Ingenix for fraudulently calculating reimbursement rates and forcing beneficiaries to overpay as much as 30 percent for out-of-network providers. Prosecutors estimated the improper calculation impacted as many as 110 million Americans.

The American Medical Association jumped on board with a class-action suit, and less than a year later, UnitedHealth Group agreed to pay $350 million to settle claims that Ingenix used inaccurate pricing data. The insurer also cut a $50 million check to the state and agreed to replace Ingenix with a new, independent database.

UnitedHealth Group eventually eliminated Ingenix and created OptumInsight, keeping Slavitt on as CEO of the company until he joined CMS in 2014, according to The Daily Caller...

DJ Healthcare=money=crime ! Passes, green-cards etc. may push people to get vaccinated but also can increase new variants in vaccinated groups allowed to more social mixing...Not a long term thing...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/921579-proc-natl-acad-sci-u-s-a-asymptomatic-sars-cov-2-infection-a-systematic-review-and-meta-analysis[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/921579-proc-natl-acad-sci-u-s-a-asymptomatic-sars-cov-2-infection-a-systematic-review-and-meta-analysis ; Asymptomaticity was significantly lower among the elderly, at 19.7% (95% CI: 12.7 to 29.4%) compared with children at 46.7% (95% CI: 32.0 to 62.0%). We also found that cases with comorbidities had significantly lower asymptomaticity compared to cases with no underlying medical conditions. Without proactive policies to detect asymptomatic infections, such as rapid contact tracing, prolonged efforts for pandemic control may be needed even in the presence of vaccination.

DJ In other words; if you ignore asymptomatic spread this pandemic only lasts longer...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/921625-mol-biol-rep-genomic-evolution-of-the-human-and-animal-coronavirus-diseases[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/921625-mol-biol-rep-genomic-evolution-of-the-human-and-animal-coronavirus-diseases ; Abstract

Different coronaviruses have emerged due to their ability to infect, mutate and recombine multiple species and cell types, suggesting that these viruses will carry on to evolve and origin both veterinary and human diseases. So far, more than fifteen coronavirus-related diseases have been described in animals and seven in humans. Of which recently, a novel human betacoronavirus designated by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), an emerging zoonotic coronavirus is the causative agent of the coronavirus disease 2019. 

This virus emerged in China and spread rapidly worldwide. At the end of January 2020, the WHO declared the pandemic as a public health emergency of international concern. In this pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has infected more than 198 million people, with 4.2 million deaths worldwide (as of 2 August 2021). In the past two decades, this is the third betacoronavirus that has crossed the interspecies barrier from animals to infect humans and other animal species. The diseases caused mainly severe respiratory infections. 

The aim of this review is to summarize and provide an overview of the coronaviruses that can affect animals and humans and the diseases that ensue, as well as, its genomic relationship.

DJ "One health" humans are not that different from (other) animals...

-Video/twitter etc. 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUBrLTjiIm8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUBrLTjiIm8 ZOE-UK Covid-cases stalls (DJ-well they are going up...) 16 min. 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miZbzqR4l-M[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miZbzqR4l-M Dr. John Campbell on Covid19 and diabetes- 40 min. People with diabetes are more vulnarable for Covid-but Covid also increases a.o. risks for diabetes...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDlBZGa2GlI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDlBZGa2GlI Tropical storm "Fred" over Cuba on its way to Florida...

[url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing ; The good news is that efficacy against hospitalization is good. But it too is waning against #DeltaVariant — it’s not 99% anymore for protection against hospitalization. It dropped to 93% in June to then 88% in July.

-

How serious is the vaccine efficacy drop issue with #DeltaVariant? This serious. It went from 95% in May, to 64% in June, to 40% in July in Israel  with 2 dose Pfizer as #DeltaVariant grew in dominance.

[url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 ;

Our government's strategy of letting the virus spread, with all it's consequences, including to our young are  being justified by unevidenced narratives put forward by some in the scientific community. And those who challenge this are targeted - without engagement on the evidence

DJ Of course a next step in "denial-strategy" is to silence those experts that do not "fit the partyline"...stop counting cases, hospital cases do go down when you let less people go into hospitals...if you do not test the dying "they do not die from Covid"...

It is a major problem that those that make laws consider themselves above any laws much to often....

-Music; Cat Stevens - 1976 - Morning Has Broken [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5sSEkZ86ts[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5sSEkZ86ts 

I'm surprised by some of the things Dr John Campbell says as well. In general I think he's pretty good, but I think it's too early to call that the pandemic is retreating in the UK. 

He also said that against the Delta variant, Pfizer had dropped to about 46% efficacy and Moderna about 70%.

DJ, 

Some links since things are going fast; 

-WAR

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/08/afghanistan-this-is-the-end-.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/08/afghanistan-this-is-the-end-.html Moon of Alabama had to update the info ;

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/08/afghanistan-taliban-make-new-peace-offer-and-other-bits.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/08/afghanistan-taliban-make-new-peace-offer-and-other-bits.html 

DJ-Sunday august 15 may see the taliban being in control of all of Afghanistan...including most of Kabul. The parts not controlled yet by the taliban are not under their control by choice...The taliban may allow a lot of foreign staff etc. to leave the country for now...

Even I am surprised by how fast the NATO-puppet regime collapsed...

Climate collapse

-[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/08/there-is-no-will-to-fight-climate-change.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/08/there-is-no-will-to-fight-climate-change.html 

[url]https://paulbeckwith.net/2021/08/13/some-reflections-on-life-in-the-climate-casino-and-on-the-latest-climate-report/[/url] or https://paulbeckwith.net/2021/08/13/some-reflections-on-life-in-the-climate-casino-and-on-the-latest-climate-report/ 

This pandemic;

[url]https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/09/us/us-coronavirus-summer-reopening/index.html[/url] or https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/09/us/us-coronavirus-summer-reopening/index.html Summer did not save us...

[url]https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/02/vaccines-should-end-the-pandemic-despite-the-variants-say-experts/[/url] or https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/02/vaccines-should-end-the-pandemic-despite-the-variants-say-experts/ 

DJ-What these three have in common is unrealistic international governments underestimating risks...repeating mistakes over and over again...still unable to realize the damage they did cause...

So if the Afghan war, climate collapse does tell us anything of what to expect for this pandemic realism leaves little hope...

DJ, 

See the parallels; [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-government-lied-two-decades-about-afghanistan[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-government-lied-two-decades-about-afghanistan ; For two decades, the message Americans heard from their political and military leaders about the country’s longest war was the same. America is winning. The Taliban is on the verge of permanent obliteration. The U.S. is fortifying the Afghan security forces, which are close to being able to stand on their own and defend the government and the country.

And how we are (not) dealing with this pandemic...Do we have to face a 20 year pandemic because of political stupidity ? Do medical advisers/politicians repeat mistakes over and over because the "way they see thing unable them to face reality"? 

Do we have "crazy leaders" ? Is this pandemic a political problem - no longer a medical problem in the first place ? 

You can also look at "climate change" (=collapse...dying is also "a life event" ...please !). Governments agreed in 2015-Paris..to decrease green house gasses...and do the opposite...Sometimes even win elections by doing so...

Do most of the voters simply think if they deny the problem it will go away ? 

Not building a "house on ice" but a major city...during winter and now summer may be coming...Leaders claiming "we build solid houses" but that was not the problem...the ice under the houses is...Governments not doing a proper job because they simply do not see their task..."leaving it up to the citizens"...

-Numbers/trends [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table Global cases +1%, deaths -0,7%...with many states simply not testing enough, finding new ways to "keep numbers down" ...other lies...If you can not control the crisis, control the news...

a look at some countries supposed to be doing good in this crisis...

Israel did have a high level of vaccinations...Yesterday 7,253 new cases, 19 deaths...Trends cases +56%, deaths +78%...[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/active-cases-pass-50000-just-2-months-after-they-stood-at-around-200/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/active-cases-pass-50000-just-2-months-after-they-stood-at-around-200/ ; 

The number of serious COVID-19 cases in Israel fell slightly overnight amid hopes that the effect of the third vaccine booster given to older Israelis was beginning to be seen. Meanwhile, active cases in the country rose to over 50,000 after standing at around 200 just two months ago.

Health Ministry data showed there were 531 patients in serious condition, a drop of 7 since midnight. Of the seriously ill, 94 were on ventilators. In total, there were 908 people hospitalized with COVID-19.

The Health Ministry said the rate of serious cases was far higher among unvaccinated Israelis aged 60-plus, who constituted 151.5 people per 100,000 in serious condition on Monday; among the vaccinated the figure was 19.3, and among the partially vaccinated 40.9.

DJ Most cases in unvaccinated...Vaccines still doing a job...Schools in Israel reopen september 1...

UK Cases +5%, deaths +1%...Almost 3,000 cases per million in the last 7 days...

Australia [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/australias-outbreak-worsens-authorities-tighten-lockdowns[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/australias-outbreak-worsens-authorities-tighten-lockdowns ...

China [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/worlds-third-busiest-port-remains-partially-shut-china-stoking-fresh-supply-chain-fears[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/worlds-third-busiest-port-remains-partially-shut-china-stoking-fresh-supply-chain-fears 

Of course some experts have been warning the only way to get Delta-with a R0 of between 5 and 8 under control is vaccinations AND lockdowns...Somehow "politics" go on reopening.."saving the economy" till there is no room at ICU/hospitals...bodies piling up...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/921759-vaccine-inventor-questions-mandatory-shot-push-biden%E2%80%99s-covid-19-strategy-vaccination-arms-race-could-prove-dangerous-to-the-american-public[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/921759-vaccine-inventor-questions-mandatory-shot-push-biden%E2%80%99s-covid-19-strategy-vaccination-arms-race-could-prove-dangerous-to-the-american-public latest ; How remaining in the dark and turning in vicious circles inevitably leads to erroneous decisions

Conducting mass vaccination campaigns on a background of high infection rates generates optimal conditions for breeding even more infectious Sars-CoV-2 variants. 

The combination of massive, spike-directed immune pressure combined with high infectious pressure rapidly allows these variants to reproduce more effectively such as to outcompete previously circulating variants/ strains. 

Mass vaccination, therefore, promotes viral evolution towards more infectious variants.

The resulting enhancement of viral infectious pressure makes it more likely for everyone, including healthy, unvaccinated people to come in contact with the virus, especially in times where infection prevention measures are loosened. 

To the extent that high infection rates cause people to become re-exposed shortly after a previous asymptomatic infection, their innate Sars-CoV-binding antibodies (Abs) will be suppressed by short-lived, poorly functional anti-spike Abs, known to not be responsible for preventing the infection from becoming symptomatic. 

It is precisely the suppression of these broadly protective innate Abs that makes previously asymptomatically infected individuals more susceptible to disease. 

It is also precisely this phenomenon that explains why a first wave of a natural pandemic is followed by a second wave in younger age groups. 

The even bigger amplitude of that second wave merely reflects the overwhelming contribution of a population’s innate immunity to its overall immune protective capacity. 

So, this is why we’re now seeing more and more disease in younger age groups, and even children, although they were perfectly protected during previous waves. 

Extending mass vaccination campaigns to these younger age groups is the most irresponsible public health proposal (decision?) ever as...

DJ [url]https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/post/how-remaining-in-the-dark-and-turning-in-vicious-circles-inevitably-leads-to-erroneous-decisions[/url] or https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/post/how-remaining-in-the-dark-and-turning-in-vicious-circles-inevitably-leads-to-erroneous-decisions  A few comments on Geert van den Bossche ; He does not have an alternative-as far as I know...for vaccines...Also so far most of the new cases/deaths are in the unvaccinated...

But combining mass vaccination with spread of variants has to result in new vaccine escape variants...(This is just my opinion...I am not an expert...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/921773-harvard-medical-school-professor-nih-director-francis-collins-is-misleading-the-public[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/921773-harvard-medical-school-professor-nih-director-francis-collins-is-misleading-the-public ; Natural infection vs vaccination: Which gives more protection?

Nearly 40% of new COVID patients were vaccinated - compared to just 1% who had been infected previously.

David Rosenberg , Jul 13 , 2021 9:24 AM

Coronavirus patients who recovered from the virus were far less likely to become infected during the latest wave of the pandemic than people who were vaccinated against COVID, according to numbers presented to the Israeli Health Ministry.

Health Ministry data on the wave of COVID outbreaks which began this May show that Israelis with immunity from natural infection were far less likely to become infected again in comparison to Israelis who only had immunity via vaccination.

More than 7,700 new cases of the virus have been detected during the most recent wave starting in May, but just 72 of the confirmed cases were reported in people who were known to have been infected previously – that is, less than 1% of the new cases.

Roughly 40% of new cases – or more than 3,000 patients – involved people who had been infected despite being vaccinated...

DJ Discussion on how well natural infection protects...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021?view=stream latest-DJ UK cases +4,8%, deaths +1,6%, hospital admissions +2,1%, testing going up 0,5%...UK Hospital cases were going down for some days...Deaths and hospital numbers may be less vulnarable for government-fraud...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/921856-nih-scientists-develop-faster-covid-19-test[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/921856-nih-scientists-develop-faster-covid-19-test ; Scientists at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) have developed a new sample preparation method to detect SARS-Cov-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The method bypasses extraction of the virus’ genetic RNA material, simplifying sample purification and potentially reducing test time and cost. The method is the result of a collaboration among researchers at the National Eye Institute (NEI), the NIH Clinical Center (CC), and the National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research (NIDCR).

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news...-covid-19-test

DJ Welcome news ! Better, faster, testing/sequencing can give a better view of where this pandemic is going !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/schools-public-private/921855-florida-5-600-hillsborough-students-quarantined-due-to-covid-19-emergency-school-board-meeting-this-wednesday[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/schools-public-private/921855-florida-5-600-hillsborough-students-quarantined-due-to-covid-19-emergency-school-board-meeting-this-wednesday ; TAMPA, Fla. - Thousands of students in Hillsborough County public schools are being quarantined due to exposure to COVID-19.

As of Monday, the school district said 5,599 students are either in isolation due to a positive case or in quarantine due to exposure. That's an increase of about 1,200 students from Friday when officials said 4,477 students had to be quarantined.

... Meanwhile, 316 school district employees are also quarantining, up from 289 on Friday.

DJ Maybe the schoolboard missed news on the pandemic ? Can't fix stupid-stupid kills !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/921852-cidrap-us-covid-19-cases-back-to-pre-vaccination-levels[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/921852-cidrap-us-covid-19-cases-back-to-pre-vaccination-levels ; For the first time since February, the United States reported more than 900,000 COVID-19 cases last week—with the country represented 20% of global cases—a sign the pandemic surge caused by the Delta (B1617.2) variant has stalled the progress made by an aggressive vaccine rollout that dampened cases this spring and summer.

-

"There is a concern that the vaccine may start to wane in its effectiveness," Collins said. "And delta is a nasty one for us to try to deal with. The combination of those two means we may need boosters, maybe beginning first with health care providers, as well as people in nursing homes, and then gradually moving forward."
Collins also said any unvaccinated American was currently a "sitting duck" for the Delta variant.

DJ-The problem is not solved with booster vaccines...Delta has a R0 between 5 and 8 so vaccines AND NPI are needed ! "Politics" using vaccinations as an excuse for reopenings are simply doing a very bad job !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/921851-cidrap-who-7-7-billion-needed-for-covid-variant-detection-oxygen[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/921851-cidrap-who-7-7-billion-needed-for-covid-variant-detection-oxygen ; As many parts of the world battle the more transmissible Delta (B1617.2) variant, the World Health Organization (WHO) today said $7.7 billion is needed to track new variants and boost the supply of oxygen.
Meanwhile, countries such as Iran, Japan, and Australia expanded their COVID-19 measures to slow their latest COVID-19 surges.

World still in acute pandemic phase

In a statement, the WHO said the Delta variant’s transmissibility ramps up vaccination urgency and that rising infection rates are overwhelming health systems. The agency added that low testing levels, especially in low- and middle-income countries, is leaving the world blind to how the virus is evolving, leaving it vulnerable to new variants.

DJ If there is no profit in it for Big Pharma "there will be no serious investments"....Western thinking has gone of the rails...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/921849-cidrap-young-kids-more-likely-than-older-kids-to-spread-covid-19-to-household[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/921849-cidrap-young-kids-more-likely-than-older-kids-to-spread-covid-19-to-household ; A Canadian study today in JAMA Pediatrics suggests that while younger children are less likely than older children to be the index COVID-19 patient in their home, they are more likely to spread it to household members.
Led by researchers from Public Health Ontario in Toronto, the study involved 6,280 households with COVID-19 index patients 17 years and younger from Jun 1 to Dec 31, 2020.
Of the 6,280 households, 1,717 (27.3%) experienced SARS-CoV-2 transmission to a median of two siblings or caregivers in the household 1 to 14 days after index patient diagnosis. Children aged 0 to 8 had higher odds of transmitting the virus, but those 3 years and younger had the greatest infectivity (odds ratio [OR], 1.43 vs those 14 to 17 years).
Similar odds were seen when restricting secondary cases to those occurring 2 to 14 days or 4 to 14 days after diagnosis of the index patient, regardless of symptoms or link to a school or childcare outbreak or reopening.
Consistent with increasing degrees of autonomy, proportions of index patients in each age-group rose with age, with 12% of those 0 to 3 years, 20% of those 4 to 8, 30% of those 9 to 13, and 38% of those 14 to 17. Mean COVID-19 index patient age was 10.7 years, and 45.6% were girls.

DJ Children have been almost ignored in this pandemic...one of many mistakes...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/921834-cmaj-even-mild-covid-19-may-have-long-term-brain-impacts[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/921834-cmaj-even-mild-covid-19-may-have-long-term-brain-impacts ; 

Despite the relatively good news that somewhere between 98%-99% of those infected with COVID-19 survive their illness, we continue to see disturbing data suggesting that survivors often come away with lingering - sometimes permanent - sequelae.

Viral epidemics and pandemics have a long history of leaving behind poorly understood `post-pandemic' illnesses, often involving neurological manifestations. ME/CFS is an apparent post-viral syndrome - that once ignored - isnow taken very seriously by the National Institute of Health.

DJ-Living with the virus shows utter stupidity...but seems to be the dominant thinking, ME/CFS in NL-and still a lot of other countries-is often seen as a mental disorder...If the "psychology-sector" can make money out of it no doubt they could go for "long Covid is mental" non-sense...money matters-science is to often ignored...

-Other news; 

[url]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/[/url] or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ "Fred" is now bringing lots of rain in the SE-US, "Grace" is moving south of Cuba...proberbly going towards Mexico, "Henri"is going circles around Bermuda...Is this "normal weather"...NO..

USGS keeps reporting strong quakes in the South Atlantic...Lots of M5+ quakes in the South Sandwich Island region...faultlines linked to those following South America west coast up north...There has been an M8,1 quake in that region..but it did not get quiet...

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/08/afghanistan-chaos-pictures-increase-fallout-from-us-defeat.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/08/afghanistan-chaos-pictures-increase-fallout-from-us-defeat.html ;

The geopolitical consequences of the U.S. defeat will be felt for a long time. As Andrei Martyanov writes:

The world took notice and the United States handed the victory to Islamic fanatics and thus emboldened them, the same way the United States fanned the flames of Political Islam in 1980s and helped to form the force which is radically anti-civilizational in its essence.

This IS the main failure of the combined West and it will be, yet again, up to someone else to clean this fucking mess after the US, whose political and military "elites" not only did not learn shit from anything but are incapable of learning. In that, when combined with a myriad of other economic, scientific, cultural and moral failures, modern West, headed by the United States, declared itself a failure. Events in Kabul today demonstrate perfectly and are the epitome of the modern West.

I am much less concerned about the Taliban as a winning local resistance in Afghanistan than about the example their victory sets for more radical Islamists in other parts of the world.

DJ, The Kabul-crisis may be showing "governments totally disfunctional"....It is not only a US problem, Afghanistan was a NATO-disaster...on top of so many other disasters....

Yes-Biden is right...The US decission to pull out from Afghanistan was made by trump...But the total disaster of US pulling out-even fooling themselves there is an "Afghan government"-shows a total western faillure...

Music-two songs; It Aint What You Do, Its The way That You Do It...Fun Boy Three...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_kjctTbMHA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_kjctTbMHA  AND 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWLdZFCMx8Y[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWLdZFCMx8Y Same group-The Lunatics Have Taken Over The Asylum...

DJ-How do you tell your boss (s)he has gone crazy without losing your job...

part two, DJ

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Of the global 647,000+ cases the US reported 137,300+ cases...Iran 50,000+, Brazil 38,000+, India 35,000+ France at #5 with 28,000+ When you look at countries and numbers; global spread still high numbers ! This is summer ! Schools did not yet start in many places !

Deaths; Indonesia 1,180, Brazil 1,137, USA 873, Russia 805, Iran 625...There are doubts on numbers from many countries/States. Worldwide we had 9,935 deaths reported for tuesday august 17. A year ago cases were under 300,000 per day, deaths most between 6,000 and 7,000. 

Trends [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table Global cases +0,9%, deaths -0,8%...

US cases +12%, deaths +14%, UK cases +6%, deaths +4%...Israel cases +40%, deaths +75% (76 last week, 133 this week..)

Germany-with proberbly also good testing/reporting cases +61% deaths -13% (104 last week 91 this week...German population=84 million, Israel population 9,3 million). NL cases -8%, deaths -9%...

So is the "Delta-wave" over its peak ? I think that may be to optimistic ! Schools soon will start..younger people often much less vaccinated...We did have a bad, wet, cold summer in this part of the globe...so not a lot of vitamin D etc...

Maybe half of september we can say/see if the Delta-variant did peak...It would be very welcome if spread in the under 18 y/o could stay very limited...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/921925-texas-governor-greg-abbott-tests-positive-for-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/921925-texas-governor-greg-abbott-tests-positive-for-covid-19 ; "Governor Greg Abbott today tested positive for the COVID-19 virus. The Governor has been testing daily, and today was the first positive test result. Governor Abbott is in constant communication with his staff, agency heads, and government officials to ensure that state government continues to operate smoothly and efficiently. The Governor will isolate in the Governor's Mansion and continue to test daily. Governor Abbott is receiving Regeneron's monoclonal antibody treatment.

"Governor Abbott is fully vaccinated against COVID-19, in good health, and currently experiencing no symptoms. Everyone that the Governor has been in close contact with today has been notified. Texas First Lady Cecilia Abbott tested negative."

DJ, BoJo, trump, bolsonaro, also once tested positive...it did not change their (lack of) strategy on this pandemic.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/921923-cidrap-white-house-to-recommend-3rd-covid-19-vaccine-dose[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/921923-cidrap-white-house-to-recommend-3rd-covid-19-vaccine-dose ; Several media outlets are reporting that the White House intends to announce next week that recipients of both the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna mRNA COVID-19 vaccines should receive a third dose of vaccine 8 months after their second dose in order to boost protection against the Delta (B1617.2) variant.

The proposed third doses could be administered as soon as mid-September, sources told The New York Times, with nursing home residents and healthcare workers poised to get the first shots, followed by elderly Americans who were vaccinated last winter.

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will need to authorize additional shots, and guidance for Johnson & Johnson recipients will follow after that company releases results from a second-dose trial later this month. White House officials say people will be encouraged to get a third dose of whichever mRNA vaccine they first received.

Much of the decision has been based on Israel's experience. Israel was the first country to vaccinate a large swath of its population with the Pfizer vaccine in January. Ongoing studies show that antibodies, especially in older people, begin to wane after 6 to 8 months.
According to the latest data from Israel, the Pfizer vaccine is now only 55% effective for Israelis 65 and older who completed the two-dose vaccine regimen in January.

Late last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended third doses of the mRNA vaccines for people with moderately to severely compromised immune systems, including cancer patients and those living with HIV.

DJ Vaccination strategy will mean booster vaccinations. With new variants there may come new vaccines more often for smaller groups ? My impression is China is going for long term mass vaccination-including booster vaccines. With lockdowns in regions where there are outbreaks...The China goal may be zero-Covid...but it may turn out to be a long road before they get there. 

In my opinion China may have a clear strategy in combination with means to make that strategy work; massive testing, massive vaccinations...1 billion people vaccinated in 3 months, Wuhan tested twice in a week...over 11 million people...

China may soon be exporting not only vaccines but also its strategy, including hospitals, staff...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/921922-cidrap-first-local-covid-19-case-in-months-prompts-new-zealand-lockdown[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/921922-cidrap-first-local-covid-19-case-in-months-prompts-new-zealand-lockdown ; Patient part of 5-case cluster

New Zealand's local case involves a 58-year-old Auckland man who hadn't yet been vaccinated and had no known links to the country's borders, according to the New Zealand Herald. His symptoms began yesterday, and he tested positive today.
Officials have identified 23 possible events where he could have passed the virus to others.
Today officials confirmed four more cases, all linked to the man. One involves a hospital staff member, and tests confirmed that the virus is the Delta variant.
New Zealand has won praise keeping its COVID-19 levels low with tough containment measures. Other countries that have kept cases low, including Vietnam and Australia, have also struggled to contain the more transmissible Delta variant.

DJ Going for "herd immunity" is no option...Still sad news !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/921746-haiti-earthquake-%E2%80%93-huge-magnitude-7-quake-strikes-in-caribbean?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/921746-haiti-earthquake-%E2%80%93-huge-magnitude-7-quake-strikes-in-caribbean?view=stream latest; Heavy rain from Tropical Storm Grace forced a temporary halt Tuesday to the Haitian government’s response to the deadly weekend earthquake, feeding the growing anger and frustration among thousands who were left homeless.

Grace battered southwestern Haiti, which was hit hardest by Saturday’s quake, and officials warned some areas could get 15 inches (38 centimeters) of rain before the storm moved on. Heavy rain also drenched the capital of Port-au-Prince.

The storm hit Haiti late Monday, the same day that the country’s Civil Protection Agency raised the death toll from the earthquake to 1,419 and the number of injured to 6,000, many of whom have had to wait for medical help lying outside in wilting heat.

DJ The number of people killed by the earthquake may be in the tens of thousends...Diseases will spread..a.o. corona but also fear of cholera restarting. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910938-spain-detects-american-minks-with-coronavirus-march-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910938-spain-detects-american-minks-with-coronavirus-march-2021?view=stream latest-another imported mink testing positive for Covid.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/921897-build-environ-aerosols-from-speaking-can-linger-in-the-air-for-up-to-nine-hours[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/921897-build-environ-aerosols-from-speaking-can-linger-in-the-air-for-up-to-nine-hours ; Airborne transmission of respiratory diseases has been under intense spotlight in the context of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) where continued resurgence is linked to the relaxation of social interaction measures. To understand the role of speech aerosols in the spread of COVID-19 globally, the lifetime and size distribution of the aerosols are studied through a combination of light scattering observation and aerosol sampling.

 It was found that aerosols from speaking suspended in stagnant air for up to 9 h with a half-life of 87.2 min. The half-life of the aerosols declined with the increase in air change per hour from 28 to 40 min (1 h^-1), 10-14 min (4 h^-1), to 4-6 min (9 h^-1). The speech aerosols in the size range of about 0.3-2 μm (after dehydration) witnessed the longest lifetime compared to larger aerosols (2-10 μm). 

These results suggest that speech aerosols have the potential to transmit respiratory viruses across long duration (hours), and long-distance (over social distance) through the airborne route. 

These findings are important for researchers and engineers to simulate the airborne dispersion of viruses in indoor environments and to design new ventilation systems in the future.

DJ Ventilation, limiting number of visitors, masks all are needed.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/921876-j-autoimmun-evolutionary-analysis-of-the-delta-and-delta-plus-variants-of-the-sars-cov-2-viruses[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/921876-j-autoimmun-evolutionary-analysis-of-the-delta-and-delta-plus-variants-of-the-sars-cov-2-viruses ;

Abstract

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been rapidly evolving in the form of new variants. 

At least eleven known variants have been reported. The objective of this study was to delineate the differences in the mutational profile of Delta and Delta Plus variants. 

High-quality sequences (n = 1756) of Delta (B.1.617.2) and Delta Plus (AY.1 or B.1.617.2.1) variants were used to determine the prevalence of mutations (≥20 %) in the entire SARS-CoV-2 genome, their co-existence, and change in prevalence over a period of time. 

Structural analysis was conducted to get insights into the impact of mutations on antibody binding. A Sankey diagram was generated using phylogenetic analysis coupled with sequence-acquisition dates to infer the migration of the Delta Plus variant and its presence in the United States. 

The Delta Plus variant had a significant number of high-prevalence mutations (≥20 %) than in the Delta variant. Signature mutations in Spike (G142D, A222V, and T95I) existed at a more significant percentage in the Delta Plus variant than the Delta variant. 

Three mutations in Spike (K417N, V70F, and W258L) were exclusively present in the Delta Plus variant. A new mutation was identified in ORF1a (A1146T), which was only present in the Delta Plus variant with ~58 % prevalence. 

Furthermore, five key mutations (T95I, A222V, G142D, R158G, and K417N) were significantly more prevalent in the Delta Plus than in the Delta variant. 

Structural analyses revealed that mutations alter the sidechain conformation to weaken the interactions with antibodies. Delta Plus, which first emerged in India, reached the United States through England and Japan, followed by its spread to more than 20 the United States. 

Based on the results presented here, it is clear that the Delta and Delta Plus variants have unique mutation profiles, and the Delta Plus variant is not just a simple addition of K417N to the Delta variant. Highly correlated mutations may have emerged to keep the structural integrity of the virus.

DJ Should "Delta+" be seen as a different variant ? (Maybe even be renamed ?) It is good more on its mutations are now known-so it may be better to sequence...

Delta+, Lambda, Colombia variants do show up in the news as possibly increasing...but the picture is not clear yet. Both testing and sequencing may be serious problems. Increased ad random testing could detect some variants may be spreading much more asymptomatic..missed when you only look at symptomatic spread. Variants with a high level of asymptomatic spread (in vaccinated) may become symptomatic spreaders later on...

-Video's; 

Dr. John Campbell on long Covid in vaccinated and viral spread via babies [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rKqTU2G0AM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rKqTU2G0AM ; info/links under the video

also [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b98qMT-RWWo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b98qMT-RWWo political issues.

ZOE [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KeX9vdRQWvs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KeX9vdRQWvs How Covid effects children. 

Of course there are also the twitter accounts with lots of info !

Music Hot Butter-Pop Corn (=dance) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfdLh0MHqKw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfdLh0MHqKw 

DJ,

Let me start with "good news", the same points I closed my last "scenario's" with; Better treatment, testing/sequencing (likely combined...so a rapid test will not only tell if you have Covid but also some more indication on what variants...PCR-testing now looking at 3 segments of the RNA-Covid...In the Alfa/UK variant one of those three was missing-so there testing often give indication on Alfa/UK variant). 

Vaccines DO protect ! [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/not-waiting-for-final-okay-clinics-rush-to-offer-covid-boosters-to-anyone-40/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/not-waiting-for-final-okay-clinics-rush-to-offer-covid-boosters-to-anyone-40/ Israel going for large scale third vaccination...Yesterday they started the 40+ y/o, teachers etc...ALL 12 y/o can get a third vaccination...because Israel numbers are high (5,116 new cases yesterday, 29 deaths...trends cases +27%, deaths +56%...These numbers indicate much more NPI/lockdown is needed.)

Easier testing and vaccinations (via a pill, nasal spray...no needles !) may be around the corner. Vaccine production-worldwide-proberbly going up fast. India proberbly still a main producer...China also did increase production...both countries do have such a large population export of vaccines may be limited for now. 

Now the bad news;

Politics;

[url]https://www.gelderlander.nl/binnenland/voorzitter-politievakbond-is-het-zat-als-we-niets-doen-loopt-het-compleet-uit-de-hand-in-nederland~aec82379/[/url] or https://www.gelderlander.nl/binnenland/voorzitter-politievakbond-is-het-zat-als-we-niets-doen-loopt-het-compleet-uit-de-hand-in-nederland~aec82379/ A link in Dutch; NL police trade union warning politics; Act now to prevent crime taking over NL...It is good news they sound the alarm; the bad news is politics is not listening..."Free market, open borders" means more room for crime..."Our" "liberal" party will not change that...it makes me wonder if crime has allready taken over the main NL political party...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/they-knew-leaked-state-department-memo-warned-afghanistan-collapse[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/political/they-knew-leaked-state-department-memo-warned-afghanistan-collapse The US government was warned july 13 of the Afghan government collapse...France started evacuations in June...did make lists of who to evacuate in April !

Also in this pandemic politics seem to be unable to even get the basics done...In a crisis blame China is not solving anything...Coronavirusses were a well known problem...both for humans (SARS-1, MERS a.o. ) and in animals...

Still "experts/politics" were surprised by a pandemic  for wich they did get warnings for over a decade...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/hurricane-headed-new-england[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/hurricane-headed-new-england YES "Henri" is moving towards New England...They idea of government is to act....

Is there a point in writing these daily updates ? Why do I do this ? First of all I wanted to know "what is happening, where are we going" -that is the reason I joined this forum...But also sharing info and ideas may help other people facing the same questions and doubts...Things can change fast...so trying to do daily updates makes some sense. Dr. John Campbell (he is much more an expert, I am not !-just trying to make sense...) doing allmost daily video's also may hint at developments/news worth noting on a daily basis...

-Numbers-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Highest numbers so far for new cases per day were on end of april this year-around 900,000 per day being reported-a lot from India-also a lot of under reporting...Highest number of deaths per day was mid January this year-Alfa-UK variant; 17,500 deaths per day reported..in April the real number of (India) deaths per day must have been in the hundreds of thousends-India just did not report them...

So yesterdays 723,000+ new cases, 10,948 deaths are "limited"...Global trend on reported numbers cases +1%, deaths -0,9% may even be seen as "promissing" if they had any relation with reality...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table 

Cases; US +10%, UK +8%, NL +4%...Germany +62%, France -4%

Deaths; US +19%, UK +9%, NL -11%....Germany +6%, France +58% (last week 389, this week 616..population 65,4 million)

-Flutrackers latest posts; 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922127-nearly-60-of-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-in-israel-fully-vaccinated-data-shows[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922127-nearly-60-of-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-in-israel-fully-vaccinated-data-shows ; Of 514 patients in Israel hospitalized with COVID-19 as of Aug. 15, 59 percent were fully vaccinated, according to an Aug. 16 article from Science that cited national data tracked by Israel's largest health management organization. The figures suggest breakthrough infections may be more common than the term implies, the report suggests.

Most of the vaccinated patients who were hospitalized, about 87 percent, were at least 60 years old.

"This is a very clear warning sign for the rest of the world," said Ran Balicer, CIO at Clalit Health Services, Israel's largest health maintenance organization. "If it can happen here, it can probably happen anywhere," he told Science...

DJ-Vaccine protection may last some months and in older/vulnarable people be more limited...Vaccinations will be part of the strategy to get out of this pandemic...but vaccines can not deal with Delta without NPI...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922123-nearly-100-000-canadian-health-care-workers-have-contracted-covid-19-this-year-alone-report-finds[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922123-nearly-100-000-canadian-health-care-workers-have-contracted-covid-19-this-year-alone-report-finds ; As Canada braces for the fourth wave of the pandemic and some provinces are mandating vaccines for health-care workers, the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) says that nearly 100,000 people working in the field were diagnosed with COVID-19 in the first 5.5 months of the year.

The CIHI, an independent, not-for-profit organization that provides information on health care, released a report on Thursday detailing the impact COVID-19 has had on the health workforce from the beginning of the year through June 15.

It showed that the number of infections in health-care workers was 94,873, representing about seven per cent of the total cases in Canada. That compares to 19.4 per cent in July 2020...

DJ I do not know the number of HCW-ers in Canada...but this news underlines healthcare/hospital may reach breaking point when more agressive variants spread in HCW-ers...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/922121-decades-old-sars-virus-infection-triggers-potent-response-to-covid-vaccines[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/922121-decades-old-sars-virus-infection-triggers-potent-response-to-covid-vaccines ; People who were infected almost two decades ago with the virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) generate a powerful antibody response after being vaccinated against COVID-19. Their immune systems can fight off multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants, as well as related coronaviruses found in bats and pangolins.

The Singapore-based authors of a small study published today in The New England Journal of Medicine¹ say the results offer hope that vaccines can be developed to protect against all new SARS-CoV-2 variants, as well as other coronaviruses that have the potential to cause future pandemics.

The study is a “proof of concept that a pan-coronavirus vaccine in humans is possible”, says David Martinez, a viral immunologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. ...

DJ, A "Pan-Coronavirus vaccine" may be needed...top of the list !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/922119-navy-commander-warns-of-national-security-threat-from-mandatory-vaccination[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/922119-navy-commander-warns-of-national-security-threat-from-mandatory-vaccination ; 

Furman’s key points are:

• The average member of the U.S. military is young and in excellent physical fitness, two categories that are nearly immune to the dangers of COVID. So far, only 24 people out of 2.2 million military personnel have died of COVID-19, a rate of less than one per 91,000.
• There is reason to believe severe or even fatal side-effects from existing COVID-19 vaccines are more common than reported, and could even prove deadlier to otherwise-healthy servicemen than COVID-19.
• There is also the outlier possibility that mRNA vaccines (the kind used by the Moderna and Pfizer shots) may have unanticipated negative effects on the immune systems of recipients.
• Currently, the U.S. military has proven completely capable of weathering COVID-19 without any loss of effectiveness, so forcibly making the entire service a test case for a novel type of vaccine is a pointless risk.

We invite readers to read CDR Furman’s entire paper below, made available exclusively to Revolver News

*The views and opinions expressed in this paper do not in any way represent the United States Navy or the Department of Defense. Commander Jay Furman is a career United States naval officer, naval aviator and foreign area officer with extensive experience advising senior military, diplomatic, and international organization leadership. The Commander has spent years serving throughout Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East at sea, ashore, and airborne. He holds a Master of Arts in Security Studies from the Naval Postgraduate School.

DJ; Good communications are needed ! Conflict is NOT needed ! Again-non mandatory vaccinations see I think in NL, Israel very high numbers of people willing to get vaccinated (80-90%+ for 12 y/o+...In health care often 95%+ is vaccinated without mandatory rules ! ).

It may be wiser to seek limits on social behavior. There may be no point in going for large scale vaccinations without limits to (air)travel, no NPI, masks, ventilation rules etc...Some experts claim 10 weeks-3 months of strict rules in combination with high level of vaccinations could bring the R0 to (as good as) 0 ! It is a matter of politics...choices...We are still in this pandemic because of wrong choices made by politics !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-pneumonia-respiratory-and-influenza-like-illnesses-ili/922090-41-households-in-delhi-report-flu-like-symptoms-survey[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-pneumonia-respiratory-and-influenza-like-illnesses-ili/922090-41-households-in-delhi-report-flu-like-symptoms-survey ; As many as 41 per cent of surveyed Delhi households say that they have one or more members who are currently down with flu-like symptoms.

The findings of the survey by Local Circles also indicate that 22 per cent of Delhi households are fully impacted with it, which means all members are having such symptoms while 19 per cent have only 1 member so far and it is likely that more members may develop symptoms in the days to come.

However, 59 per cent of citizens have indicated that they do not have anyone in their households with the flu-like symptoms, the survey said.

Many Delhi residents in the last 7 days have reported that one or more members in their family are struggling with Covid-like symptoms i.e. fever, runny nose, fatigue.

Many are also getting a RT-PCR test done only to find later post doctor consultation that they are Covid-negative and had gotten under the influence of some kind of viral infection or seasonal flu...

DJ So 41% of Delhi households are supposed NOT to have Covid but a form of flu for wich there is no testing...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922079-uk-fears-grow-of-winter-covid-surge-after-deaths-and-cases-accelerate[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922079-uk-fears-grow-of-winter-covid-surge-after-deaths-and-cases-accelerate ; 'I'm very worried': Fears grow of winter COVID surge after deaths and cases accelerate
James Morris·Senior news reporter, Yahoo News UK
Thu., August 19, 2021, 6:25 a.m.·2 min read

A top coronavirus adviser has said he is “very worried” with infections once again on the increase.

Prof Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) which advises the government, warned “we just don’t really know what’s going to happen” as winter approaches.

It comes as 33,904 cases were reported on Wednesday, the highest in a day for nearly four weeks.

Case numbers, after dramatically dropping at the end of July, are once again on the rise, as this government chart indicates.

Furthermore, a further 170 and 111 deaths were recorded on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.

The 170 figure was the highest since 12 March, when the after-effects of the UK’s second wave were still being felt.

Asked about the figures, Prof Openshaw told Times Radio on Thursday: “I think it’s very worrying. This is a very large number.

“If you think 34,000 people, that’s a lot of people testing positive, and to be seeing over 100 deaths a day at this stage… before schools have gone back, while the weather is still relatively good… we’re not back into winter yet.”...

DJ-Well-a look at statistics show an increase during winter...you may link that with the Alfa/UK variant...Delta is much more infectious, agressive...schools reopening, people returning from vacations...the main question proberbly has to be will Delta(+?) variants further explode and/or will another variant get even worse ? 

NOT opening schools, lockdowns, door-to-door testing are ways to limit such a scenario...but "we"are not doing that...so YES cases will explode !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/922161-front-public-health-covid-19-vaccination-acceptance-among-healthcare-workers-and-non-healthcare-workers-in-china-a-survey[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/922161-front-public-health-covid-19-vaccination-acceptance-among-healthcare-workers-and-non-healthcare-workers-in-china-a-survey ; A total of 2,580 respondents completed the questionnaire, including 1,329 healthcare workers and 1,251 non-healthcare workers. This study showed that 76.98% of healthcare workers accepted the COVID-19 vaccine, 18.28% workers were hesitant, and 4.74% workers were resistant. Among the non-healthcare workers, 56.19% workers received the COVID-19 vaccine, 37.57% workers were hesitant, and 6.24% workers were resistant.

DJ I expected there would be much more social pressure in China on vaccine acceptance..

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latest; Now we have an estimate of 3.6 million excess deaths in India in wave 2



if the wave in USA were similar as in India in April/May and

if there were as little natural immunity and vaccination as there was in India and

if NPIs were as in India , and if the agestructure of deaths were the same for India

and USA as it was in USA in previous waves and

if healthcare were the same as in India



then I calculate 2.54million deaths for USA in this wave.




USA has only 1/4 of India's population but people are older average and

thus more at risk to die from COVID..

So, that's the estimate if SARS2 had been delta in March 2020 with little NPIs,

as was planned until Ferguson came with his estimate on Mar 11.

We didn't really know in March 2020, how contagious it was.

DJ-Some realism...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920558-us-surveillance-data-shows-white-tailed-deer-exposed-to-sars-cov-2?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920558-us-surveillance-data-shows-white-tailed-deer-exposed-to-sars-cov-2?view=stream latest; Infection and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and its alpha variant in pregnant white-tailed deer. 

Our results demonstrate that adult white-tailed deer are highly susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection and can transmit the virus through direct contact as well as vertically from doe to fetus. Additionally, we determined that the alpha VOC B.1.1.7 isolate of SARS-CoV-2 outcompetes the ancestral lineage A isolate in white-tailed deer, as demonstrated by the genome of the virus shed from nasal and oral cavities from principal infected and contact animals, and from virus present in tissues of principal infected deer, fetuses and contact animals...

DJ-Very bad sign ! Makes stopping the spread even more urgent ! 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922026-china-another-community-covid-19-case-in-august-a-vaccinated-hospital-nurse-with-no-travel-history-august-18-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922026-china-another-community-covid-19-case-in-august-a-vaccinated-hospital-nurse-with-no-travel-history-august-18-2021 ; The nurse had not been to other provinces over the past two weeks or had any contact with other domestic epidemic-hit areas recently.

According to the local health authority, the patient has had two vaccine doses and before she was tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday she tested negative in all the nucleic acid tests she took once every three days since August 2.

more.. zhttps://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1231870.shtml

DJ Asymptomatic spread-even with a very high level of testing (often several times...). Maybe the nurse had a bit less vaccine immunity...(vaccination not in right spot ?)...

I could include links to Dr. John Campbell and ZOE on YouTube but I think they offer limited info...retrospective...I try to look forward. 

Denial of all kind of problems is very popular-getting a lot of votes in elections...If there is no problem-there is no need for a solution ! (I did see Peak Prosperity title claiming the pandemic is over...It is not the way I see it !)

[url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 Even asked by government NOT to warn against school reopenings because "she did not see the context"....

Music-Politicians/voters favorite song; Don't worry, be happy ! [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-diB65scQU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-diB65scQU Bobby McFerrin ... 

work in progres

Pixie-If deer do get this kind of disease and there is a link to Covid19 it would indicate the first major deadly spread of covid in non-human hosts in the wild on a larger scale. 

A very major worry;

Will it be able to spread to other animals (or did it but without symptoms)

Will it spread from animals back to humans in new variants ? 

I think it underlines to need to stop the spread ! It looks like vaccines do stop disease, not the spread. So further restrictions soon will return...when "the world" reopens after vacation...

It may be worthwile if there was more testing in pets...maybe even mandatory in households where there is infection in humans. 

Spread in/via non-human hosts would make this pandemic not only last longer-new, more, variants would most likely make this pandemic more deadly...

DJ, 

With hurricane Henri moving towards New York City/Boston area-making landfall tomorrow the US may face an extra crisis on top of this pandemic. Vaccinations in New England are the highest of the US...so pandemic wise damage may remain limited. Grace will today hit south part of Mexico-not very much populated but it will do damage. 

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  Global cases august 20 as far as reported 684,000+, US over 150,000 of them... Deaths global 10,253-US above a 1,000...Indonesia reporting 1,348 deaths (and 20,000+ new cases indicating very likely limited testing). 

Trends global cases -0,3% deaths -0,6%. Per "region" ;

Europe cases +2%, deaths +11%, 

North America cases +7%, deaths +18% (Canada cases +32%, deaths +107%  (44 to 91 deaths this week)

Asia both cases and deaths -3%, Japan, Philippines see very major increases

South America cases -10%, deaths -13% (French) Guyana/Suriname show strong increase, Brazil cases -0,5%, deaths -6%

Africa cases -6%, deaths -14% South Africa (winter !) cases +19%, deaths +3%,

Oceania cases +30%, deaths +43%, French Polynesia, Australia show increase in cases and deaths...

New Zealand in this list 54 new cases-may include cases stopped at the borders...

If you look at the numbers/spread is Covid more and more a "western disease" ? Most likely very limited testing is not giving enough data for most of the world-but limited testing has been there all of this pandemic...

-Flutrackers latests;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922221-india-gives-emergency-approval-for-world%E2%80%99s-first-covid-19-dna-jab[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922221-india-gives-emergency-approval-for-world%E2%80%99s-first-covid-19-dna-jab ; India’s drug regulator has granted emergency use approval for Zydus Cadila’s COVID-19 vaccine, the world’s first DNA shot against the coronavirus, in adults and children aged 12 years and above.

The approval gives a boost to India’s vaccination programme, which aims to inoculate all eligible adults by December, and will provide the first shot for those below 18, as the country still struggles to contain the virus spread in some states.

... The vaccine, ZyCoV-D, uses a section of genetic material from the virus that gives instructions as either DNA or RNA to make the specific protein that the immune system recognises and responds to.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...vid-19-dna-jab

DJ-Also links elsewhere on this forum. New vaccines-providing much wider protection to most known corona viral infections for much longer-may make a difference. I expect to see vaccinations soon in age group 5-12 y/o...maybe even younger. Delta is hitting young age as hard as other age groups. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922210-cidrap-new-strategies-could-boost-covid-19-vaccination-in-underserved[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/922210-cidrap-new-strategies-could-boost-covid-19-vaccination-in-underserved ; Risk-based strategies and analytics-based phone outreach could help target marginalized and high-risk populations for COVID-19 vaccination, preventing infections and poor outcomes, two new studies suggest.

DJ You could make vaccinations mandatory but some groups simply will not show up even so. Better communications may see more people willing/able to get vaccinated (get the vaccine to the person sometimes may solve the transport problem !)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/723926-flutrackers-h5n6-cumulative-case-list[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/723926-flutrackers-h5n6-cumulative-case-list DJ-Flutrackers following H5N6 flu cases...a next pandemic ? 2016 did see 10 detected cases, 2021 now just put case #11...All of the listed cases were in China often clear bird link.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/921746-haiti-earthquake-%E2%80%93-huge-magnitude-7-quake-strikes-in-caribbean?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/921746-haiti-earthquake-%E2%80%93-huge-magnitude-7-quake-strikes-in-caribbean?view=stream latest; Five days after a powerful earthquake killed at least 2,189 people in Haiti help is trickling in, but struggling people say they need it more quickly.

The poorest country in the Americas is in urgent need of medical, food and sanitation assistance, experts say.

Rescue crews are still digging through rubble in a search for survivors, as the stench of death fills the air.

"We are preparing for a public health disaster," says Nadesha Mijoba of the Haitian Health Foundation.

"The sanitation situation is quite critical... it is our hope that we don't have an outbreak of cholera," Ms Mijoba also warned BBC News.

DJ With increase of pressure on healthcare other diseases/Covid may spread.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922193-ca-in-los-angeles-breakthrough-infections-are-now-30-of-all-new-covid-cases-amid-delta-surge[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922193-ca-in-los-angeles-breakthrough-infections-are-now-30-of-all-new-covid-cases-amid-delta-surge ; In March 2021, when Americans first began hearing about the Delta variant of Covid-19, breakthrough infections among fully-vaccinated Angelenos accounted for just 2% of that month’s case total. By June, when Delta accounted for 50% of all variants in Los Angeles, breakthrough infections among fully-vaccinated residents had risen to 20% of all identified cases. In late July, county officials reported that the Delta variant had overwhelmed all others, accounting for more than 90% of all positive tests analyzed for variants. As a result, the ratio of breakthrough cases increased to 30%, local health officials announced today.

-

Fully-vaccinated people represented only 5% of L.A.’s hospitalized Covid patients in April. By July, that number had risen to 13%. Overall, however, the percentages of vaccinated people who test positive, are hospitalized or die from Covid remain low — all less than 1%. Of the nearly 5.15 million fully-vaccinated county residents as of Tuesday, 27,331 have tested positive. That’s a rate of 0.53%. Only 742 were hospitalized, for a rate of 0.014%. Only 68 have died, which makes for a rate of 0.0013%.

Hospitalization numbers have been steadily rising for more than a month, but Ferrer noted today that between April and mid-August, roughly 25% of the Covid-positive patients in L.A. were actually hospitalized for a reason other than the coronavirus. Their infection was detected only during a routine admission screening...

DJ Vaccines DO protect against severe disease ! But protection may be less in older/vulnarable people and may decrease after months...see also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922127-nearly-60-of-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-in-israel-fully-vaccinated-data-shows[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922127-nearly-60-of-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-in-israel-fully-vaccinated-data-shows latest ; Now, the effects of waning immunity may be beginning to show in Israelis vaccinated in early winter; a preprint published last month by physician Tal Patalon and colleagues at KSM, the research arm of MHS, found that protection from COVID-19 infection during June and July dropped in proportion to the length of time since an individual was vaccinated. People vaccinated in January had a 2.26 times greater risk for a breakthrough infection than those vaccinated in April. (Potential confounders include the fact that the very oldest Israelis, with the weakest immune systems, were vaccinated first.)
...
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021...t-defeat-delta

DJ Often oldest, most vulnarables did get vaccinated first. Sometimes they may end up in hospital testing positive for Covid but not ill because of Covid (yet)...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/922252-sage-open-med-case-rep-longest-reported-case-of-symptomatic-covid-19-reporting-positive-for-over-230-days-in-an-immunocompromised-patient-in-the-united-states[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/922252-sage-open-med-case-rep-longest-reported-case-of-symptomatic-covid-19-reporting-positive-for-over-230-days-in-an-immunocompromised-patient-in-the-united-states ; The average time from onset of symptoms to testing negative SARS-CoV-2 via reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction is roughly 25 days. 

In patients who continually test positive for COVID-19, it is essential to determine precisely which risk factors contribute to the increase in viral shedding duration. We present a case about a 62-year-old man who has persistently tested positive for COVID-19 for more than 230 days. 

We followed his treatment course, in which he had been hospitalized multiple times since the onset of symptoms back in April 2020. We have determined that patients with immunosuppression, especially those taking corticosteroids, are at increased risk of prolonged viral shedding.

 It is essential to continually monitor these immunocompromised patients as they required a greater time period in order to have an appropriate immune response in which antibodies are created.

DJ This man is shedding Covid-virus for 230 days, normal average is 25 days ? (I am NOT an expert !)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/h7n9-research-studies-papers-academia/922235-science-rare-variant-mx1-alleles-increase-human-susceptibility-to-zoonotic-h7n9-influenza-virus[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/h7n9-research-studies-papers-academia/922235-science-rare-variant-mx1-alleles-increase-human-susceptibility-to-zoonotic-h7n9-influenza-virus ; Zoonotic avian influenza A virus (IAV) infections are rare. Sustained transmission of these IAVs between humans has not been observed, suggesting a role for host genes. We used whole-genome sequencing to compare avian IAV H7N9 patients with healthy controls and observed a strong association between H7N9 infection and rare, heterozygous single-nucleotide variants in the MX1 gene. MX1 codes for myxovirus resistance protein A (MxA), an interferon-induced antiviral guanosine triphosphatase known to control IAV infections in transgenic mice. Most of the MxA variants identified lost the ability to inhibit avian IAVs, including H7N9, in transfected human cell lines. Nearly all of the inactive MxA variants exerted a dominant-negative effect on the antiviral function of wild-type MxA, suggesting an MxA null phenotype in heterozygous carriers. Our study provides genetic evidence for a crucial role of the MX1-based antiviral defense in controlling zoonotic IAV infections in humans.

DJ Is this Mx1 in the host(defenses) or in the virus ? 

-A few video's on hurricanes In2thinair [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCXIjJLBjCc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCXIjJLBjCc  and BPEarthwatch [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WD_44yH9zKc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WD_44yH9zKc (both also not experts but doing a good job ! BPEarthwatch allready warning for a next storm in the models end of august)...Hurricanes will worsen this pandemic. Other point is "non-experts" sometimes may have been doing better then some of the experts in this pandemic. (Of course antropologists, medical historians etc. also are a form of experts). 

-[url]https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations[/url] or https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations 32,2% of global population now did get vaccinated once, 24,2% is fully vaccinated...Singapore, Uruguay may be above 70% fully vaccinated in these statistics...Some countries have 60%+ fully vaccinated (18y/o+) without this level of vaccination the picture would be much worse. 

Yes vaccines are not perfect in stopping the spread, but they may have had some effects...Both good (maybe it did stop infection-so viral spread=lower number of new infections) and bad (people feeling safe after vaccination taking more risks..)

-Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FProAvaEOhA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FProAvaEOhA Oasis-My Generation (Who song cover) 

Work in progres !

DJ,

-Some points;

Deer do test-at several US locations-positive for Covid, also hemorrhagic problems show up in US deer...Covid19 does cause clotting problems...So-does Covid19 cause clotting problems in US deer ? Biologists, experts have to give that answer...

Does eating sick/dead Covid19+ deer spread the virus into those eating the infected deer ? (Could be human-if not preparing the deer good enough does this pose a risk ? A hunter may kill a deer and not know that deer has Covid19.)

The "good" part of the story is-it is in the news ! People look into it !

Again another point is me writing this scenario's is NOT to depress but to inform ! To get information, some good discussion, can help against depression ! I believe in honest communications, trying to limit "non-sense"...the best I can. Communication is one of the major things going wrong in this pandemic ! 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/08/21/thousands-people-protest-coronavirus-measures-event-sector[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/08/21/thousands-people-protest-coronavirus-measures-event-sector Here in NL over 80,000 people protested against restrictions on festivals. DJ-I agree with them on the point that football matches, a (royal-and prince bernhard jr. involved IS a big problem !) formula 1 race are allowed-but in NL festivals are not allowed...So people organize parties at other places or go to festivals in other countries...If I had a say in it there would not be matches, festival, racing...I think we have to go for "zero Covid" as the only way out...even if that would mean closing borders, severe travel restrictions for months...Australia, New Zealand, China can do it ! 

[url]https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD[/url] or https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD has a lot of info on zero-covid strategy. "Living with the virus=living with a worsening pandemic"! No economy can benefit from that ! It may take some time before politics/voters get that message...maybe another reason for me to keep doing "scenario's"! 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/08/21/experts-often-intimidated-public-appearance-including-colleagues[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/08/21/experts-often-intimidated-public-appearance-including-colleagues Also in the "climate debate" self-censorship, intimidation, defunding, terrorism is a growing problem. I keep my private life from this forum for safety reasons. I did see deadthreaths earlier in my live and I do not like that !

Political errors are widespread [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/08/britain-wants-a-rerun-of-the-war-on-afghanistan.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/08/britain-wants-a-rerun-of-the-war-on-afghanistan.html restarting a war that has been going on for decades is just one of them. (The taliban may be less extreme then saudi arabia, some IS sponsoring Gulf States sponsored by the west buying their oil...NATO is not in Afghanistan for "emancipating women", "building schools" NATO will try to regain some control to keep Russia-Iran-China out...

New York/US NE later today will face hurricane "Henri"...there will be flooding. We are in the middle of hurricane season. "Grace" I hope did stay south of Mexico City...[url]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/[/url] or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Weekend numbers tend to be lower then average for the week so 32,000+ UK cases is high ! Global trends indicate cases -2%, deaths -0,3% but North America has cases +3%, deaths +19%, Europe has cases +2%, deaths +11%...South America is claiming cases -7%, deaths -13%...

There are worries about the Lambda/Peru variant but Peru cases -4%, deaths +2%. Also a Colombia variant shows up in the news-Colombia cases -26%, deaths -29%...Brazil cases are going up +4%, deaths -6%...North of Brazil-Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname (former part of NL kingdom) see cases/deaths going up...but medical facilities in these countries are limited. 

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922224-us-florida-orlando-winter-park-urges-reduced-water-usage-as-liquid-oxygen-used-to-purify-water-goes-to-covid-patients-august-20-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922224-us-florida-orlando-winter-park-urges-reduced-water-usage-as-liquid-oxygen-used-to-purify-water-goes-to-covid-patients-august-20-2021 ; The city of Orlando and its water utility made an urgent appeal Friday afternoon for residents to cut back sharply on water usage for weeks because of a pandemic-triggered shortage of liquid oxygen used to purify water.

If commercial and residential customers are unable to reduce water usage quickly and sufficiently, Orlando Utilities Commission may issue a system-wide alert for boiling water needed for drinking and cooking. Without reductions in water usage, a boil-water alert would come within a week, utility officials said.

Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer asked residents to immediately stop watering their lawns, washing their cars and using pressure washers. Landscape irrigation consumes about 40% of the water provided by OUC.

DJ Oxygen also has (lots of) other uses-maybe more strict rules "would be welcome". Let me put it in less friendly words...If you think watering the lawn, washing your car, using pressure washers is more important then saving lives maybe you should not be on the street...Cutting of public water supply for a few hours per day to maximize oxygen NOW ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-a-thru-h/childhood-diseases/measles/922282-finland-measles-case-exposes-up-to-150-people-at-turku-university-hospital[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-a-thru-h/childhood-diseases/measles/922282-finland-measles-case-exposes-up-to-150-people-at-turku-university-hospital ; Officials at Turku University Hospital (Tyks) report that a child with measles has potentially exposed up to 150 people in the facility.
Image/geralt

The child visited the hospital’s pediatric unit on Thursday–include the pediatric reception area on Thursday (8/19) between 12.15pm and 2.15pm as well as the Mäntymäen health clinic for infectious diseases on Wednesday (8/18) from 10am to noon.

Tyks said it would contact individuals it deemed at risk. Those concerned about a potential exposure can also call the hospital at 02 313 0263...

DJ If there were people with Covid19 measles showing up may be a deadly combination ! But also-with schools to reopen (yes it is insane ! it is criminal !)-a mix of "child diseases" with Covid variants "may bring surprises" ...Prepare for that ! 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream latest; "The Mississippi Poison Control Center has received increased calls due to livestock or animal formulations of ivermectin taken to prevent or treat COVID-19 infection. Animal drugs are highly concentrated for large animals and can be highly toxic in humans. Do NOT take drugs made for animals in any form," the Mississippi State Department of Health said on social media Friday.
...
"Ivermectin at high doses can be toxic and even deadly in really high concentrations in animal models," Dobbs said.
...
At least one person has been hospitalized because of ivermectin-related toxicity, Dobbs said.

"Please work with your doctor. This is medical treatment," Dobbs said. ... It can be dangerous to get the wrong doses of medication, especially for something that’s meant for a horse or a cow."

DJ-In general discussion this article was posted. If Ivermectin was that good it would have shown itself ! Big Pharma may be making more "cents then sense" but also would have found a way to make $$$$ out of Ivermectin ! NEVER use medical drugs without medical advice/back up !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/australia-2019-ncov/922266-thousands-take-to-melbourne%E2%80%99s-streets-as-part-of-anti-lockdown-protest[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/australia-2019-ncov/922266-thousands-take-to-melbourne%E2%80%99s-streets-as-part-of-anti-lockdown-protest ; Thousands take to Melbourne’s streets as part of anti-lockdown protest
Several police officers have been taken to hospital, some with broken limbs and cuts to the neck, after wild scenes erupted in Melbourne as thousands of anti-lockdown protesters took to the streets in defiance of public health orders.

DJ [url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 There are very good experts warning-trying to give good info...frustrated by "embedded media like the bbc" spreading non-sense on "living with the virus", theguardian (of what ?) asking is it better to get Covid then the vaccine....

In Dutch there is a saying "The shore has to stop the ship" (De wal moet het schip keren). By now bad politics, bad communications, bad informed majorities mean this pandemic-like climate change-will get worse..."Change what you can not accept and accept that what you can not change-and learn to see where the limits are"...In other words; "can't fix stupid"....

I limit my time on this pandemic-dive my into (online) history books ! Google-books also has very special old books...Live is balancing.

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20DxL8KhvgA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20DxL8KhvgA  ; Pandemic Optimism ; (from under the video)

Delta infections after two vaccine doses had similar peak levels of virus to those in unvaccinated people 

Two doses of either vaccine, same level of protection against infection as natural infection 

Natural infection followed by vaccination, even more protection than vaccination alone After four to five months, effectiveness of these two vaccines similar 

The time between doses does not affect effectiveness in preventing new infections 

Now Levels of immunity in the community Implications for vaccination in children 

Should we use virus or booster shots to top up immunity in adults? 

Prof Eleanor Riley, immunologist, University of Edinburgh ; We could be digging ourselves into a hole, for a very long time, where we think we can only keep Covid away by boosting every year 

Prof Adam Finn, government vaccine adviser Over-vaccinating people when other parts of the world had none a bit insane, it's not just inequitable, it's stupid 

-

In the case of breakthrough infection or reinfection Asymptomatic, low levels of antibodies Symptomatic or ill, higher levels of antibodies 

Duration of immunity ;

Natural infection, no vaccination Antibody to the receptor binding domain, active RBD-specific memory B cells, active and relatively stable between 6 and 12 months after infection Vaccination further increases all components of the humoral response 

The data suggest that immunity in convalescent individuals will be very long lasting and that convalescent individuals who receive available mRNA vaccines will produce antibodies and memory B cells that should be protective against circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants. 

-

Do children need vaccinating at all, or does a lifetime of ongoing exposures build a good immune defence?  

In children, argument had already been won 40-50% have already been infected and most weren't ill or particularly ill 

Prof Eleanor Riley, immunologist, University of Edinburgh Using vaccines to take the edge off Covid, followed by infection, to broaden the immune response 

We really need to consider, are we just frightening people rather than giving them the confidence to get on with their lives? We're close to just worrying people now.
DJ The picture Dr.J.C. presents is "living with the virus"-I totally disagree with that view. But some experts defend that idea. Other experts claim zero-Covid is the only strategy-I (DJ-non expert) agree with that view...

I did see some twitter-info on a baby just a few weeks old on ICU for Covid...and I hate that ! I think Dr.J.C. is-again-to optimistic. If there are "signs of hope" it may be in better treatment, vaccines, strategies...NOT "living with the virus will bring herd-immunity with limited damage because of vaccines"...

But who am I ...

-Music; Music was my first love...and it will be my last. Music of the future and music of the past...Johnj Miles [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gb6XtyFNawM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gb6XtyFNawM TopPop (NL-TV) 1976 !

The hemorrhagic disease in deer has been around for over a hundred years in the US and it's passed by midge bites between the deer. It's not thought that eating an infected deer will pass it on to humans but it's advised that you cook all venison thoroughly. 

It makes me wonder if Covid can spread between people from mosquito bites?

KiwiMum-thanks for that info on deer. There are still lots of other diseases widespread-causing all kind of symptoms...so symptoms that may look like possible related to Covid may have nothing to do with Covid...(I do not want to write non-sense; YES deer in the US test positive for Covid, YES there are blood disorders killing deer in the US but they may be unrelated untill proven otherwise !)

DJ

Another point; [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-assange-described-decade-ago-how-endless-afghan-war-was-engineered-transnational[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-assange-described-decade-ago-how-endless-afghan-war-was-engineered-transnational If you invested 10,000$/€ in average US shares in 2001 it would now be worth over 61,000 $/€ - If you invested that money in war-shares it would be 97,000 $/€+...Was the Afghan War for profit of shareholders ? 

The Intercept‘s Jon Schwarz examined returns on stocks of the five biggest defense contractors: Boeing, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics.

Schwarz found that a $10,000 investment in stock evenly split across those five companies on the day in 2001 that then-President Georg W. Bush signed the authorization preceding the US invasion would be worth $97,295 this week, not adjusted for inflation, taxes, or fees.

DJ No doubt you can think of a Big Pharma "basket" of shares going up because of this pandemic...Making profit out of war, climate collapse, pandemics may not help solving those problems !

See also [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wikileaks-reviews-few-its-greatest-hits-leaks-afghanistan[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wikileaks-reviews-few-its-greatest-hits-leaks-afghanistan ; The CIA attempted to blunt criticism of the US 'endless' occupation by creating propaganda that emphasized feminism for "targeted manipulation of public opinion"...

DJ (somehow techno-problem...) NATO fighting for womens rights, gay rights, children going to school, making this world a better place...NATO is "your favorite charity" if you believe this propaganda ! NATO still is in Afghanistan (and involved in fighting north of Kabul via "moderate rebels") to stop Russia-Iran-China getting better connected...

Dealing with this pandemic is NOT a global priority...

-Numbers-daily numbers limited because of the weekend-still UK over 32,000+ new cases ! That is a lot !!! Trends are confusing-UK cases +14%, deaths +9%...US cases -7%, deaths +14%...Israel cases +23%, deaths +29%...DJ-I think Israel may be a good indicator for where a lot of other western countries may find themselves next month...a few weeks ahead of most of us...

NL cases +5%, deaths +10% Germany cases +57%, deaths +14% a lot of German cases may be related with travel from NL...Schools will reopen today in some parts of Europe...within a few weeks all schools are supposed to have started...I expect a high number of children getting ill, spreading the virus further in the household-grand parents, care centers etc...this wave gets another (avoidable) boost !

New Zealand now has 107 cases...(worldometer still at 97...). There was hope they detected the first cases in time to stop the spread...Australia cases +78% last week 2,768-this week 4,925 deaths last week 17-this week 24 so +41%...

Statistics may give an insight on how this pandemic is developing...where cases are going up, deaths are going up...As far as I have info/time Delta is the main factor worldwide...

-Flutrackers;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021?view=stream latest DJ-Cases +13,5%, deaths +8,2% (within 28 days of positive test...real numbers are much higher), hospital admissions +6,6% testing going down ! -1,1%....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/845505-us-cdc-covidview-2020-2021-not-offered-for-exactness-offered-for-trend-analysis-only?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/845505-us-cdc-covidview-2020-2021-not-offered-for-exactness-offered-for-trend-analysis-only?view=stream latest...lots of info...Delta (=B1.617.2)=86,1% Delta+/AY.3=12,3% (together 98,4%...Delta+ may be increasing a little bit...no doubt to little testing/sequencing may hide a lot of info ! Lambda may show up more in California...Dr.Been claimed a few weeks ago...so regional differences..sequencing taking to much time). 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922309-west-africa-covid-19-deaths-surge-amid-ebola-and-other-outbreaks[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/922309-west-africa-covid-19-deaths-surge-amid-ebola-and-other-outbreaks ; West Africa has recorded its highest number of COVID-19 deaths since the pandemic began as several countries grapple with outbreaks of cholera, Ebola Virus Disease and Marburg Virus Disease that threaten to further strain the already stretched emergency response capacity in the region.

COVID-19 fatalities in West Africa over the past four weeks increased by 193% from 348 in the previous four weeks to 1018 in the week ending on 15 August. Although the case fatality ratio, or the proportion of people diagnosed with the disease who have died, stands at 1.4%—below the continental average of 2.5%—it is higher than the previous two waves in the sub-region, a sign that health systems are feeling the strain of a heavy caseload. While new cases in West Africa have dropped this week, they were surging for eight consecutive weeks.

DJ Deaths could go up simply because hospital capacity, oxygen is running out...no more staff...The more diseases the greater the risk for all kind of bizarre mixes/new diseases...both in human and non-human-hosts...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922304-fully-vaccinated-oregon-woman-dies-1-day-after-covid-19-diagnosis-at-least-10-fully-vaccinated-people-died-of-covid-19-in-oregon-in-july[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/922304-fully-vaccinated-oregon-woman-dies-1-day-after-covid-19-diagnosis-at-least-10-fully-vaccinated-people-died-of-covid-19-in-oregon-in-july ; Across the state of Oregon, 55 people died of COVID-19 in July. At least 10 of those deaths involved people who were fully vaccinated against the virus.

Dr. Melissa Sutton, medical director for respiratory viral pathogens at Oregon Health Authority, said data from July showed that a higher percentage of vaccinated people died that month compared to previous months. However, she said it is too early to say whether it represents a new trend...

DJ This form of (mis)communication may send a signal "vaccines do not work"  while vaccines-for now-do a very good job in protecting against severe disease ! Without vaccines the number of people dying proberbly would be 20x higher with the same lack of restrictions ! 

To get out of this crisis you need BOTH !!!! Vaccines AND restrictions ! It is WRONG !!! to claim vaccines provide room for reopening (in Australia reopening at 70% vaccination...opening borders at 80% vaccination shows the government does NOT get the message !

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/covid-19-cases-rising-within-homeless-population[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/covid-19-cases-rising-within-homeless-population ; 

“People experiencing homelessness are at high risk of severe COVID-19 disease due to underlying health conditions, age, or both,” Los Angeles County Director of Public Health Barbara Ferrer said in an Aug. 18 statement.

“As we partner with others to reach people experiencing homelessness that are not yet vaccinated, layering protection at programs serving this population is critical.”

DJ Of course ZeroHedge likes to call Covid CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus...not helping are real...

-No new video's [url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing Vaccines offer less protection due to both waning immunity over time AND Delta-variant better in evading immunity...

[url]https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD[/url] or https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD , [url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 also (a.o.) with good info !

DJ; "Is there no hope ?"-There is no hope when you give up hope ! "Hopium" may be needed to get through crises ! "Enjoy the moment" a friendly word, a smile, sun shine...crazy dog trying to catch its tail...

Music ; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZS7PIqTw5g[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZS7PIqTw5g Safe In My Garden-Mamas & Papas...during the Vietnam War...

ViQueen24-thanks for the info....Deer testing positive for Covid19 and deers with hemorrhagic issues may be totally unrelated ? (Also by region ?) Still interesting story to follow...

[url]https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/08/18/deer-tested-positive-covid-antibodies-usda-study/8188718002/[/url] or https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/08/18/deer-tested-positive-covid-antibodies-usda-study/8188718002/ ;

link to [url]https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animal_health/one_health/downloads/qa-covid-white-tailed-deer-study.pdf[/url] or https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animal_health/one_health/downloads/qa-covid-white-tailed-deer-study.pdf ; Results of the study indicate that certain white-tailed deer populations in Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania were exposed to SARS-CoV-2.

DJ Hemorrhagic fever in US deer was found [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epizootic_hemorrhagic_disease[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epizootic_hemorrhagic_disease ; It is an infectious, and sometimes fatal, virus that is characterized by extensive hemorrhages, and is found throughout the United States. Large-scale outbreaks in wild ruminants affect livestock and the production industry.^[3] EHD has been found in some domestic ruminants and many species of deer including white-tailed deer, mule deer, and pronghorn antelope.^[4] Seropositive black-tailed deer, fallow deer, red deer, wapiti, and roe deer have also been found, which essentially means that they were exposed to the disease at some time in the past, but may not be involved in transmission. Outbreaks of EHD have been reported in cattle, although it is rare for them to develop disease or die. Sheep may develop clinical signs; however, this is also rare.^[2] EHD is often called bluetongue, but this is incorrect. Bluetongue virus is closely related to EHDV, and has similar clinical signs, but it is a different disease. Bluetongue is a serious disease in cattle, as well as other ruminants, and can have a significant effect on international trade. Testing at animal health laboratories is necessary to distinguish between the viruses that cause bluetongue and EHD.

-

The distribution of EHD depends greatly on the distribution and abundance of the biting midge (Culicoides variipennis), the level of existing immunity in deer, and the genetic variations in susceptibility.^[5] EHD is found in North America, Australia, Asia, and Africa. Seropositive animals have also been found in South America. It occurs most often in the southern United States, although its distribution is not uniform.^[6] In the south, the disease is characterized as frequent and mild, whereas in the north, the disease is characterized as infrequent, severe, and capable of high mortality.^[5] EHD can occur throughout Indiana. Outbreaks in Indiana of the disease can be characterized by both significant outbreaks that occur on a 5-10 year cycle that affect the entire state and smaller outbreaks that may only involve a few counties.

DJ....Does this rule out deer testing positive for Covid showing similar symptoms ? It has so far not been detected...That deer did not test positive for Covid outside the US may have to do with not testing deer...

Even more complicating [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/07/articles/animals/other-animals/sars-cov-2-in-deer/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/07/articles/animals/other-animals/sars-cov-2-in-deer/ ; The antibody testing only gives us a historical indication of previous exposure to the virus (or, potentially, a virus that induces similar antibodies that cross-react with the test).

DJ-It may even be a sort of "false positive" - testing reacting to a virus that may have enough in common with Covid19...but still be different (PCR-testing as far as I known-only looks at three segments of the 29,000+ in the Covid-viral RNA...-So deer testing positive for Covid would indicate-I think-sequencing ?). From this july 28 article;

Only 1/241 samples collected from deer before the COVID-19 pandemic began were positive. That was presumably a false positive result (no test is perfect, so typically we’d be quite happy with less than 1% false positives).  Less than 1% positive before the pandemic and 33% positive during the pandemic after would support true infection having occurred in these deer populations.

The number raises concerns for me.  The press release states that “the finding that wild white-tailed deer have been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 is not unexpected given that white-tailed deer are susceptible to the virus, are abundant in the United States, often come into close contact with people, and that, more than 114 million Americans are estimated to have been infected with COVID-19, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). ”

• All true, and good reasons to investigate exposure in deer populations. However, 33% is very high, given the limited direct contact between people and deer. Deer would have to be very susceptible and very effectively able to transmit the virus widely within the deer population for 33% to be infected.

It’s very interesting info, but more details are needed. It could be a game-changer, or a testing issue. That needs to be sorted out.  Regardless, it’s a good One Health study that’s needed to help understand the ecology of this virus and potential risks.

DJ The percentage-33%-is very high ! Yes deer come in contact with humans-but if that would result in such a high level of positive cases it would be very alarming !!! (So I tend to think tests may be false positives-no sequencing was done ? ...). The USDA-Aphis study was held in 2020-ended march 2021-so before Delta variant showed up...

Are there such studies in the UK, Europe, Asia, Africa ? If not why not ? 

From the USDA study; Scientists at APHIS’ National Wildlife Research Center used a commercially available SARS-CoV-2 antibody screening test known to be highly specific (accurate) for use in other species. However, it has not been validated on deer. To help reduce concerns that the commercial test may have detected antibodies to another virus (also known as cross-reacting), we also tested a subset of samples at APHIS’ National Veterinary Services Laboratories in Ames, IA, using a different test specific to SARS-CoV-2. Both analyses resulted in identical findings.

DJ So it looks like the USDA did their best to rule out false positives...

From the USDA on eating deer-meat; 

Is hunter-harvested game meat safe to eat?

There is no evidence that people can get COVID-19 by preparing or eating meat from an animal infected with SARS-CoV-2, including wild game meat hunted in the United States. However, hunters can get infected with many other diseases when processing or eating game. Hunters should always practice good hygiene when processing animals by following these food safety recommendations:

• Do not allow contact between wildlife and domestic animals, including pets and hunting dogs.

• Do not harvest animals that appear sick or are found dead.

etc. 

DJ...the press release was august 2021 (published july). 

[url]http://en.people.cn/n3/2021/0823/c90000-9886697.html[/url] or http://en.people.cn/n3/2021/0823/c90000-9886697.html from China; While the World Health Organization (WHO) is planning its next phase of COVID-19 origins study, China has made it clear that the next-phase study should be carried out in multiple places worldwide, including places outside China where samples of human and animal before the Wuhan outbreak were tested positive for COVID-19.

DJ From the USDA study; "We detected SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in only 1 of the 143 samples collected before January 2020 (pre-COVID-19 pandemic in people). The single sample was at the minimum threshold of detection and was likely a false positive. This low-level detection is well within the expected false positive rate of the test used."

Could it be Covid-19 started earlier in deer ? Could it be we may be looking at the wrong places for answers ? 

The "official" (western) story links Covid19 to Wuhan-China end of 2019...Bet there are some detections in (blood, sewage-samples) Europe from earlier in 2019...China claims the virus may have been imported...[url]https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29508550/[/url] or https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29508550/ ; Bovine coronavirus (BCoV) is a causative agent of respiratory and enteric diseases in cattle and calves. BCoV infection was also evident in captive wild ruminants. Recently, water deer are recognized as the most common wildlife to approach farmhouses and livestock barns in Korea. Therefore, we investigated 77 nasal swab samples from non-captive wild water deer (Hydropotes inermis) between November 2016 and September 2017 and identified three samples positive for coronavirus, indicating potential for respiratory shedding. The full genomic sequences of the water deer coronavirus were closely related to BCoV (>98%). Therefore, effective biosecurity system in bovine farms would be necessary to prevent contact between farm ruminants and free-ranging wild water deer.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_deer[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_deer ; The water deer (Hydropotes inermis) is a small deer superficially more similar to a musk deer than a true deer. Native to China and Korea, there are two subspecies: the Chinese water deer (Hydropotes inermis inermis) and the Korean water deer (Hydropotes inermis argyropus).

So I am finding more questions then answers...Science would excluded deers as starters of this pandemic-bovine coronavirus (maybe related to the "Russian Flu pandemic in 1890 ?) 

[url]https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1751-7915.13889[/url] or https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1751-7915.13889 ; 

Summary

DJ (july 13-2021 publication). Just asking questions...